More Analysis for you.... this time from the airport numbers for MHT, PVD and BDL...PVD:
- Data thru July (Slackers)
File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V10vY9 ... sp=sharing
Bit of a mixture in the data thus far, YTD, AA is up 4.8%, B6 up 27.2%, DL up 9.2%, UA up 0.3% offset by Southwest down 12.4%, Frontier down 51.9%, Allegiant down 41.5% and International down 69.6% mostly because of Norwegian's pull out.
Overall down 9.5% and 238K (2,275,805)
Top 2 rankings for WN (857,378) and AA (584,463) are unchanged, but as noted above, AA is on the way up, WN is on the way down, even though it's #1 by a considerable margin.
#3 is now DL (262,331) up from #4,
#4 is now B6 (181,864) up from #6
#5 is still UA (159,467)
#6 is now F9 (124,945)
Sun Country has debuted at #8, although should flip ahead of International at #7 with only a 5K difference between the two.
Based on current rolling averages and performance to date, I am estimating 3.9m for the year vs 4.3m last year. down 8.3% with a similar set up to that noted above. BDL
- Data thru September
File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B61t8C ... sp=sharing
Another mixture here, B6 the big winners with 11.9% growth (58,480), F9 with 45,982 from a standing start, DL next with 6.4% (45,439) and NK with 14.6% but (38,901 passenger increase), offset by WN down 6% (54,673), UA down 4.7% (19,707), AA down 0.2% (2,276) and International 4.1% (3,787)
Overall YTD up by 2.7% (3,933,728 vs 3,829,286) - 104K
Top 2 rankings remain the same AA is #1 (935,181) for a 23.8% share (down 0.7% because of the impact of F9 and others). WN is #2 (858,315) for a 21.8% share (down 2% share and thus the gap to AA is increasing)
#3 is DL (751,971) who are closing the gap on WN, but still have a way to go 19.1% share up 0.6%
#4 is B6 (549,573) who are pretty much cemented in this position, share is 14% up 1.2%
#5 is UA (398,912) pretty comfortable ahead of NK, but the gap is closing.. share is 10.1% down 0.8%
#6 is NK (305,092) up to 7.8% share (up 0.8%) and as noted closing the gap on UA, but have a way to go.
#7 is International (88,265) drops for D8 (pull out) and DL off set by a slight uptick for AC
#8 is F9 with 45,982 from a standing start,
Based on my current estimate, I expect BDL to run 6.8m this year vs just under 6.7m last year. the drops in WN and UA are dragging everything down sadly.MHT
- The world goes down, down down - Data thru September
File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19v-Fdg ... sp=sharing
AA is the only shining light up 20K YTD (5.6%), everyone else is down DL 15% (29,368), UA 33% (32,748) and WN 9.3% (69,912)
Overall YTD is 1,289,148 vs 1,402,041 and nearly 1.6m in 2014 as a comparative.
WN is still the out and out number 1 (684,802) and a 53.1% share of the market, down 0.7%
#2 is AA, who as a result of other movements and it's own increases (373,063) moved up from 25.2% to 28.9% share so far this year
#3 is DL (166,025) moved down from 13.9% to 12.9%
#4 is UA (64,184) dropped from 6.9% to 5% share.
My current estimate is 1,7m for the year vs 1.9m for 2018, which equates to an 11% drop overall. Cargo
A bright spot for MHT is the amount of cargo continues to climb, YTD, 5.5m lbs extra at 140m, As you can imagine the Big 2 take most of it, but it's not even UPS is up 4.5m lbs (6%) to 78.5m, FX mainline up 827K to 56.1m and Wiggins (FX) - 305K up 6.8%
Rough Estimate for 2019 year is 193.3m lbs up 4% from 185.8m last year