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PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7267
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:57 pm

I have an AA MD-80 flight booked on another route out of DFW later this month, I was actually super-excited to get at least one more ride on the "Super 80".
I'm on a DL MD-88 about every other week right now, but I haven't been on an AA M80 since about 2010.

Nostagic for sure, as I flew on sooo many MD-80s in my youth in the late-80s and 90s. My dad was very loyal AA flyer and so many memories of MD-80s to ORD and DFW. In fact, I used to find the AA MD-80 the most boring aircraft and used to be excited to get something else. Now, like said, its the other way around. I find the 738 & 739 to be the most boring aircraft in the sky. Maybe I will feel differently in 25 years.
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:47 pm

klm617 wrote:
I think the bigger surprise is LH being up 17% and RJ up 4%. Y


That shouldn't be a surprise. LH DTW capacity was up 18% in 2018 compared to 2017.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:00 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I think the bigger surprise is LH being up 17% and RJ up 4%. Y


That shouldn't be a surprise. LH DTW capacity was up 18% in 2018 compared to 2017.


Once again proving my point add the capacity in the Detroit market and the people will be there. Every international carrier outside of skyteam has now pretty much proven that RJ, LH and WW. So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB. After all LH had no real concrete evidence that if they upped the capacity at DTW that they would fill those seats.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:16 pm

Another amazing thing as that WOW Air alone with only 4 flights a week and for operating only operating 8 of the 12 months last year contributed just over 4% of the growth all by itself at DTW last year.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:55 pm

klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I think the bigger surprise is LH being up 17% and RJ up 4%. Y


That shouldn't be a surprise. LH DTW capacity was up 18% in 2018 compared to 2017.


Once again proving my point add the capacity in the Detroit market and the people will be there. Every international carrier outside of skyteam has now pretty much proven that RJ, LH and WW. So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB. After all LH had no real concrete evidence that if they upped the capacity at DTW that they would fill those seats.


The bit that I've underlined there isn't true. If you discount enough you can always fill incremental seats, and there was absolutely modeled data forecasting what steps would be necessary to fill those additional seats.

What they didn't and what we still don't know if the capacity adds and additional traffic were a success by way of yield/profitability as we don't have access to (or can't share if we do) international yield data, which would help conclude whether the capacity adds proved incrementally profitable and thus successful.

A win for DTW regardless. Still unknown whether it was a win for LH.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:41 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:

That shouldn't be a surprise. LH DTW capacity was up 18% in 2018 compared to 2017.


Once again proving my point add the capacity in the Detroit market and the people will be there. Every international carrier outside of skyteam has now pretty much proven that RJ, LH and WW. So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB. After all LH had no real concrete evidence that if they upped the capacity at DTW that they would fill those seats.


The bit that I've underlined there isn't true. If you discount enough you can always fill incremental seats, and there was absolutely modeled data forecasting what steps would be necessary to fill those additional seats.

What they didn't and what we still don't know if the capacity adds and additional traffic were a success by way of yield/profitability as we don't have access to (or can't share if we do) international yield data, which would help conclude whether the capacity adds proved incrementally profitable and thus successful.

A win for DTW regardless. Still unknown whether it was a win for LH.


That is very true but if it's any indication LH in summer 2019 is rolling back capacity a bit by going from the 744 to 346
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:51 pm

klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Once again proving my point add the capacity in the Detroit market and the people will be there. Every international carrier outside of skyteam has now pretty much proven that RJ, LH and WW. So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB. After all LH had no real concrete evidence that if they upped the capacity at DTW that they would fill those seats.


The bit that I've underlined there isn't true. If you discount enough you can always fill incremental seats, and there was absolutely modeled data forecasting what steps would be necessary to fill those additional seats.

What they didn't and what we still don't know if the capacity adds and additional traffic were a success by way of yield/profitability as we don't have access to (or can't share if we do) international yield data, which would help conclude whether the capacity adds proved incrementally profitable and thus successful.

A win for DTW regardless. Still unknown whether it was a win for LH.


That is very true but if it's any indication LH in summer 2019 is rolling back capacity a bit by going from the 744 to 346


Correct, and it's actually a pretty significant reduction. For 3Q2019 LH seat capacity will be down 24.3% YoY. That tells me their 2018 expansion may have been too aggressive to the point of not being sustainable on account of possible yield/profitability degradation.
 
alfa164
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:16 am

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:
The bit that I've underlined there isn't true. If you discount enough you can always fill incremental seats, and there was absolutely modeled data forecasting what steps would be necessary to fill those additional seats.
What they didn't and what we still don't know if the capacity adds and additional traffic were a success by way of yield/profitability as we don't have access to (or can't share if we do) international yield data, which would help conclude whether the capacity adds proved incrementally profitable and thus successful.
A win for DTW regardless. Still unknown whether it was a win for LH.

That is very true but if it's any indication LH in summer 2019 is rolling back capacity a bit by going from the 744 to 346


Correct, and it's actually a pretty significant reduction. For 3Q2019 LH seat capacity will be down 24.3% YoY. That tells me their 2018 expansion may have been too aggressive to the point of not being sustainable on account of possible yield/profitability degradation.


"Well surely there is no reason to think the same would not be true of EI on DTW-DUB. After LH upped the capacity at DTW they learned there was not much market for the additional seats. EI can now see that they would not fill their seats if they entered the market."

I am sure that is what the "other" poster meant to say earlier...

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:03 am

klm617 wrote:
So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB.


I have an honest question that in many ways pertains to the potential EI DTW-DUB add.

Back in 2008, BA ended their DTW-LHR flight after 50 years of nonstop service, saying outright that it wasn't profitable enough and that they could make more money serving IAH or other US destinations.

Late last year, EI formally applied to join the joint venture between their parent company IAG (BA, IB), AY, and AA. Once they're formally in the joint venture, it's worth pointing out that all transatlantic network decisions will be made jointly with AA, BA ,and IB, with AA in particular having essentially 50/50 influence over whether a new route is launched or not.

Per the below graph, DTW nonstop capacity to London has been all over the map with 2018 levels lower than their ten year peak in 2016 by quite a ways. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.

Nonstop Capacity between DTW and London (Annual Seats)
Image
*BA excluded from 2008
Last edited by winginit on Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:07 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I have an AA MD-80 flight booked on another route out of DFW later this month, I was actually super-excited to get at least one more ride on the "Super 80".
I'm on a DL MD-88 about every other week right now, but I haven't been on an AA M80 since about 2010.

Nostagic for sure, as I flew on sooo many MD-80s in my youth in the late-80s and 90s. My dad was very loyal AA flyer and so many memories of MD-80s to ORD and DFW. In fact, I used to find the AA MD-80 the most boring aircraft and used to be excited to get something else. Now, like said, its the other way around. I find the 738 & 739 to be the most boring aircraft in the sky. Maybe I will feel differently in 25 years.


Surprisingly, the F-100 and (not so) Super 80 dominated DTW in the 1990s; 72S weren’t at all common, except on a rotational (with the MD-80) basis to MIA. Even more surprisingly, we were one of the first markets to see regular 738 service, via ORD (before re-fleeting removed the type from ORD post-9/11). Then, for whatever reason, AA started heavily scheduling the 72S, shortly before their retirement.

After 9-11, DTW became all MD-80 to ORD, STL and DFW; MIA got the 738. Sadly, the MD-80 left ORD (for RJ, after a mixture of 757 and RJ) by mid-decade, although the MD-80 soldiered on, performing most flights to DFW (the 738 generally operating one).

A couple years ago, when the MD-80 returned to ORD, I booked a ticket on AA specifically to ride on one into DTW one last time. It never happened - AA ended up overhauling the schedule and I ended up on an ERJ, which I guess is the mini-me version of the MD-80.

I can’t remember the last time I flew AA to or from DTW — it’s been at least 12 years (although I’ve been on AA in other parts of the country) and I’ve never bothered to check to see if they brought that ugly quilt over from the L.C. Smith.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:18 am

compensateme wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I have an AA MD-80 flight booked on another route out of DFW later this month, I was actually super-excited to get at least one more ride on the "Super 80".
I'm on a DL MD-88 about every other week right now, but I haven't been on an AA M80 since about 2010.

Nostagic for sure, as I flew on sooo many MD-80s in my youth in the late-80s and 90s. My dad was very loyal AA flyer and so many memories of MD-80s to ORD and DFW. In fact, I used to find the AA MD-80 the most boring aircraft and used to be excited to get something else. Now, like said, its the other way around. I find the 738 & 739 to be the most boring aircraft in the sky. Maybe I will feel differently in 25 years.


Surprisingly, the F-100 and (not so) Super 80 dominated DTW in the 1990s; 72S weren’t at all common, except on a rotational (with the MD-80) basis to MIA. Even more surprisingly, we were one of the first markets to see regular 738 service, via ORD (before re-fleeting removed the type from ORD post-9/11). Then, for whatever reason, AA started heavily scheduling the 72S, shortly before their retirement.

After 9-11, DTW became all MD-80 to ORD, STL and DFW; MIA got the 738. Sadly, the MD-80 left ORD (for RJ, after a mixture of 757 and RJ) by mid-decade, although the MD-80 soldiered on, performing most flights to DFW (the 738 generally operating one).

A couple years ago, when the MD-80 returned to ORD, I booked a ticket on AA specifically to ride on one into DTW one last time. It never happened - AA ended up overhauling the schedule and I ended up on an ERJ, which I guess is the mini-me version of the MD-80.

I can’t remember the last time I flew AA to or from DTW — it’s been at least 12 years (although I’ve been on AA in other parts of the country) and I’ve never bothered to check to see if they brought that ugly quilt over from the L.C. Smith.


Yes the quilt is in the North Terminal or at least it was last time I flew AA out of Detroit.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Puissance
Posts: 38
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:25 am

winginit wrote:
. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.


There was a great deal written and spoken by BA how emotionally difficult it was to drop the service after so many years of doing. They also spoke of the lack of feed. Their fear is that if they return, Delta will ramp up capacity and start having super cheap fares and bring in lots of connecting passengers to keep the flights full. This will lead to a lack of passengers and terrible yields.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:28 am

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB.


I have an honest question that in many ways pertains to the potential EI DTW-DUB add.

Back in 2008, BA ended their DTW-LHR flight after 50 years of nonstop service, saying outright that it wasn't profitable enough and that they could make more money serving IAH or other US destinations.

Late last year, EI formally applied to join the joint venture between their parent company IAG (BA, IB), AY, and AA. Once they're formally in the joint venture, it's worth pointing out that all transatlantic network decisions will be made jointly with AA, BA ,and IB, with AA in particular having essentially 50/50 influence over whether a new route is launched or not.

Per the below graph, DTW nonstop capacity to London has been all over the map with 2018 levels lower than their ten year peak in 2016 by quite a ways. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.

Nonstop Capacity between DTW and London (Annual Seats)
Image
*BA excluded from 2008


First of all these are only my best guesses. BA has been gone far too long to capture any premium market out of DTW. Delta has the entire DTW-LHR market covered as far as premium traffic goes and BA can never crack that. The reason the capacity is all over the place is because Delta has complete control over the capacity that is deployed in the Detroit London market doing whatever is best for them to get the maximum return on their investment and to deploy capacity over their network as they see fit. Now as far as EI BA has no narrow body to operate DTW-LON as Aer Lingus can use the smaller A321LR people had talked about AA picking up DTW-LHR on a 757 as a viable option but that speculation has all but evaporated. EI opens up a totally different market than BA would out of Detroit a sort of middle of the road price range with the service or a reliable carrier that has a long history and that isn't going anywhere anytime soon. BA needs premium traffic to be successful and that's not going to happen out of Detroit for BA or any other carrier as Delta has a lock on that. What DTW lacking is low fare international options out of Detroit like EI, QR , EK and TK these guys are the only real options to cracking this DL stronghold. Keep in mind also that BA has not returned to CLT albeit they have AA to carry those passengers. Also bear in mind that AMS, FRA and CDG are much more preferred transfer points than LHR is.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:32 am

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
So there is no reason to think the same is not true of EI on DTW-DUB.


I have an honest question that in many ways pertains to the potential EI DTW-DUB add.

Back in 2008, BA ended their DTW-LHR flight after 50 years of nonstop service, saying outright that it wasn't profitable enough and that they could make more money serving IAH or other US destinations.

Late last year, EI formally applied to join the joint venture between their parent company IAG (BA, IB), AY, and AA. Once they're formally in the joint venture, it's worth pointing out that all transatlantic network decisions will be made jointly with AA, BA ,and IB, with AA in particular having essentially 50/50 influence over whether a new route is launched or not.

Per the below graph, DTW nonstop capacity to London has been all over the map with 2018 levels lower than their ten year peak in 2016 by quite a ways. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.

Nonstop Capacity between DTW and London (Annual Seats)
Image
*BA excluded from 2008


2019 should be near 2016 levels when they bring back the 2 daily flights again.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:43 am

Puissance wrote:
winginit wrote:
. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.


There was a great deal written and spoken by BA how emotionally difficult it was to drop the service after so many years of doing. They also spoke of the lack of feed. Their fear is that if they return, Delta will ramp up capacity and start having super cheap fares and bring in lots of connecting passengers to keep the flights full. This will lead to a lack of passengers and terrible yields.


So emotionally difficult that they wasted no time in dropping the route after losing the Big Pharma contract, which had basiclly guaranteed big profits for the flights. Can’t blame BA, though, at the time Metro Detroit was getting smacked by the recession, while it had yet to make a significant impact on the rest of the country. LH was adding a second flight, and NW was about to launch a series of Atlantic flights operated by the 757, including LGW as the 333 shifted to LHR.

I’m not surprised BA hasn’t come back yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. After they’re done sucking up taxpayer subsidies from PIT, CHS, etc., they’ll need to figure out other places they can operate into. MAybe when service to PIT and CHS ends :).
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:40 am

compensateme wrote:
Surprisingly, the F-100 and (not so) Super 80 dominated DTW in the 1990s; 72S weren’t at all common, except on a rotational (with the MD-80) basis to MIA. Even more surprisingly, we were one of the first markets to see regular 738 service, via ORD (before re-fleeting removed the type from ORD post-9/11). Then, for whatever reason, AA started heavily scheduling the 72S, shortly before their retirement.

After 9-11, DTW became all MD-80 to ORD, STL and DFW; MIA got the 738. Sadly, the MD-80 left ORD (for RJ, after a mixture of 757 and RJ) by mid-decade, although the MD-80 soldiered on, performing most flights to DFW (the 738 generally operating one).

A couple years ago, when the MD-80 returned to ORD, I booked a ticket on AA specifically to ride on one into DTW one last time. It never happened - AA ended up overhauling the schedule and I ended up on an ERJ, which I guess is the mini-me version of the MD-80.

I can’t remember the last time I flew AA to or from DTW — it’s been at least 12 years (although I’ve been on AA in other parts of the country) and I’ve never bothered to check to see if they brought that ugly quilt over from the L.C. Smith.

I have records of every flight I've been on going back to 1989...(holy #$%^, I'm going to hit my 1,000th recorded flight on Thursday this week. I actually crossed that threshold sometime last year, I just don't have good history or ability to figure out flights from my first 9 years. I do know my first ever flight was in at 3 months old on DL DTW-ATL. Hopefully I flew on an L1011 or something cool back in the day)

My dad was a very loyal AA flyer, dating back to the late 70s/early 80s. He has a strong dislike for NW in the Northworst era. I have many memories of going to the old Admirals Club above the ticket counters in the mezzanize of the Smith terminal. He had his picture on the wall there in the million miler club, back when that was a relatively big achievement. I loved looking out the windows on the ramp between B & C. Yes, and the quilt. LOL good to hear it made its may over the North Terminal. Why do we remember that damn quilt that hung on the wall between B6 & B7 in the Smith??

I had flights on the DC-10 on DTW-ORD back when AA 73/72 was same plane service DTW-ORD-HNL-OGG on the DC-10. DTW was one of the first cities to get the 757 from AA, when they joined the 757 party relatively late in 1989. I flew a DTW-ORD in late 1989 on a 757 back when they were brand new. I also have a 767 flight from DFW-DTW back in 1990. Did AA ever fly the 757 on DFW-DTW? Many 72S flights in the early 90's since RDU was all 72S, along with many of the ORD flights as well. My first AA MD-80 was DTW-BNA. I only have a handful of AA F100 flights, and they were DTW-ORD flights in the circa 1999-2000 timeframe.

I haven't flown AA since 2011, and I've got my next one booked in about 2 weeks.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:33 am

compensateme wrote:
Puissance wrote:
winginit wrote:
. Why hasn't BA re-deployed nonstop capacity from LHR to DTW? Since cancelling DTW service in 2008, BA has added LAS, SJC, ATL, BNA, MSY, AUS and SAN.


There was a great deal written and spoken by BA how emotionally difficult it was to drop the service after so many years of doing. They also spoke of the lack of feed. Their fear is that if they return, Delta will ramp up capacity and start having super cheap fares and bring in lots of connecting passengers to keep the flights full. This will lead to a lack of passengers and terrible yields.


So emotionally difficult that they wasted no time in dropping the route after losing the Big Pharma contract, which had basiclly guaranteed big profits for the flights. Can’t blame BA, though, at the time Metro Detroit was getting smacked by the recession, while it had yet to make a significant impact on the rest of the country. LH was adding a second flight, and NW was about to launch a series of Atlantic flights operated by the 757, including LGW as the 333 shifted to LHR.

I’m not surprised BA hasn’t come back yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. After they’re done sucking up taxpayer subsidies from PIT, CHS, etc., they’ll need to figure out other places they can operate into. MAybe when service to PIT and CHS ends :).


I am really not surprised they are not back Delta would crush them here in Detroit if they returned. That can't offer anything significantly better than Delta does plus there is no money to be had here in Detroit and every new route they have added has no strong competitor that they have to fight of and they are the only carrier operating the London route nonstop from the markets they add. Yes they had no issue dropping the route and I doubt the airport did little or anything to try to retain the business being that NW was on the route.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019pp

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:12 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Surprisingly, the F-100 and (not so) Super 80 dominated DTW in the 1990s; 72S weren’t at all common, except on a rotational (with the MD-80) basis to MIA. Even more surprisingly, we were one of the first markets to see regular 738 service, via ORD (before re-fleeting removed the type from ORD post-9/11). Then, for whatever reason, AA started heavily scheduling the 72S, shortly before their retirement.

After 9-11, DTW became all MD-80 to ORD, STL and DFW; MIA got the 738. Sadly, the MD-80 left ORD (for RJ, after a mixture of 757 and RJ) by mid-decade, although the MD-80 soldiered on, performing most flights to DFW (the 738 generally operating one).

A couple years ago, when the MD-80 returned to ORD, I booked a ticket on AA specifically to ride on one into DTW one last time. It never happened - AA ended up overhauling the schedule and I ended up on an ERJ, which I guess is the mini-me version of the MD-80.

I can’t remember the last time I flew AA to or from DTW — it’s been at least 12 years (although I’ve been on AA in other parts of the country) and I’ve never bothered to check to see if they brought that ugly quilt over from the L.C. Smith.

I have records of every flight I've been on going back to 1989...(holy #$%^, I'm going to hit my 1,000th recorded flight on Thursday this week. I actually crossed that threshold sometime last year, I just don't have good history or ability to figure out flights from my first 9 years. I do know my first ever flight was in at 3 months old on DL DTW-ATL. Hopefully I flew on an L1011 or something cool back in the day)

My dad was a very loyal AA flyer, dating back to the late 70s/early 80s. He has a strong dislike for NW in the Northworst era. I have many memories of going to the old Admirals Club above the ticket counters in the mezzanize of the Smith terminal. He had his picture on the wall there in the million miler club, back when that was a relatively big achievement. I loved looking out the windows on the ramp between B & C. Yes, and the quilt. LOL good to hear it made its may over the North Terminal. Why do we remember that damn quilt that hung on the wall between B6 & B7 in the Smith??

I had flights on the DC-10 on DTW-ORD back when AA 73/72 was same plane service DTW-ORD-HNL-OGG on the DC-10. DTW was one of the first cities to get the 757 from AA, when they joined the 757 party relatively late in 1989. I flew a DTW-ORD in late 1989 on a 757 back when they were brand new. I also have a 767 flight from DFW-DTW back in 1990. Did AA ever fly the 757 on DFW-DTW? Many 72S flights in the early 90's since RDU was all 72S, along with many of the ORD flights as well. My first AA MD-80 was DTW-BNA. I only have a handful of AA F100 flights, and they were DTW-ORD flights in the circa 1999-2000 timeframe.

I haven't flown AA since 2011, and I've got my next one booked in about 2 weeks.


My first ever flight on AA was twenty years ago last summer; I was still in high school and scored a RT$25 (inclusive) to ORD on what was suppose to be a day trip. The NW pilots decided to strike and at the gate... ‘who wants a $500 voucher?’ ME!!! ‘Who wants another $500 voucher?’ ME, ME!!! ‘Looking for more volunteers!’ ME, ME, ME!!! I scored several thousand dollars in vouchers that day, plus they rescheduled my flight a couple months out. That will never happen again, today they’d offer a single $500 voucher in exchange for rebooking a week later.

I used those vouchers over the next year, mainly to see family in the LA-area. Lots and lots of F-100. I preferred to route via DFW for the double-meal service. In the evenings, seeing a F-100 was like playing Wheel of Fortune and landing on bankrupt; the MD-80 had trayed dinner service while the F-100 has Bristo Bags. I think I brought one of my sandwhiches home once and used it to sand a piece of furniture!

I would assume AA operated the 757 to/from DFW, given the NW hub was still not fully developed and other airlines had a sizable market share. But after a few years, nothing but F-100 and Super 80s, with the rare 72S...
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019pp

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:08 pm

compensateme wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Surprisingly, the F-100 and (not so) Super 80 dominated DTW in the 1990s; 72S weren’t at all common, except on a rotational (with the MD-80) basis to MIA. Even more surprisingly, we were one of the first markets to see regular 738 service, via ORD (before re-fleeting removed the type from ORD post-9/11). Then, for whatever reason, AA started heavily scheduling the 72S, shortly before their retirement.

After 9-11, DTW became all MD-80 to ORD, STL and DFW; MIA got the 738. Sadly, the MD-80 left ORD (for RJ, after a mixture of 757 and RJ) by mid-decade, although the MD-80 soldiered on, performing most flights to DFW (the 738 generally operating one).

A couple years ago, when the MD-80 returned to ORD, I booked a ticket on AA specifically to ride on one into DTW one last time. It never happened - AA ended up overhauling the schedule and I ended up on an ERJ, which I guess is the mini-me version of the MD-80.

I can’t remember the last time I flew AA to or from DTW — it’s been at least 12 years (although I’ve been on AA in other parts of the country) and I’ve never bothered to check to see if they brought that ugly quilt over from the L.C. Smith.

I have records of every flight I've been on going back to 1989...(holy #$%^, I'm going to hit my 1,000th recorded flight on Thursday this week. I actually crossed that threshold sometime last year, I just don't have good history or ability to figure out flights from my first 9 years. I do know my first ever flight was in at 3 months old on DL DTW-ATL. Hopefully I flew on an L1011 or something cool back in the day)

My dad was a very loyal AA flyer, dating back to the late 70s/early 80s. He has a strong dislike for NW in the Northworst era. I have many memories of going to the old Admirals Club above the ticket counters in the mezzanize of the Smith terminal. He had his picture on the wall there in the million miler club, back when that was a relatively big achievement. I loved looking out the windows on the ramp between B & C. Yes, and the quilt. LOL good to hear it made its may over the North Terminal. Why do we remember that damn quilt that hung on the wall between B6 & B7 in the Smith??

I had flights on the DC-10 on DTW-ORD back when AA 73/72 was same plane service DTW-ORD-HNL-OGG on the DC-10. DTW was one of the first cities to get the 757 from AA, when they joined the 757 party relatively late in 1989. I flew a DTW-ORD in late 1989 on a 757 back when they were brand new. I also have a 767 flight from DFW-DTW back in 1990. Did AA ever fly the 757 on DFW-DTW? Many 72S flights in the early 90's since RDU was all 72S, along with many of the ORD flights as well. My first AA MD-80 was DTW-BNA. I only have a handful of AA F100 flights, and they were DTW-ORD flights in the circa 1999-2000 timeframe.

I haven't flown AA since 2011, and I've got my next one booked in about 2 weeks.


My first ever flight on AA was twenty years ago last summer; I was still in high school and scored a RT$25 (inclusive) to ORD on what was suppose to be a day trip. The NW pilots decided to strike and at the gate... ‘who wants a $500 voucher?’ ME!!! ‘Who wants another $500 voucher?’ ME, ME!!! ‘Looking for more volunteers!’ ME, ME, ME!!! I scored several thousand dollars in vouchers that day, plus they rescheduled my flight a couple months out. That will never happen again, today they’d offer a single $500 voucher in exchange for rebooking a week later.

I used those vouchers over the next year, mainly to see family in the LA-area. Lots and lots of F-100. I preferred to route via DFW for the double-meal service. In the evenings, seeing a F-100 was like playing Wheel of Fortune and landing on bankrupt; the MD-80 had trayed dinner service while the F-100 has Bristo Bags. I think I brought one of my sandwhiches home once and used it to sand a piece of furniture!

I would assume AA operated the 757 to/from DFW, given the NW hub was still not fully developed and other airlines had a sizable market share. But after a few years, nothing but F-100 and Super 80s, with the rare 72S...


Got you beat by a little bit my first was on an AA CV990 in March of 1964 between DTW-JFK. I remember want to fly North Central so bad but never got the opportunity then in the summer of 1980 I was scheduled to fly a Braniff 72S from BOS to DTW when they were looking for volunteers to give up their seat to take a RC flight like an hour later or so for $50 cash no vouchers back then. So while not being able to ever fly North Central I got the next best thing a Republic DC-9-50 painted in the North Central livery but with Republic titles.
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hjulicher
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:58 pm

What's very impressive is the growth of international travel at DTW, and we're not talking about cross-border Canadian traffic, as nice as they are.

I think that the +6.7% shows that the market can be stimulated and suffers from high fares. I wonder how DTW compares to peers of its size in terms of international pax growth. This is something the WCAA should highlight when trying to attract new international service to the airport.

The slow growth at DL in my opinion shows how their strategy of constraining supply will ultimately backfire. They are slowly losing market leadership in many top markets as they invest resources in other markets like SEA and BOS. Sooner or later, they will lose in DTW as they are opening up opportunities for new entrants into existing markets. F9 and NK, as well as B6, UA, and AA will be able to enter markets which DL hardly serves.

I'm glad that RJ is able to continue to make DTW work. It's probably one of the most long-haul niche markets in the US (along with NGO) but cool that the service exists. Does RJ have any good connectivity to India?
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jplatts
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:58 pm

hjulicher wrote:
The slow growth at DL in my opinion shows how their strategy of constraining supply will ultimately backfire. They are slowly losing market leadership in many top markets as they invest resources in other markets like SEA and BOS. Sooner or later, they will lose in DTW as they are opening up opportunities for new entrants into existing markets. F9 and NK, as well as B6, UA, and AA will be able to enter markets which DL hardly serves.


In addition, WN could add DTW-HOU and DTW-OAK nonstop service. HOU and OAK are two of the top destinations traveled to from DTW that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from DTW, and both HOU and OAK are focus cities for WN.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:03 am

The fact that NK can either equally compete, nearly compete, or excel Delta in Detroit with barely doing a lick of advertising really is something. I think now with NK's new leadership growth will be concentrated away from DTW, but that doesn't mean service wont be added. They proved that with RDU. I don't think NK would open up BNA and skip DTW, too much opportunity for NK to pass on those kind of routes.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:04 am

hjulicher wrote:
What's very impressive is the growth of international travel at DTW, and we're not talking about cross-border Canadian traffic, as nice as they are.

I think that the +6.7% shows that the market can be stimulated and suffers from high fares. I wonder how DTW compares to peers of its size in terms of international pax growth. This is something the WCAA should highlight when trying to attract new international service to the airport.

The slow growth at DL in my opinion shows how their strategy of constraining supply will ultimately backfire. They are slowly losing market leadership in many top markets as they invest resources in other markets like SEA and BOS. Sooner or later, they will lose in DTW as they are opening up opportunities for new entrants into existing markets. F9 and NK, as well as B6, UA, and AA will be able to enter markets which DL hardly serves.

I'm glad that RJ is able to continue to make DTW work. It's probably one of the most long-haul niche markets in the US (along with NGO) but cool that the service exists. Does RJ have any good connectivity to India?


I agree with you 100% and have been saying this from day one. Why does Delta want to lose market share in a market where it has total control in favor of a market like BOS that is already over saturated with low yielding capacity. I believe you are correct if Delta continues to do this they at some point are going to lose their control here in Detroit. With that being said it still amazes me that the WCAA can not capitalize on the fact that international low fare capacity is added at Detroit the people will come. The area is huge that Detroit can draw from now that it is the only city in the Great Lakes region that has year round LCC service to Europe it can pull from a tristate area not to mention from Ontario. Let's hope we see some REAL growth at DTW in 2020 not just this 1% BS.
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winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:18 pm

hjulicher wrote:
Sooner or later, they will lose in DTW as they are opening up opportunities for new entrants into existing markets.


klm617 wrote:
I believe you are correct if Delta continues to do this they at some point are going to lose their control here in Detroit.


I'm curious as to specifically what the two of you are implying or referring to here. What would Delta losing in DTW look like? Be specific. Over the past decade Delta (or the combined DL/NW) has held between 70% and 80% of the capacity share at DTW - it's a fortress hub. How low would they need to go to lose control?
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:50 pm

winginit wrote:
hjulicher wrote:
Sooner or later, they will lose in DTW as they are opening up opportunities for new entrants into existing markets.


klm617 wrote:
I believe you are correct if Delta continues to do this they at some point are going to lose their control here in Detroit.


I'm curious as to specifically what the two of you are implying or referring to here. What would Delta losing in DTW look like? Be specific. Over the past decade Delta (or the combined DL/NW) has held between 70% and 80% of the capacity share at DTW - it's a fortress hub. How low would they need to go to lose control?


Every quarter Delta loses a little more ground as far as the DTW O/D market goes. So while yes today it's a fortress hub but as time goes on and Detroit get's more nonstop and cheaper fare options it weakens Delta's position just a little bit more. Capacity is not the unit of measure here the amount of the O/D market that they carry is the true indicator here and that is shrinking.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:56 pm

So I got these numbers from another thread these are MSP numbers. My question is how does MSP get considered for new flights with O/D numbers of less than 40 passengers a day when I don't think Detroit has any international market that it is linked to with less or even given consideration. They have recent got or are being considered for market with 40 or less passengers per day IC, PVG and DUB and carry HDN at only 35 per day. Also a big surprise is the fact that MSP is often considered a big business center but yet only has 41 per day to one of the top business centers in the EU Frankfurt.

Some (incomplete) PDEW figures from the Metropolitan Airports Commission, which recently increased the value of its incentive program for new international flights. MSP-PVG (and MSP-ICN/DUB as well) will likely be in line for $2M in incentives over their first two years each.

(With service on one carrier)
LHR: 131
FRA: 41
HND: 35

(With no current service)
FCO: 42
DUB: 40
MUC: 32
PVG: 32
NBO: 27
ICN: 24
BCN: 24
SGN: 23
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winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:10 pm

You didn't answer the question, which was what it would look like for Delta to lose control of their fortress hub DTW. Specifically what would that look like using quantifiable metrics? Paint that picture for us please.

klm617 wrote:
Every quarter Delta loses a little more ground as far as the DTW O/D market goes.


I'm not doubting your claim - but I'd like to see your data that backs that claim.

klm617 wrote:
So while yes today it's a fortress hub but as time goes on and Detroit get's more nonstop and cheaper fare options it weakens Delta's position just a little bit more. Capacity is not the unit of measure here the amount of the O/D market that they carry is the true indicator here and that is shrinking.


DTW is, at the end of the day, a hub where connecting traffic is as if not more important than the local O&D market. That being the case, I'm not tracking on how Delta losing limited share of local point to point traffic will somehow result in them losing DTW as was implied. If you think there's a scenario where DL might organically lose pricing control over DTW then make that claim and state how that would come about. DL isn't the one retreating from DTW - you'll find that's AA, WN, and, more recently, UA.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:58 pm

winginit wrote:
You didn't answer the question, which was what it would look like for Delta to lose control of their fortress hub DTW. Specifically what would that look like using quantifiable metrics? Paint that picture for us please.

klm617 wrote:
Every quarter Delta loses a little more ground as far as the DTW O/D market goes.


I'm not doubting your claim - but I'd like to see your data that backs that claim.

klm617 wrote:
So while yes today it's a fortress hub but as time goes on and Detroit get's more nonstop and cheaper fare options it weakens Delta's position just a little bit more. Capacity is not the unit of measure here the amount of the O/D market that they carry is the true indicator here and that is shrinking.


DTW is, at the end of the day, a hub where connecting traffic is as if not more important than the local O&D market. That being the case, I'm not tracking on how Delta losing limited share of local point to point traffic will somehow result in them losing DTW as was implied. If you think there's a scenario where DL might organically lose pricing control over DTW then make that claim and state how that would come about. DL isn't the one retreating from DTW - you'll find that's AA, WN, and, more recently, UA.


First of Delta makes it's money out of Detroit primarily on the O/D traffic not the connecting traffic because if that were they case it wouldn't be constantly making sure capacity increase stay at a minimum in Detroit. If Detroit was all about Delta making money on the connections than it would look more like ATL. Delta is not driving out WN and AA NK has more to do with that than Delta. Because their market share is much smaller than Delta's is they are much more vulnerable to the NK expansion than anything Delta does. Let me rephrase that the level of control they have in the Detroit market as more and more routes and players enter the market the weaker Delta's position will be and at the moment that is coming through the NK expansion. These are the reasons why it's so important for Delta to keep any low coast options out of Detroit and the airport knows that. Don't know what kind of matrix you are looking for as there is nothing to gauge that by as it hasn't happened but I guarantee you that NK expansion and the addition of EI and EK into the Detroit market things will be much different when people are no longer are bound to Delta and what they offer internationally from Detroit.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:01 pm

winginit wrote:
You didn't answer the question, which was what it would look like for Delta to lose control of their fortress hub DTW. Specifically what would that look like using quantifiable metrics? Paint that picture for us please.

klm617 wrote:
Every quarter Delta loses a little more ground as far as the DTW O/D market goes.


I'm not doubting your claim - but I'd like to see your data that backs that claim.

klm617 wrote:
So while yes today it's a fortress hub but as time goes on and Detroit get's more nonstop and cheaper fare options it weakens Delta's position just a little bit more. Capacity is not the unit of measure here the amount of the O/D market that they carry is the true indicator here and that is shrinking.


DTW is, at the end of the day, a hub where connecting traffic is as if not more important than the local O&D market. That being the case, I'm not tracking on how Delta losing limited share of local point to point traffic will somehow result in them losing DTW as was implied. If you think there's a scenario where DL might organically lose pricing control over DTW then make that claim and state how that would come about. DL isn't the one retreating from DTW - you'll find that's AA, WN, and, more recently, UA.


I'm sure you have the numbers at the ready to the percentage of the O/D carries out of Detroit YOY.
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winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:16 pm

klm617 wrote:
First of Delta makes it's money out of Detroit primarily on the O/D traffic not the connecting traffic


I'd like to see a source for that please, because I don't think that's true at all on account of international premium connecting traffic to both Europe and Asia. If you don't have a source please mark your claim as speculation.

klm617 wrote:
I guarantee you that NK expansion and the addition of EI and EK into the Detroit market things will be much different when people are no longer are bound to Delta and what they offer internationally from Detroit.


NK has already turned DTW into a top station and yet the DTW passenger base (you mentioned recently that this includes you personally), and especially the business traveler passenger base who account for a disproportionate degree of profits, are still beholden to Delta. That's unlikely to change even if NK continued their expansion trajectory for several more years. - NK is likely never going to be a viable player in the business travel marketplace.

EI won't change the competitive dynamics in a meaningful way. You can only disrupt so much with daily 321 service.

EK isn't coming to DTW anytime soon. You've said this numerous times yourself.

The fact of the matter is that even if NK doubled their capacity at DTW, EI launched widebody daily service to DTW and EK launched daily 777 service to DTW and DL made no capacity changes at all, DL would still have 66% of DTW capacity. That's more than enough to control pricing.

UA still has a pretty good handle on SFO pricing power and they only have something like 45% of the capacity at the airport.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:47 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
First of Delta makes it's money out of Detroit primarily on the O/D traffic not the connecting traffic


I'd like to see a source for that please, because I don't think that's true at all on account of international premium connecting traffic to both Europe and Asia. If you don't have a source please mark your claim as speculation.

klm617 wrote:
I guarantee you that NK expansion and the addition of EI and EK into the Detroit market things will be much different when people are no longer are bound to Delta and what they offer internationally from Detroit.


NK has already turned DTW into a top station and yet the DTW passenger base (you mentioned recently that this includes you personally), and especially the business traveler passenger base who account for a disproportionate degree of profits, are still beholden to Delta. That's unlikely to change even if NK continued their expansion trajectory for several more years. - NK is likely never going to be a viable player in the business travel marketplace.

EI won't change the competitive dynamics in a meaningful way. You can only disrupt so much with daily 321 service.

EK isn't coming to DTW anytime soon. You've said this numerous times yourself.

The fact of the matter is that even if NK doubled their capacity at DTW, EI launched widebody daily service to DTW and EK launched daily 777 service to DTW and DL made no capacity changes at all, DL would still have 66% of DTW capacity. That's more than enough to control pricing.

UA still has a pretty good handle on SFO pricing power and they only have something like 45% of the capacity at the airport.


First of all if international connecting traffic is where they make their money how comes there is number nothing in the pipeline and number two was does every international increase out of Detroit get balanced out with a like decrease on another route. If international connections were a cash cow at Detroit why is there never any meaningful increase. You are correct Delta has control over the premium pricing in Detroit hence why I say BA is never coming back unless they sign some pretty big corporate contracts. Where Delta will lose their pricing power is on the low end fares. As fare as me being beholden to Delta yes that at the moment is true because NK can not give my anything significantly better than Delta does when it comes to the Y cabin so of course I'm choosing Delta but the minute someone offers me more bang for my buck I will chose a different option.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
tphuang
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:02 pm

remember, NK is mostly O&D traffic, whereas Delta has a lot of connecting traffic.

According to BTS, NK is at 10% the domestic revenue passenger right now. If they increase that to 15 to 20%, that's going to severely hurt DL yields to many markets in the country. First of all, it would eliminate a lot of monopolies that DL has. Second, increased NK presence would force DL to price match more aggressively to fill flights to places like Florida, MSY and LAX. At which point, DL's margin at DTW will look a lot more like UA at DEN/ORD rather than what they are getting right now.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:11 pm

NK has plenty of opportunities to break more monopolies, if they chose to continue expanding DTW under new management. From the sounds of it in the quarterly earnings call, it doesn't seem as likely we'll be seeing many new routes from them since they allegedly would like to expand in larger constrained markets.
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winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
First of all if international connecting traffic is where they make their money how comes there is number nothing in the pipeline and number two was does every international increase out of Detroit get balanced out with a like decrease on another route. If international connections were a cash cow at Detroit why is there never any meaningful increase.


It's called capacity discipline, and it's a staple concept of this industry. I recommend you engage around some helpful literature to better educate yourself on the concept

klm617 wrote:
Where Delta will lose their pricing power is on the low end fares.


That's of course incorrect unless you're envisioning a scenario where a carrier has more capacity in/out of DTW than DL. Until that's the case, DL will always have the capacity and the deep pockets needed to discount where they need to in order to shift even cheap share if it's needed. Delta has been effectively contending with a notable and growing NK in their hubs now for the better part of a decade and they're still churning out massive revenue premiums and profits on account of hub strength.

klm617 wrote:
As fare as me being beholden to Delta yes that at the moment is true because NK can not give my anything significantly better than Delta does when it comes to the Y cabin so of course I'm choosing Delta but the minute someone offers me more bang for my buck I will chose a different option.


And with that anecdotal piece there you've proven my point as to why even with NK expansion DL will likely retain their aggregate pricing power in DTW. Thank you.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:22 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
First of all if international connecting traffic is where they make their money how comes there is number nothing in the pipeline and number two was does every international increase out of Detroit get balanced out with a like decrease on another route. If international connections were a cash cow at Detroit why is there never any meaningful increase.


It's called capacity discipline, and it's a staple concept of this industry. I recommend you engage around some helpful literature to better educate yourself on the concept

klm617 wrote:
Where Delta will lose their pricing power is on the low end fares.


That's of course incorrect unless you're envisioning a scenario where a carrier has more capacity in/out of DTW than DL. Until that's the case, DL will always have the capacity and the deep pockets needed to discount where they need to in order to shift even cheap share if it's needed. Delta has been effectively contending with a notable and growing NK in their hubs now for the better part of a decade and they're still churning out massive revenue premiums and profits on account of hub strength.

klm617 wrote:
As fare as me being beholden to Delta yes that at the moment is true because NK can not give my anything significantly better than Delta does when it comes to the Y cabin so of course I'm choosing Delta but the minute someone offers me more bang for my buck I will chose a different option.


And with that anecdotal piece there you've proven my point as to why even with NK expansion DL will likely retain their aggregate pricing power in DTW. Thank you.


That is not what is meant by pricing power. When a competitor comes in Delta has to match their lower fares to stay competitive where as when Delta has a monopoly in a given market they can dictate what the lowest fare will be. Pricing power allows them to dictate the fares that are charged rather then a competitor setting the bar lower for Delta to either match that lowest fare or lose market share. Again the are not practicing capacity discipline at ATL, BOS, or even MSP for that matter. So again if connections were where Delta is making it's money out of Detroit there would be straight up growth.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:25 pm

flymco753 wrote:
NK has plenty of opportunities to break more monopolies, if they chose to continue expanding DTW under new management. From the sounds of it in the quarterly earnings call, it doesn't seem as likely we'll be seeing many new routes from them since they allegedly would like to expand in larger constrained markets.


I have always said that DTW is not a priority for NK and still maintain that as there really has not been growth out of the Detroit market except for maybe MBJ and PBI otherwise the growth is coming through new cities being added and Detroit being connected to them. It's time to see EWR, BDL, BNA, SRQ and VPS
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winginit
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:42 pm

klm617 wrote:
That is not what is meant by pricing power. When a competitor comes in Delta has to match their lower fares to stay competitive where as when Delta has a monopoly in a given market they can dictate what the lowest fare will be. Pricing power allows them to dictate the fares that are charged rather then a competitor setting the bar lower for Delta to either match that lowest fare or lose market share.


We're saying the same thing here. I think you would find this helpful reading.

klm617 wrote:
Again the are not practicing capacity discipline at ATL


Delta have come right out and said that Atlanta is the most profitable hub in the world, and more capacity equates to more profits. That is clearly not the case at DTW.

klm617 wrote:
BOS


BOS is a market share play in the same vein as LAX and SEA, which is an entirely different beast than an established hub as you well know. They're replicating what they did in NYC almost a decade ago.

klm617 wrote:
or even MSP for that matter.


Incorrect. DL/NW's capacity at DTW/MSP have trended exceptionally closely to one another over the past ten years, and the gap is easily explained by MSP's superior economic growth:

DL/NW Capacity (Seats) by Hub
Image

klm617 wrote:
I have always said that DTW is not a priority for NK and still maintain that


Image

If that graph doesn't to you clearly display prioritized growth then you won't live to see growth at DTW that satisfies you.
 
klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:05 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
That is not what is meant by pricing power. When a competitor comes in Delta has to match their lower fares to stay competitive where as when Delta has a monopoly in a given market they can dictate what the lowest fare will be. Pricing power allows them to dictate the fares that are charged rather then a competitor setting the bar lower for Delta to either match that lowest fare or lose market share.


We're saying the same thing here. I think you would find this helpful reading.

klm617 wrote:
Again the are not practicing capacity discipline at ATL


Delta have come right out and said that Atlanta is the most profitable hub in the world, and more capacity equates to more profits. That is clearly not the case at DTW.

klm617 wrote:
BOS


BOS is a market share play in the same vein as LAX and SEA, which is an entirely different beast than an established hub as you well know. They're replicating what they did in NYC almost a decade ago.

klm617 wrote:
or even MSP for that matter.


Incorrect. DL/NW's capacity at DTW/MSP have trended exceptionally closely to one another over the past ten years, and the gap is easily explained by MSP's superior economic growth:

DL/NW Capacity (Seats) by Hub
Image

klm617 wrote:
I have always said that DTW is not a priority for NK and still maintain that


Image

If that graph doesn't to you clearly display prioritized growth then you will never live to see growth at DTW that satisfies you. Never.


Of course ATL is the most profitable because it has double the flights than DTW has. We also can not say that Detroit couldn't be as profitable or maybe even do better if it had the same amount of flights because we will never know how good Detroit could be if it had the same level of service that ATL has. But if anything CLT could be an indicator by how profitable it is will less O?D. It really has nothing to do with the O/D of any given city but the mass that you flow through it.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:07 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
That is not what is meant by pricing power. When a competitor comes in Delta has to match their lower fares to stay competitive where as when Delta has a monopoly in a given market they can dictate what the lowest fare will be. Pricing power allows them to dictate the fares that are charged rather then a competitor setting the bar lower for Delta to either match that lowest fare or lose market share.


We're saying the same thing here. I think you would find this helpful reading.

klm617 wrote:
Again the are not practicing capacity discipline at ATL


Delta have come right out and said that Atlanta is the most profitable hub in the world, and more capacity equates to more profits. That is clearly not the case at DTW.

klm617 wrote:
BOS


BOS is a market share play in the same vein as LAX and SEA, which is an entirely different beast than an established hub as you well know. They're replicating what they did in NYC almost a decade ago.

klm617 wrote:
or even MSP for that matter.


Incorrect. DL/NW's capacity at DTW/MSP have trended exceptionally closely to one another over the past ten years, and the gap is easily explained by MSP's superior economic growth:

DL/NW Capacity (Seats) by Hub
Image

klm617 wrote:
I have always said that DTW is not a priority for NK and still maintain that


Image

If that graph doesn't to you clearly display prioritized growth then you won't live to see growth at DTW that satisfies you.


Again with the NK chart you are just showing growth at DTW in order to get a better picture of where NK priorities lie you have to do a graph of their entire network and compare the markets.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:10 pm

klm617 wrote:
Of course ATL is the most profitable because it has double the flights than DTW has. We also can not say that Detroit couldn't be as profitable or maybe even do better if it had the same amount of flights because we will never know how good Detroit could be if it had the same level of service that ATL has.


And yet we have public data speaking to the cost side of the equation that can allude to what the outcome would be. The metric is called Cost per Enplaned Passenger (CPE) and you'll find that ATL absolutely mops the floor with just about everyone else except CLT per this source.

That, along with geography, strongly implies that even if DTW were the size of ATL measured by flights, it wouldn't be nearly as profitable. Do you have facts that allude to the contrary?

klm617 wrote:
Again with the NK chart you are just showing growth at DTW in order to get a better picture of where NK priorities lie you have to do a graph of their entire network and compare the markets.


I've posted a comparison graph elsewhere I think even on this thread as you well know, and you're free to go find it. DTW is NK's fourth largest station in the country, so there's your evidence that it's a priority whether or not you choose to accept that. Sure NK will never have the presence at DTW that they have at FLL or MCO, but nor will DTW ever be as appealing a destination as FLL or MCO.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7267
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 pm

This makes for good bathroom reading.....
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:32 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Of course ATL is the most profitable because it has double the flights than DTW has. We also can not say that Detroit couldn't be as profitable or maybe even do better if it had the same amount of flights because we will never know how good Detroit could be if it had the same level of service that ATL has.


And yet we have public data speaking to the cost side of the equation that can allude to what the outcome would be. The metric is called Cost per Enplaned Passenger (CPE) and you'll find that ATL absolutely mops the floor with just about everyone else except CLT per this source.

That, along with geography, strongly implies that even if DTW were the size of ATL measured by flights, it wouldn't be nearly as profitable. Do you have facts that allude to the contrary?

klm617 wrote:
Again with the NK chart you are just showing growth at DTW in order to get a better picture of where NK priorities lie you have to do a graph of their entire network and compare the markets.


I've posted a comparison graph elsewhere I think even on this thread as you well know, and you're free to go find it. DTW is NK's fourth largest station in the country, so there's your evidence that it's a priority whether or not you choose to accept that. Sure NK will never have the presence at DTW that they have at FLL or MCO, but nor will DTW ever be as appealing a destination as FLL or MCO.


Yes but the cost per enplanement goes down with every passenger that goes through the airport so Detroit being 1/3 the size of ATL we could divide that number by there to get a more accurate cost of what that might be if Detroit was the size of ATL. Again refer to AA's operation at CLT.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:32 pm

:thumbsup:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This makes for good bathroom reading.....
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:46 am

klm617 wrote:
Yes but the cost per enplanement goes down with every passenger that goes through the airport so Detroit being 1/3 the size of ATL we could divide that number by there to get a more accurate cost of what that might be if Detroit was the size of ATL. Again refer to AA's operation at CLT.


That of course is not a definitive fact over time in that massive infrastructure investments would be needed to bring DTW to a size that comes even close to ATL that would thus increase costs needed to be spread around per passenger.

Additionally, even if you divide the DTW figure by three (which is flawed math for reasons above), you get 3.30 compared to ATL's 2.61. That's a full 26% higher. Nice try, but your argument isn't holding much water here and again entirely discounts ATL's superior geography for lucrative East/West traffic that pumps up the revenue side of the equation.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This makes for good bathroom reading.....


I do hope you can see all of my pretty charts on mobile and of course all of the data that klm is bringing to the table... :laughing:
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:55 pm

Would be great to see NK give DTW-ANC a try.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7267
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:08 pm

Ok now you’ve really jumped the shark....
 
winginit
Posts: 2546
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:12 pm

klm617 wrote:
Would be great to see NK give DTW-ANC a try.


I think even Spirit knows that what would be 6+ hours aboard their aircraft would push the bounds of sanity.

At nearly 3,000 miles, DTW-ANC would be NK's longest route by quite a margin (FLL-LIM is 2,627 miles).

People go to Alaska for what is often high-end tourism, and they sure as hell aren't going to fly Spirit to get there.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1058
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:49 pm

If NK does go to ANC, it will be to SEA or PDX or OAK, places that have decent O&D to ANC that can probably be fare stimulated.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:52 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Would be great to see NK give DTW-ANC a try.


I think even Spirit knows that what would be 6+ hours aboard their aircraft would push the bounds of sanity.

At nearly 3,000 miles, DTW-ANC would be NK's longest route by quite a margin (FLL-LIM is 2,627 miles).

People go to Alaska for what is often high-end tourism, and they sure as hell aren't going to fly Spirit to get there.


All your points are valid but 3 weekly summer only at the NK fares I bet they could stimulate a fare amount of traffic on that route. Also if I can save $300 on a round trip from DTW-ANC and get a nonstop I'm on it no matter how much my land and sea package costs. I have been to Alaska and I am by no means a big spender. I travel when it's within my budget.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:54 pm

drdisque wrote:
If NK does go to ANC, it will be to SEA or PDX or OAK, places that have decent O&D to ANC that can probably be fare stimulated.


Detroit already has a decent O/D to ANC with zero competition. It is one of the top O/D markets that is not served out of Detroit nonstop.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
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