SY (sun country) will begin BNA-PVD in the summer. they’re also announcing BNA-LAX/PDX; i wonder if there will be connection opportunities in BNA.

PVD gets SY with MSP and BNA starting in April I believe its seasonal but who knows, perhaps the service could transition to LAS/CUN or something for the winter. All thats missing from PVD now is NK, however I really don't see a viable place for them aside from MYR which is really better suited for G4.

rnav2dlrey wrote:

SY (sun country) will begin BNA-PVD in the summer. they’re also announcing BNA-LAX/PDX; i wonder if there will be connection opportunities in BNA.

Theres good connections to PDX LAS and LAX over both MSP and BNA in both directions, they don't do same plane it seems but I think PVD-BNA-LAX is the same plane

Congrats to PVD on their new flights on SY. Hope they are successful and lead additional service.

Still hoping for a new carrier to add service from MHT. Was hoping for F9, but with them adding service from BOS seems unlikely for the moment. B6 they appear to closing stations. Perhaps NK to FLL and MCO 3 or 4 weekly perhaps MHT-DTW again 3x to 4x and ORD. One can wish.

Looks like Frontier is adding BDL-RDU. I wonder if Delta responds at all? This route has a long history dating back to the old Midway days and has continued being served by someone for at least 20 or more years.

I assume there will be more additions by F9 at BDL but I am not confident with anything F9 adds with their track record.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/busin ... 14455.html

Really interested to see how PVD is doing with all this increased service. Last time I've been there was no ticket counter space and F9 was using every available common use gate on the north side. Wonder if they have any expansion in mind especially with these new additions (SY, LF, AC) and ramped up services (B6, AA, WN).

btvhopper wrote:

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

Does anyone know what gate F9 is using at BTV?

I imagine something in the South terminal (Delta and Jetblue) as there should be more space there. I did notice the airport is purchasing another passenger bridge in the next month or two so I'm wondering if that's for F9.

Ah makes sense, maybe even utilize the B6 gate. I really hope BTV works for F9 and they can add more routes and expand MCO.

It's been a while since I have visually looked at BTV, but if they could expand out toward the tarmac and put in a restaurant 'row', news place in that while connecting the two terminals it would eliminate the need for multi news and food retails spaces in both terminals, connect TSA free zone and probably consolidate the retail and increase seating, which last I knew/saw could use it....that was before they had multiple mainline flights etc.

uconn99 wrote:

Looks like Frontier is adding BDL-RDU. I wonder if Delta responds at all? This route has a long history dating back to the old Midway days and has continued being served by someone for at least 20 or more years.

Before Midway, AA had 3 727s/day to the RDU hub. There was a break, as American Eagle stopped the route in May 2010 and Delta Connection didn't pick it up until November. It's a high yield route for Delta, so there is no need to respond to bottom feeding.

Btv is adding a new gate 14c it’s next to the restaurant. They will not have a jet bridge. The airport just ordered a covered boarding ramp for the aircraft. You will have to go outside to board the plane. DGS looks like they will be doing the ground handling. Also the airport is broke, not making expansion...increasing fees and trying to build an airport hotel for some reason.

Frontier is adding BDL - MCO; seasonal starting May 1, 2019. Makes me wonder what other seasonal adds is Frontier going to throw from BDL? (Montego Bay is saying pick me - lol). I am concerned, Frontier does not have the best track record of sticking around.

I think this is the first season in...ages (since the early 90s?) that DL has not run BDL-MCO in any capacity whatsoever, no even Saturday-only. Makes sense to have another carrier step in.

Wow! 5 airlines flying BDL-MCO. I wonder how long this will last.

bdlflyer wrote:

Frontier is adding BDL - MCO; seasonal starting May 1, 2019. Makes me wonder what other seasonal adds is Frontier going to throw from BDL? (Montego Bay is saying pick me - lol). I am concerned, Frontier does not have the best track record of sticking around.

I'm not sure what Frontier is considering "the season". Sure, with the area attractions, Orlando can be considered a year-round destination. But Southwest, which has history on the route, typically runs 3 flights/day during the week, 4 on Saturday during the winter and spring, then drops to two daily flights in June. DL runs that Saturday flight in March and April, so basically we know when peak traffic is.

Interestingly, the third JetBlue flight (which previously wasn't a thing in late spring) has been scheduled right on top of the Frontier flight beginning May 1.

HVNandrew wrote:

I think this is the first season in...ages (since the early 90s?) that DL has not run BDL-MCO in any capacity whatsoever, no even Saturday-only. Makes sense to have another carrier step in.

Delta will be running mainline (717) Saturday only service on BDL/MCO starting March 2nd thru March 30th. Then starting April 6th thru the 27th they will be running CRJ 900 on the route.
First time in a long time I have seen mainline service on the BDL/MCO route!

Novaboy2525 wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

I think this is the first season in...ages (since the early 90s?) that DL has not run BDL-MCO in any capacity whatsoever, no even Saturday-only. Makes sense to have another carrier step in.

Delta will be running mainline (717) Saturday only service on BDL/MCO starting March 2nd thru March 30th. Then starting April 6th thru the 27th they will be running CRJ 900 on the route.
First time in a long time I have seen mainline service on the BDL/MCO route!

Whoops, completely missed that! Thanks for the info.

tomaheath wrote:

PVD757 wrote:

FYI: top 10 airports with no PVD nonstop service:

LAX
LAS
SAN
MSY
PHX
BNA
SFO
JAX
AUS
MSP

Where can this information be found? Thanks.

BNA and MSP have had nonstops from PVD in the past. I don't see that service returning anytime soon. DEN would be my wish list.

Novaboy2525 wrote:

Delta will be running mainline (717) Saturday only service on BDL/MCO starting March 2nd thru March 30th. Then starting April 6th thru the 27th they will be running CRJ 900 on the route.

I would not bank on the April schedule being correct yet. If you look, there are two CRJ9s overnight on Friday and three departures on Saturday AM. [MD90s and B739s don't balance, either.]

ViaAir also announced PIT-BDL today. Maybe they'll have better luck than OneJet.

mwearley wrote:

tomaheath wrote:

PVD757 wrote:

FYI: top 10 airports with no PVD nonstop service:

LAX
LAS
SAN
MSY
PHX
BNA
SFO
JAX
AUS
MSP

Where can this information be found? Thanks.

BNA and MSP have had nonstops from PVD in the past. I don't see that service returning anytime soon. DEN would be my wish list.

Sun Country just announced BNA & MSP starting in April and Frontier runs DEN from May through Fall!!

MO11 wrote:

uconn99 wrote:

Looks like Frontier is adding BDL-RDU. I wonder if Delta responds at all? This route has a long history dating back to the old Midway days and has continued being served by someone for at least 20 or more years.

Before Midway, AA had 3 727s/day to the RDU hub. There was a break, as American Eagle stopped the route in May 2010 and Delta Connection didn't pick it up until November. It's a high yield route for Delta, so there is no need to respond to bottom feeding.

Indeed, I forgot about AA's hub in RDU.

bdlflyer wrote:

Frontier is adding BDL - MCO; seasonal starting May 1, 2019. Makes me wonder what other seasonal adds is Frontier going to throw from BDL? (Montego Bay is saying pick me - lol). I am concerned, Frontier does not have the best track record of sticking around.

I agree about the uncertainty with F9, they pull routes as quick as they add them, sometimes before starting the route.

I think Jamaica would be better served on NK, WN or B6. Maybe Delta would take a chance at 1x weekly service to test the waters since they fly a few P2P routes from BDL (CLE, RDU, CUN, MCO).

Just read a news release from the local Portland paper this evening and was surprised to hear that Elite Air has leased hangar space at the Auburn/Lewiston Municipal Airport-KLEW (Approximately 25 miles northwest of PWM) where they will be doing aircraft maintainence on their fleet by the end of the month.

For those who are unfamiliar with LEW, it's is a sleepy little GA airport where Lufthansa Technik constructed a new hangar about ten years ago to overhaul one of two Lockheed Super Constellations that have been sitting at LEW since 1984. That project is just about done and the aircraft is due to be dismantled and shipped to Germany by sea soon.

I assume Elite will be using this newer built hanger? Say what you want about Elite, but they've been successful on their PWM to Florida routes that have been ongoing for several years now without being dropped. I honestly didn't expect them to last a year when they started flying scheduled flights with CRJ -200 and -700's four years ago. They do a lot of charter work, too, with college football teams among others.

'Portland-based Elite Airways signs lease for hangar at Auburn-Lewiston airport'


https://www.pressherald.com/2019/01/10/ ... n-airport/

btvhopper wrote:

UA mainline's load factor was only 73% for November; would BTV be at risk of losing some of the mainline service to EWR or ORD at that level?

73% of a mainline aircraft is still more than anything else that United has available, so they would have to switch to an RJ and then hope that the other scheduled flights could handle the surplus or else lose passengers. It doesn't seem like that would be guaranteed to work out any better. Also, I have read that UA got at least some of their A319s for good prices, so they might be doing okay at 70% full.

I believe this was discussed elsewhere. But F9 is entering BOS with flights to RDU and MCO. Now with F9 serving PWM, PSM, PVD, BDL, BTV and BOS, it's almost a slap in the face to MHT that they lack a ulcc.

Most of this has been discussed up thread, but thanks to enilria, here's the changes from OAG for BDL and PVD this week.

B6 BDL-MCO MAY 3>2[2]
F9 BDL-MCO MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.2[0]
F9 BDL-RDU MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
SY BNA-PVD APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.4[0]
SY MSP-PVD APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.4[0]
VC BDL-PIT JUL 0>0.2[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]

kearnet wrote:

Rick Dyment is out as long time LEB manager

https://www.unionleader.com/news/local/ ... _id=664693

Oh, gosh .. not Rick Dyment! … Not Rick !

BDL - NOV 18 Update

final data: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE
source data: http://www.bradleyairport.com/wp-conten ... umbers.pdf

Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.

Month
Total Pax 568,288 4.2% up over 2017, (inbound 282,649 up 3.6%, outbound 285,639 up 4.8%)
2014 vs 2018 up 18.2% from 480,586 to 568,288

Up
B6 6.8% to 71,460 (4,500 increase)
NK 68.8% to 42,856 (17,467 increase)
UA 14.9% to 66,337 (8,606 increase)
EI 7% to 4,779 (311 increase)

Down
AA 3% to 133,509 (4,177 decrease)
DL 0.3% to 111,026 (384 decrease)
WN 0.4% to 134,203 (552 decrease)
DY - gone (1,831 decrease)
AC - 14.6% to 4,118 (703 decrease)
.
In terms of market share:
WN flipped to #1, but only by 700 or so, that said AA are decreasing way quicker, so I expect this to stay the same.
everyone else stayed in the same spots as 2017. NK and B6 have picked up share vs the others


YTD

Total Pax 6,130,687 3.7% up over 2017, (inbound 3,070,743 up 3.8%, outbound 3,059,944 up 3.7%)
2014 vs 2018 up 13.9% from 5,382,624 to 6.130,687

Up
NK - 191.8% to 428,492 (281,623 increase)
UA - 10.1% to 710,654 (64,941 increase)
AC - 4.5% to 56,566 (2,460 increase)


Down
AA - 1% to 1,482,454 (15,377 decrease)
B6 - 2.6% to 772,631 (20,327 decrease)
DL - 1.4% to 1,164,430 (16,432 decrease) (domestic)
WN - 4.2% to 1,417,497 (62,368 decrease)
EI - 1.1% to 78,207 (853 decrease)
DY - gone 13,019 decrease


In terms of market share:
AA continues to hold #1 spot and with the rate of decline of WN, I see that continuing, although they have dropped 4.5% since 2014
WN is #2, they have dropped 5.9% since 2014, although right now they are in no danger of dropping to #3
DL #3 dropped 2% since 2014, no danger of dropping further, dropped 1% 2017 to 2018
B6 #4, increased share by 0.7%, outside risk of getting muscled out by #5 UA who are 62K pax behind and there was an 84k shift in 2017, UA up 0.7% on the year and 3.1% since 2014
NK have grabbed a 7% share inside 2 years, will be interesting to see what happens in 2019.

These numbers will move slightly in 19 because of DY clearing out after March 18


Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.657m pax which is 3.9% up on this time last year (248K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and just over 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018

AA - 1.6m (continued losses Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
NK- 500K
WN - 1.54m
Int - 160K

Approx guess: 6.66m

As ever, any questions, let me know.

VS4ever wrote:

BDL - NOV 18 Update

final data: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE
source data: http://www.bradleyairport.com/wp-conten ... umbers.pdf

Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.

Month
Total Pax 568,288 4.2% up over 2017, (inbound 282,649 up 3.6%, outbound 285,639 up 4.8%)
2014 vs 2018 up 18.2% from 480,586 to 568,288

Up
B6 6.8% to 71,460 (4,500 increase)
NK 68.8% to 42,856 (17,467 increase)
UA 14.9% to 66,337 (8,606 increase)
EI 7% to 4,779 (311 increase)

Down
AA 3% to 133,509 (4,177 decrease)
DL 0.3% to 111,026 (384 decrease)
WN 0.4% to 134,203 (552 decrease)
DY - gone (1,831 decrease)
AC - 14.6% to 4,118 (703 decrease)
.
In terms of market share:
WN flipped to #1, but only by 700 or so, that said AA are decreasing way quicker, so I expect this to stay the same.
everyone else stayed in the same spots as 2017. NK and B6 have picked up share vs the others


YTD

Total Pax 6,130,687 3.7% up over 2017, (inbound 3,070,743 up 3.8%, outbound 3,059,944 up 3.7%)
2014 vs 2018 up 13.9% from 5,382,624 to 6.130,687

Up
NK - 191.8% to 428,492 (281,623 increase)
UA - 10.1% to 710,654 (64,941 increase)
AC - 4.5% to 56,566 (2,460 increase)


Down
AA - 1% to 1,482,454 (15,377 decrease)
B6 - 2.6% to 772,631 (20,327 decrease)
DL - 1.4% to 1,164,430 (16,432 decrease) (domestic)
WN - 4.2% to 1,417,497 (62,368 decrease)
EI - 1.1% to 78,207 (853 decrease)
DY - gone 13,019 decrease


In terms of market share:
AA continues to hold #1 spot and with the rate of decline of WN, I see that continuing, although they have dropped 4.5% since 2014
WN is #2, they have dropped 5.9% since 2014, although right now they are in no danger of dropping to #3
DL #3 dropped 2% since 2014, no danger of dropping further, dropped 1% 2017 to 2018
B6 #4, increased share by 0.7%, outside risk of getting muscled out by #5 UA who are 62K pax behind and there was an 84k shift in 2017, UA up 0.7% on the year and 3.1% since 2014
NK have grabbed a 7% share inside 2 years, will be interesting to see what happens in 2019.

These numbers will move slightly in 19 because of DY clearing out after March 18


Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.657m pax which is 3.9% up on this time last year (248K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and just over 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018

AA - 1.6m (continued losses Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
NK- 500K
WN - 1.54m
Int - 160K

Approx guess: 6.66m

As ever, any questions, let me know.

As always, thanks for the great work! I look forward to the PVD analysis when you have it.

2019 may be the first year BDL hits 7 million passengers since 2005 record with F9 coming on board and continued 3-4% growth overall.

uconn99 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

BDL - NOV 18 Update

final data: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE
source data: http://www.bradleyairport.com/wp-conten ... umbers.pdf

Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.

Month
Total Pax 568,288 4.2% up over 2017, (inbound 282,649 up 3.6%, outbound 285,639 up 4.8%)
2014 vs 2018 up 18.2% from 480,586 to 568,288

Up
B6 6.8% to 71,460 (4,500 increase)
NK 68.8% to 42,856 (17,467 increase)
UA 14.9% to 66,337 (8,606 increase)
EI 7% to 4,779 (311 increase)

Down
AA 3% to 133,509 (4,177 decrease)
DL 0.3% to 111,026 (384 decrease)
WN 0.4% to 134,203 (552 decrease)
DY - gone (1,831 decrease)
AC - 14.6% to 4,118 (703 decrease)
.
In terms of market share:
WN flipped to #1, but only by 700 or so, that said AA are decreasing way quicker, so I expect this to stay the same.
everyone else stayed in the same spots as 2017. NK and B6 have picked up share vs the others


YTD

Total Pax 6,130,687 3.7% up over 2017, (inbound 3,070,743 up 3.8%, outbound 3,059,944 up 3.7%)
2014 vs 2018 up 13.9% from 5,382,624 to 6.130,687

Up
NK - 191.8% to 428,492 (281,623 increase)
UA - 10.1% to 710,654 (64,941 increase)
AC - 4.5% to 56,566 (2,460 increase)


Down
AA - 1% to 1,482,454 (15,377 decrease)
B6 - 2.6% to 772,631 (20,327 decrease)
DL - 1.4% to 1,164,430 (16,432 decrease) (domestic)
WN - 4.2% to 1,417,497 (62,368 decrease)
EI - 1.1% to 78,207 (853 decrease)
DY - gone 13,019 decrease


In terms of market share:
AA continues to hold #1 spot and with the rate of decline of WN, I see that continuing, although they have dropped 4.5% since 2014
WN is #2, they have dropped 5.9% since 2014, although right now they are in no danger of dropping to #3
DL #3 dropped 2% since 2014, no danger of dropping further, dropped 1% 2017 to 2018
B6 #4, increased share by 0.7%, outside risk of getting muscled out by #5 UA who are 62K pax behind and there was an 84k shift in 2017, UA up 0.7% on the year and 3.1% since 2014
NK have grabbed a 7% share inside 2 years, will be interesting to see what happens in 2019.

These numbers will move slightly in 19 because of DY clearing out after March 18


Rolling

Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.657m pax which is 3.9% up on this time last year (248K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and just over 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018

AA - 1.6m (continued losses Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
NK- 500K
WN - 1.54m
Int - 160K

Approx guess: 6.66m

As ever, any questions, let me know.

As always, thanks for the great work! I look forward to the PVD analysis when you have it.

2019 may be the first year BDL hits 7 million passengers since 2005 record with F9 coming on board and continued 3-4% growth overall.

based on the 6.66m number, 4% get you to 6.92m, my concern with hitting 7m is the growth in 18 has come entirely from NK and UA, it would be interesting to do an analysis of NK's YOY flying to see how much it's planning to grow, it's going to take on of the others to flip and grow in order to do that.

That said I would be delighted if it were to happen

am I missing something...just tried to book a WN flight to FLL and neither BDL nor PVD (or ISP for that matter) have N/S during the week in July. If this is truly the case, I cannot remember the last time WN didn't fly at least a token daily flight in the summer on these routes.

jco613 wrote:

am I missing something...just tried to book a WN flight to FLL and neither BDL nor PVD (or ISP for that matter) have N/S during the week in July. If this is truly the case, I cannot remember the last time WN didn't fly at least a token daily flight in the summer on these routes.

FLL is doing a major runway project on the north runway this summer which cuts the airport's capacity in half and creates the longest taxi times for WN due to their location on the airport. PVD-FLL will still run sat/sun and I assume the same is true for BDL

RL757PVD wrote:

jco613 wrote:

am I missing something...just tried to book a WN flight to FLL and neither BDL nor PVD (or ISP for that matter) have N/S during the week in July. If this is truly the case, I cannot remember the last time WN didn't fly at least a token daily flight in the summer on these routes.

FLL is doing a major runway project on the north runway this summer which cuts the airport's capacity in half and creates the longest taxi times for WN due to their location on the airport. PVD-FLL will still run sat/sun and I assume the same is true for BDL

ah...makes sense

Maybe PWM will get some more winter tourists coming to visit the Westbrook ice disc...maybe they’ll start coming nonstop from ICEland. (Terrible pub and totally in jest) http://time.com/5504483/ice-circle-maine/

Connecticut aviation authority looking to operate HVN. https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 539674.php

PVD update, they released Oct and November together, so I am going to do my analysis on November, note that as far as I can tell, October was similar in pattern to November and was down year over year.
Reminder, Cargo is omitted because 2016 is screwed up, so I can't do longer term comparatives. If 2019 continues to report them ok, I will start doing a 3 year analysis, 17/18/19 when those numbers start getting released.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V10vY ... 8tUN1vCxs4

Usual analysis, Nov 18 is the last month currently available:
Month vs Month (2014, thru 2018)
QTD (Q4 for 2014 thru 2018
YTD (Jan to Nov - 2014 thru 2018)
Year (2012 thru 2017)
Rolling (Dec to Nov)


Month

Summary:
177,079 Outbound, down 5.8% from 17
175,486 Inbound, also down 5.8% from 17
352,565 total, down 5.8% from 374,265 in 2017

Highlights

AA - up 11.9% from 80,801 to 90,437 (17 to 18), up 31.5% from 2014 (68,758) with 33% increases in mainline and PSA flying Year over Year
UA - up 27.9% from 24,172 to 30,925 (17 to 18), up 67.3% from 2014 (18,486) increase driven by Mesa flying Year over Year

Lowlights

DL - down 3.7% from 37,736 to 36,355 (17 to 18), down 7.6% from 2014 (39,348) driven by a 24.5% decrease in mainline flying, offset by regional flying.
F9 - down 50.3% from 41,538 to 20,660 (17 to 18)
G4 - down 15.4% from 5,882 to 4,978 (17 to 18)
WN - down 6.2% from 147,636 to 138,436 (17 to 18), up 6.6% from 2014 (129,854)
D8 -down 30.4% from 10,696 to 7,445 (17 to 18)

Market Share

The shares are all over the place from 17 to 18
#1 WN - 39.3% which is the clear leader, but down from 46% in 2014.
#2 AA - Cemented their place with 25.7%, which is up 4.1% from last year, and 1.2% from 2014.
#3 DL - despite their drop, they hold at 10.3% share due to bigger drops elsewhere, up from 10.1% last year but down from 14% in 2014
#4 UA - 8.8% up from 6.5% due to their increase and drops elsewhere, and up from 6.6% in 2014.
#5 B6 - up to 6.3% despite their small drop in pax but down from 8.1% in 2014
#6 F9 - share collapsed from 11.1% to 5.9% as a result of their big reduction


YTD

Summary:
1,991,315 Outbound, up 11% from 17
1,996,722 Inbound, up 11.1% from 17
3,988,037 up 11% total from 3,591,695 in 2017

Highlights

AA - up 4.3% from 886,810 to 925,191 (17 to 18), up 14.4% from 2014 (808,694) biggest increases coming in Mainline (61K) and PSA (22K) offset by Republic
UA - up 15.1% from 245,744 to 282,793 (17 to 18), down 4.1% from 2014 (294,822) biggest increases in Wisconsin, Mesa and Trans States offset by Skywest and Commutair
F9 - up 256K year over year, despite the huge drop in November noted above
G4 - up 57K year over year, small drop in November
D8 -up 98K year over year.

Lowlights

DL - down 1.2% from 413,960 to 408,960 (17 to 18), down 3.4% from 2014 (423,361) driven by increases in Skywest, Trans States & Endeavor, offset by Mainline
B6 - down 9.8% from 240,343 to 216,895 (17 to 18), down 10.8% from 2014 (243,167)
WN - down 3.3% from 1,568,173 to 1,516,476 (17 to 18), up 1.5% from 2014 (1,494,131)
VR - gone, down 18K

Market Share

#1 WN - 38.0% which is the clear leader, but down from 45.5% in 2014 and 43.7% in 2017
#2 AA - definitive #2 with 23.2%, which is down 1.5% from last year, and 1.4% from 2014.
#3 DL - 10.3%, down from 11.5% in 17 and 12.9% in 2014, could be at risk of losing this spot if F9 grow again in 2019, but the November drop puts that more in doubt
#4 F9 - 9.1% up from 3% due to their huge increases and drops elsewhere, but Nov collapsed
#5 UA - up to 7.1% from 6.8% but down from 9% in 2014 and F9 flying past them in 2018
#6 B6 - down 1.3% from 17 and 2% from 2014, their reductions mean they are more at risk from dropping behind international than overhauling UA.

Current rolling # is 4.3m, despite the reversals of Oct and Nov is still above 4m for the first time with 11.7% growth, my guess for a year end number will be in this 4.3m to 4,4m range.

DL is going mainline PWM-LGA starting in spring. A319 overnighting at PWM for the early morning flight to New York. Looks like they're still keeping the same frequencies. 4x daily PWM-LGA 3x daily PWM-JFK

^ Good news. Looks like DL will be utilizing a daily mainline (717/319) from PWM-DTW starting in April also. This will be an improvement over the occasional 717 we sometimes get during the summer and fall.

This was mentioned on another discussion, but it seems worth noting here that Frontier will be starting BTV-DEN in February in addition to MCO. It looks like it is 2x/week for a couple of weeks in February, 1x/week for April and May and then 3x/week through the summer.

It also looks like a third weekly MCO flight has been added for the spring break period in March.

mjgbtv wrote:

This was mentioned on another discussion, but it seems worth noting here that Frontier will be starting BTV-DEN in February in addition to MCO. It looks like it is 2x/week for a couple of weeks in February, 1x/week for April and May and then 3x/week through the summer.

It also looks like a third weekly MCO flight has been added for the spring break period in March.

The DEN flight starts 5/1. The earlier dates you see are via a MCO connection.

And seems like MCO is doing well, enough for them to expand the BTV market to DEN and expanding MCO too.

Hopefully MCO continues to grow and maybe TPA added down the road.

I doubt anyone will respond, but would love to see UA do DEN or IAH.

I'd love to see UA respond too, but I don't have any expectations of that.

Why IAH? I don't think there's any real demand there. There is demand for DFW though, but AA has been retrenching, not growing, so they're unlikely to add a route.

I wonder how many Quebec travelers the F9 flights are pulling? We all know Quebec travels (at least those that travel to BTV, or PBG for that matter) are very price-sensitive so F9 is probably able to find a market that BTV would otherwise not be able to serve. I do not believe the DEN flight will cannibalize UA at BTV. Not too are willing to take a 28" seat just to save $50-$100. Unlike B6, F9 is reaching a totally different market.

It's good to see F9 expanding at BTV, but I hope it doesn't push B6 out like it did at PWM. Losing Jetblue, even seasonally, would be very bad news for BTV. F9 would become the only LCC to operate at Burlington. PWM at least has WN.

btvhopper wrote:

Not too are willing to take a 28" seat just to save $50-$100. Unlike B6, F9 is reaching a totally different market.

I don't know - for me personally? The 28" seat is really just as uncomfortable as the 30-31" pitch on DL/AA aircraft without the slimlines, and I'll gladly take that for a 3-4 hour nonstop from DEN over stopping in ATL/CLT to the Northeast. I did DEN-PWM twice last year and even with a fairly lengthy delay, it was better than my usual stops way out of the way

The only thing I wish about F9 were that the operation were more reliable - especially over the summer.

Great marquee route for BTV, they're longest scheduled route ever, by far. Also stands a good chance of giving BTV its first A320 NEO service.

btvhopper wrote:

We all know Quebec travels (at least those that travel to BTV, or PBG for that matter) are very price-sensitive so F9 is probably able to find a market that BTV would otherwise not be able to serve.

Here's hoping Frontier succeeds where Allegiant failed. From what I understand about Allegiant's business model, they want to sell vacation packages first and foremost, with airfare just one part of the bundle, and if package sales aren't up to standard then they will cut and run, even if the airfare receipts are respectable. Frontier, on the other hand, wants to be an airline first and foremost. Perhaps this difference will give BTV a better chance with Frontier. Will be interesting to watch.

Why IAH? I only mention IAH because if they launch DEN, one of them eventually drop the route and/or both. BTV can't just support that type of demand to DEN. IAH would be UA's next logical choice to capture the E-W, MW-S market that ORD doesn't always supply.

As for Canada, I think this route will do just fine by itself with local demand, local meaning VT based. Canada will just be an extra drop in the bucket. But it being, to start off with, a winter market, doesn't really hint at much of Canada flying to DEN during the winter. They already have Mont Tremblant and VT ski areas.

I think F9 will win in this market, have always said that. F9 and BTV always were a match made in heaven. I think they will overtake NK too, mainly because NK has terrible flight times and has yet to expand to key NK markets, aka MCO.

B595 wrote:

Great marquee route for BTV, they're longest scheduled route ever, by far. Also stands a good chance of giving BTV its first A320 NEO service.

btvhopper wrote:

We all know Quebec travels (at least those that travel to BTV, or PBG for that matter) are very price-sensitive so F9 is probably able to find a market that BTV would otherwise not be able to serve.

Here's hoping Frontier succeeds where Allegiant failed. From what I understand about Allegiant's business model, they want to sell vacation packages first and foremost, with airfare just one part of the bundle, and if package sales aren't up to standard then they will cut and run, even if the airfare receipts are respectable. Frontier, on the other hand, wants to be an airline first and foremost. Perhaps this difference will give BTV a better chance with Frontier. Will be interesting to watch.

Allegiant was also competing with themselves at PBG, and there is probably too much overlap in the catchment area for both to do well for them.

The thing about Frontier, at least in my view, is that they aren't reluctant to ditch routes that 'underperform.' The worst case scenario is that Frontier does as people fear...they push JetBlue out. Then, they leave themselves.

chrisnh wrote:

The thing about Frontier, at least in my view, is that they aren't reluctant to ditch routes that 'underperform.' The worst case scenario is that Frontier does as people fear...they push JetBlue out. Then, they leave themselves.

I kinda feel the same way. Plus they must thrash the yields at the airport?

Would anyone with insights on PWM be able to explain how the F9 DEN service is doing?

Right now, the BTV-DEN flight is 3x weekly year-round. It seems like F9 is constantly dropping/adding routes. I'm just curious, what's the status of the PWM route? Was it first marketed as seasonal or year-round, and have they upped the frequency?

I don't have any data to back up, but I would guess that a majority of B6's customer base at BTV is O&D w/ JFK rather than connections. As far as connections I would guess most BTV-based B6 passengers are headed to the west coast; many redeye options from JFK to SFO and SEA, which are popular destinations from BTV.

I am cautiously optimistic that the JFK/west cost-oriented B6 flights at BTV are different enough from F9 O&D flights to DEN and MCO that the two carriers will compliment and coexist with one another rather than cannibalize each other.