paysonmt77 wrote:MHT's numbers are out and its a downward slope.
June 2019 149,161
June 2018 158,475
May 2019 154,209
May 2018 169,380
PWM's numbers are 60k more for June than MHT. I don't have BTV numbers, but I am sure they are close to beating MHT also.
Here's the analysis based on those numbers:
MHT – Manchester Round-up for June 2019
Data goes back to 2014 to give a 6 year view
Link to File:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjNMonthTotal Pax 149,161 5.9% down over 2018, (outbound 73,365 down 5.0%, inbound 75,796 down 6.7%)
2014 vs 2019 down 18.3% from 182,573 to 149,161
UpAA 6.5% to 44,543 (2,704 increase) – 2014 – 36,101 – 23.4% up
DownUA 51.3% to 6,154 (6,492 decrease) – 2014 14,315 – 57% down
WN 5.9% to 77,493 (4,817 decrease) – 2014 99,715 – 22.3% down
DL 3.4% to 20,807 (743 decrease) – 2014 32,266 – 35.5% down
Market Share#1 - WN 52% flat for 18/19 and 2.7% down from 2014
#2 – AA 29.9% up 3.5% and 10.1% up from 2014
#3 – DL 13.9% up 0.4% and 3.7% down from 2014
#4 – UA 4.1% down 3.9% and 3.7% down from 2014
Market Share Comments:
Nice to see AA increase YOY, but you can’t stem the tide of a 6% decrease from WN and a halving of the UA number to produce an overall positive result, overall all you can say is a better decrease that earlier months.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q2Total Pax 455,906 9.7% down over 2018, (outbound 224,222 down 9.7%, inbound 231,684 down 9.6%)
2014 vs 2019 down 18.4% from 558,732 to 455,906
UpAA 1.2% to 123,140 (1,473 increase) – 2014 – 116.483 – 5.7% up
DownUA 37.9% to 22,762 (13,875 decrease) – 2014 33,590 – 32.2% down
DL 14.6% to 59,065 (10,105 decrease) – 2014 87,863 – 32.8% down
WN 9.4% to 250,607 (25,915 decrease) – 2014 319,698 – 21.6% down
Market Share#1 - WN 55% 0.2% up for 18/19 and 2.2% down from 2014
#2 – AA 27% up 2.9% and 6.2% up from 2014
#3 – DL 13% down 0.7% and 2.8% down from 2014
#4 – UA 5% down 2.3% and 1% down from 2014
Market Share Comments:Similar comments to the month, nice to see the uptick in AA, but the other 3 numbers are just horrid.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YTDTotal Pax 832,429 9% (82,589) decrease over 2018, (outbound 414,792 down 9.1%, inbound 417,437 down 8.9%)
2014 vs 2019 down 18.5% from 1,021,287 to 832,429
UpAA 3% to 230,509 (6,791 increase) – 2014 – 208,803 – 6.2% up
DownUA 26.8% to 43,323 (15,864 decrease) – 2014 –79,664– 45.1% down
DL 21% to 102,904 (27,381 decrease) – 2014 127,078 – 29.7% down
WN 9.2% to 455,075 (45,851 decrease) – 2014 – 563,201– 21.2% down
Market Share#1 - WN 54.7% down 0.1% and 1.9% down from 2014
#2 – AA 27.7% up 3.2% and 6.4% up from 2014
#3 – DL 12.4% down 1.9% and 2% down from 2014
#4 – UA 5.2% 1.3% over 2018 and down 2.5% from 2014
Market Share Comments:Consistent trend, UA and DL are massively reduced in % terms, but in absolute numbers, nearly 50,000 lost by WN, If you assume an average fare of $200, that’s $10m in airfare gone, and MHT got to be hurting for fees and concession revenues. AA is the bright spot, but just barely..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RollingRolling 12 months at the end of June is 1,765,319 pax which is 9.5% down on this time last year (186,140 decrease), (1,789,804 when I last reported at the end of April)
UpAA 3.8% to 474,792 (17,386 increase) – 14/15 – 426,856 – 11.2% up
DownUA 29.5% to 98,729 (41,406 decrease) – 14/15 –162,050–39.1% down
DL 16.5% to 227,977 (45,141 decrease) – 14/15 304,388 – 25.1% down
WN 10.9% to 962,217 (117,251 decrease) – 14/15 –1,159,061– 17% down
Market Share#1 - WN 55.3% down 2.8% and 1.1% down from 2014
#2 – AA 23.4% up 2.4% and 2.7% up from 2014
#3 – DL 14% up 0.6% and 0.8% down from 2014
#4 – UA 7.2% down 0.3% and down 0.7% from 2014
Market Share Comments:AA continues to draw share from the others, primarily because the others are just hemorrhaging passengers each month, with the 19 numbers continuing to draw lower, I suspect this will continue with AA taking minor gains, but unable to stop the other 3 from dragging the numbers down
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2019
I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Jun Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for July to December,
AA – 484,077 (up 7.4% over 2018) – 481,760 when last reported
WN – 907,132 (down 14.9% over 2018)
DL – 207,305 (down 21.3% over 2018)
UA – 82,358 (down 36.1% over 2018)
Approx. guess:
1,681.490 (1,676,281 last time out), down 12%, again this is a GUESS! The number has ticked up slightly as although the trend is down, actually 9.5% is a better drop than recent times and as such. However,I am projecting an almost 230k drop in Pax for 2019. As of June many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year, some of the big reductions seen in 2019 if the reductions continue, this number is going to drop in a hurry. I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cargo AnalysisMonthTotal Cargo 15,999,037 2% up over 2018, (2014 vs 2019 up 28% from 12,497,066) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.
Up5X (UPS) 5.2% to 9,320,688 (464,057 increase) – 2014 6,871,882 – 35.6% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 2.9% to 558.705 (15,733 increase) – 2014 498,393 – 12.1% up
DownWN 39.2% to 42.940 (27,684 decrease) – 2014 32,528 – 32% up
FX 2.2% to 6,074,293 (135,481 decrease) – 2014 6,871,882 – 19.3% up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QTDTotal Cargo 48,107,573 7.4% up over 2018, (2014 vs 2019 up 23,6% from 38,932,566) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.
Up5X (UPS) 10.6% to 27,438,953 (2,636,835 increase) – 2014 21,204,895 – 29.4% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 7.7% to 1,614,950 (115,456 increase) – 2014 1,474,046 – 12.1% up
FX 3.3% to 18,905,609 (598,644 increase) – 2014 16,135,194 – 17.2% up
DownWN 23% to 142,478 (42,481 decrease) – 2014 99,583 – 43.1% up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YTDTotal Cargo 92,130,376 4.9% up over 2018, (2014 vs 2019 up 20.7% from 76,333,109) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.
Up5X (UPS) 6.1% to 50,460,548 (2,890,578 increase) – 2014 41,354,273 – 22% up
FX 3.5% to 38,440,403 (1,293,604 increase) – 2014 31,828,952 – 20.8% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 3.5% to 2,925,216 (98,080 increase) – 2014 2,904,925 – 0.7% up
DownWN 6% to 296,341 (18,863 increase) – 2014 193,572 – 53.1% up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RollingTotal Cargo 190, 068,418 5.4% up over the prior 12 months (188,827,087 in April when last reported), (14/15 158,421,281 up 20%) as some of the numbers in this list are so small, will look at the major ones only. Fed Ex is reported as 2 pieces with mainline and Wiggins. All totals in Lbs.
UpWN 9.4% to 666,133 (57,279 increase) – (705,064 in April) – 14/15 386,943 – 72.2% up
5X (UPS) 7% to 105,847,590 (6,893,381 increase) – (104,691,056 in April) 14/15 88,749,333 –19.3% up
FX 3.6% to 77,465,542 (2,710,251 increase) – (77,386,600 in April) 14/15 63,144,048 – 22.7% up
WG (Wiggins FX) 2.1% to 6,077,314 (123,917 increase) – (6,035,554 in April) 14/15 – 6,098,622 0.3% down
DownNegligible
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimates for Cargo Counts for Year End 2019I have created these estimates, by using the Jan-Apr Actuals and applying the current rolling % increase or decrease rate for July to December,
5X – 109,705,981 (up 6.6% over 2018) – 110,759,228 in April – growth rate slowed in May/June
FX – 78,880,397 (up 3.6% over 2018) – 79,877,975 in April – growth rate also slowed
WG – 6,142,923 (up 2.7% over 2018) – 6,097,699 in April
WN– 700,992 (up 2.3% over 2018) – 824,992 in April
Approx. guess:,
195,439,679 up 5.4%, again this is a GUESS! (197,565,025 - As of April)
Many factors will play into the final numbers and it will be modified as we go through the year. I’ve done a limited factor calculation for fun
As ever, any questions, let me know.