Airliners.net

Interesting. Until now, I was rooting for Spirit (NK) to consider inaugurating service to DAY. Now, I'm not so sure. If the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area continues to grow, NK may eventually take a look at CVG if it suits their aims. That may happen someday, but I don't think that it will happen anytime soon. That's a shame, because even though DAY is located 100 miles north of where I live--and, to get there, I have to drive north on I-75 right past CVG--the James M. Cox Dayton International Airport is a nice, easy-to-get-to, user-friendly airport. Hang in there, DAY!

Yossarian22 wrote:

ILNFlyer wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Sorry, might have made sense for you, but for the large population centers CMH, CLE and CVG actually serve it really wasn't a great experience having to haul yourself an hour's drive plus away to catch a flight at a decent fare from DAY/CAK/IND/SDF. Actually having competitive low fares at CVG, CMH and CLE HAS been brought about by the consumer choice and competition you're talking about thankfully. Now all of this doesn't mean DAY and CAK are irrelevant...they do have their own local markets to serve that will always warrant some level of service, but they can no longer depend on the drive traffic from the larger cities who were fleeing previously high fares.

The only way DAY is going to get competitive again with CVG is to have lower fares, as it's previous history proves. The only way that's going to happen is with a ULCC presence, and most of that has appeared at CVG and CMH instead.I fear DAY may turn into CRJ land. I'm in the process of booking a flight somewhere and the fares out of CVG are $100 lower round trip on a major carrier.

In many ways, that is simply the market becoming rational.

10 years ago, when CVG was dominated by Delta (even though by 2009 Delta had already largely drawn the the hub), CVG was basically just a spoke for UA, AA, CO, and US to operate flights to their regional hubs. Nobody wanted to compete with Delta. Airlines that wanted a piece of the Cincinnati market, such as Frontier and AirTran operated out of DAY, where they wouldn’t be run out of the market.

A good example of that is 20 years ago, Vanguard tried operating cheap flights from CVG to MDW, and Delta offered lose leading fares with extra SkyMiles incentives until Vanguard was run out of the market.

Dayton is a small market, it is a small city with a weak economy, that shares much of its catchment area with CMH and CVG. I live overseas, and my first year, when I flew to see my family in Cincinnati, I flew to DAY. It was cheaper on UA. Those days are basically over now, it is almost always cheaper to fly to CVG, or the cost is the same, so why fly to an airport that is an extra 20/30 minute drive from my parents home?

Dayton really isn’t that small and isn’t a weak economy. Wright Patterson AFB is one of the largest bases in the country. There is a large healthcare community and cost of living is affordable. The economy has transitioned from manufacturing with the loss of GM, Delphi, NCR, and Mead paper but has done well with companies like Lexis Nexus, Reynolds and Reynolds and the healthcare and military presence.

Service at the Dayton airport will be maintained and slowly increase. I don’t expect any major additions, but eventually upgrades of current service will be likely. There is money to made there, just not as much when people were driving from Cincinnati for lower fares.

SkyVoice wrote:

Interesting. Until now, I was rooting for Spirit (NK) to consider inaugurating service to DAY. Now, I'm not so sure. If the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area continues to grow, NK may eventually take a look at CVG if it suits their aims. That may happen someday, but I don't think that it will happen anytime soon. That's a shame, because even though DAY is located 100 miles north of where I live--and, to get there, I have to drive north on I-75 right past CVG--the James M. Cox Dayton International Airport is a nice, easy-to-get-to, user-friendly airport. Hang in there, DAY!

100% correct, and to use it I drive by CMH to get there.

StuckinCMHland wrote:

SkyVoice wrote:

Interesting. Until now, I was rooting for Spirit (NK) to consider inaugurating service to DAY. Now, I'm not so sure. If the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area continues to grow, NK may eventually take a look at CVG if it suits their aims. That may happen someday, but I don't think that it will happen anytime soon. That's a shame, because even though DAY is located 100 miles north of where I live--and, to get there, I have to drive north on I-75 right past CVG--the James M. Cox Dayton International Airport is a nice, easy-to-get-to, user-friendly airport. Hang in there, DAY!

100% correct, and to use it I drive by CMH to get there.

I still think NK could take a shot at DAY. They'd have no F9 and a lesser G4 presence to deal with at DAY as opposed to getting into the ULCC hornet's nest at CVG.

Start with less-than-daily MCO, RSW, and LAS and see how it goes, maybe setting the service dates up in part to try and draw people wanting long weekends?

edit- Looks like G4 may have dropped PGD and MYR, which could be others NK might be able to make work (with RSW swapped for PGD).

DeltaRules wrote:

StuckinCMHland wrote:

SkyVoice wrote:

Interesting. Until now, I was rooting for Spirit (NK) to consider inaugurating service to DAY. Now, I'm not so sure. If the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area continues to grow, NK may eventually take a look at CVG if it suits their aims. That may happen someday, but I don't think that it will happen anytime soon. That's a shame, because even though DAY is located 100 miles north of where I live--and, to get there, I have to drive north on I-75 right past CVG--the James M. Cox Dayton International Airport is a nice, easy-to-get-to, user-friendly airport. Hang in there, DAY!

100% correct, and to use it I drive by CMH to get there.

I still think NK could take a shot at DAY. They'd have no F9 and a lesser G4 presence to deal with at DAY as opposed to getting into the ULCC hornet's nest at CVG.

Start with less-than-daily MCO, RSW, and LAS and see how it goes, maybe setting the service dates up in part to try and draw people wanting long weekends?

edit- Looks like G4 may have dropped PGD and MYR, which could be others NK might be able to make work (with RSW swapped for PGD).

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

flyguy89 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

StuckinCMHland wrote:

100% correct, and to use it I drive by CMH to get there.

I still think NK could take a shot at DAY. They'd have no F9 and a lesser G4 presence to deal with at DAY as opposed to getting into the ULCC hornet's nest at CVG.

Start with less-than-daily MCO, RSW, and LAS and see how it goes, maybe setting the service dates up in part to try and draw people wanting long weekends?

edit- Looks like G4 may have dropped PGD and MYR, which could be others NK might be able to make work (with RSW swapped for PGD).

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

Why do you say it hasn’t worked for them in CAK?

flyguy89 wrote:

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

One big difference between DAY and CAK is that DAY is further from CVG, CMH, and LCK than CAK is to CLE. Another big difference is that NK already serves both CAK and CLE in Northeast Ohio whereas DAY and CVG aren't currently served by NK.

Passing through CVG today as one of those mythical Delta connecting passengers. The flight to Denver today is basically empty. Upgrade cleared a week ago.

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

I still think NK could take a shot at DAY. They'd have no F9 and a lesser G4 presence to deal with at DAY as opposed to getting into the ULCC hornet's nest at CVG.

Start with less-than-daily MCO, RSW, and LAS and see how it goes, maybe setting the service dates up in part to try and draw people wanting long weekends?

edit- Looks like G4 may have dropped PGD and MYR, which could be others NK might be able to make work (with RSW swapped for PGD).

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

Why do you say it hasn’t worked for them in CAK?

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

I still think NK could take a shot at DAY. They'd have no F9 and a lesser G4 presence to deal with at DAY as opposed to getting into the ULCC hornet's nest at CVG.

Start with less-than-daily MCO, RSW, and LAS and see how it goes, maybe setting the service dates up in part to try and draw people wanting long weekends?

edit- Looks like G4 may have dropped PGD and MYR, which could be others NK might be able to make work (with RSW swapped for PGD).

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

Why do you say it hasn’t worked for them in CAK?

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

The CRAA monthly board meeting agenda is out for April. CMH highlights include continued growth for everyone (5.9% YOY overall), except F9 (down dramatically), AC (down slightly), and WN (down slightly, presumably related to the MAX groundings - I personally experienced two flight cancellations last month). The biggest passenger gains posted were UA and NK.

Also, we have the first numbers from AS: an estimated 84% load factor in March. Not too shabby at all!

https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... 042319.pdf

CMHtraveler wrote:

The CRAA monthly board meeting agenda is out for April. CMH highlights include continued growth for everyone (5.9% YOY overall), except F9 (down dramatically), AC (down slightly), and WN (down slightly, presumably related to the MAX groundings - I personally experienced two flight cancellations last month). The biggest passenger gains posted were UA and NK.

Also, we have the first numbers from AS: an estimated 84% load factor in March. Not too shabby at all!

https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... 042319.pdf

CRAA to support two amendments in state operating budget
CRAA will be actively supporting at least two amendments in this upcoming legislation, which the legislature needs to pass by June 30:
•Creation of a $15M air service development fund. Senator Kunze is assisting in the drafting of this amendment.

Oh boy.

flyguy89 wrote:

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Hasn't really worked out for them in CAK. Not sure why DAY would be different.

Why do you say it hasn’t worked for them in CAK?

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

They have reduced there destinations from 6 to 3. It is interesting that they are able to maintain both MCO and TPA out of CLE and CAK.
Does anyone have any ideas to turn CAK around?
JetBlue would have been a good fit but they entered CLE right before Southwest pulled out of CAK.
Does anyone know if any airlines get subsidities to fly into CAK?
I think the only thing keeping flights at CAK is that DGS services below wing for DElta,United and Spirit
And pays $9.00 an hour.

DeltaRules wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

The CRAA monthly board meeting agenda is out for April. CMH highlights include continued growth for everyone (5.9% YOY overall), except F9 (down dramatically), AC (down slightly), and WN (down slightly, presumably related to the MAX groundings - I personally experienced two flight cancellations last month). The biggest passenger gains posted were UA and NK.

Also, we have the first numbers from AS: an estimated 84% load factor in March. Not too shabby at all!

https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... 042319.pdf

CRAA to support two amendments in state operating budget
CRAA will be actively supporting at least two amendments in this upcoming legislation, which the legislature needs to pass by June 30:
•Creation of a $15M air service development fund. Senator Kunze is assisting in the drafting of this amendment.

Oh boy.

Is $15 million a lot for new service?

Cbusflyer wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

The CRAA monthly board meeting agenda is out for April. CMH highlights include continued growth for everyone (5.9% YOY overall), except F9 (down dramatically), AC (down slightly), and WN (down slightly, presumably related to the MAX groundings - I personally experienced two flight cancellations last month). The biggest passenger gains posted were UA and NK.

Also, we have the first numbers from AS: an estimated 84% load factor in March. Not too shabby at all!

https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... 042319.pdf

CRAA to support two amendments in state operating budget
CRAA will be actively supporting at least two amendments in this upcoming legislation, which the legislature needs to pass by June 30:
•Creation of a $15M air service development fund. Senator Kunze is assisting in the drafting of this amendment.

Oh boy.

Is $15 million a lot for new service?

The $15M is a fund which could be drawn from to incentivize new service at Ohio's airports, with the notable exception of CVG as it belongs to Kentucky. It could be used for both things like CLE/CMH TATL and (random example) something like DAY-BOS alike. The fact it's in play is intriguing because I figured it'd be something that didn't actually happen.

$15M would be massive for one new service (by comparison, DL got $5M for IND-CDG (which a friend of mine is on tonight and said is empty). CMH-SEA, for example, got AS $450k in incentives.

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Link4444 wrote:

Why do you say it hasn’t worked for them in CAK?

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

They have reduced there destinations from 6 to 3. It is interesting that they are able to maintain both MCO and TPA out of CLE and CAK.
Does anyone have any ideas to turn CAK around?
JetBlue would have been a good fit but they entered CLE right before Southwest pulled out of CAK.
Does anyone know if any airlines get subsidities to fly into CAK?
I think the only thing keeping flights at CAK is that DGS services below wing for DElta,United and Spirit
And pays $9.00 an hour.

It's tough because, again like DAY, so much of CAK's past success was in drawing low fare pax from the then-high-fare-CLE. Unless that dynamic returns, I don't see a scenario where CAK returns to that level of service.

Is $15 million a lot for new service?[/quote]

I assume it applies for all airports in Ohio

flyguy89 wrote:

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

They have reduced there destinations from 6 to 3. It is interesting that they are able to maintain both MCO and TPA out of CLE and CAK.
Does anyone have any ideas to turn CAK around?
JetBlue would have been a good fit but they entered CLE right before Southwest pulled out of CAK.
Does anyone know if any airlines get subsidities to fly into CAK?
I think the only thing keeping flights at CAK is that DGS services below wing for DElta,United and Spirit
And pays $9.00 an hour.

It's tough because, again like DAY, so much of CAK's past success was in drawing low fare pax from the then-high-fare-CLE. Unless that dynamic returns, I don't see a scenario where CAK returns to that level of service.

I think AA will maintain reasonable levels of service at CAK as long as PSA has a maintenance base there, so they have that going for them.

Also worth noting at this point that CAK gained IAH less than a year ago via UA.

DeltaRules wrote:

I think AA will maintain reasonable levels of service at CAK as long as PSA has a maintenance base there, so they have that going for them.

Agreed.

DeltaRules wrote:

Also worth noting at this point that CAK gained IAH less than a year ago via UA.

Speaking of IAH on UA, will CMH ever see mainline on this route? Recently booked a trip for a family event in Mexico (SLP) which requires a connection in either IAH via UA or DFW via AA. The price difference on the two carriers was negligible so it came down to the first leg; 2.5 hours each way on AA’s 738/MD-80 vs. 2.5 hours each way on an RJ. Guess which one I picked? It’s worth noting WN seems to have no issue filling up a daily 738 to HOU. C’mon UA!

CMHtraveler wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Speaking of IAH on UA, will CMH ever see mainline on this route? Recently booked a trip for a family event in Mexico (SLP) which requires a connection in either IAH via UA or DFW via AA. The price difference on the two carriers was negligible so it came down to the first leg; 2.5 hours each way on AA’s 738/MD-80 vs. 2.5 hours each way on an RJ. Guess which one I picked? It’s worth noting WN seems to have no issue filling up a daily 738 to HOU. C’mon UA!

Personally, I'd fly on a ERJ 170/175 all day long compared to a 737. 2x2 is way more comfortable than 3x3.

atbPy wrote:

Personally, I'd fly on a ERJ 170/175 all day long compared to a 737. 2x2 is way more comfortable than 3x3.

Personal preference (and height?) I suppose. It’s just strange to have other airlines flying mainline aircraft on a route to your hub city while you continue to turn pax connecting worldwide over to a mishmash of subcontractors. Besides, how could I miss maybe my last mad dog flight ever?

flyguy89 wrote:

Link4444 wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

The fact that they continue to cut routes and capacity since they debuted in the market.

They have reduced there destinations from 6 to 3. It is interesting that they are able to maintain both MCO and TPA out of CLE and CAK.
Does anyone have any ideas to turn CAK around?
JetBlue would have been a good fit but they entered CLE right before Southwest pulled out of CAK.
Does anyone know if any airlines get subsidities to fly into CAK?
I think the only thing keeping flights at CAK is that DGS services below wing for DElta,United and Spirit
And pays $9.00 an hour.

It's tough because, again like DAY, so much of CAK's past success was in drawing low fare pax from the then-high-fare-CLE. Unless that dynamic returns, I don't see a scenario where CAK returns to that level of service.

I get that DAY and CAK seem to be in similar situations, but they are not that comparable when it comes to level of service. Here are the flights from the US3 for a random Thursday in May (Destination- CAK frequency-DAY frequency):
EWR -2-1
LGA-1-3
DCA-1-3
CLT-5-6
ATL-3 (1 mainline)-4 (all mainline)
IAH-1-1
IAD-0-2
DFW-0-4
MSP-0-3
DEN-0-2
PHL-2-4
DTW-0-4
As can be seen, DAY has a lot more destinations and frequency on the legacy carriers than CAK. I left out NK and G4.

cledaybuck wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Link4444 wrote:

They have reduced there destinations from 6 to 3. It is interesting that they are able to maintain both MCO and TPA out of CLE and CAK.
Does anyone have any ideas to turn CAK around?
JetBlue would have been a good fit but they entered CLE right before Southwest pulled out of CAK.
Does anyone know if any airlines get subsidities to fly into CAK?
I think the only thing keeping flights at CAK is that DGS services below wing for DElta,United and Spirit
And pays $9.00 an hour.

It's tough because, again like DAY, so much of CAK's past success was in drawing low fare pax from the then-high-fare-CLE. Unless that dynamic returns, I don't see a scenario where CAK returns to that level of service.

I get that DAY and CAK seem to be in similar situations, but they are not that comparable when it comes to level of service. Here are the flights from the US3 for a random Thursday in May (Destination- CAK frequency-DAY frequency):
EWR -2-1
LGA-1-3
DCA-1-3
CLT-5-6
ATL-3 (1 mainline)-4 (all mainline)
IAH-1-1
IAD-0-2
DFW-0-4
MSP-0-3
DEN-0-2
PHL-2-4
DTW-0-4
As can be seen, DAY has a lot more destinations and frequency on the legacy carriers than CAK. I left out NK and G4.

But they are completely comparable when it comes to loss of bleed traffic from the major metros they’re adjacent to, which was the point. DAY has a larger local market than CAK, but the two are grappling with an irreversible loss of significant bleed traffic.

flyguy89 wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

It's tough because, again like DAY, so much of CAK's past success was in drawing low fare pax from the then-high-fare-CLE. Unless that dynamic returns, I don't see a scenario where CAK returns to that level of service.

I get that DAY and CAK seem to be in similar situations, but they are not that comparable when it comes to level of service. Here are the flights from the US3 for a random Thursday in May (Destination- CAK frequency-DAY frequency):
EWR -2-1
LGA-1-3
DCA-1-3
CLT-5-6
ATL-3 (1 mainline)-4 (all mainline)
IAH-1-1
IAD-0-2
DFW-0-4
MSP-0-3
DEN-0-2
PHL-2-4
DTW-0-4
As can be seen, DAY has a lot more destinations and frequency on the legacy carriers than CAK. I left out NK and G4.

But they are completely comparable when it comes to loss of bleed traffic from the major metros they’re adjacent to, which was the point. DAY has a larger local market than CAK, but the two are grappling with an irreversible loss of significant bleed traffic.

I suspect the reverse is happening now, CAK and DAY are bleeding to CLE and CVG (and to a lesser extent CMH). I think the best that can realistically be hoped for is to stop that bleeding. You are correct that it is not going to reverse itself because no one is going to come into CLE or CVG again and set up a hub and try and gouge the local passenger.

CMHtraveler wrote:

Also, we have the first numbers from AS: an estimated 84% load factor in March. Not too shabby at all!
https://columbusairports.com/storage/pr ... 042319.pdf

Really pleased with Alaska's March load factor. That should only continue to improve as the summer travel season approaches. Hopefully they are selling those seats at a price where the route can be profitable.

CMHtraveler wrote:

Speaking of IAH on UA, will CMH ever see mainline on this route?

Not sure. CO used to fly IAH 5x daily with 2 738s and 3 ER4s at one point. I don't think the route has seen mainline since well before the merger. That being said, a mainline frequency or 2 shouldn't be out of the question, especially with WN and AA sending all-mainline metal to TX (I know, all WN has is mainline).

DeltaRules wrote:

The $15M is a fund which could be drawn from to incentivize new service at Ohio's airports, with the notable exception of CVG as it belongs to Kentucky. It could be used for both things like CLE/CMH TATL and (random example) something like DAY-BOS alike. The fact it's in play is intriguing because I figured it'd be something that didn't actually happen.

$15M would be massive for one new service (by comparison, DL got $5M for IND-CDG (which a friend of mine is on tonight and said is empty). CMH-SEA, for example, got AS $450k in incentives.

Definitely lots of questions on how a $15 mil pot could be split among Ohio commercial service airports. Maybe $5 mil to CMH and CLE, $1 mil to CAK, DAY, TOL, and YNG, and $1 mil discretionary? If only it could be that simple, lol.

In other CMH news, F9 began 3x weekly CMH-RDU today:

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190430/ ... igh-durham

Let's see how long it lasts; SAT and AUS unfortunately were quick adds and drops and the jury is still out on PBI.

flyCMH wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

The $15M is a fund which could be drawn from to incentivize new service at Ohio's airports, with the notable exception of CVG as it belongs to Kentucky. It could be used for both things like CLE/CMH TATL and (random example) something like DAY-BOS alike. The fact it's in play is intriguing because I figured it'd be something that didn't actually happen.

$15M would be massive for one new service (by comparison, DL got $5M for IND-CDG (which a friend of mine is on tonight and said is empty). CMH-SEA, for example, got AS $450k in incentives.

Definitely lots of questions on how a $15 mil pot could be split among Ohio commercial service airports. Maybe $5 mil to CMH and CLE, $1 mil to CAK, DAY, TOL, and YNG, and $1 mil discretionary? If only it could be that simple, lol.

I think your idea is a reasonable one, as it could get CMH and CLE TATL (or a pile of other flights either airport could use) and could expand the map at the smaller ones. I can't remember what was in the article about DAY not too long ago, but I seem to remember BOS (assuming DL), MIA (AA), and either PHX/IWA or LAS (G4) being on their short list. They talked when I visited a couple years ago about having the numbers for an LAX nonstop, which would have A220 written all over it.

One thing which could work to the benefit of the fund is that there's a Republican Senator championing it.

F9 has been a hands-down failure in CMH. They have zero customer service, their product sucks, and they barely get service to a destination going before they pull the plug. They should either commit or get off the pot.

NK, on the other hand, has been overall pretty good...and I always see large crowds at their gates. I would love for them to continue growing here because they've been a good addition to the CMH area.

Wonder why F9 is working in CLE but not CMH. Maybe because WN has better service at CMH.

Back to incentives. If Ohio spends money luring service to CAK that CLE already has, what a colossal waste, it’ll only cannibalize, not grow. I can’t speak to the DAY/CVG dynamics but at least DAY isn’t competing with an Ohio airport.

ncflyer wrote:

Wonder why F9 is working in CLE but not CMH.

It‘s the route planning (or lack thereof). For all practical purposes they are down to two routes; MCO and DEN. They fly MCO just twice weekly, competing against NK and WN at 1x daily and 2-5x daily respectively year round, as well as DL seasonally and G4 over at LCK. They fly DEN twice weekly competing against WN and UA at 1-2x daily and 2x daily respectively year round. Travelers, both business and leisure, have the option of picking dates on these routes which already have price competition from at least two airlines. I don’t think F9 can price cheaply enough to make up for terrible service and date constraints on well-established existing routes.

As far as their other pop-up routes, not even the crowd-sourced Wikipedia can keep up; the CMH page still lists AUS and SAT as destinations. RDU seems like it will meet the same fate competing less than daily with an at-least-1x daily DL route. My prediction is that it will temporarily bring fares down until DL runs them off the route for good. Who wants to buy a ticket for a flight that might not exist by the time your trip rolls around?

Since F9 seems to have no issue trying routes out and cutting them if they don’t perform, I have no idea why they don’t try daily service on some unserved or underserved routes from CMH, such as SAN (which they serve from CLE), or MSY.

CMHMarc787 wrote:

NK, on the other hand, has been overall pretty good.

Duplicate post, sorry.

CMHMarc787 wrote:

F9 has been a hands-down failure in CMH. They have zero customer service, their product sucks, and they barely get service to a destination going before they pull the plug. They should either commit or get off the pot.

NK, on the other hand, has been overall pretty good...and I always see large crowds at their gates. I would love for them to continue growing here because they've been a good addition to the CMH area.

There are still a few more nonstop routes that could be added by NK out of CMH such as CMH-ATL, CMH-BWI, CMH-BOS, CMH-DFW, and CMH-LAX.

ncflyer wrote:

Wonder why F9 is working in CLE but not CMH. Maybe because WN has better service at CMH.

Back to incentives. If Ohio spends money luring service to CAK that CLE already has, what a colossal waste, it’ll only cannibalize, not grow. I can’t speak to the DAY/CVG dynamics but at least DAY isn’t competing with an Ohio airport.

Concerning incentives I totally disagree, CAK and DAY are not obligated to be concerned about what is best for other airports,but what is best for their own regions.Their counties pay taxes too, CAK have targeted DFW, BOS, AND MSP specifically, and the fact that CLE or CMH have that service is immaterial, if those airports are so robust they should be able to stand on their own.

CMHtraveler your arguments make sense except for the fact that F9 has 9-10 flights per day in the summer in CLE and CVG, many of which are less than daily, or compete directly agains the big boys. (CLE-SFO and MSP, CVG-and just about all their routes compete with dailies on DL). CLE-RDU has been around now for many years, less than daily, even though DL serves the route daily-- don't see why it won't work in CMH.

So-- F9 must experience something different about CMH (and for that matter PIT, but this is an OH forum). The only thing I can think of is that CMH (and PIT) have had better service on WN through the years, especially to Florida, than CLE and CVG, so maybe that keeps F9 away-- without that low hanging fruit low cost leisure market as available.

Keep in mind F9 bailed on CMH for CLE and CVG simultaneously, then came back 3-4 years later under a new(er) business model.

More on the potential incentives: https://www.cleveland.com/business/2019 ... ights.html

CMHtraveler wrote:

ncflyer wrote:

Wonder why F9 is working in CLE but not CMH.

As far as their other pop-up routes, not even the crowd-sourced Wikipedia can keep up; the CMH page still lists AUS and SAT as destinations. RDU seems like it will meet the same fate competing less than daily with an at-least-1x daily DL route. My prediction is that it will temporarily bring fares down until DL runs them off the route for good. Who wants to buy a ticket for a flight that might not exist by the time your trip rolls around?

Since F9 seems to have no issue trying routes out and cutting them if they don’t perform, I have no idea why they don’t try daily service on some unserved or underserved routes from CMH, such as SAN (which they serve from CLE), or MSY.

CMH-AUS and CMH-SAN nonstop service could be added by WN with AUS and SAN being two of the top destinations that aren't currently served nonstop from CMH. WN also doesn't usually drop any successful nonstop routes, and WN also doesn't usually discontinue any nonstop routes outside of normal schedule extensions.

ncflyer wrote:

CMHtraveler your arguments make sense except for the fact that F9 has 9-10 flights per day in the summer in CLE and CVG...

CMH is lucky to see 9-10 F9 flights weekly! I have no data to back this up, but I think it’s a reasonable hypothesis to assume that a healthier route map leads to more first time customers, which in turn leads to a larger repeat customer base, and a larger pool of people to lure from the more established carriers. In other words, people who have already experienced F9 once or twice are much more likely to “risk” a switch from the big 4 and move a date to save a buck with F9, especially as they join loyalty programs. Check out the list of destinations for F9 at CLE and CVG compared to CMH. What kind of customer base are you going to build with two year-round flights (which are less than daily)?

CMHtraveler wrote:

ncflyer wrote:

CMHtraveler your arguments make sense except for the fact that F9 has 9-10 flights per day in the summer in CLE and CVG...

CMH is lucky to see 9-10 F9 flights weekly! I have no data to back this up, but I think it’s a reasonable hypothesis to assume that a healthier route map leads to more first time customers, which in turn leads to a larger repeat customer base, and a larger pool of people to lure from the more established carriers. In other words, people who have already experienced F9 once or twice are much more likely to “risk” a switch from the big 4 and move a date to save a buck with F9, especially as they join loyalty programs. Check out the list of destinations for F9 at CLE and CVG compared to CMH. What kind of customer base are you going to build with two year-round flights (which are less than daily)?

I too find the disparity in F9 service between CMH and CLE/CVG interesting. Comparing the schedules between the three airports this summer:

CMH
-DEN: 4x weekly, A320
-RDU: 3x weekly, A320
-MCO: 2x weekly, A321
TOTAL: 9x weekly flights (avg. 1.3 flights/day)

CLE:
-CUN: 3x weekly, A321
-CHS: 2x weekly, A321
-DEN: 1x daily A321 + 3x weekly A320 (10x weekly flights)
-RSW: 1x daily, A321
-LAS: 1x daily, A321
-MCO: 1x daily A321 + 2x weekly A320 (9x weekly flights)
-PHX: 4x weekly, A321
-PUJ: 3x weekly, A320
-SAN: 2x weekly, A320
-SRQ: 2x weekly, A321
-TPA: 1x daily A320 + 3x weekly A321 (10x weekly flights)
-AUS: 3x weekly, A321
-MSP: 4x weekly, A320
-RDU: 4x weekly, A320
-SFO: 3x weekly, A321
-SEA: 4x weekly, A321
TOTAL: 77 weekly flights (avg. 11 flights/day)

CVG:
-DEN: 8x weekly (2x on Fri), A320
-RSW: 4x weekly, A321
-LAS: 1x daily, A320
-MCO: 1x daily, A320
-PHX: 3x weekly, A320
-TPA: 4x weekly, A320
-ATL: 3x weekly, A320
-AUS: 3x weekly, A320
-CUN: 1x weekly, A320
-DFW: 3x weekly, A320
-JAX: 2x weekly, A320
-LAX: 4x weekly, A320
-MSP: 3x weekly, A320
-LGA: 1x daily, A320
-PHL: 3x weekly, A320
-PUJ: 1x weekly, A320
-RDU: 3x weekly, A320
-SAN: 2x weekly, A320
-SFO: 3x weekly, A320
TOTAL: 71 weekly flights (avg. 10.1 flights/day)

I’m interested as to what about CMH has made it so difficult for F9 to get anything going as compared to CLE and CVG

Another thing to keep in mind.

WN flights per day (I didn't count this is just the max per day listed on WNs site)

CMH-46
CLE-24
CVG-10

CVG has a lot of DL also. Have to factor in everything and not just F9. Some bigger WN cities lack much F9 service (besides MCO/DEN/LAS obviously).

Also how does NK and G4 look in those cities?

ncflyer wrote:

Wonder why F9 is working in CLE but not CMH.

My take on it is a combination of many of the factors already mentioned in previous posts, the biggest of which would be timing of entrance into specific markets and established competition.

Frontier entered CLE and CVG at pivotal points in their hub status. They were somewhat of a low fare savior for a market strangled by hub fare pricing (G4 arguably even more so in CVG). They established a solid footholds in both markets and have been able to tinker with schedules and routes largely successfully. Meanwhile, CMH had an established low fare presence from Southwest and, to a lesser extent, G4 at LCK. They have stumbled 3x times to get their service off the ground (via the YX merger, short-lived TTN service, and now dartboard service). I am hopeful that their core routes are sustainable (DEN and MCO) and that they can find successful routes to build on from there (PBI, RDU, etc). I think expecting F9 to have a similar route network from CMH as CLE and CVG is unrealistic given the market forces that are and have been at play.

F9LASDEN wrote:

Comparing the schedules between the three airports this summer:

Thank you very much for this comprehensive summary of service. I found it very useful.

marvinanderson1 wrote:

Concerning incentives I totally disagree, CAK and DAY are not obligated to be concerned about what is best for other airports,but what is best for their own regions.Their counties pay taxes too, CAK have targeted DFW, BOS, AND MSP specifically, and the fact that CLE or CMH have that service is immaterial, if those airports are so robust they should be able to stand on their own.

I agree with that assessment. In my opinion, there is nothing wrong with DAY seeking BOS service or CAK looking to add MSP, even if those routes exist from nearby airports. Both airports are the primary choice for hundreds of thousands of residents and it is well within their scope to pursue routes deemed needed to better serve their community. If anything, I think the secondary airports strengthen the region as a whole when it comes to air service coverage. I do agree that primary airports should be where service to unique destinations is developed, such as West Coast, International, and niche markets.

Also, another note for CMH service: Delta has a one-off CMH-MSN-CMH round-trip scheduled for 25/29AUG. Not sure what it's for, but it must be collegiate in nature. Though Wisconsin doesn't play Ohio State until October 26. Also, starting in August, the first RON departure to ATL is scheduled as an A321.

It's always a good guess that one off service to MSN has something to do with a conference at Epic, the medical software company HQ'd in Madison. I read (a while ago) that Epic has the second largest auditorium in all of WI on their campus, which is an architectural wonder. They host humongous conferences for training of medical professionals of all types, doctors, nurses, finance people, IT people, you name it.

Jshank83 wrote:

Another thing to keep in mind.

WN flights per day (I didn't count this is just the max per day listed on WNs site)

CMH-46
CLE-24
CVG-10

CVG has a lot of DL also. Have to factor in everything and not just F9. Some bigger WN cities lack much F9 service (besides MCO/DEN/LAS obviously).

Also how does NK and G4 look in those cities?

CMH/LCK, Week of July 15th.

NK-
FLL- Daily A319
MCO- Daily A320
LAS- Daily A320
MSY- 3x weekly A320
MYR- 4x weekly A320
Peak 4-5 flights daily. NK has upgauged most everything; they started with all-319s. RSW and TPA are Winter seasonal.

G4-
CHS- 2x weekly
SFB- 5x weekly
VPS- 2x weekly
FLL- 2x weekly
JAX- 2x weekly
MYR- Daily(?!?)
PGD- 5x weekly
SRQ- 2x weekly
SAV- 5x weekly
PIE- 5x weekly

AUS and MSY were said to be resuming after a temporary suspension, but aren't showing on LCK's site (they did the last time I looked at G4's map). I know MSY was a Mardi Gras/Spring Break season flight, so maybe it'll be back.

flyCMH wrote:

Also, starting in August, the first RON departure to ATL is scheduled as an A321.

Nice! I know we’ve seen the odd one-off A321 from other carriers (even AS for one random day), but will this be the first regularly scheduled A321 service in recent memory at CMH?

ncflyer wrote:

It's always a good guess that one off service to MSN has something to do with a conference at Epic, the medical software company HQ'd in Madison.

This makes a lot of sense. I know someone who works for Epic in Columbus and their software is used by all the major local hospital chains (OhioHealth, Nationwide, Mt. Carmel, OSU).

CMHtraveler wrote:

flyCMH wrote:

Also, starting in August, the first RON departure to ATL is scheduled as an A321.

Nice! I know we’ve seen the odd one-off A321 from other carriers (even AS for one random day), but will this be the first regularly scheduled A321 service in recent memory at CMH?

I wondered what would happen once the MD-88s started the final dropoff and if the replacement would be more 737s or the 321. Maybe this is an indication. I saw a random 321 parked at C50 at CMH one night just after they started taking deliveries.

I've done quite a bit of DL 738/739 flying over the years but have only been on one 321 to this point.

DeltaRules wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Another thing to keep in mind.

WN flights per day (I didn't count this is just the max per day listed on WNs site)

CMH-46
CLE-24
CVG-10

CVG has a lot of DL also. Have to factor in everything and not just F9. Some bigger WN cities lack much F9 service (besides MCO/DEN/LAS obviously).

Also how does NK and G4 look in those cities?

CMH/LCK, Week of July 15th.

NK-
FLL- Daily A319
MCO- Daily A320
LAS- Daily A320
MSY- 3x weekly A320
MYR- 4x weekly A320
Peak 4-5 flights daily. NK has upgauged most everything; they started with all-319s. RSW and TPA are Winter seasonal.

G4-
CHS- 2x weekly
SFB- 5x weekly
VPS- 2x weekly
FLL- 2x weekly
JAX- 2x weekly
MYR- Daily(?!?)
PGD- 5x weekly
SRQ- 2x weekly
SAV- 5x weekly
PIE- 5x weekly

AUS and MSY were said to be resuming after a temporary suspension, but aren't showing on LCK's site (they did the last time I looked at G4's map). I know MSY was a Mardi Gras/Spring Break season flight, so maybe it'll be back.

Adding on to this...

CLE:

NK:
-ATL: 1x daily, A320
-FLL: 1x daily, A320
-LAS: 1x daily, A320
-LAX: 1x daily, A320
-MSY: 3x weekly, A319
-MCO: 11x weekly, all A320
-BOS: 1x daily, A320
-DFW: 1x daily, A320
-MYR: 1x daily, A320
TOTAL: 63 weekly flight (avg. 9 flights/day)

G4:
-PGD: 3x weekly
-SRQ: 2x weekly
-SAV 8x weekly (2x on Sat)
-PIE: 2x weekly
-CHS: 2x weekly
-VPS: 2x weekly
-JAX: 2x weekly
-MYR: 2x weekly
-BNA: 2x weekly
-ORF: 2x weekly
-SFB: 2x weekly
TOTAL: 29 weekly flights (avg. 4.1 flights/day)

CVG:

NK:
-N/A

G4:
-CHS: 2x weekly
-DEN: 3x weekly
-VPS: 11x weekly
-FLL: 8x weekly (2x on Sat)
-JAX: 2x weekly
-LAS: 5x weekly
-LAX: 4x weekly
-EWR: 4x weekly
-MSY: 3x weekly
-SFB: 9x weekly
-IWA: 2x weekly
-PGD: 8x weekly (2x on Sat)
-SRQ: 4x weekly
-SAV: 1x daily
-PIE: 9x weekly
-AUS: 2x weekly
-MYR: 4x weekly
-ORF: 2x weekly
-PVD: 2x weekly
TOTAL: 91 weekly flights (avg. 13 flights/day)


Comparing total capacity (available seats) per week this summer across the three ULCCs in OH:
CMH/LCK:
-G4: 5,810 seats/week
-NK: 4,837 seats/week
-F9: 1,762 seats/week

CLE:
-F9: 16,610 seats/week
-NK: 11,355 seats/week
-G4: 4,814 seats/week

CVG:
-G4: 15,106 seats/week
-F9: 13,382 seats/week
-NK: N/A

F9 at CMH could take a shot at SAN; they could start an untapped route which probably has some incentive dollars up for grabs and pick a route which isn't some combination of an attempt to (presumably) trash yields and/or a route which could theoretically be a shuttle bus for Blue Jackets and Hurricanes fans should both make the Eastern Conference Final.

Don't get me wrong, some of their flights make sense from an operational standpoint (DEN and MCO offer at least some connections) but, otherwise, they're just going head-to-head with UA and WN to DEN, WN/G4/NK/DL to MCO, and DL and their well-timed-to-business-travelers to RDU.

flyCMH wrote:

Also, starting in August, the first RON departure to ATL is scheduled as an A321.

This must be replacing the 757 that DL occasionally send our way?

atbPy wrote:

flyCMH wrote:

Also, starting in August, the first RON departure to ATL is scheduled as an A321.

This must be replacing the 757 that DL occasionally send our way?

I would say it's more a semi-permanent M88 replacement.

DeltaRules wrote:

I would say it's more a semi-permanent M88 replacement.

Seems like the 737-900 would be a closer replacement. From what I see the MD-88 is at 149 seats and the closest is 737-900 and then A321.

Here are the number of domestic passengers per year on LCC's in Ohio and nearby markets in surrounding states in 2018

CLE
WN - 1,635,632
F9 - 905,121
NK - 845,752
B6 - 269,071
G4 - 226,799
--------------------------------------
WN+B6+ULCC's - 3,882,375

CMH/LCK
WN - 2,845,918
NK - 352,257
G4 - 300,856
F9 - 159,535
----------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 3,658,566

CVG
G4 - 1,078,546
F9 - 995,678
WN - 567,915
---------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 2,642,139

CAK
NK - 135,995

TOL
G4 - 104,343

DAY
G4 - 98,965

DTW
NK - 3,193,806
WN - 1,628,423
F9 - 296,096
B6 - 276,140
--------------------------------------
WN+B6+ULCC's - 5,394,465

PIT/LBE
WN - 2,471,455
NK - 540,787 @ PIT, 298,796 @ LBE
B6 - 385,763
G4 - 311,749
F9 - 86,708
-------------------------------------------------------
WN+B6+ULCC's @ PIT - 3,796,462
WN+B6+ULCC's @ PIT/LBE - 4,095,258

IND
WN - 2,914,964
G4 - 530,342
F9 - 263,369
---------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 3,708,675

SDF
WN - 993,688
G4 - 246,240
F9 - 49,537
---------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 1,289,465

LEX
G4 - 246,839

FWA
G4 - 166,384

jplatts wrote:

Here are the number of domestic passengers per year on LCC's in Ohio and nearby markets in surrounding states in 2018

CLE
WN - 1,635,632
F9 - 905,121
NK - 845,752
B6 - 269,071
G4 - 226,799
--------------------------------------
WN+B6+ULCC's - 3,882,375

CMH/LCK
WN - 2,845,918
NK - 352,257
G4 - 300,856
F9 - 159,535
----------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 3,658,566

CVG
G4 - 1,078,546
F9 - 995,678
WN - 567,915
---------------------------------
WN+ULCC's - 2,642,139

Well, there you have it. The lack of F9 service at CMH compared to CVG and CLE is effectively balanced out by the much larger WN presence. Thanks jplatts. It still doesn’t explain the relative success of NK, who entered the market even later and competes with the big 4 on every one of their routes.