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atcsundevil
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The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:35 am

Continue from last year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382511
 
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bdlflyer
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:00 pm

So I will toss my BDL predictions in here for 2019. Here’s what I can see happening:
-AS announcing daily nonstop to SEA
-B6 potentially adds an additional route. MBJ seems to be a strong possibility.
-F9 potentially adds an additional one to two routes. AUS and/or JAX perhaps.
-NK potentially adds an additional one or two routes. This is my wildcard but I would sat DTW.
-UA seasonal service to SFO becomes year round
-Ultimate wildcard would be SY entering BDL with scheduled service, likely to MBJ

There may be a surprise equipment upgrade, frequency increase, or new destination by someone. I’m mainly looking at the legacies here.
Bradley International Airport (BDL) | Gateway to New England | ❤️ Love The Journey | New England's second largest airport
 
CairnterriAIR
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:18 pm

UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.
 
joeblow10
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:31 pm

Maybe not till 2020 since it seems a bit late to announce now but with how well F9 appears to have done with PWM-DEN, I’d be surprised if UA doesn’t jump on it soon, especially the way they’ve been adding routes “copycat” to F9s additions out of DEN
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:20 pm

For PWM, my 2019 predictions would be :

-WN going daily to MDW (seasonally at least)
-F9 adding FLL or MIA, I would say that their expansion will be slower this year, but 2018 was a good year for Frontier in Portland, I think that trend will continue
-AA adding DFW or UA adding IAH (seasonally to start)
-AA making PWM-ORD year round
-WN and F9 will grow to fill the void left by reduced B6 service.
-Overall pax levels will go up a bit but not as dramatically as 2018.
- More mainline equipment during the slower winter months (A319's and A320's to CLT and PHL, MD-90's to ATL, 738's to EWR ) driven by an increase in Mainers choosing PWM over BOS.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:29 pm

I think people are being a bit too bullish about all the growth there are expecting in 2019. Not everyone can have the growth many here are projecting.

A recession and macroeconomic slowdown in 2019 is highly, highly likely—and it’s very difficult for anyone to grow in that environment (unless it’s coming at another airports expense). The face thing businesses will do is cut T&E expenses; a severe hit to the business travel segment.

The most optimistic scenario would be single-digit growth at PWM & BTV, and plateau/stagnation at MHT (better than double-digit decline). Southwest will continue having trouble matching the fair deflation from the legacies and I’m not sure the legacies will be able to fill the void at MHT.

I’d be very surprised to see routes like DFW for AA and DEN for UA. I think we may see more retrenching than new routes. I would bet UA actually pulls back capacity at PWM—they’re definitely not making that airport a priority for them—and same thing fro DL at BTV. The best we can hope for is A320s on routes currently flown by A319s.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:59 pm

I am selfishly hoping for IND-BDL, as I will be commuting IND-BDL a lot this summer. Hopefully DL or another carrier can hop on this route
Delta Diamond Medallion and AAdvantage Gold for 2019
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:03 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Maybe not till 2020 since it seems a bit late to announce now but with how well F9 appears to have done with PWM-DEN, I’d be surprised if UA doesn’t jump on it soon, especially the way they’ve been adding routes “copycat” to F9s additions out of DEN


Fex180 wrote:
For PWM, my 2019 predictions would be :

-WN and F9 will grow to fill the void left by reduced B6 service.


WN could also add PWM-DEN nonstop service if there is enough demand for additional nonstop service to DEN from PWM since WN is still expanding at DEN and since WN has recently added a few new nonstop routes out of DEN.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:58 pm

2019 BDL predictions:

AS or DL BDL-SEA
WN- BNA, PHX
NK- DTW, MSY, AUS
F9- I doubt DEN will be the only addition, but I also believe they could pull out of BDL for a 3rd time
B6- maybe another destination in Puetro Rico, Ponce? Jamaica?
AA- not much growth, possibly another DFW frequency or PHX?
DL- IND, PIT
International- Jamaica will eventually happen. Possibly DL adding CDG or AMS as a long shot.

I doubt 1/4 of the above has a realistic shot at being added, however in the 3-5 year time frame much of the above could be possible.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:26 pm

My turn.
MHT 2019 perditions/wishlist.

WN- DEN,FLL
AA- larger equipment to ORD, LGA
DL- more frequencies to LGA
UA- ORD,EWR resuming
Long shot B6 NK F9 to MCO,FLL
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:42 pm

All waaaay too bullish, an economic slowdown plus a major major pilot shortage are going to limit growth in 2019. PWM is over saturated which is why B6 went seasonal, things like IAH and DFW are a pipe dream. F9 and WN will raise fares in B6’s wake, not add capacity.

Pilot time is quickly becoming a more valuable commodity than fuel which will dictate where capacity is added.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
cheapgreek
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:25 am

CairnterriAIR wrote:
UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.


GON had low loads when the Usairways 19 seat B-1900,s flew to PHL, an A-220 would be too large. So far the HVN-CLT flights are doing very well and have used the CRJ-700 for the first two Saturdays. The federal appeal case regarding the paving of the runway overruns has been heard and it seems HVN will win this time, in fact the states attorney,s testimony favored HVN instead of discrediting it. https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/ Allegiant airlines has said with the runway overruns paved, it would start Florida service. Hoping for DL to start HVN-DTW service and UA HVN-IAD service. It appears the CRJ-700 is the best RJ for HVN's present runway and will not take weight restrictions as the CRJ-200's do.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:40 am

RL757PVD wrote:
All waaaay too bullish, an economic slowdown plus a major major pilot shortage are going to limit growth in 2019. PWM is over saturated which is why B6 went seasonal, things like IAH and DFW are a pipe dream. F9 and WN will raise fares in B6’s wake, not add capacity.

Pilot time is quickly becoming a more valuable commodity than fuel which will dictate where capacity is added.


I agree, a lot of those are very unlikely, but this time last year PWM-DEN on F9 would have been called pretty outlandish too, I think the most realistic options for Portland are slightly scaled up equipment and frequency on existing routes, maybe 1 or 2 new destinations from F9.

and on your other point, F9 and WN definitely haven't raised fares so far for the winter / spring season, at least not noticeably.
Last edited by Fex180 on Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:40 am

tomaheath wrote:
My turn.
MHT 2019 perditions/wishlist.

WN- DEN,FLL
AA- larger equipment to ORD, LGA
DL- more frequencies to LGA
UA- ORD,EWR resuming
Long shot B6 NK F9 to MCO,FLL



I can't imagine UA making themselves look foolish by returning to a route they abandoned. I do like the thought of AA E-190s to ORD, but I'm not sure they run that type through there. But what it will take to get that is tremendous demand once the service starts. Anything by anyone west of Chicago would be a huge 'get.'
 
F27500
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:39 am

cheapgreek wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:
UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.


GON had low loads when the Usairways 19 seat B-1900,s flew to PHL, an A-220 would be too large. So far the HVN-CLT flights are doing very well and have used the CRJ-700 for the first two Saturdays. The federal appeal case regarding the paving of the runway overruns has been heard and it seems HVN will win this time, in fact the states attorney,s testimony favored HVN instead of discrediting it. https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/ Allegiant airlines has said with the runway overruns paved, it would start Florida service. Hoping for DL to start HVN-DTW service and UA HVN-IAD service. It appears the CRJ-700 is the best RJ for HVN's present runway and will not take weight restrictions as the CRJ-200's do.


GON (as BDR) has seen the last of its commercial service. Theres just no need at either city anymore.

HVN to DTW? Meh …. ATL would do much better .. it would capture connections to the south/Florida … DTW is too far outta the way for south bound traffic .. it would only grab westbound.

I know so many people who have this hard on for HVN-Washington service … but having worked for NewAir, Pilgrim, Business Express and USAirways Express .. all at HVN … I can tell you its not a huge market. Even US discontinued it when Piedmont Dash 8s were on it .. and if they couldn't make it work back in the heyday of US at DCA, then no one will now. IAD with UA never did well before .. (J-31s and EMB-120s in the 90s) .. and it won't now either, in my opinion. But I'd love to be proven wrong.

Daily AA to CLT … some DL to ATL … lets start there … with the right RJ aircraft …. and my pipe dream? JetBlue A220 to Florida a little down the road!
 
cheapgreek
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:35 am

F27500 wrote:
cheapgreek wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:
UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.


GON had low loads when the Usairways 19 seat B-1900,s flew to PHL, an A-220 would be too large. So far the HVN-CLT flights are doing very well and have used the CRJ-700 for the first two Saturdays. The federal appeal case regarding the paving of the runway overruns has been heard and it seems HVN will win this time, in fact the states attorney,s testimony favored HVN instead of discrediting it. https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/ Allegiant airlines has said with the runway overruns paved, it would start Florida service. Hoping for DL to start HVN-DTW service and UA HVN-IAD service. It appears the CRJ-700 is the best RJ for HVN's present runway and will not take weight restrictions as the CRJ-200's do.


GON (as BDR) has seen the last of its commercial service. Theres just no need at either city anymore.

HVN to DTW? Meh …. ATL would do much better .. it would capture connections to the south/Florida … DTW is too far outta the way for south bound traffic .. it would only grab westbound.

I know so many people who have this hard on for HVN-Washington service … but having worked for NewAir, Pilgrim, Business Express and USAirways Express .. all at HVN … I can tell you its not a huge market. Even US discontinued it when Piedmont Dash 8s were on it .. and if they couldn't make it work back in the heyday of US at DCA, then no one will now. IAD with UA never did well before .. (J-31s and EMB-120s in the 90s) .. and it won't now either, in my opinion. But I'd love to be proven wrong.

Daily AA to CLT … some DL to ATL … lets start there … with the right RJ aircraft …. and my pipe dream? JetBlue A220 to Florida a little down the road!


Years back NW twice proposed HVN-DTW, first with a DC-9 and then a CRJ-100. Both did not make the cut due to the runway. DTW is closer to HVN than ATL and with the CRJ-700, E-170 and E-175, these flights could work. There is a large untapped market in the New Haven metro area that could support flights to PHL, CLT, DTW, ATL and ORD. Much depends on the court's decision on the runway and a ruling is expected soon. HHH will soon be offering flights to EWR, ORD, DCA, IAD in addition to the existing CLT flights, and all these flights will be off a 5000 foot runway with displaced thresholds at both ends. HVN has a 5600 foot runway so even now more opportunities exist for increased service. There is a larger population base that surrounds HVN than does BDL, so the market is there, and with AA's success at HVN and now CLT, hopefully DL and UA will want a share of the market that AA has all to itself.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 am

Too difficult to predict, but here is my top 10 wishlist for PVD:

DFW
MSP
IAH
CUN
LAS
PHX
LAX
SFO
SJU
PUJ
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:54 am

WN could add PVD-STL nonstop service since (a) STL is one of the top destinations traveled to from PVD that isn't currently served nonstop from PVD, (b) WN would be able to connect passengers to other destinations west of the Mississippi from PVD through STL if WN adds PVD-STL nonstop service, (c) WN is still expanding at STL, and (d) WN has added new nonstop routes out of STL during the last 3 years.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:14 pm

For BTV, if I had to bet money I would predict not a lot of change. However, since there is no fun in that here's what I see as best case/worst case possibilities:

Best Case
- Frontier extends MCO beyond the current Feb-Apr schedule and adds DEN.

- Somebody makes BTV's fondest desire a reality and adds BOS service. I feel like there are more benefits for JetBlue, but Delta would have less to risk with the option of a smaller RJ. Both seem to have enough of a network from BOS to allow connections to make a meaningful contribution to the sales.

- AA finally breaks down and starts flying 'real' mainline equipment. Maybe just once??

- Porter returns to BTV for 2019-2020. Pre-clearance at YTZ would help but I'm not sure if that is possible in 2019. Porter did cite other issues, though, and maybe they could be addressed.


Worst Case
- Frontier does not return to BTV for winter 2019-2020. I'm just not sure if the ULCC model is a good fit for BTV. It obviously wasn't a home run for Allegiant (granted they also had PBG nearby)

- JetBlue drops BTV. I don't know if their traffic patterns at BTV would allow for a feasible seasonal operation.

- UA pulls back most or all of the mainline equipment that was added in 2018.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:40 pm

My prediction for MHT:
:checkeredflag: They add a Quickie-Mart with 12 gas pumps about a half mile from the entrance. :lol:
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:06 pm

A DHS ICE 737-400 from Louisiana landed at PSM this morning. :stirthepot:
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:45 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN could add PVD-STL nonstop service since (a) STL is one of the top destinations traveled to from PVD that isn't currently served nonstop from PVD, (b) WN would be able to connect passengers to other destinations west of the Mississippi from PVD through STL if WN adds PVD-STL nonstop service, (c) WN is still expanding at STL, and (d) WN has added new nonstop routes out of STL during the last 3 years.


All good points. WN currently has a monopoly from New England (BOS and BDL) to STL so it seems to be an opportunity.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:57 pm

PVD-STL could also be a good preemptive strike for when B6 ultimately adds it.

Whats holding PVD back in a lot of cases is the fare war at BOS. DFW is a good example of that, its a fare war bloodbath still so it makes it hard for AA to come in generate any sort of premium.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:46 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
PVD-STL could also be a good preemptive strike for when B6 ultimately adds it.

Whats holding PVD back in a lot of cases is the fare war at BOS. DFW is a good example of that, its a fare war bloodbath still so it makes it hard for AA to come in generate any sort of premium.

The ongoing fare wars at BOS are going to cut into growth at PVD and MHT as airlines throw everything they can into the fight, including keeping higher prices and fewer options at regional airports to encourage defection. Regional growth will most likely come from airlines not in the fight or have decided to cut their losses in it.
 
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kearnet
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:48 am

Rick Dyment is out as long time LEB manager

https://www.unionleader.com/news/local/ ... _id=664693
C402 9K | B1900D US | ATR72 AA | DHC8 US | CRJ2 US | E175 UA | E190 B6 | D93 US | M88 US/AA | 732 US | 733 US/WN | 734 US | 73G WN | B738 FJ/QF | B752 US/AA | B762 DL | B772 UA | B77W EK | F28 US | F100 US | A319 US | A320 B6 | A332 FJ | A380 EK
 
lat41
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:45 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN could add PVD-STL nonstop service since (a) STL is one of the top destinations traveled to from PVD that isn't currently served nonstop from PVD, (b) WN would be able to connect passengers to other destinations west of the Mississippi from PVD through STL if WN adds PVD-STL nonstop service, (c) WN is still expanding at STL, and (d) WN has added new nonstop routes out of STL during the last 3 years.

With the Southern New England pool of population and commerce, WN could do many things from PVD as they are aware. Unfortunately, in the past few years, viable flights that passengers were paying a premiun for were plucked away in order to support BOS to the North, where the fares and yield plummeted in the face of hammering competition there. any put backs or adds, will be slow to materialize although yes, STL would be a good one.
 
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Revelation
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:17 pm

lat41 wrote:
With the Southern New England pool of population and commerce, WN could do many things from PVD as they are aware. Unfortunately, in the past few years, viable flights that passengers were paying a premiun for were plucked away in order to support BOS to the North, where the fares and yield plummeted in the face of hammering competition there. any put backs or adds, will be slow to materialize although yes, STL would be a good one.

Do we know this to be true?

Do we know that WN is not making more money at BOS due to a bigger customer base to fill up less desirable flights, more affluent customers to get premiums from, and the fact that most of those secondary airport customers don't seem to mind driving to BOS when faced with poor flight selection at their home airport?

WN didn't care to be seen taking on competitors back in the 00s when it had its secondary airport strategy so I doubt it's about strategy, I suspect it's simply more profitable to operate their aircraft out of BOS rather than diversify across New England. In the 00s they had six major legacies all squatting on resources at the major airports. Now that it's shrunk to three majors and these majors avoid competing, I think they find they can make more money flying from the major airports.

The genie is out of the bottle and ain't going back in any time soon, IMHO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:27 pm

FYI: top 10 airports with no PVD nonstop service:

LAX
LAS
SAN
MSY
PHX
BNA
SFO
JAX
AUS
MSP
 
georgiabill
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:18 pm

I will chime in on my 2019 wish list for MHT.

WN restores non stop service MHT-DEN 1 additional daily MDW service or 1 daily MHT-STL and seasonal service MHT-FLL and or MHT-RSW saturday service.
AA hopefully is successful on their MHT-ORD service that they add additional frequency.
DL 2nd daily MHT-ATL more mainline MHT-DTW.
UA restores MHT-EWR service

For a new carrier if one were to consider commencing service I would guess NK with flights to FLL and MCO
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:52 pm

PVD757 wrote:
FYI: top 10 airports with no PVD nonstop service:

LAX
LAS
SAN
MSY
PHX
BNA
SFO
JAX
AUS
MSP

Where can this information be found? Thanks.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:21 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I will chime in on my 2019 wish list for MHT.

WN restores non stop service MHT-DEN 1 additional daily MDW service or 1 daily MHT-STL and seasonal service MHT-FLL and or MHT-RSW saturday service.
AA hopefully is successful on their MHT-ORD service that they add additional frequency.
DL 2nd daily MHT-ATL more mainline MHT-DTW.
UA restores MHT-EWR service

For a new carrier if one were to consider commencing service I would guess NK with flights to FLL and MCO


What DL MHT-DTW mainline service are you talking about? There is no mainline. There are 2 (only!) flights per day on CRJ-700's. I'm afraid there would need to be demand for 5+ flights/day before DL ever considers mainline.

ATL isn't daily either, it's less than daily. I believe it's now down to 3-4 flights/week. Getting that to daily service would be an improvement. The AA ORD service will stay summer seasonal at 2 flights daily, as it has at BTV and PWM. I'm afraid you may need to get your expectations in check.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:36 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I will chime in on my 2019 wish list for MHT.

WN restores non stop service MHT-DEN 1 additional daily MDW service or 1 daily MHT-STL and seasonal service MHT-FLL and or MHT-RSW saturday service.
AA hopefully is successful on their MHT-ORD service that they add additional frequency.
DL 2nd daily MHT-ATL more mainline MHT-DTW.
UA restores MHT-EWR service

For a new carrier if one were to consider commencing service I would guess NK with flights to FLL and MCO

Blows my mind that DL is stopping ALT for the winter perfect place to connect to all of Florida actually anywhere in general. Would of been nice for the 717 to stay on Detroit runs at least for the am departure.
 
georgiabill
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:49 am

Last summer DL had the 717 occasionally flying MHT-DTW. I realise DL is also suspending MHT service for the winter. Note I said 2019 wish list. More mainline MHT-DTW service would be more than occasional subs.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:53 pm

Here's my optimistic and pessimistic scenarios at BTV in 2019 (and likely beyond). Given macroeconomic trends I do foresee some retrenching at all of our regions airports, so things may very well til towards the bearish scenario.

Optimistic
PAX continues to grow mid-to-high single-digits to ~1.45-1.50 million
F9 expands, with at least 3-4 flights/week to DEN
UA continues more regular mainline service to IAD, with mainline service to all three hubs
B6 brings the long-awaited service to BOS (I realize DL is more likely though), daily RON at BTV
Porter restarts service to YTZ with a much better schedule for passengers so service can be sustainable
AA starts 'real' mainline service to CLT (A319 minimum) and makes ORD service (still likely on regionals) year-round
DL adds an additional mainline daily to ATL

Pessimistic/bearish
Total PAX counts decline 8-10% from ~1.4 million to ~1.3 million
B6 becomes summer seasonal (like PWM), and probably down to 2-3 flights to JFK per day from the current 4 dailies year-round
F9 pulls out completely after yield problems with their less-than-daily routes work
DL retrenches, possible ending JFK service or making ATL seasonal and/or less-than-daily
AA pulls the plug on DCA service
UA stops growing, and possibly downgrading some of the mainline to EWR, keeping it at 6 dailies but E175 or smaller (though I don't see any way ORD mainline can be risk)

Wish list (not likely to occur)
UA daily to DEN
In-terminal customs built and daily AC (E175 minimum) to YYZ
AA daily to DFW

I think there could be a mix. B6 is definitely in some trouble and losing market share nationwide. I can foresee situations where this would negatively impact BTV as it would any similarly-sized airport, but that doesn't say anything about BTV as a market in general and I have high confidence that the combination of growing legacies and F9 will quickly fill the void if such a scenarios plays out. Many people in City government are still hoping for WN at BTV but that's not realistic and they're facing similar challenges as B6, but much more acutely.

Overall I am not worried about United retrenching, but I am about AA. Every time over the last 1-2 years UA's made a big investment and upgraded routes to more regular mainline (as large as 737-900 and A321s briefly) AA has failed to answer and is losing market share as a result. BTV needs airlines to be competitive with each other to drive down ticket prices so people don't drive to YUL, BOS or MHT (though leakage to MHT isn't really an issue anymore). My because fear is UA will have increasing control of pricing at the airport, and fares will slowly rise and AA--or DL--won't be willing to provide an answer. The average BTV passenger is very price sensitive and the reason behind last years growth was expanded capacity brought prices below the MHT market and more competitive with BOS.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:24 pm

For BTV the focus has to be at keeping B6. The airlines are competitive on price closer to BOS, ALB, NYC prices than MHT, they need options to keep prices down and keep things good. You don't want to fall back into high prices. The airlines are competitive right now and things are good. I have gotten so many good fares out of BTV recently, keep the good times going.

Burlington is one of the original B6 cities, i would be surprised if they can't keep them happy but we might see them shift strategy a little. The airport has to keep them or really nothing else matters, you fall back into the legacies shrink seats and raise prices stranglehold so many smaller airports are in. Right now they are all watching each others fares.

Frontier is in test mode, we will see how MCO goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2xweekly DEN if it goes well for next Winter. I don't have numbers, but i remember the O&D to Denver is pretty high, might be very seasonal in demand, but its high.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:28 pm

btvhopper wrote:

What DL MHT-DTW mainline service are you talking about? There is no mainline. There are 2 (only!) flights per day on CRJ-700's. I'm afraid there would need to be demand for 5+ flights/day before DL ever considers mainline.


I was on a DL 717 MHT-DTW just this past October.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:54 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For BTV the focus has to be at keeping B6. The airlines are competitive on price closer to BOS, ALB, NYC prices than MHT, they need options to keep prices down and keep things good. You don't want to fall back into high prices. The airlines are competitive right now and things are good. I have gotten so many good fares out of BTV recently, keep the good times going.

Burlington is one of the original B6 cities, i would be surprised if they can't keep them happy but we might see them shift strategy a little. The airport has to keep them or really nothing else matters, you fall back into the legacies shrink seats and raise prices stranglehold so many smaller airports are in. Right now they are all watching each others fares.

Frontier is in test mode, we will see how MCO goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2xweekly DEN if it goes well for next Winter. I don't have numbers, but i remember the O&D to Denver is pretty high, might be very seasonal in demand, but its high.



O&D to Denver is best in summer. Here's what I found for numbers for the most recent two years:

Q1 36
Q2 47
Q3 58
Q4 46

Regarding MCO, is there any way to know how the bookings are? If I do a search there are still some pretty good fares for quite a few of the available dates, so my inclination is to think that there are still plenty of unsold seats. But maybe that's normal a few weeks out?
 
joeblow10
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:12 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For BTV the focus has to be at keeping B6. The airlines are competitive on price closer to BOS, ALB, NYC prices than MHT, they need options to keep prices down and keep things good. You don't want to fall back into high prices. The airlines are competitive right now and things are good. I have gotten so many good fares out of BTV recently, keep the good times going.

Burlington is one of the original B6 cities, i would be surprised if they can't keep them happy but we might see them shift strategy a little. The airport has to keep them or really nothing else matters, you fall back into the legacies shrink seats and raise prices stranglehold so many smaller airports are in. Right now they are all watching each others fares.

Frontier is in test mode, we will see how MCO goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2xweekly DEN if it goes well for next Winter. I don't have numbers, but i remember the O&D to Denver is pretty high, might be very seasonal in demand, but its high.



O&D to Denver is best in summer. Here's what I found for numbers for the most recent two years:

Q1 36
Q2 47
Q3 58
Q4 46

Regarding MCO, is there any way to know how the bookings are? If I do a search there are still some pretty good fares for quite a few of the available dates, so my inclination is to think that there are still plenty of unsold seats. But maybe that's normal a few weeks out?


Virtually impossible to tell how a flight is doing based on prices across the industry, but especially on Frontier. They care far less about yield and much more about full planes. I've seen last minute flights ex-DEN for $69 when UA and WN zero out everything ($69 vs. $348 for example), and my Frontier plane has been completely full.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 287
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:00 pm

btvhopper wrote:
What DL MHT-DTW mainline service are you talking about? There is no mainline. There are 2 (only!) flights per day on CRJ-700's. I'm afraid there would need to be demand for 5+ flights/day before DL ever considers mainline.

ATL isn't daily either, it's less than daily. I believe it's now down to 3-4 flights/week. Getting that to daily service would be an improvement. The AA ORD service will stay summer seasonal at 2 flights daily, as it has at BTV and PWM. I'm afraid you may need to get your expectations in check.

I don't understand where you got this information from. DL scales back service during the slow January to February period every year. The rest of the year sees x3 to DTW, x1 to ATL and X1-2 to LGA. As others have stated, DL ran mainline to DTW as recently as this last fall. ORD-MHT AA service was announced as year-round on 2xCR7. As for the expectations/wishes, everybody is having a little fun hoping for the best. I'm not sure why one person needs to keep their expectations in check.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 287
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:02 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For BTV the focus has to be at keeping B6. The airlines are competitive on price closer to BOS, ALB, NYC prices than MHT, they need options to keep prices down and keep things good. You don't want to fall back into high prices. The airlines are competitive right now and things are good. I have gotten so many good fares out of BTV recently, keep the good times going.

Burlington is one of the original B6 cities, i would be surprised if they can't keep them happy but we might see them shift strategy a little. The airport has to keep them or really nothing else matters, you fall back into the legacies shrink seats and raise prices stranglehold so many smaller airports are in. Right now they are all watching each others fares.

Frontier is in test mode, we will see how MCO goes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2xweekly DEN if it goes well for next Winter. I don't have numbers, but i remember the O&D to Denver is pretty high, might be very seasonal in demand, but its high.



O&D to Denver is best in summer. Here's what I found for numbers for the most recent two years:

Q1 36
Q2 47
Q3 58
Q4 46

Regarding MCO, is there any way to know how the bookings are? If I do a search there are still some pretty good fares for quite a few of the available dates, so my inclination is to think that there are still plenty of unsold seats. But maybe that's normal a few weeks out?


Virtually impossible to tell how a flight is doing based on prices across the industry, but especially on Frontier. They care far less about yield and much more about full planes. I've seen last minute flights ex-DEN for $69 when UA and WN zero out everything ($69 vs. $348 for example), and my Frontier plane has been completely full.
Really???
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:18 pm

So for the record WN wanted to fly out of BTV. They wanted roughly 5-6 flights a day and the airport said no. They wanted there own gate and counter space. BTV Airports felt it wouldn’t be a good mix for BTV. Well they went to PWM and look what happened. Competition in this market is good for prices
 
joeblow10
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:43 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:


O&D to Denver is best in summer. Here's what I found for numbers for the most recent two years:

Q1 36
Q2 47
Q3 58
Q4 46

Regarding MCO, is there any way to know how the bookings are? If I do a search there are still some pretty good fares for quite a few of the available dates, so my inclination is to think that there are still plenty of unsold seats. But maybe that's normal a few weeks out?


Virtually impossible to tell how a flight is doing based on prices across the industry, but especially on Frontier. They care far less about yield and much more about full planes. I've seen last minute flights ex-DEN for $69 when UA and WN zero out everything ($69 vs. $348 for example), and my Frontier plane has been completely full.
Really???


Relative to the other carriers, absolutely.

I guess a more “proper” way to say it is they care far less about yield and far more about load factor than other carriers.
 
Fex180
Posts: 215
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:21 pm

Blueknows wrote:
So for the record WN wanted to fly out of BTV. They wanted roughly 5-6 flights a day and the airport said no. They wanted there own gate and counter space. BTV Airports felt it wouldn’t be a good mix for BTV. Well they went to PWM and look what happened. Competition in this market is good for prices


When was this?? There's no way BTV could support 5-6 daily rt's from WN, maybe 2-3 max

Also WN didn't really "go to" PWM, they just inherited it from AirTran, and they haven't done a whole lot at PWM since they started in 2013. They've shown a lot of disinterest in MHT and PWM recently.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:01 am

Btv could support it if they built a new terminal that functions properly...wishful thinking
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4350
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:50 am

I wonder how difficult would it be for BTV to connect their two gate areas? Right now it's gates 1-7, then 8-15 seperated. They would only need one TSA screening section, would feel larger, more seating area walking room etc. They could also keep one store/restaurnat open later for delays etc
There would be a lot of benefits for customers. I think the airport would work better if they were connected. Seems like you could build a walkway with ease and connect the two, why do they even have 2 separate sections?
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 995
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:18 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:24 pm

Fex180 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
So for the record WN wanted to fly out of BTV. They wanted roughly 5-6 flights a day and the airport said no. They wanted there own gate and counter space. BTV Airports felt it wouldn’t be a good mix for BTV. Well they went to PWM and look what happened. Competition in this market is good for prices


When was this?? There's no way BTV could support 5-6 daily rt's from WN, maybe 2-3 max

Also WN didn't really "go to" PWM, they just inherited it from AirTran, and they haven't done a whole lot at PWM since they started in 2013. They've shown a lot of disinterest in MHT and PWM recently.


I can't find a source right now, but the way I remember it was the other way around - BTV was courting WN, but WN didn't think BTV would support the 5-6 flights a day.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:48 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I wonder how difficult would it be for BTV to connect their two gate areas? Right now it's gates 1-7, then 8-15 seperated. They would only need one TSA screening section, would feel larger, more seating area walking room etc. They could also keep one store/restaurnat open later for delays etc
There would be a lot of benefits for customers. I think the airport would work better if they were connected. Seems like you could build a walkway with ease and connect the two, why do they even have 2 separate sections?


I'm not sure where I saw it, but I recall a comment a while back that this had been determined to be cost-prohibitive.

The original terminal building is now the center section. The available land is fairly narrow so it was probably only practical to expand in two directions.
 
btvhopper
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:33 pm

BTV's enplanement statistics are in for November (December delayed due to the holidays I'm guessing). UA still going bonkers, up +43% YOY while AA is flat. Delta's up too, though much less notable in an absolute sense. I think its just higher frequency, especially to JFK and LGA. B6 is still facing challenges, and is down again (though load factor up from last month) which is very troubling and worrisome. F9 can't come soon enough.

I've stored the statistics here, which includes details for every other month YTD too. I'm guessing BTV will end the calendar year ~685k enplancements and just shy of 1.4 million PAX, so no record but growth is nonetheless growth.

UA mainline's load factor was only 73% for November; would BTV be at risk of losing some of the mainline service to EWR or ORD at that level?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yxVon2 ... sp=sharing
 
BTVB6Flyer
Posts: 475
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:20 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:41 pm

Does anyone know what gate F9 is using at BTV?
 
btvhopper
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:44 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Does anyone know what gate F9 is using at BTV?


I imagine something in the South terminal (Delta and Jetblue) as there should be more space there. I did notice the aiport is purchasing another passenger bridge in the next month or two so I'm wondering if that's for F9.
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