Please continue from last year's thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382403

2019 predictions:
DL adds IND-TPA, maybe IND-AUS
B6 enters the market via BOS
AA drops JFK
G4 adds 1-2 new routes
No real changes on the International side in 2019. CDG does fine, and it's possible that AC announces IND-YUL for 2020.

I'll move my 2019 predictions over to this new forum.

JetBlue (BOS and maybe FLL)
Spirit to FLL and TPA. RSW, DFW, IAH could be added afterward.
Allegiant to SJU and/or EWR and possibly the temporary suspended AZA flight could come back late 2019.
Alaska to PDX (seasonal) and maybe SAN (This could also be a 2020 announcement/start up depending on how slow AS is)
Frontier adds 1-2 routes and then drops them 6 months after they start
DL or AM to MEX (Could be a 2019 announcement, 2020 start up)
AC (Maybe YUL)
Southwest (Maybe BNA. I don't see anything else other than that. They're in stagnation mode)

Less Likely but possible

LCC to Europe: Icelandair to KEF or Condor to FRA.

I also will not entertain the Asia flight idea until MEX is announced first. I am convinced the state is 100 percent focused on that first and then Asia thereafter.

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

2018 Year in Review

Dropped airlines/routes:
Alaska IND-SFO dropped September 30th, 2018
Onejet IND-PIT dropped August 28th, 2018
Frontier IND-TPA dropped
-Sources for future referral
- https://www.ibj.com/articles/69969-alas ... co-flights
- https://www.post-gazette.com/business/d ... 1810030188

New Routes
Allegiant IND-CHS started April 6th A320
Allegiant IND-SRQ started April 11th A320
Delta IND-CDG started May 24th B767-300ER
Delta IND-SEA started June 18th A319
Frontier IND-PHL resumed April 9th A320
Frontier IND-AUS started April 10th A320
Frontier IND-SAN started August 13th A321
Southwest IND-CUN started March 10th B737
Southwest IND-AUS started April 8th B737
Southwest IND-OAK started July 15th B738
-Sources for Future referral
- https://www.ibj.com/articles/66100-sout ... nd-flights
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... stinations
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... -to-europe
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... to-seattle
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... seven-days
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... ut-of-indy
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... -san-diego


Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
American IND-LAX 2x daily year-round
Delta IND-JFK increased to up to 3x daily
Delta IND-ATL increased to 10x daily
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall
-Sources for future referral (harder to source changes like these):
- https://news.delta.com/new-nonstop-delt ... fk-october


Misc. Airport News:
- Allegiant IND base opened February 7th as a two aircraft base, and was later given an additional aircraft. The base also went from all A319s to A320s in May
- Infosys (15th largest company in India) announced they were adding 3,000 jobs on the former terminal site for their U.S. Technology and Innovation Hub/Employee Education Center
- FedEx announced it is investing $1.5 billion to significantly expand the FedEx Express Indianapolis hub over the next seven years
- Republic Airways announced its new Training Academy at IND, and in addition the company also plans to create more than 600 new, full-time jobs at IND by 2028. As a part of the project Republic Airways will construct a new, state-of-the-art commercial aviation pilot training campus at the Indianapolis International Airport (IND). The training center, known as the Leadership In Flight Training (LIFT) Academy, will be one of the largest aviation training schools in the U.S. with the potential to train 300-400 students each year
- Indiana Governor Gov. Eric Holcomb announced a $1 billion Next Level Connections initiative, which included $20 million in state incentives to lure new international flights. A task force led by the airport has identified Mexico City as a target for nonstop service, as well as yet-to-be-determined cities in Asia and Europe
- 10 year anniversary of airport being opened
Sources for future referral
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... ness-today
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... dianapolis
- http://www.clipular.com/c/4770565853020 ... OVyu5etEs8
- https://about.van.fedex.com/newsroom/fe ... -jobs-act/
- https://www.ibj.com/articles/70951-fede ... t-finances
- https://calendar.in.gov/site/iedc/event ... n-indiana/
- https://www.ibj.com/articles/70657-20m- ... al-flights
- https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... w-terminal

Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-LGA loses a frequency
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)
- Delta all mainline IND-MSP for the summer
- Delta mainline upguages on IND-LAX/DTW/SLC
- Delta IND-BOS goes 4x daily starting in June
- Southwest IND-LAX loses service for Jan/Feb
- Southwest IND-EWR service is dropped on Jan 6
- Southwest IND-BOS goes Sat only starting June
- Southwest IND-MDW loses a frequency starting June
- Spirit Airlines announced service on December 11th, with service to LAS (Mar 14), MCO (Mar 14), and MYR (May 2)
- Sources for future referral
- http://ir.spirit.com/file/Index?KeyFile=396058316
- https://www.ibj.com/articles/69978-sout ... rea-boston
- https://news.delta.com/delta-adds-more- ... hington-dc

2017 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1357387

My 2019 predictions

Jetblue
More Spirit flights
Another destination or two from G4, plus the return of IND-AZA
More frequencies and upguages from DL
Either YUL or MEX
AA running 3x-4x mainline on IND-ORD for the summer
1 or 2 new routes from F9
Southwest either trims or drops MCI/MDW/ATL

My less likely, but still possible predictions:
AA drops IND-JFK
AS/DL increase summer capacity to SEA
A220 flights are announced
WN adds a route(BNA or STL)



Btw, be on the lookout for announcements in the next few weeks, not only did the Airport Director say there would be announcements, but the airport has announced at least 1-2 routes every January since 2013 or 2014

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw, be on the lookout for announcements in the next few weeks, not only did the Airport Director say there would be announcements, but the airport has announced at least 1-2 routes every January since 2013 or 2014

Now that you bring it up I have noticed that. Only announcement I could think off is JetBlue or MEX. I feel like MEX would be a 2020 start up tho but I could be wrong.

So, when will the 2018 total passenger numbers get released?

zackary747 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw, be on the lookout for announcements in the next few weeks, not only did the Airport Director say there would be announcements, but the airport has announced at least 1-2 routes every January since 2013 or 2014

Now that you bring it up I have noticed that. Only announcement I could think off is JetBlue or MEX. I feel like MEX would be a 2020 start up tho but I could be wrong.

So, when will the 2018 total passenger numbers get released?

F9 is about due to announce some new routes also.

zackary747 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw, be on the lookout for announcements in the next few weeks, not only did the Airport Director say there would be announcements, but the airport has announced at least 1-2 routes every January since 2013 or 2014

Now that you bring it up I have noticed that. Only announcement I could think off is JetBlue or MEX. I feel like MEX would be a 2020 start up tho but I could be wrong.

So, when will the 2018 total passenger numbers get released?

I'd put money on either G4, F9, or B6 announcing something, I have no idea what either G4 or F9 would announce though considering they are extremely unpredictable

Probably not MEX this early, but you never know. Considering the Governor put int'l flights on his agenda for 2019, plus made it a focal point of that next level initiative, the airport/city/state officials are going to do everything to get at least 1 int'l flight announced.

2018 total numbers should be released in the next 3 weeks (more likely 2-3 weeks), plus July int'l/October domestic LFs will be next week

October Numbers are out
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf

5.7% Growth for Oct '17/Oct '18
7.6% YTD growth

October Market share
WN-31.6%
DL- 24.4%
AA-22.5%
UA-11.3%
G4- 5.5%
F9-2.7%
AS-1.2%
AC-0.7%

Growth/Loss for October
AS-(-31.8%) Accounts for loss of SFO
AC-(-6.8%)
G4-(+36.8%) Another solid month
AA-(+3.9%)
DL-(+11.3%) Nearly double the passenger growth of G4
F9-(+20.2%)
WN-(+4.7%) Very surprised they are growing, must be higher LFs

Cargo was up 8% in October, in part to due to a large increase in cargo from FX, and major increases from DL and WN cargo

Here are some Q2 2018 numbers for IND departing passengers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TiSgmkHIQ0O3tK2pD4Uqwtm8o9hOVkTHVc2VxF9xZI4/edit?usp=sharing

2019 Predictions:
AA - Like everyone else - about nothing - perhaps dropping LGA or JFK or going all B738 on DFW. A third daily mainline to CLT? Again, likely nothing.
DL - BOS's now at 4x daily so I think that puts off getting mainline on it for a while. A hope would be that they change the SEA flight times so they don't have such overkill overlap with AS. It might have to wait until SLC reconstruction ends, but perhaps a second daily on an E175 to there. No new-routes I think unless AUS goes big, but that's probably for after they finish the BOS front.
UA - Probably nothing, but I dream of 3x daily mainline to ORD, 4x to DEN (2x 319, 2x E75), and mainline to IAH/IAD/EWR while reducing CR2/ERJs - DEN flight times change a bit in February
WN - Replacing ATL with at least 2x daily to BNA, little-else
G4 - 2 new destinations, from ORF/RDU/EWR/BWI/LAX or BXI - maybe more frequencies to SRQ/VPS
F9 - One or two of SAT/JAX/PHX/PBI/MIA for a few-months only
NK - FLL/DFW/BWI Net addition of one to two flights
AS - Status quo
AC - Status quo
B6 - 50% chance they come in with BOS-IND, probably nothing
Anyone else - Likely not

Happy New Year

I.V.

Midwestindy wrote:

Funny it was listed under 2019 when I was just looking at it.
9,400,000 for 2018?
2019 has a slight chance at 10,000,000 if we continue at this trend.

SumChristianus wrote:

Here are some Q2 2018 numbers for IND departing passengers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TiSgmkHIQ0O3tK2pD4Uqwtm8o9hOVkTHVc2VxF9xZI4/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for getting this in spreadsheet form, BOS, NYC, ORD, PHL, LAS, and SEA are going to be routes to watch moving forward as there have been (or will be) some sizable changes in those markets. AA PHL fares are going to get extremely high with F9 gone, and WN exiting BOS and NYC should noticeably impact fares to both areas.

SumChristianus wrote:

2019 Predictions:
UA - Probably nothing, but I dream of 3x daily mainline to ORD, 4x to DEN (2x 319, 2x E75), and mainline to IAH/IAD/EWR while reducing CR2/ERJs - DEN flight times change a bit in February

AA is stealing UA's lunch money on IND-ORD with stronger O&D and yield. With IND-ORD going 3x mainline starting in February, and 3x 738 by April, I'm not expecting too much mainline from UA on IND-ORD moving forward.

I have to think IND-DEN has less mainline because of IND-SFO, the LFs are there and yields are good, so more UA service on IND-DEN is quite reasonable IMO.

SumChristianus wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Funny it was listed under 2019 when I was just looking at it.
9,400,000 for 2018?
2019 has a slight chance at 10,000,000 if we continue at this trend.

I'd say 10 million will be tight, but I think it all depends on how much growth NK, G4, and F9 do, if DL continues to grow rapidly, and if B6 enters the market

Midwestindy wrote:

AA is stealing UA's lunch money

I laughed out loud reading that. I may have to steal that!

Yesterday there was a flight between IND and CLE (WN8501)... I assume it was an aircraft repositioning. Is there any way to find out if it was a revenue flight?

plinth857 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

AA is stealing UA's lunch money

I laughed out loud reading that. I may have to steal that!

plinth857 wrote:

Yesterday there was a flight between IND and CLE (WN8501)... I assume it was an aircraft repositioning. Is there any way to find out if it was a revenue flight?

Was not a revenue flight, someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe it was likely one of WN's birds coming back into service from maintenance in IND

Are we still banking on an imminent announcement of Asia service? I know a few people here were insistent one was supposed to come before the end of 2018 based on some chamber of commerce remarks.

2019 prediction - this thread hits 54 pages.

flyguy89 wrote:

Are we still banking on an imminent announcement of Asia service? I know a few people here were insistent one was supposed to come before the end of 2018 based on some chamber of commerce remarks.

tbh I forgot about that, but it looks like the Secretary of Commerce lost a little bit of credibility with that statement. Incentive money wasn't even acquired until the end of the year, so that was very very ambitious

https://www.ibj.com/articles/70657-20m- ... al-flights

It looks like according to this article, it will be MEX then any other destinations will come later.

Midwestindy wrote:

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall


Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

yonikasz wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall


Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

UA retired their entire B733 and B735 fleet in 2008/2009 completely without a direct replacement. Then ditched the entire L-CO B735 fleet shortly after the merger, then finally the entire L-UA domestic B752 fleet. While the B752s did get replaced by B739s, none of the classic 737s were really replaced at all, so all that vacant flying was filled in by RJs. You could also argue that CO retiring their own B733s before the merger also didn’t help.

Things are finally improving under new management with used Airbus aircraft arriving and more B39Ms on the way, plus a few new B738s and B739s being delivered not too long ago. And now a massive E175 fleet spread out across the network. The only issues are that it takes time to add used aircraft and UA is currently at the scope limit for 76-seat RJs.

Midwestindy wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Are we still banking on an imminent announcement of Asia service? I know a few people here were insistent one was supposed to come before the end of 2018 based on some chamber of commerce remarks.

tbh I forgot about that, but it looks like the Secretary of Commerce lost a little bit of credibility with that statement. Incentive money wasn't even acquired until the end of the year, so that was very very ambitious

https://www.ibj.com/articles/70657-20m- ... al-flights

It looks like according to this article, it will be MEX then any other destinations will come later.

FYI here is what his office said when I asked about his comments on Asia. "As Secretary Schellinger mentioned, one of these target destinations is Asia. We have had productive conversations with airlines providing service between Asia and the United States and remain optimistic about landing Indiana's first trans-pacific route sometime in the near future."

Runway28L wrote:

yonikasz wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall


Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

UA retired their entire B733 and B735 fleet in 2008/2009 completely without a direct replacement. Then ditched the entire L-CO B735 fleet shortly after the merger, then finally the entire L-UA domestic B752 fleet. While the B752s did get replaced by B739s, none of the classic 737s were really replaced at all, so all that vacant flying was filled in by RJs. You could also argue that CO retiring their own B733s before the merger also didn’t help.

Things are finally improving under new management with used Airbus aircraft arriving and more B39Ms on the way, plus a few new B738s and B739s being delivered not too long ago. And now a massive E175 fleet spread out across the network. The only issues are that it takes time to add used aircraft and UA is currently at the scope limit for 76-seat RJs.

Why didn't UA pickup those used MD-90's that DL was grabbing. Also why didn't they order the C-Series/A220 it seems to fill a gap they need to fill desperately.

yonikasz wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall


Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

The underlying problem is that UA has a lot of 50 seat aircraft, and they have to fly somewhere.

UA's network strategy makes hardly any sense when looking at IND, granted UA has had there hands tied behind their backs with the scope clause they currently have, but the level of 50 seater flying at an airport like IND is pretty bad

For April
IND-IAH-2xCR2/1xE145
IND-EWR-3xE145
IND-IAD-2xCR2/E145
IND-ORD-6xCR2

IND-ORD goes 10x daily in April, which is the same frequency as ORD-DEN/EWR/IAH/LAX, but yet they couldn't replace 3-4 of those frequencies with 1-2 mainline flights like every other mid-sized city?

The only other UA routes from ORD with that kind of frequency in April are LGA, SFO, and DCA, so I have no idea why they operate IND-ORD that way.

You mentioned it was bad for the consumer, but I don't think UA is too worried about their IND POS. On the contrary, it appears DL and AA have been more focussed on building up their brand outside of their hubs.

yonikasz wrote:

Runway28L wrote:

yonikasz wrote:

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

UA retired their entire B733 and B735 fleet in 2008/2009 completely without a direct replacement. Then ditched the entire L-CO B735 fleet shortly after the merger, then finally the entire L-UA domestic B752 fleet. While the B752s did get replaced by B739s, none of the classic 737s were really replaced at all, so all that vacant flying was filled in by RJs. You could also argue that CO retiring their own B733s before the merger also didn’t help.

Things are finally improving under new management with used Airbus aircraft arriving and more B39Ms on the way, plus a few new B738s and B739s being delivered not too long ago. And now a massive E175 fleet spread out across the network. The only issues are that it takes time to add used aircraft and UA is currently at the scope limit for 76-seat RJs.

Why didn't UA pickup those used MD-90's that DL was grabbing. Also why didn't they order the C-Series/A220 it seems to fill a gap they need to fill desperately.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ea-442412/
"United considered the CSeries as part of a small narrowbody aircraft campaign in late 2015. However, it opted for 65 Boeing 737-700s over the Canadian aircraft in early 2016"

"The reason we didn't pick the CSeries when we were looking at small narrowbodies was the economics on the aircraft we picked were better economics,"

"United converted the 737-700 order to four -800s and 61 Max aircraft in November 2016, as its then-new leadership team opted to focus instead on larger gauge aircraft rather than the 100-seat segment."

"[We've] modified that order for a bigger aircraft because, with where we think the network's headed, we'd rather have some larger narrowbodies,"

Midwestindy wrote:

yonikasz wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Did this last year, and I thought it would be a good way document what happened in 2018 for future a.net users

Noteworthy Mainline/Frequency Changes
American IND-ORD year-round mainline
Delta IND-SLC went all mainline on March 1st
United IND-IAD/EWR saw mainline for summer and fall


Changes made in 2018 for 2019
- American IND-ORD more mainline (2-3x daily)

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

The underlying problem is that UA has a lot of 50 seat aircraft, and they have to fly somewhere.

UA's network strategy makes hardly any sense when looking at IND, granted UA has had there hands tied behind their backs with the scope clause they currently have, but the level of 50 seater flying at an airport like IND is pretty bad

For April
IND-IAH-2xCR2/1xE145
IND-EWR-3xE145
IND-IAD-2xCR2/E145
IND-ORD-6xCR2

IND-ORD goes 10x daily in April, which is the same frequency as ORD-DEN/EWR/IAH/LAX, but yet they couldn't replace 3-4 of those frequencies with 1-2 mainline flights like every other mid-sized city?

The only other UA routes from ORD with that kind of frequency in April are LGA, SFO, and DCA, so I have no idea why they operate IND-ORD that way.

You mentioned it was bad for the consumer, but I don't think UA is too worried about their IND POS. On the contrary, it appears DL and AA have been more focussed on building up their brand outside of their hubs.

STL feels your pain (April)
ord 9x total 5x seaters 4x 700
den 5x all 50 seaters
ewr 6x all 50 seaters
iad 3x all 50 seaters
iah 5x total 3x 50 seaters 1 mainline 1 E175
sfo 2x E175

So 22 of 30 flights a day are 50 seaters. Drives me nuts. I want to fly UA more but can't with over 2/3rds 50 seaters.

Jshank83 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

yonikasz wrote:

Why does UA struggle so much with mainline. They have these roaches CRJ-200's flying all over the place. Delta can fly mainline to a relatively small demand market (SLC). I know that UA and AA both fly to ORD but why does UA struggle with barley any mainline frequencies, many days there is not a single mainline. Not only is this bad for the customer, but doesn't it affect their unit cost too.

The underlying problem is that UA has a lot of 50 seat aircraft, and they have to fly somewhere.

UA's network strategy makes hardly any sense when looking at IND, granted UA has had there hands tied behind their backs with the scope clause they currently have, but the level of 50 seater flying at an airport like IND is pretty bad

For April
IND-IAH-2xCR2/1xE145
IND-EWR-3xE145
IND-IAD-2xCR2/E145
IND-ORD-6xCR2

IND-ORD goes 10x daily in April, which is the same frequency as ORD-DEN/EWR/IAH/LAX, but yet they couldn't replace 3-4 of those frequencies with 1-2 mainline flights like every other mid-sized city?

The only other UA routes from ORD with that kind of frequency in April are LGA, SFO, and DCA, so I have no idea why they operate IND-ORD that way.

You mentioned it was bad for the consumer, but I don't think UA is too worried about their IND POS. On the contrary, it appears DL and AA have been more focussed on building up their brand outside of their hubs.

STL feels your pain (April)
ord 9x total 5x seaters 4x 700
den 5x all 50 seaters
ewr 6x all 50 seaters
iad 3x all 50 seaters
iah 5x total 3x 50 seaters 1 mainline 1 E175
sfo 2x E175

So 22 of 30 flights a day are 50 seaters. Drives me nuts. I want to fly UA more but can't with over 2/3rds 50 seaters.

Lol, I guess it could be worse for IND

---------------------------

Also for those interested the state just released its annual tourism report:
https://www.visitindianatourism.com/sit ... ressed.pdf

"Hoosier state hosted an estimated 415,000 international trips in 2017, over 40% of which were from overseas origin countries."

"Business travel saw strong growth in 2017, gaining nearly 8% vs. year-earlier levels."

Air Transportation expenditures also increased 2.6%

Not directly related to IND, but Indiana tourism trends are correlated with IND trends.

On the UA piece, here's another thing that hurts IMO. Of the non-50 seaters they fly in/out of IND, most have FC cabins no larger than 6 seats. If you're a higher-end elite hoping to score an upgrade, your chance on UA are dismal compared to DL just based on supply, even with all the effort DL has put toward filling their cabins with paying customers.

indygs wrote:

On the UA piece, here's another thing that hurts IMO. Of the non-50 seaters they fly in/out of IND, most have FC cabins no larger than 6 seats. If you're a higher-end elite hoping to score an upgrade, your chance on UA are dismal compared to DL just based on supply, even with all the effort DL has put toward filling their cabins with paying customers.

Very true, although there are hardly any UA Mileage Plus members in IND. I haven't flown UA in almost a year, but I remember the last time I did they went through Groups 1 and 2 without anyone boarding.

I think the problem UA has is that they put so many Y+ seats on their aircraft for some reason. 42 Y+ seats is way too many for an A319, especially for airports without a large Mileageplus base.

DL's fleet tends to be the most F heavy, which is great as a DM, the 752/A321 IND-DTW flights are the best as they are rarely full

Midwestindy wrote:

Very true, although there are hardly any UA Mileage Plus members in IND. I haven't flown UA in almost a year, but I remember the last time I did they went through Groups 1 and 2 without anyone boarding.

I think the problem UA has is that they put so many Y+ seats on their aircraft for some reason. 42 Y+ seats is way too many for an A319, especially for airports without a large Mileageplus base.

DL's fleet tends to be the most F heavy, which is great as a DM, the 752/A321 IND-DTW flights are the best as they are rarely full

As a DM, upgrades to/from LGA, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, BOS and RDU are near guarantees. That said, I was upgraded on a couple of the eligible flights I took last year as a UA Silver (IND-IAD and EWR-IND) but missed out on the 20-seat 739 FC cabin doing a Sunday night IND-SFO run.

Flying IND-EWR on UA next week on an ERJ145 and not looking forward to it. Return JFK-IND on DL is of course on a CRJ900, although I saw this week they're even running 170/175s.

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Very true, although there are hardly any UA Mileage Plus members in IND. I haven't flown UA in almost a year, but I remember the last time I did they went through Groups 1 and 2 without anyone boarding.

I think the problem UA has is that they put so many Y+ seats on their aircraft for some reason. 42 Y+ seats is way too many for an A319, especially for airports without a large Mileageplus base.

DL's fleet tends to be the most F heavy, which is great as a DM, the 752/A321 IND-DTW flights are the best as they are rarely full

As a DM, upgrades to/from LGA, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, BOS and RDU are near guarantees. That said, I was upgraded on a couple of the eligible flights I took last year as a UA Silver (IND-IAD and EWR-IND) but missed out on the 20-seat 739 FC cabin doing a Sunday night IND-SFO run.

Flying IND-EWR on UA next week on an ERJ145 and not looking forward to it. Return JFK-IND on DL is of course on a CRJ900, although I saw this week they're even running 170/175s.

IND-ATL is the only one that isn't always a guarantee, but still is pretty safe. I don't get out west often, so I'm not sure about IND-SLC/LAX/SEA.

Very interesting that you are UA Silver though, what led you to go after that, as opposed to AA Gold.

Midwestindy wrote:

Very interesting that you are UA Silver though, what led you to go after that, as opposed to AA Gold.

AA Gold would be more optimal as I use their IND-DCA service several times a year. UA Silver happened more-or-less because of trips to GVA and UA (at the time) having the only one-stop single carrier connection via IAD. I've since moved those trips to DL via CDG.

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Very true, although there are hardly any UA Mileage Plus members in IND. I haven't flown UA in almost a year, but I remember the last time I did they went through Groups 1 and 2 without anyone boarding.

I think the problem UA has is that they put so many Y+ seats on their aircraft for some reason. 42 Y+ seats is way too many for an A319, especially for airports without a large Mileageplus base.

DL's fleet tends to be the most F heavy, which is great as a DM, the 752/A321 IND-DTW flights are the best as they are rarely full

As a DM, upgrades to/from LGA, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, BOS and RDU are near guarantees. That said, I was upgraded on a couple of the eligible flights I took last year as a UA Silver (IND-IAD and EWR-IND) but missed out on the 20-seat 739 FC cabin doing a Sunday night IND-SFO run.

Flying IND-EWR on UA next week on an ERJ145 and not looking forward to it. Return JFK-IND on DL is of course on a CRJ900, although I saw this week they're even running 170/175s.

Do any of you guys have an idea of how strong DL's ATL FF base is. I assume it's massive. Like for an ATL-MSP/JFK/SEA/LAX/ORD/DFW/DTW/DCA/LGA flight how likely are you able to be upgraded as as a Gold or even a Diamond. Do you have to be like Delta 360? Maybe I am overestimating the amount of FF's.

yonikasz wrote:

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Very true, although there are hardly any UA Mileage Plus members in IND. I haven't flown UA in almost a year, but I remember the last time I did they went through Groups 1 and 2 without anyone boarding.

I think the problem UA has is that they put so many Y+ seats on their aircraft for some reason. 42 Y+ seats is way too many for an A319, especially for airports without a large Mileageplus base.

DL's fleet tends to be the most F heavy, which is great as a DM, the 752/A321 IND-DTW flights are the best as they are rarely full

As a DM, upgrades to/from LGA, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, BOS and RDU are near guarantees. That said, I was upgraded on a couple of the eligible flights I took last year as a UA Silver (IND-IAD and EWR-IND) but missed out on the 20-seat 739 FC cabin doing a Sunday night IND-SFO run.

Flying IND-EWR on UA next week on an ERJ145 and not looking forward to it. Return JFK-IND on DL is of course on a CRJ900, although I saw this week they're even running 170/175s.

Do any of you guys have an idea of how strong DL's ATL FF base is. I assume it's massive. Like for an ATL-MSP/JFK/SEA/LAX/ORD/DFW/DTW/DCA/LGA flight how likely are you able to be upgraded as as a Gold or even a Diamond. Do you have to be like Delta 360? Maybe I am overestimating the amount of FF's.

I'd assume ATL is DL's largest FF base by a wide margin.

Any Hub-Hub route is going to be difficult to get an upgrade on, for example routes like ATL-MSP/DTW, plus most routes from any of the large hubs like ATL, DTW, MSP to large cities like SFO.

Then you have routes like ATL-DCA which is a huge route for govt employees/contractors, many of whom fly back and forth multiple times a month, so that route is obviously hard to get an upgrade on.

Anyway even as a Diamond, ATL to any of those airports is going to be difficult to be upgraded, and it's pretty common if you fly through ATL to see upgrade lists of 40-50-60-e.t.c. I'd say the best chance of upgrades through ATL is early Tuesday/Saturday flights or late night Tuesday/Saturday flights

Midwestindy wrote:

yonikasz wrote:

indygs wrote:

As a DM, upgrades to/from LGA, JFK, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, BOS and RDU are near guarantees. That said, I was upgraded on a couple of the eligible flights I took last year as a UA Silver (IND-IAD and EWR-IND) but missed out on the 20-seat 739 FC cabin doing a Sunday night IND-SFO run.

Flying IND-EWR on UA next week on an ERJ145 and not looking forward to it. Return JFK-IND on DL is of course on a CRJ900, although I saw this week they're even running 170/175s.

Do any of you guys have an idea of how strong DL's ATL FF base is. I assume it's massive. Like for an ATL-MSP/JFK/SEA/LAX/ORD/DFW/DTW/DCA/LGA flight how likely are you able to be upgraded as as a Gold or even a Diamond. Do you have to be like Delta 360? Maybe I am overestimating the amount of FF's.

I'd assume ATL is DL's largest FF base by a wide margin.

I know this is a IND thread, but it's ATL does so many wonders for DL in ways that no other airlines have.

Frequent fliers
Connectivity
Dominating Florida
Dominating the South
Maintenance
The concourses being parallel to each other
If you look at any midsize airport in the mideast/midwest most likely the most seats are going to ATL on DL

Looked at the March seat data

G4: March total seat increase of 15.8% (Additional frequencies, upguaging)
DL: March total seat increase of 10.02% (Upguaging DTW, additional service to JFK, SEA, CDG, BOS, and ATL)

WN EWR-IND ended yesterday, ironically the last flight was Sold Out

https://www.routesonline.com/events/194 ... tendeeList

Visit Indy will be at Routes Americas in February, which is odd since the airport won't be attending.

I know last year VisitIndy went along with the airport, so it is odd that it isn't happening this year (especially since mostly airports attend these events).

Hopefully there will be discussions about IND-MEX, B6, G4, DL, e.t.c

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.routesonline.com/events/194/routes-americas-2019/attending-delegates/#attendeeList

Visit Indy will be at Routes Americas in February, which is odd since the airport won't be attending.

I know last year VisitIndy went along with the airport, so it is odd that it isn't happening this year (especially since mostly airports attend these events).

Hopefully there will be discussions about IND-MEX, B6, G4, DL, e.t.c

Would love to see WestJet included!!!

ilive4planes wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.routesonline.com/events/194/routes-americas-2019/attending-delegates/#attendeeList

Visit Indy will be at Routes Americas in February, which is odd since the airport won't be attending.

I know last year VisitIndy went along with the airport, so it is odd that it isn't happening this year (especially since mostly airports attend these events).

Hopefully there will be discussions about IND-MEX, B6, G4, DL, e.t.c

Would love to see WestJet included!!!

I agree! Would love to see them give AC a little competition. IND would be a great Q400 destination for them. They do YYZ-BNA, after all.

Probably a long shot, but I would LOVE to see Porter show up in IND.

On the Canada front, IND-YUL on AC has been rumored by the station and crews forever. Wish it would come to fruition.

*F9 IND-SAN MAR 0.3>0[0] APR 0.3>0[0]

Appears F9 is giving SAN the axe. It is annoying that WN seems to have no desire to expand IND, otherwise this would be the perfect opportunity for them to expand the season of the route...

No worry, JetBlue will come to the rescue. Right?

stlgph wrote:

No worry, JetBlue will come to the rescue. Right?

2019 has started off quiet, but I don't think it will stay that way

Waiting for an update on the IND-CDG flight, I think the IBJ was supposed to run an article about it sometime this month.

So far LFs haven't been too bad, however the real test will be later this month and into February. https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

The contract stated that service can be dropped next year from January-March if they don't meet the agreed upon revenue, so that will be something to watch. March LFs should be fine though

https://www.ind.com/flights

Spirit is listed here and it looks like they will be parking at the A concourse.

I am also hearing rumors that Contour Airlines could set up shop here soon.

Midwestindy wrote:

Waiting for an update on the IND-CDG flight, I think the IBJ was supposed to run an article about it sometime this month.

So far LFs haven't been too bad, however the real test will be later this month and into February. https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

The contract stated that service can be dropped next year from January-March if they don't meet the agreed upon revenue, so that will be something to watch. March LFs should be fine though

Yeah. Again, single data points but right now you can book into March a roundtrip on the IND-CDG flight for 32k SkyMiles which is darn cheap. And I'm flying CDG-IND in Delta One next week and the it appears there are 20 open seats in the cabin with 145 seats left to be assigned in coach. While I know some of these will be basic economy tickets, those are still pretty high numbers a week out.

Interesting. Sounds like if I take a trip to Paris this time of the year, booking basic economy isn't a bad way to go. Will probably end up with a window or aisle, if not a whole row.

Hmmm.....;0

zackary747 wrote:

https://www.ind.com/flights

Spirit is listed here and it looks like they will be parking at the A concourse.

I am also hearing rumors that Contour Airlines could set up shop here soon.

Interesting, so probably A20. They will likely try to put Contour at B4, which might limit G4 expansion. After that, there aren't any other gates right? Unless DL gives up some of their excess....

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Waiting for an update on the IND-CDG flight, I think the IBJ was supposed to run an article about it sometime this month.

So far LFs haven't been too bad, however the real test will be later this month and into February. https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

The contract stated that service can be dropped next year from January-March if they don't meet the agreed upon revenue, so that will be something to watch. March LFs should be fine though

Yeah. Again, single data points but right now you can book into March a roundtrip on the IND-CDG flight for 32k SkyMiles which is darn cheap. And I'm flying CDG-IND in Delta One next week and the it appears there are 20 open seats in the cabin with 145 seats left to be assigned in coach. While I know some of these will be basic economy tickets, those are still pretty high numbers a week out.

32K isn't that surprising, CVG-CDG is 34k SkyMiles. February will be rough though....

Too bad I won't be able to get any LFs until after the government shutdown

IND didn't get any play out of the recent Allegiant adds, but I see they are going to offer Cleveland/Cincinnati into Norfolk. If such adds work, I could see an add in the future from IND, as it fits the niche.

stlgph wrote:

IND didn't get any play out of the recent Allegiant adds, but I see they are going to offer Cleveland/Cincinnati into Norfolk. If such adds work, I could see an add in the future from IND, as it fits the niche.

Yes that is quite interesting, I think IND-ORF would be an interesting route to try out, however I just imagine most of the beach travel goes down to Florida.

Odd that G4/F9 hasn't announced anything in a while though, and no service from B6/SY either.

I see such a market, with 2-3x weekly service between a market such as IND/ORF is becoming more and more of their sweet spot.

You have VFR especially with those connected in the military and not to mention both would draw from a large regional area, you have Virginia Beach, and the attractions of Busch Gardens, Colonial Williamsburg, Hampton Roads, and all kinds of a plethora of things you could sell the family on for a package deal during the summer. Seems like a natural sell and I'm surprised they haven't gone in a lot earlier on this.

Good luck to Cleveland and Cincinnati.

Midwestindy wrote:

zackary747 wrote:

https://www.ind.com/flights

Spirit is listed here and it looks like they will be parking at the A concourse.

I am also hearing rumors that Contour Airlines could set up shop here soon.

Interesting, so probably A20. They will likely try to put Contour at B4, which might limit G4 expansion. After that, there aren't any other gates right? Unless DL gives up some of their excess....

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Waiting for an update on the IND-CDG flight, I think the IBJ was supposed to run an article about it sometime this month.

So far LFs haven't been too bad, however the real test will be later this month and into February. https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

The contract stated that service can be dropped next year from January-March if they don't meet the agreed upon revenue, so that will be something to watch. March LFs should be fine though

Yeah. Again, single data points but right now you can book into March a roundtrip on the IND-CDG flight for 32k SkyMiles which is darn cheap. And I'm flying CDG-IND in Delta One next week and the it appears there are 20 open seats in the cabin with 145 seats left to be assigned in coach. While I know some of these will be basic economy tickets, those are still pretty high numbers a week out.

32K isn't that surprising, CVG-CDG is 34k SkyMiles. February will be rough though....

Too bad I won't be able to get any LFs until after the government shutdown

As to gates, A22 is also free at the moment, although UA uses it for overflow from time to time. Maybe make AA put the jet bridge back on B12 and use it or lose it?

A4 is another option, as its use is virtually non-existant outside charters and the rare occasion that CDG and CUN or some charter wind up on the gate at the same time. Could definitely squeeze some utilization out of it.

The airport is going to have to do something about gate usage. I just can't think of what. There are so many gates that are effectively used only for RONs and irops. Given the way IND is set up, I still don't understand why they didn't do CUTE with preferential usage. But that's a whole different topic and I believe that ship has long sailed.