Q1 International from T-100, good, bad and ugly (and there's a couple of those)
Moral of the story here, it's Q1, loads are always going to be lower, just by nature, plenty of capacity increases/less cancellations, and more passengers riding in many places, but capacity has definitely outweighed passengers, even with the mostly record numbers (with the exception of Canada) that Massport have posted. I'll post the file if folks want to look at the specific numbers, but overall, not a bad set of results. Q2 is going to get really interesting, with KL, KE, DL, DY all increasing service to AMS, ICN, LIS, EDI, FCO and MAD respectively, sadly won't know the full view of that until nearly Christmas.
Too early for ICN,
CX held firm at 90.2% loads for the quarter flew 753 more pax, but capacity was up 1,100,
NRT is doing well, up 4% to 84.2% with nearly 2,000 more pax flying in the 3 months. which considering there's no real capacity option to increase right now, is impressive.
PEK - not great, capacity cut back by 15,387 seats, and 12,470 drop in pax, for an effective drop of 1.0% to 78.1%
PVG - not great either, increase of 11,025 seats, but only 7,612 increase in pax dropping loads to 73.5%, 2.6% down
The WS effect well and truly underway, with big drops of 2,316, (YHZ), 11,270 (YUL) and 2,591 (YYZ) , dropping more than gains by PD 1,740 and 0.5% loads and KV (Sky regional), picking up some of the market by grabbing about 5,100 for YUL, but nowhere near enough, so Canada drops by over 10,000 for the quarter, a trend that continues per the Massport reports in the future months.
Some routes are too small to report, however the bigger ones went as follows:
AUA - DL took a bit of market share from B6, logging 3,944 pax on 4,395 seats for 89.7% loads, B6 increased their numbers by 16,478, but loads dropped by 3.9% overall.
BDA - small movements on this one, but one of the worst routes for both DL and B6 with Mid 50%'s average for the quarter. B6 hurt by adding capacity of 1,920 seats, , but number of pax dropped by 120 and loads fell to 51.6%
HAV - 2,400 pax on 3,840 seats for 62.6%, however March was 77.6%, so things are moving up a bit.
NAS - B6 increased capacity by over 11,000 seats, but only mustered an additional 7,800 pax to drop their loads by 6% to 80.1%
PAP - Big increase in capacity here by 3,300 seats, 1,300 pax meant a drop of nearly 20% in load factor, not sure this one worked.
PUJ - B6 took another hit here on loads, 9,100 extra seats, ,7,000 extra pax for a 4.8% drop. meanwhile DL and AA, who are offering a lot less in the way of capacity (essentially 1 weekly) both increased their numbers in percentage terms, despite combining for only 600 pax increase.
SDQ - another load hit here 6,500 increase in capacity, 2,960 extra pax for a 7.1% reduction to 80%
SJU - continues to rebound a bit 10,000 increase in capacity with 8,800 increase in pax and a 0.6% increase to 84.9%
STI - another big hit here 9,100 increase in capacity but only 4,300 pax for an 11% drop to 75%
SXM - the return to the show provided 3,900 pax for 86.6%, way down from the 2017 numbers, but nice to see it back on the rotation again.
MEX - continues to struggle 56.8% for the quarter, big increase in capacity due to the 320's being used, however only around 500 more pax for the quarter. March was 66.3%, means Jan/Feb were horrible.
PTY - held it's own despite the continuing capacity increase slight drop by 2.3% with nearly 2,000 more pax flying
SAL - 75.8% on this route with nearly 12,000 through the door.
AMS - slight surprise here with 2,100 less pax flying the route 2.5% reduction in loads to 79.1%
BCN - settling in nicely in the winter months 78.6% loads on 18,761 pax.
CDG - the incumbents both increased pax counts, AF (4,580), DL (622), DY came in with an additional 16,700 in the market for a 71.5% load, equivalent to DL but around 50% of the flights.
DUB - EI gained an extra 7.000 pax during the quarter for a 4.7% increase in loads to 84.8%
FCO - nice job by AZ given all their troubles an additional 1,700 pax for an 83.9% load
FRA - increase of 1,450 pax but overall a sluggish 75,6% load, albeit 0.5% up over the prior year.
KEF - enough has been written about WW, so won't go into that. Their last reports ended up at 69.1% loads, but it is abundently clear that FI did not take up the slack, KEF overall was down nearly 20,000 over 2018 and FI was only up 1,600, the models were very different and it's not transferred to FI in any meaningful amount.
LGW - move to daily over last year, 8,300 additional pax and managed 80% loads. However Jan/Feb were low, because March was 89.1% with around 19,000 total pax.
LHR - BA dropped around 1,400 pax and loads down to 71.5%,
DL increased pax count by 2,800, but with a capacity increase of 7,000 seats dropped their loads by 4.2% to 58.6%.
VS increased by 1,200 but also increased capacity by 3,500 and dropped to 64.8%
LIS- TP dropped 5.3% in terms of loads as 2,500 less pax on the route and this is before DL started in May.
MAD - capacity increased by 11,000 as IB went year round, increased of 5,700, which dropped overall loads to 66.5%
MUC - increase of 4,100 pax, above the 2,800 increase in capacity to reach 74.8% for the quarter
PDL - transition to lower capacity really helped with 2,600 reduction in seats and 1,050 increase in pax for a 14.7% increase in loads to 82.9%
DOH - interesting one, flew the 773 for Q1, with a whopping 14,066 increase in seats over 2018, pulled in 8.800 additional pax for a load of 73.9%, which was only 3.1% down on prior year, considering how rough that could have been, worked out ok for them. March was 73%,
DXB - dropped 3,400 pax in Q1 vs 2018 for a 6.3% drop in loads to 81.2%
IST - dropped 1,600 pax but 2,600 seats which converted into a slight increase of 1.4% to 81.5%
TLV - another interesting one, flipped from a 763 to a 772 with a nearly 4,000 count increase in seats, (217 to 275 average) , an additional 2,400 pax for a 75.7% load, which was a 3.7% drop from the prior year despite the big increase in capacity.
BOG - drop of 3.7% yoy, but a 6,000 increase in seats with a 4,190 increase in pax for 77.4% overall.
GRU - 79,6% for the quarter, with 17,659 on board.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.