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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:17 pm
by Midwestindy
fedex1 wrote:
Do we see IND - CDG staying with the frequency it has this fall and winter next year? Or will to do what they did in PIT and just do summer flying!?


Based on the contract the only months that can change are JAN-MAR, otherwise DL can't use a smaller aircraft or drop to a lower frequency. They are allowed to increase frequency/gauge as necessary.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:28 pm
by fedex1
So then is it going daily in April? I can not remember what you folks said. In the contract ( if I remember correctly, it doesn’t go daily until end of May?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:35 pm
by zackary747
fedex1 wrote:
So then is it going daily in April? I can not remember what you folks said. In the contract ( if I remember correctly, it doesn’t go daily until end of May?



It was originally listed as daily but then it got changed (Delta does that often). It shows as daily from the end of May.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:15 pm
by Midwestindy
For your viewing pleasure, here are the renderings of all the 1st round of new retail options. The next round will be available around February 13-15th

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... EBSITE.pdf
https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... experience

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:08 pm
by Midwestindy
Southwest schedule extension is in a couple weeks, don't be surprised if there are more cutbacks.

August WN LFs
IND-ATL-80%
IND-BOS-71%
IND-BWI-86%
IND-DAL-79%
IND-DEN-86%
IND-EWR-64%
IND-FLL-69%
IND-HOU-79%
IND-LAS-84%
IND-LAX-89%
IND-MCI-70%
IND-MCO-68%
IND-MDW-68%
IND-MSY-82%
IND-OAK-81%
IND-PHX-73%
IND-RSW-73%
IND-SAN-96%
IND-TPA-81%

I think IND-BOS will stay Sat only, IND-SAN will stay for a week in August, and there will be drawback of frequency/738s to Florida/Texas/PHX. However, if that happens, DL will likely overtake WN in terms of passengers.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:17 pm
by Jshank83
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest schedule extension is in a couple weeks, don't be surprised if there are more cutbacks.

August WN LFs
IND-ATL-80%
IND-BOS-71%
IND-BWI-86%
IND-DAL-79%
IND-DEN-86%
IND-EWR-64%
IND-FLL-69%
IND-HOU-79%
IND-LAS-84%
IND-LAX-89%
IND-MCI-70%
IND-MCO-68%
IND-MDW-68%
IND-MSY-82%
IND-OAK-81%
IND-PHX-73%
IND-RSW-73%
IND-SAN-96%
IND-TPA-81%

I think IND-BOS will stay Sat only, IND-SAN will stay for a week in August, and there will be drawback of frequency/738s to Florida/Texas/PHX. However, if that happens, DL will likely overtake WN in terms of passengers.


What are your thoughts on IND-MCI? Think it will stick around or not? I know their LFs haven't been great but I didn't know if there was an underlying reason to keep it. A few west connects I am sure.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:22 pm
by Midwestindy
Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest schedule extension is in a couple weeks, don't be surprised if there are more cutbacks.

August WN LFs
IND-ATL-80%
IND-BOS-71%
IND-BWI-86%
IND-DAL-79%
IND-DEN-86%
IND-EWR-64%
IND-FLL-69%
IND-HOU-79%
IND-LAS-84%
IND-LAX-89%
IND-MCI-70%
IND-MCO-68%
IND-MDW-68%
IND-MSY-82%
IND-OAK-81%
IND-PHX-73%
IND-RSW-73%
IND-SAN-96%
IND-TPA-81%

I think IND-BOS will stay Sat only, IND-SAN will stay for a week in August, and there will be drawback of frequency/738s to Florida/Texas/PHX. However, if that happens, DL will likely overtake WN in terms of passengers.


What are your thoughts on IND-MCI? Think it will stick around or not? I know their LFs haven't been great but I didn't know if there was an underlying reason to keep it. A few west connects I am sure.


Looking at Q2 2018 data, -avg fare (avg fare/distance)
PHX-228 (0.1533)
SAN-228 (0.1279)
LAX-226 (0.1247)
OAK-218 (0.1125)
LAS-211 (0.1325)
HOU-204 (0.2370)
DAL-199 (0.264)
DEN-198(0.2030)
RSW-192 (0.2033)
Sun only AUS-176 (0.1922)
TPA-173 (0.2067)
MCI-172 (0.3811)
BWI-171 (0.3314)
MCO-166 (0.2006)
Sat only BOS-161 (0.1969)
FLL-160 (0.1597)
ATL-154(0.3575)
Sun only MSY-144 (0.2044)
Cut EWR-137(0.2128)
MDW-116 (0.7191)

It looks like MCI, MDW, ATL are in the most danger from IND, these routes carry a lot of connecting traffic. For example, IND-ATL-XXX had 172 PDEW connecting through ATL last summer, and IND-MDW-XXX was 109 PDEW.

The IND-West coast/Florida routes do much better than the IND-MDW/ATL/MCI flights so I think WN knows they are cannibalizing some of their more lucrative flying with some of these underperforming routes. I think this was also seen with drawing back IND-BOS/EWR

Cutting IND-MCI doesn't lose any important connections that can't be made from DAL, HOU, DEN, OAK, e.t.c, so it would mean the IND-MCI is valuable enough to keep around. Perhaps cutting IND-MCI back to 1x daily would be more lucrative, in addition to making IND-ATL 2x daily.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:33 pm
by Jshank83
Midwestindy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest schedule extension is in a couple weeks, don't be surprised if there are more cutbacks.

August WN LFs
IND-ATL-80%
IND-BOS-71%
IND-BWI-86%
IND-DAL-79%
IND-DEN-86%
IND-EWR-64%
IND-FLL-69%
IND-HOU-79%
IND-LAS-84%
IND-LAX-89%
IND-MCI-70%
IND-MCO-68%
IND-MDW-68%
IND-MSY-82%
IND-OAK-81%
IND-PHX-73%
IND-RSW-73%
IND-SAN-96%
IND-TPA-81%

I think IND-BOS will stay Sat only, IND-SAN will stay for a week in August, and there will be drawback of frequency/738s to Florida/Texas/PHX. However, if that happens, DL will likely overtake WN in terms of passengers.


What are your thoughts on IND-MCI? Think it will stick around or not? I know their LFs haven't been great but I didn't know if there was an underlying reason to keep it. A few west connects I am sure.


Looking at Q2 2018 data, -avg fare (avg fare/distance)
PHX-228 (0.1533)
SAN-228 (0.1279)
LAX-226 (0.1247)
OAK-218 (0.1125)
LAS-211 (0.1325)
HOU-204 (0.2370)
DAL-199 (0.264)
DEN-198(0.2030)
RSW-192 (0.2033)
Sun only AUS-176 (0.1922)
TPA-173 (0.2067)
MCI-172 (0.3811)
BWI-171 (0.3314)
MCO-166 (0.2006)
Sat only BOS-161 (0.1969)
FLL-160 (0.1597)
ATL-154(0.3575)
Sun only MSY-144 (0.2044)
Cut EWR-137(0.2128)
MDW-116 (0.7191)

It looks like MCI, MDW, ATL are in the most danger from IND, these routes carry a lot of connecting traffic. For example, IND-ATL-XXX had 172 PDEW connecting through ATL last summer, and IND-MDW-XXX was 109 PDEW.

The IND-West coast/Florida routes do much better than the IND-MDW/ATL/MCI flights so I think WN knows they are cannibalizing some of their more lucrative flying with some of these underperforming routes. I think this was also seen with drawing back IND-BOS/EWR

Cutting IND-MCI doesn't lose any important connections that can't be made from DAL, HOU, DEN, OAK, e.t.c, so it would mean the IND-MCI is valuable enough to keep around. Perhaps cutting IND-MCI back to 1x daily would be more lucrative, in addition to making IND-ATL 2x daily.


I figure cutting MDW pretty much won't happen with as big a station as it is for WN. ATL I would think stick around unless they move it to BNA. All good points made by you. thanks.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:50 pm
by stlgph
If load factor percentages for just one month were truly a concern we would have seen dozens and dozens of other route cuts between a number of cities and station cuts.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:19 pm
by Midwestindy
DL is upguaging IND-MCO to the A320 starting in May
DL IND-MSP is going up to 3x A319, 2x B717

For June here are the other DL upguages reported previously
IND-LAX A319-->B738 year-round
IND-SLC A319-->B738
IND-BOS 3x--->4x daily
IND-DTW 1 frequency A320--->A321
IND-RDU 1 frequency CRJ--->CR7

Very impressive stuff

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:00 pm
by stlgph
Would still be great to see SLC come in at 2 daily at some point.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:21 pm
by FLYKTPA
Is DL’s MCO flight daily? And how about DL trying a TPA on the weekend?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:26 pm
by stlgph
FLYKTPA wrote:
Is DL’s MCO flight daily? And how about DL trying a TPA on the weekend?


Yes it is.

DL doing TPA on a weekend or a couple of other Florida destinations has been brought up here a few times. Given the number of people going through Atlanta connecting to Florida, the market is clearly there and if Southwest can fill 6 737s to a few Florida cities in the spring break/easter months, you'd think DL would jump on that in some shape or form...but....it is what it is.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:00 pm
by floridaflyboy
stlgph wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Is DL’s MCO flight daily? And how about DL trying a TPA on the weekend?


Yes it is.

DL doing TPA on a weekend or a couple of other Florida destinations has been brought up here a few times. Given the number of people going through Atlanta connecting to Florida, the market is clearly there and if Southwest can fill 6 737s to a few Florida cities in the spring break/easter months, you'd think DL would jump on that in some shape or form...but....it is what it is.


DL actually tried IND-TPA seasonally on Saturdays on an E70 6 or 7 years ago. It was the same year they tried the IND-NAS Saturday service. I was surprised it didn't come back the next season.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:55 pm
by Midwestindy
floridaflyboy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Is DL’s MCO flight daily? And how about DL trying a TPA on the weekend?


Yes it is.

DL doing TPA on a weekend or a couple of other Florida destinations has been brought up here a few times. Given the number of people going through Atlanta connecting to Florida, the market is clearly there and if Southwest can fill 6 737s to a few Florida cities in the spring break/easter months, you'd think DL would jump on that in some shape or form...but....it is what it is.


DL actually tried IND-TPA seasonally on Saturdays on an E70 6 or 7 years ago. It was the same year they tried the IND-NAS Saturday service. I was surprised it didn't come back the next season.


LFs were good, RDU-NAS was cancelled too

I think these recent additions show that there could be more in store for IND:

Lost in the shuffle today, was that IND-MSP is going year-round all mainline (5xB717 outside of summer).

Now there is a daily A320 to MCO, a B767 to CDG, a seasonal B717 to RSW, a seasonal B739 to CUN, plus the CR9 to MIA, and a plethora of mainline service. IND is becoming a sizable operation for DL.

Hopefully, IND-SLC 2x daily is in the works, plus upguages to SEA, and potentially more Florida service.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:58 pm
by ibthebigd
Any potential for IND-LAS on Delta?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:06 am
by stlgph
NW used to fly to LAS back "in the days" and I'm a bit surprised DL hasn't gone to LAS from IND given the increasing amount of convention traffic and meetings held there. Alas, it seems like one of those markets that makes sense to *US*...along with those proposed Florida routes but until someone from within the compound can speak up - i guess it is what it is.

That being said, I am surprised that DL hasn't done a 5am departure to ATL at least during the week, even if on a 70 seater. I know 5 am is painful but it's an early start to getting people on the road - a 5am departure seems to work for AA and UA.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:13 am
by Indy
I cannot wait for DL to bring the A220 to IND. I was looking at the seat map for it... very promising. The premium economy seats should be nice and roomy. 34 inches of leg room isn't extraordinary, but the 18.6 in wide seats are the best in the business for economy... as far as I know.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:14 am
by fedex1
How many daily departures does Delta have at IND...

If it wouldn’t be too much, how many are mainline v regional....

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:45 pm
by Midwestindy
fedex1 wrote:
How many daily departures does Delta have at IND...

If it wouldn’t be too much, how many are mainline v regional....


41 next summer

Mainline 21 flights
IND-ATL 10x MD88
IND-MSP 3x A319
IND-MSP 2x B717
IND-CDG 1x B767
IND-DTW 1x A321
IND-LAX 1x B738
IND-SLC 1x B738
IND-MCO 1x A320
IND-SEA 1x A319

Regional 20 flights
IND-NYC 8x (CR9/E70/E75)
IND-DTW 6x (CR9/E70)
IND-BOS 4x (E70)
IND-RDU 2x (CRJ/CR7)

ibthebigd wrote:
Any potential for IND-LAS on Delta?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

stlgph wrote:
NW used to fly to LAS back "in the days" and I'm a bit surprised DL hasn't gone to LAS from IND given the increasing amount of convention traffic and meetings held there. Alas, it seems like one of those markets that makes sense to *US*...along with those proposed Florida routes but until someone from within the compound can speak up - i guess it is what it is.

That being said, I am surprised that DL hasn't done a 5am departure to ATL at least during the week, even if on a 70 seater. I know 5 am is painful but it's an early start to getting people on the road - a 5am departure seems to work for AA and UA.


I don't see IND-LAS until they run it from RDU. Although, DL did hold on that route until 2010

They are planning to run a 5:45 am departure to ATL in March

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:11 pm
by fedex1
I was reading on the PIT 2019 Thread... how dirt cheap IND - CDG tickets are?

So my question : how is the flight performing, and how is it performing v CVG - CDG. . . RDU - CDG?!

I do understand this is winter. Slow season .

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:52 pm
by kindeham
fedex1 wrote:
I was reading on the PIT 2019 Thread... how dirt cheap IND - CDG tickets are?

So my question : how is the flight performing, and how is it performing v CVG - CDG. . . RDU - CDG?!

I do understand this is winter. Slow season .


Right now IND-CDG during the off season is bargin basement (sub $500). However it is outperforming virtually every other US-CDG market. This summer it will be a premium route with round trip tickets coming in at over $1000 for coach and some business class return trips approaching $10,000.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:59 pm
by fedex1
Wow! Didn’t know that!

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:24 am
by fedex1
How do you find out the performance of these routes ie. US - CDG . . . Compared to each other, as you mentioned above. IND - CDG, better performing route?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:26 am
by HeeseokKoo
Midwestindy wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
How many daily departures does Delta have at IND...

If it wouldn’t be too much, how many are mainline v regional....


41 next summer

Mainline 21 flights
IND-ATL 10x MD88
IND-MSP 3x A319
IND-MSP 2x B717
IND-CDG 1x B767
IND-DTW 1x A321
IND-LAX 1x B738
IND-SLC 1x B738
IND-MCO 1x A320
IND-SEA 1x A319

Regional 20 flights
IND-NYC 8x (CR9/E70/E75)
IND-DTW 6x (CR9/E70)
IND-BOS 4x (E70)
IND-RDU 2x (CRJ/CR7)

In terms of the # of flights, DL once again beats WN's planned 34 daily flights this summer. WN still offers more capacity (13 738 + 21 737 per a weekday).

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:37 am
by Midwestindy
kindeham wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
I was reading on the PIT 2019 Thread... how dirt cheap IND - CDG tickets are?

So my question : how is the flight performing, and how is it performing v CVG - CDG. . . RDU - CDG?!

I do understand this is winter. Slow season .


Right now IND-CDG during the off season is bargin basement (sub $500). However it is outperforming virtually every other US-CDG market. This summer it will be a premium route with round trip tickets coming in at over $1000 for coach and some business class return trips approaching $10,000.


Every single source has said the flight is doing very well, so I don't see any reason to be worried about its success.

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
How many daily departures does Delta have at IND...

If it wouldn’t be too much, how many are mainline v regional....


41 next summer

Mainline 21 flights
IND-ATL 10x MD88
IND-MSP 3x A319
IND-MSP 2x B717
IND-CDG 1x B767
IND-DTW 1x A321
IND-LAX 1x B738
IND-SLC 1x B738
IND-MCO 1x A320
IND-SEA 1x A319

Regional 20 flights
IND-NYC 8x (CR9/E70/E75)
IND-DTW 6x (CR9/E70)
IND-BOS 4x (E70)
IND-RDU 2x (CRJ/CR7)

In terms of the # of flights, DL once again beats WN's planned 34 daily flights this summer. WN still offers more capacity (13 738 + 21 737 per a weekday).


By August DL will pass and/or match WN in capacity. Last August WN had 4864 seats per weekday and with the loss of 3 daily flights, that would put it below DL's 4564 weekday seats. That isn't even including DL potentially implementing more upguages.

So there may be a new number #1 in IND soon.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:05 pm
by Midwestindy
Southwest Schedule extension for August/September comes out on Thursday. This year marks the 30th anniversary of WN at IND, however I don't expect much to come from that. If WN IND-SAN gets extended I think that will be a success.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:42 pm
by kindeham
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest Schedule extension for August/September comes out on Thursday. This year marks the 30th anniversary of WN at IND, however I don't expect much to come from that. If WN IND-SAN gets extended I think that will be a success.


When do the most recent numbers come out? I'm particularly curious about IND-CDG from the summer - seems like they should have been out by now, or did I miss a post?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:45 pm
by zackary747
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest Schedule extension for August/September comes out on Thursday. This year marks the 30th anniversary of WN at IND, however I don't expect much to come from that. If WN IND-SAN gets extended I think that will be a success.


Would be nice if Southwest would make an Indiana themed special livery for the 30th anniversary. Probably won't happen but it would be nice.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:40 pm
by Midwestindy
kindeham wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest Schedule extension for August/September comes out on Thursday. This year marks the 30th anniversary of WN at IND, however I don't expect much to come from that. If WN IND-SAN gets extended I think that will be a success.


When do the most recent numbers come out? I'm particularly curious about IND-CDG from the summer - seems like they should have been out by now, or did I miss a post?


July
IND-CDG-50.3% LF; 113,739 pounds of cargo
CDG-IND-92.4% LF; 283,564 pounds of cargo

DL IND-CUN-80.6%; CUN-IND-94.6%
AC IND-YYZ-74.5%; YYZ-IND-84.2%
Vacation Express IND-CUN-74.0%; CUN-IND-74.4%

October
AS IND-SEA 80.7%; SEA-IND-88.0%

AA IND-PHX 88.3%; PHX-IND-82.5%
AA IND-MIA 86.9%; MIA-IND-85.6%
AA IND-DFW 85.0%; DFW-IND-86.2%
AA IND-LAX 84.7%; LAX-IND-84.8%
AA IND-CLT 81.9%; CLT-IND-83.5%
AA IND-LGA 81.3%; LGA-IND-78.5%
AA IND-DCA 79.1%; DCA-IND-79.1%
AA IND-JFK 78.0%; JFK-IND-79.7%
Mainline/Envoy only IND-ORD 74.0%; ORD-IND-76.4%

DL IND-SLC-90.6%; SLC-IND-93.0%
DL IND-ATL 89.0%; ATL-IND-86.0%
DL IND-BOS 89.4%; BOS-IND-94.2% Wow
DL IND-RDU 86.4%; RDU-IND-87.3%
DL IND-LAX 86.5%; LAX-IND-72.1%
DL IND-MCO 83.1%; MCO-IND-82.5%
DL IND-MSP 81.9%; MSP-IND-81.7%
DL IND-JFK 80.3%; JFK-IND-82.1%
DL IND-DTW 78.8%; DTW-IND-84.3%
DL IND-LGA 75.4%; LGA-IND-81.5%
DL IND-SEA 69.5%; SEA-IND-76.1%

WN IND-LAS 93.1%; LAS-IND-91.0%
WN IND-FLL 92.2%; FLL-IND-80.5%
WN IND-DAL 91.4%; DAL-IND-91.6%
WN IND-LAX 90.7%; LAX-IND-79.3%
WN IND-HOU 90.1%; HOU-IND-82.5%
WN IND-MCO 89.8%; MCO-IND-83.9%
WN IND-PHX 89.4%; PHX-IND-94.7%
WN IND-DEN 89.3%; DEN-IND-90.7%
WN IND-ATL 87.9%; ATL-IND-82.9%
WN IND-BWI 86.9%; BWI-IND-86.3%
WN IND-TPA 86.2%; TPA-IND-83.7%
WN IND-MSY 85.7%; MSY-IND-93.7%
WN IND-RSW 82.4%; RSW-IND-74.4%
WN IND-OAK 80.9%; OAK-IND-81.5%
WN IND-AUS 80.3%; AUS-IND-85.1%
WN IND-MDW 79.3%; MDW-IND-82.9%
WN IND-MCI 76.8%; MCI-IND-75.8%
WN IND-BOS 76.3%; BOS-IND-93.6% Very surprising
WN IND-EWR 66.5%; EWR-IND-69.2%

UA IND-IAH 91.7%; IAH-IND-87.3%
UA IND-DEN 87.5%; DEN-IND-89.9%
UA IND-ORD 86.2%; ORD-IND-78.3%
UA IND-EWR 84.7%; EWR-IND-85.1%
UA IND-IAD 80.6%; IAD-IND-80.9%
UA IND-SFO 79.5%; SFO-IND-79.4%

F9 IND-AUS 93.2%; AUS-IND-81.5%
F9 IND-LAS 93.0%; LAS-IND-87.7%
F9 IND-DEN 89.8%; DEN-IND-93.9%
F9 IND-MCO 86.1%; MCO-IND-84.2%
F9 IND-SAN 79.8%; SAN-IND-88.5%

G4 IND-LAS 93.0%; LAS-IND-91.7%
G4 IND-PIE 88.7%; PIE-IND-88.9%
G4 IND-SRQ 88.6%; SRQ-IND-81.1%
G4 IND-FLL 88.0%; FLL-IND-83.4%
G4 IND-SFB 86.1%; SFB-IND-81.6%
G4 IND-PGD 83.9%; PGD-IND-80.2%
G4 IND-JAX 81.3%; JAX-IND-81.6%
G4 IND-CHS 74.3%; CHS-IND-71.4%
G4 IND-AUS 71.8%; AUS-IND-71.4%

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:50 pm
by FA9295
I've seen quite a few times on this thread that the CDG-IND leg has significantly higher LF% than the IND-CDG leg. Why is that? It looks like there is also a lot more cargo on the CDG-IND leg as well.

I would think that the point of sale would be better from IND than from CDG.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:53 pm
by jplatts
Midwestindy wrote:
October
WN IND-BOS 76.3%; BOS-IND-93.6% Very surprising


I can explain the disparity between load factors on the WN BOS-IND nonstops since there were probably either (a) some passengers were connecting to BOS from IND through BWI on WN, (b) some passengers connecting to places further west from BOS through IND on WN, or (c) a combination of the two.

I am unsure why WN has cut back on IND-BOS to Saturday-only nonstop service in Summer 2019 when B6 hasn't yet announced plans to start service out of IND.

WN has also cut back on BOS-ATL, BOS-MDW, BOS-HOU, BOS-MCI, and BOS-MKE, but WN will still have daily nonstop service to BOS from ATL, MDW, HOU, MCI, and MKE in Summer 2019.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:15 am
by btvflyer1
zackary747 wrote:
I'll move my 2019 predictions over to this new forum.

JetBlue (BOS and maybe FLL)
Spirit to FLL and TPA. RSW, DFW, IAH could be added afterward.
Allegiant to SJU and/or EWR and possibly the temporary suspended AZA flight could come back late 2019.
Alaska to PDX (seasonal) and maybe SAN (This could also be a 2020 announcement/start up depending on how slow AS is)
Frontier adds 1-2 routes and then drops them 6 months after they start
DL or AM to MEX (Could be a 2019 announcement, 2020 start up)
AC (Maybe YUL)
Southwest (Maybe BNA. I don't see anything else other than that. They're in stagnation mode)

Less Likely but possible

LCC to Europe: Icelandair to KEF or Condor to FRA.

I also will not entertain the Asia flight idea until MEX is announced first. I am convinced the state is 100 percent focused on that first and then Asia thereafter.


Don't think there is any way IND gets a nonstop to Asia in the near future considering that the only international route (excluding Canada) is DL's IND-CDG. A DL or BA nonstop to LHR on a 767/787 or D8 to LGW seems more likely to happen than something such as IND-NRT. Even an AF nonstop to CDG on an A330 seems far more likely than direct flights to Japan or China. Then again, IND handles a lot of cargo aircraft and is configured to handle an A380 if necessary, so you never know.

AM or DL to MEX seems likely, considering that Aeromexico and Delta are both part of Skyteam (important because Delta offers the only international option from IND at the moment.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:20 am
by Midwestindy
fedex1 wrote:
How do you find out the performance of these routes ie. US - CDG . . . Compared to each other, as you mentioned above. IND - CDG, better performing route?


Basing off of LFs and Cargo for other DL 767 routes to/from LHR, CDG, AMS (Which is flawed, but is virtually the only way to compare routes)

June
IND-CDG was #5 out of 18 in terms of enplanements, and # 5 in terms of cargo carried
CDG-IND was #15 out of 18 in terms of enplanements, and #7 in terms of cargo carried

July
IND-CDG was #15 out of 18 in terms of enplanements, and # 8 in terms of cargo carried
CDG-IND was #3 out of 18 in terms of enplanements, and #5 in terms of cargo carried

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:02 am
by Midwestindy
btvflyer1 wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
I'll move my 2019 predictions over to this new forum.

JetBlue (BOS and maybe FLL)
Spirit to FLL and TPA. RSW, DFW, IAH could be added afterward.
Allegiant to SJU and/or EWR and possibly the temporary suspended AZA flight could come back late 2019.
Alaska to PDX (seasonal) and maybe SAN (This could also be a 2020 announcement/start up depending on how slow AS is)
Frontier adds 1-2 routes and then drops them 6 months after they start
DL or AM to MEX (Could be a 2019 announcement, 2020 start up)
AC (Maybe YUL)
Southwest (Maybe BNA. I don't see anything else other than that. They're in stagnation mode)

Less Likely but possible

LCC to Europe: Icelandair to KEF or Condor to FRA.

I also will not entertain the Asia flight idea until MEX is announced first. I am convinced the state is 100 percent focused on that first and then Asia thereafter.


Don't think there is any way IND gets a nonstop to Asia in the near future considering that the only international route (excluding Canada) is DL's IND-CDG. A DL or BA nonstop to LHR on a 767/787 or D8 to LGW seems more likely to happen than something such as IND-NRT. Even an AF nonstop to CDG on an A330 seems far more likely than direct flights to Japan or China. Then again, IND handles a lot of cargo aircraft and is configured to handle an A380 if necessary, so you never know.

AM or DL to MEX seems likely, considering that Aeromexico and Delta are both part of Skyteam (important because Delta offers the only international option from IND at the moment.


Here is an exerpt from an interview (Skip to 3 minute mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jgjqTqdz7o

Where are you on landing additional nonstop flights?
“We are going to continue to work on nonstop domestic flights, even though we have 51, we can never seem to have enough. Being able to reach out and touch, Washington, San Francisco, Boston, is very important for our businesses who work with Boeing out in Washington, our aerospace and defense.

But we are also working on Asia, we’d like to do more in Asia. We’d like to do more in Europe eventually, but we are in a 2 year plan with Delta. And we would also like to reach out into Central and South America. We already have flights going into Canada so we feel pretty good about that.

But the Governor’s Next Level Connectivity plan, he’s pulled out all the stops to make sure he takes Indiana to the world, and brings the world to Indiana. And these nonstop and international flights are the cornerstone of that."

As you look at Mexico City, as you look at Asia, and those markets, do you think there is interest there?
"Oh yeah, there is definite interest there. As you take Asia for instance, between the work we have in Japan and the highest per capita investor in the United States comes to Indiana from Japan. 280 businesses, 58,000 people, 3 OEMs, the only state in the country to have 3 Japanese OEMs (Toyota, Subaru, and Honda), you look at our businesses and the connectivity is there. So, in having gone on the travels around the world in the past year, I know the importance of direct flights. It’s something we were encouraged to do and we are following through with it."

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:20 am
by filbrkz
“We are going to continue to work on nonstop domestic flights, even though we have 51, we can never seem to have enough."

More like 51 DESTINATIONS. How many daily flights is IND up to now? 150?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:37 pm
by kindeham
FA9295 wrote:
I've seen quite a few times on this thread that the CDG-IND leg has significantly higher LF% than the IND-CDG leg. Why is that? It looks like there is also a lot more cargo on the CDG-IND leg as well.

I would think that the point of sale would be better from IND than from CDG.


I believe what you are seeing is a route in its infancy. A ton of people flew from IND to CDG in June and returned in July - along with a bunch of people starting their trip from CDG. The route wasn't really well balanced - that is where weren't enough travelers needing a return trip on either end so it became lopsided. You will see this smooth out in future months (that is August onward) as travelers start to get distributed at either end. Another thing that may play a factor is that European summer vacation come later than in the US (July/August) and last far longer (often 3 weeks in a row, depending on the country).

Please note I only mentioned IND and CDG, but in reality there are tons of connecting passengers at either end, just for simplicity sake I just use those city pairs. Assume I'm also talking about East/Westbound connecting passengers.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:09 pm
by Midwestindy
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf

November Numbers

YTD 8,672,956 +7.4%
YTD Cargo +1.9%

Nov '18 v Nov '17
AS -31.1%
AC +20.6%
G4 +26.9%
AA +3.5%
DL +15.2%
F9 -11.1%
WN +2.1%
UA -0.8%

YTD Market Share (compared to YE '17)
WN 31.2% (-1.7%)
DL 23.3% (+0.8%)
AA 21.9% (-0.3%)
UA 12.4% (-1.0%)
G4 5.7% (+1.5%)
F9 2.9% (+0.1%)
AS 1.7% (+0.7%)

DL is still growing at a blistering pace, I doubt there are very many other DL stations growing at this rate
NOV +15.2%
DL +11.3%
SEP +14.8%
AUG +19.5%
JUL +14.9%
JUN +13.1%

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:56 pm
by Midwestindy
kindeham wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I've seen quite a few times on this thread that the CDG-IND leg has significantly higher LF% than the IND-CDG leg. Why is that? It looks like there is also a lot more cargo on the CDG-IND leg as well.

I would think that the point of sale would be better from IND than from CDG.


I believe what you are seeing is a route in its infancy. A ton of people flew from IND to CDG in June and returned in July - along with a bunch of people starting their trip from CDG. The route wasn't really well balanced - that is where weren't enough travelers needing a return trip on either end so it became lopsided. You will see this smooth out in future months (that is August onward) as travelers start to get distributed at either end. Another thing that may play a factor is that European summer vacation come later than in the US (July/August) and last far longer (often 3 weeks in a row, depending on the country).

Please note I only mentioned IND and CDG, but in reality there are tons of connecting passengers at either end, just for simplicity sake I just use those city pairs. Assume I'm also talking about East/Westbound connecting passengers.


It is a bit easier to estimate LFs more now for Sep-Nov considering the int'l passengers after summer are virtually only YYZ and CDG

It looks like the LFs are hovering between high 60% to low 80% from Aug-Nov

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:13 pm
by kindeham
Midwestindy wrote:

It is a bit easier to estimate LFs more now for Sep-Nov considering the int'l passengers after summer are virtually only YYZ and CDG

It looks like the LFs are hovering between high 60% to low 80% from Aug-Nov


I am curious - is there some sort of non specific international traffic metric provided already? Just curious what you are basing these off of - I am thinking I'm missing out on something.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:23 pm
by Midwestindy
kindeham wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

It is a bit easier to estimate LFs more now for Sep-Nov considering the int'l passengers after summer are virtually only YYZ and CDG

It looks like the LFs are hovering between high 60% to low 80% from Aug-Nov


I am curious - is there some sort of non specific international traffic metric provided already? Just curious what you are basing these off of - I am thinking I'm missing out on something.


I'm basing it off of the airports int'l passenger stats, if you go to the website only November is available for this year, however the links have been saved on this forum:

August
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf
September
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf
October
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf
November
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... _FINAL.pdf

August/November get a little tricky since there are CUN flights mixed in to those numbers.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:30 pm
by Midwestindy
Southwest schedule extension is out

IND-OAK goes down to 5x weekly
IND-RSW goes down to weekend only in September
IND-BOS continues sat only
IND-MDW stays down to 1x daily, but changes to 3x for Sundays
IND-BWI goes up to 4x daily weekday/Sunday
IND-PHX/HOU gain a frequency

Another sizable shrinkage, so it looks like DL will be sizably larger than WN come August/September

I think this might be the time where NK/DL/G4 might try and swoop in and add more flights.

IND-SAN is unserved for 10 months of the year
IND-SAT is unserved
IND-PDX is unserved
IND-Tampa is underserved
IND-Austin is underserved
IND-New Orleans is underserved
IND-BOS is virtually a monopoly now
IND-PHL is underserved/insanely priced
IND lacks nonstop Caribbean destinations outside of the token CUN/PUJ

There are some holes that can be filled, and not just for Aug/Sep, but year-round

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:00 pm
by flyboy80
I don't want to be negative but I'm not optimistic in regard to Delta expanding a lot here. I don't think some of these markets discussed can justify service that's not infrequent and operated by the likes of G4, F9, NK. DL for example; PDX is well served via connections through SLC and MSP- and in fact most of the regions between them) and same can be said for places like TPA and MSY via ATL. I don't think it makes sense in the network of DL to operate p2p "around" the hubs to the extent it hurts the effectiveness of the hubs in the first place. Perhaps there will be more mainline year round to the hubs, but not P2P around them. Maybe DL will add 1or 2x daily RJ service to AUS, PBI, ORD (they are doing RDU-ORD right, so it could happen) and up LAX and/or SLC to twice daily in the summer months. I don't think we can expect a lot more than that. The next 12 months will be interesting for the Delta network. As more A220 come online and are dispersed, I imagine the RJ's will be shuffled around some. IIRC the 717 base in LA is closing and the 717s are going to be concentrated in the east. Hopefully that means some of the CR9s/175 frequencies become 717.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:49 pm
by stlgph
I agree with some points, i.e. PDX, but as for TPA and other Florida markets, a number of them have been proven to historically sustain two, if not three carriers on them, and the demand remains. Fares from IND to Florida are "usually always pretty damn good" so I'm just surprised that DL would do something such as charge $100 one way to TPA and have people connect in Atlanta rather than try to move the inventory pool ATL-TPA over to other cities commanding $200 one way. One would think nonstops to such a destination may appeal to the frequent flyer base and frequent customer base.

But, it is what it is and I guess that's why I'm sitting here rather than in ATL at the DL headquarters.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:57 pm
by Midwestindy
flyboy80 wrote:
I don't want to be negative but I'm not optimistic in regard to Delta expanding a lot here. I don't think some of these markets discussed can justify service that's not infrequent and operated by the likes of G4, F9, NK. DL for example; PDX is well served via connections through SLC and MSP- and in fact most of the regions between them) and same can be said for places like TPA and MSY via ATL. I don't think it makes sense in the network of DL to operate p2p "around" the hubs to the extent it hurts the effectiveness of the hubs in the first place. Perhaps there will be more mainline year round to the hubs, but not P2P around them. Maybe DL will add 1or 2x daily RJ service to AUS, PBI, ORD (they are doing RDU-ORD right, so it could happen) and up LAX and/or SLC to twice daily in the summer months. I don't think we can expect a lot more than that. The next 12 months will be interesting for the Delta network. As more A220 come online and are dispersed, I imagine the RJ's will be shuffled around some. IIRC the 717 base in LA is closing and the 717s are going to be concentrated in the east. Hopefully that means some of the CR9s/175 frequencies become 717.


To be specific, I did not mean to imply DL would start a plethora of p2p service.

Really the only p2p expansions I see from DL are TPA, RSW, MCO, AUS, MEX and potentially 2-3 years down the road WestJet (4 of which were already ran by DL at some point). However, they will undoubtedly continue to grow their existing routes. DL has emphasized frequently that IND is an important airport of them, and their ultimate goal is to become the largest carrier.

My point was just a general point that there are unserved/underserved destinations that should be filled, and not specifically by DL.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:29 pm
by indygs
And I'll wave the DCA flag for DL. If they want to be #1 in Indy, one of the ways to do that is to be the only carrier with direct service to BOS, DCA and NYC out of IND. AA, UA and DL each have two airports covered out of IND, I'd think the first to three would add another feather in their cap, presumably helpful with corporate contracts.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:30 pm
by indygs
And I'll wave the DCA flag for DL. If they want to be #1 in Indy, one of the ways to do that is to be the only carrier with direct service to BOS, DCA and NYC out of IND. AA, UA and DL each have two airports covered out of IND, I'd think the first to three would add another feather in their cap, presumably helpful with corporate contracts.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:16 pm
by cvgComair
DL doesn't have the slots to do IND-DCA.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:09 am
by Jshank83
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest schedule extension is out

IND-OAK goes down to 5x weekly
IND-RSW goes down to weekend only in September
IND-BOS continues sat only
IND-MDW stays down to 1x daily, but changes to 3x for Sundays
IND-BWI goes up to 4x daily weekday/Sunday
IND-PHX/HOU gain a frequency



Is this a change from summer or YOY?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:28 am
by Midwestindy
Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest schedule extension is out

IND-OAK goes down to 5x weekly
IND-RSW goes down to weekend only in September
IND-BOS continues sat only
IND-MDW stays down to 1x daily, but changes to 3x for Sundays
IND-BWI goes up to 4x daily weekday/Sunday
IND-PHX/HOU gain a frequency



Is this a change from summer or YOY?


YOY, I have kept records of Southwest schedules dating back to 2017