tphuang
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:49 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

I wonder if they could utilize a RON frame from BOS, have it go out late at night, RON at either BGR or BTV for an early morning departure back to BOS, kind of like B6 is doing with ORH-JFK, cheaper parking and extra utilization might allow a lower load requirement than normal.


Seems like the biggest issue with that would be the availability of gate space at BOS, which is pretty tight during the morning rush.


True, but in theory you are taking 2 flights out of the equation until they get back from those stations, I still don't think DL have built everything out for 21 gates yet, so never say never. But it is a consideration, I grant you.


I think BOS-BTV is not out of the question for B6 if it RON at BTV. that would depend on how much longer E90 sticks around. But seeing the yields on similar routes like SYR/ROC, I'm not convinced there is a business case here for BTV. BOS is certainly gate constrained right now and possibly slot constrained in a few years. BOS is just more of an O&D heavy station. And this applies to DL also. DL already captures connection traffic through other stations. Not enough O&D for this to make sense. I'd think 9K would be the only one that makes sense here if anyone tries.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:16 pm

Fex180 wrote:
This probably isn't of interest to anyone other than people who have connections to northern Maine, but UA's EAS contract for EWR-PQI will be ending in mid 2020. Performance-wise, that route isn't doing well for either pax numbers or on-time performance (a combination of congestion at EWR and frequently bad weather at PQI) I wonder if UA will extend the contract, or if another carrier might be interested. Maybe DL would consider PQI-BOS? I know that DL has flown BGR-BOS in the past. Could be an easy feeder route for them as they continue to build up BOS



DL did indeed use to fly DC-9'-30's on BOS-PWM/BGR-PQI decades ago. BOS-PQI also was served for many years through the 1990's on Business Express/Delta Connection. ( NW Airlink also flew BOS-PQI, PWM-PQI and AUG-PQI in the early 1990s. Even a Sunday only flight PWM-YQB).

There's not much up there, and not much demand or reason to to go that's not served by the EAS system. Maybe if Loring Air Force Base was still open. When that closed in 1994, thousands of people left.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:01 pm

I think Delta is really the most likely for BTV-BOS. Morning BTV-BOS, late evening BOS-BTV. It would allow people to do business and still fly home,and connections both directions. Delta is the best fit IMHO.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:57 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I think Delta is really the most likely for BTV-BOS. Morning BTV-BOS, late evening BOS-BTV. It would allow people to do business and still fly home,and connections both directions. Delta is the best fit IMHO.


BTV isn't really a big business destination. I think any flight to BOS would mostly be about connections and easier access for visitors to Vermont. I wouldn't be surprised if any BOS service started seasonal.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:54 pm

More Analysis for you.... this time from the airport numbers for MHT, PVD and BDL...

PVD: - Data thru July (Slackers)
File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V10vY9 ... sp=sharing

Bit of a mixture in the data thus far, YTD, AA is up 4.8%, B6 up 27.2%, DL up 9.2%, UA up 0.3% offset by Southwest down 12.4%, Frontier down 51.9%, Allegiant down 41.5% and International down 69.6% mostly because of Norwegian's pull out.
Overall down 9.5% and 238K (2,275,805)
Top 2 rankings for WN (857,378) and AA (584,463) are unchanged, but as noted above, AA is on the way up, WN is on the way down, even though it's #1 by a considerable margin.
#3 is now DL (262,331) up from #4,
#4 is now B6 (181,864) up from #6
#5 is still UA (159,467)
#6 is now F9 (124,945)
Sun Country has debuted at #8, although should flip ahead of International at #7 with only a 5K difference between the two.

Based on current rolling averages and performance to date, I am estimating 3.9m for the year vs 4.3m last year. down 8.3% with a similar set up to that noted above.

BDL - Data thru September

File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B61t8C ... sp=sharing

Another mixture here, B6 the big winners with 11.9% growth (58,480), F9 with 45,982 from a standing start, DL next with 6.4% (45,439) and NK with 14.6% but (38,901 passenger increase), offset by WN down 6% (54,673), UA down 4.7% (19,707), AA down 0.2% (2,276) and International 4.1% (3,787)

Overall YTD up by 2.7% (3,933,728 vs 3,829,286) - 104K

Top 2 rankings remain the same AA is #1 (935,181) for a 23.8% share (down 0.7% because of the impact of F9 and others). WN is #2 (858,315) for a 21.8% share (down 2% share and thus the gap to AA is increasing)

#3 is DL (751,971) who are closing the gap on WN, but still have a way to go 19.1% share up 0.6%
#4 is B6 (549,573) who are pretty much cemented in this position, share is 14% up 1.2%
#5 is UA (398,912) pretty comfortable ahead of NK, but the gap is closing.. share is 10.1% down 0.8%
#6 is NK (305,092) up to 7.8% share (up 0.8%) and as noted closing the gap on UA, but have a way to go.
#7 is International (88,265) drops for D8 (pull out) and DL off set by a slight uptick for AC
#8 is F9 with 45,982 from a standing start,

Based on my current estimate, I expect BDL to run 6.8m this year vs just under 6.7m last year. the drops in WN and UA are dragging everything down sadly.


MHT - The world goes down, down down - Data thru September

File Location: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19v-Fdg ... sp=sharing

AA is the only shining light up 20K YTD (5.6%), everyone else is down DL 15% (29,368), UA 33% (32,748) and WN 9.3% (69,912)

Overall YTD is 1,289,148 vs 1,402,041 and nearly 1.6m in 2014 as a comparative.

WN is still the out and out number 1 (684,802) and a 53.1% share of the market, down 0.7%
#2 is AA, who as a result of other movements and it's own increases (373,063) moved up from 25.2% to 28.9% share so far this year
#3 is DL (166,025) moved down from 13.9% to 12.9%
#4 is UA (64,184) dropped from 6.9% to 5% share.

My current estimate is 1,7m for the year vs 1.9m for 2018, which equates to an 11% drop overall.

Cargo

A bright spot for MHT is the amount of cargo continues to climb, YTD, 5.5m lbs extra at 140m, As you can imagine the Big 2 take most of it, but it's not even UPS is up 4.5m lbs (6%) to 78.5m, FX mainline up 827K to 56.1m and Wiggins (FX) - 305K up 6.8%

Rough Estimate for 2019 year is 193.3m lbs up 4% from 185.8m last year
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:27 am

How is UA's MHT-IAD going?? That's their only route from MHT now, and if that underperforms they may abandon Manchester entirely (or perhaps go seasonal)
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:21 am

Fex180 wrote:
How is UA's MHT-IAD going?? That's their only route from MHT now, and if that underperforms they may abandon Manchester entirely (or perhaps go seasonal)


Posted the ytd numbers above but pulling 78% as far as I can tell on average, not dead yet.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:10 pm

I don't know if this is an error in F9's schedule, or a temporary bump, but all of F9's PWM-Florida routes are loaded as daily starting in the second week of April. Could be a temporary increase to meet spring break travel demand?
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:13 pm

I think it’s the April vacation bump because it happens to PVD RSW as well (Orlando is already daily), I don’t think it happens for TPA though
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:55 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
I think it’s the April vacation bump because it happens to PVD RSW as well (Orlando is already daily), I don’t think it happens for TPA though


That makes sense, although I am seeing PWM-TPA loaded as daily for at least part of April.

It also looks like PWM-RSW has been bumped up to 4x weekly for the whole winter. Originally it was loaded in as 3x weekly.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:17 pm

Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
I think it’s the April vacation bump because it happens to PVD RSW as well (Orlando is already daily), I don’t think it happens for TPA though


That makes sense, although I am seeing PWM-TPA loaded as daily for at least part of April.

It also looks like PWM-RSW has been bumped up to 4x weekly for the whole winter. Originally it was loaded in as 3x weekly.


If they did they probably swapped it with a day from TPA... for PVD and PWM it’s a split aircraft (3x and 4x) then each have one go daily during April vacation
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:06 am

There are a few days in April where F9 has 2x MCO as well.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:22 am

UA has loaded in their summer schedule. PWM-DEN is daily with an A319 starting in June. BTV-DEN is loaded as weekend only with an A319
 
maximairways
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:45 pm

UA BDL-DEN MAY 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
UA BDL-IAH MAY 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]


Looks like UA is going double daily on DEN and IAH for the summer next year. Was hoping for a return of SFO, but this is good too.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:42 am

BTV-CLT going 3x daily per latest OAG thread.

Only a matter of time before mainline is on that route full-time.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:46 am

Hoping PVD can get in on some of expanded summer offerings.
 
Novaboy2525
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:04 am

maximairways wrote:
UA BDL-DEN MAY 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
UA BDL-IAH MAY 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUN 1.0>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]


Looks like UA is going double daily on DEN and IAH for the summer next year. Was hoping for a return of SFO, but this is good too.

Yea, I agree this is a pretty good deal. I dont think UA has ever run double daily to Den, and I know it certainly hasn't to Houston. Its looks like it is on the E175 , was hoping to see a mainline on one of the flights but I don't think UA has ever run mainline to IAH from BDL . I know Continental did for a bit but i think that flight may have been seasonal. Any additional information is appreciated.
 
BTV290
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:20 am

Great news out of BTV:
https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ ... d-terminal

Consolidated security checkpoint will happen sooner than originally expected due to this grant.
For those familiar with the terminal, the entrance to the security checkpoint will be where "The Chubby Muffin" currently is. Six TSA lanes with dedicated PreCheck. Once through, passengers headed to south gates will double back and turn right into the south concourse. Passengers headed to north gates will take escalators up to the second level and walk to the north concourse through the now secure-side admin hallway. The addition will abut the airport road and flank the existing south concourse from "behind". When the airport is eventually extended further south, the second floor of this new extension will become gate space and the current south concourse will be torn down, to allow for longer aircraft to park without obstructing the taxiway behind them.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:13 pm

BTV290 wrote:
Great news out of BTV:
https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ ... d-terminal

Consolidated security checkpoint will happen sooner than originally expected due to this grant.
For those familiar with the terminal, the entrance to the security checkpoint will be where "The Chubby Muffin" currently is. Six TSA lanes with dedicated PreCheck. Once through, passengers headed to south gates will double back and turn right into the south concourse. Passengers headed to north gates will take escalators up to the second level and walk to the north concourse through the now secure-side admin hallway. The addition will abut the airport road and flank the existing south concourse from "behind". When the airport is eventually extended further south, the second floor of this new extension will become gate space and the current south concourse will be torn down, to allow for longer aircraft to park without obstructing the taxiway behind them.


I love that covered bridge styled terminal! I wonder if that is the real thing or just a concept?
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:13 am

mjgbtv wrote:
BTV290 wrote:
Great news out of BTV:

I love that covered bridge styled terminal! I wonder if that is the real thing or just a concept?

Reminds me of a dairy barn. And I’m not implying that’s a bad thing. The design is good at evoking Vermont.
 
tomaheath
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:29 pm

PWM gets Saturday service to BNA next summer on WN.
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:05 pm

Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas/Fort Worth and now Nashville, the new seasonal options out of PWM continue to improve!
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:09 pm

tomaheath wrote:
PWM gets Saturday service to BNA next summer on WN.


and MDW is going from Sat-only to Saturday and Sunday. Not a huge bump (surprised that route isn't daily)

but never in my life would I have expected BNA.

Additionally, the Jetport is constructing 3 new jetbridges on the western end of the terminal. These will be dedicated AA gates, and the layout of the western departures area will shift a bit.

AA will have a total of 5 gates at PWM once the new jetbridges are added, and DL will have 3.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:18 pm

Portlander wrote:
Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas/Fort Worth and now Nashville, the new seasonal options out of PWM continue to improve!


I'd be worried if PWM really has that much westbound demand in the weekends on the summer, 1,000 + seats for west of the Mississippi every Saturday is a lot for a smaller market.

My bet is they wanted to prevent G4 from trying BNA at PSM.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
RKDFlier
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:24 pm

I never profesed to be perfict
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:51 pm

PWM's net gain will only be two jetways (12 and 14) and they will be connected to the terminal by an enclosed elevated corridor, final design and costs are still being determined. The current Gate 11 jetway is being retired and replaced with a new one for a grand total of 12 jetways along with an additional "regional" loading bridge with two gates (1A and 1B) on the eastern end of the concourse.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:52 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Portlander wrote:
Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas/Fort Worth and now Nashville, the new seasonal options out of PWM continue to improve!


I'd be worried if PWM really has that much westbound demand in the weekends on the summer, 1,000 + seats for west of the Mississippi every Saturday is a lot for a smaller market.

My bet is they wanted to prevent G4 from trying BNA at PSM.


Conversely, I would say that from October-May PWM has a deficiency of westbound capacity. The only year round westbound routes are DL to DTW and UA to ORD. The largest carrier at the jetport (AA) has virtually no year-round westbound lift
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:58 pm

Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Portlander wrote:
Denver, Minneapolis, Dallas/Fort Worth and now Nashville, the new seasonal options out of PWM continue to improve!


I'd be worried if PWM really has that much westbound demand in the weekends on the summer, 1,000 + seats for west of the Mississippi every Saturday is a lot for a smaller market.

My bet is they wanted to prevent G4 from trying BNA at PSM.


Conversely, I would say that from October-May PWM has a deficiency of westbound capacity. The only year round westbound routes are DL to DTW and UA to ORD. The largest carrier at the jetport (AA) has virtually no year-round westbound lift


Except they need to make money on routes when demand is highest in order to grow the route into year round... if you lose money because of a bloodbath in the peak, that problem will never be solved.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:07 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

I'd be worried if PWM really has that much westbound demand in the weekends on the summer, 1,000 + seats for west of the Mississippi every Saturday is a lot for a smaller market.

My bet is they wanted to prevent G4 from trying BNA at PSM.


Conversely, I would say that from October-May PWM has a deficiency of westbound capacity. The only year round westbound routes are DL to DTW and UA to ORD. The largest carrier at the jetport (AA) has virtually no year-round westbound lift


Except they need to make money on routes when demand is highest in order to grow the route into year round... if you lose money because of a bloodbath in the peak, that problem will never be solved.


Some of these new summer routes see definitely never intended to be year round. AA to ORD? definitey could go year round. UA to DEN? Also a year round possibly. But WN to BNA? SY to MSP? No way those will ever continue past October.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:12 pm

Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:

Conversely, I would say that from October-May PWM has a deficiency of westbound capacity. The only year round westbound routes are DL to DTW and UA to ORD. The largest carrier at the jetport (AA) has virtually no year-round westbound lift


Except they need to make money on routes when demand is highest in order to grow the route into year round... if you lose money because of a bloodbath in the peak, that problem will never be solved.


Some of these new summer routes see definitely never intended to be year round. AA to ORD? definitey could go year round. UA to DEN? Also a year round possibly. But WN to BNA? SY to MSP? No way those will ever continue past October.

For sure... but if everyone loses money this summer, will they be back next summer? As opposed to a slower build up with a bunch of stuff that can be sustained and grow from there. It makes it really hard for a new Entrant like SY to succeed when there is a 400% increase in westbound service on incumbent airlines.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:21 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

Except they need to make money on routes when demand is highest in order to grow the route into year round... if you lose money because of a bloodbath in the peak, that problem will never be solved.


Some of these new summer routes see definitely never intended to be year round. AA to ORD? definitey could go year round. UA to DEN? Also a year round possibly. But WN to BNA? SY to MSP? No way those will ever continue past October.

For sure... but if everyone loses money this summer, will they be back next summer? As opposed to a slower build up with a bunch of stuff that can be sustained and grow from there. It makes it really hard for a new Entrant like SY to succeed when there is a 400% increase in westbound service on incumbent airlines.


I definitely think there is a PWM "bubble" as much as I route for my home airport, this growth seems like too much too fast. some of these adds seem questionable and unsustainable with even the slightest dip in demand.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:36 pm

Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:

Some of these new summer routes see definitely never intended to be year round. AA to ORD? definitey could go year round. UA to DEN? Also a year round possibly. But WN to BNA? SY to MSP? No way those will ever continue past October.

For sure... but if everyone loses money this summer, will they be back next summer? As opposed to a slower build up with a bunch of stuff that can be sustained and grow from there. It makes it really hard for a new Entrant like SY to succeed when there is a 400% increase in westbound service on incumbent airlines.


I definitely think there is a PWM "bubble" as much as I route for my home airport, this growth seems like too much too fast. some of these adds seem questionable and unsustainable with even the slightest dip in demand.


That's what happened to PVD 3 years ago.. sure traffic has been down 8-10% the past two years, but thats the byproduct of growing 20-25% in a single year when normal growth for the region is 2-2,5%

I personally think theres a BOS bubble too with way too many routes with 3-4 carriers that really should only have 2

The PWM bubble isnt too big though... I'd be worried about SY then AA-DFW for next year. DEN may see some rationalization between UA and F9 and With only 10-12 total flights I suspect WN will keep PWM-BNA in the summer if thats what it takes to keep G4 off PSM-BNA.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:40 pm

PVD had the same issue. Too much new capacity in too short of a time versus a steady buildup where the market could absorb the new seats.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:41 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
For sure... but if everyone loses money this summer, will they be back next summer? As opposed to a slower build up with a bunch of stuff that can be sustained and grow from there. It makes it really hard for a new Entrant like SY to succeed when there is a 400% increase in westbound service on incumbent airlines.


I definitely think there is a PWM "bubble" as much as I route for my home airport, this growth seems like too much too fast. some of these adds seem questionable and unsustainable with even the slightest dip in demand.


That's what happened to PVD 3 years ago.. sure traffic has been down 8-10% the past two years, but thats the byproduct of growing 20-25% in a single year when normal growth for the region is 2-2,5%

I personally think theres a BOS bubble too with way too many routes with 3-4 carriers that really should only have 2

The PWM bubble isnt too big though... I'd be worried about SY then AA-DFW for next year. DEN may see some rationalization between UA and F9 and With only 10-12 total flights I suspect WN will keep PWM-BNA in the summer if thats what it takes to keep G4 off PSM-BNA.


I suspect AA PWM-DFW will stick around partially because there is some O&D business demand on that route and because I wouldn't be surprised if AA wants to protect its dominance at PWM . They seem to care about the jetport a lot more than other markets of similar size
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3088
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:47 pm

Fex180 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:

I definitely think there is a PWM "bubble" as much as I route for my home airport, this growth seems like too much too fast. some of these adds seem questionable and unsustainable with even the slightest dip in demand.


That's what happened to PVD 3 years ago.. sure traffic has been down 8-10% the past two years, but thats the byproduct of growing 20-25% in a single year when normal growth for the region is 2-2,5%

I personally think theres a BOS bubble too with way too many routes with 3-4 carriers that really should only have 2

The PWM bubble isnt too big though... I'd be worried about SY then AA-DFW for next year. DEN may see some rationalization between UA and F9 and With only 10-12 total flights I suspect WN will keep PWM-BNA in the summer if thats what it takes to keep G4 off PSM-BNA.


I suspect AA PWM-DFW will stick around partially because there is some business demand on that route and because I wouldn't be surprised if AA wants to protect its dominance at PWM . They seem to care about the jetport a lot more than other markets of similar size


Businesses aren't using flights on a summer Saturday afternoon....

If they want to go after the business crowd they can start with more two-class products on trunk routes like PHL

FWIW... PWM is the easiest city for me to upgrade on being only Gold on AA... PVD im usually somewhere in the teens on the upgrade list.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Fex180
Posts: 270
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:11 pm

On the theme of "too much westbound lift" It's now confirmed that UA is going daily with PWM-DEN from June through early September on an A319.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... ce4a13407b

A good sign, and the first step to true year-round service. It will be interesting to see how F9 PWM-DEN fares this summer with daily direct competition. They'll have a hard time keeping up with 3x weekly flights.
 
btvhopper
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:36 pm

Fex180 wrote:
On the theme of "too much westbound lift" It's now confirmed that UA is going daily with PWM-DEN from June through early September on an A319.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... ce4a13407b

A good sign, and the first step to true year-round service. It will be interesting to see how F9 PWM-DEN fares this summer with daily direct competition. They'll have a hard time keeping up with 3x weekly flights.


PWM would need to be upgraded to a mainline station (UGE right now) before the PWM-DEN service becomes year round as they're not going to be flying E-175's on that. That seems to be the biggest hurdle for this service to ever become year-round.

F9's prices are still wayyyy lower. Totally different market niche. F9's customers are much more price-sensitive. I think these two routes compliment each other more than compete with one another.

And I agree with the comments on DFW. That's absolutely ridiculous to think that business travel will help support that route. No, it's Saturday-only and entirely for leisure travels. There are a lot of well-heeled New Englanders who moved to Dallas to work in the finance industry, but likely vacationed on the Maine coast over the summer when they were younger and want to return with their families. I'm sure that's the target market. Business travel is also slowest in the summer. The leisure travel market is what dominates PWM and that is why PWM is impacted the most by seasonality of all airports in our region (obv. excl. ACK, etc).
 
Fex180
Posts: 270
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:52 pm

btvhopper wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
On the theme of "too much westbound lift" It's now confirmed that UA is going daily with PWM-DEN from June through early September on an A319.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article ... ce4a13407b

A good sign, and the first step to true year-round service. It will be interesting to see how F9 PWM-DEN fares this summer with daily direct competition. They'll have a hard time keeping up with 3x weekly flights.


PWM would need to be upgraded to a mainline station (UGE right now) before the PWM-DEN service becomes year round as they're not going to be flying E-175's on that. That seems to be the biggest hurdle for this service to ever become year-round.

F9's prices are still wayyyy lower. Totally different market niche. F9's customers are much more price-sensitive. I think these two routes compliment each other more than compete with one another.

And I agree with the comments on DFW. That's absolutely ridiculous to think that business travel will help support that route. No, it's Saturday-only and entirely for leisure travels. There are a lot of well-heeled New Englanders who moved to Dallas to work in the finance industry, but likely vacationed on the Maine coast over the summer when they were younger and want to return with their families. I'm sure that's the target market. Business travel is also slowest in the summer. The leisure travel market is what dominates PWM and that is why PWM is impacted the most by seasonality of all airports in our region (obv. excl. ACK, etc).


I believe PWM already is a mainline station for UA. they regularly send mainline equipment from EWR all year.

I would agree that a Saturday seasonal flight doesn't scream business travel. But there are several decently sized firms headquartered in Portland with significant operations in the DFW area, or vice versa. As someone who works in one of those firms, I can say that many people in my office are very excited about the nonstop DFW flight. Is business demand on that route enough to justify a daily A319? absolutely not. But it is a factor. Additionally, AA has moved to 2-class equipment (with year round mainline to CLT and PHL) for basically all of its routes from Portland (Even LGA and DCA are almost exclusively on Republic E-175's now)
 
btvhopper
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:51 pm

PWM is definitely a UGE station and not a mainline station. I know that for fact.

Hell, you can even go on the UGE jobs website and see advertisements for rampworkers. Those would be United employees if it was a mainline station.
https://ual-pro.taleo.net/careersection ... tl?lang=en
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 1012
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:52 pm

So BTV seems to be adding fewer routes relative to size and growth than PWM. Could this reflect a more conservative approach by the airport or just be the way other factors play out? I know that airports have some influence over getting new routes, but I wonder if they could or would try to discourage new routes that they don't see as sustainable. BTV has certainly been very clear with the 'use it or lose it' message for the recent adds.
 
Fex180
Posts: 270
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:59 pm

btvhopper wrote:
PWM is definitely a UGE station and not a mainline station. I know that for fact.

Hell, you can even go on the UGE jobs website and see advertisements for rampworkers. Those would be United employees if it was a mainline station.
https://ual-pro.taleo.net/careersection ... tl?lang=en


But is that really a big hindrance to Year round mainline service? As I said, UA sends mainline metal from EWR all year.
 
btvhopper
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:29 pm

Fex180 wrote:
btvhopper wrote:
PWM is definitely a UGE station and not a mainline station. I know that for fact.

Hell, you can even go on the UGE jobs website and see advertisements for rampworkers. Those would be United employees if it was a mainline station.
https://ual-pro.taleo.net/careersection ... tl?lang=en


But is that really a big hindrance to Year round mainline service? As I said, UA sends mainline metal from EWR all year.


First of all PWM-EWR is *not* mainline year-round. I'm not sure why you're saying that as a quick glance at UA's schedule shows no mainline (even going all the way out to next June/July). In fact there's not even any two-class aircraft, looks like 4-5x daily E145's for the next few months. There's no PWM mainline on UA's schedule until a single frequency to ORD on May 10th.

Now, getting back to the discussion on seasonality. Looking at enplanement data you can see how much more demand PWM has in the summer vs MHT or BTV. PWM sees a 90%-120% increase in pax from from low (Jan/Feb) to peak (July/Aug) seasons. This can really only be attributed to leisure travel to Maine as a destination.

I also work for a company in the Burlington area with duel-headquarters in the DFW metroplex....I travel there ~every two months for works, my boss about every month; everyone still drives down to Boston to get one of the dozens of daily directs. I don't see that changing with infrequent, weekend seasonal service. That service is clearly geared towards leisure travelers from Dallas heading to Maine.

Peak Low
2019 July August January Feb. Seasonal incr.
MHT 78,181 81,975 59,576 61,530 32%
BTV 71,381 71,381 46,356 49,867 48%
PWM 119,151 127,461 64,824 65,678 89%

2018 July August January Feb. Seasonal incr.
BTV 67,921 66,807 46,684 46,371 45%
PWM 122,194 130,339 56,272 57,672 122%
 
Fex180
Posts: 270
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:02 pm

btvhopper wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
btvhopper wrote:
PWM is definitely a UGE station and not a mainline station. I know that for fact.

Hell, you can even go on the UGE jobs website and see advertisements for rampworkers. Those would be United employees if it was a mainline station.
https://ual-pro.taleo.net/careersection ... tl?lang=en


But is that really a big hindrance to Year round mainline service? As I said, UA sends mainline metal from EWR all year.


First of all PWM-EWR is *not* mainline year-round. I'm not sure why you're saying that as a quick glance at UA's schedule shows no mainline (even going all the way out to next June/July). In fact there's not even any two-class aircraft, looks like 4-5x daily E145's for the next few months. There's no PWM mainline on UA's schedule until a single frequency to ORD on May 10th.

Now, getting back to the discussion on seasonality. Looking at enplanement data you can see how much more demand PWM has in the summer vs MHT or BTV. PWM sees a 90%-120% increase in pax from from low (Jan/Feb) to peak (July/Aug) seasons. This can really only be attributed to leisure travel to Maine as a destination.

I also work for a company in the Burlington area with duel-headquarters in the DFW metroplex....I travel there ~every two months for works, my boss about every month; everyone still drives down to Boston to get one of the dozens of daily directs. I don't see that changing with infrequent, weekend seasonal service. That service is clearly geared towards leisure travelers from Dallas heading to Maine.

Peak Low
2019 July August January Feb. Seasonal incr.
MHT 78,181 81,975 59,576 61,530 32%
BTV 71,381 71,381 46,356 49,867 48%
PWM 119,151 127,461 64,824 65,678 89%

2018 July August January Feb. Seasonal incr.
BTV 67,921 66,807 46,684 46,371 45%
PWM 122,194 130,339 56,272 57,672 122%


It makes sense that there is no EWR mainline thus year, given UA's attempts to move north-south connecting flights away from EWR. I know that last year I flew PWM-EWR-LAX on an A319 in February.

Of course Portland has a larger seasonal leisure impact than MHT/BTV, but it's worth noting that the VAST majority of visitors to Maine (as well as NH and VT) are driving. The jetport will never be anything more than a secondary point of entry for visitors.

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