Finally got around to fully updating my Load Factor Spreadsheet for October (July for Intl). Probably good since the next month comes out tomorrow.
I have noticed that DL has much weaker load factors on STL-CVG nonstop service than WN does on STL-CMH, STL-DSM, STL-MCI, STL-MKE, and STL-OMA nonstop service. WN also currently operates STL-CMH, STL-DSM, STL-MKE, and STL-OMA nonstop flights on Boeing 737 planes whereas DL currently operates STL-CVG nonstop service on CRJ 200 and CRJ 700 regional jets.
DL also still currently charges significantly higher fares on last-minute nonstops to CVG from STL than WN does on last-minute nonstop flights to CMH, DSM, MCI, MKE, and OMA from STL.
Here is what DL currently charges on STL-CVG compared to what WN charges on STL-CMH, STL-DSM, STL-MCI, STL-MKE, and STL-OMA:
STL-CVG on DL - $796 last-minute, $416 21-day advance purchase
STL-CMH on WN - $534 last-minute, $250 21-day advance purchase
STL-DSM on WN - $444 last-minute, $172 21-day advance purchase
STL-MCI on WN - $426 last-minute, $210 21-day advance purchase
STL-MKE on WN - $504 last-minute, $246 21-day advance purchase
STL-OMA on WN - $460 last-minute, $264 21-day advance purchase
I think that DL charging significantly higher fares on STL-CVG compared to what WN currently charges on STL-CMH, STL-DSM, STL-MCI, STL-MKE, and STL-OMA nonstop flights is weakening demand for DL STL-CVG nonstop service and load factors on DL's STL-CVG nonstop flights.
WN would certainly charge lower fares on STL-CVG than DL currently does on STL-CVG if WN adds STL-CVG nonstop service. WN would also likely stimulate additional demand for STL-CVG nonstop service if it adds STL-CVG nonstop service since WN carries significantly more passengers on its STL-CMH, STL-DSM, STL-MCI, STL-MKE, and STL-OMA nonstops than DL currently does on STL-CVG nonstops.
Another big difference is that most of the domestic destinations east of CVG that are still served nonstop out of CVG on DL are already served nonstop out of STL on WN, whereas DSM and OMA have nonstop service to fewer destinations east of the Mississippi.