It appears that As doesn't like SeaTac's future separate north expansion and has come up with a different plan. I can see the merits of AS plan especially if you are thinking of the airport as a connecting hub and not an O&D heavy airport like LAX.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9450eaf6-8d ... lines.html

717atOGG wrote:

ANA will be shifting SEA-NRT to HND effective March 29, 2020, on a 787-8 with a schedule and flight # change (178/177 to 118/117), and this flight will go on sale on 11/26/19.

NH 118 dep. HND 9:00 pm arr. SEA 2:10 pm
NH 117 dep. SEA 4:40 pm arr. HND 7:00 pm (+1)

Source: https://onemileatatime.com/all-nippon-a ... a-flights/

That will only leave JL as the only airline flying SEA-NRT in April, unless JL decides to make the move as well.

gmcc wrote:

It appears that As doesn't like SeaTac's future separate north expansion and has come up with a different plan. I can see the merits of AS plan especially if you are thinking of the airport as a connecting hub and not an O&D heavy airport like LAX.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9450eaf6-8d ... lines.html

I'll believe that job when I see it.

Max 10 rollout is today. Any pics?

gmcc wrote:

It appears that As doesn't like SeaTac's future separate north expansion and has come up with a different plan. I can see the merits of AS plan especially if you are thinking of the airport as a connecting hub and not an O&D heavy airport like LAX.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9450eaf6-8d ... lines.html

So Alaska won’t be happy with A, then Delta won’t be happy with B, and we’ll come up with some crappy plan C. No wonder SEA is such a wreck.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... yptr=yahoo

Seattle will be unable to accommodate projected passenger growth by 2050.

The Puget Sound region may need several airports to cope with its surging growth, says the man leading a study of the sector.

Josh Brown, the executive director of the Puget Sound Regional Council and former Kitsap County executive, is leading an effort to document exactly how crowded the skies are and how much airplane congestion the area faces in the next 30 years. His group is also examining what steps regional planners and airport managers can take now to help manage the growth.

If SEA had 2.5% passenger growth annually, by 2050 SEA would be handling 108 million passengers. If that growth were 4% it would need to accommodate 140 Million passengers. This is based on 50 Million passengers in 2019.

Prost wrote:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/11/25/sea-tac-puget-sound-regional-council-josh-brown.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

Seattle will be unable to accommodate projected passenger growth by 2050.

The Puget Sound region may need several airports to cope with its surging growth, says the man leading a study of the sector.

Josh Brown, the executive director of the Puget Sound Regional Council and former Kitsap County executive, is leading an effort to document exactly how crowded the skies are and how much airplane congestion the area faces in the next 30 years. His group is also examining what steps regional planners and airport managers can take now to help manage the growth.

If SEA had 2.5% passenger growth annually, by 2050 SEA would be handling 108 million passengers. If that growth were 4% it would need to accommodate 140 Million passengers. This is based on 50 Million passengers in 2019.

The economic, cyclic downturn before this happens.

Wow, MUC-SEA goes from no flights last summer to 9x weekly this summer! A resurgent Condor, freed from TCX is relaunching a seasonal 3x weekly MUC-SEA flight. Operates June 2 - October 1. FRA stays as daily. LH's MUC flight starts June 1, so it really is a quick ramp up from 0 to 100!

TBH, SEA may be the most successful N. American longhaul destination for DE. From seasonal 3x weekly flight back in 2011 to year round daily to near daily FRA and seasonal MUC

Enilria's update also showed that AS is launching summer seasonal 2nd frequencies to OMA, PIT, and SBA. SBA has grown from a CR7 to double daily 737.

Here are the Q2 2019 PDEW's of top domestic routes out of SEA that aren't currently served by AS:
SEA-CLT - 203 (over 29% connecting to SEA from CLT on airlines other than AA)
SEA-CLE - 165
SEA-CVG - 148 (over 33% connecting to SEA from CVG on airlines other than DL)
SEA-ORF - 114
SEA-JAX - 110
SEA-BDL - 81
SEA-MEM - 79
SEA-RIC - 68
SEA-SDF - 66
SEA-MSN - 60 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-TUL - 60 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-GRR - 58
SEA-BUF - 58
SEA-RSW - 55
SEA-DSM - 55 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)

AS could add SEA-CLE, SEA-JAX, and SEA-ORF nonstop service as there is likely enough O&D to CLE, JAX, and ORF from SEA to support 1 daily nonstop to these 3 markets from SEA on AS.

While there are some destinations with more demand to SEA than DSM, MSN, and TUL that aren't currently served by AS, AS could add SEA-DSM, SEA-MSN, and SEA-TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets since (a) there is likely enough O&D to easily fill a E-175 regional jet on these three routes and (b) these three routes are within the range of E-175 regional jets.

AS could also add SEA-CVG nonstop service in order to better compete against DL in the SEA market since
(a) CVG is one of the top destinations not currently served by AS,
(b) there are business ties between Seattle and Greater Cincinnati such as the significant Amazon presence in Northern Kentucky and the Boeing-GE Aviation business relationship to support SEA-CVG nonstop service on AS in addition to DL,
(c) DL's eastbound SEA-CVG nonstop flights are currently red-eye flights that depart from SEA in the evening and arrive at CVG in the early hours, whereas AS would likely operate a daytime nonstop flight to CVG from SEA if it adds service to CVG,
(d) there are some business travelers in both the Cincinnati and Seattle markets who prefer a daytime nonstop flight to a red-eye flight,
and
(e) over 33% of passengers traveling between SEA and CVG were connecting on airlines other than DL in Q2 2019.

While AA already serves CLT nonstop from SEA, AS could add SEA-CLT nonstop service since
(a) AS would be able to connect passengers onto AA nonstop flights to East Coast destinations at CLT (and vice versa) if it adds SEA-CLT nonstop service,
(b) there are some AS FF's in the SEA market that prefer to fly on AS over AA,
(c) AS FF's can no longer earn AS FF miles on AA domestic flights (with the exception of AA-operated flights booked through AS with an AS flight number),
(d) AS FF's will no longer be able to redeem AS FF miles on AA flights (effective 3/1/2020),
(e) CLT is the largest market in the contiguous U.S. that has nonstop service to the West Coast on only one airline,
(f) CLT has more demand to SEA than the other domestic markets that aren't currently served by AS,
and
(g) over 29% of passengers traveling between SEA and CLT were connecting on airlines other than AA in Q2 2019.

The BUF-SEA number could increase if not move to SYR, Amazon is building one of the largest distribution centers about 20miles north of Syracuse. This will be the 2nd largest distribution center in the world. While Syracuse doesn’t warrant the service by it self, if it were to happen it would definitely draw those BUF-SEA passengers to SYR as it’s 2hrs east of it.

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:

The BUF-SEA number could increase if not move to SYR, Amazon is building one of the largest distribution centers about 20miles north of Syracuse. This will be the 2nd largest distribution center in the world. While Syracuse doesn’t warrant the service by it self, if it were to happen it would definitely draw those BUF-SEA passengers to SYR as it’s 2hrs east of it.

Those distribution centers don't really have much impact on travel. It's not like you will regularly have engineers and executives travelling to a warehouse.

jplatts wrote:

Here are the Q2 2019 PDEW's of top domestic routes out of SEA that aren't currently served by AS:
SEA-CLT - 203 (over 29% connecting to SEA from CLT on airlines other than AA)
SEA-CLE - 165
SEA-CVG - 148 (over 33% connecting to SEA from CVG on airlines other than DL)
SEA-ORF - 114
SEA-JAX - 110
SEA-BDL - 81
SEA-MEM - 79
SEA-RIC - 68
SEA-SDF - 66
SEA-MSN - 60 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-TUL - 60 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-GRR - 58
SEA-BUF - 58
SEA-RSW - 55
SEA-DSM - 55 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)

AS could add SEA-CLE, SEA-JAX, and SEA-ORF nonstop service as there is likely enough O&D to CLE, JAX, and ORF from SEA to support 1 daily nonstop to these 3 markets from SEA on AS.

While there are some destinations with more demand to SEA than DSM, MSN, and TUL that aren't currently served by AS, AS could add SEA-DSM, SEA-MSN, and SEA-TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets since (a) there is likely enough O&D to easily fill a E-175 regional jet on these three routes and (b) these three routes are within the range of E-175 regional jets.

AS could also add SEA-CVG nonstop service in order to better compete against DL in the SEA market since
(a) CVG is one of the top destinations not currently served by AS,
(b) there are business ties between Seattle and Greater Cincinnati such as the significant Amazon presence in Northern Kentucky and the Boeing-GE Aviation business relationship to support SEA-CVG nonstop service on AS in addition to DL,
(c) DL's eastbound SEA-CVG nonstop flights are currently red-eye flights that depart from SEA in the evening and arrive at CVG in the early hours, whereas AS would likely operate a daytime nonstop flight to CVG from SEA if it adds service to CVG,
(d) there are some business travelers in both the Cincinnati and Seattle markets who prefer a daytime nonstop flight to a red-eye flight,
and
(e) over 33% of passengers traveling between SEA and CVG were connecting on airlines other than DL in Q2 2019.

While AA already serves CLT nonstop from SEA, AS could add SEA-CLT nonstop service since
(a) AS would be able to connect passengers onto AA nonstop flights to East Coast destinations at CLT (and vice versa) if it adds SEA-CLT nonstop service,
(b) there are some AS FF's in the SEA market that prefer to fly on AS over AA,
(c) AS FF's can no longer earn AS FF miles on AA domestic flights (with the exception of AA-operated flights booked through AS with an AS flight number),
(d) AS FF's will no longer be able to redeem AS FF miles on AA flights (effective 3/1/2020),
(e) CLT is the largest market in the contiguous U.S. that has nonstop service to the West Coast on only one airline,
(f) CLT has more demand to SEA than the other domestic markets that aren't currently served by AS,
and
(g) over 29% of passengers traveling between SEA and CLT were connecting on airlines other than AA in Q2 2019.

I wonder what the chances are (presumably slim-to-none) of ever seeing AS in YYZ. AC is currently only 1x/day. AS could feed their hub + get a slice of any Amazon travel (about 1,400 people in the YYZ-based Amazon tech hub here).

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:

The BUF-SEA number could increase if not move to SYR, Amazon is building one of the largest distribution centers about 20miles north of Syracuse. This will be the 2nd largest distribution center in the world. While Syracuse doesn’t warrant the service by it self, if it were to happen it would definitely draw those BUF-SEA passengers to SYR as it’s 2hrs east of it.

If Upstate NY gets a direct to SEA it’ll be because of all the traffic coming from or going to Asia not because of Amazon. A warehouse doesn’t generate the air travel like a corporate office does.

Prost wrote:

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/11/25/sea-tac-puget-sound-regional-council-josh-brown.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

Seattle will be unable to accommodate projected passenger growth by 2050.

The Puget Sound region may need several airports to cope with its surging growth, says the man leading a study of the sector.

Josh Brown, the executive director of the Puget Sound Regional Council and former Kitsap County executive, is leading an effort to document exactly how crowded the skies are and how much airplane congestion the area faces in the next 30 years. His group is also examining what steps regional planners and airport managers can take now to help manage the growth.

If SEA had 2.5% passenger growth annually, by 2050 SEA would be handling 108 million passengers. If that growth were 4% it would need to accommodate 140 Million passengers. This is based on 50 Million passengers in 2019.

There isn't room to house 30 years of 2.5% compounded annual population growth in the SEA CSA. It can't expand infinitely the way Dallas and Houston can. It took the Bay Area nearly 40 years to double from 1950. Nor can you expect propensity for travel to climb without end.

Washington’s next commercial airport one step closer to taking flight

Second Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission meeting Jan. 9 - Open to the public.

OLYMPIA – 2020 kicks off with more work researching and discussing the location of Washington’s next commercial airport as the Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission (CACC) (pdf 76 kb) meets Jan. 9, at Sea-Tac Airport.

https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/news/2019/12/2 ... ing-flight

Anyone want to go?

murchmo wrote:

Washington’s next commercial airport one step closer to taking flight

Second Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission meeting Jan. 9 - Open to the public.

OLYMPIA – 2020 kicks off with more work researching and discussing the location of Washington’s next commercial airport as the Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission (CACC) (pdf 76 kb) meets Jan. 9, at Sea-Tac Airport.

https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/news/2019/12/2 ... ing-flight

Anyone want to go?

They need another commercial airport in the south Sound.

wedgetail737 wrote:

murchmo wrote:

Washington’s next commercial airport one step closer to taking flight

Second Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission meeting Jan. 9 - Open to the public.

OLYMPIA – 2020 kicks off with more work researching and discussing the location of Washington’s next commercial airport as the Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission (CACC) (pdf 76 kb) meets Jan. 9, at Sea-Tac Airport.

https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/news/2019/12/2 ... ing-flight

Anyone want to go?

They need another commercial airport in the south Sound.

That's PDX. Once your South of Oly, it's likely as quick to PDX as anywhere.

If, big if, we could open up PAE to more flights, and get more airlines to utilize BLI (disclosure, I live a couple miles from BLI), and get connections somewhere, it would relieve a goodly chunk of SEA pressure.

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438009

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