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atcsundevil
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Allegiant Discussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:53 am

Please continue from the previous discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1371085
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:56 am

I wonder what the planning is like when it comes to adding international beach destinations or if it is even in the cards. I feel like flights to the Caribbean out of secondary airports could possibly be a niche for Allegiant.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:35 am

Will Allegiant move to Terminal 1 at SAN?
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:04 am

I think US Virgin Islands be a good place to try maybe build or buy a resort for Sunseeker Resorts.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
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Aloha717200
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:48 am

Looks like Allegiant will be dropping IWA-BOI after May 13, but adding an additional LAX frequency to BOI from July onwards. Could IWA-BOI be going winter seasonal or gone for good?
 
freakyrat
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:57 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I wonder what the planning is like when it comes to adding international beach destinations or if it is even in the cards. I feel like flights to the Caribbean out of secondary airports could possibly be a niche for Allegiant.


Seasonal SBN-CUN has been in the works for a few years now.
 
Northwest1988
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:15 pm

Hopefully they will bring back PGD-GSP. It’s one of the original PGD routes and it’s deeply missed.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:06 pm

I predict AVL-LAS in the new year.
 
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william
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:34 pm

Allegiant has stated they will start connecting the dots in the their system, will be interesting to see that play out.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:14 pm

FWIW~ Seven jets in induc right now at BQN: two 320s; 242 and 243 and five 319s; 315, 320, 321, 322 and 323 as well as one new build 320; 276, in the registration process now, about to ferry. This brings the count to 84 when they enter service soon.
 
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:21 pm

Former Vueling A320 EC-HQJ is at OSR for paint and pending re-registration as N244NV.
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:06 am

I wonder if Allegiant would ever consider flying from warmer locations like AUS or PIE to winter destinations such as DEN, MTJ, or even EGE. In a way, flipping their business model of flying from small, northern communities to warm, leisure destinations.
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:26 am

Looks like G4 is going to have some new routes announcements today. I’m not seeing anything for RDU so the announcement for them must be something else. New routes I am seeing:
TUL-VPS
BNA-GRR
TYS-DEN

I am sure there may be others.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:28 am

CLE/CVG-ORF is very surprising
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Midwestindy
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:31 am

I see service to ANC as well!
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:36 am

Midwestindy wrote:
I see service to ANC as well!

Wow completely missed that one. Very interesting!
 
Runway28L
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:41 am

2x weekly seasonal TUL-VPS appears to be loaded. Runs June 6-August 11. TUL-BWI no longer showing up.

Perhaps that pertains to TUL's announcement.
https://twitter.com/tulsaairports/statu ... 5735955462
 
FATFlyer
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:52 pm

A total of 16 new routes announced today:
AZA-GJT
AZA-FCA
BLI-ANC
CLE-CHS
CLE-ORF
CVG-ORG
DEN-TYS
GRR-BNA
MYR-ALB
MYR-HGR
SAV-ABE
SAV-GRR
SAV-IAG
SAV-PSM
VPS-OMA
VPS-TUL
http://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/12440548/allegiant-announces-16-new-routes-and-service-to-alaska
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:09 pm

Why is Savannah so popular with G4?
 
PVD757
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:12 pm

Was hoping PVD might see something new. Oh well.
 
jplatts
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:14 pm

While G4 hasn't yet added nonstop service to SAV from BLV, MCI, or MKE, G4 could add BLV-SAV, MCI-SAV, and MKE-SAV nonstop service. There is also currently no nonstop service to SAV from BLV, MCI, MKE, or STL on any airline.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:34 pm

G4 has been doing well in SYR. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an announcement for SYR-SAV or SYR-VPS sometime this year.
 
TMccrury
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:58 pm

While at BHM yesterday, there were at least 13 plus Allegiant MD80 planes parked. According to an article I read, these have been retired.
 
Northwest1988
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:10 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
I predict AVL-LAS in the new year.


I’ve been told it’s already in the works, but it can’t happen until the runway construction is completed.
 
Northwest1988
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:12 pm

TMccrury wrote:
While at BHM yesterday, there were at least 13 plus Allegiant MD80 planes parked. According to an article I read, these have been retired.


Have they been stripped of their Allegiant titles yet?
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:49 pm

GRR becomes a G4 base (again) with 2 A/C RON starting June 4.

http://ir.allegiantair.com/news-release ... w-jobs-and

GRR up to 9 destinations: LAS, IWA, PIE, PGD, SFB, SRQ, FLL, SAV, BNA
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:02 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
I wonder if Allegiant would ever consider flying from warmer locations like AUS or PIE to winter destinations such as DEN, MTJ, or even EGE. In a way, flipping their business model of flying from small, northern communities to warm, leisure destinations.


Well, your wish came true to an extent!

If FCA and GJT are successful we could see service to the likes of EGE, HDN, and MTJ. Winter ski airports are some of the last major airport types that haven't seen exposure to low-cost air travel. F9's JAC-DEN service is a start, but even small Midwest and Eastern towns get Allegiant service. Are these airports expensive? EGE and ASE would be great for a LCC.
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drdisque
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:06 pm

ASE can't handle mainline aircraft so a LCC isn't happening there.

FCA and GJT do have relatively large organic catchment areas so there will be originating traffic there as well. Larger than the likes of EGE or HDN.

Allegiant already flies seasonally to MTJ.
 
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spinkid
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:47 pm

TMccrury wrote:
While at BHM yesterday, there were at least 13 plus Allegiant MD80 planes parked. According to an article I read, these have been retired.


the article is correct. I know that just from reading a.net all the time :)

I'm wondering if we'll ever see G4 add east coast destinations to/from LAS. When they only flew MD-80's it made sense, but with an all Airbus fleet I'm wondering if we will ever see that.
 
DesertAir
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:01 pm

Will Allegiant move to Terminal 1 at SAN?

Terminal 1 is maxed out buy Southwest. They are using a gate in the AS/Frontier part of the terminal.
 
TMccrury
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:31 pm

Northwest1988 wrote:
TMccrury wrote:
While at BHM yesterday, there were at least 13 plus Allegiant MD80 planes parked. According to an article I read, these have been retired.


Have they been stripped of their Allegiant titles yet?


They have not. Unfortunately, I wasn't in a good place to snap a pic and post it here. The ones I could see, all still had fully colors. I was teasing the guy I was with about them being there. I told him, no wonder Allegiant can only do 1 or 2 flights a week to some places. 17 of their 18 planes are here. We had a good laugh.
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:30 am

A random, useless tidbit regarding G4 on TYS-DEN is this will be the first route in my memory with three carriers (UA, F9, G4) from TYS. I cannot remember 3 carriers flying any route in the last 25-30 years, potentially ever. F9 has served TYS for 8 years but has remained rather stagnant. I could potentially see G4 driving F9 off the route given they have a pretty loyal following in TYS. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
rj1385
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:46 am

Do we think that they will venture further east from Vegas? Even look into red-eyes now that they have more able aircraft.
 
cbphoto
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:04 am

I’d put money on a LAS-AVL flight in the near future, especially once Asheville completes their new runway!
ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
 
mspeaumsn
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:16 am

Any possibility of EAU or LSE getting seasonal service in the near future? Could see a twice weekly to FL/AZ working during the cold months.
 
joeblow10
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:57 am

TYSflyer wrote:
A random, useless tidbit regarding G4 on TYS-DEN is this will be the first route in my memory with three carriers (UA, F9, G4) from TYS. I cannot remember 3 carriers flying any route in the last 25-30 years, potentially ever. F9 has served TYS for 8 years but has remained rather stagnant. I could potentially see G4 driving F9 off the route given they have a pretty loyal following in TYS. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.


What's bizarre to me is that they picked some of the same exact days to operate as F9. They (G4) have a much better flight time than F9 on Wednesday, and then a worse time on Saturday.

I get the mentality to "drive-off" F9, but the schedule they filed (if they truly want to get rid of F9) is just going to split business between the two. I think all three will end up staying on the route, UA and to an extent F9 can drive connections, G4 not so much. I actually could see UA cutting back to 1x daily before F9 is driven off.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:26 am

A320 N276NV prepping for first flight;

Airbus Hamburg Finkenwerder News: A320-214SL, Allegiant Air, D-AUAT, N276NV (MSN 8671)

https://xfw-spotter.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... n-msn.html
 
Northwest1988
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:46 am

I have been hearing the Allegiant MD-80 fleet that’s now parked will picked up by Delta to use for parts to keeps the MD-88s flying. Can anyone confirm?
 
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Aloha717200
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:12 am

FATFlyer wrote:
BLI-ANC



This is fantastic! I'm happy to see this introduced, especially from BLI!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:06 pm

Northwest1988 wrote:
I have been hearing the Allegiant MD-80 fleet that’s now parked will picked up by Delta to use for parts to keeps the MD-88s flying. Can anyone confirm?

Unfortunately, I do not know. At this point, a MD-80 opperator had better offer money for parts (or buy the aircraft), or the aircraft will be scrapped.

If I were DL, I would buy airframes just for engines to avoid overhauls as much as economically possible. G4 had a write down in 2017 IIRC (or was it 2016?) due to the shear number of JT8Ds that couldn't make it the full overhaul interval with adequate reliability. Those overhauls were done by reputable shops, so the engines, at Allegiant utilization, must have thousands of cycles left.

But DL should bid low. :devil:
I expect few, if any competing bids other than as metsl.: $300k or so. So bid $400,000 for those with good engine/part records. I'm serious, resale values have been poor forever. So if the buy ten they'll pay $4 million, receive at least ten engines with good life worth about $5 million plus another $1 million in other parts and $2.5 million or so net for the metal (I assume neither engines or nacelles are scrapped).

It isn't worth buying one or two. It isn't worth buying more than 20 either nor paying the millions required to bring them into the fleet.

DL is slowly scrapping MD-80 and in particular MD-90:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-md80.htm

I keep a spreadsheet going. Since 2 July 2018, DL has sent to be parted 17 MD-80s and 13 MD-90s. They are almost, but not quite per my estimate, getting enough parts through internal retirements.

So if G4 tries to get more (they won't), DL just continues on as is. But since DL doesn't seem to be performing heavy C-checks on MD-80/90 aircraft, there is a limit on usable time left.

Serious question, is DL still performing C-checks on MD-80/90? Or has the 2-year clock started already? I would not be surprised if DL didn't renew their MRO c-check contract for 2019 on the MD-80/90, but I also wouldn't be surprised if a subset received the lowest cost C-checks in the first 9 months of 2019. In my spreadsheet, I find it doesn't impact profit much either way. It all depends on DL's yield, fuel price, and marketgrowth projections. When to stop the easiest C-checks is a function oil fuel price and yeild, in other words, a strategic decision.

The MD-80; retirement rate (17 of 103) coincides nicely with a natural ramp down as if heavy C-checks were stopped with light C-checks continuing if one assumes a few final heavy C-checks;happened in 2018 due to winding down MRO contracts. ;) Say about half of the needed during 1H 2018;and none 2H2018...

So it is the avoidance of engine overhauls that primarily would drive demand. Since DL is not upgrading avionics on the MD-80, retirement past 2020 cannot happen. Same with AA. So 10 to 20 purchased for engines makes sense.

I'm more interested to find out how Allegiant is doing on higher utilization routes with the new A320CEO. If as well as I believe, I speculate G4 has matured the route network enough for a very limited number of NEO. Very limited. They probably won't. I expect Airbus/CFM have white tails scheduled to be going down the line that they would love to find a willing buyer and Allegiant would be willing; for enough of a discounted price G4 would buy up to six more, I speculate. ;)

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georgiabill
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:13 pm

Is airbus still selling the A320CEO? If so I could see G4 taking a few more if the price was right.
 
jonnyclam123
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:56 pm

If they are connecting the dots in there system I think that SFB-LAS will happen.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:12 pm

cbphoto wrote:
I’d put money on a LAS-AVL flight in the near future, especially once Asheville completes their new runway!


Doesn't seem like the market would be that large.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:15 pm

On January 26th I am flying from FLL to AVL and back just to give Allegiant a try.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:48 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
georgiabill wrote:
Is airbus still selling the A320CEO? If so I could see G4 taking a few more if the price was right.

NEO engine delays are forcing both vendors to shift production back to the CEO.

For example, JetBlue was incentivising to delay NEO EIS and instead accept discounted engines for the A320. Rumor is they negotiated an A321 upgrade discount too. (PW1100G to V2500). CFM has had it just as bad. They are offering substantial discounts on the CFM-56 CEO (and 737NG) to mask their production issues (Let me be clear, both NEO engines have issues bin Production, dispatch reliability, and time on wing). Pratt has it worse as CFM always planned 'idle spares' that would theoretically never be used until they were re-allocated to a delivery. Now those deliveries are CFM-56 which had a surge capacity that is mind blowing.

So yes, more CEOs need to be sold. Some airlines are trying to upgrade to NEOs anyway. So there should be more CEOs available with CfM-56 engines (G4's choice) than Allegiant would buy.

Please forward not misunderstand me. I know enough about Allegiant's model to know 65%+ of their fleet must sit too much for a new Airframe with the
higher lease payments. They should also be conservative buying new in case of a downturn as lease payments are a fixed expense.

However, they are utilizing a subfleet enough to where they should buy more new. For a well discounted CEO, I could see a total if 2,5 to 30 (including those bought already, hence my estimate if 5 more).

If the redeyes work as well as I think they will, a subset of the fleet (I estimate 12 to 30 more) will be so heavily utilized, they should be NEOs.

Note s/b= should

My thresholds: s/b NEO if > 3,800 hrs year (10.5 hrs/day, more peak season, much less in September).

S/b new CEO if > 2,800 hrs/year or 7.8 hours/day average (again, more peak, less during down times).

Any line less than 2800 hours a year should be a used CEO. If below 2300, only the A319 is cheap enough for that and any line below 2,100 perhours of flying per year isn't viable for the Airbus. Of course, move aircraft by seasonal or daily demand.

My hope is redeyes push up utilization of the Airbus by 2 hours per day (on average, concentrated on the new airframes).

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lightsaber
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:56 pm

Just a link:
http://ir.allegiantair.com/static-files ... 458d293862

Allegiant used to use the older Airbus about 7 hour per day or 2,500 hours per year. I found... Lower quality links noting the new Airbus A320s was flying over 9.5 hours/day or 3,000+ hours per year.

I'm absolutely amazed by G4's low utilization of aircraft. But, they are evolving. A limited sub-fleet is high utilization.

I would have to patch together many sources, so take this as just my opinion, but it looks as if LAS and thus the West remains fully on the old model. It looks as if in Florida they have partially matured to daily utilization (excluding September) on half the flights.

Hence my above opinion that G4 needs 65%+ of their aircraft bought used (cheap ownership due to low utilization of the aircraft). But they are starting redeyes and more intense utilization where variable costs matter more.

So I could see a 2021 year end fleet if:
100 12+ year old Airbus
20 to 30 new CEO
12 NEO

Last I looked, fleet size at year end
2018: 75 (planned 78)
2019: 100 (I see possible upside by single digits on opportunity buys)
2020: 110 (I bet this grows).

Lightsaber
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jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:22 pm

The 13th new built A320 has been registered as N276NV and should ferry from Hamburg soon.
 
jgcotter
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:55 pm

A320 N276NV is en route from XFW to BGR then SFB for delivery.
 
csweet
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:57 pm

Are there any route announcements lined up in the near future?
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Allegiant DIscussion Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:15 pm

csweet wrote:
Are there any route announcements lined up in the near future?


I'm predicting SYR-VPS/SAV but SYR is my hometown airport so I'm biased. :D

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