stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:32 pm

This guy truly, truly loves himself more than anything else in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Rod ... _executive)
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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:20 pm

Fedex is the only reason IND is not still at the “Old Airport” they pay IND millions and ask for nothing in return .. anyone could run IND. With some basic math skills..they can’t even operate a 24 hour bus downtown to help the FedEx workers without a car get their night shifts ... they also pay zero property tax to Wayne And Decatur townships . So they are a burden on those communities ..
 
airboss787
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:02 pm

COSPN wrote:
Fedex is the only reason IND is not still at the “Old Airport” they pay IND millions and ask for nothing in return ..


How is that possible? FedEx is not a charity to just pay the airport for nothing in return. It is a business and that is always a 2-way street. Can you explain how they ask for nothing? Do they not use the land and runways that they have to pay for? They do get a tax break, so they pay less than they probably should.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:20 pm

EMB170 wrote:
The original master plan stated that IND could have up to 50 gates (they currently have IIRC ~40-44ish). In addition to A1, A2, B1, and B2, there is also the potential to add missing gates on both concourses (A9, A18, A19, B11, B18, and B19).

As demand warrants, I'm sure they'll look at filling in the blanks.

As consolidation both among airlines and airports occurs, cities that are growing the way IND is will more than likely be prime targets for European carriers and their US partners. DL seems to be doing well with its CDG service; in a few years time, I could see BA (or AA) adding LHR if demand warrants. A common lounge would seem like the best solution...and never say never on an Admirals Club...L-US used to have a club in the old IND on D concourse for many years....


I believe there are currently 39 gates (including 2 int'l gates)

Here is one picture from August 15th, 2008 vs October 2019. As far as I can see the gates were removed in order to add gate space, IMO, because as upguaging has occurred the gate space per aircraft needs to be much wider than it did in 2008. Therefore, I doubt any of those gates will be re-added, considering the planes that RON at IND now are generally much larger than in 2008.
Image
Image

IndyHoosier wrote:
EMB170 wrote:
The original master plan stated that IND could have up to 50 gates (they currently have IIRC ~40-44ish). In addition to A1, A2, B1, and B2, there is also the potential to add missing gates on both concourses (A9, A18, A19, B11, B18, and B19).


Yeah, I remember seeing a master plan drawing for the terminal that showed the future expansion of the current terminal by adding 10 gates to each of the current concourses, for a total of 60, and then if needed, a future X-shaped terminal to the northeast of the current terminal.


The poster Indy had a great website back in the day, here is the link: https://www.indairport.org/
This is the old Master plan from his website
https://www.indairport.org/downloads/mi ... lowres.pdf

My oh my how things change
Image
Image
Image

COSPN wrote:
Fedex is the only reason IND is not still at the “Old Airport” they pay IND millions and ask for nothing in return .. anyone could run IND. With some basic math skills..they can’t even operate a 24 hour bus downtown to help the FedEx workers without a car get their night shifts ... they also pay zero property tax to Wayne And Decatur townships . So they are a burden on those communities ..


One of the main reasons why IND is issuing more debt is to fund projects to aid in FedEx's expansion, so it goes both ways. I'd say IND has done a good job, even though it is easy to poke holes, given the route network and development happening at the airport. Don't forget Infosys's huge campus, and how many nearby jobs are created from having a FedEx hub on the property.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Big day for IND tomorrow.

NK starts up TPA and RSW.

G4 starts up TUS.

I'm expecting some press release tomorrow, I'm a bit surprised they didn't put out a press release for their Q3 numbers which they do after every quarter.....maybe they weren't happy about the numbers.


I'm curious on when they announce their next routes out of here. I'd imagine FLL is next. Lots of connecting options there Caribbean/South America wise.


It appears they are keeping MYR, as they mention RSW & TPA are the 4th and 5th destinations from NK. John Kirby the VP of Network Planning for NK knows the IND market well, and he's mentioned before that IND heavily leans to the west coast of Florida, making IND-FLL more difficult to enter than RSW, MCO, and TPA. We'll see how IND-RSW/TPA perform, which will likely determine what happens with IND-FLL.


If they're keeping MYR then when is it going to appear in the schedule? I seriously wonder if it's an error in the press release. You think you might be able to get more info on that?
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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:05 pm

A19 does not exist ... how hard can it be to run a bus from IND to Downtown ... I know the Blue line is in the works but this should have been done years ago ..
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Concierge
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:59 am

I'm not sure a 24H bus is necessary. FedEx night shift is 2200-0500. The Washington St. bus runs to the airport until 2300 and starts eastbound trips at 0502. There is no overnight service on any IndyGo line that I know of. The Red Line's last run leaves the Transit Center at 0045, so there wouldn't be a connecting ride after that time.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:35 am

zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:

I'm curious on when they announce their next routes out of here. I'd imagine FLL is next. Lots of connecting options there Caribbean/South America wise.


It appears they are keeping MYR, as they mention RSW & TPA are the 4th and 5th destinations from NK. John Kirby the VP of Network Planning for NK knows the IND market well, and he's mentioned before that IND heavily leans to the west coast of Florida, making IND-FLL more difficult to enter than RSW, MCO, and TPA. We'll see how IND-RSW/TPA perform, which will likely determine what happens with IND-FLL.


If they're keeping MYR then when is it going to appear in the schedule? I seriously wonder if it's an error in the press release. You think you might be able to get more info on that?


The current schedule only goes through June 9th, therefore there is still a decent chance it will run from June-August, so until they extend the schedule I'll probably give it the benefit of the doubt that it is coming back albeit with a shortened season.

COSPN wrote:
A19 does not exist ... how hard can it be to run a bus from IND to Downtown ... I know the Blue line is in the works but this should have been done years ago ..
http://Www.laxflyaway.org


Bus from IND to Downtown already exists
https://www.indygo.net/route/8-washington/

There wasn't enough demand years ago to demand the Blue line to be built
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:47 am

Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

It appears they are keeping MYR, as they mention RSW & TPA are the 4th and 5th destinations from NK. John Kirby the VP of Network Planning for NK knows the IND market well, and he's mentioned before that IND heavily leans to the west coast of Florida, making IND-FLL more difficult to enter than RSW, MCO, and TPA. We'll see how IND-RSW/TPA perform, which will likely determine what happens with IND-FLL.


If they're keeping MYR then when is it going to appear in the schedule? I seriously wonder if it's an error in the press release. You think you might be able to get more info on that?


The current schedule only goes through June 9th, therefore there is still a decent chance it will run from June-August, so until they extend the schedule I'll probably give it the benefit of the doubt that it is coming back albeit with a shortened season.

COSPN wrote:
A19 does not exist ... how hard can it be to run a bus from IND to Downtown ... I know the Blue line is in the works but this should have been done years ago ..
http://Www.laxflyaway.org


Bus from IND to Downtown already exists
https://www.indygo.net/route/8-washington/

There wasn't enough demand years ago to demand the Blue line to be built


Also, there is BlueIndy at the airport as well. The largest electric car rental system in the US.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:55 pm

May Stats:
I'd say this is a pretty good month for int'l
IND-CDG-88.0%; CDG-IND-66.9%

Similar to peers: CVG-CDG-88.3%, RDU-CDG-83.9%, TPA-AMS-82.8%; AMS-TPA-57.3%, CDG-CVG-67.1%, CDG-RDU-71.6%

WN IND-CUN-84.1%; CUN-IND-84.1%
DL IND-CUN-89.4%; CUN-IND-88.9%
AC IND-YYZ-87.3%; YYZ-IND-77.5%

August:

West Coast stays strong, but generally domestic is down due to schools being back in session

AS IND-SEA-90.6%; SEA-IND-95.3%

G4 IND-LAS-92.2%; LAS-IND-92.2%
G4 IND-FLL-90.5%; FLL-IND-94.3%
G4 IND-PGD-90.3%; PGD-IND-95.8%
G4 IND-PIE-90.2%; PIE-IND-95.1%
G4 IND-AUS-88.3%; AUS-IND-81.2%
G4 IND-SFB-87.2%; SFB-IND-93.1%
G4 IND-JAX-83.6%; JAX-IND-87.5%
G4 IND-CHS-80.4%; CHS-IND-80.6%
G4 IND-SRQ-72.0%; SRQ-IND-98.0%
G4 IND-SAV-71.6%; SAV-IND-82.9%
G4 IND-MYR-61.0%; MYR-IND-80.5%
G4 IND-VPS-54.7%; VPS-IND-81.6%

AA IND-LAX-91.2%; LAX-IND-93.9%
AA IND-PHX-87.3%; PHX-IND-91.8%
AA IND-DFW-84.8%; DFW-IND-85.1%
AA IND-JFK-80.7%; JFK-IND-74.1%
AA IND-CLT-78.9%; CLT-IND-80.5%
AA IND-ORD-78.4%; ORD-IND-77.9%
AA IND-LGA-76.0%; LGA-IND-81.8% Envoy only
AA IND-DCA-75.5%; DCA-IND-73.6%
AA IND-MIA-70.7%; MIA-IND-81.0%
AA IND-PHL-68.9%; PHL-IND-72.9%

DL IND-SEA-90.0%; SEA-IND-95.4%
DL IND-SLC-89.9%; SLC-IND-94.2%
DL IND-LAX-89.1%; LAX-IND-93.9%

DL IND-MSP-88.8%; MSP-IND-84.7%
DL IND-ATL-82.9%; ATL-IND-83.9%
DL IND-RDU-80.8%; RDU-IND-78.3%
DL IND-LGA-76.4%; LGA-IND-74.4%(69 seat only)
DL IND-BOS-74.6; BOS-IND-76.1%
DL IND-JFK-71.7%; JFK-IND-77.9%
DL IND-DTW-69.6%; DTW-IND-71.5%
DL IND-MCO-66.3%; MCO-IND-77.1%

F9 IND-LAS-88.6%; LAS-IND-94.7%
F9 IND-DEN-88.1%; DEN-IND-77.5%
F9 IND-MCO-82.6%; MCO-IND-81.4%

WN IND-LAX-95.2%; LAX-IND-94.3%

WN IND-LAS-91.1%; LAS-IND-91.5%
WN IND-PHX-90.8%; PHX-IND-87.3%
WN IND-SAN-90.0%; SAN-IND-90.9%
WN IND-DEN-90.0%; DEN-IND-89.8%
WN IND-BOS-88.1%; BOS-IND-88.0%
WN IND-DAL-86.3%; DAL-IND-88.2%
WN IND-AUS-80.4%; AUS-IND-90.0%
WN IND-MCO-79.6%; MCO-IND-79.4%
WN IND-MDW-79.5%; MDW-IND-88.4%
WN IND-HOU-76.6%; HOU-IND-75.4%
WN IND-MSY-75.9%; MSY-IND-96.7%
WN IND-FLL-75.7%; FLL-IND-79.7%
WN IND-RSW-75.5; RSW-IND-89.0%
WN IND-ATL-75.0%; ATL-IND-65.4%
WN IND-BWI-72.9%; BWI-IND-80.0%
WN IND-TPA-69.1%; TPA-IND-78.2%
WN IND-MCI-68.0%; MCI-IND-64.1%

NK IND-MCO-71.9%; MCO-IND-83.6%
NK IND-LAS-78.8%; LAS-IND-73.2%
NK IND-MYR-54.4%; MYR-IND-71.5%

UA IND-DEN-89.2%; DEN-IND-89.9%
UA IND-IAH-85.1%; IAH-IND-85.4%
UA IND-EWR-84.1%; EWR-IND-86.5%
UA IND-ORD-79.8%; ORD-IND-82.9%
UA IND-IAD-79.4%; IAD-IND-82.2%
UA IND-SFO-78.6%; SFO-IND-87.3%

For May-August:
AS IND-SEA-94.1%; SEA-IND-94.4% (B739)

DL IND-SEA-94.8%; SEA-IND-95.3% (A319)
DL IND-LAX-92.8%; LAX-IND-92.9% (B738)
DL IND-SLC-92.6%; SLC-IND-94.3% (B738)
DL IND-MSP-91.9%; MSP-IND-89.2% (Mix)

AA IND-LAX-95.4%; LAX-IND-92.4% (A319)
AA IND-PHX-93.7%; PHX-IND-95.7% (A319)

WN IND-LAX-95.5%; LAX-IND-95.4%
WN IND-PHX-91.8%; PHX-IND-89.9%
WN IND-SAN-90.4%; SAN-IND-93.2%

UA IND-DEN-93.0%; DEN-IND-92.6% (Mostly RJ)

Strong candidates for upguaging/additional service next summer
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:16 pm

https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

The $5.5M in incentives for IND-CDG flights have been fully paid out, way ahead of schedule.
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BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:46 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transparencyportal/viewtaxgrantloancontract/f18210a56ba7e71181231458d04d95c0?yearStart=2017&yearEnd&fundTypes=6c074cbb614ce71180fa005056b34823

The $5.5M in incentives for IND-CDG flights have been fully paid out, way ahead of schedule.


Is this a good or a bad thing?
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:48 am

I would say that is very good!! They were ahead of schedule by 7 months at the minimum. This second year must have really picked up in loads. Great job!!! Hope it stays year round!!!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:51 pm

Finally found out the gate leases as of July, if these are wrong let me know:
G4-B3
AS-B5
AA-B6, B7, B8, B9, B10, B13, B14
WN-B17, B20, B21, B22, B23, B24
Common Use: B4, B15, B16, B25

F9-A3
Airport Owned (Int'l gates)-A4, A5
DL-A6, A7, A8, A11, A14
AC-A17, A21, A23, A25
NK-A20
Common Use: A10, A12, A13, A15, A16, A22, A24

A few changes this morning:
January-Early February IND-DEN decreased to 2x daily
March IND-EWR B738 added Sunday only
April UA IND-ORD downguaged to 8/10 daily being on 50 seaters, 5 of which are CR2s
April UA IND-SFO evening flight upguaged to a B738
May DL added B739 on IND-MSP

fedex1 wrote:
I would say that is very good!! They were ahead of schedule by 7 months at the minimum. This second year must have really picked up in loads. Great job!!! Hope it stays year round!!!


DL updated their schedule last night:

September IND-CDG now listed as daily
October IND-CDG now listed as 6x weekly

Still very early, but definitely appears encouraging
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:29 pm

What did the CDG flight start out as?? Or sept and October? I can’t remember.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:30 pm

Frequency wise...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:50 pm

fedex1 wrote:
What did the CDG flight start out as?? Or sept and October? I can’t remember.


My mistake, October is still listed as 5x weekly.

September 2018 was 5x weekly
September 2019 was 6x weekly
September 2020 is listed as daily
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:28 am

Finally found out the gate leases as of July, if these are wrong let me know:
G4-B3
AS-B5
AA-B6, B7, B8, B9, B10, B13, B14
WN-B17, B20, B21, B22, B23, B24
Common Use: B4, B15, B16, B25

F9-A3
Airport Owned (Int'l gates)-A4, A5
DL-A6, A7, A8, A11, A14
AC-A17, A21, A23, A25
NK-A20
Common Use: A10, A12, A13, A15, A16, A22, A24


Ok, I am confused. Where is UA listed on here and why does AC have so many gates?
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:33 pm

AA pushed their schedule through March 4th
AA is pushing the start of 2x daily IND-LAX up to February 14th, I'm wondering if this has anything to do with WN
AA IND-MIA retains the B738
AA IND-NYC continues all E175
AA as mentioned before is starting 6 daily IND-DFW on March 5th

zackary747 wrote:
Finally found out the gate leases as of July, if these are wrong let me know:
G4-B3
AS-B5
AA-B6, B7, B8, B9, B10, B13, B14
WN-B17, B20, B21, B22, B23, B24
Common Use: B4, B15, B16, B25

F9-A3
Airport Owned (Int'l gates)-A4, A5
DL-A6, A7, A8, A11, A14
AC-A17, A21, A23, A25
NK-A20
Common Use: A10, A12, A13, A15, A16, A22, A24


Ok, I am confused. Where is UA listed on here and why does AC have so many gates?


UA/AC share gates
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ATAIndy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Finally found out the gate leases as of July, if these are wrong let me know:


To my knowledge, it is correct as posted except for B5 is common use/per charge to AS. I do not think they have the gate leased out right.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:50 pm

Infosys campus phase 1 is planned to open October 2020:
-Only 600 permanent staff in Phase 1, plus a 250 person training center
-They are still on track for 3,000 permanent staff at the airport site by 2023
https://www.insideindianabusiness.com/s ... e-for-indy
Image
Image



ATAIndy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Finally found out the gate leases as of July, if these are wrong let me know:


To my knowledge, it is correct as posted except for B5 is common use/per charge to AS. I do not think they have the gate leased out right.


Ah okay, that makes sense considering I see G4 using B5 occasionally.

I was surprised by how few gates are leased by DL compared to AA, DL operates nearly the same number of departures with larger aircraft.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:20 pm

There was a little talk a while back about the effect the increased rates might have on airlines, so I looked into it a bit

Below are pictures from one of the meetings about the rate increase:

Although it is a bit blurry, you can see a few things:
1. The green represents the rates expected by airlines under the airline use agreement that ran through 2018. You can see that rates were significantly lower than expected during this time.
2. The Orange represents expected rates under the new airline use agreement which took into effect of 2019. Ultimately, the CPE is still below the expected rate under the new airline use agreement, so I don't see any concern there
Image

Same things can basically be said about the landing fee rates as well, in that they are still below the rates that airlines expected under the airline use agreement
Image

Looking into the 2020 budget: https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1118105426

They are even expecting a 4.5% enplaned passenger increase, so it looks like the airport is on the right track
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flyguy89
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:16 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
There was a little talk a while back about the effect the increased rates might have on airlines, so I looked into it a bit

Below are pictures from one of the meetings about the rate increase:

Although it is a bit blurry, you can see a few things:
1. The green represents the rates expected by airlines under the airline use agreement that ran through 2018. You can see that rates were significantly lower than expected during this time.
2. The Orange represents expected rates under the new airline use agreement which took into effect of 2019. Ultimately, the CPE is still below the expected rate under the new airline use agreement, so I don't see any concern there
Image

Same things can basically be said about the landing fee rates as well, in that they are still below the rates that airlines expected under the airline use agreement
Image

Looking into the 2020 budget: https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1118105426

They are even expecting a 4.5% enplaned passenger increase, so it looks like the airport is on the right track

It's still crazy to me that they're going to raise fees when almost all of their peer airports are lowering theirs.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:00 pm

I have some updated Q2 Demand Numbers

First: It appears IND-CUN has the 9th most passengers connecting to CUN, out of all US markets (22nd largest overall). While F9 is entering the market 2x weekly I believe there is still room in the market to expand.
https://www.anna.aero/2019/11/22/cancun ... t-returns/

Second: Went into a deeper look at MCI-IND, and how it matches up yield wise considering they are cutting back to once daily for a period early next year.
Green is MCI-IND, Red is MCI-BOS which is being cut
Image

Ultimately, MCI-IND is performing better than Loads would indicate

Now Q2 2019 demand data:
-I only included markets with more than 20 PDEW
-74% of Markets with more than 20 PDEW from IND saw an increase in Prices
Top 5 Routes:
-NYC-690 PDEW-$246
-MCO-634 PDEW-$158
-WAS-599 PDEW-$208
-LA-518 PDEW-$276
-LAS-470 PDEW-$189
Largest Increases in Demand (PDEW):
-MIA: +29
-SRQ: +26
-SEA: +21
-LA: +19
-RSW: +15
*SRQ growth results from new G4 service
Largest decreases in Demand (PDEW):
-NYC: -105
-Bay Area: -36
-BOS: -34
-PHL: -30
-WAS: -19
*NYC drop a result of WN leaving the market, and UA decreasing mainline to EWR. BOS/PHL decreases due to F9 and WN exits of the markets
Largest Increases in Fares:
-NYC: +$55
-BOI: +$47
-PHL: +$46
-SMF: +$43
-Bay Area: +$41
*PHL increases a result of F9 exiting the market, *SFO increases as a result of loss of AS, and some OAK
Largest Decreases in Fares:
-PNS: -$36
-MEM: -$29
-GSP: -$22
-SAT: -$22
-BHM: -$19

Unserved/Underserved Routes:
1. SAN: No need to dive into this one, but demand rose to 192 PDEW which is an all-time high for the route
2. AUS: Demand stayed flat at 155 PDEW, however, this coincided with a $16 increase in fare. Probably a route more suited for daily service, rather than 1-2x weekly service from WN/F9/G4
3. PDX: Demand stayed almost flat 100 PDEW, and had a $27 increase in fares. With avg fares at $302 each way, this would be a lucrative route for an airline to dive into.
4. SAT: This is an emerging route, PDEW grew by 13 to 93. This would be a route to start out 1-2x weekly, maybe WN/G4

Others:
BOS: PDEW obviously fell here due to WN leaving, PDEW fell by 34, while average fares rose by $33. Time may have passed for B6 to hop on the route this year. DL is increasing weekend service this summer (now 3x Sat, 4x Sun), so some of the PDEW will be recaptured by additional DL service.

Bay Area: PDEW only fell by 36 even with the loss of AS, some OAK service, and a fare increase of $41. WN's schedule extension comes in two weeks, so we will see if OAK comes back. If OAK disappears the best shot for additional Bay Area service is UA increasing to 3x daily.

MSY-93 PDEW-$203; SMF-61 PDEW-$322; BDL-56 PDEW-$286, ORF-54 PDEW-$248, RIC-43 PDEW-$263, ABQ-33 PDEW-$288, OMA-32 PDEW-$270
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:04 am

Allegiant starts PBI tomorrow
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:18 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Allegiant starts PBI tomorrow


I think this flight has the potential to do very well, the airport has really done a good job adding service.

I do think however, that they will hold off on any new route announcements until Routes Americas, which they have been talking up recently.
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:04 am

Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Allegiant starts PBI tomorrow


I think this flight has the potential to do very well, the airport has really done a good job adding service.

I do think however, that they will hold off on any new route announcements until Routes Americas, which they have been talking up recently.


Yeah, unless Allegiant does their Mexico expansion at the end of the year (which would be before Routes Americas). What is the likelyhood of getting multiple announcements at Routes Americas since it is a three day event? My guess is there will be only one announcement.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:59 pm

zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
zackary747 wrote:
Allegiant starts PBI tomorrow


I think this flight has the potential to do very well, the airport has really done a good job adding service.

I do think however, that they will hold off on any new route announcements until Routes Americas, which they have been talking up recently.


Yeah, unless Allegiant does their Mexico expansion at the end of the year (which would be before Routes Americas). What is the likelyhood of getting multiple announcements at Routes Americas since it is a three day event? My guess is there will be only one announcement.


My guess too, until I see the final schedule for the conference.

I haven't heard anything on Allegiant and Mexico though, and they didn't mention a word about Mexico in their investor day, so they are being very hush hush about it.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:10 am

Back on the Asia flight talk, AUS is claiming they expect an Asia nonstop flight to take off in 2021, meaning a likely announcement in 2020.
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news ... ional.html

Given that, I can't imagine IND is far behind AUS in terms of landing a TPAC flight, if they are at all.
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:32 am

You really think IND is on par with that of AUS?

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:48 am

stlgph wrote:
You really think IND is on par with that of AUS?

I love good comedy.


For TPAC more or less, given how aggressive I know the State Government of Indiana is....
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:50 am

I just wish IND was in Delta's "Focus City" conversation.

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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:00 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
I just wish IND was in Delta's "Focus City" conversation.

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Can't complain too much, given the CDG & MCO, and other p2p flights
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tphuang
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:05 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
I just wish IND was in Delta's "Focus City" conversation.

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I think that's all propaganda. They apparently only got 4 gates at AUS after the expansion and doesn't look like they are getting any more gates at BNA either. I don't see those "focus cities" necessarily getting more routes.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:08 am

I'd be astonished if IND gets a TPAC flight within the next 10 years. The State of Indiana can throw all the money they want at it but it's not gonna happen.....I truly enjoy reading this thread but common sense needs to accept reality. AUS will probably not get TPAC service within the next 5 years if ever!....Give me a n/s to IND/AUS and I'll be ecstatic!
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:40 am

Wacko55 wrote:
I'd be astonished if IND gets a TPAC flight within the next 10 years. The State of Indiana can throw all the money they want at it but it's not gonna happen.....I truly enjoy reading this thread but common sense needs to accept reality. AUS will probably not get TPAC service within the next 5 years if ever!....Give me a n/s to IND/AUS and I'll be ecstatic!


I wouldn’t say never, but it will likely be a while before the likes of IND, BNA, RDU, etc, get TPAC flights. The business case isn’t quite there yet for mid-sized market TPAC flights.

AUS on the other hand will likely have one within the next 5 years barring a severe economic downturn. AUS, while being a mid-sized market technically, punches way above its weight due to the tech demand, large catchment area with nearby SAT and being the capital of the worlds 10th largest economy.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:25 am

Doubtful. I think everyone needs to slow their roll on TPAC service when it comes to medium sized markets. It takes a long time to secure such a route and it won't happen within the next 5 years at the earliest for AUS. Believe me I wish it would but I'm a realist and it's not gonna happen. We can play fairy tale games and all but it aint gonna happen....Hell we haven't even hit the next recession yet...If anything we should be talking about what long haul routes get cut from medium sized markets in the near future....It's gonna happen whether we aviation enthusiasts like it or not....sorry to be a debbie downer....
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:35 am

Wacko55 wrote:
Doubtful. I think everyone needs to slow their roll on TPAC service when it comes to medium sized markets. It takes a long time to secure such a route and it won't happen within the next 5 years at the earliest for AUS. Believe me I wish it would but I'm a realist and it's not gonna happen. We can play fairy tale games and all but it aint gonna happen....Hell we haven't even hit the next recession yet...If anything we should be talking about what long haul routes get cut from medium sized markets in the near future....It's gonna happen whether we aviation enthusiasts like it or not....sorry to be a debbie downer....


Ok, say whatever you want....

I think we’ll see very little cut because most of the aforementioned markets have 1-2 TATL flights at the most.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:45 am

Currently my home airport, AUS, only has LHR daily and FRA 5x weekly and LGW seasonally. Not that great. Next year we get AMS 3x weekly and CDG seasonally. It's okay but not that great. It's hard to imagine AUS getting TPAC service with such limited international long-haul service. Hope I'm wrong but the limited service is not all that encouraging for future TPAC service IMO.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:35 am

Only here could someone post service to Heathrow, Gatwick, DeGaulle, Frankfurt, and Schiphol from an airport of said size and scale when any other of that size is begging for anything....."isnt that great."

Man. Oh man.
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Wacko55
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:01 am

Just not that impressed with the service currently available at AUS. It's a small airport IMO. Hopefully the new director will steer the airport in the right direction for the future.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:03 am

Enough about AUS. Love IND and the city. Go Colts.
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:57 am

Wacko55 wrote:
Doubtful. I think everyone needs to slow their roll on TPAC service when it comes to medium sized markets. It takes a long time to secure such a route and it won't happen within the next 5 years at the earliest for AUS. Believe me I wish it would but I'm a realist and it's not gonna happen. We can play fairy tale games and all but it aint gonna happen....Hell we haven't even hit the next recession yet...If anything we should be talking about what long haul routes get cut from medium sized markets in the near future....It's gonna happen whether we aviation enthusiasts like it or not....sorry to be a debbie downer....


Everyone said the same thing about TATL service 5 years ago. The next 5-10 years from now can be extremely different as these cities continue to grow and as airplane technology continues to innovate. Being pessimistic is not being a realist.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:47 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
I'd be astonished if IND gets a TPAC flight within the next 10 years. The State of Indiana can throw all the money they want at it but it's not gonna happen.....I truly enjoy reading this thread but common sense needs to accept reality. AUS will probably not get TPAC service within the next 5 years if ever!....Give me a n/s to IND/AUS and I'll be ecstatic!


10 years is a verrrry long time, I think we'll definitely see TPAC flights from midsized markets before 2025.

AUS, IND, BNA, and e.t.c rank very high in terms of largest unserved asia markets, and this also isn't accounting for IND, BNA, and AUS bleed to ORD, ATL, and IAH.

FWIW, I'm hearing the same rhetoric from the airports and local communities as the 1-2 years before these midsized airports landed TATL flights. I think Corporate demand is there (or close to it), it is a matter of getting the right service for the market size.

Btw, let's make that AUS-IND n/s happen daily!
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BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
I'd be astonished if IND gets a TPAC flight within the next 10 years. The State of Indiana can throw all the money they want at it but it's not gonna happen.....I truly enjoy reading this thread but common sense needs to accept reality. AUS will probably not get TPAC service within the next 5 years if ever!....Give me a n/s to IND/AUS and I'll be ecstatic!


10 years is a verrrry long time, I think we'll definitely see TPAC flights from midsized markets before 2025.

AUS, IND, BNA, and e.t.c rank very high in terms of largest unserved asia markets, and this also isn't accounting for IND, BNA, and AUS bleed to ORD, ATL, and IAH.

FWIW, I'm hearing the same rhetoric from the airports and local communities as the 1-2 years before these midsized airports landed TATL flights. I think Corporate demand is there (or close to it), it is a matter of getting the right service for the market size.

Btw, let's make that AUS-IND n/s happen daily!


We do have to keep in mind Europe is easier to operate from these markets than Asia, as there is more demand. I do think mid-sized market TPAC will happen, but outside of AUS, I don’t think the business case is there quite yet.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:04 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
I'd be astonished if IND gets a TPAC flight within the next 10 years. The State of Indiana can throw all the money they want at it but it's not gonna happen.....I truly enjoy reading this thread but common sense needs to accept reality. AUS will probably not get TPAC service within the next 5 years if ever!....Give me a n/s to IND/AUS and I'll be ecstatic!


10 years is a verrrry long time, I think we'll definitely see TPAC flights from midsized markets before 2025.

AUS, IND, BNA, and e.t.c rank very high in terms of largest unserved asia markets, and this also isn't accounting for IND, BNA, and AUS bleed to ORD, ATL, and IAH.

FWIW, I'm hearing the same rhetoric from the airports and local communities as the 1-2 years before these midsized airports landed TATL flights. I think Corporate demand is there (or close to it), it is a matter of getting the right service for the market size.

Btw, let's make that AUS-IND n/s happen daily!


We do have to keep in mind Europe is easier to operate from these markets than Asia, as there is more demand. I do think mid-sized market TPAC will happen, but outside of AUS, I don’t think the business case is there quite yet.


Yes Europe is easier, but that doesn't change whether airport authorities believe they are close to a nonstop flight announcement

On the Austin part, maybe I'm being dense, but Austin seems to lean more towards Europe than Asia compared to the BNA & IND areas with the exception of the large Samsung operation. Furthermore, the AUS-Asia market hasn't been growing as much as you might think: https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news ... s_headline
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Cubsrule
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

10 years is a verrrry long time, I think we'll definitely see TPAC flights from midsized markets before 2025.

AUS, IND, BNA, and e.t.c rank very high in terms of largest unserved asia markets, and this also isn't accounting for IND, BNA, and AUS bleed to ORD, ATL, and IAH.

FWIW, I'm hearing the same rhetoric from the airports and local communities as the 1-2 years before these midsized airports landed TATL flights. I think Corporate demand is there (or close to it), it is a matter of getting the right service for the market size.

Btw, let's make that AUS-IND n/s happen daily!


We do have to keep in mind Europe is easier to operate from these markets than Asia, as there is more demand. I do think mid-sized market TPAC will happen, but outside of AUS, I don’t think the business case is there quite yet.


Yes Europe is easier, but that doesn't change whether airport authorities believe they are close to a nonstop flight announcement

On the Austin part, maybe I'm being dense, but Austin seems to lean more towards Europe than Asia compared to the BNA & IND areas with the exception of the large Samsung operation. Furthermore, the AUS-Asia market hasn't been growing as much as you might think: https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news ... s_headline


Austin has an odd Asia demand pattern, with relatively more demand to Taiwan and Korea and relatively less to Japan and mainland China. Given that Japan has the most favorable geography and the longest track record of supporting service to secondary US cities and mainland China is the government handing out subsidies like candy, that probably doesn’t bode well for TPAC at AUS.
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BNAMealer
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

10 years is a verrrry long time, I think we'll definitely see TPAC flights from midsized markets before 2025.

AUS, IND, BNA, and e.t.c rank very high in terms of largest unserved asia markets, and this also isn't accounting for IND, BNA, and AUS bleed to ORD, ATL, and IAH.

FWIW, I'm hearing the same rhetoric from the airports and local communities as the 1-2 years before these midsized airports landed TATL flights. I think Corporate demand is there (or close to it), it is a matter of getting the right service for the market size.

Btw, let's make that AUS-IND n/s happen daily!


We do have to keep in mind Europe is easier to operate from these markets than Asia, as there is more demand. I do think mid-sized market TPAC will happen, but outside of AUS, I don’t think the business case is there quite yet.


Yes Europe is easier, but that doesn't change whether airport authorities believe they are close to a nonstop flight announcement

On the Austin part, maybe I'm being dense, but Austin seems to lean more towards Europe than Asia compared to the BNA & IND areas with the exception of the large Samsung operation. Furthermore, the AUS-Asia market hasn't been growing as much as you might think: https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news ... s_headline


The article you cited specifically stated 2021 is a good bet for AUS TPAC service, plus, the top unserved long haul destinations are Tokyo and Seoul, even ahead of Paris. Austin’s large “Silicon Valley-esqe” tech presence and larger catchment area make it ripe for an Asian nonstop.

Anyway, I can’t speak for IND, but in BNA’s case, I don’t think we are quite there yet. Outside of Bridgestone and Nissan, what business demand is there? Plus, my indication from the latest master plan meetings seemed to be the runway extension needed to do Asia nonstops is at least 5 years away, further complicating the process.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:01 pm

DL is upping seat capacity by over 12 percent during the weekdays in April, and increasing flights on Saturday & Sunday by 21% and 15% respectively

UA is adding an extra flight to EWR in May, so now they will be up to 8 daily to EWR
UA IND-DEN is reduced to 2x daily in March, and supplemented by increased capacity to SFO (A319/B738). After Mid-February, Mainline isn't scheduled to return to DEN until June

Looks like UA's priorities from IND are EWR, ORD, and SFO, and frequency over guage.

G4 capacity is up 20-25% in Q1 2020, F9 also appears to be up 10%, Weekend flights to the west coast look solid as well next March, IND-DEN peaks at 7 flights, IND-LAS/PHX peak at 6 flights, IND-LAX gets up to 5 flights, IND-SFO/SEA peak at 2 flights (SFO 2x B738), and IND-LAX gets up to 5 flights.

It appears that even with some uncertainty with WN and the MAX, IND looks like it will be off to a strong 2020.
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ThaneC
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:14 pm

With Chicago ORD only 177 miles away, I don’t see how a mid-size airport like IND could ever think that a nonstop flight to Asia was realistic and viable. The same thing applies to so many destinations that are already very well-served via Chicago.

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