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Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:06 pm
by VV
StTim wrote:
VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm done reponding to someone saying it just won't happen. If there is a business case and buyers commit, it happens.

In my opinion, the A220-300 at LCY increases the chance IAG buys the type. It depends on quantity that Spirit might, or might not, orders as to which is more interesting.

...

Lightsaber


There will never be any business case and there will be NO buyers.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY.


But surely this is what will get the A220 into the BA fleet.


What?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:10 pm
by A321Lufthansa
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Well, maybe Airbus wants to slightly move away from the E195E2 and a little closer to the Max8. (And launching an A320.5?)

Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:17 pm
by strfyr51
danipawa wrote:
United and Spirit can add the A220 too

Maybe spirit can but I Highly doubt United would or will.
Airbus would virtually have to GIVE hem to United.
And?? for LESS than Delta got them..

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:22 pm
by Amiga500
VV wrote:
OMG.
Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


List the technical reasons please. [Do not list financial reasons.]

Is it (in your view) solely because of braking?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:39 pm
by rrbsztk
T4thH wrote:
rrbsztk wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/paris-delta-to-take-higher-weight-a220-459113/

Not sure though how many will be of the higher MTOW.

Oops, someone else answered first. Please delete my post...


Haven't seen official numbers but if entire fleet from 2020 will have higher mtow means all deliveries from January 2020 that would include 100% of A220-300 and about 35% of the 100s (based on 4 delivered in 2018 and planned 24 deliveries in 2019 leaving 17 of the A220-100s to be delivered 2020 onwards)


Sorry, but this is incorrect.
The MTOW upgrade for the A220-300 is scheduled for mid 2020 and for the A220-100 for 2021 (one year later).
Scheduled for approval in the A220-300 in mid-2020 and in the A220-100 about a year later, the mtow and resulting range increase will certainly open more transatlantic routes, added Dewar, while the 180-minute ETOPS capability will allow the likes of Asian launch customer Korean Air to fly more direct routes over the Pacific.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2019-06-11/airbus-commits-ensuring-a220-meets-full-potential



No need too apologize and thanks for the link. I was going off the Airbus press release saying "[Delta] is the first to select the new increased maximum takeoff weight option for its entire fleet from 2020" to say if that means all deliveries from January 2020 will have higher mtow these are what delta expects to recieve after Jan 2020.

The press release was vague in that it doesn't specify exactly what it meant by from 2020. So if the 300 is mid 2020 for higher mtow...that could still be all 50 A220 higher mtow Delta is getting six A223 in 2020 and not sure when the first one is but could be within a broad definition of mid 2020 (so like mid means March to October). If the first A223 is delivered in January though maybe a couple don't have higher mtow.

For the A221 this changes things. When they had 40 on order they were all delivered by end 2020. Then they ordered 5 more without specified delivery date (that I've found yet). So those 5 could be "about a year later" from "mid 2020" which would be a small subfleet of 5 or about 10% of the 45 A221s having the higher mtow.

So for the -300 Delta is still getting 100% or close to that. But for the -100 it's a very small subfleet 5 or ~10%.

Is it possible Delta can add the higher mtow to -100s delivered in 2020 once it's certified sometime 2021?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:54 pm
by Babyshark
A321Lufthansa wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Well, maybe Airbus wants to slightly move away from the E195E2 and a little closer to the Max8. (And launching an A320.5?)

Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.


Most logical decision based on what?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:14 pm
by VV
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
OMG.
Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


List the technical reasons please. [Do not list financial reasons.]

Is it (in your view) solely because of braking?


It is because CS300 is not able to land at LCY with reasonable paload. FULL STOP.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:27 pm
by ExMilitaryEng
My understanding was they get off full load if the LCY runway is expected to be dry at arrival time. Otherwise (and if crosswind?) they don't leave full load.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:50 pm
by A321Lufthansa
Babyshark wrote:
A321Lufthansa wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Well, maybe Airbus wants to slightly move away from the E195E2 and a little closer to the Max8. (And launching an A320.5?)

Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.


Most logical decision based on what?

On prevention of internal competition and covering of a big gap between A320 and 321. Also it will strengthen A320 position in case of unrecoverable failure of 737MAX.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:35 pm
by JamesCousins
VV wrote:
OMG.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


How about saving comments like this and leaving space of ones useful to the discussion in hand - if Bombardier/Airbus have mentioned certification, and well versed posters see it as a possibility allow it to be discussed. Unless you're the FAA or Airbus CEO you know really nothing for certain....

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:22 pm
by Amiga500
VV wrote:
It is because CS300 is not able to land at LCY with reasonable paload.


Is that because of braking performance?


[what exactly did you do in Montreal anyway?]

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:25 pm
by VV
JamesCousins wrote:
VV wrote:
OMG.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


How about saving comments like this and leaving space of ones useful to the discussion in hand - if Bombardier/Airbus have mentioned certification, and well versed posters see it as a possibility allow it to be discussed. Unless you're the FAA or Airbus CEO you know really nothing for certain....



I think you do not know what I know.
This said, I know perfectly well that there won't be any CS300 or A220-300 certification at LCY.

You should read al little bit some press articles when CS100 started the operation at LCY and with a little bit of logic you can deduce by yourself that CS300 certification at LCY will NEVER happen. It is an absolute certainty.

I am not going to give you any link, please find it by yourself.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:26 pm
by VV
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
It is because CS300 is not able to land at LCY with reasonable paload.


Is that because of braking performance?


[what exactly did you do in Montreal anyway?]


Can't say.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:38 pm
by Amiga500
VV wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
It is because CS300 is not able to land at LCY with reasonable paload.


Is that because of braking performance?


[what exactly did you do in Montreal anyway?]


Can't say.


Can't say it is because of braking performance?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:43 pm
by rrbsztk
rrbsztk wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/london-city-airport-setting-sights-on-airbus-passenger-plane-thats-partmade-in-northern-ireland-37290795.html

So in September last year theres an article with someone from LCY corporate affairs talking about certifying the A220-300.

"Liam McKay, the airport's corporate affairs director, said it hoped to certify the larger A220-300 for use. "


From the article posted earlier:
This is quotes from LCY corporate affairs director from September 2018 - less than a year ago.

The CS 100 - now the A220-100 - was "performing wonderfully" on its SWISS routes to Zurich and Geneva, he said. And Mr McKay said its qualities would be a selling point for other airlines as London City adds more stands to accommodate more airlines and planes. "For us, as we grow and we start to physically add more stands to accommodate next generation aircraft, we will be saying to airlines that this is what these airlines do and this is how they are performing."

Looking ahead, he said the airport was preparing for certification of the A220-300. "Because we have a short runway, planes need to go through some testing to be certified to fly safely in and out due to the steep ascent and descent into the airport. There has to be extensive testing to make sure they can safely fly.

"One of our aspirations would be to get the 300 certified. We are promoting the 100 and its ability and looking to get 300 certified over next few years.

My thoughts:
It seems LCY is aware of landing issues with their runway length and ability to fit A223s at the gates, and they are optimistic these will not be barriers to the A223 coming to LCY.

So if a customer wants it there's money on the table possibly

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:43 pm
by VV
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

Is that because of braking performance?


[what exactly did you do in Montreal anyway?]


Can't say.


Can't say it is because of braking performance?


Can't say, but believe me there won't be any CS300/A220-300 certification at LCY.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:47 pm
by Amiga500
VV wrote:
Can't say, but believe me there won't be any CS300/A220-300 certification at LCY.


Put up or shut up.

Is it because of braking?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:06 pm
by T4thH
JamesCousins wrote:
VV wrote:
OMG.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


How about saving comments like this and leaving space of ones useful to the discussion in hand - if Bombardier/Airbus have mentioned certification, and well versed posters see it as a possibility allow it to be discussed. Unless you're the FAA or Airbus CEO you know really nothing for certain....


According some news (if I remember correctly as part of the Jan/Feb-2019 Airbus North America tour with 50 reporters through all Airbus facilities in USA and Canada (including the start of building of the A220 FAL in Mobile and A220 facilities in Montreal)), it was mentioned, that Bombardier technicians have already worked for prolonged time on PIPs for the A220 family, but these will now not be implemented (only later on).
Airbus is not stupid, they are highly experienced and they know, what they do.
Priority is:
1. Get the A220 massproduce ready (just verify "Fliegerfaust", he has two, which describes nicely, what Airbus is now doing in Montreal FAL.)
2. Ramp up the production
3. Together with the vendors, reduce the production costs.

Only two PIPs have been already implemented on request by airlines:
1. ETOPS 180 by KAL
2. MTOW increase 2020/2021 (A220-300/A220-100) on request by several airlines. (with exception of KAL, which were not interested).

Less or more nothing is known regarding PIP in developement by Bombardier techicians.
What is known:
1. two additional seats/PAX per plane and this is confirmed, because it was the request by Airbus and they have noted it.
2. aerodynamic refinements, this is also confirmed that they are working on these, but not confirmed which one. It was discussed/expected change of position of sensors, sligth smoothing of the surface, closing of the wheel houses e.g.

And why I am writing this whole story:
3. Upgrade of the breaking system for the A220-300.

By bad luck, I do not any more find all of these links, there were several one describing the planned PIP.
one of these:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/17/pips-planned-for-a220-to-improve-operating-costs/

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:56 pm
by SteelChair
Babyshark wrote:
A321Lufthansa wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Well, maybe Airbus wants to slightly move away from the E195E2 and a little closer to the Max8. (And launching an A320.5?)

Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.


Most logical decision based on what?


Based upon the fact that the GTF engine (you know, the engine that won't fit under the wing of any 737) totally changes the economics of the existing A320 airplane. The proposed A220-500 is the most economical solution to the 149 seat mission.

Airbus and PW have already re-defined the narrowbody future, just some haven't seen it yet, or refuse to see it. 2 GTF's, one for the 5 abreast and one for the 6 abreast. Game over.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:09 am
by Babyshark
A321Lufthansa wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
A321Lufthansa wrote:
Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.


Most logical decision based on what?

On prevention of internal competition and covering of a big gap between A320 and 321. Also it will strengthen A320 position in case of unrecoverable failure of 737MAX.


The gap between a 320 and 321 isn't that big to warrant another model.

And there is no internal competition with the 320N and 220. The 320 is rapidly approach nearly 9000 frames delivered or on order, the 320N being over 4000 of those. The 220 has 500ish orders and it has 0 commonality with the 14,000 A319/320/321 CEOs and NEOs that have been delivered or ordered.

The market has been pretty loud and clear.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:29 am
by Babyshark
SteelChair wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
A321Lufthansa wrote:
Well, IMO stretching the A320 to the size of so called A320.5 and replacing the original with A225 seems to be the most logical decision.


Most logical decision based on what?


Based upon the fact that the GTF engine (you know, the engine that won't fit under the wing of any 737) totally changes the economics of the existing A320 airplane. The proposed A220-500 is the most economical solution to the 149 seat mission.

Airbus and PW have already re-defined the narrowbody future, just some haven't seen it yet, or refuse to see it. 2 GTF's, one for the 5 abreast and one for the 6 abreast. Game over.


The >= 149 seat market competition thus far between the A320 and A225:

-A320N 4100 orders
-A225 0 orders

The reason for the 0 orders for the 225 can be traced back to the fact it doesn't exist and hasn't been proposed and the people who would produce it are currently building A320Ns and enjoying watching it print money and the people who designed the CSeries are trying to exit commercial aviation.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:52 am
by Canuck600
JamesCousins wrote:
VV wrote:
OMG.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


How about saving comments like this and leaving space of ones useful to the discussion in hand - if Bombardier/Airbus have mentioned certification, and well versed posters see it as a possibility allow it to be discussed. Unless you're the FAA or Airbus CEO you know really nothing for certain....


I think you mean EASA as the FAA has nothing to do with certifications outside the United Stages

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:56 am
by StudiodeKadent
Babyshark wrote:

The gap between a 320 and 321 isn't that big to warrant another model.


The 737-8 fits pretty snugly between those two jets. It seems the market wants jets of that size. Of course that's a different question to whether or not Airbus SHOULD make such a jet, but it seems to me like there is enough of a gap between the two frames for the market to want something in the middle.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:16 am
by VV
T4thH wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
VV wrote:
OMG.

Please stop this madness about CS300 at LCY. It is not going to happen.


How about saving comments like this and leaving space of ones useful to the discussion in hand - if Bombardier/Airbus have mentioned certification, and well versed posters see it as a possibility allow it to be discussed. Unless you're the FAA or Airbus CEO you know really nothing for certain....


According some news (if I remember correctly as part of the Jan/Feb-2019 Airbus North America tour with 50 reporters through all Airbus facilities in USA and Canada (including the start of building of the A220 FAL in Mobile and A220 facilities in Montreal)), it was mentioned, that Bombardier technicians have already worked for prolonged time on PIPs for the A220 family, but these will now not be implemented (only later on).
Airbus is not stupid, they are highly experienced and they know, what they do.
Priority is:
1. Get the A220 massproduce ready (just verify "Fliegerfaust", he has two, which describes nicely, what Airbus is now doing in Montreal FAL.)
2. Ramp up the production
3. Together with the vendors, reduce the production costs.

Only two PIPs have been already implemented on request by airlines:
1. ETOPS 180 by KAL
2. MTOW increase 2020/2021 (A220-300/A220-100) on request by several airlines. (with exception of KAL, which were not interested).

Less or more nothing is known regarding PIP in developement by Bombardier techicians.
What is known:
1. two additional seats/PAX per plane and this is confirmed, because it was the request by Airbus and they have noted it.
2. aerodynamic refinements, this is also confirmed that they are working on these, but not confirmed which one. It was discussed/expected change of position of sensors, sligth smoothing of the surface, closing of the wheel houses e.g.

And why I am writing this whole story:
3. Upgrade of the breaking system for the A220-300.

By bad luck, I do not any more find all of these links, there were several one describing the planned PIP.
one of these:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/17/pips-planned-for-a220-to-improve-operating-costs/


There are several points to think about thoroughly about the above "PIP" story.
  • "Improving operating cost" means that the aircraft has some competitive headwind for some reasons. If it is good enough there is absolutely no reason to improve it when the number of deliveries are still so small and the delivery rate is slow. Airlines might just ask to defer delivery until the improvements are available.
  • Addition of main landing gear door. It is a big work and implies a major change on the MLG kinematics, belly fairing and also removal of the landing gear well liner. Again this is a major work and airlines might wish to wait until this is available with no extra cost. Why hasn't it been thought during the development? Or has it been proposed by some clever dudes, but rejected by the management back then?
  • ETOPS 180 minutes. Only an extremely few, if any, airlines need ETOPS 180 minutes for such a small aircraft. This feature is not understandable and is a waste of time and money.

There are other points that need to be scrutinized carefully.

I have the feeling there is a lack of understanding about the real market requirements for an aircraft as small as the A220-100 or A220-300 (CS100 & CS300). The proposed MTOW (and thus longer range) as well as the ETOPS 180 minutes reflect the lack of focus on the reality of the market for 100-150 seater aircraft.

It seems to me the "performance improvements" are just random and chaotic thoughts thrown out without any consideration of the market reality. It really sounds like something proposed by engineers and not in coordination with people with air transport & market expertise.

At this stage, if the orders are as firm as they are supposed to be the only focus should be on the delivery ramp up. Everything else is just a distraction.

Or are there possible cancellations?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:17 am
by VV
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
Can't say, but believe me there won't be any CS300/A220-300 certification at LCY.


Put up or shut up.

Is it because of braking?


I shut up.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:53 am
by StTim
VV wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
VV wrote:
Can't say, but believe me there won't be any CS300/A220-300 certification at LCY.


Put up or shut up.

Is it because of braking?


I shut up.


Good - as you are unprepared to back up your statements with any sort of fact that is probably best.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:35 am
by Fixinthe757
Why is it so important to this guy that the A220-300 (no longer the C series btw) not go to LCY? (wherever that is) and why does it matter?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:56 pm
by VV
Fixinthe757 wrote:
Why is it so important to this guy that the A220-300 (no longer the C series btw) not go to LCY? (wherever that is) and why does it matter?


Well, I don't care, but if they find an airline crazy enough to ask for A220-300 /CS300 operation to LCY then they can do whatever they want.

I say it is not going to happen.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:13 pm
by Babyshark
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

The gap between a 320 and 321 isn't that big to warrant another model.


The 737-8 fits pretty snugly between those two jets. It seems the market wants jets of that size. Of course that's a different question to whether or not Airbus SHOULD make such a jet, but it seems to me like there is enough of a gap between the two frames for the market to want something in the middle.


It's a 40 seat difference between most airlines configurations for their 321s and 320s. So 320.5 would add 20 seats? Seems most seem to just opt for the 321 then.

The 320s I fly are 157 seaters and our 738s are 160. Any 320 operator flying 320s at 150 could easily make them 156 close to 738 in a normal non LCC 3 class configuration.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:17 pm
by SQ22
Please keep this thread on topic, which is delivery/production. Feel free to open a new thread to discuss the other topics. Thanks.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:29 pm
by VV
Today is the last day of Q2 2019.

Does anyone know what the delivery tally is for A220 for the first half 2019?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:41 pm
by lightsaber
I'm not certain this is up to date:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-csr.htm#

I counted qty 3 delivered to AirBaltic and Qty 6 to Delta in 2Q.

KE finished deliveries, rumor of a top off order
Swiss is expected to take the two delayed A220-100 soon. Did I miss them in 2Q?

Next year starts new airlines deliveries.

Lightsaber

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:43 pm
by StTim
VV wrote:
Today is the last day of Q2 2019.

Does anyone know what the delivery tally is for A220 for the first half 2019?


20 I think. From https://aibfamily.com

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:46 pm
by lightsaber
StTim wrote:
VV wrote:
Today is the last day of Q2 2019.

Does anyone know what the delivery tally is for A220 for the first half 2019?


20 I think. From https://aibfamily.com

Thank you for the link.

This A220-100, per that site, was #20 of 2019:
https://aibfamily.com/A220/50037

Lightsaber

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:49 pm
by VV
StTim wrote:
VV wrote:
Today is the last day of Q2 2019.

Does anyone know what the delivery tally is for A220 for the first half 2019?


20 I think. From https://aibfamily.com


That's a good news. It seems they will at last hit the target they announced after three years in a row missing the target.

If my memory serves me well the target is 45 deliveries in 2019.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:59 pm
by rrbsztk
They delivered 12 this quarter:
April 3 (2 Delta and 1 Air Baltic)
May 4 (2 Delta and 2 Air Baltic)
June 5 (5 Delta)
Total 12 (9 Delta and 3 Air Baltic)

Re their delivery goal, they in passing in an interview mentioned 45, and based on what airlines have reported expecting to receive it's mid 40s.
With 25 to go to meet that goal, it is just over 4 per month. With the new pre delivery/delivery centers opening up sometime soon (if they haven't already opened, they have picked up pace a bit) that seems easily achievable.

Q# - # delivered that quarter (monthly rate) - # delivered in the last year (monthly rate)
2016
Q1 - 0 (0.00)
Q2 - 1 (0.33)
Q3 - 1 (0.33)
Q4 - 5 (1.67)
2017
Q1 - 2 (0.67) --- 9 (0.75)
Q2 - 5 (1.67) --- 13 (1.08)
Q3 - 4 (1.33) --- 16 (1.33)
Q4 - 6 (2.00) --- 17 (1.42)
2018
Q1 - 5 (1.67) --- 20 (1.67)
Q2 - 7 (2.33) --- 22 (1.83)
Q3 - 9 (3.00) --- 27 (2.25)
Q4 - 12 (4.00) -- 33 (2.75)
2019
Q1 - 8 (2.67) --- 36 (3.00)
Q2 - 12 (4.00) -- 41 (3.42)

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:50 pm
by Amiga500
If ramp kept pace with trends, your likely looking around 6/month by end of this year, or in around 18 in last quarter.

... and something like 15 in Q3, giving a 2019 total of 53.

[and maybe in around 80 in 2020]

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:01 pm
by rrbsztk
I can't tell if when they said 45 in passing it was with or without the 6 for STLC/RedWings. It was recently though that they said 45 so I'm guessing that's without Red Wings.

Currently based on news/reports for the rest of 2019 Air Canada is getting 1, Swiss 2, Air Baltic 3, Delta 10, and Egyptair at least 6 (can't find exact breakdown, but let's be optimistic and make it 8). This makes 24, which matches up with 25 more to get to 45.

Although it'd be awesome to see them ramp up that fast not sure they will. Losing the 6 for Red Wings hurt. That would've put them at 51 so a tiny bit lower than 53. I'm wondering (and hoping) if Delta ordered those 5 for delivery later this year (aka speed up current deliveries and add 5 more next year). That would let them push for 50. It would be a shame for them to slow production ramp up because of a lost lease.

Worth noting, I believe they are doing some work on assembly in Mirabel before shipping things to Mobile, so that sorta counts towards Mirabel ramping up.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:18 am
by Someone83
What is the main bottlenecks in the A220 production ramp up?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:40 am
by Amiga500
I wouldn't imagine they'll slow ramp at all - unless it allows them downtime for rejigging the line - but instead look to get it as high as possible.

Given the current MAX situation and the A320 backlog - if they can free up 10 or so slots for 2019/2020 deliveries of a CS300 airframe - that has to be worth something to someone. Either a new operator, an existing one pulling in deliveries or a lessor.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:37 am
by VV
Someone83 wrote:
What is the main bottlenecks in the A220 production ramp up?



Yes, that's the question I have in mind too.

If the bottleneck is not Mirabel the a second final assembly line in Alabama so early is useless.

The question about the bottleneck is pertaining.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:53 am
by Amiga500
Mirabel definitely was a bottleneck - not the fault of the workers there that BBD couldn't stand up the 2nd line.

There are, of course, other choke points in the big tree. There is work in hand in all areas that I know of to streamline production to both up rate and pull down cost.

What was the critical bottleneck 6 months ago may not be now.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:00 pm
by Someone83
Amiga500 wrote:
Mirabel definitely was a bottleneck - not the fault of the workers there that BBD couldn't stand up the 2nd line.
.


But "all" of Mirabel? I.e the FAL could be going smooth, but that doesn't help if the outfitting is going slow. I do assume that some parts of Mirabel worked better than others?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:20 pm
by VV
Amiga500 wrote:
Mirabel definitely was a bottleneck - not the fault of the workers there that BBD couldn't stand up the 2nd line.

There are, of course, other choke points in the big tree. There is work in hand in all areas that I know of to streamline production to both up rate and pull down cost.

What was the critical bottleneck 6 months ago may not be now.

And in 6 months there could be other bottleneck. Is that what you wanted to emphasize?

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:09 pm
by Amiga500
Someone83 wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Mirabel definitely was a bottleneck - not the fault of the workers there that BBD couldn't stand up the 2nd line.
.


But "all" of Mirabel? I.e the FAL could be going smooth, but that doesn't help if the outfitting is going slow. I do assume that some parts of Mirabel worked better than others?


Yep - how well bits of assembly go of course depend on how well equipped that particular station is for the rates needed.

Same everywhere else in the world - there will be chokepoints within the building that is the chokepoint of the overall process.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:10 pm
by TObound
At the rate they're going hitting the 120 promised years ago is going to take another few years.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:11 pm
by Amiga500
VV wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Mirabel definitely was a bottleneck - not the fault of the workers there that BBD couldn't stand up the 2nd line.

There are, of course, other choke points in the big tree. There is work in hand in all areas that I know of to streamline production to both up rate and pull down cost.

What was the critical bottleneck 6 months ago may not be now.

And in 6 months there could be other bottleneck. Is that what you wanted to emphasize?


Not really - although you might as well read that too.

Mirabel was a bottleneck. It still may be - but I don't have enough recent information to state that as fact. I probably conveyed that quite poorly in the post!

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:15 pm
by Amiga500
TObound wrote:
At the rate they're going hitting the 120 promised years ago is going to take another few years.


Might hit ~100 in 2021 and ~120 in 2022. [unless pace of ramp accelerates]

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:28 pm
by TObound
Amiga500 wrote:
TObound wrote:
At the rate they're going hitting the 120 promised years ago is going to take another few years.


Might hit ~100 in 2021 and ~120 in 2022. [unless pace of ramp accelerates]


Ugghh. They won't even have 200 cumulative till 2021. Who knows what would have happened without Airbus onboard.

Also speaks to why a hypothetical A225 would take forever. The expansion in production required would be huge. And no way Airbus is doing that until they have figure out where the 320 series is going.

Re: Airbus A220 (CSeries) Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:58 pm
by OA940
Idk how on-topic this is, but doesn't the A220-100 have 4300km range out of LCY? Didn't they say that when it got certified? So how come LX needs to block seats then?