btvhopper wrote:

I don't have any data to back up, but I would guess that a majority of B6's customer base at BTV is O&D w/ JFK rather than connections. As far as connections I would guess most BTV-based B6 passengers are headed to the west coast; many redeye options from JFK to SFO and SEA, which are popular destinations from BTV.

I am cautiously optimistic that the JFK/west cost-oriented B6 flights at BTV are different enough from F9 O&D flights to DEN and MCO that the two carriers will compliment and coexist with one another rather than cannibalize each other.

I looked at some numbers in the DOT reports a while back and for the quarters I checked around 60%-70% of the B6 traffic was connecting. I think I also tried to find where it was going and there was quite a bit of transcon.

I would agree that F9 to DEN doesn't seem like it would take away much from B6. MCO and other possible FL destinations might be another story, though.

I don't think B6 will lose too much from Frontier. The connections are often not ideal, on btv-den most of the year. Times just don't link up well. Too long layovers often.

BTV also has a very young population of die hard skiers with epic passes, cheap flights will really stiumlate demand. I bet they go summer and winter not fall or spring. Should stiumlate demand alot based on the Burlington population. The flight has gotten way more buzz than Orlando, Denver will be a hit.

mjgbtv wrote:

Allegiant was also competing with themselves at PBG, and there is probably too much overlap in the catchment area for both to do well for them.

RIght, but the network folks at Allegiant knew they'd be competing with themselves and they aren't stupid, so there must have been some other factor(s) in the mix. Maybe they thought by entering BTV they could stimulate demand and it didn't materialize (Oil prices were much higher then, which would have put more constraint on the airfares they could offer). Or maybe they expected the route subsidy $$ to be worth more than what they'd lose from the cross-lake competition and they were always planning to cut and run when the subsidies ran out (I've seen more than one poster here say that Allegiant will chase route subsidies).

Speaking of oil prices, I think Frontier has a better chance than Allegiant simply based on that factor alone. They are much lower now than when Allegiant was running BTV-SFB. This gives Frontier more flexibility to offer lower airfares and stimulate demand. I doubt we'd be seeing BTV-DEN, in particular, with $90-100 oil.

btvhopper wrote:

Would anyone with insights on PWM be able to explain how the F9 DEN service is doing?

Right now, the BTV-DEN flight is 3x weekly year-round. It seems like F9 is constantly dropping/adding routes. I'm just curious, what's the status of the PWM route? Was it first marketed as seasonal or year-round, and have they upped the frequency?

Is BTV-DEN year round? I don't think F9 has even released their winter 2019/20 schedule yet.

By all accounts it's been a very successful route. It ran 3x weekly until November and it's coming back as a daily service (that or 5-6 x weekly, not entirely sure) starting in May. It might stay as a year round route for winter of 2019/20 .

Still hoping F9 announces some new routes from PWM for the summer. Maybe ORD or ATL.

Blueknows wrote:

F9 will add flights from BTV. Just like PWM BTV will most likely get direct RDU/RSW/TPA. They just go by numbers,and these are profitable routes out if BTV. Also Quebec is investing in ST HUBERT airport. They are building a low cost airline hub for canadien airlines and travelers. Next couple of years see canadien travel slow down. Unless PBG gets more airlines they are done.

PBG is doing great. I don't see Spirit or Allegiant leaving there. Drive thru the PBG parking lot it's like 1/3 Vermont Plates, 1/3 NY, and 1/3 Quebec. They are getting a great mix of pulling in Burlington area people for the ULCCs, pulling in Canadians, and tapping the Northern NY snowbirds so they dont have to drive to BTV. Frontier MCO flight is a minor dent for them, i dont see that or St Hubert hurting them too much. St Hubert will have the high taxes and im sure much higher parking costs. St Hubert if anything will pull flyers from YUL. The people who are extreme price driven will still drive to PBG. PBG will be fine, maybe a tad of rightsizing, but they will be fine. Allegiant and Spirit are happy there.

Speaking of PBG, I'm actually a bit surprised NK hasn't tried PBG-MCO yet.

As of the Sept 2018 numbers PBG was down 20% year over year, so I think some rightsizing happened. I can't find the airline report right now, but I think I looked a while back and the NK numbers had dropped. It looks like someone did MCO but dropped it last year.

Fex180 wrote:

Is BTV-DEN year round? I don't think F9 has even released their winter 2019/20 schedule yet.

By all accounts it's been a very successful route. It ran 3x weekly until November and it's coming back as a daily service (that or 5-6 x weekly, not entirely sure) starting in May. It might stay as a year round route for winter of 2019/20 .

If you look at their press release all the other new DEN routes Frontier announced this week were marked as "Seasonal" in that release (including BOS). The BTV and Mobile routes didn't have the "Season" denotation. I would guess that they're not planning for it to be seasonal, for now, but it might turnout that way.

https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... to-mobile/

DEN has been a long-sought route. It's the 2nd most popular destination (after SFO) for BTV-originating passengers of all airports not currently serviced with nonstop. The number of Vermonters now with Epic Passes will create a lot of demand in the winter. If they can make the 3x weekly work in the summer (and I'm sure they will be able to) I don't see any issues with the rest of the year. October/November may be the tricky time.

I could see the DEN route becoming a 5-6x weekly, or even a daily, but I would also guess they drop the MCO route all together (maybe keep it very seasonal, February-April or something) and I highly doubt they'll add any other Florida/Southeast routes (including RDU); or if they do I can't imagine there's enough O&D demand to be sustainable. Vermonters love Colorado and a lot of aging Vermont parents have grown children who now live in Colorado. There are great fundamentals for this route to organically grow new, incremental demand and not cannibalize UA. The DEN route makes so much more sense for BTV than MCO.

It seems Frontier is looking at both PWM and BTV as markets, rather than as destinations as many other airlines do. When UA expands service they talk about how much New Yorkers love traveling to BTV; when B6 ended year-round service to PWM they also mentioned PWM as a destination with strong summer demand.

btvhopper wrote:

It seems Frontier is looking at both PWM and BTV as markets, rather than as destinations as many other airlines do. When UA expands service they talk about how much New Yorkers love traveling to BTV; when B6 ended year-round service to PWM they also mentioned PWM as a destination with strong summer demand.

I think that's the biggest reason Frontier has been so successful at PWM. They seem to do best in markets that have strong local demand AND strong destination demand. Portland certainly has that, as does Burlington on a slightly smaller scale. F9 has been actively courting Maine based travelers in their marketing, and their flights to MCO, TPA and RSW are doing quite well as a result.

btvhopper wrote:

DEN has been a long-sought route. It's the 2nd most popular destination (after SFO) for BTV-originating passengers of all airports not currently serviced with nonstop. The number of Vermonters now with Epic Passes will create a lot of demand in the winter. If they can make the 3x weekly work in the summer (and I'm sure they will be able to) I don't see any issues with the rest of the year. October/November may be the tricky time.

I could see the DEN route becoming a 5-6x weekly, or even a daily, but I would also guess they drop the MCO route all together (maybe keep it very seasonal, February-April or something) and I highly doubt they'll add any other Florida/Southeast routes (including RDU); or if they do I can't imagine there's enough O&D demand to be sustainable. Vermonters love Colorado and a lot of aging Vermont parents have grown children who now live in Colorado. There are great fundamentals for this route to organically grow new, incremental demand and not cannibalize UA. The DEN route makes so much more sense for BTV than MCO.

MCO O&D is a bit less than DEN. RDU is about half of DEN. I could see MCO sticking around. RDU seems doubtful.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

The flight has gotten way more buzz than Orlando, Denver will be a hit.

There rightfully should be buzz. The Denver route lifts BTV from being an eastern-US regional airport to the national stage.

mjgbtv wrote:

MCO O&D is a bit less than DEN. RDU is about half of DEN. I could see MCO sticking around. RDU seems doubtful.

Can you post the numbers for DEN? There's a lot of talk about how good the numbers are, but I don't think anyone's actually shown them.

B595 wrote:

Can you post the numbers for DEN? There's a lot of talk about how good the numbers are, but I don't think anyone's actually shown them.

Here are the numbers for 2017 and 2018. This is daily each way:

2017 Q1 34
2017 Q2 41
2017 Q3 51
2017 Q4 46
2018 Q1 39
2018 Q2 53

You can get this here: https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... -b2ir/data

mjgbtv wrote:

Here are the numbers for 2017 and 2018. This is daily each way:

Thanks. Not too bad for starters. Those numbers are split across all airlines, though, so Frontier must be expecting a good amount of market stimulation (they can't count on poaching everyone from the other airlines).

B595 wrote:

Frontier must be expecting a good amount of market stimulation (they can't count on poaching everyone from the other airlines).

Or they're expecting a lot of connecting traffic.

I really do think DEN can work. Saying that I can't see daily. It's a good less than daily route they need to push those o&d numbers. Alot of travellers will adjust for frontiers low prices and n/s.

More or less the same (pre-F9) pax numbers that PWM had for DEN...and we all know they were able to stimulate demand there. I think BTV route will be at least as successful. I doubt there will be much, if any, connecting traffic though. F9 is still an O&D airline.

btvhopper wrote:

More or less the same (pre-F9) pax numbers that PWM had for DEN...

That's encouraging to know.

DL finally announces ORH to DTW starting August 2019! Reflected in enilria weekly updates.

iyerhari wrote:

DL finally announces ORH to DTW starting August 2019! Reflected in enilria weekly updates.

My suspicion on this was DL waiting to make sure that the Gate 3/4 jetbridge works were going to be completed in time. With AA and B6 taking 1 and 2 they didn’t really have an option, be interested to see whether they take 3 or 4 and if Massport has anything up their sleeves for the 4th Gate or they make it common use for future expansion.

Why does the city of Warwick want more money from PVD? I also don't get why some people in RI also complain about the airport being favorable to the Patriots and their 763. The airport got a ton of free press today by the Boston media given the team left from their for Atlanta today. That alone should offset any costs the airport is not charging the team.

B752OS wrote:

Why does the city of Warwick want more money from PVD? I also don't get why some people in RI also complain about the airport being favorable to the Patriots and their 763. The airport got a ton of free press today by the Boston media given the team left from their for Atlanta today. That alone should offset any costs the airport is not charging the team.

"If the Rhode Island Airport Corp. can afford to host the Patriots’ airplanes, without charge, shouldn’t the airport be able to provide greater financial assistance to its host city?"

"During the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018, the airport gained almost $1 million in marketing and promotional benefits from the Patriots, while waiving about $118,000 in landing and parking fees for the team’s jets, according to the airport’s spokesman, Bill Fischer."

https://www.providencejournal.com/news/ ... m-tf-green

The City of Warwick simply wants a piece of the pie.

PVDspotting wrote:

B752OS wrote:

Why does the city of Warwick want more money from PVD? I also don't get why some people in RI also complain about the airport being favorable to the Patriots and their 763. The airport got a ton of free press today by the Boston media given the team left from their for Atlanta today. That alone should offset any costs the airport is not charging the team.

"If the Rhode Island Airport Corp. can afford to host the Patriots’ airplanes, without charge, shouldn’t the airport be able to provide greater financial assistance to its host city?"

"During the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018, the airport gained almost $1 million in marketing and promotional benefits from the Patriots, while waiving about $118,000 in landing and parking fees for the team’s jets, according to the airport’s spokesman, Bill Fischer."

https://www.providencejournal.com/news/ ... m-tf-green

The City of Warwick simply wants a piece of the pie.

"An annual payment from the airport of $1 million would be a good starting point"

I'd be curious to know just how much money the city wants from PVD.

Wow, UA’s BTV-DEN announcement today is pretty crazy. Unbelievably quick response to the F9 announcement last week.

I think UA could really work, even as year round and more frequent. There is so much demand for DEN nonstop that is presently leaked to BOS that originates from the Burlington/Vermont area that could be picked up. A lot more demand than the 60-70 enplanements/day seen in the DOT data. Plus there will be connection traffic to places like SFO as well as smaller markets like SLC or BZN which still see strong demand in the Burlington market . We may not see the 2-3x daily A320’s currently flies to ORD though. I’ll take some cannibalization to ORD for a successful DEN route.

btvhopper wrote:

Wow, UA’s BTV-DEN announcement today is pretty crazy. Unbelievably quick response to the F9 announcement last week.

I think UA could really work, even as year round and more frequent. There is so much demand for DEN nonstop that is presently leaked to BOS that originates from the Burlington/Vermont area that could be picked up. A lot more demand than the 60-70 enplanements/day seen in the DOT data. Plus there will be connection traffic to places like SFO as well as smaller markets like SLC or BZN which still see strong demand in the Burlington market . We may not see the 2-3x daily A320’s currently flies to ORD though. I’ll take some cannibalization to ORD for a successful DEN route.

Even as a Saturday only flight that's a big win for BTV. I wonder if PWM will get UA service to DEN

btvhopper wrote:

Wow, UA’s BTV-DEN announcement today is pretty crazy. Unbelievably quick response to the F9 announcement last week.

I think UA could really work, even as year round and more frequent. There is so much demand for DEN nonstop that is presently leaked to BOS that originates from the Burlington/Vermont area that could be picked up. A lot more demand than the 60-70 enplanements/day seen in the DOT data. Plus there will be connection traffic to places like SFO as well as smaller markets like SLC or BZN which still see strong demand in the Burlington market . We may not see the 2-3x daily A320’s currently flies to ORD though. I’ll take some cannibalization to ORD for a successful DEN route.

I can't believe the UA BTV route...it's either going to be doom or gloom. Either they both end up leaving once F9 is gone or they both or one sustain.

At 1x weekly to DEN I think ORD is fine for now. If DEN can get up to 3x weekly then maybe ORD drops a tad which is fine.

I think for UA to bee good on this route it needs to be 2x add in a early mid week flight for those not wanting to do a full week.

Does anybody know if UA is bringing back the BDL/SFO route or when it will be available? I have looked around the second week of June on the United site and haven't seen anything yet? I don't remember hearing about the route being cut? Thanks.

Manchester, NH Airport Reports Continued Decline in Passengers
Officials at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport in New Hampshire have reported another decline in passengers for the 13th year.
The airport says there were 123,000 fewer passengers in 2018 compared to 2017, a 6.2 percent decrease.
New Hampshire Public Radio reports much of the loss is due to a decrease in passengers on the airport's largest carrier, Southwest Airlines.
Airport Director Ted Kitchens says the decrease is a reflection of larger changes in the aviation industry. He says he plans to meet with Southwest officials in the coming weeks to convince them to add flights back to the airport. Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig tells WMUR-TV recent commitments to increase air service from American Airlines and United Airlines will have a positive impact on the airport. I think there is a more underlining issue that no one is addressing. With BTV growing on one side, PWM growing on the other side, and PSM adding flights, and BOS to the south. You cannot blame your 95% market share(SWA) for loss of passengers. United is ending service to EWR but adding IAD...that's an increase? oh wait AA is adding a flight to ORD in the summer..that's and increase also? stop the blame game...pull up the big boy pants and work on maintaining the service you have before any more bridges are burned...aka SWA...

paysonmt77 wrote:

I think there is a more underlining issue that no one is addressing. With BTV growing on one side, PWM growing on the other side, and PSM adding flights, and BOS to the south. You cannot blame your 95% market share(SWA) for loss of passengers. United is ending service to EWR but adding IAD...that's an increase? oh wait AA is adding a flight to ORD in the summer..that's and increase also? stop the blame game...pull up the big boy pants and work on maintaining the service you have before any more bridges are burned...aka SWA...

A few thoughts on your post:
Yes, BTV and PWM are growing, which is great. I would speculate that most of this growth is from recapturing their own markets and market stimulation from good fares. I don't think either is exactly stealing the native MHT market. BOS is doing a great job with doing that.

United ending EWR and adding IAD is technically an upgrade. EWR has been running 2-3 times a day. IAD will be done x3 times a day with mostly larger aircraft. On paper, that's really not a big deal. What will be a big deal is flight completion and on-time records. MHT-EWR are notoriously delayed and cancelled because of congestion at EWR. Just having reliable service out of MHT will be an upgrade in itself and will boost passenger numbers.

AA adding ORD service for the summer? I keep hearing this, but it's wrong. It's year-round service according to AA.

95% market share for SWA? It seems that way, and I'm sure you are having fun exaggerating the number to help make your point. WN is important to MHT. Probably too much so. A big part of MHT's declining numbers are because of WN decisions. They have made the marketing decision to flow more traffic over BOS to make sure those flights go out full, especially east-west flights. As a result, low fares from MHT are considerably less available than found at BOS. In fact, MHT now has the distinction of having the highest average fare of New England airports (mid to large size), and this is driven by the airport's largest airline, WN. There certainly is room to have discussions with WN over this market decision.

I really don't think that when MHT stabilizes and recovers, that it's going to steal many passengers from BTV or PWM. It's going to come from finding a balance with offerings at BOS and realizing they can serve a good number of local passengers at lower costs from MHT. This is already happening at PVD.

paysonmt77 wrote:

Manchester, NH Airport Reports Continued Decline in Passengers
Officials at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport in New Hampshire have reported another decline in passengers for the 13th year.
The airport says there were 123,000 fewer passengers in 2018 compared to 2017, a 6.2 percent decrease.
New Hampshire Public Radio reports much of the loss is due to a decrease in passengers on the airport's largest carrier, Southwest Airlines.
Airport Director Ted Kitchens says the decrease is a reflection of larger changes in the aviation industry. He says he plans to meet with Southwest officials in the coming weeks to convince them to add flights back to the airport. Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig tells WMUR-TV recent commitments to increase air service from American Airlines and United Airlines will have a positive impact on the airport. I think there is a more underlining issue that no one is addressing. With BTV growing on one side, PWM growing on the other side, and PSM adding flights, and BOS to the south. You cannot blame your 95% market share(SWA) for loss of passengers. United is ending service to EWR but adding IAD...that's an increase? oh wait AA is adding a flight to ORD in the summer..that's and increase also? stop the blame game...pull up the big boy pants and work on maintaining the service you have before any more bridges are burned...aka SWA...

Having seen the numbers, this is not all on SWA. UA has a lot to answer for.. I hadn't posted them yet due to time, but in December, UA dropped more pax than WN alone, dropped nearly 7,000 pax and over 62%. so where this positive impact is coming from is beyond me. This is a spin, but it's not a good one, because rarely do numbers lie and in this case they certainly don't. If I get a chance, I will post my analysis, and it's not pretty, not at all.

VS4ever wrote:

paysonmt77 wrote:

Manchester, NH Airport Reports Continued Decline in Passengers
Officials at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport in New Hampshire have reported another decline in passengers for the 13th year.
The airport says there were 123,000 fewer passengers in 2018 compared to 2017, a 6.2 percent decrease.
New Hampshire Public Radio reports much of the loss is due to a decrease in passengers on the airport's largest carrier, Southwest Airlines.
Airport Director Ted Kitchens says the decrease is a reflection of larger changes in the aviation industry. He says he plans to meet with Southwest officials in the coming weeks to convince them to add flights back to the airport. Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig tells WMUR-TV recent commitments to increase air service from American Airlines and United Airlines will have a positive impact on the airport. I think there is a more underlining issue that no one is addressing. With BTV growing on one side, PWM growing on the other side, and PSM adding flights, and BOS to the south. You cannot blame your 95% market share(SWA) for loss of passengers. United is ending service to EWR but adding IAD...that's an increase? oh wait AA is adding a flight to ORD in the summer..that's and increase also? stop the blame game...pull up the big boy pants and work on maintaining the service you have before any more bridges are burned...aka SWA...

Having seen the numbers, this is not all on SWA. UA has a lot to answer for.. I hadn't posted them yet due to time, but in December, UA dropped more pax than WN alone, dropped nearly 7,000 pax and over 62%. so where this positive impact is coming from is beyond me. This is a spin, but it's not a good one, because rarely do numbers lie and in this case they certainly don't. If I get a chance, I will post my analysis, and it's not pretty, not at all.

One of the MHT locals can speak to this better than I can, but I think if you are looking year over year for UA, this year represents the loss of x3 daily ORD flights. If it represented a decrease of 62%, then that suggests that those ORD flights were more full than UA let on. This is probably why AA is jumping in. I think the positive is coming from AA. They are doing mainline again to PHL.

LotsaRunway wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

paysonmt77 wrote:

Manchester, NH Airport Reports Continued Decline in Passengers
Officials at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport in New Hampshire have reported another decline in passengers for the 13th year.
The airport says there were 123,000 fewer passengers in 2018 compared to 2017, a 6.2 percent decrease.
New Hampshire Public Radio reports much of the loss is due to a decrease in passengers on the airport's largest carrier, Southwest Airlines.
Airport Director Ted Kitchens says the decrease is a reflection of larger changes in the aviation industry. He says he plans to meet with Southwest officials in the coming weeks to convince them to add flights back to the airport. Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig tells WMUR-TV recent commitments to increase air service from American Airlines and United Airlines will have a positive impact on the airport. I think there is a more underlining issue that no one is addressing. With BTV growing on one side, PWM growing on the other side, and PSM adding flights, and BOS to the south. You cannot blame your 95% market share(SWA) for loss of passengers. United is ending service to EWR but adding IAD...that's an increase? oh wait AA is adding a flight to ORD in the summer..that's and increase also? stop the blame game...pull up the big boy pants and work on maintaining the service you have before any more bridges are burned...aka SWA...

Having seen the numbers, this is not all on SWA. UA has a lot to answer for.. I hadn't posted them yet due to time, but in December, UA dropped more pax than WN alone, dropped nearly 7,000 pax and over 62%. so where this positive impact is coming from is beyond me. This is a spin, but it's not a good one, because rarely do numbers lie and in this case they certainly don't. If I get a chance, I will post my analysis, and it's not pretty, not at all.

One of the MHT locals can speak to this better than I can, but I think if you are looking year over year for UA, this year represents the loss of x3 daily ORD flights. If it represented a decrease of 62%, then that suggests that those ORD flights were more full than UA let on. This is probably why AA is jumping in. I think the positive is coming from AA. They are doing mainline again to PHL.

It really seems like MHT is grasping at straws. 2x daily to ORD?? 3x daily to IAD? that's not exactly something to be excited about. What MHT really needs is a new carrier, or fresh destinations from WN. That would probably be the only way to pull back a meaningful number of passengers. What are the odds of MHT pulling in Spirit or Frontier??

Fex180 wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

Having seen the numbers, this is not all on SWA. UA has a lot to answer for.. I hadn't posted them yet due to time, but in December, UA dropped more pax than WN alone, dropped nearly 7,000 pax and over 62%. so where this positive impact is coming from is beyond me. This is a spin, but it's not a good one, because rarely do numbers lie and in this case they certainly don't. If I get a chance, I will post my analysis, and it's not pretty, not at all.

One of the MHT locals can speak to this better than I can, but I think if you are looking year over year for UA, this year represents the loss of x3 daily ORD flights. If it represented a decrease of 62%, then that suggests that those ORD flights were more full than UA let on. This is probably why AA is jumping in. I think the positive is coming from AA. They are doing mainline again to PHL.

It really seems like MHT is grasping at straws. 2x daily to ORD?? 3x daily to IAD? that's not exactly something to be excited about. What MHT really needs is a new carrier, or fresh destinations from WN. That would probably be the only way to pull back a meaningful number of passengers. What are the odds of MHT pulling in Spirit or Frontier??

Given that Frontier now flies to PWM, PSM, BOS, and PVD I'd say the odds of them adding MHT are basically 0. Spirit is probably the best hope

What would F9 or NK do for the yields in Manchester? All we would probably get is cheap fares to Florida witch is great but how’d the current airlines react? Same with B6 all we’d get is FLL and MCO probably not much money to be made in that market now if we’d get a few JFK flights that be nice. With that said I’d love to see JetBlue here in Manchester. AA has been pretty nice to Manchester in 2018 CLT was at 4 times daily last summer E190s to philly then A319s almost at the same time DL pulled the ATL flight some sure if they go together. Hopefully the ORD flights do well and we can get some mainline equipment on that route maybe RON an A319 and RJs on the other flights. Wishful thinking anyways.

Some BDL observations:

It appears WN is no longer flying BDL-LAS. It used to be seasonal, but is not bookable over the summer months. Also so far UA has not loaded its traditional summer BDL-SFO. While it's only two flights, the loss of two major West Coast destinations is a blow.

In regards to F9, the RDU flight leaves BDL at 1:05PM. It returns to BDL, landing around 5:40PM. Does anyone know where the aircraft is coming from and where it's going after BDL? Specifically I was looking on May 9th. The flight to DEN operates DEN-BDL-DEN. The MCO flight also operates MCO-BDL-MCO. Is there a possibility F9 will be adding a city XXX-BDL-RDU-BDL-XXX?

AA in May is upgauging flights from HVN to both PHL and CLT. HVN-PHL flights will be 1 CRJ-200, 1 CRJ-700 and 1 E-175. HVN-CLT flight will be a CRJ-700. Loads have been very strong and I expect the CLT flight to go daily soon. I see a pattern developing similar to HHH in that AA service to HHH attracted both UA and DL.It would be a good thing for area travelers having more service to HVN and reduce road travel time, distance and dependence on BDL.

Quick PVD update from this weekend. UA goes 3x daily PVD-ORD in April and AA goes 3x daily in May.

Over in the BOS thread, i did some work on the BOS routes, but given the Massport connection, I also pulled ORH for the Oct 18 T-100's

file is here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1eJs9_ ... uEEOwapoBd

Report - How it works.

Due to the large number of combinations of airlines/routes, i've tried to narrow down things a little to break it up a bit. So here goes...

Data shown:
Flights, Seats, Pax, Avg Seats per Flight % Seats % Pax and Load %
(note for % Seats and % Pax), the calculation is within its block

Example:
BOS-AUS, there are 3 carriers on the route, B6, DL and WN, so for their % Seats counts, it's 32.69% for B6, 34.21% for DL, 33.10% for WN, which adds up to 100% of the seats on the route.
As AUS is the only route in the Texas category, the BOS-AUS total is 100% of seats in that category, if you look at Houston (HOU and IAH), then 73% of seats go to IAH and 27% to HOU), Texas is then part of the bigger category of the Southwest, so you are up against Dallas and Houston, so it's 15% of the seats to the overall region. It will make more sense as you read it.

Texas BOS-AUS B6 31 4,662 4,253 150 32.69% 33.12%
DL 31 4,879 4,190 157 34.21% 32.63%
WN 31 4,721 4,398 152 33.10% 34.25%

BOS-AUS Total 93 14,262 12,841 153 100.00% 100.00%
Texas Total 93 14,262 12,841 153 15.16% 15.35%
Grand Total 582 94,053 83,678 162 100.00% 100.00%


Tab 3 shows the ORH data Information standalone

Here's the analysis....

ORH-FLL (B6)
Overall it's held up ok during the year, 46,614 pax recorded on 57,500 seats for a Load of 81.07%. Stats are skewed to Inbound by about 5.6% and 1,600 pax (83.85% vs 78.28%), best month - March with an overall of 88.16%, worst was September with 67%

ORH-JFK (B6)
Given that B6 have really set this up as a frame utilization route with the RON at ORH, we have no way of knowing what the true expectations of the route are, well the numbers are in and while it's not awesome, October just provided the best month so far. 14,674 pax on 34,000 seats for 43.16% YTD since the route began, October managed 49.19% with 3,050 pax on 6,200 seats, Heavy slant to Outbound as you might expect with an over 9% skew and over 8,000 pax leaving ORH. back to October and both directions had their best months. 55.58% Outbound and 42.81% inbound , worst month was August was a paltry 37% average, it's going to take a few more positive numbers to see if this is going in the right directions as Oct could be a one-off, but there might just be life in this one, might..

ORH-MCO (B6)
Overall it's held up ok during the year like FLL, 46,001 pax recorded on 57,940 seats for a Load of 79.39%. Inbound and Outbound are actually somewhat evenly matched suggesting mostly O&D on this one, 1% skew to Inbound (79.91 vs 78,87), and loads over the year a little more consistent than FLL despite the slightly lower number of pax, best month - July with an overall of 85.10%, worst was September with 71.26%

ORH-PHL (B6)
The new kid on the block, we only have 1 month of data available, running the 50 seaters, AA managed a respectable 62.51% overall and 67.20% outbound number in the first month for a total 3,157 pax on 5,050 seats recorded.

Overall
Last year the 2 B6 routes (MCO and FLL), by end of Oct had brought in 88,777 pax total, the equivalent for 2018 brought in 92,615, so about a 4.3% increase over last year, some of which would have definitely been an impact from the hurricanes.
In total for 2018, I am recording (without diverts, rectrix etc), 110,446 on the 4 routes, which is a 24.4% increase, when you add in the 3,157 from PHL and 14,674 from JFK.. based on rough calc averages , my guess is ORH will end up with around 135-140K pax by the end of the year, for 2019, bit of a wild card, because later in the year DTW gets thrown in the mix too, but a conservative guess right now puts this year at 185k. how close we will get, who knows...

321LR coming to BDL from 7/1, exciting news, sees the end of 752 service, looks like 184 seats vs 177 previously so a slight uplift

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... july-2019/

AA has started using A319's and A320's between PWM-PHL . Right now it's 5x daily with 2 of those frequencies using mainline equipment. So PWM is seeing 4-5 mainline AA flights per day during the winter. Not bad at all.

airlineworker wrote:

AA in May is upgauging flights from HVN to both PHL and CLT. HVN-PHL flights will be 1 CRJ-200, 1 CRJ-700 and 1 E-175. HVN-CLT flight will be a CRJ-700. Loads have been very strong and I expect the CLT flight to go daily soon. I see a pattern developing similar to HHH in that AA service to HHH attracted both UA and DL.It would be a good thing for area travelers having more service to HVN and reduce road travel time, distance and dependence on BDL.

I checked a few random days in June and July and it appears the service returns to CRJs those months. Maybe the online timetable hasn't been updated for the summer yet. Seems strange to go from those upgauges in May back down to CRJs over the summer.

I am still really perplexed as to how the CLT-HVN leg can be performing well. It has virtually no feed outside of a few redeyes inbound to CLT.

AA’s schedule after 6/6/19 is a placeholder.

cheapgreek wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.

GON had low loads when the Usairways 19 seat B-1900,s flew to PHL, an A-220 would be too large. So far the HVN-CLT flights are doing very well and have used the CRJ-700 for the first two Saturdays. The federal appeal case regarding the paving of the runway overruns has been heard and it seems HVN will win this time, in fact the states attorney,s testimony favored HVN instead of discrediting it. https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/ Allegiant airlines has said with the runway overruns paved, it would start Florida service. Hoping for DL to start HVN-DTW service and UA HVN-IAD service. It appears the CRJ-700 is the best RJ for HVN's present runway and will not take weight restrictions as the CRJ-200's do.

Groton’s loads dropped once Southwest entered Providence and Hartford and the fares and seat numbers they offered made service aboard the smaller turboprop uneconomical. Before that happened, GON had Airline service dating back decades...(Pilgrim, Air New England, Allegheny etc). Military and local traffic sustained it. Today the Eastern Connecticut shoreline has two large casinos, military traffic, beaches, and easy access to the islands...much more potential local traffic than 20 years ago. Provided an airline can operate flights with competitive aircraft to a viable hub (connections as well as local traffic), and promote the route properly, passengers will come. JetBlue to D.C. or even Delta to Atlanta is a safe bet.

UA 949, a 772 flying LHR-SFO, diverted to BGR today. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL ... /EGLL/KBGR

CairnterriAIR wrote:

cheapgreek wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

UA’s SFO and NK’s MYR going year round I can see happening. I can also see Alaska going to SEA if anything for the aerospace traffic. I don’t see Sun Country coming in but eventually B6 will start service to JAX once the 220’s arrive. Upgrades in aircraft....more A321’s for B6 out of BDL. Possibly Delta too. I can see HVN’s service to CLT going daily. Here’s a wildcard for you....Groton-New London eventually gets service to D.C. Jetblue’s A220 could make it off the runway both there and in HVN.

GON had low loads when the Usairways 19 seat B-1900,s flew to PHL, an A-220 would be too large. So far the HVN-CLT flights are doing very well and have used the CRJ-700 for the first two Saturdays. The federal appeal case regarding the paving of the runway overruns has been heard and it seems HVN will win this time, in fact the states attorney,s testimony favored HVN instead of discrediting it. https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/ Allegiant airlines has said with the runway overruns paved, it would start Florida service. Hoping for DL to start HVN-DTW service and UA HVN-IAD service. It appears the CRJ-700 is the best RJ for HVN's present runway and will not take weight restrictions as the CRJ-200's do.

Groton’s loads dropped once Southwest entered Providence and Hartford and the fares and seat numbers they offered made service aboard the smaller turboprop uneconomical. Before that happened, GON had Airline service dating back decades...(Pilgrim, Air New England, Allegheny etc). Military and local traffic sustained it. Today the Eastern Connecticut shoreline has two large casinos, military traffic, beaches, and easy access to the islands...much more potential local traffic than 20 years ago. Provided an airline can operate flights with competitive aircraft to a viable hub (connections as well as local traffic), and promote the route properly, passengers will come. JetBlue to D.C. or even Delta to Atlanta is a safe bet.

Is GON actively seeking scheduled air service? It has not had any in 15+ years. Given that length of time I'm skeptical as to service returning without some sort of concerted effort on the part of the airport/city/state.

HVNandrew wrote:

airlineworker wrote:

AA in May is upgauging flights from HVN to both PHL and CLT. HVN-PHL flights will be 1 CRJ-200, 1 CRJ-700 and 1 E-175. HVN-CLT flight will be a CRJ-700. Loads have been very strong and I expect the CLT flight to go daily soon. I see a pattern developing similar to HHH in that AA service to HHH attracted both UA and DL.It would be a good thing for area travelers having more service to HVN and reduce road travel time, distance and dependence on BDL.

I checked a few random days in June and July and it appears the service returns to CRJs those months. Maybe the online timetable hasn't been updated for the summer yet. Seems strange to go from those upgauges in May back down to CRJs over the summer.

I am still really perplexed as to how the CLT-HVN leg can be performing well. It has virtually no feed outside of a few redeyes inbound to CLT.

I checked on connecting flights and there were quite a few including many from Florida. Hopefully UA and DL will take notice that the CRJ-700 and E170, E175's can work off the present runway. The federal appeal case should be decided this month and then the runway will no longer be a problem. DL to DTW and UA to IAD for starters.