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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:19 pm

Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories
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Fargo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


What’s going on? This seems really odd, it’s not like IND is doing bad economically or anything
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


There's a possibility that Allegiant could add those routes themselves at the end of the year. Is Allegiant charting anything in 2020? If not, then it could be because their plan is to operate those routes independently.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:30 pm

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


What’s going on? This seems really odd, it’s not like IND is doing bad economically or anything


I'd like to know as well, considering I now am paying extra for it

zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


There's a possibility that Allegiant could add those routes themselves at the end of the year. Is Allegiant charting anything in 2020? If not, then it could be because their plan is to operate those routes independently.


It's a possibility, however, CVG and PIT are keeping their Vacation Express routes without G4's planes except for 1 CVG flight. So, I would think this is more than just G4 flying the routes itself.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


What’s going on? This seems really odd, it’s not like IND is doing bad economically or anything


I'd like to know as well, considering I now am paying extra for it

zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


There's a possibility that Allegiant could add those routes themselves at the end of the year. Is Allegiant charting anything in 2020? If not, then it could be because their plan is to operate those routes independently.


It's a possibility, however, CVG and PIT are keeping their Vacation Express routes without G4's planes except for 1 CVG flight. So, I would think this is more than just G4 flying the routes itself.


You should email the IBJ and have them look into the vacation express situation. Maybe then we’ll get somewhat of an answer.


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garybow
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Vacation Express released their official summer 2020 schedule today, and again as expected IND was not included. At this point it appears that IND could see negative yoy passenger numbers.

Surprised that none of the local news outlets have caught on to any of these stories


You do realize Vacation Express accounted for a whooping 2,500 passengers in 2018.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:17 pm

IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:34 pm

Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.

I think you have a fundamental misconception of what's going on in the Indianapolis market.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:09 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
I think you have a fundamental misconception of what's going on in the Indianapolis market.


I really don't. But thanks for playing.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:13 pm

Indy wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
I think you have a fundamental misconception of what's going on in the Indianapolis market.


I really don't. But thanks for playing.

Ya really do, pal. And it shows. Everything is Max-related and also the fault of Spirit and Frontier? :rotfl:
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:27 pm

Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


1. Allegiant is NOT a dart board airline. They have not cut a route from IND yet (with the exception of AZA but that’s still listed as suspended, we’ll see what happens there). Every other route has ran consistently on a seasonal or all year around basis year after year.

2. Having G4 and F9 leave IND will hurt the city tremendously. The fares are low because of the type of airline (LCC and ULCC, mainly ULCC). Getting rid of almost all of the ULCC presence will NOT lower prices. It will result DL, AA, UA, and hell even WN to raise their prices.....

Also a good portion of Allegiants nonstop network here (SAV, VPS, CHS, etc.) will not be able to be replaced by anyone else. It’s unique to Allegiants model. Allegiant is an Indy staple and losing them will be simply unrecoverable. (Delta doesn’t have the business model to make a profit on routes like IND-SAV,VPS,CHS) it’s a leisure market and they want (me included) ULCC pricing.


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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:06 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Ya really do, pal. And it shows. Everything is Max-related and also the fault of Spirit and Frontier? :rotfl:


No.. you don't. If you don't think MAX has been a big problem you haven't been paying attention. And the problem people are Frontier and Allegiant. I'm no fan of Spirit but they could help but opportunities there are just too limited right now. What in your great wisdom is the problem? You clearly think you know everything. How about offer up something instead of just running your mouth like a troll. Put up or shut up.
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flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:11 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


1. Allegiant is NOT a dart board airline. They have not cut a route from IND yet (with the exception of AZA but that’s still listed as suspended, we’ll see what happens there). Every other route has ran consistently on a seasonal or all year around basis year after year.

2. Having G4 and F9 leave IND will hurt the city tremendously. The fares are low because of the type of airline (LCC and ULCC, mainly ULCC). Getting rid of almost all of the ULCC presence will NOT lower prices. It will result DL, AA, UA, and hell even WN to raise their prices.....

Also a good portion of Allegiants nonstop network here (SAV, VPS, CHS, etc.) will not be able to be replaced by anyone else. It’s unique to Allegiants model. Allegiant is an Indy staple and losing them will be simply unrecoverable. (Delta doesn’t have the business model to make a profit on routes like IND-SAV,VPS,CHS) it’s a leisure market and they want (me included) ULCC pricing.


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Just to add to that, if you think the presence of NK/G4/F9 on a route is going to deter a legacy carrier like DL from launching a route they want to own, you're crazy...AA just launched FAR-PHX with two other ULCCs on the route.
 
CplKlinger
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:44 pm

Indy wrote:
Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


Because reducing competition in a market or industry has always been good for the consumer, amiright?

/s

Also, maybe, just maybe, if you tried having a reasonable argument with people, rather than sounding vindictive and calling them trolls, then maybe they would have a reasonable argument back. As it is, you come off as a bit of a blowhard yourself.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:00 pm

Airport released May numbers today:
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0723165059

May pax +4.3%, YTD +1.9%
AA +1.7%
AC +8.1%
AS -40.0%
G4 +7.7%
DL +13.0%
F9 -7.8%
WN -2.5%
UA -3.5%

12 month of double digit growth for DL
May +13.0%
Apr +10.9%
Mar +14.6%
Feb +10.7%
Jan +13.3%
DEC +11.5%
NOV +15.2%
OCT +11.3%
SEP +14.8%
AUG +19.5%
JUL +14.9%
JUN +13.1%


Decided to do a little digging during work:

(Tentative) June-December 2019 seats (-1.2%), departures (-0.8%). Mostly driven by WN/G4/F9/AA in that order. We could see changes up or down depending on MAX or new routes

Looks like June-August is where the bulk of the drop off is. DL's growth will slow from June-August, which won't be able to offset some other losses from other airlines (G4 -14.2%, AS -40.6%, WN -11.5%, e.t.c)

October-December is showing +2.6% seats, but I am not set on the reliability of that number yet considering MAX issues haven't been adjusted in, AA's schedule isn't updated for that time yet, e.t.c. UA/DL are projected to see some solid growth for Q4, which could help.

Overall:
Worst case: Passengers are down 1.2%
Most likely case: Passengers stay flat
Best case: Passengers are up 2.0%

For comparison here are the numbers for IND's neighboring airports June-December:
departures, seats
CVG +0.8%, +0.2%
PIT -2.3%, +0.3% (Drop driven by J1 exit)
STL +2.0%, +4.1%
CMH +5.1%, +7.1%
CLE +1.9%, +8.1%

CplKlinger wrote:
Indy wrote:
Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


Because reducing competition in a market or industry has always been good for the consumer, amiright?

/s

Also, maybe, just maybe, if you tried having a reasonable argument with people, rather than sounding vindictive and calling them trolls, then maybe they would have a reasonable argument back. As it is, you come off as a bit of a blowhard yourself.


To be fair, Indy is the godfather of this thread, and has been on this forum for over a decade
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flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:05 pm

Indy wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Ya really do, pal. And it shows. Everything is Max-related and also the fault of Spirit and Frontier? :rotfl:


No.. you don't. If you don't think MAX has been a big problem you haven't been paying attention. And the problem people are Frontier and Allegiant. I'm no fan of Spirit but they could help but opportunities there are just too limited right now. What in your great wisdom is the problem? You clearly think you know everything. How about offer up something instead of just running your mouth like a troll. Put up or shut up.

You seem to be tiptoeing obtusely around the most likely reason any airline reduces flights or starts/doesn't start routes which is performance. If the economics of a route are strong, a legacy won't be frightened to go up against the ULCCs...so the idea that they're somehow c**kblocking IND from getting "good" airlines from starting the routes you want them to doesn't pass the smell test. The Max situation is crimping capacity everywhere, but the extent to which you're laying the blame there is overblown.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:18 pm

Aside from WN schedule reduction (largely result of MAX and perhaps more strategic reaction...to deploy resources where WN will make more $)...offset by DL, AA increases/upgauging and ULCC increases (overall)....IND pax numbers up modestly YTD....I guess I don't see "the problem that needs to be resolved". Seems to me like market adjustments by WN.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:20 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Indy wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Ya really do, pal. And it shows. Everything is Max-related and also the fault of Spirit and Frontier? :rotfl:


No.. you don't. If you don't think MAX has been a big problem you haven't been paying attention. And the problem people are Frontier and Allegiant. I'm no fan of Spirit but they could help but opportunities there are just too limited right now. What in your great wisdom is the problem? You clearly think you know everything. How about offer up something instead of just running your mouth like a troll. Put up or shut up.

You seem to be tiptoeing obtusely around the most likely reason any airline reduces flights or starts/doesn't start routes which is performance. If the economics of a route are strong, a legacy won't be frightened to go up against the ULCCs...so the idea that they're somehow c**kblocking IND from getting "good" airlines from starting the routes you want them to doesn't pass the smell test. The Max situation is crimping capacity everywhere, but the extent to which you're laying the blame there is overblown.


Small points here:
1. Even if service is viable, if you want service nowadays you have to advocate for it, if an airport isn't going out and recruiting airlines they aren't going to come unless you are ORD, NYC, e.t.c. We have seen this phenomena TATL flights from mid-tier cities. Not saying that is occurring here, but it is just the way it works.
2. WN's MAX cuts have impacted IND more than any other airport of its size
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Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:25 pm

For comparison here are the numbers for IND's neighboring airports June-December:
departures, seats
CVG +0.8%, +0.2%
PIT -2.3%, +0.3% (Drop driven by J1 exit)
STL +2.0%, +4.1%
CMH +5.1%, +7.1%
CLE +1.9%, +8.1%

.....of course SDF somehow didn't make the list of neighboring airports....YTD its' PAX numbers are up 12.5%. (coming off of 11.5% growth the prior year) Dare I even suggest that perhaps some of Southern Indiana catchment that might have gone to IND....might now be selecting SDF? (of course not....why would they ever do that.....).......both Allegiant and Frontier operate at SDF....likely Spirit will join them. Also DL, AA and UA have been upgauging; WN adding DAL and HOU....and lastly.....Boyd Consulting (not to be confused with MidwestIndy consulting) has suggested multiple times in the past few months that SDF (along with 11 other Eastern USA mid-size airports might attract TATL by 2024; imagine SDF-LHR to contend with....)
 
SDFguy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:47 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.

I think you have a fundamental misconception of what's going on in the Indianapolis market.


Don't mind him. He was also extremely adamant that IND was going to get a TPAC flight by the end of 2018. He even pointed to a giant blue box in the IND airport as evidence that ANA was going to start a non-stop to Tokyo. When he got push back on that nonsense, he got very upset about being questioned, just like what you are experiencing.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:52 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
For comparison here are the numbers for IND's neighboring airports June-December:
departures, seats
CVG +0.8%, +0.2%
PIT -2.3%, +0.3% (Drop driven by J1 exit)
STL +2.0%, +4.1%
CMH +5.1%, +7.1%
CLE +1.9%, +8.1%

.....of course SDF somehow didn't make the list of neighboring airports....YTD its' PAX numbers are up 12.5%. (coming off of 11.5% growth the prior year) Dare I even suggest that perhaps some of Southern Indiana catchment that might have gone to IND....might now be selecting SDF? (of course not....why would they ever do that.....).......both Allegiant and Frontier operate at SDF....likely Spirit will join them. Also DL, AA and UA have been upgauging; WN adding DAL and HOU....and lastly.....Boyd Consulting (not to be confused with MidwestIndy consulting) has suggested multiple times in the past few months that SDF (along with 11 other Eastern USA mid-size airports might attract TATL by 2024; imagine SDF-LHR to contend with....)


SDFguy wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.

I think you have a fundamental misconception of what's going on in the Indianapolis market.


Don't mind him. He was also extremely adamant that IND was going to get a TPAC flight by the end of 2018. He even pointed to a giant blue box in the IND airport as evidence that ANA was going to start a non-stop to Tokyo. When he got push back on that nonsense, he got very upset about being questioned, just like what you are experiencing.


Give it a rest
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Fargo
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:10 am

Another challenge facing IND is that it is not a hub or a focus city for a major airline (US3 + WN). Considering I see Indianapolis as one of the stronger economies in the midwest (along with the Twin Cities), I find this surprising.

But as a result, it is more difficult to attract non-ULCC service. I agree with Midwestindy, it's probably time for an investigative piece done.
 
CplKlinger
Posts: 326
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:23 am

Midwestindy wrote:

CplKlinger wrote:
Indy wrote:
Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


Because reducing competition in a market or industry has always been good for the consumer, amiright?

/s

Also, maybe, just maybe, if you tried having a reasonable argument with people, rather than sounding vindictive and calling them trolls, then maybe they would have a reasonable argument back. As it is, you come off as a bit of a blowhard yourself.


To be fair, Indy is the godfather of this thread, and has been on this forum for over a decade


To be fair, he came off as a blowhard. It doesn't matter how long he's been on the forum, he could at the least act like a civil human being. Length of time here doesn't give him the right to act that way. It's people like him acting the way he does that diminishes the value of this forum on a daily basis because he's "been here for over a decade" and can act the fool when he wants. Either way, count me out.
 
ncflyer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:33 am

Fargo wrote:
Another challenge facing IND is that it is not a hub or a focus city for a major airline (US3 + WN). Considering I see Indianapolis as one of the stronger economies in the midwest (along with the Twin Cities), I find this surprising.

But as a result, it is more difficult to attract non-ULCC service. I agree with Midwestindy, it's probably time for an investigative piece done.


You find it surprising when Indy is so close to Chicago?
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 326
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:42 am

Huh? For one thing Bluegrass and SDFguy are different people

Speaking only for me....who in the hell annointed you the Grand Puba of this thread? You have an opinion based on your knowledge/interpretation of the facts of a complicated business. Unless someone is paying you for your advice....suffice to say it is your hobby. Aside ...if you believe SDF unworthy competition to IND....enjoy your world!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:01 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Huh? For one thing Bluegrass and SDFguy are different people

Speaking only for me....who in the hell annointed you the Grand Puba of this thread? You have an opinion based on your knowledge/interpretation of the facts of a complicated business. Unless someone is paying you for your advice....suffice to say it is your hobby. Aside ...if you believe SDF unworthy competition to IND....enjoy your world!


Give it a rest.......SDF has 3 million passengers
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garybow
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:23 am

zackary747 wrote:
Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.


1. Allegiant is NOT a dart board airline. They have not cut a route from IND yet (with the exception of AZA but that’s still listed as suspended, we’ll see what happens there). Every other route has ran consistently on a seasonal or all year around basis year after year.

2. Having G4 and F9 leave IND will hurt the city tremendously. The fares are low because of the type of airline (LCC and ULCC, mainly ULCC). Getting rid of almost all of the ULCC presence will NOT lower prices. It will result DL, AA, UA, and hell even WN to raise their prices.....

Also a good portion of Allegiants nonstop network here (SAV, VPS, CHS, etc.) will not be able to be replaced by anyone else. It’s unique to Allegiants model. Allegiant is an Indy staple and losing them will be simply unrecoverable. (Delta doesn’t have the business model to make a profit on routes like IND-SAV,VPS,CHS) it’s a leisure market and they want (me included) ULCC pricing.


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It is not clear to me that if F9 left the market that anyone would really notice. They have been flying out of Indy for 2 decades and were actually owned for awhile by Indianapolis' own Republic Airways and yet a market brand that equates to near 0. They are the very definition of dart board route/network (remember the Trenton, NJ hub) planning.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:24 am

Tracking to 4.3m this year. By operations, is a busier airport than IND

By economic impact is bigger than IND

IND has a legacy of minihubs and focus going back to Lake Central, Allegheny, USAir, ATA, NW, AirTran and it serves a huge chunk of a state via it's central location





Serves a different market. IND serves a big chunk of Indiana.
 
Jake1993P
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:29 am

Took the IND-CDG flight on 7/11 and it was only about 50% full in economy. Purser greeted us in the boarding area before boarding welcoming us to the "new" flight and encouraged everyone to tell their friends about the flight to keep it going. Delta One went out full. Does anyone know if the CDG flight is being staffed by IND based flight attendants this summer like it was last year?
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:38 am

Tracking to 4.3m this year. By operations, is a busier airport than IND

By economic impact is bigger than IND

IND has a legacy of minihubs and focus going back to Lake Central, Allegheny, USAir, ATA, NW, AirTran and it serves a huge chunk of a state via it's central location

Hello. IND competes directly with CVG, SDF, DAY, FWA, SBN, ORD.

CMH, PIT, CLE, STL are not competing with IND for passengers
 
Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:13 am

I don’t get why people from other airports come into a thread start talking about a different airport in it. Especially getting defensive about it. This is the IND thread, why does it matter if SDF was mentioned or not in a list of a couple other airports? You have your own thread to talk about anything SDF in.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:37 pm

My original post on this particular thread suggested there is nothing major going on at IND other than market adjustments by WN. There was a response that listed neighboring airports....SDF left off which is the posters prerogative....if you fine folks believe that SDF does not compete with IND in the same way it competes with CVG...enjoy your world
 
ATAIndy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:55 pm

To try and clear the air on gate leasing at IND even though it might get buried on the flame war between Midwestern airports...

IND currently has 13 un-leased gates, 4 on concourse B and 9 on concourse A. Don't let the fact that a particular airline RONs a plane at a gate for one arrival and one departure a day cloud the understanding of if that gate is actually leased or on a per-use basis. There is not shortage of gate space, there is however a shortage of RON space
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:28 pm

ATAIndy wrote:
To try and clear the air on gate leasing at IND even though it might get buried on the flame war between Midwestern airports...

IND currently has 13 un-leased gates, 4 on concourse B and 9 on concourse A. Don't let the fact that a particular airline RONs a plane at a gate for one arrival and one departure a day cloud the understanding of if that gate is actually leased or on a per-use basis. There is not shortage of gate space, there is however a shortage of RON space


Thanks for that info. Do you know which gates are leased and by which airline? (List) im curious.


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flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:10 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
My original post on this particular thread suggested there is nothing major going on at IND other than market adjustments by WN. There was a response that listed neighboring airports....SDF left off which is the posters prerogative....if you fine folks believe that SDF does not compete with IND in the same way it competes with CVG...enjoy your world

It's not about being "worthy of competition." This isn't a zero-sum game. This is about comparing like markets. Louisville is almost half the size of Indianapolis and not a peer market in the same way as Cincinnati, Columbus, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, etc. You can't compare apples and oranges.
 
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stl07
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:31 pm

Indy wrote:
IND has a problem that needs to be resolved. They are taking a beating because of the 737 MAX issue. That isn't their fault but it is their problem none the less. They also have a problem in that they have two airlines (F9 and G4) that play darts with a route map and you cannot rely on them from season to season. Their presence may be hurting expansion. They have Spirit which may help a little but that airline can only go so far.

So there are the issues there surrounding three LCCs, and then there is the issue with space. Nobody can expand because of the way the gates are assigned. The only airline really capable of doing serious expanding is Delta. They are growing fast but cannot do it all alone. They could grow faster but I don't think they are going to absorb all of the risk. If the IAA wants to offset the WN loses and overcome the blockage created by G4 and F9, they will need to offer up more incentives (maybe combined with the city/state) to get Delta to add more point to point service. This is their one best chance at IND growing the operation over the next couple of years. There really aren't going to be many opportunities elsewhere. Something needs to be worked out to get prices down. Fares are out of control and that is going to hurt growth.

Part of me wishes that G4 and F9 would leave town. I think it would clean up the market and allow serious airlines to expand. Just my thought on this.

I think that G4 is helping the market as they are not as dartboardy as F9 is, but F9 is certainly causing harm. Here in STL, nobody has added West Palm Beach or JAX (even though SY and WN would be perfect for those markets) as they assumed F9 would be on it, and low and behold, F9 didn't include them on the next winter schedule.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:57 pm

Jake1993P wrote:
Took the IND-CDG flight on 7/11 and it was only about 50% full in economy. Purser greeted us in the boarding area before boarding welcoming us to the "new" flight and encouraged everyone to tell their friends about the flight to keep it going. Delta One went out full. Does anyone know if the CDG flight is being staffed by IND based flight attendants this summer like it was last year?


Yes I believe so
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beerbus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:12 am

Jake1993P wrote:
Took the IND-CDG flight on 7/11 and it was only about 50% full in economy. Purser greeted us in the boarding area before boarding welcoming us to the "new" flight and encouraged everyone to tell their friends about the flight to keep it going. Delta One went out full. Does anyone know if the CDG flight is being staffed by IND based flight attendants this summer like it was last year?


Yes, the IND CDG Flights are staffed by IND based flight attendants.

They are required to reside within about 70 miles of KIND to be assigned to the base.

The base is currently seasonal. The base is scheduled to remain open thru the end of October.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:28 am

Absolutely baffling that the state would shut down the one highway going directly from the airport to downtown Indy........at the exact same time 65,000 people are coming into the city....

Hard to see how shutting down the entire interstate for a whole week was the only option they thought was feasible, when the airport will basically be at capacity tomorrow
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IndyHoosier
Posts: 76
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:20 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Absolutely baffling that the state would shut down the one highway going directly from the airport to downtown Indy........at the exact same time 65,000 people are coming into the city....

Hard to see how shutting down the entire interstate for a whole week was the only option they thought was feasible, when the airport will basically be at capacity tomorrow


INDOT rarely does anything that makes sense.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 378
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:51 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
For comparison here are the numbers for IND's neighboring airports June-December:
departures, seats
CVG +0.8%, +0.2%
PIT -2.3%, +0.3% (Drop driven by J1 exit)
STL +2.0%, +4.1%
CMH +5.1%, +7.1%
CLE +1.9%, +8.1%

.....of course SDF somehow didn't make the list of neighboring airports....YTD its' PAX numbers are up 12.5%. (coming off of 11.5% growth the prior year) Dare I even suggest that perhaps some of Southern Indiana catchment that might have gone to IND....might now be selecting SDF? (of course not....why would they ever do that.....).......both Allegiant and Frontier operate at SDF....likely Spirit will join them. Also DL, AA and UA have been upgauging; WN adding DAL and HOU....and lastly.....Boyd Consulting (not to be confused with MidwestIndy consulting) has suggested multiple times in the past few months that SDF (along with 11 other Eastern USA mid-size airports might attract TATL by 2024; imagine SDF-LHR to contend with....)

Louisville can often be more convenient, even as far north as Columbus and Bloomington. Parking is certainly MUCH cheaper and easier to navigate, than an economy lot a mile away from the terminal. YX reopeninga crew base in SDF will Also have some effect, as CRj’s and sevens get replaced with 175’s.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:52 am

ATAIndy wrote:
To try and clear the air on gate leasing at IND even though it might get buried on the flame war between Midwestern airports...

IND currently has 13 un-leased gates, 4 on concourse B and 9 on concourse A. Don't let the fact that a particular airline RONs a plane at a gate for one arrival and one departure a day cloud the understanding of if that gate is actually leased or on a per-use basis. There is not shortage of gate space, there is however a shortage of RON space

Excellent note.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:19 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Louisville can often be more convenient, even as far north as Columbus and Bloomington.

How? Drive time to SDF is double what it is to IND from both of those locations. They even offer shuttle service to IND from those locations if people really don't want to drive.
FlyingElvii wrote:
Parking is certainly MUCH cheaper and easier to navigate, than an economy lot a mile away from the terminal.


Parking at IND is very straight forward since it is a brand new terminal. Did some research, and if you are focussed on price the economy lot prices are almost identical between IND and SDF.
FlyingElvii wrote:
YX reopening crew base in SDF will Also have some effect, as CRj’s and sevens get replaced with 175’s.

Not sure it will change anything, I am pretty sure Louisville has been a crew and mx base for a while
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Absolutely baffling that the state would shut down the one highway going directly from the airport to downtown Indy........at the exact same time 65,000 people are coming into the city....

Hard to see how shutting down the entire interstate for a whole week was the only option they thought was feasible, when the airport will basically be at capacity tomorrow


It's INDOT - you really think they have a brain? They're the same people that decided to close off every other road going into Bloomington during IU move-in weekend; or, a few years back, decided that dumping a gajillion cars that traveled on I-65 northbound from Indy to Chicago onto country roads is a good idea.

FlyingElvii wrote:
Louisville can often be more convenient, even as far north as Columbus and Bloomington.


Umm...no.

From Bloomington it takes a little bit over an hour to get INTO IND's terminal even if I parked at the long-term parking, even during the I-69 construction mess. Meanwhile, it takes me 1 hour just to get to Columbus, IN (if I go east from Bloomington) or somewhere around Mitchell, IN (If I go south then turn southeast).

Plus SDF fares are never that much cheaper than IND, at least not enough of a difference for me to drive an additional hour.

Columbus IN, yes, since the time difference is not big between SDF and IND. Further east of I-65 you're getting into CVG's territory.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:09 pm

Plus you have to think about the $8 roundtrip toll on the bridges to SDF

People in Evansville are the one area that has a lot of options with IND BNA and SDF.

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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:21 pm

Nothing baffling about the road closure.

1. Gives crews full access to all lanes and all drainage system the entire time. Lets them come in, get the work done, and get the hell out.
2. Ground temperature and conditions are right - do it all now and not have to come back 3 or 4 times later paying more for contracting.
3. People drive like total morons through construction zones. The distraction and concerns while on the job is gone.
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ATAIndy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:47 pm

stlgph wrote:
3. People drive like total morons through construction zones. The distraction and concerns while on the job is gone.


Exceedingly true. Every time I work with contractors who don't have a lot of experience on airfield construction projects they always comment on how safe the work site conditions are compared to highway construction.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:13 pm

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0802121100

June ' 19 vs. '18 pax growth 0.0% (+212)
YOY growth +1.5%

Numbers appear to be slightly off with regards to Int'l passengers, so these numbers may change. For now it currently shows a -35.9% drop off in int'l passengers

June 2019 Market Share (June 2018)
WN-28.9% (31.6%)
DL-25.6% (23.9%)

AA-20.9%
UA-11.3%
G4-6.4%
NK-2.5%
F9-2.3%
AS-1.2%

June 2019 vs. June 2018
AS-(-35.6%)
AC-(-5.5%)
G4-(-3.4%)
AA-(+0.4%)
DL-(+7.2%)
F9-(+2.2%)
WN-(-8.4%)
UA-(-3.4%)
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Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:12 am

Midwestindy wrote:
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/iaa-images/reports/06_JUNE-Airline-Activity-Report_FINAL.pdf?mtime=20190802121100

June ' 19 vs. '18 pax growth 0.0% (+212)
YOY growth +1.5%

Numbers appear to be slightly off with regards to Int'l passengers, so these numbers may change. For now it currently shows a -35.9% drop off in int'l passengers



Why is intl down so much?
 
garybow
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:58 am

Based on all the obvious errors in this report, I wouldn't take anything from it. Sloppy work. Maybe they have some one new doing it.
It was up on the site for several days but you couldn't download til I contacted them to point that out.

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