2019 Q1 totals for BOS to upstate new york, also including MDT for reference
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSBUF 395 B6 37337 99.64 99.06 174.72 99.23% 100.4 559 66.53% 65.90 0.1668 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 16058 97.17 94.80 148.58 95.59% 75.2 396 53.92% 51.12 0.1294 77.56%
BOSSYR 265 AA 4928 130.32 119.95 184.30 83.89% 50.0 122 80.79% 96.91 0.3657 185.99%
BOSSYR 265 B6 11126 81.49 79.14 140.63 96.17% 100.0 169 65.83% 52.10 0.1966 100.00%
BOSROC 343 AA 16707 109.86 103.60 188.78 92.65% 50.1 403 82.81% 85.79 0.2501 125.63%
BOSROC 343 B6 12966 84.07 82.16 192.95 98.28% 100.0 156 83.12% 68.29 0.1991 100.00%
BOSMDT 335 AA 4022 260.17 248.19 292.10 72.71% 50.0 138 58.29% 144.67 0.4318 N/A
Keep in mind, AA's numbers on BOS-PIT when it quit that route was better than what it's getting now on ROC/SYR. I don't think they are going to stick around that much longer. ROC and MDT yield used to be about the same before B6 entered. Interesting that SYR does so much worse than ROC for B6. I think it has to be due to the timing of the route. All around very low yields in a low yielding quarter. That BUF DL number is really bad for a regional flight. Easily the worst in their entire network out of BOS.
When AA finally folds on SYR/ROC-BOS, a couple things could happen.
As far as SYR goes, I don’t think much of anything would happen. The times for the B6 flight to BOS and the fact that it has stayed the same since it’s inception and can’t possibly be making money show they’re only running it for A, politics, and B, aircraft utilization (prevents them from having an E190 sit in BOS when at least this way it has the chance to make money.) If they really are ending FLL and MCO completely (FLL doesn’t surprise me, but that MCO flight has been a legacy route for that station) then SYR May have to have a separate conversation. I don’t know if we’d see DL jump on SYR, it doesn’t really appear to be that big of a market. Also, as far as MCO goes, could the F9 addition have potentially caused the route to become over-saturated and simply unsustainable?
For ROC, I definitely see them adding a second daily. Now, if that would come with the cost of a JFK flight or not, that would have to be seen. A lot of people predicted that after BOS started B6 would simply go down to 2X daily on JFK and it would be some what of an “even exchange” like they’ve done for SYR, but that never happened. Personally, the fact that AA is still running 3X daily BOS from ROC and B6 loads have been surprisingly consistently strong so far, I think a second flight could be added without anything else having to be cut in exchange. I think DL entering the market would be a surprise. Not impossible, but based on how BUF has performed, like everyone else has stated, it’s not worth the competition to lose that much on an insignificant addition.
What I want to know, is if anyone has the data for DL/B6 on BUF/ROC/SYR-JFK? I’m curious to know how profitable these routes appear to be and how they’re performing, specifically for B6 out of ROC/SYR.
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