F9LASDEN
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 3:56 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:06 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Does frontier book on other airlines or just refund on a cancellation?

They are not getting you to the destination on the day you confirmed and it's not weather or atc related cancellation? I thought they were obligated to accommodate you in this case doesn't matter it it's ULCC or not. They don't have to book you on another airline but I thought they have to pay for your hotel/food until they can get you out there? I wonder if frontier did put people on united since they used larger planes than usual?


I’m not 100% confident, but I’m pretty sure F9 does do rebooking on other airlines as well as providing food/accommodations in the interim.

When F9 had the engine cowling come loose on a LAS-TPA flight back in November 2018, all passengers on that flight were booked on other airlines and all got to TPA on the same day (the F9 flight was supposed to arrive around 3pm that day, and the last of the passengers from that flight got to TPA just before midnight), as well as were provided with meal vouchers while they waited to be rebooked/waited for their new flight.

I also recall a DFW-DEN flight right around Christmas last year where the aircraft had a pressurization issue, so the flight turned back to DFW and was subsequently cancelled. In that instance, the last of the passengers scheduled on that flight got to DEN about 5 hours after their original scheduled arrival time

I’ve also seen examples where F9 schedules an extra segment for either later that day or the following day to accommodate cancelled pax without rebooking them on other airlines or simply having them wait for the next regularly scheduled F9 flight, which might be several days away. The pattern I’ve seen is that they assign these bonus flights 4-digit flight numbers that start with 7 (like 7123). While poking around on FR24 sometime last week, I noticed an F9 PHL-DFW operating mid morning on an A321, which I thought was odd because that flight typically leaves PHL at 8pm-ish on an A320. Further exploration revealed that the previous night’s PHL-DFW flight had been cancelled, and this flight was operating with a 4 digit flight number beginning with 7, which led me to realize that this flight had probably been added to accommodate the previous night’s cancelled passengers.

Example in terms of food/accommodations while waiting for another F9 flight: just last week on a DEN-LAS flight I was on, the people seated next to me had been booked on the previous night’s COS-LAS, which was cancelled due to aircraft maintenance. F9 rebooked them and several other passengers from that flight on to my DEN-LAS flight the next morning, and had provided transportation to DEN, accommodations near DEN that night, and dinner vouchers for that night and breakfast vouchers for the following morning.
Spirit of the West...A Whole Different Animal...Low Fares Done Right
 
Blueknows
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Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:11 am

Ok please please don’t feed fake policy for airlines. F9/B6 are two carriers they don’t rebook on other airlines. It’s not a requirement for an airline to rebook you on another airline when they cxl flights. You need to research you individual carrier. Also your are not guaranteed hotel, etc if issues are do to weather. It’s always up to the customer to check with airlines. AA can rebook you on UA. DL can put you on UA/AA. As always make sure you check type of ticket you buy. New England is always having these issue so be smart
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:53 am

btvhopper wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I was in BTV yesterday. Frontier had cancelled the Denver flight that day. How do they deal with that? Will they rebook on united or other carriers or do you have to wait for days? Doubt there was room to rebook an entire plane on the next flight.


I think that’s just the downside of depending on ULCC’s. Easy to save a couple hundred bucks, but if they cancel you just get your refund, maybe a complimentary $100 voucher and a “good luck.”


It has nothing to do with being a ULCC or not. They all have the same policy.
The advantage that legacy carriers have is that they typically have multiple departures so they can accommodate passengers on a later flight, on a different itinerary if necessary. But during busy vacation periods you might be waiting for a few days to get on a plane.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:09 pm

In Manchester I heard of WN putting pax on AA flights after cancellations not sure if it was weather or mechanical.
 
Blueknows
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:39 pm

Your wrong they don't all have the same policy. I do this stuff everyday, do not tell
People false information. Check your airline and type of ticket you bought. Also there are exceptions to every rule. Sometime airline
might go above and beyond for Customers even though policy dictates otherwise
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:40 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Ok please please don’t feed fake policy for airlines. F9/B6 are two carriers they don’t rebook on other airlines. It’s not a requirement for an airline to rebook you on another airline when they cxl flights. You need to research you individual carrier. Also your are not guaranteed hotel, etc if issues are do to weather. It’s always up to the customer to check with airlines. AA can rebook you on UA. DL can put you on UA/AA. As always make sure you check type of ticket you buy. New England is always having these issue so be smart


Who/what are you talking about here?

If the cancellation is NOT due to weather or ATC (which frontiers was not) all airlines have to get you to your final destination the same day as per the contract of carriage. Airlines don't get to pick their policies on that IIRC. I believe they have to compensate you until you get to your destination ie food and hotel if its NOT weather related. It's cheaper for them to purchase tickets on other airlines so quite often airlines will even whos policy is not to do that. Again if its NOT weather or ATC related they have to get you to the destination and they can't just offer you a refund and say its your problem.
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:57 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
If the cancellation is NOT due to weather or ATC (which frontiers was not) all airlines have to get you to your final destination the same day as per the contract of carriage. Airlines don't get to pick their policies on that IIRC. I believe they have to compensate you until you get to your destination ie food and hotel if its NOT weather related. It's cheaper for them to purchase tickets on other airlines so quite often airlines will even whos policy is not to do that. Again if its NOT weather or ATC related they have to get you to the destination and they can't just offer you a refund and say its your problem.


This is patently false. Airlines are NOT required to rebook a passenger on another airline the same day if they cancel a flight. They only have to provide a full refund per FAA and consumer protection regulations. That’s all you get with from federal aviation policy.

Obviously, most airline’s policies got above and beyond this to better serve their customers. I’m not sure F9 does though.
https://www.transportation.gov/individu ... cellations
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:01 pm

If you read what i said i didnt say they have to rebook you on another airline, i though if it's not weather related they have to compensate you for accomodation until they can fly you there though. Airlines can choose to rebook you on another airline as its better for new stories, and can be cheaper even if its against their SOP.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I am partially based in BDL for a few months due to work, here are a few observations/questions I have:
1. What happened to the BDL-SFO flight? I could have sworn UA offered that route, was trying to fly it in a couple weeks but instead I have to connect in MSP & CLT
2. A bit surprised to see that there isn't any BDL-SEA service, you would think the PDEW and UTC-Boeing connection would have got some carrier interested
3. 1x daily to DFW? I'm guessing that is MAX related, but even 2x seems small
4. Central US + West Coast traffic seems lacking, but West coast is well served

I am guessing a lot of this boils down to catchment area, given BDL has sizable corporate traffic, since BDL is surrounded on all sides by ORH, HVN, PVD, BOS, HPN, e.t.c


1. BDL-SFO was seasonal and UA decided not to bring it back this year, loads seemed healthy but I have no idea on yields.
2. SEA is on the wish list for the CAA (Connecticut Airport Authority). I would think DL or AS could make it work seasonally or less than daily.
3. The MAX cuts did hit BDL-DFW. It has been 2x daily for quite a few years. With the MAX issues it is at least 1x daily with some days 2x. Back in the early 2000's this route used to be 4x daily MD80's.
4. LAX on AA has been sticking around for a few years after being added and dropped by DL and AA in the past. I think there is enough traffic year round to warrant a flight to LAX on AA, DL or possibly a carrier like B6 or NK if AA ever leaves. LAS and PHX are big holes from BDL as well as SFO/SEA.

Enjoy your time in CT. Make sure to visit New Haven for great pizza if you haven't as well as a Yard Goats game in Hartford. CT shore as some great seafood as well as the Casino's.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:59 pm

Just noticed this week BDL-DTW on Delta is 3x 717, 1x 319, 1x 320. I don't remember Delta ever having 5x daily on this route, at least in a while if ever. Next week it goes down to 3x daily around the 4th but then goes back to 5x daily the following week.

Does anyone know how many banks DL has at MSP and DTW?
 
Blueknows
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:34 pm

Airlines are required to get you to
You destination on next available flight. That might be the next day. They are not required by law to put you on another airline. That is just false information. Americans are the only people who think airlines owe them. Planes are buses of the skies. Travel More often and be more educated about policies
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:47 pm

uconn99 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I am partially based in BDL for a few months due to work, here are a few observations/questions I have:
1. What happened to the BDL-SFO flight? I could have sworn UA offered that route, was trying to fly it in a couple weeks but instead I have to connect in MSP & CLT
2. A bit surprised to see that there isn't any BDL-SEA service, you would think the PDEW and UTC-Boeing connection would have got some carrier interested
3. 1x daily to DFW? I'm guessing that is MAX related, but even 2x seems small
4. Central US + West Coast traffic seems lacking, but East coast is well served

I am guessing a lot of this boils down to catchment area, given BDL has sizable corporate traffic, since BDL is surrounded on all sides by ORH, HVN, PVD, BOS, HPN, e.t.c


1. BDL-SFO was seasonal and UA decided not to bring it back this year, loads seemed healthy but I have no idea on yields.
2. SEA is on the wish list for the CAA (Connecticut Airport Authority). I would think DL or AS could make it work seasonally or less than daily.
3. The MAX cuts did hit BDL-DFW. It has been 2x daily for quite a few years. With the MAX issues it is at least 1x daily with some days 2x. Back in the early 2000's this route used to be 4x daily MD80's.
4. LAX on AA has been sticking around for a few years after being added and dropped by DL and AA in the past. I think there is enough traffic year round to warrant a flight to LAX on AA, DL or possibly a carrier like B6 or NK if AA ever leaves. LAS and PHX are big holes from BDL as well as SFO/SEA.

Enjoy your time in CT. Make sure to visit New Haven for great pizza if you haven't as well as a Yard Goats game in Hartford. CT shore as some great seafood as well as the Casino's.


Thanks for the explanations, and the tips for CT. Drove over to Martha's Vineyard/Cape Cod last weekend, so I'll go check out the CT shore next
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:52 pm

[quote="Blueknows"]Airlines are required to get you to
They are not required by law to put you on another airline. /quote]

Lol no one said they were!! English must not be your first language?? Read what I wrote
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:45 am

Blueknows wrote:
Your wrong they don't all have the same policy. I do this stuff everyday, do not tell
People false information. Check your airline and type of ticket you bought. Also there are exceptions to every rule. Sometime airline
might go above and beyond for Customers even though policy dictates otherwise

You're contradicting yourself. You're essentially saying it's up to the discretion of the customer service rep which is true for every airline. No airline that I know in the U.S. has a guarantee that they will get you to your destination in x amount of time which to me basically means they are all the same.
Blueknows wrote:
Airlines are required to get you to
You destination on next available flight. That might be the next day. They are not required by law to put you on another airline. That is just false information. Americans are the only people who think airlines owe them. Planes are buses of the skies. Travel More often and be more educated about policies

Owe me what? When i buy something, anything I expect to get exactly what I buy. Why would airlines be any different?
Can you imagine a person going to a restaurant, ordering a steak and getting a tofu casserole and being required to pay for it?
By the way this is only a problem in America. Every other country has laws protecting fliers but i'm sure you'll find an exception :)
 
teneriffe77
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:59 pm

Stop arguing and get back on topic. I'm surprised BTV hasn't closed their crosswind runway as it seems to restrict the growth of the terminal and seems too short for regular jetliner ops
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:03 am

teneriffe77 wrote:
Stop arguing and get back on topic. I'm surprised BTV hasn't closed their crosswind runway as it seems to restrict the growth of the terminal and seems too short for regular jetliner ops


The terminal is pretty much parallel to 1-19 so I don't think the runway should be much of an obstacle to expansion. I think the long term plan calls for expanding the South concourse to the south with the runway still in place. Any restriction on growth at this point is probably financial.
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:46 am

teneriffe77 wrote:
I'm surprised BTV hasn't closed their crosswind runway as it seems to restrict the growth of the terminal and seems too short for regular jetliner ops

It’s pretty much a certainty there haven’t been any jetliner ops off 1/19, but back in the day it was not unusual to see Ransome Airlines fly their Dash-7 turboprop off it (the Dash-7 was an incredible STOL airplane). Also, I suspect that Air North flew their DHC-6 Twin Otter (another great STOL plane) off it occasionally, too (but that was a little before my time).
 
paysonmt77
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:42 pm

May total Enplanements and Deplanements numbers are out for PWM
175,413 May 2019
170,097 May 2018
157,801 May 2017
Total Jan-May 742,342 2019 vs 671,602 2018 70,740 more passengers over 2018
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:39 pm

Thats good news for PWM. May was the one month where the passenger count was actually expected to be less than last years due to the lack of JetBlue service until June. Looks like the Jetport is on track for a modest gain (4-6%) over CY1018's record numbers. The renovated baggage claim approach area has finally been completed along with new restrooms and is a nice improvement for arriving passengers.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:47 pm

airbazar wrote:
Owe me what? When i buy something, anything I expect to get exactly what I buy. Why would airlines be any different?


Why? Because contracts of carriage state that schedules aren't part of the purchased transportation, and the U.S. government allows them to get away with it with only a refund as their obligation. (Show us the EU reg that requires operation to schedule, please. Or the regs of any other major market.)

Some carriers interline, generally at their own discretion. Some do not. (Frontier does not.) I'm not sure if you're being obdurate or are grossly uninformed about U.S. carrier policies and practices.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:02 pm

Please keep the discussion on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
MO11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:53 am

At BDL, Aer Lingus switches to A321 on August 2.
 
phllax
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:46 am

Today was the first day United offered mainline EWR-BGR operations on 1 daily flight.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:39 am

BDL - Bradley Round-up for April 2019 (latest info available)

Data goes back to 2015 to give a 5 year view (15,16,17,18,19)

Link to File: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE


Month
Total Pax 612,053 5.6% up over 2018, (outbound 302,915 up 5.1%, inbound 309,138 up 6.1%)
2015 vs 2019 up 16.2% from 526,638 to 612,053

Up

NK 47.5% to 54,837 (17,667 increase) – 2015 N/A
AC 20.7% to 4,907 (841 increase) – 2015 – 3,396 – 44.5% up
B6 20.7% to 89,694 (15,395 increase) – 2015 – 77,047 – 16.4% up
EI 8.7% to 7,954 (637 increase) – 2015 N/A
UA 8.6% to 64,876 (5,114 increase) – 2015 – 45,904 – 41.3% up
DL 4.5% to 112,709 (4,874 increase) – 2015 111,759 – 0.9% up
F9 (new operator) – (4,337 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

AA 5.5% to 129,826 (7,522 decrease) – 131,856 in 2015 – 1.5% down
WN 6.1% to 141,138 (9,245 decrease) – 155,345 in 2015 – 9.1% down

Market Share
moving around due to new entrants,
#1 - WN 23.1% down 2.9% and 6.4% down from 2015
#2 – AA 21.2% down 2.5% and 3.8% down from 2015
#3 – DL 18.4% down 0.2% and 2.8% down from 2015
#4 – B6 14.7% up 1.8% and flat from 2015
#5 – UA 10.6% up 0.3% and 1.9% up from 2015
#6 – NK 9% up 2.6% and n/a from 2015
#7 – International (EI and AC combined for 2.4% share.
#8 – F9 0.7%, but they just got started.

No QTD as it’s only April, therefore = month info.

YTD

Total Pax 2,135,848 3.6% up over 2019, (outbound 1,069,049 up 3,8%, inbound 1,066,799 up 3.4%)
2015 vs 2019 up 14.1% from 1,871,980 to 2,135,848


Up

B6 20.1% to 338,792 (56,627 increase) – 2015 – 298,038 – 13.7% up
NK 17.5% to 188,063 (28,027 increase) – 2015 N/A
EI 7.8% to 17,971 (1,295 increase) – 2015 N/A
DL 4.0% to 380,017 (14,662 increase) – 2015 391,015 – 2.8% down
UA 1.9% to 204,217 (3,750 increase) – 2015 – 151,442 – 34.8% up
AC 0.6% to 14,914 (85 increase) – 2015 – 11,772 – 26.7% up
F9 (new operator) – (4,957 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

WN 5.1% to 475,465 (25,385 decrease) – 548,465 in 2015 – 13.3% down
AA 1.3% to 505.130 (6,631 decrease) – 465,922 in 2015 – 8.4% up
D8 - closed market 3,695 down.

Market Share
moving around due to new entrants, WN/AA enjoy top billing despite their continued reductions
#1 – AA 23.7% down 1.1% and 1.2% down from 2015
#2 – WN 22.3% down 2% and 7% down from 2015
#3 – DL 17.8% up 0.1% and 3.1% down from 2015
#4 – B6 15.9% up 2.2% and 0.1% down from 2015
#5 – UA 9.6% down 0.2% but 1.5% up from 2015
#6 – NK 8.8% up 1% and n/a from 2015
#7 – International (EI and AC combined for 1.8% share.
#8 – F9 0.2%, but they just got started.


Market Share Comments:
AA continues to hold #1 spot and with the rate of decline of WN and nobody else closing big time WN is #2, and continuing to reverse, still 95K ahead of DL, it’s going to take some movement to drop them to #3, but 25K over 4 months, means 75-80K over a year, Delta have grown 15K, so call that 60K for the year and things are going to get much closer going into 2020. DL #3 having increased 15K are not in immediate danger of being passed by B6, but the latter have grown over 50K YOY and are the biggest market share movers, by the end of the year, at this rate B6 could topple DL..
UA have to be looking over their shoulders at NK, who are only 16K short of UA’s number and have increased 25K above the rate of increase of UA this year, this is quite feasible, however UA’s summer season usually brings in big pax count, if it doesn’t happen NK could quite easily take their place.

Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of April is 6,741,979 pax which is 3.5% up on this time last year (225K up),

Up

NK 47.5% to 499,304 (160,905 increase) – 2015 N/A
UA 10.1% to 767,979 (70,576 increase) – 2015 – 499,334 – 53.8% up
B6 7.3% to 904,526 (61,462 increase) – 2015 – 761,933 – 18.7% up
EI 4.5% to 84,173 (3,609 increase) – 2015 N/A
AC 3.5% to 60,793 (2,033 increase) – 2015 – 44,883 – 35.4% up
DL 0.8% to 1,277,223 (10,459 increase) – 2015 1,265,646 – 0.9% up
F9 (new operator) – (4,957 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

WN 2.7% to 1,525,068 (41,891 decrease) – 1,720,262 in 2015 – 11.3% down
AA 1.3% to 1,601,303 (25,359 decrease) – 1,603,496 in 2015 – 0.1% down
D8 - closed market 22,810 down.

Market Share
moving around due to new entrants, WN/AA enjoy top billing despite their continued reductions
#1 – AA 23.8% down 1.2% and 3.4% down from 2015
#2 – WN 22.6% down 1.4% and 6.5% down from 2015
#3 – DL 18.9% down 0.5% and 2.5% down from 2015
#4 – B6 13.4% up 0.5% and 0.5% up from 2015
#5 – UA 11.4% up 0.7% and 2.9% up from 2015
#6 – NK 7.4% up 2.2% and n/a from 2015
#7 – International (EI and AC combined for 2.3% share.
#8 – F9 0.1%, but they just got started.


Market Share Comments:
Pretty much the same as the YTD ones to be honest, biggest mover was NK that took an additional 2.2% share, which borrowed from AA (1.2%) and WN (1.4%), B6 and Delta flipflopped with 0.5% + for B6 and the exact opposite for DL

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2019

I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrase rate for May to December, the wild card is F9 as I have not had a chance to study their actual flight bank to see what they might be able to achieve. So I have estimated them on a complete flyer below.

AA – 1,584,214 (down 1.5% over 2018)
WN – 1,497,008 (kiss goodbye to the 1.5m+ club, down 3.4% over 2018)
DL – 1,297,771 (up 1.9% over 2018 – includes international)
B6 – 945,770 (up 11.5% over 2018)
UA – 825,031 (up 8% over 2018 due to strong back half growth in 2018, compounded in 19)
NK- 647,296 (up 37.3% over 2018)
F9 – Estimated at 31,957 (more will come clear once the summer flying kicks in)
AC – 62,380 (up 2.8% over 2018)
EI – 87,139 (up 5.1% over 2018 – and may increase further if folks like the new 321 service with 184 seats over the existing 175 in the 757.)

Approx guess: 6,978,565, again this is a GUESS! As of April many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun, please do not flame me for not covering every permutation of aircraft and seat counts and socio-ecomic issue that could lead to that number changing, maybe after December’s numbers are out, I will go find this and see how close I was.

As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:59 pm

As always, thanks for the in depth breakdown of BDL's numbers. Outside of F9 adding some routes in 2019, it's been pretty slow for new route announcements from BDL this year. B6 will be ending BDL-DCA flight so that will hurt their numbers a bit if they don't add any capacity. And the MAX issues have hurt BDL a bit with LAX and DFW both seeing cuts in frequency. Still hoping another route or two is added before the end of the year.

Will you be releasing a PVD breakdown once they release April numbers? BDL is usually 2 months behind but seems like PVD is really slow at updating numbers this year.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:26 pm

uconn99 wrote:
As always, thanks for the in depth breakdown of BDL's numbers. Outside of F9 adding some routes in 2019, it's been pretty slow for new route announcements from BDL this year. B6 will be ending BDL-DCA flight so that will hurt their numbers a bit if they don't add any capacity. And the MAX issues have hurt BDL a bit with LAX and DFW both seeing cuts in frequency. Still hoping another route or two is added before the end of the year.

Will you be releasing a PVD breakdown once they release April numbers? BDL is usually 2 months behind but seems like PVD is really slow at updating numbers this year.

Yep, April’s are there I think so I will be doing that, have to catch up as apparently I failed miserably to do December’s so ha e to do that first before rolling over to the new year
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:44 pm

VS4ever wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
As always, thanks for the in depth breakdown of BDL's numbers. Outside of F9 adding some routes in 2019, it's been pretty slow for new route announcements from BDL this year. B6 will be ending BDL-DCA flight so that will hurt their numbers a bit if they don't add any capacity. And the MAX issues have hurt BDL a bit with LAX and DFW both seeing cuts in frequency. Still hoping another route or two is added before the end of the year.

Will you be releasing a PVD breakdown once they release April numbers? BDL is usually 2 months behind but seems like PVD is really slow at updating numbers this year.

Yep, April’s are there I think so I will be doing that, have to catch up as apparently I failed miserably to do December’s so ha e to do that first before rolling over to the new year


I just noticed PVD released their April numbers which were down 14% over 2018. Looks like WN served more passengers at BDL in April 2019, not sure I remember the last time BDL had a stronger month than PVD on WN, it hasn't happened much over the past 20 years.

PVD Total Passengers April 2019-

WN - 132,692
AA - 80,639
DL - 38,711
B6 - 30,205
UA - 23,757
F9 - 16,908
DY - 6,647
SY - 4,222
G4 - 3,003
Charters - 472

Total- 337,256 (14.15%)

https://www.pvdairport.com/documents/pa ... senger.pdf
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:25 pm

I’m amazed at how WN seems to be sliding around most of New England, losing market share to competitors. Maybe they don’t care if they hit their yield targets but the competition is getting stronger and the likes of Frontier are the new price leaders. Seems like the $39 deals WN arrived with can now only be found at BOS. Advance purchase fares to BWI can easily exceed $200. While not horrible, it’s not exactly a good deal for an hour long flight.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:25 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
I’m amazed at how WN seems to be sliding around most of New England, losing market share to competitors. Maybe they don’t care if they hit their yield targets but the competition is getting stronger and the likes of Frontier are the new price leaders. Seems like the $39 deals WN arrived with can now only be found at BOS. Advance purchase fares to BWI can easily exceed $200. While not horrible, it’s not exactly a good deal for an hour long flight.



Not sure what is going on but WN has dropped FLL seasonally from BDL, I assume because of runway work there? Below is this week's schedule on WN from BDL and PVD.

BDL - Departurers (Week of 7/7/2019)-

BWI- 35 (1x 738, 34x 737)
MCO- 20 (1x 738, 19x 737)
MDW- 20 (all 737)
TPA- 14 (2x 738, 12x 737)
DEN- 7 (1x 738, 6x 737)
STL- 7 (all 737)

Total Departures- 103 (14.7 average departures per day)
Total Seats- 14,889


PVD - Departures (Week of 7/7/2019)-

BWI- 48 (all 737)
MCO- 27 (2x 738, 25x 737)
MDW- 19 (all 737)
DCA- 14 (all 737)
TPA- 13 (2x 738, 11x 737)
FLL- 2 (all 737)

Total Departures- 123 (17.5 average departures per day)
Total Seats- 17,717
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:21 am

Here's the PVD data and analysis.

PVD - Providence Round-up for April 2019

Data goes back to 2015 to give a 5 year view (15,16,17,18,19)

Link to File: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V10vY ... 8tUN1vCxs4


Month
Total Pax 337,256 14.2% down over 2018, (outbound 166,029 down 14.6%, inbound 171,227 down 13.7%%)
2015 vs 2019 up 9.6% from 307,668 to 337,256

Up

B6 36% to 30,205 (7,993 increase) – 2015 – 24,616 – 22.7% up
DL 17.9% to 38,711 (5,873 increase) – 2015 36,801 – 5.2% up
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

G4 61.1% to 3,003 (4,725 decrease) – 2015 N/A
D8 60.6% to 6,647 (10,210 decrease) – 2015 N/A
F9 53.4% to 16,908 (19,391 decrease) – 2015 N/A
WN 20.7% to 132,692 (34,719 decrease) – 150,193, in 2015 – 11.7% down
AA 5.6% to 80,639 (4,741 decrease) – 71,169 in 2015 – 13.3% up
UA 0.5% to 23,757 (121 decrease) – 2015 – 23,631 – 0.5% up


Market Share

#1 - WN 39.3% down 3.3% and 9.5% down from 2015
#2 – AA 23.9% up 2.2% and 0.8% up from 2015
#3 – DL 11.5% up 3.1% and 0.5% down from 2015
#4 – B6 9% up 3.3% and 1% from 2015
#5 – UA 7% up 1% and 0.6% down from 2015
#6 – F9 5% down 4.2% and n/a from 2015
#7 – D8 2% down 2.3% and n/a from 2015
#8 – SY 1.3% (new entrant)
#9 – G4 0.9% down 1.1% and n/a from 2015



Market Share Comments:
Numbers are all over the place, with an overall reduction of 14.2%, many airlines suffered on pax counts and market shares as a result. Winner was B6 who not only increased pax count by 36%, they also increased their share by 3.3% to jump from 6th to 4th, other biggest winner was DL, with a 17.9% pax increase and a 3.1% share to move from 4th to 3rd. AA cemented their #2 spot with a 2.2% increase despite their pax count reduction.
Losers, F9 and WN, who dropped 4.2% and 3.3% respectively, with WN being the harsher of the two as that equated to nearly 35K pax less than the prior year.

No QTD as it’s only April, therefore = month info.

YTD

Total Pax 1,212,968 8.7% (115,637 decrease) over 2018, (outbound 607,560 down 8.5%, inbound 605,408 down 8.9%)
2015 vs 2019 up 12.7% from 1,076,246 to 1,212,968

Up

B6 29.6% to 110,132 (25,153 increase) – 2015 – 95,272 – 15.6% up
DL 15.9% to 140,150 (19,219 increase) – 2015 120,736 – 16.1% up
UA 7.6% to 78,881 (5,596 increase) – 2015 – 72,084 – 9.4% up
AA 2.3% to 304,096 (6,969 increase) – 259,131 in 2015 – 17.4% up
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

D8 61.4% to 20,373 (32,358 decrease) – 2015 N/A
G4 55.5% to 11,761 (14,678 decrease) – 2015 N/A
F9 46.1% to 69,769 (59,588 decrease) – 2015 N/A
WN 13.2% to 469,171 (71,210 decrease) – 523,042, in 2015 – 10.3% down


Market Share

#1 - WN 38.7% down 2% and 9.9% down from 2015
#2 – AA 25.1% up 2.7% and 1% up from 2015
#3 – DL 11.6% up 2.5% and 0.3% up from 2015
#4 – B6 9.1% up 2.7% and 0.2% from 2015
#5 – UA 6.5% up 1% and 0.2% down from 2015
#6 – F9 5.8% down 4% and n/a from 2015
#7 – D8 1.7% down 2.3% and n/a from 2015
#8 – G4 1.0% down 1% and n/a from 2015
#9 – SY 0.3% (new entrant)



Market Share Comments:
Well, when you have an 8.7% count reversal, it’s hard to find a whole lot of positives, but the big winners in % terms were AA, B6 and DL, all over which managed 2.5% or over increases in share. AA remains 2nd, and B6/DL move up one spot respectively to 4th and 3rd in the charts. UA also managed an uplift of 1% and a move up to 5th in the standings. How did this all happen, well F9 went tumbling from 3rd to 6th with a full 4% loss after reducing their pax count by almost ½, WN is still king of the hill with 38.7% and I doubt they are going to lose their crown any time yet, but 70K pax lost for the first month of the year, is likely to equate to around 250k for the full year.. that’s a BIG number and with their restrictions due to MAX flying carrying on, I do wonder if those numbers due to fleet switching are only going to get worse for them.

Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of April is 4,182,708 pax which is 0.8% up on this time last year (33K up), however given some of the recent declines, it is quite possible this could start to turn red in May or later, be interesting to see how the summer plays out.

Up

G4 31.4% to 54,818 (13,099 increase) – 2015 N/A
F9 16.1% to 319,813 (44,381 increase) – 2015 N/A
UA 9.9% to 311,943 (28,163 increase) – 2015 – 301,270 – 3.5% up
S4 6.5% to 5,597 (342 increase) – 2015 N/A
D8 4.8% to 157,527 (7,188 increase) – 2015 N/A
DL 3.9% to 461,537 (17,443 increase) – 2015 459,458 – 0.5% up
AA 3.8% to 1,008,506 (36,517 increase) – 2015 850,738 – 18.5% up
B6 0.8% to 264,060 (2,118 increase) – 2015 – 276,161 – 4.4% down
ZX (new operator) – (10,351 increase) – 2015 N/A
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A

Down

WN 7% to 1,572,775 (117,602 decrease) – 2015 - 1,638,769 – 4% down


Market Share

#1 - WN 40.7% down 5.2% and 5.4% down from 2015
#2 – AA 23.4% down 2.1% and 0.5% down from 2015
#3 – DL 10.7% down 1.2% and 2.2% down from 2015
#4 – UA 6.8% down 1% and 1.6% from 2015
#5 – F9 6.6% up 6.6% and N/A from 2015
#6 – B6 6.3% down 1.1% and 1.5% down from 2015
#7 – International 4.1% up 3,1% and N/A from 2015
#8 – G4 1.0% up 1% and n/a from 2015
#9 – SY (new entrant)



Market Share Comments:
Right now, because of a strong back half, the rolling 12 month is still up 0.8%, if the May numbers come in as bad as the first 4 months, this trend is going to roll back, right now the market share is showing a switch from WN, AA and DL primarily to F9 and International, but as those are not going well in 19, this should adjust again in the coming months.

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2019

I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for May to December, the wild card is F9 as I have not had a chance to study their actual flight bank to see what they might be able to achieve. So I have estimated them on a complete flyer below. Major player information below.

AA – 1,034,970 (up 3.3% over 2018)
WN – 1,495,996 (kiss goodbye to the 1.5m+ club, down 9% over 2018)
DL – 474,160 (up 7.2% over 2018)
F9 –360,103 (down 5.1%, although I expect this to drop significantly given the drop in the early 19 numbers)
UA – 335,073 (up 9.4% over 2018)
B6 – 265,305 (up 11% over 2018)
G4- 68,337 (down 1.7% over 2018, though like F9 expect this to drop further during the year)
SY – 36,722 (new entrant)
D8 – 164,085 (down 13.4% over 2018 and this will actually continue to reverse until the MAX flying starts again, if it ever recovers)


Approx guess: 4,254,563, down 1%, again this is a GUESS! As of April many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, some of the big reductions seen in 2019 so far are yet to really filter through to the rolling average due to the strong back half 18 performance, if the reductions continue, this number is going to drop in a hurry. I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun, please do not flame me for not covering every permutation of aircraft and seat counts and socio-ecomic issue that could lead to that number changing, maybe after December’s numbers are out, I will go find this and see how close I was.

As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:39 am

Thank you for the PVD analysis!
 
airlineworker
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:03 pm

HVN has just won the federal appeal court case involving paving the overruns on runway 2-20. The plan is to pave 1000 feet of the southern end and 400 feet of the northern end. This should go a long way in adding new airlines and flights while reducing the dependence on BDL and area flyers will have a closeby airport to use.
https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 082103.php
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:16 pm

airlineworker wrote:
HVN has just won the federal appeal court case involving paving the overruns on runway 2-20. The plan is to pave 1000 feet of the southern end and 400 feet of the northern end. This should go a long way in adding new airlines and flights while reducing the dependence on BDL and area flyers will have a closeby airport to use.
https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 082103.php


Any growth HVN is able to secure will come entirely at the expense of BDL. The Connecticut market is not growing to accommodate growth at HVN without cannibilizing BDL. I really have trouble understanding the need for the HVN expansion...all this just to get a few more E-175’s to DCA, PHL, ORD, etc and risk cannibalizing BDL mainline? I don’t get how it’s a positive.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:26 pm

Here’s a schematic of the new walkway to connect the North and South terminals at BTV.

So it looks like the walkway will in fact go right through the 2nd floor offices, then punch a hole through the wall at one of United’s mainline gates. Is anyone familiar with the layout of BTV’s administrative offices?

https://go.boarddocs.com/vt/burlingtonv ... alkway.pdf
 
HVNwxROC
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:59 pm

btvhopper wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
HVN has just won the federal appeal court case involving paving the overruns on runway 2-20. The plan is to pave 1000 feet of the southern end and 400 feet of the northern end. This should go a long way in adding new airlines and flights while reducing the dependence on BDL and area flyers will have a closeby airport to use.
https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 082103.php


Any growth HVN is able to secure will come entirely at the expense of BDL. The Connecticut market is not growing to accommodate growth at HVN without cannibilizing BDL. I really have trouble understanding the need for the HVN expansion...all this just to get a few more E-175’s to DCA, PHL, ORD, etc and risk cannibalizing BDL mainline? I don’t get how it’s a positive.


That's nonsense that HVN service will come at the expense of BDL. A recent study suggested that there was only a 12% overlap between target markets at BDL and HVN, and that most new traffic at HVN would be drawn away from NYC area airports. It is usually at least an hour or more to drive to BDL from New Haven. A lot of past service at HVN was cut because airlines had to limit loads due to the short runway. HVN now will have a chance to better compete and provide new needed service to New Haven and other cities across southern CT.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:01 pm

btvhopper wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
HVN has just won the federal appeal court case involving paving the overruns on runway 2-20. The plan is to pave 1000 feet of the southern end and 400 feet of the northern end. This should go a long way in adding new airlines and flights while reducing the dependence on BDL and area flyers will have a closeby airport to use.
https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 082103.php


Any growth HVN is able to secure will come entirely at the expense of BDL. The Connecticut market is not growing to accommodate growth at HVN without cannibilizing BDL. I really have trouble understanding the need for the HVN expansion...all this just to get a few more E-175’s to DCA, PHL, ORD, etc and risk cannibalizing BDL mainline? I don’t get how it’s a positive.


Its very positive for area travelers, look at a state map and see that BDL is not positioned to serve the entire state. Don't New Haven area flyers deserve to use an existing airport that's much closer than BDL? Fairfield flyer use HPN and Groton-New London flyers use PVD. The traffic on I-91 and I-95 is terrible at times causing missed flights, not so with HVN.
Allegiant has already said they will commit to HVN pending the runway upgrade and both DL and UA must be watching AA's numbers and hopefully will offer service to ATL,DTW and IAD.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:21 pm

btvhopper wrote:
Here’s a schematic of the new walkway to connect the North and South terminals at BTV.

So it looks like the walkway will in fact go right through the 2nd floor offices, then punch a hole through the wall at one of United’s mainline gates. Is anyone familiar with the layout of BTV’s administrative offices?

https://go.boarddocs.com/vt/burlingtonv ... alkway.pdf



I believe that the main entrance to the administration offices is at the southwest corner of the building. In any case, it looks like this plan mainly uses the empty space where the restaurant used to be and the existing hallway. It does not looks like many offices will be impacted, and those may be meeting rooms and (possibly unused) rental spaces.

Another interesting note - the minutes for the June 20 commission meeting state that a plan for a consolidated terminal with consolidated TSA checkpoints and more hold space is being prepared for a grant application.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:54 pm

Neither BDL nor HVN will poach from each other. Both markets are self sustaining. The problem HVN could run into is terminal size. Can it handle multiple 76+ seat aircraft pax loads at the same time? While the airport will never be a BDL sized operation, there will be an increase in traffic and almost certainly mainline aircraft in the A220/A320 size range. Baggage claim, TSA, and gate seating may be tricky during peak hours. Yes, UA once flew 737’s out of there, but the line was brutal. I flew that trip, check in was out the door. To truly make the airport work, the terminal needs replacing. As for who will eventually fly there...I’m going with AA to CLT, PHL, and ORD, Cape Air and Southern Air Express to the islands seasonally, Delta to ATL and maybe DTW, and Allegiant a couple days a week to a couple of cities in Florida.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:21 pm

The April drop at PVD is sort of an anomaly... F9 added way too much last year that made little sense. WN and D8 were heavily hit by MAX cancellations and G4 was down two markets. SY should offset F9 and G4 will be back to where they should be with the addition of SAV and resumption of CVG (never made sense in the winter/spring). D8 is flying again also. F9 has also added a few weekly frequencies over last winter so far which shows they will be doing more incremental and sustainable growth.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:21 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
The April drop at PVD is sort of an anomaly... F9 added way too much last year that made little sense. WN and D8 were heavily hit by MAX cancellations and G4 was down two markets. SY should offset F9 and G4 will be back to where they should be with the addition of SAV and resumption of CVG (never made sense in the winter/spring). D8 is flying again also. F9 has also added a few weekly frequencies over last winter so far which shows they will be doing more incremental and sustainable growth.


I assume you mean April YTD and not just the month, as all 4 months were below last years levels. All of that makes sense, to cause a lot of the challenges, but wanted to make sure you were covering the year so far.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:32 am

VS4ever wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
The April drop at PVD is sort of an anomaly... F9 added way too much last year that made little sense. WN and D8 were heavily hit by MAX cancellations and G4 was down two markets. SY should offset F9 and G4 will be back to where they should be with the addition of SAV and resumption of CVG (never made sense in the winter/spring). D8 is flying again also. F9 has also added a few weekly frequencies over last winter so far which shows they will be doing more incremental and sustainable growth.


I assume you mean April YTD and not just the month, as all 4 months were below last years levels. All of that makes sense, to cause a lot of the challenges, but wanted to make sure you were covering the year so far.


The other months were down but not as drastically, those months were more limited to the F9 and G4 reductions which have been reversed or offset going forward (June/July onward... May might still be bad).
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:12 am

To complete the trio (BDL/PVD and MHT), here's MHT

MHT – Manchester Round-up for April 2019

Data goes back to 2014 to give a 6 year view

Link to File: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjN


Month
Total Pax 152,336 13.8% down over 2018, (outbound 77,512 down 13.6%, inbound 75,024 down 13.9%)
2014 vs 2019 down 18% from 91,456 to 75,024

Up

Absolutely Nobody

Down

Everyone

DL 20,3% to 19,598 (5,002 decrease) – 2014 26,744 – 26.7% down
UA 16% to 9,871 (1,884 decrease) – 2014 8,943 – 10.4% up (the only black calculation)
WN 14% to 86,503 (14,036 decrease) – 2014 109,043 – 20.9% down
AA 7.4% to 36,564 (2,923 decrease) – 2014 – 39,693 – 7.9% down

Market Share

#1 - WN 56.7% down 0.1% and 2.5% down from 2014
#2 – AA 24.0% up 1.6% and 2.5% up from 2014
#3 – DL 12.8% down 1.1% and 1.6% down from 2014
#4 – UA 6.5% down 0.2% and 1.6% up from 2014


Market Share Comments:
I like to be positive, I really do, but there’s not a whole lot positive I can say about any of these numbers, except to say that AA took the effective market share from the others, by reducing the least amount % wise. While WN took at 14K beating because of their reductions, it only affected their share YOY by 0.1%, but there is really no love here, which is a theme that is likely going to run through this entire analysis.

No QTD as it’s only April, therefore = month info.

YTD

Total Pax 529,059 9.9% (58,104) decrease over 2018, (outbound 268,082 down 9.9%, inbound 260,977 also down 9.9%)
2014 vs 2019 down 18.3% from 647,426 to 529,059

Up

AA 1.7% to 143,933 (2,395 increase) – 2014 – 140,283 – 2.6% up

Down

DL 26% to 63,437 (22,278 decrease) – 2014 85,264 – 25.6% down
WN 10.5% to 290,971 (33,972 decrease) – 2014 – 367,092– 20.7% down
UA 11.3% to 30,432 (3,873 decrease) – 2014 –54,271– 43.9% down


Market Share

#1 - WN 55% down 0.3% and 1.7% down from 2014
#2 – AA 27.2% up 3.1% and 5.5% up from 2014
#3 – DL 12% down 2.6% and 1.2% down from 2014
#4 – UA 5.8% flat over 2018 and down2.6% from 2014



Market Share Comments:
Month translates into YTD, AA showing the bright-spot with a 1.7% increase in pax and a 3.1% increase in market share, largely at the expense of DL, but WN continues it’s retrograde steps from MHT by hemoraging an additional 34K pax in 2019 so far. But really it’s DL that’s spaced out here, down by a full quarter in the first 4 months. WN still by far the dominant carrier and that is very unlikely to change unless new blood is brought in or the others decide they fancy a fight, so far, neither is happening.

Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of April is 1,789,804 pax which is 9.4% down on this time last year (186,588 decrease),

Up

AA 3.5% to 470,396 (15,823 increase) – 14/15 – 424,962 – 10.7% up

Down

UA 22% to 110,720 (31,215 decrease) – 14/15 –159,338–30.5% down
DL 15.3% to 233,080 (42,157 decrease) – 14/15 318,433 – 26.8% down
WN 11.7% to 974,096 (129,243 decrease) – 14/15 –1,160,588– 16.1% down


Market Share

#1 - WN 55.8% down 2.5% and 0.4% down from 2014
#2 – AA 23% up 2.2% and 2.4% up from 2014
#3 – DL 13.9% up 0.6% and 1.5% down from 2014
#4 – UA 7.2% down 0.3% and down 0.5% from 2014

Market Share Comments:
Losing 129k pax definitely hurt WN’s share at MHT and it was partially picked up by AA and DL even though DL lost pax count at a higher rate than WN did during the year. It’s really a continuation of the reversals over a long period of time. WN have now dropped below 1m pax a year at MHT and I do not see any sign of them getting back above that level.

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2019

I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for May to December,

AA – 481,760 (up 6.9% over 2018)
WN – 894,076 (kiss goodbye to the 1m+ club, down 16.2% over 2018)
DL – 207,096 (down 21.3% over 2018)
UA – 93,063 (down 27.8% over 2018)


Approx. guess: 1,676,281, down 12.3%, again this is a GUESS! As of April many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, some of the big reductions seen in 2019 if the reductions continue, this number is going to drop in a hurry. I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun, please do not flame me for not covering every permutation of aircraft and seat counts and socio-economic issue that could lead to that number changing, maybe after December’s numbers are out, I will go find this and see how close I was.


Cargo Analysis

Month
Total Cargo 15,494,930 15,4% up over 2018, (2014 vs 2019 up 16.8% from 13,268,961) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.

Up

5X (UPS) 20.4% to 8,725,964 (1,480,301 increase) – 2014 7,129,731 – 22.4% up
FX 9.1% to 6,236,177 (519,702 increase) – 2014 5,635,189 – 10.7% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 17.8% to 488,349 (73,696 increase) – 2014 458,527 – 6.5% up

Down

WN 7.6% to 43,092 (3,850 decrease) – 2014 34,780 – 23.9% up


YTD
Total Cargo 59,517,533 5.3% up over 2018, (2014 vs 2019 up 17.5% from 50,669,504) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.

Up

WN 11.3% to 196,955 (20,068 increase) – 2014 128,769 – 53% up
5X (UPS) 5.8% to 31,747,559 (1,734,044 increase) – 2014 27,279,109 – 16.4% up
FX 4.9% to 25,770,971 (1,214,662 increase) – 2014 21,328,947 – 20.8% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 3.2% to 1,798,615 (56,320 increase) – 2014 1,889,406 – 4.8% down


Down

Negligible

Rolling
Total Cargo 188,827,087 6.7% up over the prior 12 months, (14/15 158,332,707 up 19.3%) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.

Up

WN 23.6% to 705,064 (134,637 increase) – 14/15 396,185 – 78% up
5X (UPS) 8.3% to 104,691,056 (8,040,373 increase) – 14/15 88,076,075 –18.9% up
FX 4.8% to 77,386,600 (3,563,292 increase) – 14/15 63,770,443 – 21.4% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 1.5% to 6,035,554 (87,246 increase) – 14/15 6,046,004 – 0.2% down


Down

Negligible


Estimates for Cargo Counts for Year End 2019

I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for May to December,

5X – 110,759,228 (up 7.6% over 2018)
FX – 79,877,975 (up 4.9% over 2018)
WG – 6,097,699 (up 2% over 2018)
WN– 824,992 (up 20.4% over 2018)

Approx. guess: 197,565,025, up 6.3%, again this is a GUESS! As of April many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun, please do not flame me for not covering every permutation of aircraft and seat counts and socio-economic issue that could lead to that number changing, maybe after December’s numbers are out, I will go find this and see how close I was.

As ever, any questions, let me know.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 96
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:02 am

CairnterriAIR wrote:
Neither BDL nor HVN will poach from each other. Both markets are self sustaining. The problem HVN could run into is terminal size. Can it handle multiple 76+ seat aircraft pax loads at the same time? While the airport will never be a BDL sized operation, there will be an increase in traffic and almost certainly mainline aircraft in the A220/A320 size range. Baggage claim, TSA, and gate seating may be tricky during peak hours. Yes, UA once flew 737’s out of there, but the line was brutal. I flew that trip, check in was out the door. To truly make the airport work, the terminal needs replacing. As for who will eventually fly there...I’m going with AA to CLT, PHL, and ORD, Cape Air and Southern Air Express to the islands seasonally, Delta to ATL and maybe DTW, and Allegiant a couple days a week to a couple of cities in Florida.


BDL will lose some passengers as for years BDL poached HVN with its meager Dash-8's to PHL. I agree the terminal cannot handle a big increase in flights but it can handle more than it does now. I see DL to ATL and DTW, along with UA to IAD and maybe ORD. Allegiant has already said upon the runway upgrade being finished, it will offer several weekly flights to Florida. HVN has a large nearby catchment area to draw from and with 3-4 airlines, it should do well. I also remember UA's 737's to ORD and the line went out to the drop off area but that was with the old terminal when I used the service. I don't see many mainline planes but CRJ-700 and 900's and E-175's will be the mainstay of the service. I think the A220 might be a good fit for early AM Delta flights to ATL.
 
BTVB6Flyer
Posts: 516
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:20 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:09 am

Man that BTV terminal 'connection' is kind of strange. That and they really love to use cheap containers for a lot of their projects.

If their goal is to reduce TSA costs or retail labor, fine, but damn that's one way of doing it.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4383
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:00 am

Yeah it is very strange! But I think its a great addition to just have something to connect the gate areas! It's not something the average customer will need to use, and they can make it look nicer with carpeting and things.
 
bomber996
Posts: 512
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:21 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:34 am

https://www.wmur.com/article/multimilli ... t/28340856

Looks like PSM is getting some improvements.

Peace :box:
"We've recently upped our standards, so up yours." - Federal Aviation Administration
 
Portlander
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon May 28, 2018 12:57 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:36 pm

Impressive research VS4ever. If MHT continues to decline in the future, we may eventually see BVT catch up to it in passenger counts. Don't think anyone would have predicted this turn of events over a decade ago. After the morning push the terminal must be eerily quiet with the exception of the Southwest gates, and 14 available jetways cannot be necessary anymore. I still think Manchester is going to land another airline down the road which should reverse the negative trend.
 
User avatar
VS4ever
Posts: 2240
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:02 pm

Portlander wrote:
Impressive research VS4ever. If MHT continues to decline in the future, we may eventually see BVT catch up to it in passenger counts. Don't think anyone would have predicted this turn of events over a decade ago. After the morning push the terminal must be eerily quiet with the exception of the Southwest gates, and 14 available jetways cannot be necessary anymore. I still think Manchester is going to land another airline down the road which should reverse the negative trend.


I don’t think MHT’s fortunes change much unless BOS taps out, general theory for Massport is they have about another 10m they can shoehorn into BOS before they have to make some hard decisions. ORH is some of the first moves on that front. PVD is waiting in the wings for South so MHT should be the North, however with F9 showing up at BOS now the list of airlines wishing to try MHT is small to say the least. I daren’t push the Moxy angle for risk of getting killed on here, but it does seem to me to be an option for them.
Either way with AA the only ones really doing a whole lot, the vicious cycle continues, however revenues for MHT will be offset by the increased cargo traffic that keeps piling in. Once that slows down then they have a huge problem to deal with, if they don’t already.
That said, PWM, PSM and BTV should be in prime position to pick up more local traffic, I am just waiting for the BTV-BOS feeder to come, it has to right?
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
CairnterriAIR
Posts: 670
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:52 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:34 pm

airlineworker wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:
Neither BDL nor HVN will poach from each other. Both markets are self sustaining. The problem HVN could run into is terminal size. Can it handle multiple 76+ seat aircraft pax loads at the same time? While the airport will never be a BDL sized operation, there will be an increase in traffic and almost certainly mainline aircraft in the A220/A320 size range. Baggage claim, TSA, and gate seating may be tricky during peak hours. Yes, UA once flew 737’s out of there, but the line was brutal. I flew that trip, check in was out the door. To truly make the airport work, the terminal needs replacing. As for who will eventually fly there...I’m going with AA to CLT, PHL, and ORD, Cape Air and Southern Air Express to the islands seasonally, Delta to ATL and maybe DTW, and Allegiant a couple days a week to a couple of cities in Florida.


BDL will lose some passengers as for years BDL poached HVN with its meager Dash-8's to PHL. I agree the terminal cannot handle a big increase in flights but it can handle more than it does now. I see DL to ATL and DTW, along with UA to IAD and maybe ORD. Allegiant has already said upon the runway upgrade being finished, it will offer several weekly flights to Florida. HVN has a large nearby catchment area to draw from and with 3-4 airlines, it should do well. I also remember UA's 737's to ORD and the line went out to the drop off area but that was with the old terminal when I used the service. I don't see many mainline planes but CRJ-700 and 900's and E-175's will be the mainstay of the service. I think the A220 might be a good fit for early AM Delta flights to ATL.



Do you think UA will make another go at HVN with Newark in close proximity? I would think they would want to keep the o/d traffic there rather than funneling it away to the other hubs. Just having CT shore passengers drive,Uber, or train to a worldwide nonstop network? Allegiant is a definite as they have all but stated they will come with a longer runway. Long shot....I can see them serving SJU from HVN. Crazy sounding...but remember the huge Hispanic population in the cities up here. Honestly I doubt traffic will be stolen from BDL. If anything HVN will poach from HPN and to a small level LGA. The Shoreline passengers mostly flew out of New York. BDL serves an entirely different market.
 
User avatar
LotsaRunway
Posts: 298
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:48 pm

bomber996 wrote:
https://www.wmur.com/article/multimillion-dollar-improvements-underway-at-portsmouth-international-airport/28340856

Looks like PSM is getting some improvements.

Peace :box:

"The airport services two domestic airlines and four international carriers."
Can someone help me with this? Allegent and Frontier must be the domestic airlines, and that's gracious given F9's announced hiatus. So who are the international carriers? Cargo? Regular charters?

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