VTORD
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:01 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
atypical wrote:

Excellent question. LHR-IND would get boosts with cargo based upon the RR plant in Indy if the the CFM (GE/Safran) model holds true (CVG-CDG). The pax numbers would also, supposedly, be better because of Indy and London businesses ties (RR and Eli Lilly). I think LHR would be the best TATL for Indy all other things being the same. I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.


I'm not sure how much cargo the RR plants send to Europe, however, it could capitalize on FedEx cargo like the CDG flight does.

I will add AMS doesn't add much value in terms of connections offered, most of the benefit is based off of a more seamless connection . CDG makes sense because it provides good connections to India, where Cummins has a large presence along with Infosys, Wipro, AXISCADES, plus Purdue has the most Indian students out of any university in the US.

AA/BA to LHR would be good, but ideally it would be nice to have one carrier(DL) provide TATL service to both destinations, so it doesn't split corporate travel. Connections would obviously be something to worry about, but again this is a little down the road, but it is something to think about. I'd wager IND is either 1 or 2 in terms of top unserved US routes from London....



Actually, I'm not sure how much better CDG is to India. KLM and Jet Airways both offer connections to India and AMS is a much more user friendly experience than CDG. I agree with you on a single carrier providing service to both destinations. I think IND could support a seasonal Condor flight to Frankfurt very soon also.

Not sure if you folks are following the Jet Airways thread but 9W has suspended all their international flights and returned all their LHR slots to EY. So now the CDG connection is down to AF. Does anyone know how much traffic UA carries to BOM from IND? Cummins' main facility in India is in Pune which is drivable from BOM so I would think IND-EWR-BOM on UA would be quite convenient for business users with slightly better connection times than CDG
 
Fargo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:08 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
atypical wrote:

Excellent question. LHR-IND would get boosts with cargo based upon the RR plant in Indy if the the CFM (GE/Safran) model holds true (CVG-CDG). The pax numbers would also, supposedly, be better because of Indy and London businesses ties (RR and Eli Lilly). I think LHR would be the best TATL for Indy all other things being the same. I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.


I'm not sure how much cargo the RR plants send to Europe, however, it could capitalize on FedEx cargo like the CDG flight does.

I will add AMS doesn't add much value in terms of connections offered, most of the benefit is based off of a more seamless connection . CDG makes sense because it provides good connections to India, where Cummins has a large presence along with Infosys, Wipro, AXISCADES, plus Purdue has the most Indian students out of any university in the US.

AA/BA to LHR would be good, but ideally it would be nice to have one carrier(DL) provide TATL service to both destinations, so it doesn't split corporate travel. Connections would obviously be something to worry about, but again this is a little down the road, but it is something to think about. I'd wager IND is either 1 or 2 in terms of top unserved US routes from London....



Actually, I'm not sure how much better CDG is to India. KLM and Jet Airways both offer connections to India and AMS is a much more user friendly experience than CDG. I agree with you on a single carrier providing service to both destinations. I think IND could support a seasonal Condor flight to Frankfurt very soon also.


Overall, AF/KL isn't as good for connections to India compared to BA and LH IMO. That said, AF is better for India connections as it serves BLR in addition to DEL and BOM, whereas KL only serves the latter two.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:34 pm

I wonder how many seasoned DL passengers would rather fly IND-DTW-AMS-XXX over IND-CDG-XXX just to avoid dealing with CDG? I've heard enough stories about CDG that I would be half tempted to avoid it myself. I may be in RDU now but I'd be tempted to do a connection in the US to AMS over a flight to CDG.
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cvgComair
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:55 pm

Indy wrote:
I wonder how many seasoned DL passengers would rather fly IND-DTW-AMS-XXX over IND-CDG-XXX just to avoid dealing with CDG? I've heard enough stories about CDG that I would be half tempted to avoid it myself. I may be in RDU now but I'd be tempted to do a connection in the US to AMS over a flight to CDG.

I personally prefer 2-stops through BOS/AMS than going 1-stop CDG. However, that is mostly because I prefer KLM over AF.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:00 am

cvgComair wrote:
Indy wrote:
I wonder how many seasoned DL passengers would rather fly IND-DTW-AMS-XXX over IND-CDG-XXX just to avoid dealing with CDG? I've heard enough stories about CDG that I would be half tempted to avoid it myself. I may be in RDU now but I'd be tempted to do a connection in the US to AMS over a flight to CDG.

I personally prefer 2-stops through BOS/AMS than going 1-stop CDG. However, that is mostly because I prefer KLM over AF.


I am not a fan of the way AF does (or doesn't) offers seat assignments. Why you cannot select your seat on the CDG-EU route is beyond me. Personally I'd rather just terminate my flight in AMS and take the train to my destination.
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:54 am

So the LF’s have got to go up on the CDG flight for IND to keep “year round service “ correct?

The loads so far have not been enough to keep year round service?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:07 pm

fedex1 wrote:
So the LF’s have got to go up on the CDG flight for IND to keep “year round service “ correct?

The loads so far have not been enough to keep year round service?


Correct, IMO they have not

Btw I didn't notice any new changes from DL or UA, but DL has already loaded in MIA/RSW for next spring

Here is how things are looking in terms of seat share starting in September
29%--DL
24%--WN
23%--AA
13.78%--UA
5.04%--F9
2.21%--NK
1.90%--G4
0.91%--AC
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:48 pm

I figured IND wanted transatlantic service.... but this market just isn’t big enough to support it.
 
Fargo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:15 pm

fedex1 wrote:
I figured IND wanted transatlantic service.... but this market just isn’t big enough to support it.


It's not that, it's just CDG is the wrong city.

It seems (generally speaking) CDG has difficulty from non-hub/focus city markets (for any carrier, not just DL). BA doing IND-LHR would be much more successful if it existed.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:17 pm

fedex1 wrote:
I figured IND wanted transatlantic service.... but this market just isn’t big enough to support it.


Wow, that's a pretty extreme reaction
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HeeseokKoo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:51 pm

IND is hitting 737 max ground effect: WN removed IND-OAK and one of IND-PHX in June, and probably also for July (these flights appear as sold out).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 3:23 pm

HeeseokKoo wrote:
IND is hitting 737 max ground effect: WN removed IND-OAK and one of IND-PHX in June, and probably also for July (these flights appear as sold out).


Looks like WN is down -15.3% this June/July, that is going to be tough to absorb considering LFs for all the West Coast flights were 90%+. Crazy to think that WN will be down to 32 departures in peak summer....

Maybe that will mean some last minute upguages from DL/AA/UA.
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Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 3:50 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
HeeseokKoo wrote:
IND is hitting 737 max ground effect: WN removed IND-OAK and one of IND-PHX in June, and probably also for July (these flights appear as sold out).


Looks like WN is down -15.3% this June/July, that is going to be tough to absorb considering LFs for all the West Coast flights were 90%+. Crazy to think that WN will be down to 32 departures in peak summer....

Maybe that will mean some last minute upguages from DL/AA/UA.


Have to think they want to cut back on longer flights so they can run two instead. hypothetically instead of IND-OAK they can keep IND-DEN-west cost and only cut one flight instead of two.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:02 pm

I'm surprised they cut IND-OAK and not IND-SAN

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beerbus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:09 pm

A friend of mine, who is a crew member on DL 500/501 IND CDG reports numerous Indian expats making CDG connections to India via Jet Airways.

This is good news long-term for the service. T

Connecting traffic like this can help the flights survive in a non-incentified revenue environment.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:12 pm

With Jet Airways demise won't that hurt IND-CDG-India?

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:17 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
HeeseokKoo wrote:
IND is hitting 737 max ground effect: WN removed IND-OAK and one of IND-PHX in June, and probably also for July (these flights appear as sold out).


Looks like WN is down -15.3% this June/July, that is going to be tough to absorb considering LFs for all the West Coast flights were 90%+. Crazy to think that WN will be down to 32 departures in peak summer....

Maybe that will mean some last minute upguages from DL/AA/UA.


Have to think they want to cut back on longer flights so they can run two instead. hypothetically instead of IND-OAK they can keep IND-DEN-west cost and only cut one flight instead of two.


I agree, I do think it is interesting to see what they decided to cut though. For example, CMH-OAK, IND-SAN stays

IND-OAK, PIT-LAX, MKE-SAN, EWR-SAN, EWR-OAK, MCO-SJC, 1x BNA-LAX/SAN, e.t.c are cut

ibthebigd wrote:
I'm surprised they cut IND-OAK and not IND-SAN

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


IND-SAN is higher yielding, and has a shorter stage length

beerbus wrote:
A friend of mine, who is a crew member on DL 500/501 IND CDG reports numerous Indian expats making CDG connections to India via Jet Airways.

This is good news long-term for the service. T

Connecting traffic like this can help the flights survive in a non-incentified revenue environment.


Double-edged sword, as I mentioned earlier the India connections boost this flight a lot, however DL is getting ready to start n/s US-India service which could put a sizable dent in IND-CDG-India travel
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:32 pm

IND is taking it to the chin in terms of competition recently:
DL will be the only carrier flying to BOS
AA has cut its second daily LAX, and WN doesn't run their LAX flights from Jan-mid March
AA is down to 2x on IND-LGA
AA is only carrier flying IND-DCA
No LCC/ULCC to NYC
UA will be the only one flying to the Bay Area in peak summer
Only 1x daily ULCC/LCC flight to PHX

Kind of odd to think there will be only 1 carrier on all these routes this summer: IND-Bay Area/PHL/BOS/MIA/EWR/DCA/RDU/MSP/SAN/CLT/e.t.c
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beerbus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:59 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
With Jet Airways demise won't that hurt IND-CDG-India?


Well, I guess we will know more Monday - a big decision on the future of Jet Airways is due tomorrow.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 874328.cms
 
VTORD
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:28 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Double-edged sword, as I mentioned earlier the India connections boost this flight a lot, however DL is getting ready to start n/s US-India service which could put a sizable dent in IND-CDG-India travel

The non-stop flight is just speculation at this point. I'll believe it when I see it. There's a whole Anet thread on that one too! Without a stable Jet at the India end, DL's non-stop to India is simply not happening.
 
indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
IND is taking it to the chin in terms of competition recently:
DL will be the only carrier flying to BOS
AA has cut its second daily LAX, and WN doesn't run their LAX flights from Jan-mid March
AA is down to 2x on IND-LGA
AA is only carrier flying IND-DCA
No LCC/ULCC to NYC
UA will be the only one flying to the Bay Area in peak summer
Only 1x daily ULCC/LCC flight to PHX

Kind of odd to think there will be only 1 carrier on all these routes this summer: IND-Bay Area/PHL/BOS/MIA/EWR/DCA/RDU/MSP/SAN/CLT/e.t.c


Agreed on all this. And it concerns me a bit because I fear it'll have a continued negative effect on prices.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:15 am

indygs wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
IND is taking it to the chin in terms of competition recently:
DL will be the only carrier flying to BOS
AA has cut its second daily LAX, and WN doesn't run their LAX flights from Jan-mid March
AA is down to 2x on IND-LGA
AA is only carrier flying IND-DCA
No LCC/ULCC to NYC
UA will be the only one flying to the Bay Area in peak summer
Only 1x daily ULCC/LCC flight to PHX

Kind of odd to think there will be only 1 carrier on all these routes this summer: IND-Bay Area/PHL/BOS/MIA/EWR/DCA/RDU/MSP/SAN/CLT/e.t.c


Agreed on all this. And it concerns me a bit because I fear it'll have a continued negative effect on prices.


I'm really rooting for NK to continue to expand at IND, I think they have the best shot of bringing fares down to places like BOS/PHL/CLT/NYC. At one point recently, I thought WN/G4/F9 all had a chance to do it, but all of them have either gotten stagnant or retreated.
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:13 pm

Here's hoping B9 sees an opportunity, too, to come in and make something work to BOS and beyond.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:51 pm

Some Q4 2018 data for IND:
What I found interesting was, IND-SJU/HNL were at around 50 PDEW. I think IND-SJU is a good candidate for some 1x weekly service similar to CUN or PUJ.

And just to drive home my point about rising prices in IND, here is a comparison from Q4 2017 to Q4 2018
Average Prices for Non Stop flights by airline Q4 2017 V Q4 2018
AA IND-DFW--$265 V $294
AA IND-PHX--$256 V $288
AA IND-DCA--$175 V $241
AA IND-MIA--$217 V $242

DL IND-DTW--$247 V $280
DL IND-BOS--$223 V $257

UA IND-SFO--$296 V $321
UA IND-IAD--$168 V $236

WN IND-PHX--$207 V $238
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Some Q4 2018 data for IND:
What I found interesting was, IND-SJU/HNL were at around 50 PDEW. I think IND-SJU is a good candidate for some 1x weekly service similar to CUN or PUJ.

And just to drive home my point about rising prices in IND, here is a comparison from Q4 2017 to Q4 2018
Average Prices for Non Stop flights by airline Q4 2017 V Q4 2018
AA IND-DFW--$265 V $294
AA IND-PHX--$256 V $288
AA IND-DCA--$175 V $241
AA IND-MIA--$217 V $242

DL IND-DTW--$247 V $280
DL IND-BOS--$223 V $257

UA IND-SFO--$296 V $321
UA IND-IAD--$168 V $236

WN IND-PHX--$207 V $238


A 38% rise in fares on WAS routes (UA and AA) is pretty steep. That's by far the largest jump of any shown here. Goes to show you the power of WN having kept fares down prior to them leaving the market.
 
ATAIndy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:42 pm

indygs wrote:
A 38% rise in fares on WAS routes (UA and AA) is pretty steep. That's by far the largest jump of any shown here. Goes to show you the power of WN having kept fares down prior to them leaving the market.


Also goes to show how little the power of WN at BWI is at keeping the fares down.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:10 pm

Name a better airport....I'll wait

Image
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:41 pm

[quote="Midwestindy"]Name a better airport....I'll wait

Great idea, but I wonder how the vendors feel about this?
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:01 pm

kindeham wrote:
Great idea, but I wonder how the vendors feel about this?


Maybe they're just doing it temporarily while most of the vendors are transitioning anyway? IND gave out free reusable water bottles for a few days last year with their logo and slogan on them, much better than free bottled water IMO.
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:14 pm

There aren't too many vendors selling water until you get airside, and this water can't get past TSA.

I saw this on a couple days when it was super hot last summer. Kudos to the IND team for making the airport experience better for those who wish to partake.
 
bobsmith99
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Name a better airport....I'll wait

Image


Indy has a great airport, but there are other great ones out there. PDX, AUS, RDU also come to mind as really great airports. PDX there is no need for bottled water as they have water refill stations (I know a lot of places have this), but the water in the Pacific NW is so tasty that bottled water actually sounds unappealing (not to mention the environmental impact of plastic bottles).
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Name a better airport....I'll wait

Image


Indy has a great airport, but there are other great ones out there. PDX, AUS, RDU also come to mind as really great airports. PDX there is no need for bottled water as they have water refill stations (I know a lot of places have this), but the water in the Pacific NW is so tasty that bottled water actually sounds unappealing (not to mention the environmental impact of plastic bottles).


IND has water bottle refill stations as well, however not everyone is savvy enough to bring refillable water bottles to the airport when they fly.

PDX is a great airport, as is RDU

AUS is not on the same level as the 3 mentioned above, especially due to congestion at peak times during the day. But it isn't terrible either.

I'd say somethings that help IND stand out are the Wifi, the seating, and the wideness of the concourses.
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bobsmith99
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
bobsmith99 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Name a better airport....I'll wait

Image


Indy has a great airport, but there are other great ones out there. PDX, AUS, RDU also come to mind as really great airports. PDX there is no need for bottled water as they have water refill stations (I know a lot of places have this), but the water in the Pacific NW is so tasty that bottled water actually sounds unappealing (not to mention the environmental impact of plastic bottles).


IND has water bottle refill stations as well, however not everyone is savvy enough to bring refillable water bottles to the airport when they fly.

PDX is a great airport, as is RDU

AUS is not on the same level as the 3 mentioned above, especially due to congestion at peak times during the day. But it isn't terrible either.

I'd say somethings that help IND stand out are the Wifi, the seating, and the wideness of the concourses.




All fair points. Yes, Austin does get bottlenecked.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:15 am

https://www.drnkcltr.com/mario-rodrigue ... PUH1UJtTv8

1 hour 30 min interview with Mario Rodriguez about his career. Thought you guys would be interested in this.
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pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:41 am

WN
IND-LAX-90.4%; LAX-IND-95.8%
IND-PHX-89.7%; PHX-IND-80.1%
IND-OAK-66.0%; OAK-IND-62.6%
IND-AUS-61.4%; AUS-IND-96.0%
IND-EWR-57.8%; EWR-IND-89.3%
IND-MDW-57.1%; MDW-IND-61.1%
IND-MCI-52.2%; MCI-IND-57.5%
IND-BOS-52.1%; BOS-IND-56.5%
IND-MSY-41.6%; MSY-IND-91.8%

I predict more cuts for WN. These seem unsustainable even for January.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:31 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
WN
IND-LAX-90.4%; LAX-IND-95.8%
IND-PHX-89.7%; PHX-IND-80.1%
IND-OAK-66.0%; OAK-IND-62.6%
IND-AUS-61.4%; AUS-IND-96.0%
IND-EWR-57.8%; EWR-IND-89.3%
IND-MDW-57.1%; MDW-IND-61.1%
IND-MCI-52.2%; MCI-IND-57.5%
IND-BOS-52.1%; BOS-IND-56.5%
IND-MSY-41.6%; MSY-IND-91.8%

I predict more cuts for WN. These seem unsustainable even for January.


BOS/EWR are already cut,
AUS and MSY are fine if you consider both ways combined, plus the fact that they are 1x weekly,
MCI/MDW are both short-haul midwest markets that are not going to be high-LF during the winter, plus they don't make sense for connections to Florida which is big that time of year, so inherently they won't have high LFs during Winter.
Keep in mind also, that there is a decent amount of gov't related travel into and out of IND which was likely impacted by the gov't shutdown.

WN has already cut back significantly, if they permanently cut anything else it will be MCI, MDW, OAK, or ATL. Other than that the rest of their routes are very strong from IND, in fact there IND-Florida presence is larger at peak than most of their focus cities, and they likely don't want to jeopardize that.
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Fargo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
WN
IND-LAX-90.4%; LAX-IND-95.8%
IND-PHX-89.7%; PHX-IND-80.1%
IND-OAK-66.0%; OAK-IND-62.6%
IND-AUS-61.4%; AUS-IND-96.0%
IND-EWR-57.8%; EWR-IND-89.3%
IND-MDW-57.1%; MDW-IND-61.1%
IND-MCI-52.2%; MCI-IND-57.5%
IND-BOS-52.1%; BOS-IND-56.5%
IND-MSY-41.6%; MSY-IND-91.8%

I predict more cuts for WN. These seem unsustainable even for January.


BOS/EWR are already cut,
AUS and MSY are fine if you consider both ways combined, plus the fact that they are 1x weekly,
MCI/MDW are both short-haul midwest markets that are not going to be high-LF during the winter, plus they don't make sense for connections to Florida which is big that time of year, so inherently they won't have high LFs during Winter.
Keep in mind also, that there is a decent amount of gov't related travel into and out of IND which was likely impacted by the gov't shutdown.

WN has already cut back significantly, if they permanently cut anything else it will be MCI, MDW, OAK, or ATL. Other than that the rest of their routes are very strong from IND, in fact there IND-Florida presence is larger at peak than most of their focus cities, and they likely don't want to jeopardize that.


I have a feeling IND-ATL will be switched to IND-BNA as soon as the MAX issues are resolved and they can resume meaningful expansion.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:17 pm

October will see some insane growth for DL, it looks like October seats are scheduled to increase 26%.

IND-SLC B738 is extended through October
IND-RDU CR9 is added through October
IND-BOS extra frequency YOY + E175 added
IND-JFK extra frequency YOY
IND-ATL 5xMD88 upguaged to 3xB739 and 2xB738
IND-MSP all mainline, B739 added
IND-MCO YOY upguage to mainline
IND-DTW increase in 76 seaters

Finally DL is adding the B738 to IND-LAX for Winter break

UA is adding an extra IND-SFO flight for the NRA convention and an extra E175 to IAH
It looks like UA are doing better in October as well:
5/7 IND-EWR flights are E70/E75
IND-IAD has 2xE75 and 1xA319

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
WN
IND-LAX-90.4%; LAX-IND-95.8%
IND-PHX-89.7%; PHX-IND-80.1%
IND-OAK-66.0%; OAK-IND-62.6%
IND-AUS-61.4%; AUS-IND-96.0%
IND-EWR-57.8%; EWR-IND-89.3%
IND-MDW-57.1%; MDW-IND-61.1%
IND-MCI-52.2%; MCI-IND-57.5%
IND-BOS-52.1%; BOS-IND-56.5%
IND-MSY-41.6%; MSY-IND-91.8%

I predict more cuts for WN. These seem unsustainable even for January.


BOS/EWR are already cut,
AUS and MSY are fine if you consider both ways combined, plus the fact that they are 1x weekly,
MCI/MDW are both short-haul midwest markets that are not going to be high-LF during the winter, plus they don't make sense for connections to Florida which is big that time of year, so inherently they won't have high LFs during Winter.
Keep in mind also, that there is a decent amount of gov't related travel into and out of IND which was likely impacted by the gov't shutdown.

WN has already cut back significantly, if they permanently cut anything else it will be MCI, MDW, OAK, or ATL. Other than that the rest of their routes are very strong from IND, in fact there IND-Florida presence is larger at peak than most of their focus cities, and they likely don't want to jeopardize that.


I have a feeling IND-ATL will be switched to IND-BNA as soon as the MAX issues are resolved and they can resume meaningful expansion.


I don't know if it will be that soon, but I could see it happening, as both airports have been trying to get it. One problem I see is that BNA might not have enough connecting feed to make it work, especially since these flights wouldn't have much O&D.
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ibthebigd
Posts: 246
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
October will see some insane growth for DL, it looks like October seats are scheduled to increase 26%.

IND-SLC B738 is extended through October
IND-RDU CR9 is added through October
IND-BOS extra frequency YOY + E175 added
IND-JFK extra frequency YOY
IND-ATL 5xMD88 upguaged to 3xB739 and 2xB738
IND-MSP all mainline, B739 added
IND-MCO YOY upguage to mainline
IND-DTW increase in 76 seaters

Finally DL is adding the B738 to IND-LAX for Winter break

UA is adding an extra IND-SFO flight for the NRA convention and an extra E175 to IAH
It looks like UA are doing better in October as well:
5/7 IND-EWR flights are E70/E75
IND-IAD has 2xE75 and 1xA319

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

BOS/EWR are already cut,
AUS and MSY are fine if you consider both ways combined, plus the fact that they are 1x weekly,
MCI/MDW are both short-haul midwest markets that are not going to be high-LF during the winter, plus they don't make sense for connections to Florida which is big that time of year, so inherently they won't have high LFs during Winter.
Keep in mind also, that there is a decent amount of gov't related travel into and out of IND which was likely impacted by the gov't shutdown.

WN has already cut back significantly, if they permanently cut anything else it will be MCI, MDW, OAK, or ATL. Other than that the rest of their routes are very strong from IND, in fact there IND-Florida presence is larger at peak than most of their focus cities, and they likely don't want to jeopardize that.


I have a feeling IND-ATL will be switched to IND-BNA as soon as the MAX issues are resolved and they can resume meaningful expansion.


I don't know if it will be that soon, but I could see it happening, as both airports have been trying to get it. One problem I see is that BNA might not have enough connecting feed to make it work, especially since these flights wouldn't have much O&D.
How's the connection feed on MCI nowadays compared to say BNA or ATL?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
pmanni1
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:04 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
October will see some insane growth for DL, it looks like October seats are scheduled to increase 26%.

IND-SLC B738 is extended through October
IND-RDU CR9 is added through October
IND-BOS extra frequency YOY + E175 added
IND-JFK extra frequency YOY
IND-ATL 5xMD88 upguaged to 3xB739 and 2xB738
IND-MSP all mainline, B739 added
IND-MCO YOY upguage to mainline
IND-DTW increase in 76 seaters

Finally DL is adding the B738 to IND-LAX for Winter break

UA is adding an extra IND-SFO flight for the NRA convention and an extra E175 to IAH
It looks like UA are doing better in October as well:
5/7 IND-EWR flights are E70/E75
IND-IAD has 2xE75 and 1xA319

Fargo wrote:

I have a feeling IND-ATL will be switched to IND-BNA as soon as the MAX issues are resolved and they can resume meaningful expansion.


I don't know if it will be that soon, but I could see it happening, as both airports have been trying to get it. One problem I see is that BNA might not have enough connecting feed to make it work, especially since these flights wouldn't have much O&D.
How's the connection feed on MCI nowadays compared to say BNA or ATL?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Hardly any connections outside of maybe DEN, ABQ and LAX. Probably mostly O&D and that's keeping LF's in the 50s. Swapping MCI with STL would open up way more connections.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3883
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:25 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
October will see some insane growth for DL, it looks like October seats are scheduled to increase 26%.

IND-SLC B738 is extended through October
IND-RDU CR9 is added through October
IND-BOS extra frequency YOY + E175 added
IND-JFK extra frequency YOY
IND-ATL 5xMD88 upguaged to 3xB739 and 2xB738
IND-MSP all mainline, B739 added
IND-MCO YOY upguage to mainline
IND-DTW increase in 76 seaters

Finally DL is adding the B738 to IND-LAX for Winter break

UA is adding an extra IND-SFO flight for the NRA convention and an extra E175 to IAH
It looks like UA are doing better in October as well:
5/7 IND-EWR flights are E70/E75
IND-IAD has 2xE75 and 1xA319



I don't know if it will be that soon, but I could see it happening, as both airports have been trying to get it. One problem I see is that BNA might not have enough connecting feed to make it work, especially since these flights wouldn't have much O&D.
How's the connection feed on MCI nowadays compared to say BNA or ATL?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Hardly any connections outside of maybe DEN, ABQ and LAX. Probably mostly O&D and that's keeping LF's in the 50s. Swapping MCI with STL would open up way more connections.


MCI is different because there is a sizable amount of O&D on both ends, Q3 2018 had 120 PDEW, IND-BNA/STL would be lucky to get 40 PDEW on WN.

MCI is decent for connections to the west, for example they are running IND-MCI-PDX no plane change service this summer. Also, it's tough to see how IND-STL would do well when IND-MDW/DEN/LAS/DAL/e.t.c all serve similar connections. The only work would be with a trimming of some other existing routes from IND.

If WN drops IND-MCI I don't see another airline being that eager to pick it up, other than maybe an airline like Via Air or maybe DL.

I think the route is more about serving MCI business travelers more than anything else
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pmanni1
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
How's the connection feed on MCI nowadays compared to say BNA or ATL?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Hardly any connections outside of maybe DEN, ABQ and LAX. Probably mostly O&D and that's keeping LF's in the 50s. Swapping MCI with STL would open up way more connections.


MCI is different because there is a sizable amount of O&D on both ends, Q3 2018 had 120 PDEW, IND-BNA/STL would be lucky to get 40 PDEW on WN.

MCI is decent for connections to the west, for example they are running IND-MCI-PDX no plane change service this summer. Also, it's tough to see how IND-STL would do well when IND-MDW/DEN/LAS/DAL/e.t.c all serve similar connections. The only work would be with a trimming of some other existing routes from IND.

If WN drops IND-MCI I don't see another airline being that eager to pick it up, other than maybe an airline like Via Air or maybe DL.

I think the route is more about serving MCI business travelers more than anything else

STL would open up a fast connection to all of the Midwest cities like DSM,ICT,OMA,OKC,TUL,LIT. MCI serves none of those and MDW only serves OKC & OMA. Would also have another option for westward SLC,SFO,OAK,SJC, SMF.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3883
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:45 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Hardly any connections outside of maybe DEN, ABQ and LAX. Probably mostly O&D and that's keeping LF's in the 50s. Swapping MCI with STL would open up way more connections.


MCI is different because there is a sizable amount of O&D on both ends, Q3 2018 had 120 PDEW, IND-BNA/STL would be lucky to get 40 PDEW on WN.

MCI is decent for connections to the west, for example they are running IND-MCI-PDX no plane change service this summer. Also, it's tough to see how IND-STL would do well when IND-MDW/DEN/LAS/DAL/e.t.c all serve similar connections. The only work would be with a trimming of some other existing routes from IND.

If WN drops IND-MCI I don't see another airline being that eager to pick it up, other than maybe an airline like Via Air or maybe DL.

I think the route is more about serving MCI business travelers more than anything else

STL would open up a fast connection to all of the Midwest cities like DSM,ICT,OMA,OKC,TUL,LIT. MCI serves none of those and MDW only serves OKC & OMA. Would also have another option for westward SLC,SFO,OAK,SJC, SMF.


OKC and OMA are the only ones that have sizable O&D from IND, the other ones might provide 25-30 PDEW on an IND-STL route. But as you mentioned OMA & OKC are currently served by MDW already. So, an extra 80-100 passengers are going to have to come from somewhere.

SLC/SFO/OAK/SMF/and most of the west coast routes are served very well by WN flying IND-4xDEN, 2xPHX, 3xLAS, 1xOAK, 1xLAX, 1xSAN, 1xMDW, e.t.c

I just see IND-STL as being disadvantageous to WN's core hubs of DEN, MDW, LAS, and DAL, which limits the likelihood of it being added.
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GSOtoIND
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:14 am

pmanni1 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
October will see some insane growth for DL, it looks like October seats are scheduled to increase 26%.

IND-SLC B738 is extended through October
IND-RDU CR9 is added through October
IND-BOS extra frequency YOY + E175 added
IND-JFK extra frequency YOY
IND-ATL 5xMD88 upguaged to 3xB739 and 2xB738
IND-MSP all mainline, B739 added
IND-MCO YOY upguage to mainline
IND-DTW increase in 76 seaters

Finally DL is adding the B738 to IND-LAX for Winter break

UA is adding an extra IND-SFO flight for the NRA convention and an extra E175 to IAH
It looks like UA are doing better in October as well:
5/7 IND-EWR flights are E70/E75
IND-IAD has 2xE75 and 1xA319



I don't know if it will be that soon, but I could see it happening, as both airports have been trying to get it. One problem I see is that BNA might not have enough connecting feed to make it work, especially since these flights wouldn't have much O&D.
How's the connection feed on MCI nowadays compared to say BNA or ATL?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Hardly any connections outside of maybe DEN, ABQ and LAX. Probably mostly O&D and that's keeping LF's in the 50s. Swapping MCI with STL would open up way more connections.

The timing of the evening flight probably doesn't help with feed. It doesn't leave until around 10pm and has been that way for most of fall and winter. It moves to a more convenient 6PM departure time in June.
IND. 2018: BOS/AUA/MIA/DEN Next: LAS/SLC/DEN
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 3883
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:19 am

Looks like AA had to make some adjustments for June/July for their IND schedule:

IND-PHL loses its mainline, which results in it being only 5x daily during June. Watch for high LFs and higher fares on this route this summer....
IND-ORD loses its mainline in July
IND-LAX goes down to 1x daily this summer (previously reported)

Expect some high LFs and high fares this summer....
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Fargo
Posts: 731
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:31 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like AA had to make some adjustments for June/July for their IND schedule:

IND-PHL loses its mainline, which results in it being only 5x daily during June. Watch for high LFs and higher fares on this route this summer....
IND-ORD loses its mainline in July
IND-LAX goes down to 1x daily this summer (previously reported)

Expect some high LFs and high fares this summer....


AA has been super bipolar when it comes to mainline to ORD (and to some extent PHL) from midsized markets like IND, CMH, BNA, etc. It really is amazing. It perplexes me that UA/AA haven’t figured out that upgauging to more mainline to ORD would allow them to gain an advantage over the other.
 
kindeham
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:55 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:39 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like AA had to make some adjustments for June/July for their IND schedule:

IND-PHL loses its mainline, which results in it being only 5x daily during June. Watch for high LFs and higher fares on this route this summer....
IND-ORD loses its mainline in July
IND-LAX goes down to 1x daily this summer (previously reported)

Expect some high LFs and high fares this summer....


I'm guessing this is the result of the 737 MAX debacle since AA is cancelling all MAX ops through the middle of August. I wouldn't take it as a sign of trouble, but rather AA just repositioning mainline aircraft where they are most needed. Is going to be a rough summer though on those routes.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:08 pm

Looks like G4 is gearing up for scheduled Mexico service, would like to see IND-CUN + maybe PVR or SJD. Who knows maybe they will be the ones to add IND-MEX.....
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zackary747
Posts: 580
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:46 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Looks like G4 is gearing up for scheduled Mexico service, would like to see IND-CUN + maybe PVR or SJD. Who knows maybe they will be the ones to add IND-MEX.....


If they add IND-MEX they better not get any incentive money. I can't support using that money for ULCC service.
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stlgph
Posts: 10947
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:25 am

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