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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 2:03 pm
by ibthebigd
Even a E175 to SLC for a 2nd flight be nice

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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:31 pm
by Indy
Think there will ever be mainline between IND and RDU? With Infosys building the campus in IND and there already being a big office in RDU (and growing), there could be decent travel for the company between the two cities. I know I've met a number of people at work who have been to the Indy Infosys office.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:07 pm
by Midwestindy
Indy wrote:
Think there will ever be mainline between IND and RDU? With Infosys building the campus in IND and there already being a big office in RDU (and growing), there could be decent travel for the company between the two cities. I know I've met a number of people at work who have been to the Indy Infosys office.


I wish! What needs to happen first is that the first flight of the day on IND-RDU needs to not be at 11:30am and on a CRJ. Once it is changed back to a 6-8am IND-RDU CR7/9, DL would likely add more midday frequencies if demand warranted it, but even with Infosys strong on both ends, they won't grow IND-RDU too much with ATL being so close.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:40 pm
by Midwestindy
airboss787 wrote:
With VX/AS gone on the IND-SFO route and WN significantly downsizing IND-OAK, I can see there being demand for 2x daily year-round UA to SFO. Was on UA500 couple weeks ago and it was a completely full flight not knowing yield. Unless UA is aiming for a premium by having just 1x daily and charging more, I can see 2x daily filling up on a regular basis.


And so it begins....

UA IND-SFO AUG 1.7>1.0[1.8]

I think we found the answer, with WN gone (for now) UA knows what to do. Shame, it looks like IND is going back to square 1 in terms of service to the Bay. September/October still show 2x daily, but I'm not convinced that will stay. UA is quite the interesting airline when it comes to IND.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:04 pm
by pmanni1
Midwestindy wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
With VX/AS gone on the IND-SFO route and WN significantly downsizing IND-OAK, I can see there being demand for 2x daily year-round UA to SFO. Was on UA500 couple weeks ago and it was a completely full flight not knowing yield. Unless UA is aiming for a premium by having just 1x daily and charging more, I can see 2x daily filling up on a regular basis.


And so it begins....

UA IND-SFO AUG 1.7>1.0[1.8]

I think we found the answer, with WN gone (for now) UA knows what to do. Shame, it looks like IND is going back to square 1 in terms of service to the Bay. September/October still show 2x daily, but I'm not convinced that will stay. UA is quite the interesting airline when it comes to IND.

Does IND have service to OAK or SJC? I don't know why so many markets struggle with service to the Bay area. It's got some of the highest O&D of anywhere not to mention the connections to Hawaii and Asia.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:51 pm
by CRJ200flyer
I recently made an infographic showcasing FedEx’s facilities growth at IND. Impressive changes!

Image

For more see: https://www.facebook.com/CommercialAviationInfographics

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:47 pm
by Midwestindy
pmanni1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
With VX/AS gone on the IND-SFO route and WN significantly downsizing IND-OAK, I can see there being demand for 2x daily year-round UA to SFO. Was on UA500 couple weeks ago and it was a completely full flight not knowing yield. Unless UA is aiming for a premium by having just 1x daily and charging more, I can see 2x daily filling up on a regular basis.


And so it begins....

UA IND-SFO AUG 1.7>1.0[1.8]

I think we found the answer, with WN gone (for now) UA knows what to do. Shame, it looks like IND is going back to square 1 in terms of service to the Bay. September/October still show 2x daily, but I'm not convinced that will stay. UA is quite the interesting airline when it comes to IND.

Does IND have service to OAK or SJC? I don't know why so many markets struggle with service to the Bay area. It's got some of the highest O&D of anywhere not to mention the connections to Hawaii and Asia.


Yes....and no, technically WN serves IND-OAK, but it is gone from the schedules because of the MAX issues.

I don't think it as much about struggling, it is more about there being so many connecting options in between to get to the Bay Area. Demand is there to make it work, yields are there to make it work, but carriers aren't going to cannibalize their own traffic if they don't need to. Hence why UA didn't fully increase IND-SFO to 2x daily until AS entered the market.

CRJ200flyer wrote:
I recently made an infographic showcasing FedEx’s facilities growth at IND. Impressive changes!

Image

For more see: https://www.facebook.com/CommercialAviationInfographics


I like the page, keep it up

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:21 am
by Indy
Midwestindy wrote:
I wish! What needs to happen first is that the first flight of the day on IND-RDU needs to not be at 11:30am and on a CRJ. Once it is changed back to a 6-8am IND-RDU CR7/9, DL would likely add more midday frequencies if demand warranted it, but even with Infosys strong on both ends, they won't grow IND-RDU too much with ATL being so close.


Honestly, nobody flying between IND and RDU for Infosys wants to stop in ATL. It is out of the way and a big waste of time. IND-RDU is 489 miles. IND-ATL-RDU is 788 miles (over 60% more) plus a 1+ hour layover. No thanks to ATL. Just get me a good nonstop flight in the morning and evening and offer first class seats. Infosys won't pay for domestic first class travel but you can always upgrade.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:58 pm
by Midwestindy
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0701154457
April pax were slightly down from IND -1.4%, YOY up 1.2%
Cargo up 7.0%, due to FX increase

AS (-42.8%)-Loss of SFO
AC (+1.0%)
G4 (+4.7%)
AA (-5.2%)-Not sure on that one
DL (+10.9%)
F9 (-23.7%)- Loss of PHL/AUS? I think....
WN (-4.6%)- Loss of EWR, OAK, and other MAX cuts
UA (-11.8%)- Loss of 1xSFO, drop in mainline


11 straight months of double digit growth from DL
Apr +10.9%
Mar +14.6%
Feb +10.7%
Jan +13.3%
DEC +11.5%
NOV +15.2%
OCT +11.3%
SEP +14.8%
AUG +19.5%
JUL +14.9%
JUN +13.1%

Too bad May '18 was 6% growth or it would be 13 straight months of double digit growth

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:39 pm
by Midwestindy
https://www.ibj.com/articles/74438-indi ... re-tourism
https://calendar.in.gov/site/lg/event/l ... fZ-7cljeMQ

"Indiana officials plan Mexico trip to tout agriculture, tourism"

"In Mexico City, the tourism delegation will be working to develop relationships with key travel and tourism stakeholders, while showcasing the state’s tourism assets and promoting travel to Indiana."

:stirthepot:

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:33 am
by FlyingElvii
LH 432 747-800 just weather diverted into Indy from ORD...
AA41 787-800 from BCN about to touch down

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:57 am
by Jake1993P
Why does DL500 seem to be delayed more days than not?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:52 am
by zackary747
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... -LvfBZQkeU

Looks like OAK-IND wasn't the only one temp. suspended. Southwest put a big dent into OAK due to the MAX issues.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:48 am
by Midwestindy
FlyingElvii wrote:
LH 432 747-800 just weather diverted into Indy from ORD...
AA41 787-800 from BCN about to touch down


Great day for diverts :o

zackary747 wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest-airlines-suspends-13-routes-because-of-boeing-737-max-grounding/?utm_content=CFE559C4-9D12-11E9-9D7F-DBD2923C408C&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3kMRmtjdSlM_XoDpDrR-kjYYYx8uH7xRx32hwQwcLdNkylC-LvfBZQkeU

Looks like OAK-IND wasn't the only one temp. suspended. Southwest put a big dent into OAK due to the MAX issues.


Yeah, but it would be one thing if it looked like a temporary suspension, but other routes listed appear bookable after October...IND-OAK does not(with the exception of Thanksgiving).

Even worse, it appears IND-MDW/LAX/1xBWI are zero'd out in October in addition to OAK, if true that would not be ideal at all, even if temporary. October is a pretty large travel month for IND.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:01 pm
by zackary747
Midwestindy wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LH 432 747-800 just weather diverted into Indy from ORD...
AA41 787-800 from BCN about to touch down


Great day for diverts :o

zackary747 wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest-airlines-suspends-13-routes-because-of-boeing-737-max-grounding/?utm_content=CFE559C4-9D12-11E9-9D7F-DBD2923C408C&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3kMRmtjdSlM_XoDpDrR-kjYYYx8uH7xRx32hwQwcLdNkylC-LvfBZQkeU

Looks like OAK-IND wasn't the only one temp. suspended. Southwest put a big dent into OAK due to the MAX issues.


Yeah, but it would be one thing if it looked like a temporary suspension, but other routes listed appear bookable after October...IND-OAK does not(with the exception of Thanksgiving).

Even worse, it appears IND-MDW/LAX/1xBWI are zero'd out in October in addition to OAK, if true that would not be ideal at all, even if temporary. October is a pretty large travel month for IND.


I am still convinced that OAK will come back as a spring/summer seasonal bare minimum once WN gets their crap together. The route performed very well until winter time hit. And ouch for October. I'm flying Southwest in September to LAX via PHX (and then off to LAS later that night) and I hope their network isn't a complete mess that day.

Also, the fact that IND-OAK is even bookable on the Thanksgiving window is a good sign in my opinion. Someone could argue that if it was completely gone the Thanksgiving window wouldn't exist and nothing would be bookable. Time will tell of course.

EDIT: Do a dummy booking in something around December 18. IND-OAK is listed. It appears that WN is taking it in and out of the schedule depending on aircraft availability (which would make sense considering the MAX issues and they had other issues earlier this year as well when it came to maintenance). It appears to be bookable between Dec 18-20. This flight is all over the place lol.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:32 am
by Midwestindy
zackary747 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
LH 432 747-800 just weather diverted into Indy from ORD...
AA41 787-800 from BCN about to touch down


Great day for diverts :o

zackary747 wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest-airlines-suspends-13-routes-because-of-boeing-737-max-grounding/?utm_content=CFE559C4-9D12-11E9-9D7F-DBD2923C408C&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3kMRmtjdSlM_XoDpDrR-kjYYYx8uH7xRx32hwQwcLdNkylC-LvfBZQkeU

Looks like OAK-IND wasn't the only one temp. suspended. Southwest put a big dent into OAK due to the MAX issues.


Yeah, but it would be one thing if it looked like a temporary suspension, but other routes listed appear bookable after October...IND-OAK does not(with the exception of Thanksgiving).

Even worse, it appears IND-MDW/LAX/1xBWI are zero'd out in October in addition to OAK, if true that would not be ideal at all, even if temporary. October is a pretty large travel month for IND.


I am still convinced that OAK will come back as a spring/summer seasonal bare minimum once WN gets their crap together. The route performed very well until winter time hit. And ouch for October. I'm flying Southwest in September to LAX via PHX (and then off to LAS later that night) and I hope their network isn't a complete mess that day.

Also, the fact that IND-OAK is even bookable on the Thanksgiving window is a good sign in my opinion. Someone could argue that if it was completely gone the Thanksgiving window wouldn't exist and nothing would be bookable. Time will tell of course.

EDIT: Do a dummy booking in something around December 18. IND-OAK is listed. It appears that WN is taking it in and out of the schedule depending on aircraft availability (which would make sense considering the MAX issues and they had other issues earlier this year as well when it came to maintenance). It appears to be bookable between Dec 18-20. This flight is all over the place lol.


WN is probably just tentatively planning to run it during peak times (Thanksgiving/Christmas), unless MAX issues are extended.

I mentioned fare increases were likely going to be a problem this summer, but it looks like the increases were realized before the MAX issues even hit:
Here are nonstop fares in Q1 2019, compared to Q1 2018 for the US3:
Image

The question is now, how high will they get? The fact that only 4 routes decreased in Avg fares is sad. Margin increases in fares are good and to be expected, but once you start seeing drastic increases in fares in the slow season you can tell airlines aren't matching demand.

$343 on DL IND-RSW is insane for a leisure route

Trend should continue, considering UA/WN/AA have been fairly stagnant or decreased capacity in the market.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:25 am
by fedex1
I would love to see KLM AMS-IND.... I know it would never happen! I have flown KLM had a terrific experience!

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:01 am
by kindeham
fedex1 wrote:
I would love to see KLM AMS-IND.... I know it would never happen! I have flown KLM had a terrific experience!


Tell me about it! Would make my life easier - but like you say, I doubt it will ever happen. Only real potential I see for that is some sort of seasonal service at most.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:26 pm
by Midwestindy
Very interesting development for the December schedule from IND, it appears that DL is making IND-RDU daily for the holiday season. But for the 19th and 20th of December the route is 3x daily. It looks like IND and CVG are the only mid-sized cities with n/s service to RDU during Christmas break(other than the leisure routes obviously).

Appears to be in the evening, so it may be for connecting pax through IND-RDU-CDG or RDU-IND-CDG

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:45 am
by fedex1
I truly can’t see why a 3x weekly during summer couldn’t work well with DL CDG service! But what the heck do I know!!! NOTHING about flight planning, or yields!!!! I am just speaking out loud!

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:03 am
by kindeham
fedex1 wrote:
I truly can’t see why a 3x weekly during summer couldn’t work well with DL CDG service! But what the heck do I know!!! NOTHING about flight planning, or yields!!!! I am just speaking out loud!


I am confused what you are talking about? IND-CDG is daily during the summer and is often full. Or could you possibly be talking about adding AMS 3x weekly to suppliment CDG?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:51 pm
by fedex1
Adding AMS to supplement daily to CDG...

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:58 pm
by indygs
Not sure how accurate this is now > 1 year later, but at the launch of IND-CDG the VP of route planning for DL mentioned the hang-up at AMS are slots. If that's the case, I think it would be tough to envision how DL would get hold of enough slots to cycle a 3X weekly flight in and out of AMS to handle pax who can largely be accommodated (sans some African destinations) via service from CDG. Would be great to see, for sure, but not sure the economics of it would really work out.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:07 pm
by fedex1
Is KLM slot restricted as well? Or just a Delta thing? I don’t know how slots work.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:04 am
by Indy
I didn't realize AMS was slot restricted.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:10 am
by indygs
Here's some info about the slot restrictions in place at AMS: https://slotcoordination.nl/slot-monitoring/.

Much of it I believe has to do with a covenant also reached with area residents that limits night time movements and total movements for the year. I believe this is due to be re-negotiated soon.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:57 am
by kindeham
AMS is currently considering a plan to build more runways (or even move the antire airport) in the North Sea. There would be a rail link to the main terminal. This would allow for more flights without disturbing the neighbors, but obviously this is a very long term plan. On the short term there is a plan to move some flights to nearby Lelystad airport, however that keeps being delayed. I work directly next to Schiphol (get an amazing view of departures when the wind is out of the south!) Schiphol could probably handle quite a bit more traffic based on my personal observations - however the question would be at what expense? Schiphol seems to rarely have backups like you may see at LaGuardia, for instance, so seems that at the moment the traffic is very well managed.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:36 pm
by ibthebigd
I think a summer seasonal flight from Aer Lingus would be awesome on a A321XLR

I don't know if that would ever happen.

I don't think Aer Lingus has a close relationship with AA to tap those FF from AA

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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:12 pm
by Midwestindy
ibthebigd wrote:
I think a summer seasonal flight from Aer Lingus would be awesome on a A321XLR

I don't know if that would ever happen.

I don't think Aer Lingus has a close relationship with AA to tap those FF from AA

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I'd hope LHR would be next

First January 2019 numbers came in about CDG
January International
DL CDG-IND-72.4%; IND-CDG-56.7%
DL CUN-IND-82.8%; IND-CUN-82.5%

WN CUN-IND-78.5%; IND-CUN-76.5%

AC YYZ-IND-66.7%; IND-YYZ-54.7%

APRIL Domestic
AS SEA-IND-87.2%; IND-SEA-80.0%

AA LAX-IND-94.1%; IND-LAX-91.7%
AA MIA-IND-90.0%; IND-MIA-78.8%
AA PHX-IND-84.3%; IND-PHX-74.2%
AA DFW-IND-85.7%; IND-DFW-80.6%
AA DCA-IND-83.6%; IND-DCA-79.4%
AA JFK-IND-82.5%; IND-JFK-70.5%
AA CLT-IND-82.3%; IND-CLT-74.2%
AA PHL-IND-73.5%; IND-PHL-69.3%
AA ORD-IND-73.2%; IND-ORD-57.6%

G4 PIE-IND-95.4%; IND-PIE-80.2%
G4 FLL-IND-94.5%; IND-FLL-79.6%
G4 PGD-IND-91.3%; IND-PGD-68.7%
G4 LAS-IND-91.2%; IND-LAS-87.4%
G4 SRQ-IND-88.4%; IND-SRQ-83.2%
G4 SFB-IND-88.0%; IND-SFB-74.3%
G4 AUS-IND-81.2%; IND-AUS-71.3%
G4 SAV-IND-77.9%; IND-SAV-67.5%
G4 MSY-IND-76.2%; IND-MSY-68.4%
G4 CHS-IND-74.8%; IND-CHS-66.7%

DL RDU-IND-89.9%; IND-RDU-87.8%
DL LAX-IND-89.0%; IND-LAX-78.1%
DL ATL-IND-88.2%; IND-ATL-81.1%
DL MSP-IND-87.5%; IND-MSP-85.6%
DL SEA-IND-84.2%; IND-SEA-67.9%
DL BOS-IND-79.7%; IND-BOS-73.8%
DL JFK-IND-79.3%; IND-JFK-61.4%
DL DTW-IND-74.6%; IND-DTW-70.9%
DL MCO-IND-66.7%; IND-MCO-63.2%

F9 DEN-IND-92.3%; IND-DEN-92.6%
F9 LAS-IND-91.4%; IND-LAS-86.2%
F9 RSW-IND-89.5%; IND-RSW-62.6%
F9 MCO-IND-86.8%; IND-MCO-74.6%

NK LAS-IND-77.6%; IND-LAS-62.3%
NK MCO-IND-82.4%; IND-MCO-65.9%

WN LAX-IND-96.9%; IND-LAX-86.3%
WN FLL-IND-96.7%; IND-FLL-74.3%
WN AUS-IND-96.7%; IND-AUS-78.8%
WN MSY-IND-94.4%; IND-MSY-35.4%
WN RSW-IND-94.2%; IND-RSW-68.4%
WN LAS-IND-91.0%; IND-LAS-86.3%
WN DAL-IND-90.8%; IND-DAL-84.9%
WN PHX-IND-87.4%; IND-PHX-77.2%
WN BWI-IND-87.3%; IND-BWI-81.1%
WN OAK-IND-87.0%; IND-OAK-75.1%
WN DEN-IND-87.0%; IND-DEN-80.1%
WN TPA-IND-85.6%; IND-TPA-68.9%
WN MCO-IND-83.5%; IND-MCO-71.0%
WN ATL-IND-82.4%; IND-ATL-78.0%
WN HOU-IND-82.1%; IND-HOU-70.1%
WN MDW-IND-74.4%; IND-MDW-69.8%
WN MCI-IND-65.5%; IND-MCI-59.6%
WN BOS-IND-62.1%; IND-BOS-66.7%

UA IAH-IND-87.8%; IND-IAH-82.9%
UA DEN-IND-87.5%; IND-DEN-83.1%
UA EWR-IND-86.7%; IND-EWR-80.4%
UA IAD-IND-84.3%; IND-IAD-81.6%
UA SFO-IND-83.8%; IND-SFO-70.8%

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:13 pm
by indygs
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:45 pm
by Midwestindy
indygs wrote:
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.


To be honest, I actually think that wasn't as bad as I expected, January outbound across the board was rough for most of the newer routes: PIT-KEF-55.0%, STL-KEF-43.9%, MSY-LHR-61.5%(not really "new"), BNA-LHR-58.4%, e.t.c, so 56.7% is about expected for January on a brand new route.

And if you compare the inbound of 72.4%, it also falls along the same lines as LHR-MSY-75.2% and LHR-BNA-65.7%, and even some hub-hub routes like AMS-DTW-67.4%

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:24 pm
by kindeham
So a strange insight I may have about Spirit in Indy. Back in September of last year Spirit hired someone I used to know as their director of route planning...he was a HUGE ATA fanboy. I don't have contact with him any longer - but Spirit adding Indy is probably not a chance based on what I know about him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see Spirit add some more leisure routes that ATA used to fly.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:53 am
by Jshank83
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.


To be honest, I actually think that wasn't as bad as I expected, January outbound across the board was rough for most of the newer routes: PIT-KEF-55.0%, STL-KEF-43.9%, MSY-LHR-61.5%(not really "new"), BNA-LHR-58.4%, e.t.c, so 56.7% is about expected for January on a brand new route.

And if you compare the inbound of 72.4%, it also falls along the same lines as LHR-MSY-75.2% and LHR-BNA-65.7%, and even some hub-hub routes like AMS-DTW-67.4%


Weren’t both the KEF routes partial months because they had been cut. Not sure I’d factor those in. But your point stands on the other ones.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:31 am
by indygs
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.


To be honest, I actually think that wasn't as bad as I expected, January outbound across the board was rough for most of the newer routes: PIT-KEF-55.0%, STL-KEF-43.9%, MSY-LHR-61.5%(not really "new"), BNA-LHR-58.4%, e.t.c, so 56.7% is about expected for January on a brand new route.

And if you compare the inbound of 72.4%, it also falls along the same lines as LHR-MSY-75.2% and LHR-BNA-65.7%, and even some hub-hub routes like AMS-DTW-67.4%


That's good perspective. Especially the MSY and BNA routes. Do those run 3x a week, too? AMS-DTW is a bit surprising given its a hub-hub route for DL and I'm on that one often--I'd love a few of my flights to come back that empty.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:04 pm
by Midwestindy
Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.


To be honest, I actually think that wasn't as bad as I expected, January outbound across the board was rough for most of the newer routes: PIT-KEF-55.0%, STL-KEF-43.9%, MSY-LHR-61.5%(not really "new"), BNA-LHR-58.4%, e.t.c, so 56.7% is about expected for January on a brand new route.

And if you compare the inbound of 72.4%, it also falls along the same lines as LHR-MSY-75.2% and LHR-BNA-65.7%, and even some hub-hub routes like AMS-DTW-67.4%


Weren’t both the KEF routes partial months because they had been cut. Not sure I’d factor those in. But your point stands on the other ones.


Tried to get a wider data range, as there weren't that many new mid-sized routes operating in January.

kindeham wrote:
So a strange insight I may have about Spirit in Indy. Back in September of last year Spirit hired someone I used to know as their director of route planning...he was a HUGE ATA fanboy. I don't have contact with him any longer - but Spirit adding Indy is probably not a chance based on what I know about him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see Spirit add some more leisure routes that ATA used to fly.


Yeah, he's been good to Indy so far: RSW, MCO, TPA, LAS, and MYR have filled in. There isn't much room for them to expand though, with G4/F9/WN/DL/AA serving Florida quite well. Best shot for them is to try BWI, MSY, FLL, and maybe even BOS or EWR.

Also G4 just extended their schedule through May
G4 next Spring Break (weekly frequencies)
2017-2018-2019
IND-MSY 3x-2x-2x
IND-LAS 2x-2x-2x
IND-FLL 7x-7x-9x
IND-SFB 8x-9x-9x
IND-JAX 3x-3x-2x
IND-PGD 8x-9x-10x
IND-PIE 8x-9x-9x
IND-AUS 2x-2x-2x
IND-AZA 2x-0x-0x
IND-SAV 2x-3x-2x
IND-SRQ 0x-2x-5x
IND-CHS 0x-2x-2x

Still waiting on AZA to come back, but everything seems about status quo with the exception of SRQ.

Hopefully G4 adds IND-Mexico/Caribbean next year, as it appears Vacation Express is gone, and WN has cut back on IND-CUN.

indygs wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Dang, 56.7% for IND-CDG. I get that its shoulder season, but that flight was operating 3X week. I suppose the saving grace is the return %age, which I assume was largely dictated by those returning from holidays in Europe.


To be honest, I actually think that wasn't as bad as I expected, January outbound across the board was rough for most of the newer routes: PIT-KEF-55.0%, STL-KEF-43.9%, MSY-LHR-61.5%(not really "new"), BNA-LHR-58.4%, e.t.c, so 56.7% is about expected for January on a brand new route.

And if you compare the inbound of 72.4%, it also falls along the same lines as LHR-MSY-75.2% and LHR-BNA-65.7%, and even some hub-hub routes like AMS-DTW-67.4%


That's good perspective. Especially the MSY and BNA routes. Do those run 3x a week, too? AMS-DTW is a bit surprising given its a hub-hub route for DL and I'm on that one often--I'd love a few of my flights to come back that empty.


I believe MSY/BNA-LHR were 4x weekly, I think AMS-DTW was low because of the larger A350 running the route.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:53 pm
by ibthebigd
It sucks Allegiant hasn't grown more from IND.

You would think they could run 5X weekly atleast to LAS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:54 pm
by NolaMD88fan
Midwestindy wrote:
I believe MSY/BNA-LHR were 4x weekly, I think AMS-DTW was low because of the larger A350 running the route.


MSY is 5x weekly year round.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:11 am
by Midwestindy
ibthebigd wrote:
It sucks Allegiant hasn't grown more from IND.

You would think they could run 5X weekly atleast to LAS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


It's about aircraft time, they hardly run LAS-East of the Mississippi more than 3-4x weekly.

G4's staffing model makes it hard to run Transcontinental flights at high frequency. Plus, if they run an IND-LAS flight that means that aircraft can only operate 1 other r/t for the day. Whereas if they were to run IND-PIE, they could also run IND-CHS r/t plus IND-SRQ r/t in the same day.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:19 am
by SumChristianus
Midwestindy wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
It sucks Allegiant hasn't grown more from IND.

You would think they could run 5X weekly atleast to LAS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


It's about aircraft time, they hardly run LAS-East of the Mississippi more than 3-4x weekly.

G4's staffing model makes it hard to run Transcontinental flights at high frequency. Plus, if they run an IND-LAS flight that means that aircraft can only operate 1 other r/t for the day. Whereas if they were to run IND-PIE, they could also run IND-CHS r/t plus IND-SRQ r/t in the same day.


They just started red-eyes though, right - opportunity?
Midwestindy wrote:
Hopefully G4 adds IND-Mexico/Caribbean next year

Their first quarter conference call mentioned IND/CVG as the types of cities from which they'd launch international
With WN and Vacation Express off the route and IND-CUN likely again to be one of DL's top CUN performers, seems more and more likely.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:01 am
by Midwestindy
SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
It sucks Allegiant hasn't grown more from IND.

You would think they could run 5X weekly atleast to LAS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


It's about aircraft time, they hardly run LAS-East of the Mississippi more than 3-4x weekly.

G4's staffing model makes it hard to run Transcontinental flights at high frequency. Plus, if they run an IND-LAS flight that means that aircraft can only operate 1 other r/t for the day. Whereas if they were to run IND-PIE, they could also run IND-CHS r/t plus IND-SRQ r/t in the same day.


They just started red-eyes though, right - opportunity?
Midwestindy wrote:
Hopefully G4 adds IND-Mexico/Caribbean next year

Their first quarter conference call mentioned IND/CVG as the types of cities from which they'd launch international
With WN and Vacation Express off the route and IND-CUN likely again to be one of DL's top CUN performers, seems more and more likely.


Red Eyes are still relatively uncommon for G4 (I think they only operate a handful of red eye flights weekly), but it may be an opportunity, however G4's staffing and crew base policies make it hard to tell how it would work at a high frequency.

Yeah DL has already reacted to WN/Vacation Express being gone, nonstop IND-CUN fares for Christmas break are $1.3k one-way. Leaving Dec 21st and returning Jan 4th will run you $2k, which is absurd.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:14 am
by Midwestindy
Southwest update for October:

IND-LAX gone for October
IND-MDW moved to 1x weekly Sat (1x daily cancelled, 3x daily Sun cancelled)
IND-HOU 1x downguage B738-->B737
IND-OAK unsurprisingly gone
IND-LAS down to 2x daily, 1x daily on Sat

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:40 pm
by Jshank83
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest update for October:

IND-LAX gone for October
IND-MDW moved to 1x weekly Sat (1x daily cancelled, 3x daily Sun cancelled)
IND-HOU 1x downguage B738-->B737
IND-OAK unsurprisingly gone
IND-LAS down to 2x daily, 1x daily on Sat


Did they just push back the max again or is this the original release?

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:16 pm
by Runway28L
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest update for October:

IND-LAX gone for October
IND-MDW moved to 1x weekly Sat (1x daily cancelled, 3x daily Sun cancelled)
IND-HOU 1x downguage B738-->B737
IND-OAK unsurprisingly gone
IND-LAS down to 2x daily, 1x daily on Sat

At first, I thought WN buying used B738s to cover for the MAX would be a waste of money. But after seeing what UA is doing by proactively acquiring 19 B73Gs, and also there being no timetable of the MAX returning to service, WN needs to stop sitting on their hands and do something. This inconveniencing of passengers can only be manageable for so long.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:22 pm
by Midwestindy
Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest update for October:

IND-LAX gone for October
IND-MDW moved to 1x weekly Sat (1x daily cancelled, 3x daily Sun cancelled)
IND-HOU 1x downguage B738-->B737
IND-OAK unsurprisingly gone
IND-LAS down to 2x daily, 1x daily on Sat


Did they just push back the max again or is this the original release?


Yep pushed MAX back to early November, probably pushed further soon as well

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:25 pm
by Midwestindy
Runway28L wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Southwest update for October:

IND-LAX gone for October
IND-MDW moved to 1x weekly Sat (1x daily cancelled, 3x daily Sun cancelled)
IND-HOU 1x downguage B738-->B737
IND-OAK unsurprisingly gone
IND-LAS down to 2x daily, 1x daily on Sat

At first, I thought WN buying used B738s to cover for the MAX would be a waste of money. But after seeing what UA is doing by proactively acquiring 19 B73Gs, and also there being no timetable of the MAX returning to service, WN needs to stop sitting on their hands and do something. This inconveniencing of passengers can only be manageable for so long.


The intel has been horrible, to start out the word on the street was that it would only be grounded for a few weeks or a month. I think it is finally becoming clear that this is going to take some time to sort out. Next week, I think WN is going to feel the heat from their investors on coming up with a solution.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:46 am
by indygs
WN in a quick retreat at IND. Quite a retreat I might add, given where their ambition was maybe two years back.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:20 am
by kindeham
indygs wrote:
WN in a quick retreat at IND. Quite a retreat I might add, given where their ambition was maybe two years back.


Someone is going to smell blood in the water. I am kinda thinking Spirit, if they have the aircraft available.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:02 pm
by Midwestindy
kindeham wrote:
indygs wrote:
WN in a quick retreat at IND. Quite a retreat I might add, given where their ambition was maybe two years back.


Someone is going to smell blood in the water. I am kinda thinking Spirit, if they have the aircraft available.


WN went from serving 22 destinations in 2017/2018, its quite impressive how so much has changed, without an obvious reason

As predicted, IND-SFO has been drawn back to only 2x daily for October(not sure how long that will stay), and Christmas break. DL is going the opposite direction though, with DL extending the B738 on IND-SLC through December, and extending the B739 on IND-MSP through December

IND currently has the highest fares of any airport of its size, so I could see there being a power vacuum of sorts. SAN, BOS, AUS, LAX (if WN cuts back more), WAS, MSY, CUN/Carribean, SAT, Bay Area, PHL, PDX, NYC, e.t.c are all arguably underserved and would be good locations for other carriers to target.

I'd like for the airport to put more emphasis on getting domestic carriers to address some of the higher fare/underserved city pairs rather than waiting for carriers to do it on their own.

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:48 pm
by Bluegrass60
Am thinking DL's increases; ULCC's arrivals; WN MAX problems all causing WN to deploy assets where it see's a better ROI

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:49 pm
by NB1231
Headed from CLT to IND on an AA A321, our A319 that was scheduled had maintenance issues so we got upgraded thankfully, didn’t realize how much more room these had!