The E195 fleet averages 4-5 sectors a day in recent weeks, so I'm sure there is slack. But Blue Air has frequently helped out last year with capacity so also very likely they may again.

Also SP-LVA has not flown since 21 FEB. So currently 4 MAX 8s flying.

Germany and the UK have banned the MAX's from their airspace. Considering most of LOT's MAX routes are westbound and overfly Germany, that won't be good for them...

LOT's obsession with Boeing won't end well

What is the likelyhood of Poland grounding LO's MAX as well?

Blerg wrote:

What is the likelyhood of Poland grounding LO's MAX as well?

I think they are as good as grounded. All of them parked at WAW and they can hardly fly anywhere except of domestic routes even if they wanted.

Blerg wrote:

What is the likelyhood of Poland grounding LO's MAX as well?

LOT are maintaining that their MAX's are safe. The cynic in me says that it depends on how much political influence there is over the Polish CAA...

I just wonder what they can replace them with for the time being.

Maybe they made a deal with the CAA, don't officially ground them but we won't fly them.

tomgle wrote:

Germany and the UK have banned the MAX's from their airspace. Considering most of LOT's MAX routes are westbound and overfly Germany, that won't be good for them...

Plus France and Ireland. So they more or less can only operate them in Eastern Europe.

konrad wrote:

Blerg wrote:

What is the likelyhood of Poland grounding LO's MAX as well?

I think they are as good as grounded. All of them parked at WAW and they can hardly fly anywhere except of domestic routes even if they wanted.

I guess they could keep flying to Astana and Tel Aviv, but not much beyond that...

Since they are so constrained by now anyway, perhaps it would be better to ground them voluntarily (even if just to maintain PR)?

LOT spokesperson said that they have a wet lease ready to go and are planning on minimal disruptions.
On a Polish aviation site there is mention that the wet lease flights will start tomorrow, and that when really needed only one 737-400 is flying.

AA is seriously considering opening routes to Poland, at least according to one of its upper-level employees. Is LOT's long-haul monopoly about to end or are they going to enjoy peace for longer with yet another bamboozle? Find out soon on the next episode

A 29 year old GetJet 737-400 will start flying for LOT starting today.

emuwarveteran wrote:

AA is seriously considering opening routes to Poland, at least according to one of its upper-level employees. Is LOT's long-haul monopoly about to end or are they going to enjoy peace for longer with yet another bamboozle? Find out soon on the next episode

Hmmmm just 4 days ago we talked about AA flying out of Philadelphia being the best chance to fly to Poland lol.

If this is real and if it happens I don’t see it happening till summer 2020 at the earliest. It’s too late for this summer and no chance of this winter as it’s slower.

SRQLOT wrote:

emuwarveteran wrote:

AA is seriously considering opening routes to Poland, at least according to one of its upper-level employees. Is LOT's long-haul monopoly about to end or are they going to enjoy peace for longer with yet another bamboozle? Find out soon on the next episode

Hmmmm just 4 days ago we talked about AA flying out of Philadelphia being the best chance to fly to Poland lol.

If this is real and if it happens I don’t see it happening till summer 2020 at the earliest. It’s too late for this summer and no chance of this winter as it’s slower.

Loadfactors for Budapest intercontinental flights 2018 Q4

https://budflyer.blog.hu/2019/03/11/a_b ... ccOec9V1DM

Lot was not doing well, due to seasonality and also the dreamliner engine issues...

SRQLOT wrote:

If this is real and if it happens I don’t see it happening till summer 2020 at the earliest. It’s too late for this summer and no chance of this winter as it’s slower.

Yeah that's obvious, it definitely wouldn't be opened before summer 2020

parrotta wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

emuwarveteran wrote:

AA is seriously considering opening routes to Poland, at least according to one of its upper-level employees. Is LOT's long-haul monopoly about to end or are they going to enjoy peace for longer with yet another bamboozle? Find out soon on the next episode

Hmmmm just 4 days ago we talked about AA flying out of Philadelphia being the best chance to fly to Poland lol.

If this is real and if it happens I don’t see it happening till summer 2020 at the earliest. It’s too late for this summer and no chance of this winter as it’s slower.

Loadfactors for Budapest intercontinental flights 2018 Q4

https://budflyer.blog.hu/2019/03/11/a_b ... ccOec9V1DM

Lot was not doing well, due to seasonality and also the dreamliner engine issues...

Not well seems like an understatement here. In fairness, none of the airlines have particularly high load factors, (except AA possibly) but LOT's are particularly low.

While its Boeing 737 MAX 8s are grounded until further notice, LOT Polish Airlines will operate several flights - until the end of March, at least - with two 737-800s Go2Sky (OM-GTG, OM-GTF) and one 737-400 GetJet (LY-GTW).

via www.facebook.com/104563622953080/posts/ ... 527286236/


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parrotta wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

emuwarveteran wrote:

AA is seriously considering opening routes to Poland, at least according to one of its upper-level employees. Is LOT's long-haul monopoly about to end or are they going to enjoy peace for longer with yet another bamboozle? Find out soon on the next episode

Hmmmm just 4 days ago we talked about AA flying out of Philadelphia being the best chance to fly to Poland lol.

If this is real and if it happens I don’t see it happening till summer 2020 at the earliest. It’s too late for this summer and no chance of this winter as it’s slower.

Loadfactors for Budapest intercontinental flights 2018 Q4

https://budflyer.blog.hu/2019/03/11/a_b ... ccOec9V1DM

Lot was not doing well, due to seasonality and also the dreamliner engine issues...

Ouch! The article does make a good point, if the many cancellations in November and into December messed up the numbers. Also LOT had the replacement aircraft that Hungarians were not happy about and I wonder what was the price point.

I did few ticket searches from ORD and they are a good deal this month, and go back to LOTs average price in May.

One more 737-800 will join the fleet temporarily, although the article I read didn’t say from where. So that will be 4.
The one 737Max8 was hit by lightning and wasn’t flying for a bit. So far they have even replacement 4 for 4.

I wouldn't condemn the Budapest routes after one year's of operation marred by constant cancellations or replacements with subpar leased aircraft, mainly caused by the grounding of up to 3 x 788 at a time with Trent issues. Currently SP-LRB is based at BUD since the beginning of the month and has operated each flight on time so far. LOT really is in quite a mess with so many Dreamliners out of service and now the max fleet too. Not a good time for Boeing and its customers.

Milka wrote:

I wouldn't condemn the Budapest routes after one year's of operation marred by constant cancellations or replacements with subpar leased aircraft, mainly caused by the grounding of up to 3 x 788 at a time with Trent issues. Currently SP-LRB is based at BUD since the beginning of the month and has operated each flight on time so far. LOT really is in quite a mess with so many Dreamliners out of service and now the max fleet too. Not a good time for Boeing and its customers.

I agree, but would be cautious with them - if they're still not earning money next winter, I'd start considering cutting them, or at least making them seasonal. Speaking of which, does anyone have the load factors for the summer?

I'm hoping for some new long-haul after all of the B788s are fixed and the new B789s are delivered. IAD and SFO (if they manage to get slots) seem the most likely because of business traffic and UA connections. Unlike a lot of other people here I don't see WAW - DTW happening.

Just wondering, is Boeing covering the costs of all the wet-leasing (for the B737 MAX 8) - I think I read somewhere that RR are paying for the 787 wet-leases.

tomgle wrote:

Just wondering, is Boeing covering the costs of all the wet-leasing (for the B737 MAX 8) - I think I read somewhere that RR are paying for the 787 wet-leases.

I don't know if they are but I read somewhere that Norwegian plans on sending Boeing a bill for the MAX-related expenses.

Blerg wrote:

tomgle wrote:

Just wondering, is Boeing covering the costs of all the wet-leasing (for the B737 MAX 8) - I think I read somewhere that RR are paying for the 787 wet-leases.

I don't know if they are but I read somewhere that Norwegian plans on sending Boeing a bill for the MAX-related expenses.

Surely they should... it isn’t the airline’s fault.

Enter Air is also flying for LOT. In between Enter flights they will will do a flight for LOT, so it’s a mix of airplanes not just one or 2 dedicated ones. It’s great to see the 2 national carriers work together.

Just read on a Polish aviation site that SP-LRF is back in the air after 2 months. So that’s great news!

Especially after the Maxs being grounded, one European flight was done by a 787-8 maybe few more will be done by the 787.

What is the plane operating WAW - LHR right now? Would permanently switching it to a B788 be feasible? Maybe a B788 once a day and an additional B738 or something

emuwarveteran wrote:

What is the plane operating WAW - LHR right now? Would permanently switching it to a B788 be feasible? Maybe a B788 once a day and an additional B738 or something

They used a B788 last year around Easter, perhaps it could be feasible around Christmas as well, but I doubt it would be feasible year-round. LOT already do 5 flights a day to London, so unless capacity really becomes an issue and they can't get additional slots, I don't really see it happening.

How many actual airbridges are there in WAW? Are they all versatile as in can all of them take either a wider or a narrow-body aircraft?

Blerg wrote:

How many actual airbridges are there in WAW? Are they all versatile as in can all of them take either a wider or a narrow-body aircraft?

About 27 gates with airbridges if I remember correctly of which 6 can accommodate code E aircraft.

So I just found this. It's a bit old by now (January 2019) but still interesting
LOT Cargo tables ambitious growth targets
in a nutshell: LOT is considering ordering a few A350s, and LOT Cargo will become a proper airline operating at least 2 planes in 5 years
Thoughts?

emuwarveteran wrote:

So I just found this. It's a bit old by now (January 2019) but still interesting
LOT Cargo tables ambitious growth targets
in a nutshell: LOT is considering ordering a few A350s, and LOT Cargo will become a proper airline operating at least 2 planes in 5 years
Thoughts?

Definitely agree with the need for freighters, years in the making. They make good money on cargo, depending on season and route. Dreamliners out of YYZ, for example, are cargo heavy almost year round.

As for A350s, as much as I would love to see it, probably won't happen. Price tag is way too high, when they can opt for A330neo which is similar size, for cheaper.
Although I do admit a beast like the A350-1000 would do them good on routes like YYZ, ORD, JFK, where planes are full constantly in the summer. +good room in the belly to make money on cargo; 8hr missions wouldn't be weight restricted either I'd imagine.

Maybe they're considering A350s as they're hoping to get discounts? Or leasing? Perhaps theyre planning future routes that need such range and carrying power.

Are they considering the A350 because of B787 issues? I don't see any other reason why they would switch now.

No chance in hell that LOT is going to order any Airbus aircraft. Not only has LOT been a loyal Boeing customer since the fall of communism but the Polish Gov has better relations with the USA than with the EU.

I posted in last years thread that the PGL was looking at ordering widebody aircraft for not only LOT to lease but other airlines that would want to lease. Now they mentioned the A350 but I always felt it more of a negotiation tactic. Yes LOT has issues with the engines on 787-8, but the 787-9 is working very well for LOT and that is what they will want more of in the future. And I wish the 10 version, although other posters said that won’t happen. It would be an insanity for LOT to have 2 widebody fleets at that size.

As for cargo, LOT does really well with that and in the past had cargo aircraft. I can’t not see them have some in the future. But first it needs to spend money on prioritizing passenger fleet. The 737 Max issue may be ongoing thru summer. I wish they would have went for the cseries, but they needed something bigger and not Ejet size.

If LOT keeps doing well I could see them getting a few 787-10s or maybe even 777s (not sure which model they would choose there though)

Any indication they are re-thinking the MAX fleet? The double challenge (788 and 73M) is bound to give LOT management a reason to think twice about Airbus after all. Especially if Airbus were open to taking on a Polish partner.

emuwarveteran wrote:

If LOT keeps doing well I could see them getting a few 787-10s or maybe even 777s (not sure which model they would choose there though)

777s were ruled out long ago; too big of a machine for them.
787-10s apparently don't interest them either. But we'll see.

ek241yyz wrote:

emuwarveteran wrote:

If LOT keeps doing well I could see them getting a few 787-10s or maybe even 777s (not sure which model they would choose there though)

777s were ruled out long ago; too big of a machine for them.
787-10s apparently don't interest them either. But we'll see.

Ruled out back when LOT was mostly a Lufthansa feeder carrier But yeah any new aircraft types are probably 2025 at the earliest, it'd be wise for them to just stay with the 2 B787 types for now

ek241yyz wrote:

emuwarveteran wrote:

If LOT keeps doing well I could see them getting a few 787-10s or maybe even 777s (not sure which model they would choose there though)

777s were ruled out long ago; too big of a machine for them.
787-10s apparently don't interest them either. But we'll see.

It all depends on the volume on passengers.
If they can fill the 777 and make profit on it they will definitively consider it.
787-10 seems more likely in my eyes.

Milka wrote:

No chance in hell that LOT is going to order any Airbus aircraft. Not only has LOT been a loyal Boeing customer since the fall of communism but the Polish Gov has better relations with the USA than with the EU.

This statement is a bit paradoxical: Poland is a member of EU, so saying that they have better relations with US than EU, is the same as saying they have better relations with USA than with themselves. If you mean they have an aversion to the UK. France & Germany "consortium", then I understand what you mean.

But what actually troubles me is: does the Polish Government interfere in the fleet decisions in LOT? Are their decisions based on their diplomatic relations with the source country of the manufacturer?

dfpinto wrote:

Milka wrote:

No chance in hell that LOT is going to order any Airbus aircraft. Not only has LOT been a loyal Boeing customer since the fall of communism but the Polish Gov has better relations with the USA than with the EU.

This statement is a bit paradoxical: Poland is a member of EU, so saying that they have better relations with US than EU, is the same as saying they have better relations with USA than with themselves. If you mean they have an aversion to the UK. France & Germany "consortium", then I understand what you mean.

But what actually troubles me is: does the Polish Government interfere in the fleet decisions in LOT? Are their decisions based on their diplomatic relations with the source country of the manufacturer?

AFAIK, the original 787 order was entirely apolitical, LOT independently chose Boeing’s offer after evaluating 787 vs 330. It was a very good deal(steep discount).

OTOH the Q400 were ordered as a result of a larger deal with Canada to obtain copper mining rights for a PL company in Canada.

LOT’s fleet decisions are a mixed bag.

dfpinto wrote:

This statement is a bit paradoxical: Poland is a member of EU, so saying that they have better relations with US than EU, is the same as saying they have better relations with USA than with themselves. If you mean they have an aversion to the UK. France & Germany "consortium", then I understand what you mean.

But what actually troubles me is: does the Polish Government interfere in the fleet decisions in LOT? Are their decisions based on their diplomatic relations with the source country of the manufacturer?

Yes and it shouldn't be so surprising, many national carriers that are still at least partially government owned often have fleet decisions influenced by politics. LOT's purchase of Q400's was political as are many other orders around the world. The current Polish government is very anti-EU whilst trying to cozy up with the Americans as much as possible so that could influence orders.

However, the biggest reason that I don't see any Airbus aircraft in LOT's fleet anytime soon is commonality. LOT has been operating Boeing aircraft for 30 years continuously building the backbone of the fleet around the 787 and 737 along with the E-Jets. The airline is too small to have both Airbus and Boeing planes in its fleet and switching to all Airbus right now makes zero sense form the business plan perspective.

Milka wrote:

The current Polish government is very anti-EU whilst trying to cozy up with the Americans as much as possible so that could influence orders.

The current Polish government is not anti-EU, however it is true that it is more friendly towards the US. LOT will probably keep ordering Boeing planes unless they screw up badly again. As I have said before if they keep doing well I see B777s and the Boeing NMA joining the fleet in the 2020s.

emuwarveteran wrote:

The current Polish government is not anti-EU, however it is true that it is more friendly towards the US. LOT will probably keep ordering Boeing planes unless they screw up badly again. As I have said before if they keep doing well I see B777s and the Boeing NMA joining the fleet in the 2020s.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. The former GOV was very pro EU, but the current one despises the EU and for what it stands and continues to show Brussels the middle finger, they only care about the EU funds, thats about it.

Regarding the 777, it makes no sense. The airline is not big enough to add another type to its long-haul fleet, it also does not need the capacity of the 777, it can get the 787-1000 instead and retain commonality for both crew and maintenance.

LOT is currently leasing 2 737s from Go2Sky to cover the 737 Max grounding. The leases expire at the end of this week, as Go2Sky had already committed the aircraft for the summer 2019 season.

Based on the actions of other airlines, it seems that tge 737 Max will likely be grounded for much of April as a minimum. So what does LOT plan to do to cover the lack of usable aircraft in its fleet ? Easter is a busy time and I very much doubt LOT will want to just cancel fully booked flights full of passengers who paid plenty of money for their tickets

Are they planning to lease aircraft from somewhere else or do they perhaps have something else in mind ?

davidjohnson6 wrote:

LOT is currently leasing 2 737s from Go2Sky to cover the 737 Max grounding. The leases expire at the end of this week, as Go2Sky had already committed the aircraft for the summer 2019 season.

Based on the actions of other airlines, it seems that tge 737 Max will likely be grounded for much of April as a minimum. So what does LOT plan to do to cover the lack of usable aircraft in its fleet ? Easter is a busy time and I very much doubt LOT will want to just cancel fully booked flights full of passengers who paid plenty of money for their tickets

Are they planning to lease aircraft from somewhere else or do they perhaps have something else in mind ?

I was looking for flights in Europe and looks like Blue Air is coming back to help LOT. LOT should just buy the airline at this point lol. Also few weeks ago there was the rumor I read and posted here that LOT is planning on getting 8 more E195s. I wonder what the status is of that rumor.