Here's the PVD data and analysis.
PVD - Providence Round-up for April 2019
Data goes back to 2015 to give a 5 year view (15,16,17,18,19)
Link to File:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V10vY ... 8tUN1vCxs4Month
Total Pax 337,256 14.2% down over 2018, (outbound 166,029 down 14.6%, inbound 171,227 down 13.7%%)
2015 vs 2019 up 9.6% from 307,668 to 337,256
Up
B6 36% to 30,205 (7,993 increase) – 2015 – 24,616 – 22.7% up
DL 17.9% to 38,711 (5,873 increase) – 2015 36,801 – 5.2% up
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A
Down
G4 61.1% to 3,003 (4,725 decrease) – 2015 N/A
D8 60.6% to 6,647 (10,210 decrease) – 2015 N/A
F9 53.4% to 16,908 (19,391 decrease) – 2015 N/A
WN 20.7% to 132,692 (34,719 decrease) – 150,193, in 2015 – 11.7% down
AA 5.6% to 80,639 (4,741 decrease) – 71,169 in 2015 – 13.3% up
UA 0.5% to 23,757 (121 decrease) – 2015 – 23,631 – 0.5% up
Market Share
#1 - WN 39.3% down 3.3% and 9.5% down from 2015
#2 – AA 23.9% up 2.2% and 0.8% up from 2015
#3 – DL 11.5% up 3.1% and 0.5% down from 2015
#4 – B6 9% up 3.3% and 1% from 2015
#5 – UA 7% up 1% and 0.6% down from 2015
#6 – F9 5% down 4.2% and n/a from 2015
#7 – D8 2% down 2.3% and n/a from 2015
#8 – SY 1.3% (new entrant)
#9 – G4 0.9% down 1.1% and n/a from 2015
Market Share Comments:
Numbers are all over the place, with an overall reduction of 14.2%, many airlines suffered on pax counts and market shares as a result. Winner was B6 who not only increased pax count by 36%, they also increased their share by 3.3% to jump from 6th to 4th, other biggest winner was DL, with a 17.9% pax increase and a 3.1% share to move from 4th to 3rd. AA cemented their #2 spot with a 2.2% increase despite their pax count reduction.
Losers, F9 and WN, who dropped 4.2% and 3.3% respectively, with WN being the harsher of the two as that equated to nearly 35K pax less than the prior year.
No QTD as it’s only April, therefore = month info.
YTD
Total Pax 1,212,968 8.7% (115,637 decrease) over 2018, (outbound 607,560 down 8.5%, inbound 605,408 down 8.9%)
2015 vs 2019 up 12.7% from 1,076,246 to 1,212,968
Up
B6 29.6% to 110,132 (25,153 increase) – 2015 – 95,272 – 15.6% up
DL 15.9% to 140,150 (19,219 increase) – 2015 120,736 – 16.1% up
UA 7.6% to 78,881 (5,596 increase) – 2015 – 72,084 – 9.4% up
AA 2.3% to 304,096 (6,969 increase) – 259,131 in 2015 – 17.4% up
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A
Down
D8 61.4% to 20,373 (32,358 decrease) – 2015 N/A
G4 55.5% to 11,761 (14,678 decrease) – 2015 N/A
F9 46.1% to 69,769 (59,588 decrease) – 2015 N/A
WN 13.2% to 469,171 (71,210 decrease) – 523,042, in 2015 – 10.3% down
Market Share
#1 - WN 38.7% down 2% and 9.9% down from 2015
#2 – AA 25.1% up 2.7% and 1% up from 2015
#3 – DL 11.6% up 2.5% and 0.3% up from 2015
#4 – B6 9.1% up 2.7% and 0.2% from 2015
#5 – UA 6.5% up 1% and 0.2% down from 2015
#6 – F9 5.8% down 4% and n/a from 2015
#7 – D8 1.7% down 2.3% and n/a from 2015
#8 – G4 1.0% down 1% and n/a from 2015
#9 – SY 0.3% (new entrant)
Market Share Comments:
Well, when you have an 8.7% count reversal, it’s hard to find a whole lot of positives, but the big winners in % terms were AA, B6 and DL, all over which managed 2.5% or over increases in share. AA remains 2nd, and B6/DL move up one spot respectively to 4th and 3rd in the charts. UA also managed an uplift of 1% and a move up to 5th in the standings. How did this all happen, well F9 went tumbling from 3rd to 6th with a full 4% loss after reducing their pax count by almost ½, WN is still king of the hill with 38.7% and I doubt they are going to lose their crown any time yet, but 70K pax lost for the first month of the year, is likely to equate to around 250k for the full year.. that’s a BIG number and with their restrictions due to MAX flying carrying on, I do wonder if those numbers due to fleet switching are only going to get worse for them.
Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of April is 4,182,708 pax which is 0.8% up on this time last year (33K up), however given some of the recent declines, it is quite possible this could start to turn red in May or later, be interesting to see how the summer plays out.
Up
G4 31.4% to 54,818 (13,099 increase) – 2015 N/A
F9 16.1% to 319,813 (44,381 increase) – 2015 N/A
UA 9.9% to 311,943 (28,163 increase) – 2015 – 301,270 – 3.5% up
S4 6.5% to 5,597 (342 increase) – 2015 N/A
D8 4.8% to 157,527 (7,188 increase) – 2015 N/A
DL 3.9% to 461,537 (17,443 increase) – 2015 459,458 – 0.5% up
AA 3.8% to 1,008,506 (36,517 increase) – 2015 850,738 – 18.5% up
B6 0.8% to 264,060 (2,118 increase) – 2015 – 276,161 – 4.4% down
ZX (new operator) – (10,351 increase) – 2015 N/A
SY (new operator) – (4,222 increase) – 2015 N/A
Down
WN 7% to 1,572,775 (117,602 decrease) – 2015 - 1,638,769 – 4% down
Market Share
#1 - WN 40.7% down 5.2% and 5.4% down from 2015
#2 – AA 23.4% down 2.1% and 0.5% down from 2015
#3 – DL 10.7% down 1.2% and 2.2% down from 2015
#4 – UA 6.8% down 1% and 1.6% from 2015
#5 – F9 6.6% up 6.6% and N/A from 2015
#6 – B6 6.3% down 1.1% and 1.5% down from 2015
#7 – International 4.1% up 3,1% and N/A from 2015
#8 – G4 1.0% up 1% and n/a from 2015
#9 – SY (new entrant)
Market Share Comments:
Right now, because of a strong back half, the rolling 12 month is still up 0.8%, if the May numbers come in as bad as the first 4 months, this trend is going to roll back, right now the market share is showing a switch from WN, AA and DL primarily to F9 and International, but as those are not going well in 19, this should adjust again in the coming months.
Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2019
I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for May to December, the wild card is F9 as I have not had a chance to study their actual flight bank to see what they might be able to achieve. So I have estimated them on a complete flyer below. Major player information below.
AA – 1,034,970 (up 3.3% over 2018)
WN – 1,495,996 (kiss goodbye to the 1.5m+ club, down 9% over 2018)
DL – 474,160 (up 7.2% over 2018)
F9 –360,103 (down 5.1%, although I expect this to drop significantly given the drop in the early 19 numbers)
UA – 335,073 (up 9.4% over 2018)
B6 – 265,305 (up 11% over 2018)
G4- 68,337 (down 1.7% over 2018, though like F9 expect this to drop further during the year)
SY – 36,722 (new entrant)
D8 – 164,085 (down 13.4% over 2018 and this will actually continue to reverse until the MAX flying starts again, if it ever recovers)
Approx guess: 4,254,563, down 1%, again this is a GUESS! As of April many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, some of the big reductions seen in 2019 so far are yet to really filter through to the rolling average due to the strong back half 18 performance, if the reductions continue, this number is going to drop in a hurry. I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun, please do not flame me for not covering every permutation of aircraft and seat counts and socio-ecomic issue that could lead to that number changing, maybe after December’s numbers are out, I will go find this and see how close I was.
As ever, any questions, let me know.