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Bluegrass60
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:27 pm

Airboss....I really don't get you folks. Midwest posted "IND is in a very unique position to have an entire state 100% behind pushing for more air service at one airport."

My response ""Curious if 100% of the state understands that some their tax money is going to fund current and potential subsidies for air service at IND. Why would Indiana residents of Cinci Metro or Chicagoland or Louisville Metro want any of their Indiana state taxes go to fund air service at an airport they rarely or never use?; to fund an airport that does not really drive economic growth in their part of Indiana? Do residents of FWA, EVV, SBB or Gary also support their taxes supporting air service dev at IND?....Sorta seems like the same mentality that allowed state support of various other sports facilities in Indy all tied to "Hoosier Pride". "

Midwest responded: "Bluegrass....not that this post is worth my time, but you need to rid yourself of the napoleon complex you have toward airports surrounding SDF. Your posts are all some sort of tear down of IND or BNA, it’s incredibly weird."

Huh? WTF did I say to offend?
 
ThaneC
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:46 pm

I sincerely wish that both Midwestindy and Bluegrass60 would cease the ongoing boosterism and cheerleading posts for their respective cities. Both IND and SDF are good mid-sized airports, especially for cargo. Please put down the Pom Poms, they make you both look ridiculous.
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:18 pm

ThaneC wrote:
I sincerely wish that both Midwestindy and Bluegrass60 would cease the ongoing boosterism and cheerleading posts for their respective cities. Both IND and SDF are good mid-sized airports, especially for cargo. Please put down the Pom Poms, they make you both look ridiculous.


Nothing Midwestindy has stated is ridiculous. The stupidity and trolling is purely one sided
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:20 pm

People need to just hit the foe button on each other and let it go. None of this is worth wasting time arguing over.
 
SDFguy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
SDFguy wrote:
Oh my, not this IND flight to Asia nonsense again!

Weren't you Indy fanboys 100% adamant that the flight was going to be announced by the end of 2018?

Who cares how many Japanese auto factories are in the state. Do you think assembly line workers are traveling to Tokyo???

Who cares how "aggressive" the state of Indiana is with their subsidies. If that is all that mattered, IND would have the flight by now.

This whole conversation is so absurd.


Bluegrass....not that this post is worth my time, but you need to rid yourself of the napoleon complex you have toward airports surrounding SDF.

Your posts are all some sort of tear down of IND or BNA, it’s incredibly weird.


Uh, I'm not the same person as the poster Bluegrass. Another absurd statement from you. When you can't dispute the facts, you resort to attacking the poster.
 
kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:59 pm

Indy wrote:

Nothing Midwestindy has stated is ridiculous. The stupidity and trolling is purely one sided


I agree 100%. Midwestindy is weight balanced as you'll find on a.net. Check his posts - they are factural, followed up by supporting evidence, and even when conjecture they are supported by evidence and labeled as such. Heck I am even pretty sure I know who he is IRL and if I"m right you'd be insane to question his authority on matters about IND.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:15 pm

kindeham wrote:
Indy wrote:

Nothing Midwestindy has stated is ridiculous. The stupidity and trolling is purely one sided


I agree 100%. Midwestindy is weight balanced as you'll find on a.net. Check his posts - they are factural, followed up by supporting evidence, and even when conjecture they are supported by evidence and labeled as such. Heck I am even pretty sure I know who he is IRL and if I"m right you'd be insane to question his authority on matters about IND.


Agreed.
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Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:22 am

I love the passion that INDY has for their airport. I wish we had half as much at my home airport, AUS. Give me a daily on DL between the two and I'll jump for joy!
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:36 am

Wacko55 wrote:
I love the passion that INDY has for their airport. I wish we had half as much at my home airport, AUS. Give me a daily on DL between the two and I'll jump for joy!


I think a lot of the AUS fans got chased off after the whole DL focus city hype debate. It is a shame, because AUS is one of the more interesting airports right now.

I also respect Midwestindy and his contributions to the site. While I don’t always agree, I appreciate him at least attempting to have factual discussions. It’s a shame certain users have to resort to trolling and making false accusations.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:05 am

Hopefully someday AUS will be able to compare to BNA but I seriously doubt it. AUS isn't in the same universe as BNA.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:13 am

Wacko55 wrote:
Hopefully someday AUS will be able to compare to BNA but I seriously doubt it. AUS isn't in the same universe as BNA.


This comment doesn’t any sense to me for a lot of reasons. Starting with why it was made on an IND thread and has nothing to do with IND and neither of those airports have been mentioned.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:38 am

Your right. AUS and BNA are not in the same league as IND. They should not be spoken of in the IND thread. Both AUS and BNA will have a little more than 7+ million more passengers this year compared to IND. Sorry to include IND when speaking of AUS and BNA. Just like reading the thread.....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:58 pm

No major changes came in this morning, the next big schedule change looks to be Southwest's Summer Schedule extension on Wednesday.

This will likely be an important schedule extension for IND as WN holds a large market share on west coast routes from IND. SAN, LAX, PHX, DEN, and OAK saw sizable capacity drop offs yoy last summer and as a result LFs went up to 91-96%, and it will be interesting to see whether there will be further reduction next year and the impact that could have on other carriers.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
For May-August:
AS IND-SEA-94.1%; SEA-IND-94.4% (B739)

DL IND-SEA-94.8%; SEA-IND-95.3% (A319)
DL IND-LAX-92.8%; LAX-IND-92.9% (B738)
DL IND-SLC-92.6%; SLC-IND-94.3% (B738)
DL IND-MSP-91.9%; MSP-IND-89.2% (Mix)

AA IND-LAX-95.4%; LAX-IND-92.4% (A319)
AA IND-PHX-93.7%; PHX-IND-95.7% (A319)

WN IND-LAX-95.5%; LAX-IND-95.4%
WN IND-PHX-91.8%; PHX-IND-89.9%
WN IND-SAN-90.4%; SAN-IND-93.2%

UA IND-DEN-93.0%; DEN-IND-92.6% (Mostly RJ)

Strong candidates for upguaging/additional service next summer


The first of the additional frequencies have arrived, AS IND-SEA is going 2x daily this summer.

Departures from IND are now: 8AM (A320) & 6:30PM (B739), with DL still operating its 6:21PM (A319) this summer.

The new inbound flight will be a red-eye landing at 6:40AM, which might impact G4's ability to use B5.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:43 pm

I was wondering if AS would add a 2nd frequency I saw PIT got one and was curious if IND would too.

Sucks AS doesn't have more aircraft in the 140 seat range.

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:16 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
I was wondering if AS would add a 2nd frequency I saw PIT got one and was curious if IND would too.


Looking at the schedules, it appears this new flight is more O&D focused compared to the 6pm flights. I do hope that the increased Pacific Northwest connectivity, will stimulate PDEW enough to entice a carrier to add IND-PDX.

I'm interested to see if DL makes any changes to its IND-MSP/SEA schedules as a result of this
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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:25 am

How much more does it cost to operate at IND vs SDF ?
 
baw716
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:35 am

Well, its time for me to enter this fray...

A couple of points:
1. Any nonstops to overseas markets from IND need to be serviced by one aircraft. Any two aircraft operation in this market is simply not viable. There isn't the O&D traffic to support it.
2. I don't have any figures on DL's IND-CDG, but I would imagine that it doesn't do very well on its own. It is fed, oddly enough, by the IND-SEA service. I think that isn't intentional...the IND-SEA is timed to go toe to toe with AS. Silly as that seems, since they would be better served to feed Asia through SEA from here, but then again, it would pull traffic away from MSP/DTW which are operated partially by EDV and RPA, which provide cost savings vs. placing their own metal on those routes. The DL upgauge of SLC to a 738 is an interesting move as it provides more west coast feed out of SLC...

A MEX service makes way more sense and frankly, would build Skyteam market share here without DL having to invest to do it. It is well within the range of any 737 variant that AM has in their fleet, so that is an easy add. I don't see DL adding any additional service into IND since AMS is served so heavily out of DTW and since DL uses the 767 very effectively in secondary markets to CDG feeding into AF there. For people going to the UK from IND, it's a great alternative.

As far as Star Alliance is concerned, because of their huge presence at ORD and UA/UAX feeding it effectively from here, I really don't see them pursuing a European flight here and Asia is simply too far away (and too heavily served from ORD) to make economic sense.

OneWorld is the one interesting animal. I don't see AA adding any international flying here. BA could operate a LHR flight which would provide feed beyond the gateway, but that would require a 787 and I don't see them pulling a 787 from their EMEA flying to do that.

As for FI... as much as I would LOVE them to fly here, that's unrealistic. Their situation at the moment with the 737MAX has them in a situation in which they are leasing aircraft (mostly 767s) and placing them in markets where they can sub one 767 for two 757 flights (AMS, LHR, SEA) or utilizing the longer legs of the 767 on routes that the 757 is not efficient (think California to Iceland). Until their MAX problem is resolved and they start getting those frames, don't expect to see any growth from FI in the near term future.

What is more realistic is increased RJ by all three majors into IND, especially with RPA picking up the extra 30 frames from Compass, there will be additional flying to DTW and BOS as a result. RPA is still anticipated to receive another 100 frames likely for UAX. AA will continue growth to their fortress hub in MIA as that will be under some attack from DL as a result of their investment in LATAM. Who knows, you might even see DLX flying to MIA...

That is way more likely than Asia service....
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:33 am

baw716 wrote:

2. I don't have any figures on DL's IND-CDG, but I would imagine that it doesn't do very well on its own. It is fed, oddly enough, by the IND-SEA service.

That is way more likely than Asia service....


I am curious why you think SEA feeds IND-CDG considering that SEA has two DL nonstops to CDG? Surely there aren't so many people taking a connection in IND over a nonstop all the while adding another 3-4 hours to their travel time that they actually feed the IND-CDG flight. Not to mention there is a dozen or more other connection options available.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:27 pm

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1209081147
October Statistics

Overall terrible month from the airport, which is highly surprising. Although something seems off about the AA numbers:
Total Passengers October YOY: -3.1%
Total YTD: +0.8%
Int'l October/YTD: +17.5%/+28.8%
Cargo October/YTD: -0.5%/-4.1%

October Market Share-(Growth/decline in Pax)
WN-28.4%-(-11.8%)
DL-26.9%-(+8.7%)
AA-18.6%-(-18.7%)
UA-13.4%-(+4.6%)
G4-5.8%-(+2.3%)
NK-2.4%
F9-2.4%-(-15.2%)
AS-1.2%-(+1.4%)
AC-0.8%-(+5.6%)

Not sure how in the world fell AA fell by that many passengers, as my guidance had AA only losing seeing a decline of 1.9% seats for October. I can't think of a reason why AA could have lost 35,451 passengers in one month. F9 loses were better than expected after AUS & SAN were cut, and WN was in line with expectations.

Looks to be excellent growth for the CDG flight in October 2019 though
Pax/Seats available
CDG-IND-4468/4957-90.1%~203 pax per flight
IND-CDG-3989/4957-80.5%~181 pax per flight

Compared to 2018
CDG-IND-72.3%-233,622 cargo~162 pax per flight
IND-CDG-59.3%-70,612 cargo~131 pax per flight

COSPN wrote:
How much more does it cost to operate at IND vs SDF ?


I know SDF's CPE is below or around $5, which is obviously much lower than IND's
kindeham wrote:
baw716 wrote:

2. I don't have any figures on DL's IND-CDG, but I would imagine that it doesn't do very well on its own. It is fed, oddly enough, by the IND-SEA service.

That is way more likely than Asia service....


I am curious why you think SEA feeds IND-CDG considering that SEA has two DL nonstops to CDG? Surely there aren't so many people taking a connection in IND over a nonstop all the while adding another 3-4 hours to their travel time that they actually feed the IND-CDG flight. Not to mention there is a dozen or more other connection options available.


Not saying IND-CDG is propped up by IND-SEA, but there are definitely at least a few connecting passengers on each flight. IND is almost always one of the top connecting options for SEA, especially when SEA-CDG is once daily.

Not sure if it is SEA or somewhere else, but I have been in the baggage claim area a couple times when the CDG flight arrives, and I always have overheard people asking for directions for their connecting flights since there is no signage to tell people where to go.
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:53 pm

When Northwest added Seattle for the summers the departure time was at 10 a.m. The discussion here was how nice the departure played into the cruise ship departures out of Seattle. Unless the cruise lines have all changed their in and out times, I imagine there will be some gain from the cruises for the new departure time.
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jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
October Market Share-(Growth/decline in Pax)
AA-18.6%-(-18.7%)
Not sure how in the world fell AA fell by that many passengers, as my guidance had AA only losing seeing a decline of 1.9% seats for October. I can't think of a reason why AA could have lost 35,451 passengers in one month.


AA had to cut some flights due to the 737 MAX grounding. AA also had nonstop competition from other carriers on most of its nonstop routes out of IND (including G4 IND-FLL, DL IND-LAX/LGA/JFK, WN IND-BWI/MDW/DAL/FLL/LAX/PHX, and UA IND-ORD/EWR/IAD) whereas IND-CLT and IND-PHL are the only AA nonstop routes out of IND that do not have any nonstop competition.

AA also probably did lose some passengers to competitors on its IND-ORD, IND-DFW, IND-LAX, IND-MIA, IND-LGA, IND-JFK, IND-PHX, and IND-DCA nonstop routes. In addition, there were also probably some passengers in IND who chose connecting options through non-AA hub airports on DL, UA, or WN over connecting options through AA hub cities.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Looks to be excellent growth for the CDG flight in October 2019 though
Pax/Seats available
CDG-IND-4468/4957-90.1%~203 pax per flight
IND-CDG-3989/4957-80.5%~181 pax per flight

Compared to 2018
CDG-IND-72.3%-233,622 cargo~162 pax per flight
IND-CDG-59.3%-70,612 cargo~131 pax per flight

Are those your estimates for CDG or has DOT released numbers early? Always thought there was several-month lag in international reporting.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:52 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Looks to be excellent growth for the CDG flight in October 2019 though
Pax/Seats available
CDG-IND-4468/4957-90.1%~203 pax per flight
IND-CDG-3989/4957-80.5%~181 pax per flight

Compared to 2018
CDG-IND-72.3%-233,622 cargo~162 pax per flight
IND-CDG-59.3%-70,612 cargo~131 pax per flight

Are those your estimates for CDG or has DOT released numbers early? Always thought there was several-month lag in international reporting.


For September, October, and November, you can simply subtract total int'l passengers by Air Canada's numbers to find the Load Factors of the CDG flights, since those months do not have any other international service.

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
October Market Share-(Growth/decline in Pax)
AA-18.6%-(-18.7%)
Not sure how in the world fell AA fell by that many passengers, as my guidance had AA only losing seeing a decline of 1.9% seats for October. I can't think of a reason why AA could have lost 35,451 passengers in one month.


AA had to cut some flights due to the 737 MAX grounding. AA also had nonstop competition from other carriers on most of its nonstop routes out of IND (including G4 IND-FLL, DL IND-LAX/LGA/JFK, WN IND-BWI/MDW/DAL/FLL/LAX/PHX, and UA IND-ORD/EWR/IAD) whereas IND-CLT and IND-PHL are the only AA nonstop routes out of IND that do not have any nonstop competition.

AA also probably did lose some passengers to competitors on its IND-ORD, IND-DFW, IND-LAX, IND-MIA, IND-LGA, IND-JFK, IND-PHX, and IND-DCA nonstop routes. In addition, there were also probably some passengers in IND who chose connecting options through non-AA hub airports on DL, UA, or WN over connecting options through AA hub cities.


As I mentioned in the post you quoted, I kept track of AA's schedule changes for October, the only major change was the loss of the 2nd daily LAX flight resulting in an overall loss of 1.9% of seats YOY.

WN dropped their LAX flight in October, so there would be very little reason for AA to lose pax to WN on that route. WN also dropped the IND-MDW flight during the weekdays I believe, so again no reason for a decrease there.

There doesn't seem to be a logical reason behind the massive loss of passengers, other than a dramatic shift in demand or an error in the numbers
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:17 pm

Those are pretty good gains ( I would say ) YoY for the CDG flight.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:11 pm

Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.
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jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:44 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


BA adding IND-LHR nonstop service is a possibility as BA already serves LHR nonstop from some non-AA hub airports in the U.S. such as ATL, AUS, BWI, BOS, DEN, IAH, LAS, BNA, MSY, EWR, PIT, SAN, SFO, SJC, SEA, and IAD. BA also would be able to offer 1-stop connections to many other destinations in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and India from IND through LHR if it adds IND-LHR nonstop service.

Even though EI doesn't serve as many markets nonstop from DUB than BA does from LHR, EI would be able to offer 1-stop connections to some Western European destinations from IND through DUB if it adds IND-DUB nonstop service.
 
airboss787
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:12 pm

I can see at most 1 TATL route, either LHR or DUB. My bet is on LHR for the sheer scope of connections. I would be shocked to see 2 TATL routes by 2021. I also dont see any Asia happening by then. My prediction is 2 Mexican/LatAm destinations. MEX and something else in the area and LHR (if they do in fact manage 2-3 intl destinations/flights).
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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:27 pm

DUB ?? I don’t see how that will help the Indiana economy ..they do have US customs. In DUB same as YYZ so can use any gate at IND
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:49 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


There was a specific mention that the IND-CDG flight was over performing, so it seems like at least 1 would be TATL. The others probably being, Latin America or Canada.

Should be interesting to see what DL plans to do, they must know their days of a monopoly on TATL from IND are likely finished, will they double down or pick up and go?
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:14 pm

IND-CDG is "over performing?"

Sure. It's not even 7 days a week year around and it sucked its subsidies down more than a half a year ahead of the funding period.
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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:28 pm

YUL would be reasonable addition and provide more to the economy than DUB
 
IndyHoosier
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:42 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


There was a specific mention that the IND-CDG flight was over performing, so it seems like at least 1 would be TATL. The others probably being, Latin America or Canada.

Should be interesting to see what DL plans to do, they must know their days of a monopoly on TATL from IND are likely finished, will they double down or pick up and go?


Do you think DL would leave if BA entered the market, like they did in PIT? If that's a possibility, what's the point in the state subsidizing a second flight, just to have the first flight end?
 
IndyHoosier
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:43 pm

stlgph wrote:
IND-CDG is "over performing?"

Sure. It's not even 7 days a week year around and it sucked its subsidies down more than a half a year ahead of the funding period.


The way the IND-CDG subsidy is structured, isn't it a good thing that the subsidies ran out ahead of schedule?
 
airboss787
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:08 pm

stlgph wrote:
Sure. It's not even 7 days a week year around and it sucked its subsidies down more than a half a year ahead of the funding period.


That's great news that it sucked all its subsidies that early since the subsidy is based on the number of people traveling. More the travelers, more subsidy sucked. So that does bode well for the route. Not all over-performing routes need to be daily year-round. There is still scope for it to do that though.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:10 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
stlgph wrote:
IND-CDG is "over performing?"

Sure. It's not even 7 days a week year around and it sucked its subsidies down more than a half a year ahead of the funding period.


The way the IND-CDG subsidy is structured, isn't it a good thing that the subsidies ran out ahead of schedule?


Correct. The more butts onboard the quicker they got the subsidy money. The fact the subsidy money got drained so quickly is a good thing due to the structure
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:12 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


There was a specific mention that the IND-CDG flight was over performing, so it seems like at least 1 would be TATL. The others probably being, Latin America or Canada.

Should be interesting to see what DL plans to do, they must know their days of a monopoly on TATL from IND are likely finished, will they double down or pick up and go?


Do you think DL would leave if BA entered the market, like they did in PIT? If that's a possibility, what's the point in the state subsidizing a second flight, just to have the first flight end?


I see IND being in more of a RDU situation than a PIT one. PIT couldn't fill up a 757 in the winter while IND has shown so far in the second year that they can fill it in the winter. September going to daily and the strong October numbers this year prove that thus far. If we continue to match the loads of the CVG and RDU flight to Paris then I see no issue there. The larger DL presence here helps as well. INDs DL presence is more like RDU and less like PIT. AA has a larger market share in PIT.
Last edited by zackary747 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:12 pm

stlgph wrote:
IND-CDG is "over performing?"

Sure. It's not even 7 days a week year around and it sucked its subsidies down more than a half a year ahead of the funding period.


The flight is overperforming, as mentioned before, the incentives were based on how many passengers the flight carried. If the flight carriers more passengers than expected, then the incentives get used up more quickly. In short, the quicker the incentives get used up the better the flight is doing, which happened here. Looking at September & October (the two months we have to compare) there was tremendous growth from Year 1 to Year 2.

Not being 7 days a week year round is extremely common:
SLC-AMS/CDG are not daily year round, SLC-CDG goes down to 4x weekly
RDU/CVG-CDG are not daily year round
PDX/MCO-AMS are not daily year round
BNA/MSY/PIT-LHR are not daily year round

There are likely quite a few more, needless to say that shouldn't impact IND getting an additional seasonal summer TATL flight

IndyHoosier wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


There was a specific mention that the IND-CDG flight was over performing, so it seems like at least 1 would be TATL. The others probably being, Latin America or Canada.

Should be interesting to see what DL plans to do, they must know their days of a monopoly on TATL from IND are likely finished, will they double down or pick up and go?


Do you think DL would leave if BA entered the market, like they did in PIT? If that's a possibility, what's the point in the state subsidizing a second flight, just to have the first flight end?


LHR is a more important destination for IND travelers (O&D wise), and that was the justification PIT used for attracting BA at what ended up being the expense of DL.

I think the justification would be (if DL were to drop out) that the CDG flight was, in a sense, a "test flight" to prove that the market could support TATL service.

IND is a more significant DL station than PIT though, so even if BA were to come in, there is good reason for DL to stick in the market to defend its FF base.
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flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:14 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Governor Holcomb's 2020 Next Level Agenda is out and can be viewed on the in.gov website.

Eric Holcomb says the goal is to have 2 to 3 more nonstop international flights up and running by the end of 2021. Specific routes were not mentioned. The state still has 25 million dollars to use to attract these flights.


There was a specific mention that the IND-CDG flight was over performing, so it seems like at least 1 would be TATL. The others probably being, Latin America or Canada.

Should be interesting to see what DL plans to do, they must know their days of a monopoly on TATL from IND are likely finished, will they double down or pick up and go?


Do you think DL would leave if BA entered the market, like they did in PIT? If that's a possibility, what's the point in the state subsidizing a second flight, just to have the first flight end?

Airlines usually don't take kindly to having a direct competitor being subsidized against them.
 
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stl07
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:37 pm

Get more flights to Mexico, Canada, and Central/South America. Don't be PIT
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:05 am

Airline subsidies cover short falls .... in revenue.

But I mean, I guess we're so busy talking about how British Airways is going to announce next week and Japan Airlines will be announcing next year that we forgot about that.
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BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:17 am

stlgph wrote:
Airline subsidies cover short falls .... in revenue.

But I mean, I guess we're so busy talking about how British Airways is going to announce next week and Japan Airlines will be announcing next year that we forgot about that.


Hey dcaproducer, you gonna come call this guy out?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:28 am

stl07 wrote:
Get more flights to Mexico, Canada, and Central/South America. Don't be PIT

:white:

stlgph wrote:
Airline subsidies cover short falls .... in revenue.


What's your point? It's been explained how the subsidies for this flight are structured differently

stlgph wrote:
But I mean, I guess we're so busy talking about how British Airways is going to announce next week and Japan Airlines will be announcing next year that we forgot about that.


There was no one on this thread claiming BA or JAL were planning to announce IND in the immediate future. Just (logical) speculation that if another TATL were to come to IND, which seems likely at this point, it would likely be BA.

https://www.theindychannel.com/news/pol ... 020-agenda
"Mexico City and other European cities are being targeted, officials say"
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:50 am

No, subsidies for the flight aren't any different than what a subsidy is because of a "structure" i.e. spin for handing out millions in free revenue in a conservative state. At the end of the day, a subsidy is a subsidy: It's free government check to pay for a short fall in revenue ... you know, for a flight that is "over performing."
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:47 am

stlgph wrote:
No, subsidies for the flight aren't any different than what a subsidy is because of a "structure" i.e. spin for handing out millions in free revenue in a conservative state. At the end of the day, a subsidy is a subsidy: It's free government check to pay for a short fall in revenue ... you know, for a flight that is "over performing."


I don't understand what you're on about. The subsidy for most flights have to be paid out regardless of how well it performs or not. The IND-CDG subsidy is clearly structured to only be paid out if the flight is filling up. And lets be real here. 5 million is peanuts to Delta.

To sit there and say all subsidies are created equal is incorrect. The structure means everything. If they were all equal then there wouldn't be different ways of using them.
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BerenErchamion
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:10 pm

The best argument you can make at this point is that maybe "subsidy" isn't strictly speaking the most ideal word to use for this.

OK then, call it an incentive, bonus, etc.

Whatever it is, it is definitely the case in this particular situation that the fact that it was paid out more quickly than expected is a sign that the flight is doing better than expected.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:16 pm

BerenErchamion wrote:
The best argument you can make at this point is that maybe "subsidy" isn't strictly speaking the most ideal word to use for this.

OK then, call it an incentive, bonus, etc.

Whatever it is, it is definitely the case in this particular situation that the fact that it was paid out more quickly than expected is a sign that the flight is doing better than expected.

They were essentially offering a $50-$70 per ticket subsidy.
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:47 pm

BerenErchamion wrote:
The best argument you can make at this point is that maybe "subsidy" isn't strictly speaking the most ideal word to use for this.

OK then, call it an incentive, bonus, etc.

Whatever it is, it is definitely the case in this particular situation that the fact that it was paid out more quickly than expected is a sign that the flight is doing better than expected.


Is it? Because it sure is great to lower prices to put butts in seats in periods of lower than normal economy and basic economy prices and some slight rearrangement of group travel opportunities to collect faster. Might want to start watching those fares more closely....

And to be clear - I'm not championing the end or the demise of the Delta flight or the service to Paris. I'd mentioned it here many times I want to see it succeed - and one way of helping it succeed is letting it be, grow, and mature into something that's great and solid. I'd rather see the subsidies continue a third year if needed rather than freely spending the money on bringing in other carriers to cannibalize a great opportunity because of "look at me" vanity. But one thing is for sure - until there's a few solid months of going at this without *any* subsidies, I would take any commentary from any government official that this route is "over performing" with a nice big huge laugh. Could the lay of the land be different next summer going into the fall/winter? Absolutely. Hopefully it's for the better.
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beerbus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:47 pm

stlgph wrote:
No, subsidies for the flight aren't any different than what a subsidy is because of a "structure" i.e. spin for handing out millions in free revenue in a conservative state. At the end of the day, a subsidy is a subsidy: It's free government check to pay for a short fall in revenue ... you know, for a flight that is "over performing."


I would contend there is an out of context use of the term "over performing" in conjunction with the subsidy that was offered as an incentive to bring new service to IND. They wouldn't be offered if they were frequently unsuccessful.

It is very common through out the world for airports to offer incentives to entice new service in markets that have no historic track record of success.

I doubt that without the incentive, DL would have started the IND CDG service. The use of "over performance" in is instance only means (as others have pointed out) that the per passenger incentive was burned through faster than expected. And as others as stated- that is a good problem to have.

On the other hand- if there was still per-passenger incentive money left at year-end, then the flight could be looked upon as under-performing in this context.

My industry background educated me that incentives don't cover "short falls" in revenue. Instead- they give an airline an incentive to move a city pair up the list of purposed new markets to serve.

With few exceptions (essential air markets for example) no airline is going to enter a market that cannot survive without subsidies. Again- subsidies are not used to cover revenue deficiencies. When subsidies end, a money losing city pair is terminated. Look at UA's service to interior China markets as an example.

Those markets had no previous track record. United could have used their assets in other markets, but the incentives incentified UA to take a shot at new USA China markets. Time proved that yields were insufficient to operate the flight long-term. The flights were ended.

The IND CDG situation is different- loads and yields are superior to those cancelled UA China flights. There has been good connecting traffic on the flight over CDG. I have personally flown this flight and seen the connecting bag tags on baggage spinning aroud the carousel at IND.

DL has had good success in filling the front cabin with high-yield traffic. Each ticket is $4-5000 ONE WAY. Those passengers ensure the profitability of the flight- not incentives.

30 years ago, the State of Indiana provided millions dollars in incentives to Subaru-Isuzu Automotive in Lafayette Indiana. (some of that money went indirectly to NW to fly new-hire trainees to NRT) Can you imagine the difference in the local Lafayette community if those incentives had not been offered, and that plant was built in another state? I would contend that "subsidy" was an investment in Indiana's employment infrastructure, no different that money appropriated every year to nearby Purdue University to ensure a highly trained future indiana workforce.

I don't see much difference in the IND CDG investment.
 
ncflyer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:11 pm

Incentives are a classic prisoners dilemma. We taxpayers are all worse off because of them. Indy is making it more expensive for every other mid sized airport, including themselves, to attract future service.

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