DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:29 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
.


This entire post ignores the fact that MU has a JBA with QF.

And the fact that it's IIRC a JV, which means for flights between China and Australia QF/MU are effectively a single carrier, and QF has quite an extensive FFP partnership with MU.

Michael


Yep. Both of those things. If indeed DL wanted to buy into VA, they would be better off (and there's no reason to think that they couldn't) buying the shares directly rather than faffing about with back door deals via MU or any other partner. Personally, I'd quite like to see DL do just that, otherwise sadly I think their own LAX-SYD service will have a finite life.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:36 pm

The only way VA is ever going to be truly successful is when only one airline owns it because there’s too many conflicting interests. DL buying HNA’s share won’t solve VA’s problems, it’ll just create new ones.
I'm that bad type.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:48 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas will take delivery of 3 787-9's this year, being LN921, LN929 and LN941


Assume that's this calendar year - so Nov/ Dec 2019 (in QFs 2020 financial year)
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:17 am

getluv wrote:
The only way VA is ever going to be truly successful is when only one airline owns it because there’s too many conflicting interests. DL buying HNA’s share won’t solve VA’s problems, it’ll just create new ones.


Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - on the one hand it's replacing one airline shareholder with another, on the other hand it's hard to know whether DL would bring anything (either positive or negative) to VA that HU doesn't already. DL does, though, have a reputation for turning around struggling airlines - Aeromexico, Gol, Virgin Atlantic are the obvious ones, but they also mentored Garuda through its transformation and they've bid with the state-owned railway corporation to takeover Alitalia.

There's also the suggestion upthread that EY will look to sell their stake in VA later this year - I don't know the original source of that, nor how reliable that information is, but if it is true then DL may well look to buy out both EY and HU. That would make things hugely less complicated, and would free VA from two significant shareholders who are both struggling themselves.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:49 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
getluv wrote:
The only way VA is ever going to be truly successful is when only one airline owns it because there’s too many conflicting interests. DL buying HNA’s share won’t solve VA’s problems, it’ll just create new ones.


Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - on the one hand it's replacing one airline shareholder with another, on the other hand it's hard to know whether DL would bring anything (either positive or negative) to VA that HU doesn't already. DL does, though, have a reputation for turning around struggling airlines - Aeromexico, Gol, Virgin Atlantic are the obvious ones, but they also mentored Garuda through its transformation and they've bid with the state-owned railway corporation to takeover Alitalia.

There's also the suggestion upthread that EY will look to sell their stake in VA later this year - I don't know the original source of that, nor how reliable that information is, but if it is true then DL may well look to buy out both EY and HU. That would make things hugely less complicated, and would free VA from two significant shareholders who are both struggling themselves.


Etihad has never said they want to exit VA; there has been some speculation that they could if they were desperate for cash but that is all. Likewise there was speculation that HNA could also look to exit though, once again, nothing is formal but they are probably in a more desperate situation financially.

The issue for existing shareholders is that taking out any of the other existing major shareholders would involve a formal takeover offer so the acquirer would have to be prepared to, in theory, acquire all shares. Of course, the existing major shareholders may agree to all participate in a takeover process taking out an exiting major holder as well as any minor shareholders. Such a process would also trigger the long discussed delisting of VA from the ASX.

I personally believe that the writedown of accumulated tax losses at 30/6/18 was the beginning of a balance sheet clean-up prior to delisting. Nothing has happened in the meantime so maybe I am incorrect.

The irony for any exiting major shareholder is that, after a few years of significant losses and restructuring, VA looks like it is about to enter a period of sustained profits.with the domestic business booming and TT and international also looking like they are about to become profitable If TT mirrors experience elsewhere, including JQ, once a LCC is profitable, it quickly generates serious profits.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:38 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas will take delivery of 3 787-9's this year, being LN921, LN929 and LN941

Going off this they will all be delivered in Q4 over a 6-8 week period

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19


So means we should hear where these ones will be used soon?

Do we think they are going to europe or usa?
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:58 am

tullamarine wrote:
The issue for existing shareholders is that taking out any of the other existing major shareholders would involve a formal takeover offer so the acquirer would have to be prepared to, in theory, acquire all shares. Of course, the existing major shareholders may agree to all participate in a takeover process taking out an exiting major holder as well as any minor shareholders. Such a process would also trigger the long discussed delisting of VA from the ASX..


Any delisting also opens up the issue of VAInt and TigerInt again.

Exactly who are the 50% domestic owners of this business, who is looking after these interests (at on point there was a separate board, but mention of it seems to have disappeared), and what are its financials and loan arrangements with VAH.
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:58 am

waoz1 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas will take delivery of 3 787-9's this year, being LN921, LN929 and LN941

Going off this they will all be delivered in Q4 over a 6-8 week period

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19


So means we should hear where these ones will be used soon?

Do we think they are going to europe or usa?


I would think they will be used to replace the 744s on SYD-SFO and SYD-SCL. My guess is that SYD-JNB will be the last long haul 744 route. The remaining 744 international routes (HND and HNL) can easily be replaced with 333s.

Re Europe - There are not enough frames in the fleet or on order to expand to new destinations in 2019.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:03 am

Exactly. There are 9 747s to leave the fleet in the next couple of years. Not going to be significant number of new destinations added in this time.

SCL and JNB also need CASA ETOPS approvals.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:09 am

Looks like VA is handing its BNE-POM-BNE flying to Alliance Airlines
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:20 am

vhebb wrote:
Looks like VA is handing its BNE-POM-BNE flying to Alliance Airlines


That was announced about a month or two ago
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:43 am

VH-EBC must be flying with an issue as its avoiding flying over the bight, taking a tour over northern SA to get to SYD/MEL from PER
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:08 am

The SQ pilot who failed an alcohol test on a SQ MEL-WLG-MEL flight last September has been given the sack

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... e-11108132
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smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:37 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas will take delivery of 3 787-9's this year, being LN921, LN929 and LN941

Going off this they will all be delivered in Q4 over a 6-8 week period

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19


Exciting!! I wonder where they will end up sending them! Should know in a few months I’d imagine.

How many 789 frames does the HKG services currently use up from SYD/MEL/BNE?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:44 am

smi0006 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas will take delivery of 3 787-9's this year, being LN921, LN929 and LN941

Going off this they will all be delivered in Q4 over a 6-8 week period

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19


Exciting!! I wonder where they will end up sending them! Should know in a few months I’d imagine.

How many 789 frames does the HKG services currently use up from SYD/MEL/BNE?


Its only using one, BNE and MEL operate on different dates till the end of March when it will operate daily on SYD-HKG

I have always had the opinion the 6 789's will all be delivered in the 2019-2020 financial year. Given QF have said the 744's will be gone by the end of 2020 I would expect another top up order for a few more 789's for 2020/2021 announced later this year. If this plays out this way there is a possibility of 1 new route either PER-CDG or another US route
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ozglobal
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:12 am

ClassicLover wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
I live in Paris and have, due to QFF status, been holding out for QF to come back after they dropped the EK/DXB connections with QF1 and 9 A380 services. I just came back from Australia on the QF/AF code share from MEL and SIN. I was put off this at first as the QF website calculates virtually no points or status credits for the longer AF (14hr) leg. After discussion with QFF centre and CSM on the flight, they are adamant that I will receive full status and points credit. We shall see in the next two weeks or so if the full credit arrives. If so, this AF / QF codeshare works well for me, as AF's new J is top notch and increasingly QF have the new J or if an A380 I can use points for an upgrade to F. 787-9 BNE-PER-CDG may or may not be an improvement.


Were you on QF flight numbers for the Air France flight? If so, as far as I am aware, the information you have been given by the call centre and the CSM is correct. You should earn full Qantas points and status credits.


Yes. QF flight number for the AF SIN-CDG leg. And good news: I can can confirm: Full point with 100% platinum uplift and full status credits were granted. Therefore, this AF/QF code share will be my new go-to: added bonus: best terminals and lounges on the CDG side with AF AND on the Oz side with QF. In SIN, I have several lounge choices.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
ozglobal
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:23 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
ozglobal wrote:
mh124 wrote:

Thanks.
Agree the relationship between the airport and the airline seems particularly terrible right now. I guess they are both at an inflection point, and whatever gets agreed will have significant consequences.
The only thing i don't get - is given qantas have the current terminal for at least 5 or so years (likely more) and they have their own international terminal thanks to the 14 million contribution from wa taxpayers (and the federal govt coming on board to provide immi and customs staff), nothing should be stopping them from announcing CDG if thats what they actually want to do? They have the set up that they want, at least for the medium term. If they didn't launch CDG because the numbers didn't work out that would be understandable. But if the real motivations were that they wanted to play hardball with the airport, well that's a very bad outcome for WA taxpayers.
As an aside, I wouldn't have thought they would launch CDG until peak season - so that would be the 2020 northern summer...so that gives them at least some time.


I live in Paris and have, due to QFF status, been holding out for QF to come back after they dropped the EK/DXB connections with QF1 and 9 A380 services. I just came back from Australia on the QF/AF code share from MEL and SIN. I was put off this at first as the QF website calculates virtually no points or status credits for the longer AF (14hr) leg. After discussion with QFF centre and CSM on the flight, they are adamant that I will receive full status and points credit. We shall see in the next two weeks or so if the full credit arrives. If so, this AF / QF codeshare works well for me, as AF's new J is top notch and increasingly QF have the new J or if an A380 I can use points for an upgrade to F. 787-9 BNE-PER-CDG may or may not be an improvement.


Qantas Frequent Flyer points earning is based on the marketing carrier and not the operating carrier. If a flight is ticketed with a QF flight number then it earns 100% points, status credits and status bonus, and counts towards loyalty bonus, PlatinumOne etc. This is irrespective of who the operating carrier is. The inverse is also true, a Qantas flight ticketed with a CZ flight number will earn nada even though you are flying on a Qantas plane.

So the short answer is that if you booked the CDG-SIN flight as QF4222 then you are home and hosed, but if you booked it as AF256 then you'll earn bugger all.


Thanks for the answer. I booked QF4222 and for the reasons you outline, I have now received all points and status credits per QFF. The problem is that the QF booking site simulates QF/AF codesshares points calculations currently as if the flights are AF marketed and NOT QF marketed. I have raised the issue with them and they are looking into it.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
FlapsOne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:41 pm

Hi. I’m just wondering if anyone can provide a summary of how Qantas group operations to, from and within Australia look like these days compared to when JQ was conceived. Has one grown more than the other, has QF shrunk or switched flights to JQ and how does the future look for the group in terms of size?
 
TN486
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:50 pm

qf789 wrote:
VH-EBC must be flying with an issue as its avoiding flying over the bight, taking a tour over northern SA to get to SYD/MEL from PER

currently doing QF583 SYD-PER and travelling north of ADL. Other SYD-PER flights taking a more southerly routing.
remember the t shirt "I own an airline"on the front - "qantas" on the back
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:11 pm

DeltaB717 wrote:
getluv wrote:
The only way VA is ever going to be truly successful is when only one airline owns it because there’s too many conflicting interests. DL buying HNA’s share won’t solve VA’s problems, it’ll just create new ones.


Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - on the one hand it's replacing one airline shareholder with another, on the other hand it's hard to know whether DL would bring anything (either positive or negative) to VA that HU doesn't already. DL does, though, have a reputation for turning around struggling airlines - Aeromexico, Gol, Virgin Atlantic are the obvious ones, but they also mentored Garuda through its transformation and they've bid with the state-owned railway corporation to takeover Alitalia.

There's also the suggestion upthread that EY will look to sell their stake in VA later this year - I don't know the original source of that, nor how reliable that information is, but if it is true then DL may well look to buy out both EY and HU. That would make things hugely less complicated, and would free VA from two significant shareholders who are both struggling themselves.


You must live in a weird DL fanboy world. Aeromexico, Gol and Virgin Atlantic don’t have four major shareholders owning ~20% of the airline, whom each have a strategic reason to keep their ownership.

There’s no way SQ and EY are just going to let DL just come in and flex its muscle.
I'm that bad type.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:08 am

Interesting piece regarding AA/QF JV, looking at this there are multiple routes being looked at, probably seasonal

Image

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1083871007335768064
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IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:46 am

Seasonal flying makes sense.

Just as AA’s AKL-LAX services have been operated seasonally, taking on some MEL-LAX and/or BNE-LAX flying over the peak period would likely offer sine opportunities.

It will be interesting to see how QF manage their 789 maintenance moving forward, as a consideration appears to have been cycling the fleet through LAX to complete some parts of this process. It was said to be one of the reasons that MEL-SFO is not flying 6 x weekly now, as they had to keep the additional 2 x weekly MEL-LAX flights to conduct this.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:13 am

Hey guys,
Some predictions to mull over:
- QF to order an additional 3 or 4 787s within the next twelve months
- Project Sunrise (IF it goes ahead...) to be eight firm, 4-6 options and 4-6 purchase rights of the winning jet : with at least one other airline likely to quickly announce a small order (4-6?) of the winning type as well for ULH flights, including to Australia...
- QF announces its next US destination (Chicago? Seattle?) then surprises all with a second new route towards the end of the year that's just a bit 'left of the centre' but highlights QF's new-found nimbleness...
- QF reveals yet another themed colourscheme, and starts publicising plans for the 747's retirement and QF centenary celebrations (some form of air 'show' as one part but not in the traditional Avalon format?)
- QF to delay its future narrow body replacement plans until Project Sunrise is locked in and plans for MoMs become clearer. Some (notably a.netter RJMAZ) have speculated that the 737-800 could well be replaced purely by MoMs and A220s....
- VA to firm up another four 'later delivery' MAXs as -10s, and reveal that the first twelve (at least) of its forty firm MAXs will be -8s. It's 'Perth Product' narrow body business class won't see the light of day in 2019 at least....
- speculation to commence over a possible 'marketing merger' of VA's Tigerair and SQ's Scoot, with the latter brand retained to better take on the Jetstar group across Asia/Pacific ... This will be conditional on SQ 'winning' the long game of VA shareholding and relegating EY and HNA to either 'silent partner' minority stakes or removing them altogether from the shareholder registry : what part Delta will have, if at all, is a mystery to my crystal ball at this stage....
- Air New Zealand to order the A350, and privately have a hissy fit over VA and SQ getting closer and closer
- Turkish and Ethiopian to - again - announce their interest in serving Australia, but this time at least one of them actually firms up their plans...
- another ME airline looks at resuming services to Australia...
- BA announce serious interest in resuming flights to Melbourne... And possibly even firm plans are finalised while Virgin Atlantic's supposed interest in nonstop LHR-Perth is never heard of again...
- Canberra finally attracts an Auckland service
- REX starts publicly speculating on life after the 340 ...
- Qatar to publicly state interest in buying into Australian aviation (and no, I don't mean the esteemed magazine lol) triggering media debate and speculation
- China to have some reorganisation of its airline sector which will then flow on to impact alliances and JV/codeshares : could we see a dramatic warming between old frenemies QF and CX - first signs are already there if you think about it!
There you go.... Some Saturday night thoughts
Cheers
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:36 pm

As per the Emirates 2019 schedule changes thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1412903

SYD gets reduced to 3x daily with the BKK (EK 418/419) one stop service axed.

PER gets reduced to 1x daily.
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:19 pm

I guess we are seeing a capacity correction by the ME3 in Australia, there was too much capacity and they are pulling back a little; PER has seen its frequency to the Middle East halved, seems like EK couldn't make the second daily work even with EY pulling out earlier. PER will get stronger in East Asia, India and Europe though.

Also massive capacity cuts on the Thailand-Australia font, TG has already taken out x10 weekly flights out of Australia and EK will further reduce the number of flights by cancelling its daily SYD-BKK service.

Thailand-Australia Routes:
Sydney-Bangkok: TG (7), QF (7)
Sydney-Phuket: JQ (3)
Melbourne-Bangkok: TG (11), JQ (3)
Melbourne-Phuket: JQ (4)
Brisbane-Bangkok: TG (4)
Perth-Bangkok: TG (7)
A world built upon connectivity.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:05 am

With EK off the BKK route and TG already reduced SYD-BKK, if QF had any spare A330 capacity, replacing JQ on the MEL-BKK could work, similar to when QF replaced JQ on the MEL- NRT.

JQ could then increase SGN flying which seems to be performing well.
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:44 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
As per the Emirates 2019 schedule changes thread: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... &t=1412903

SYD gets reduced to 3x daily with the BKK (EK 418/419) one stop service axed.

PER gets reduced to 1x daily.


Not surprised
Interestingly I just had friends fly from uk, they always and I mean alway fly ex or qr this time they said with the price and the flight times sq was the better option. Qf9/10 might be starting to bite with its success could it mean QF strike with CDG service?

Buggar for frequent flyers
Last edited by waoz1 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:50 am

Curious as to where Alan Joyce has said the A220 could replace some of the 738 fleet? I’ve certainly read about the 797MOM potentially replacing some of the 737/A330 fleet.

So a fleet in 2030 of something like
Project sunrise
787-9/10
797
A220

With the last A380’s, A330’s and 738’s in the process of leaving.
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:22 am

Spat between PAPL and QF continues
Interesting

"Qantas group executive for government affairs Andrew Parker told an inquiry into the economic regulation of airports that “no one benefits” from the dispute over aeronautical fees.

He said Perth Airport’s actions last year had “already put WA’s tourism and economic growth at risk”. He accused the airport of:

BLOCKING Qantas’ proposed Auckland-Perth-Johannesburg service, which would have seen an extra 4000 international seats per week in WA.

HINDERING further expansion of the Perth Hub which would otherwise facilitate the addition of new direct flights to Europe.

JEOPARDISING the airline’s ability to expand domestic and regional connections to Perth."


https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881071426z
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:47 am

waoz1 wrote:
Spat between PAPL and QF continues
Interesting

"Qantas group executive for government affairs Andrew Parker told an inquiry into the economic regulation of airports that “no one benefits” from the dispute over aeronautical fees.

He said Perth Airport’s actions last year had “already put WA’s tourism and economic growth at risk”. He accused the airport of:

BLOCKING Qantas’ proposed Auckland-Perth-Johannesburg service, which would have seen an extra 4000 international seats per week in WA.

HINDERING further expansion of the Perth Hub which would otherwise facilitate the addition of new direct flights to Europe.

JEOPARDISING the airline’s ability to expand domestic and regional connections to Perth."


https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881071426z


There really isn’t to much point in an AKL-PER-JNB service at the moment. AKL-PER should do ok, but targeting South Africa from New Zealand isn’t worth the time.

The New Zealand and South African government are both having an spat over visa.
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:52 am

zkncj wrote:
There really isn’t to much point in an AKL-PER-JNB service at the moment. AKL-PER should do ok, but targeting South Africa from New Zealand isn’t worth the time.

The New Zealand and South African government are both having an spat over visa.


That is the aircraft usage/routing. From a passenger perspective (for the majority), this is two routes, using Perth as the hub.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:54 am

And the proposed PER-ALK-PER would have connected with QF9/10 LHR service
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:06 am

waoz1 wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
As per the Emirates 2019 schedule changes thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1412903

SYD gets reduced to 3x daily with the BKK (EK 418/419) one stop service axed.

PER gets reduced to 1x daily.


Not surprised
Interestingly I just had friends fly from uk, they always and I mean alway fly ex or qr this time they said with the price and the flight times sq was the better option. Qf9/10 might be starting to bite with its success could it mean QF strike with CDG service?

Buggar for frequent flyers

Not really a buggar- they've had it very good for a while. I've said it over and over again as PER always crops up in our weekly Commercial Dept. (not Ops!) meetings and PER has too much capacity versus demand- now rationalisation is taking place.
 
B1168
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:23 am

Air China ceased ticket ordering for its PVG-MEL/SYD flight. It is very interesting to see whom the successor will be.
MU seems to have some new planes that they will flatteredly use to fill up that space. But since other carriers (HO,CZ) both one decent amount of PVG slots and equipment to do so, can they operate it instead of CA?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:59 am

zkncj wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
Spat between PAPL and QF continues
Interesting

"Qantas group executive for government affairs Andrew Parker told an inquiry into the economic regulation of airports that “no one benefits” from the dispute over aeronautical fees.

He said Perth Airport’s actions last year had “already put WA’s tourism and economic growth at risk”. He accused the airport of:

BLOCKING Qantas’ proposed Auckland-Perth-Johannesburg service, which would have seen an extra 4000 international seats per week in WA.

HINDERING further expansion of the Perth Hub which would otherwise facilitate the addition of new direct flights to Europe.

JEOPARDISING the airline’s ability to expand domestic and regional connections to Perth."


https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/aviati ... 881071426z


There really isn’t to much point in an AKL-PER-JNB service at the moment. AKL-PER should do ok, but targeting South Africa from New Zealand isn’t worth the time.

The New Zealand and South African government are both having an spat over visa.


As said that's just the aircraft rotation, such a schedule won't be one flight number. Qantas already caters to whatever NZ-RSA traffic does exist as QF63/64 connects well to AKL, WLG and CHC in both directions.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 788
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:43 am

kriskim wrote:
I guess we are seeing a capacity correction by the ME3 in Australia, there was too much capacity and they are pulling back a little; PER has seen its frequency to the Middle East halved, seems like EK couldn't make the second daily work even with EY pulling out earlier. PER will get stronger in East Asia, India and Europe though.

Also massive capacity cuts on the Thailand-Australia font, TG has already taken out x10 weekly flights out of Australia and EK will further reduce the number of flights by cancelling its daily SYD-BKK service.

Thailand-Australia Routes:
Sydney-Bangkok: TG (7), QF (7)
Sydney-Phuket: JQ (3)


At some point TG will have to replace the 744 to SYD. Whether they do by using 2 smaller aircraft or use an A380, who knows ! This is TG after all. Or they cut further cut capacity by just having a daily service on a 777/A359. Thailand is a very popular destination for Australians but it seems the demand for the non-stops doesn't seem to be there. There are plenty of one-stop options via KUL/SIN and to a lesser extent HKG.
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7900
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:37 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
kriskim wrote:
I guess we are seeing a capacity correction by the ME3 in Australia, there was too much capacity and they are pulling back a little; PER has seen its frequency to the Middle East halved, seems like EK couldn't make the second daily work even with EY pulling out earlier. PER will get stronger in East Asia, India and Europe though.

Also massive capacity cuts on the Thailand-Australia font, TG has already taken out x10 weekly flights out of Australia and EK will further reduce the number of flights by cancelling its daily SYD-BKK service.

Thailand-Australia Routes:
Sydney-Bangkok: TG (7), QF (7)
Sydney-Phuket: JQ (3)


At some point TG will have to replace the 744 to SYD. Whether they do by using 2 smaller aircraft or use an A380, who knows ! This is TG after all. Or they cut further cut capacity by just having a daily service on a 777/A359. Thailand is a very popular destination for Australians but it seems the demand for the non-stops doesn't seem to be there. There are plenty of one-stop options via KUL/SIN and to a lesser extent HKG.


Demand is massive, but it's very price motivated. The likes of D7 and TR carry a lot of connecting flow and even JQ can't really compete on a cost basis. Add general oversupply from Australia to both BKK and KUL, where TG and MH sometimes charge LCC fares themselves to remain competitive, and I'm not surprised that TG are reducing capacity.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
smi0006
Posts: 2319
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:45 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
Seasonal flying makes sense.

Just as AA’s AKL-LAX services have been operated seasonally, taking on some MEL-LAX and/or BNE-LAX flying over the peak period would likely offer sine opportunities.

It will be interesting to see how QF manage their 789 maintenance moving forward, as a consideration appears to have been cycling the fleet through LAX to complete some parts of this process. It was said to be one of the reasons that MEL-SFO is not flying 6 x weekly now, as they had to keep the additional 2 x weekly MEL-LAX flights to conduct this.



Interesting indeed, clearly seems we’ll be seeing AA expand in AU! QF said they would launch three new routes with the JV (MEL-SFO would be 1) , glad to hear we’ll see more soon!!
My revised guess;
QF
BNE-ORD - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-DFW - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-SFO frequency increase

AA
LAX-MEL 789 daily
LAX-BNE 4 weekly season

Hopefully we see the QF PAPL discussion end soon, and AKL, JNB routes launched! With potential for EU routes back on the table. Disappointing PAPL let the situation deteriorate so much, in my eyes and I know many will disagree, QF is effectively the client here...
 
ArtV
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:51 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Interesting indeed, clearly seems we’ll be seeing AA expand in AU! QF said they would launch three new routes with the JV (MEL-SFO would be 1) , glad to hear we’ll see more soon!!
My revised guess;
QF
BNE-ORD - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-DFW - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-SFO frequency increase

AA
LAX-MEL 789 daily
LAX-BNE 4 weekly season

Hopefully we see the QF PAPL discussion end soon, and AKL, JNB routes launched! With potential for EU routes back on the table. Disappointing PAPL let the situation deteriorate so much, in my eyes and I know many will disagree, QF is effectively the client here...


Based upon this guess, with BNE (and MEL) losing the QF flights to LAX, that only leaves the A380 from Sydney for the JFK tag - which I don't believe the demand is there to even remotely come close to filling - it was also mean QF would need to drop NY.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1675
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:03 pm

ArtV wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Interesting indeed, clearly seems we’ll be seeing AA expand in AU! QF said they would launch three new routes with the JV (MEL-SFO would be 1) , glad to hear we’ll see more soon!!
My revised guess;
QF
BNE-ORD - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-DFW - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-SFO frequency increase

AA
LAX-MEL 789 daily
LAX-BNE 4 weekly season

Hopefully we see the QF PAPL discussion end soon, and AKL, JNB routes launched! With potential for EU routes back on the table. Disappointing PAPL let the situation deteriorate so much, in my eyes and I know many will disagree, QF is effectively the client here...


Based upon this guess, with BNE (and MEL) losing the QF flights to LAX, that only leaves the A380 from Sydney for the JFK tag - which I don't believe the demand is there to even remotely come close to filling - it was also mean QF would need to drop NY.


How do you work that out ? smi0006 is speculating that the current BNE/LAX service that terminates in LAX, ie : Not the flight that continues to JFK, will operate to ORD instead. Likewise the current MEL/LAX (QF95/96) operates MEL/DFW in lieu of MEL/LAX. AA then pick up the lost capacity to MEL with their own flight year round and also add a seasonal service to BNE. All quite viable, though I think the all the extra AA flying would be seasonal.
 
mh124
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:33 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:35 pm

Hi all, I had a question re BTRE international figs
For airlines that do stops on their way to aus (I'm mainly thinking of EK, for example their flight to Brisbane via Singapore) - does it get counted in the Singapore or Dubai column in the "city pairs" section for brisbane? Or would it be divided by the passengers who actually got out at SIN vs those who carried on to DXB?
 
ben175
Posts: 735
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:44 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:47 pm

The downfall of EK in PER is very hard to watch. Only a few years ago they were by far the biggest player on PER-Europe. I would have thought the demise of EY services would give the second daily flight a lifeline, but I guess not.

It’s fantastic that SQ has managed to remain at 4 x daily - I guess they also have the advantage of filling seats to Asia, and the O&D to SIN is far bigger than DXB.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
Posts: 331
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:04 pm

ben175 wrote:
The downfall of EK in PER is very hard to watch. Only a few years ago they were by far the biggest player on PER-Europe. I would have thought the demise of EY services would give the second daily flight a lifeline, but I guess not.

It’s fantastic that SQ has managed to remain at 4 x daily - I guess they also have the advantage of filling seats to Asia, and the O&D to SIN is far bigger than DXB.


Better than that, SQ is slowly upgauging to 787-10 and A350-900 offering a net increase in capacity in both cabins.
 
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qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 8965
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:52 pm

Sichuan Airlines to upgrade CTU-MEL to A359 from 4 Feb 19

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 15840?s=21
Forum Moderator
 
travelhound
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:56 pm

ben175 wrote:
The downfall of EK in PER is very hard to watch. Only a few years ago they were by far the biggest player on PER-Europe. I would have thought the demise of EY services would give the second daily flight a lifeline, but I guess not.

It’s fantastic that SQ has managed to remain at 4 x daily - I guess they also have the advantage of filling seats to Asia, and the O&D to SIN is far bigger than DXB.


If we go back 3-4 years EK were complaining about Perth not having jet bridges available for the A380. Perth countered with arguments around costs and underlying demand.

Maybe Perth Airport new a thing or two about the markets they serve and underlying demand.
 
ArtV
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:17 am

jupiter2 wrote:
ArtV wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Interesting indeed, clearly seems we’ll be seeing AA expand in AU! QF said they would launch three new routes with the JV (MEL-SFO would be 1) , glad to hear we’ll see more soon!!
My revised guess;
QF
BNE-ORD - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-DFW - current 789 lax terminator ends
MEL-SFO frequency increase

AA
LAX-MEL 789 daily
LAX-BNE 4 weekly season

Hopefully we see the QF PAPL discussion end soon, and AKL, JNB routes launched! With potential for EU routes back on the table. Disappointing PAPL let the situation deteriorate so much, in my eyes and I know many will disagree, QF is effectively the client here...


Based upon this guess, with BNE (and MEL) losing the QF flights to LAX, that only leaves the A380 from Sydney for the JFK tag - which I don't believe the demand is there to even remotely come close to filling - it was also mean QF would need to drop NY.


How do you work that out ? smi0006 is speculating that the current BNE/LAX service that terminates in LAX, ie : Not the flight that continues to JFK, will operate to ORD instead. Likewise the current MEL/LAX (QF95/96) operates MEL/DFW in lieu of MEL/LAX. AA then pick up the lost capacity to MEL with their own flight year round and also add a seasonal service to BNE. All quite viable, though I think the all the extra AA flying would be seasonal.


The BNE-LAX flight Is the flight that continues to JFK (albeit with a different flight number). If the 789 from BNE is not available, then the A380 ex- SYD will need to do the LAX-JFK leg, which would appear not viable.
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1684
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 am

getluv wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
getluv wrote:
The only way VA is ever going to be truly successful is when only one airline owns it because there’s too many conflicting interests. DL buying HNA’s share won’t solve VA’s problems, it’ll just create new ones.


Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - on the one hand it's replacing one airline shareholder with another, on the other hand it's hard to know whether DL would bring anything (either positive or negative) to VA that HU doesn't already. DL does, though, have a reputation for turning around struggling airlines - Aeromexico, Gol, Virgin Atlantic are the obvious ones, but they also mentored Garuda through its transformation and they've bid with the state-owned railway corporation to takeover Alitalia.

There's also the suggestion upthread that EY will look to sell their stake in VA later this year - I don't know the original source of that, nor how reliable that information is, but if it is true then DL may well look to buy out both EY and HU. That would make things hugely less complicated, and would free VA from two significant shareholders who are both struggling themselves.


You must live in a weird DL fanboy world. Aeromexico, Gol and Virgin Atlantic don’t have four major shareholders owning ~20% of the airline, whom each have a strategic reason to keep their ownership.

There’s no way SQ and EY are just going to let DL just come in and flex its muscle.


Actually, I'm much less a fan of DL than I used to be, and having been on this board for many years I can assure you I've never hit 'fanboy' status.

EY is itself in an unhealthy position which may be an incentive for them to sell out of VA. If, as some people expect, EY merges into EK, it would be unlikely the combined entity would retain a stake in VA given the existing relationship with a much bigger, more consistent and more viable QF. Or, if EY simply ceases trading, their shares in VA would be sold as part of the liquidation.

You may well be very right about SQ, and indeed you probably are. Personally, I think SQ has a lot of questions to answer in relation to VA. Why, for example, have they not flexed their own quite substantial muscle and made VA do something about things like the inconsistent product offering which are hurting VA's business? Why is SQ so content to just let a company it owns 20% of do some flying on its behalf, instead of stepping up to take proper competition to QF? Might SQ, in fact, be okay with DL or another airline buying into VA, making changes to improve VA's popularity and profitability, so long as doing so doesn't negatively affect SQ's connectivity in Australia, so that the value they derive from their VA shares increases? They were quite fun selling 49% of VS to DL when they couldn't/didn't make anything of VS themselves but maintaining their operational relationship with VS.

I'm not being a DL fanboy about this, and there are other names you could insert into my posts in place of DL while still making the same point. All I'm really saying is that it would be great to see a shareholder actively working on making VA a better player, and there are existing shareholders who might have their own reasons to make way for such a shareholder. Be it DL or not, I'm not overly bothered (DL was raised by someone else, and I'm simply agreeing they have priors in this respect), but it's about time VA had a shareholder do something positive for them. In that sense, I completely agree with you that less airline shareholders would likely be better for VA.
 
A350OZ
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:43 am

ArtV wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
ArtV wrote:

Based upon this guess, with BNE (and MEL) losing the QF flights to LAX, that only leaves the A380 from Sydney for the JFK tag - which I don't believe the demand is there to even remotely come close to filling - it was also mean QF would need to drop NY.


How do you work that out ? smi0006 is speculating that the current BNE/LAX service that terminates in LAX, ie : Not the flight that continues to JFK, will operate to ORD instead. Likewise the current MEL/LAX (QF95/96) operates MEL/DFW in lieu of MEL/LAX. AA then pick up the lost capacity to MEL with their own flight year round and also add a seasonal service to BNE. All quite viable, though I think the all the extra AA flying would be seasonal.


The BNE-LAX flight Is the flight that continues to JFK (albeit with a different flight number). If the 789 from BNE is not available, then the A380 ex- SYD will need to do the LAX-JFK leg, which would appear not viable.


There are two 789 BNE-LAX rotations: QF15/16 (daily and continues to JFK as QF11/12), and QF55/56 (4-weekly and terminates in LAX). smi0006 is talking about the latter one.
 
NPL8800
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 5:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:48 am

ArtV wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
ArtV wrote:

Based upon this guess, with BNE (and MEL) losing the QF flights to LAX, that only leaves the A380 from Sydney for the JFK tag - which I don't believe the demand is there to even remotely come close to filling - it was also mean QF would need to drop NY.


How do you work that out ? smi0006 is speculating that the current BNE/LAX service that terminates in LAX, ie : Not the flight that continues to JFK, will operate to ORD instead. Likewise the current MEL/LAX (QF95/96) operates MEL/DFW in lieu of MEL/LAX. AA then pick up the lost capacity to MEL with their own flight year round and also add a seasonal service to BNE. All quite viable, though I think the all the extra AA flying would be seasonal.


The BNE-LAX flight Is the flight that continues to JFK (albeit with a different flight number). If the 789 from BNE is not available, then the A380 ex- SYD will need to do the LAX-JFK leg, which would appear not viable.


But the 789 from BNE would still be available to carry onto JFK as I believe what the OP is saying is that they feel that with the JV being approved then AA would take over the QF55/56 4 weekly service with one of their own and QF would continue with their daily 15/16 789 service
 
redroo
Posts: 500
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:50 am

travelhound wrote:
ben175 wrote:
The downfall of EK in PER is very hard to watch. Only a few years ago they were by far the biggest player on PER-Europe. I would have thought the demise of EY services would give the second daily flight a lifeline, but I guess not.

It’s fantastic that SQ has managed to remain at 4 x daily - I guess they also have the advantage of filling seats to Asia, and the O&D to SIN is far bigger than DXB.


If we go back 3-4 years EK were complaining about Perth not having jet bridges available for the A380. Perth countered with arguments around costs and underlying demand.

Maybe Perth Airport new a thing or two about the markets they serve and underlying demand.



Very true. Forgot about that.

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