Anyone know how much compensation they could get?
In their 2018 financial statements they say that if grounding would last until end of July they estimate the loss to not exceed 100 mln PLN (some 25 mln USD). At that time they had 5 max grounded, by now they have 10 grounded and by the year end the number will be 12.
Milczarski also said that on top of 17 B787, already with LOT or to be delivered shortly, the next three wb will also be boing. My guess is that the compensation will be in a form of discounts on these birds, the same way LOT is compensated by RR in relation to engines issue.
Interesting, I wonder if they will get an additional three B789. I suppose they will need larger planes since the situation at WAW doesn't seem to be getting any better in terms of expansion.
In the meantime WAW expansion got a green light again (as some contracts that were on hold have now been awarded), but all works will take until end of 2022, so still a lot of time. Of course they will be done in stages, so the capacity will grow incrementally (north pier for NS and south pier for S).
I don't think it will be B787. I think they mentioned some time ago they are looking into B78X, so would be suprised if the choice is not between 789 and 78X (in some proportions). They might employ the latter in ORD, YYZ (especially during summer peaks) and ICN, but I still think they will go for all 789.
If LO indeed opens IAD, it will deepen their problems around seasonality, which is one of their top issues. There is no good way around that, except for Asia expansion, which is dragging.
What I am curious about is the short-haul expansion next year. They will have net some 10 max by the end of next year (7 net by its start) (ie. after deduction of the aircrafts that they now wet lease as a replacement for grounded max).