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smokeybandit
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:39 am

Anne Arundel First Alert

#MDTravel | #BWI | We have learned that Checkpoint A at BWI was closed to support effective staffing at Checkpoints B and C. The closure is reportedly due to excessive call outs from TSA agents. We are not sure how long this closure will go on for and we have requested further comment from Jonathan Dean who is the BWI Public Information Officer. This past Friday we reported that there were no effects to TSA Operations due to the Government Shutdown.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:53 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
Sun Country is re-entering DC market with flight to MSP from IAD.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 512134002/

I wonder if they regret leaving DCA? Why did they leave in the first place? Was it the LAN tag?

A good get, new airline. Any idea what gate they will share?



Any idea what happened with the slot? I think they ended service a while ago, maybe just discontinued/deleted?
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:04 pm

blockski wrote:
Agenda and documents for this week’s MWAA Board Meeting are up: http://www.mwaa.com/about/january-16-20 ... e-meetings

The air traffic stats are interesting, as the Dulles growth continued through November, well above previous years. Dulles traffic is up 5.1% YTD, and creeping back above DCA as the busier airport (though both still trail BWI). In November 2018 alone, IAD domestic is up nearly 12% over the previous year.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf

There are some other files with pictures of the Dulles Metro project, but the most interesting is the progress photos from the DCA expansion:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ey.pdf.pdf



Has AA reduced flights as a result of construction at DCA? I find it interesting they increased activity at IAD while decreasing at DCA. I wonder if the new LAX service drew some folks away from the DCA flight. And I wonder if UA lost any on their LAX flight.

IAD I imagine would continue to grow domestically in the short term (2019) as UA continues to reallocate its connects to IAD from EWR.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:49 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
blockski wrote:
Agenda and documents for this week’s MWAA Board Meeting are up: http://www.mwaa.com/about/january-16-20 ... e-meetings

The air traffic stats are interesting, as the Dulles growth continued through November, well above previous years. Dulles traffic is up 5.1% YTD, and creeping back above DCA as the busier airport (though both still trail BWI). In November 2018 alone, IAD domestic is up nearly 12% over the previous year.
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... eports.pdf

There are some other files with pictures of the Dulles Metro project, but the most interesting is the progress photos from the DCA expansion:
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... ey.pdf.pdf



Has AA reduced flights as a result of construction at DCA? I find it interesting they increased activity at IAD while decreasing at DCA. I wonder if the new LAX service drew some folks away from the DCA flight. And I wonder if UA lost any on their LAX flight.

IAD I imagine would continue to grow domestically in the short term (2019) as UA continues to reallocate its connects to IAD from EWR.


I don't think the construction has really impacted AA at all; they've maintained apron space for all of the Gate 35X RJs with construction.

The report I linked to above is from MWAA; they cite AA at DCA with a 2.5% decrease year over year, due to decreased load factors, not reduced service or capacity.

Also, don't read too much into the percentage increase at IAD from AA; that's off of a small base. This report is for November, in which AA was #3 at Dulles with 86k pax that month, and a 4.4% market share. The year before, they had 70k pax in November. So it doesn't take much to offer a big increase off such a small base.

The #3 at DCA was Delta with 295k pax, with a 14.8% share of the market.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:26 am

AA should not be affected by this... their “hub” at DCA is smaller than their non-hubs at BOS and equally sized non hubs in MCO and LAS. They should not be impacted.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:38 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:

AA should not be affected by this... their “hub” at DCA is smaller than their non-hubs at BOS and equally sized non hubs in MCO and LAS. They should not be impacted.


AA at DCA cannot even be compared to AA at LAS/MCO. Come ON!
Finally headed to DORKFEST! Sept 7, STL-LAX-PHX-STL. :cloudnine:
 
jplatts
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:10 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:

AA should not be affected by this... their “hub” at DCA is smaller than their non-hubs at BOS and equally sized non hubs in MCO and LAS. They should not be impacted.


AA at DCA cannot even be compared to AA at LAS/MCO. Come ON!


AA operates 255 daily departures out of its DCA hub, and AA's DCA hub is actually bigger by number of daily departures than some other US3 hubs. DCA is also a true connecting hub for AA since AA offers connections to other East Coast destinations at DCA.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:31 pm

UA435 just landed at DCA from BTR. Any idea what this might be for? Honor flight?
 
UALFAson
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:59 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
Has AA reduced flights as a result of construction at DCA? I find it interesting they increased activity at IAD while decreasing at DCA. I wonder if the new LAX service drew some folks away from the DCA flight. And I wonder if UA lost any on their LAX flight.


AA.com is showing 2x daily 738 IAD-LAX service, which is what it was for a long time. During the integration with US after the merger, they downgauged the equipment to a LUS-319 and I think, according to enilria's OAG threads, maybe even reduced to 1x daily for a while. So the current service is just a reinstatement of the status quo. Frankly, I am surprised AA can still sustain this level of service given UA's IAD hub and their competing LAX-DCA service that is more appealing to D.C. folks.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
N292UX
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:44 pm

WN just released their latest schedule extension, and they added weekend-only RIC-TPA service. Sort of surprised that it wasn't NK who added RIC-TPA, but I'm sure they won't be too far behind.
 
NOVAIAD
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:37 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
Also, IAD will add 3 new international destinations - WAW, LOS, and CAIt



I think WAW is the most likely and makes the most sense. Would love to see LO open up a route to IAD.

As for CAI, I don't see IAD being where they would open up their second US destination, especially being so close to JFK.

UA operated IAD-LOS a few years back and terminated the route. Why restart it? If I recall from reading press reports, it was notorious for having frequent drug busts once it arrived.
 
N292UX
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:49 am

In other news, UA has added A319 service on IAD-MSP starting in June. This seems like a route that UA could run mainline jets on a mainline basis, rather than places like PIT, which is a < 1 hour flight. I think along with MSP, places like SAT, DTW, MCI, and CMH seem like cities that could better support a decent amount of mainline service (SAT already has some, but it's seasonal). Places like PIT just don't seem like good options for mainline yet at least.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:02 pm

UALFAson wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
Has AA reduced flights as a result of construction at DCA? I find it interesting they increased activity at IAD while decreasing at DCA. I wonder if the new LAX service drew some folks away from the DCA flight. And I wonder if UA lost any on their LAX flight.


AA.com is showing 2x daily 738 IAD-LAX service, which is what it was for a long time. During the integration with US after the merger, they downgauged the equipment to a LUS-319 and I think, according to enilria's OAG threads, maybe even reduced to 1x daily for a while. So the current service is just a reinstatement of the status quo. Frankly, I am surprised AA can still sustain this level of service given UA's IAD hub and their competing LAX-DCA service that is more appealing to D.C. folks.



If there is increasing interest in LAX, they can't grow at DCA due to slots, so IAD is their only option. If this does well, does UA respond with return of p.s. service at IAD?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:12 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
UALFAson wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
Has AA reduced flights as a result of construction at DCA? I find it interesting they increased activity at IAD while decreasing at DCA. I wonder if the new LAX service drew some folks away from the DCA flight. And I wonder if UA lost any on their LAX flight.


AA.com is showing 2x daily 738 IAD-LAX service, which is what it was for a long time. During the integration with US after the merger, they downgauged the equipment to a LUS-319 and I think, according to enilria's OAG threads, maybe even reduced to 1x daily for a while. So the current service is just a reinstatement of the status quo. Frankly, I am surprised AA can still sustain this level of service given UA's IAD hub and their competing LAX-DCA service that is more appealing to D.C. folks.



If there is increasing interest in LAX, they can't grow at DCA due to slots, so IAD is their only option. If this does well, does UA respond with return of p.s. service at IAD?

I'm assuming it's because UA isn't running nearly as many seats as they used to. They used to be 8-9 times daily and regularly operated one or two of them with 772s, but they're down to 5-6 daily, pretty much always with 739s.
 
boacvc10
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:44 am

I have a question for a.netters who also may be car drivers who travel to/from Washington, DC from/to Crystal City, VA on I-395 and other bridges::Are there incidents of pilots flying extremely low on approach over the bridge on final for runway 19?

I can't give times, dates, but I do travel between DC and the shops at Pentagon city, etc., and return via I-395 or head to that area on I-395 and slow down just at the bend where an incoming aircraft to 19 will make its final right hand turn towards Gravelly Point park and flare to the landing zone on the other side of the creek inlet (estd, 0.25 miles) Generally everybody gets continuous pretty impressive views of aircraft at relatively close distances, and if cameras were encouraged to be able to be mounted on vehicle rooftops, production quality pictures would fill aviation sites of planes that are making the turns at high velocity in landing configuration.

But sometimes, I just can compare one aircraft to another (DCA is a busy airport) and if you are stuck on the roadway near exit 10A or 10C, and an aviation fan, what to do? look at other cars? No. Look at planes!

Some of these aircraft seem to fly L-O-W and L-O-W-E-R -- over the bridge/roadway to the point that I can read the lettering on the nosewheel doors easily and any other fine details.Kinda fun.

Obviously all flights land fine, but what is the minimum altitude that they have to maintain at that distance, and if they have gone below that, are they reported? The other day I saw the passengers almost like they were just about 100 feet or closer away as the aircraft was banking right into the turn while descending. Maybe we should start putting up signs on the rooftops of our cars to tell pilots: if you can read this you are too low. (joke!)
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BWIAirport
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:54 am

boacvc10 wrote:
I have a question for a.netters who also may be car drivers who travel to/from Washington, DC from/to Crystal City, VA on I-395 and other bridges::Are there incidents of pilots flying extremely low on approach over the bridge on final for runway 19?

I can't give times, dates, but I do travel between DC and the shops at Pentagon city, etc., and return via I-395 or head to that area on I-395 and slow down just at the bend where an incoming aircraft to 19 will make its final right hand turn towards Gravelly Point park and flare to the landing zone on the other side of the creek inlet (estd, 0.25 miles) Generally everybody gets continuous pretty impressive views of aircraft at relatively close distances, and if cameras were encouraged to be able to be mounted on vehicle rooftops, production quality pictures would fill aviation sites of planes that are making the turns at high velocity in landing configuration.

But sometimes, I just can compare one aircraft to another (DCA is a busy airport) and if you are stuck on the roadway near exit 10A or 10C, and an aviation fan, what to do? look at other cars? No. Look at planes!

Some of these aircraft seem to fly L-O-W and L-O-W-E-R -- over the bridge/roadway to the point that I can read the lettering on the nosewheel doors easily and any other fine details.Kinda fun.

Obviously all flights land fine, but what is the minimum altitude that they have to maintain at that distance, and if they have gone below that, are they reported? The other day I saw the passengers almost like they were just about 100 feet or closer away as the aircraft was banking right into the turn while descending. Maybe we should start putting up signs on the rooftops of our cars to tell pilots: if you can read this you are too low. (joke!)

https://skyvector.com/files/tpp/1902/pdf/00443RR19.PDF Here's the RNAV chart for 19. It looks like FIROP is closest to the 395 bridge. According to the chart, airliners are crossing this waypoint at under 300 feet. There likely isn't much leeway in these altitudes so close to the runway.
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:42 am

BWIAirport wrote:
boacvc10 wrote:
I have a question for a.netters who also may be car drivers who travel to/from Washington, DC from/to Crystal City, VA on I-395 and other bridges::Are there incidents of pilots flying extremely low on approach over the bridge on final for runway 19?

I can't give times, dates, but I do travel between DC and the shops at Pentagon city, etc., and return via I-395 or head to that area on I-395 and slow down just at the bend where an incoming aircraft to 19 will make its final right hand turn towards Gravelly Point park and flare to the landing zone on the other side of the creek inlet (estd, 0.25 miles) Generally everybody gets continuous pretty impressive views of aircraft at relatively close distances, and if cameras were encouraged to be able to be mounted on vehicle rooftops, production quality pictures would fill aviation sites of planes that are making the turns at high velocity in landing configuration.

But sometimes, I just can compare one aircraft to another (DCA is a busy airport) and if you are stuck on the roadway near exit 10A or 10C, and an aviation fan, what to do? look at other cars? No. Look at planes!

Some of these aircraft seem to fly L-O-W and L-O-W-E-R -- over the bridge/roadway to the point that I can read the lettering on the nosewheel doors easily and any other fine details.Kinda fun.

Obviously all flights land fine, but what is the minimum altitude that they have to maintain at that distance, and if they have gone below that, are they reported? The other day I saw the passengers almost like they were just about 100 feet or closer away as the aircraft was banking right into the turn while descending. Maybe we should start putting up signs on the rooftops of our cars to tell pilots: if you can read this you are too low. (joke!)

https://skyvector.com/files/tpp/1902/pdf/00443RR19.PDF Here's the RNAV chart for 19. It looks like FIROP is closest to the 395 bridge. According to the chart, airliners are crossing this waypoint at under 300 feet. There likely isn't much leeway in these altitudes so close to the runway.

The RNP (Required Navigation Performance) to Runway 19 is quite rare, because a substantial number of the aircraft operating in and out of DCA aren't capable of an RNP approach. RNP isn't just RNAV, it requires additional equipment that most carriers don't bother fitting to their aircraft due to added weight and expense. Runway 19 only has an RNP because an ILS isn't possible (it would require aircraft to fly over P-56, which obviously ain't happening). RNP isn't technically considered a precision approach, but it's as precise of an approach as possible to Runway 19.

If DCA is landing south, then >99% of the time, the River Visual is in use. Landing north (Runway 1) has more options because there's an ILS available. If the airport is restricted to the RNP 19 approach, then many of the arrivals (including essentially all RJs) will be forced to hold until other approach options are available and/or divert. It makes for a real mess on the handful of occasions that happens each year — sort of like when IAD is limited to Runway 30 ops, but worse.

Because they're flying the visual, altitudes can vary. It's only on the RNAV RNP procedure that specific altitude restrictions would be met. In a visual approach, particularly a challenging approach like the River Visual (which is a captain's only approach at some carriers), it can result in approach paths that differ quite significantly. However, the only incident I'm aware of in which an aircraft has even come close to one of the bridges was Air Florida flight 90, which struck the 14th Street Bridge on departure before crashing into the river.
 
717atOGG
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:53 am

Any chance of UA or DL coming to SBY? If they did, UA could do ORD or DL could do ATL or DTW, likely with 50-seaters. While I don't have LF info on AA's flights to CLT or PHL, fares out of SBY are relatively high if that's any indication, and the airport is more convenient for those around Salisbury, southern DE, and those visiting Ocean City. Anyone else think that this is feasible, or is the demand too small and/or everyone is too accustomed to driving to BWI/PHL?
Long live the Boeing 757!
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:06 am

717atOGG wrote:
Any chance of UA or DL coming to SBY? If they did, UA could do ORD or DL could do ATL or DTW, likely with 50-seaters. While I don't have LF info on AA's flights to CLT or PHL, fares out of SBY are relatively high if that's any indication, and the airport is more convenient for those around Salisbury, southern DE, and those visiting Ocean City. Anyone else think that this is feasible, or is the demand too small and/or everyone is too accustomed to driving to BWI/PHL?

I think time will tell. The switch from the Dashes only took place about eight months ago, so it might take some time to evaluate how things are working with an additional ≈60-70 seats per day. Unfortunately it is quite a small market, and with it being reasonably close to BWI and PHL, it might not be a risk anyone else is willing to take. I couldn't really see ORD as a possibility, but ATL or EWR could be.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:55 pm

I think that the more likely alternative to additional service out of SBY would be flights to DOV or ILG, as frontier left a few years ago. No competition within two hours, market of about 50,000 people. I would think UA from DOV to IAD, DL from DOV to ATL/JFK, or F9/NK to MCO/FLL.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:24 pm

MWAA Board meeting agenda and documents are up. Some interesting stuff here:

Year-end traffic numbers for IAD and DCA. IAD is the busier airport again, growing traffic 5.1% over last year: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... report.pdf

Construction updates:

Silver Line Phase 2: some pictures here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... 1_2018.pdf

DCA Expansion: some (new?) renderings of the interior spaces here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... ourney.pdf

MWAA wants to get a 24/7 restaurant at IAD to replace the old gas station: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf

MWAA also amended the terms of their re-bid of the rental car concessions at IAD: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf
 
capitalflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:40 pm

blockski wrote:
MWAA Board meeting agenda and documents are up. Some interesting stuff here:

Year-end traffic numbers for IAD and DCA. IAD is the busier airport again, growing traffic 5.1% over last year: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... report.pdf

Construction updates:

Silver Line Phase 2: some pictures here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... 1_2018.pdf

DCA Expansion: some (new?) renderings of the interior spaces here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... ourney.pdf

MWAA wants to get a 24/7 restaurant at IAD to replace the old gas station: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf

MWAA also amended the terms of their re-bid of the rental car concessions at IAD: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf


So there's going to be a McDonald's on airport property.

Given the year end numbers, is DCA "full" until the new concourse is finished? I guess everything that could be upgauged has been at this point. Only so many 321/752-3 to go around.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:20 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
blockski wrote:
MWAA Board meeting agenda and documents are up. Some interesting stuff here:

Year-end traffic numbers for IAD and DCA. IAD is the busier airport again, growing traffic 5.1% over last year: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... report.pdf

Construction updates:

Silver Line Phase 2: some pictures here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... 1_2018.pdf

DCA Expansion: some (new?) renderings of the interior spaces here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... ourney.pdf

MWAA wants to get a 24/7 restaurant at IAD to replace the old gas station: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf

MWAA also amended the terms of their re-bid of the rental car concessions at IAD: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf


So there's going to be a McDonald's on airport property.

Given the year end numbers, is DCA "full" until the new concourse is finished? I guess everything that could be upgauged has been at this point. Only so many 321/752-3 to go around.


Yeah, basically. I’d expect a McDonalds or something similar. What’s interesting is that they’re choosing to use the old gas station site, and not the remainder of the pad next to the new gas station, which was pitched in the original planning as a potential retail site to complement the gas station.

https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... _fonsi.pdf

Reading between the lines, it sure seems like the bigger reason for decline is AA’s load factors at DCA.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:01 am

blockski wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
blockski wrote:
MWAA Board meeting agenda and documents are up. Some interesting stuff here:

Year-end traffic numbers for IAD and DCA. IAD is the busier airport again, growing traffic 5.1% over last year: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... report.pdf

Construction updates:

Silver Line Phase 2: some pictures here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... 1_2018.pdf

DCA Expansion: some (new?) renderings of the interior spaces here: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... ourney.pdf

MWAA wants to get a 24/7 restaurant at IAD to replace the old gas station: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf

MWAA also amended the terms of their re-bid of the rental car concessions at IAD: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf


So there's going to be a McDonald's on airport property.

Given the year end numbers, is DCA "full" until the new concourse is finished? I guess everything that could be upgauged has been at this point. Only so many 321/752-3 to go around.


Yeah, basically. I’d expect a McDonalds or something similar. What’s interesting is that they’re choosing to use the old gas station site, and not the remainder of the pad next to the new gas station, which was pitched in the original planning as a potential retail site to complement the gas station.

https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... _fonsi.pdf

Reading between the lines, it sure seems like the bigger reason for decline is AA’s load factors at DCA.


Whatever fast food restaurant goes in there will probably do quite well. Gives commuters another option for doing "airport business" and therefore using the Airport Access Road, as opposed to the Dulles Toll Road.
 
N292UX
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:52 am

In other news, UA won the EAS bid for MSS and OGS and will be starting service to ORD and IAD in April.
 
winstonavgeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:40 pm

EgyptAir has proposed new flights to IAD using their 787-9 Dreamliner. The route will be operated 3x weekly, and the start date looks like June 3rd of this year.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2019/
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:24 pm

winstonavgeek wrote:
EgyptAir has proposed new flights to IAD using their 787-9 Dreamliner. The route will be operated 3x weekly, and the start date looks like June 3rd of this year.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2019/

Interesting. I guess I'm not too surprised since I'd assume it's been on their radar for years, but I'm wondering how much of a market is really there. I'm thinking this might be more of a prestige route, but I could be wrong. It's always nice to see new tails and gain some new destinations though.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:37 pm

Hence the reason for 3x daily. Its also another tie into a Star Alliance hub.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:03 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
Hence the reason for 3x daily. Its also another tie into a Star Alliance hub.

I think you mean weekly :bouncy: I realize there will be hub connectivity, but that only has a finite amount of impact, particularly if it's not timed well. It also depends on how well United and EgyptAir actually cooperate (I'm not sure)...just because they're the same alliance doesn't necessarily mean they get along well.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:18 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:
Hence the reason for 3x daily. Its also another tie into a Star Alliance hub.

I think you mean weekly :bouncy: I realize there will be hub connectivity, but that only has a finite amount of impact, particularly if it's not timed well. It also depends on how well United and EgyptAir actually cooperate (I'm not sure)...just because they're the same alliance doesn't necessarily mean they get along well.

Both ways are timed for early morning arrivals, which should maximize onward connections. Only potential issue is the noon departure from IAD which could make it a tight squeeze for connecting passengers.
Next flight: November 23 BA216 IAD-LHR A388
November 24 BA814 LHR-CPH A320

SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:38 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
winstonavgeek wrote:
EgyptAir has proposed new flights to IAD using their 787-9 Dreamliner. The route will be operated 3x weekly, and the start date looks like June 3rd of this year.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2019/

Interesting. I guess I'm not too surprised since I'd assume it's been on their radar for years, but I'm wondering how much of a market is really there. I'm thinking this might be more of a prestige route, but I could be wrong. It's always nice to see new tails and gain some new destinations though.

The Egyptian American population in the DC area is only about 6,000 people as opposed to 39,000 in the New York area and 19,000 in the LA area. This route does not seem to be focused on just the local Egyptian population. I can't image there are that many business or government ties between the two capitals either. I think Egyptair if more focused on connecting people through CAI to various destinations. Browsing FR24 Egyptair flights, MS has a departure bank at about 9 am local and an arrival bank in the evening. This would align fairly well for connection possibilities with an 11 pm departure out of CAI and a 4:50 am arrival into CAI. The JFK flight leaves CAI midmorning and arrives back the next day in the evening missing most connections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Americans
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:28 pm

Looks like another big year for IAD internationally. UA starts TLV, TAP starts LIS, AZ starts FCO and now MS starts CAI. I do have doubts that all these flights are sustainable in the long term, but hope they all succeed.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:23 am

Richmond continues its explosive growth. January pax numbers are up 14.5%. For calendar year 2018 pax numbers surpassed 4 mil for the first time with an 11.5% annual increase.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:10 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Richmond continues its explosive growth. January pax numbers are up 14.5%. For calendar year 2018 pax numbers surpassed 4 mil for the first time with an 11.5% annual increase.

That's crazy. It seems like there have been double digit increases for the last several releases. It's bound to slow at some point, but it's great to see the airport and the city begin to realize their potential. It seems pretty obvious that they need their concourse extension sooner rather than later!
 
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ChaseCLT
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:55 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
Looks like another big year for IAD internationally. UA starts TLV, TAP starts LIS, AZ starts FCO and now MS starts CAI. I do have doubts that all these flights are sustainable in the long term, but hope they all succeed.



I hope they all succeed. TAP had some super low fares. I scoree a couple 1 way’s to Madrid for $150. (Chose a cheap return flight on Delta to Philly and just got a 39$ Amtrak back to DC).

If only United could beef up IAD a little more.
 
RicFlyer
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:26 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Richmond continues its explosive growth. January pax numbers are up 14.5%. For calendar year 2018 pax numbers surpassed 4 mil for the first time with an 11.5% annual increase.

That's crazy. It seems like there have been double digit increases for the last several releases. It's bound to slow at some point, but it's great to see the airport and the city begin to realize their potential. It seems pretty obvious that they need their concourse extension sooner rather than later!


The good news is that they have already started the extension here at RIC!!! The big question is with all this growth why isn't WN expending beyound the 2 flights a week to TPA and 1 flight a week to MCO they have announced???
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:22 pm

RicFlyer wrote:
The big question is with all this growth why isn't WN expending beyound the 2 flights a week to TPA and 1 flight a week to MCO they have announced???

I'm actually more confused by the fact that Frontier hasn't joined the party yet. I guess RIC hasn't come up on their big bingo board they use for route planning.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:02 pm

This is mentioned in other threads, but I thought I’d add it here as well. Air Canada’s investor day presentation is talking about the network opportunities of their addition of the A220 to the fleet, and specifically highlights potential service from IAD to YYC and YVR.

https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/a ... eb2019.pdf

UA does serve IAD-YVR seasonally, but YYC would be a completely new addition.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:17 pm

Some fun tidbits here that have come out of the DC Government's oversight and budget sessions for MWAA. This one in particular highlights the potential for MWAA to build an on-site hotel at DCA, as well as some of the efforts to better integrate DCA to the neighboring business districts via the proposed pedestrian bridge:

https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/ ... pment.html

A hotel might be in the works for Reagan National Airport, according to Jack Potter, CEO of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.

Potter slipped in the news while being questioned by D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson during a oversight hearing Monday.

Exactly where on airport property is unclear, but some type of development could meet folks walking from the $36 million pedestrian bridge promised to Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) as part of its incentive deal with Virginia, Potter said.

“We are also looking on what to do on our end, whether to put a hotel there or some other type of development," Potter said. "But that’s a little further along — a few years out.”


A couple years ago, MWAA amended the official plan for DCA to work on reconfiguring the roadways and build a new parking garage/rental car facility. I would imagine this would free up the current QTA facility for a potential hotel, linking via a walkway into the terminal and into the potential pedestrian bridge: https://www.mwaa.com/about/public-notic ... er-20-2017

EDIT: here's a better link to the modifications to DCA's ALP, and where they might find some land available for an on-site hotel: https://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/file ... irport.pdf
 
smokeybandit
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:53 pm

Anyone know what the delay is in getting the Terminal A expansion started at BWI?
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:24 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Anyone know what the delay is in getting the Terminal A expansion started at BWI?

I believe it's in the design phase right now, along with WN's new maintenance hangar
Next flight: November 23 BA216 IAD-LHR A388
November 24 BA814 LHR-CPH A320

SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:49 pm

A couple of interesting Dulles tidbits this week from Ed Russell at FlightGlobal:

First, from some MWAA press this week, is a target number for annual passengers at Dulles before seeing any major investment: 30m annual pax:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-456437/

While traffic at Dulles is up, MWAA is not ready to commit to some passenger-sought infrastructure improvements. The airport needs to hit 30 million annual passengers before the operator is willing to look at significant new investments – including a replacement for the "temporary" concourses C and D – says Potter.


Then, in a tweet today, Russell notes that UA is considering expanding the Dulles hub with 6-8 total banks, not just six:

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/11 ... 5264456704

UA seems happy with the expanded connection opportunities at IAD; noting that connecting passengers there is cheaper than doing so at EWR, and therefore improving the profitability of not just IAD but also some of the smaller spokes they moved from EWR to IAD...
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:06 pm

I'd be surprised to see Dulles reach 8 banks. That would require a lot of additional frequencies on major routes to create enough connectivity. I'm not sure there's enough growth in the UA fleet to fund that without stalling growth out at other hubs. Six banks seems a bit more feasible in the near term.

Not surprised about the 30 million number. As dumpy as the C/D concourse is, right now there's simply not enough passengers flowing through it to justify the rebuild.
 
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msp747
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:22 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
Not surprised about the 30 million number. As dumpy as the C/D concourse is, right now there's simply not enough passengers flowing through it to justify the rebuild.

I agree that waiting until reaching 30 million is a smart move. They obviously are learning from their mistakes in the past and want to make sure the numbers are stable before committing to more expensive projects. No reason to send landing fees through the roof again, especially now that it appears MWAA finally has them under control (I'm still curious to see what impact the sale of those western lands has on the fees).

At the point the airport does reach 30 million, UA will obviously need more space than what they currently have, so the new bigger/modern C/D concourse makes sense. In the meantime, I think there is more than enough room in A/B to absorb additional UA traffic, if necessary.
 
LoudounHound
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:50 pm

msp747 wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
Not surprised about the 30 million number. As dumpy as the C/D concourse is, right now there's simply not enough passengers flowing through it to justify the rebuild.

I agree that waiting until reaching 30 million is a smart move. They obviously are learning from their mistakes in the past and want to make sure the numbers are stable before committing to more expensive projects. No reason to send landing fees through the roof again, especially now that it appears MWAA finally has them under control (I'm still curious to see what impact the sale of those western lands has on the fees).

At the point the airport does reach 30 million, UA will obviously need more space than what they currently have, so the new bigger/modern C/D concourse makes sense. In the meantime, I think there is more than enough room in A/B to absorb additional UA traffic, if necessary.


I had some extra time before a flight last Tuesday afternoon to walk Concourse A/B, and was surprised how quiet it was between 3:00 and 4:00. Just the same, I don't think that extra capacity would necessarily help UA with its expansion intentions. Transferring between concourses is not optimal at Dulles for a hub operation. Maybe it could work if they used the A gates nearest their express gates, but that's a lot of schlepping.

All in all, some pretty good news for IAD. I know it's been argued here that the Metro station opening in 2020 will not drive growth, but it can't help but add some incrementally. Barring a recession, we might see 30 million pax by 2022. The Alitalia and EgyptAir announcements were a surprise. Maybe we'll see EVA and LOT next year. I had expected the CX flight to go daily by now if it was doing well, though I have no reason to believe it isn't. Does anyone think it's possible that JL could use one of its upcoming HND slots to restart IAD service? Assuming UA moves its NRT flight to HND, and NH remains at NRT, I would think JL could tap into the OW FF base in the D.C. area.
 
blockski
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:37 am

3-4pm would be juuust before the big bank of European arrivals (not that you’d see those passengers, as they’d all be shuffled off to Immigration and Customs).
 
ITB
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:09 am

blockski wrote:
First, from some MWAA press this week, is a target number for annual passengers at Dulles before seeing any major investment: 30m annual pax:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-456437/

While traffic at Dulles is up, MWAA is not ready to commit to some passenger-sought infrastructure improvements. The airport needs to hit 30 million annual passengers before the operator is willing to look at significant new investments – including a replacement for the "temporary" concourses C and D – says Potter.


Instead of simply waiting for IAD to hit the 30 million passenger mark, Potter and the MWAA should take a more proactive stance in the development of the new C/D concourse. Since it's not a question of if but when a new concourse will be built, it behooves MWAA to move toward planning the new concourse now. While the turning of dirt might be several years down the road, preliminary design work could be initiated this year or next. The goal should be to get the project as near to being shovel ready as possible without actually starting construction, because when the next recession come to be—and some are already whispering 2021—the government, to get the economy moving again, will be doling out very substantial monies for infrastructure projects. MWAA must be prepared for this likelihood. If C/D is ready to go, it's almost a guarantee the federal dollars will flow, millions of them.

To reach the 30 million passenger benchmark, IAD will need to grow from it current 24.1 million. That's a hefty 25 percent increase. It's not going to happen overnight. To put things into perspective, IAD had a passenger count of 23,597,226 in 2010. Obviously, there's been little to no growth since then, due in part to a sky high CPE. However, while the number of domestic passengers fell and stagnated between 2010 and 2017, international numbers increased from roughly 6.4 million to 7.7 million. But a significant change now appears to be underway, as UA seems intent on growing its hub, and several foreign carriers have renewed interest in adding IAD to their route maps. Moreover, population in the Dulles catchment basin continues to steadily increase, particularly in Loudoun County, enhancing an already strong O/D market. By 2030, the catchment basin for IAD may add another 500,000 or more to its already burgeoning population.

MWAA should plan to have the new C concourse up and running by 2030 at the latest, followed by a new D in 2035. If international growth at Dulles continues its steady trend of recent years, and UA remains committed, IAD passenger numbers should near 30 million by 2030, if not a little earlier.

At this time, MWAA needs to continue its focus on lowing IAD's CPE. The magic number is 15 or lower. They're close now, at around $17. Plans are for the proceeds from the recent western lands sale ($236.5 million) to be applied to lowering CPE, so the 15 mark is very much doable in the near future. If United adds an additional bank or two, and we could see an announcement this year, the additional flights and increased passenger numbers should drive CPE even lower.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:21 pm

ITB wrote:
Instead of simply waiting for IAD to hit the 30 million passenger mark, Potter and the MWAA should take a more proactive stance in the development of the new C/D concourse.

I've lived in the DC area on and off for most of my life; "MWAA" and "proactive" typically don't exist in the same sentence. I don't think 30 million pax is some magic number they've had written on a whiteboard all of these years, I think that's the number they pulled out of a hat to entice UA to add an additional two or three banks. If UA increases its operations to that extent, they'll pretty much have to invest in a new concourse to make their investment sustainable...at least that's what the MWAA is probably hoping.

ITB wrote:
At this time, MWAA needs to continue its focus on lowing IAD's CPE. The magic number is 15 or lower. They're close now, at around $17. Plans are for the proceeds from the recent western lands sale ($236.5 million) to be applied to lowering CPE, so the 15 mark is very much doable in the near future. If United adds an additional bank or two, and we could see an announcement this year, the additional flights and increased passenger numbers should drive CPE even lower.

Lowering the CPE is great, but that's going to be a tall order if they're going to build a C/D replacement, as you've suggested. They pretty much can't do both, because they'll need to service the debt somehow. $236 million would only fund about 10% of the project, if they're lucky. They're already talking about a CONRAC facility, which pretty much pays for itself with rental car fees, but it means that money is probably already spoken for if that's their current priority.

Lowering the CPE in the near term is definitely doable, assuming they aren't taking on any new debt. More passengers will bring the CPE down, but the CPE situation isn't as dire as it was a few years ago. IAD is much more competitive from that standpoint (I believe they were up around $22-23 for a while?), and they're already cheaper than EWR. Being a more efficient hub than UA's other northeast hub is and should be the primary goal. We've already seen a number of regional flights shift from EWR to IAD, and I expect more of that to continue. Not to mention IAD is less delay prone and not subject to nearly constant ATC metering/in-trail restrictions.

However, if/when the new midfield replacement project starts, the CPE will definitely creep back up again. They'll need to try their best to keep it in check so it doesn't explode again, but it's the MWAA, so I wouldn't count on any of that process being done in a competent fashion.
 
LoudounHound
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:44 pm

Actually, I believe a lot of the preliminary engineering for the C/D replacement was done years ago. I know I saw renderings of the new facility. No doubt whatever was previously designed will have to be tweaked to fit UA's current needs. The big expense will be if they decide to extend the underground train from the existing B Concourse to the new D Concourse. The A to C connection already exists.

Yes, the CPE will have to be kept in check to make it work, but an additional 6,000,000 pax would bring in $100,000,000 in revenue annually at $17 CPE. That's not chump change. The MWAA certainly deserves criticism for previous decisions and profligate ways, but it was also the victim of some rotten timing with the Indy Air boom/bust, the great recession, Congressional meddling, and the AA/US and UA/CO mergers.
 
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Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:58 pm

LoudounHound wrote:
Actually, I believe a lot of the preliminary engineering for the C/D replacement was done years ago. I know I saw renderings of the new facility. No doubt whatever was previously designed will have to be tweaked to fit UA's current needs. The big expense will be if they decide to extend the underground train from the existing B Concourse to the new D Concourse. The A to C connection already exists.

It's still roughly a $2 billion project to replace a concourse as large as C/D. The longer they wait, the more expensive it will be, so if they wait another 5-10 years, that figure will increase at least 10-20% simply for the cost of materials.

They probably have only done some of the site prep and some architectural renderings, but renderings are useless when it comes to the build process. Renderings essentially only exist for PR to sell the idea, and very often the final design has very little resemblance to the renderings. In many cases, an architectural firm creates the rendering, but a completely different firm(s) is chosen in the RFP to actually design the building. I highly doubt they've even started the design process because it would require an RFP. There's no way they would have put out an RFP without the funding to actually build, because it would be a waste of money. Typically an RFP goes out for the architectural firm, and then sometime thereafter, a second RFP goes out for the contractor. Before either of those things happens, they need to have a way to fund the project.

Site prep expedites the project, but it doesn't account for any meaningful expense in a project of this size. It's nice to get things like soil and environmental testing done, relocating utilities, etc., but depending on how long it's been, some of those prep tasks may need to be repeated anyway. They may have saved themselves a couple of months worth of work, but that's it. Renderings are immaterial to the design/build process, and without a design, there's no engineering prep work that can be done. So, regardless of what's been done, it won't save them very much time or money when it comes time to build.
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