Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 2:47 am

stl07 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
International Load Factors for November
Air Canada 64%
Southwest to Cancun 70% (1st month daily service besides March)
Frontier to Cancun 73%
WOW 44% (1st month after WOW announced they were leaving)


February Load % on ne hiwer routes

Looking much better
Sun Country Tampa 84%
Sun Country Fort Myers 80%

Frontier Jacksonville 70%
Frontier West Palm Beach 82.5%

Southwest Hartford 83%


A headscratcher for SY to have those load factors to Tampa and Ft Myers in just the 1st or second month of operation and not bring them back again this fall.

They were selling them at 39 each, not exactly profitable. They still haven't published all the schedule yet we will see


Depends on how much people paid for extras just like F9 selling 29 fares and seem to be doing okay on them. And SYs fares can jump quickly if they get enough demand. My parents bought some one day at 39 and the next they were over 100.

Hopefully they bring those routes back now that they seem to have gotten better loads once people figure out who Sun Country was.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 11:46 pm

Jshank were the new gates you posted about the same ones we already know about or have you heard something else
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 19, 2019 1:20 am

stl07 wrote:
Jshank were the new gates you posted about the same ones we already know about or have you heard something else


Same as before. Next summer opening for the D/E ones is just my best guess. I know they have been agreed to just not a opening date. No bids have went out for the work yet as far as I know.
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 19, 2019 10:43 am

stl07 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
International Load Factors for November
Air Canada 64%
Southwest to Cancun 70% (1st month daily service besides March)
Frontier to Cancun 73%
WOW 44% (1st month after WOW announced they were leaving)


February Load % on ne hiwer routes

Looking much better
Sun Country Tampa 84%
Sun Country Fort Myers 80%

Frontier Jacksonville 70%
Frontier West Palm Beach 82.5%

Southwest Hartford 83%


A headscratcher for SY to have those load factors to Tampa and Ft Myers in just the 1st or second month of operation and not bring them back again this fall.

They were selling them at 39 each, not exactly profitable. They still haven't published all the schedule yet we will see


Why would airlines sell seats at prices that make the route unsustainable even with good load factors? WN was not matching these prices. They could've doubled the price to $79 and still gotten good loads. Kind of like WOW selling tix for $99 that ultimately put them out of business.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 19, 2019 12:10 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:

A headscratcher for SY to have those load factors to Tampa and Ft Myers in just the 1st or second month of operation and not bring them back again this fall.

They were selling them at 39 each, not exactly profitable. They still haven't published all the schedule yet we will see


Why would airlines sell seats at prices that make the route unsustainable even with good load factors? WN was not matching these prices. They could've doubled the price to $79 and still gotten good loads. Kind of like WOW selling tix for $99 that ultimately put them out of business.


It isn't that simple. Airline pricing isn't as simple as just raising the price to X amount. ULCCs make a boatload of money off of anciliary fares, that's why WW priced their flights so low.

For example you are ignoring other variables like: Ancillary revenue (baggage fees), Hotels, Seat Selection, e.t.c. Not sure about SY, but NK made 1/2 their total revenue off of ancillary revenue, I would imagine SY is somewhere around 30%.

Therefore, while some flights may have been sold at $39, that does not determine whether a ULCC flight was profitable or not. Especially if they are flights to RSW and TPA, where many families travel and stay for 3+ days, you are going to have families who want to sit together(+seat selection fees) and bring lots of baggage(+baggage fees)

If you price higher you also lose the advantage of being an ULCC, and people will just chose to fly WN
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maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 19, 2019 9:25 pm

Was anybody else at the Honor Flight last night? Got a gate pass, through security. We formed lines around the hallway near Gate E8. A Southwest Airlines 737-700 (N458WN) pulled up from DCA 20 minutes early, with all the vets getting off. Everyone applauded. It was hot in the terminal, and most flights were delayed. N458WN was continuing (as a different #) to Ft. Myers, 3 hours delayed. WN3569 (STL-DAL) ended up with a whopping 8 hour delay.
Anyway, we went downstairs, holding flags, and went down the hall past the bag claim to the international arrivals area. There, a bunch of songs were sung and awards presented. We held flags. This was right outside the FIS. It was open to the public, and people coming from the ex-D gates could see down through a glass partition.

As we drove home, a big front came through, and they started using 6/24 for arrivals and departures. They've used the crosswind a bit today too.
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 4:10 pm

ATTN Spotters, last chance for a while to snap a 735 coming to town. Sharks charter for game 6. LET'S GO BLUES!!!!!!

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/KAI525/history/20190520/1730Z/KSJC/KCPS
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 4:44 pm

AvGeek announcement better be a new restaurant where India palace was
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 9:50 pm

^I expect to be underwhelmed.

RSW and TPA are back on the Sun Country schedule starting in December. Great to see.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 10:17 pm

^^My two theories for tomorrow are either SY (as they usually announce things in that time frame) which has just gained even more merit than when I was thinking about it this morning as PVD just got a PUJ flight or something very underwhelming like last time
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 10:27 pm

Also, MSP got extended to be year round. Summer, I can understand as there are things up there like boundary waters that people here would want to see, and maybe a minnesotaite would want to come down for a baseball game or to see the arch and have a little STL long weekend, but what leisure traveler wants to go to MSP during the winter, and it's not like STL is some kind of warmer escape either. Can connections alone really fill that flight?
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 11:47 pm

I don't think it will be a route announcement. Just with how they worded it.

Best case: a fun event or new viewing area.

More probable. Some stat release or something like that.

And MSP has to be SY pushing connections west, there is plenty of service on that route with WN and DL already. I am curious to see how it does
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 11:55 pm

Ground stop stay safe everyone. Reported sightings in Chesterfield and Bridgeton (hence the ground stop)
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:11 am

A while back someone had asked how HUX is sustainable. I wasted a lot of time today researching aviation and travel like a true a.netter when they have free time and apparently, there is a major subsidy program to increase tourism to Oaxaca, the state HUX is in, by the Mexican Federal Government to develop that state's slower economy
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:28 am

stl07 wrote:
A while back someone had asked how HUX is sustainable. I wasted a lot of time today researching aviation and travel like a true a.netter when they have free time and apparently, there is a major subsidy program to increase tourism to Oaxaca, the state HUX is in, by the Mexican Federal Government to develop that state's slower economy


Is there any reason HUX is served by a bunch of Canadian carriers but none of the major US ones?
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:52 am

STLflyer wrote:
stl07 wrote:
A while back someone had asked how HUX is sustainable. I wasted a lot of time today researching aviation and travel like a true a.netter when they have free time and apparently, there is a major subsidy program to increase tourism to Oaxaca, the state HUX is in, by the Mexican Federal Government to develop that state's slower economy


Is there any reason HUX is served by a bunch of Canadian carriers but none of the major US ones?

AA soon
SY and UA already do
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:41 am

stl07 wrote:
A while back someone had asked how HUX is sustainable. I wasted a lot of time today researching aviation and travel like a true a.netter when they have free time and apparently, there is a major subsidy program to increase tourism to Oaxaca, the state HUX is in, by the Mexican Federal Government to develop that state's slower economy


Interesting. I always thought that was a random route choice.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:46 am

stl07 wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
stl07 wrote:
A while back someone had asked how HUX is sustainable. I wasted a lot of time today researching aviation and travel like a true a.netter when they have free time and apparently, there is a major subsidy program to increase tourism to Oaxaca, the state HUX is in, by the Mexican Federal Government to develop that state's slower economy


Is there any reason HUX is served by a bunch of Canadian carriers but none of the major US ones?

AA soon
SY and UA already do

Edit--I think UA stopped flying there a few months back, they might resume service though
AA is adding DFW
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:15 pm

Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:16 pm

Since not all of us are going to be selected, can we make some sort of question list to ask RHN and give it to someone that "wins"
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maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:33 pm

stl07 wrote:
Ground stop stay safe everyone. Reported sightings in Chesterfield and Bridgeton (hence the ground stop)


It was a non-event
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 4:01 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Ground stop stay safe everyone. Reported sightings in Chesterfield and Bridgeton (hence the ground stop)


It was a non-event

Not for the thousands of people that had to change their travel plans/miss meetings like one of my family members
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maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 4:33 pm

stl07 wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Ground stop stay safe everyone. Reported sightings in Chesterfield and Bridgeton (hence the ground stop)


It was a non-event

Not for the thousands of people that had to change their travel plans/miss meetings like one of my family members


In the grand scheme of things. I was expecting worse.
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 4:41 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
stl07 wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:

It was a non-event

Not for the thousands of people that had to change their travel plans/miss meetings like one of my family members


In the grand scheme of things. I was expecting worse.

Yup, we were blessed that it hit Augusta instead of the population base in the city/county
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 11:46 pm

stl07 wrote:


Same. Actually a pretty cool event. Hopefully someone off here gets to go.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 12:50 am

Jshank83 wrote:
stl07 wrote:


Same. Actually a pretty cool event. Hopefully someone off here gets to go.


It will be interesting if the airport actually reveals some good information. Time will tell.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 1:01 am

dcaproducer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
stl07 wrote:


Same. Actually a pretty cool event. Hopefully someone off here gets to go.


It will be interesting if the airport actually reveals some good information. Time will tell.


STL airport folks I know you are reading this, make sure you pull out all the stops for your Avgeeks!
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 6:41 am

Sorry if this was posted a while back -- I went back a few pages of this thread and didn't see it mentioned -- but the late August upgrade of AAG's STL-SAN r/t is not happening (as of now at least.) The current schedules for late August and September now show the route remaining an EMJ.

My guess is it has to do with the MAX issues; AS was supposed to start taking delivery on MAX9s and enter them into service in June/July. They're assuming that isn't happening so some mainline upgrades and capacity growth in late summer/fall isn't happening either? There could be some other AS routes to STL affected as well perhaps? (The SAN-MCI upgrade at the same time has also been cancelled.)

bb
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 7:20 am

Well, jshank, I do hope you will apply. If they're looking for someone who promotes the airport I would think you fit the bill. STL07. Trololzila, if he's on here. I'd think I'm third string at best, but I will apply. But you guys . . . I'd hope you'd make the cut. Depends on who applies, I guess. Anyway, that's really a cool sounding little event! :)
TW AA MU JL KE DL UA LOF GJS SKW WN
STL JFK FRA GVA CDG IAD ORD PVG SGN NRT ICN ATL SFO HKG MDW LGA BNA
L1011 MD82 83 88 B737 738 741 744 762 772 773 777 A320 E175 C700
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 9:23 pm

symphonicpoet wrote:
Well, jshank, I do hope you will apply. If they're looking for someone who promotes the airport I would think you fit the bill. STL07. Trololzila, if he's on here. I'd think I'm third string at best, but I will apply. But you guys . . . I'd hope you'd make the cut. Depends on who applies, I guess. Anyway, that's really a cool sounding little event! :)


I got an invite so I don’t have to do the contest. It is nice they are giving auto invites to at least some people who interact with them often. Also means more than 20 people, which is good.
 
Trololzilla
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 12:35 am

symphonicpoet wrote:
Well, jshank, I do hope you will apply. If they're looking for someone who promotes the airport I would think you fit the bill. STL07. Trololzila, if he's on here. I'd think I'm third string at best, but I will apply. But you guys . . . I'd hope you'd make the cut. Depends on who applies, I guess. Anyway, that's really a cool sounding little event! :)

Appreciate the sentiment but you probably fit the qualifications more than I do haha - all I've really done for STL is spruce up and maintain the Wiki page and have a general passion for aviation. I don't ever really have the time to get up to the airport to do any photography, whereas you do and have taken some fantastic pictures. I also don't have a Twitter or an Instagram account, one of which is required for the contest (along with the photos).
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:15 am

Trololzilla wrote:
symphonicpoet wrote:
Well, jshank, I do hope you will apply. If they're looking for someone who promotes the airport I would think you fit the bill. STL07. Trololzila, if he's on here. I'd think I'm third string at best, but I will apply. But you guys . . . I'd hope you'd make the cut. Depends on who applies, I guess. Anyway, that's really a cool sounding little event! :)

Appreciate the sentiment but you probably fit the qualifications more than I do haha - all I've really done for STL is spruce up and maintain the Wiki page and have a general passion for aviation. I don't ever really have the time to get up to the airport to do any photography, whereas you do and have taken some fantastic pictures. I also don't have a Twitter or an Instagram account, one of which is required for the contest (along with the photos).


Keeping the wiki up to date I am sure can be tedious though. I appreciate you doing it.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 1:56 pm

Trololzilla wrote:
symphonicpoet wrote:
Well, jshank, I do hope you will apply. If they're looking for someone who promotes the airport I would think you fit the bill. STL07. Trololzila, if he's on here. I'd think I'm third string at best, but I will apply. But you guys . . . I'd hope you'd make the cut. Depends on who applies, I guess. Anyway, that's really a cool sounding little event! :)

Appreciate the sentiment but you probably fit the qualifications more than I do haha - all I've really done for STL is spruce up and maintain the Wiki page and have a general passion for aviation. I don't ever really have the time to get up to the airport to do any photography, whereas you do and have taken some fantastic pictures. I also don't have a Twitter or an Instagram account, one of which is required for the contest (along with the photos).


Well, I might be disqualified as well. I use neither Twitter nor Instagram. I suppose I could sign up. There's nothing there saying you had to have been a member at any time previously. That said, I'm not sure I care to sign up. Though . . . there are certain twitter users in this thread that might be worth following. Whether I care for the hash that Twitter has made if internet tagging or not, there is at least a little bit of interesting information there. Hmm. This does give one pause. Shame they included that little debacle in the application process, but . . . both are bigger platforms than any aviation or urban development site of which I'm aware. Not wiki grade big, but bigger than flightaware, say. (I am amused to see that Yahoo is, in fact, still bigger than both Twitter and Instagram. Not for much longer, I expect, as Yahoo is dropping like a brick, but . . . it amuses me.)
TW AA MU JL KE DL UA LOF GJS SKW WN
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Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 5:08 pm

April numbers are out.

Up 3% on the month
Up 3% for the year.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Lots of good info for summer in the release.

https://www.flystl.com/newsroom/stl-new ... his-summer
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 6:39 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
April numbers are out.

Up 3% on the month
Up 3% for the year.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Lots of good info for summer in the release.

https://www.flystl.com/newsroom/stl-new ... his-summer


The increase in number of flights from Frontier is interesting and good to see the mainline on the UA flights.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 7:26 pm

I’m a little surprised Denver isn’t get a mainline UA flight. They have the last few years at least. But with F9 and WN adding DEN frequency maybe it scared them off.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 8:39 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I’m a little surprised Denver isn’t get a mainline UA flight. They have the last few years at least. But with F9 and WN adding DEN frequency maybe it scared them off.

Same, it would really help AX and G7 move crew members with out bumping from STL to DEN to have more capacity.
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dcaproducer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 8:55 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I’m a little surprised Denver isn’t get a mainline UA flight. They have the last few years at least. But with F9 and WN adding DEN frequency maybe it scared them off.


Yeah, but DEN is a massive UA hub. You’d think they’d want to defend it. They likely are using mainline on SFO to feed TPAC flights.

Any word on the possibility of more WN gates or the rest of C? The airport has been very quite lately.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 9:01 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I’m a little surprised Denver isn’t get a mainline UA flight. They have the last few years at least. But with F9 and WN adding DEN frequency maybe it scared them off.


Yeah, but DEN is a massive UA hub. You’d think they’d want to defend it. They likely are using mainline on SFO to feed TPAC flights.

Any word on the possibility of more WN gates or the rest of C? The airport has been very quite lately.


I haven’t gotten and update in awhile. Just that 3 more are signed off on. But no start date. I keep an eye on construction bids but I still think they won’t open until next summer.
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 12:50 pm

stl07 wrote:
Also, MSP got extended to be year round. Summer, I can understand as there are things up there like boundary waters that people here would want to see, and maybe a minnesotaite would want to come down for a baseball game or to see the arch and have a little STL long weekend, but what leisure traveler wants to go to MSP during the winter, and it's not like STL is some kind of warmer escape either. Can connections alone really fill that flight?


Looks like SY is here to stay but taking baby steps. December will see them flying 4 different routes - LAS,MSP,RSW &TPA
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 12:52 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
April numbers are out.

Up 3% on the month
Up 3% for the year.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Lots of good info for summer in the release.

https://www.flystl.com/newsroom/stl-new ... his-summer


Hopefully on track to hit 17 million passengers this year.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 2:15 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
April numbers are out.

Up 3% on the month
Up 3% for the year.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Lots of good info for summer in the release.

https://www.flystl.com/newsroom/stl-new ... his-summer


Hopefully on track to hit 17 million passengers this year.


3% for the year puts them at 16.1 million. I would guess that is about what it will stay at. With WN axing back their summer schedule to more like 2% growth instead of 6% I don't see us having a big increase anywhere. 3% probably is about right. We would need 8.75% yearly growth to get to 17 million. At least Sun Country should make up for the WOW decrease.
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 11:50 pm

A plane that took off from ALN crashed off the Florida coast today. Pilot was unresponsive for about the last hour of flight. Reminds me of the Payne Stewart plane.

https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/artic ... 896752.php
 
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symphonicpoet
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 5:51 am

^Geeze. Sorry to hear that. :(
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 7:35 pm

Updated LFs in my spreadsheet for Feb.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 12:51 am

I heard you guys talking about beyond gate C28. I was wondering if any of you guys have any pictures of it?
 
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 3:43 am

TangoAlphaWhisk wrote:
I heard you guys talking about beyond gate C28. I was wondering if any of you guys have any pictures of it?

I haven’t seen any taken of the renovations besides the short clip on YouTube that was taken down. But you couldn’t see much.
 
reednavy
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:01 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:51 pm

I do wonder if/when B6 will enter the market. If they were truly wanting to get more foothold in the middle of the country, STL would be a great opportunity for a potential focus operation, granted going toe-to-toe with WN would be a heavy undertaking.
 
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stl07
Posts: 1398
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:13 pm

reednavy wrote:
I do wonder if/when B6 will enter the market. If they were truly wanting to get more foothold in the middle of the country, STL would be a great opportunity for a potential focus operation, granted going toe-to-toe with WN would be a heavy undertaking.

Oh it would be a great opportunity. They just have to see more potential in the Midwest and understand that America extends beyond the coasts
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:37 pm

reednavy wrote:
I do wonder if/when B6 will enter the market. If they were truly wanting to get more foothold in the middle of the country, STL would be a great opportunity for a potential focus operation, granted going toe-to-toe with WN would be a heavy undertaking.


Wn would kill them if they try more than Bos and jfk. They don't have the financial resources for such a battle. They are not intentionally ignoring middle of the country. They are just flying to places where they can get better return. And currently, they are reluctant to add more than one City from middle of the country per year.

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