wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:42 pm

fify wrote:
yochai wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

Thanks MO11!! Now N304CM. Noticed it went to ILN on 6/28, but didn't focus on it as a possible purchase, given the huge volume of feedstock available to CAM from other sources.


Due into TLV on Sunday 7/14 via tech stop in SNN.

This is my last year with Bedek, seems to be a very busy one! :D


Let us know before you retire (or move on)! We will fire off some virtual champagne bottles for you! :champagne: :champagne: :champagne: And thank you for all the reliable information!
 
fify
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:27 am

wjcandee wrote:
Let us know before you retire (or move on)! We will fire off some virtual champagne bottles for you! :champagne: :champagne: :champagne: And thank you for all the reliable information!

Thanks! As I am an foreign citizen in Israel, I am allowed maximum 5 years and 3 months working contract.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:09 am

Consistent what Fify told us, N304CM is in fact now on its way to SNN and then to TLV, evening of 7/12/19.

So, the current status of conversions is as follows:

Recent conversion N367AZ (formerly N730WE) is still at ILN, where it has been since 6/18/19, after returning from paint. Conversion was finished 5/15/19.

4 aircraft in TLV:
N354AA (to be N397AZ) since 2/21/19
N830WE (to be N419AZ) since 3/13/19
N1501P (to be N409AZ) since 5/14/19
and now N304CM.

3 aircraft purchased and stored but not yet converted:
N153DL
N381AN
N379AA

1 aircraft purchased and stored and likely going as a pax aircraft to Omni
N432AX (formerly N389AA)
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:12 am

N367AZ will be placed on the ATI OpSpecs within the next couple weeks and should enter service in August.

N255CM is now an ETOPS aircraft and will be flying the Pacific Freighter flights until N395CM returns from C Check, then it (255) will go back to being the network spare.
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:55 am

N354AA is basically almost done, saw it a few days ago being pushed back from the hangar into the engine run up bay, looks pretty sweet in that old AA livery and green side cargo door.
 
fify
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:54 pm

yochai wrote:
N354AA is basically almost done, saw it a few days ago being pushed back from the hangar into the engine run up bay, looks pretty sweet in that old AA livery and green side cargo door.

Yes, congrats :thumbsup: :thumbsup: to engineers and the maintenance team who managed to solve all the problems this aircraft had besides the conversion jobs! :D
 
CoThG
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:45 pm

Reading on APC that Atlas' Amazon flying is melting down due to lack of crews. I can't see Bezos tolerating this much longer.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:51 pm

CoThG wrote:
Reading on APC that Atlas' Amazon flying is melting down due to lack of crews. I can't see Bezos tolerating this much longer.


"I'm not dead yet!" Might be a little premature to call it a meltdown; it actually looks like the Amazon flying hasn't been going quite that badly, but according to a follow-up by the guy who initially suggested this, AMC, DHL and other flying is suffering to keep Amazon going. That stuff I haven't looked at as carefully.

I don't see it as a viable strategy to short-shrift either DHL or AMC in order to keep the Amazon operation on time. Both are critical Atlas customers, and DHL is a significant shareholder.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:33 pm

fify wrote:
yochai wrote:
N354AA is basically almost done, saw it a few days ago being pushed back from the hangar into the engine run up bay, looks pretty sweet in that old AA livery and green side cargo door.

Yes, congrats :thumbsup: :thumbsup: to engineers and the maintenance team who managed to solve all the problems this aircraft had besides the conversion jobs! :D


I was thinking that she might require a little more work than some others, given her age and hours (31/116,000+). Cycles are relatively-low (19,000+). If she's almost done, that extra work was accomplished well within the normal time frame for an IAI/Bedek conversion.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:28 pm

Talking about the Amazon fulfillment centers, there are some ongoing rumors that SNA6/9 in Eastvale, CA will be converted to Non-Sortable. The larger LGB3 Sortable facility next door to SNA6/9 opened last year, and it appears Amazon wants to add another Non-Sortable facility in the Inland Empire (current Non-Sortable facilities are ONT9 and LGB4 in Redlands, SNA4 in Rialto, and LGB6 in Riverside).
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WPvsMW
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:16 am

I found
https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulf ... buildings/
helpful in understanding the difference among Amazon centers.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:18 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I found
https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulf ... buildings/
helpful in understanding the difference among Amazon centers.


There are other types, such as apparel/footwear (which are often combined with another type) and luxury items. PHX3 here in Phoenix used to be Sortable but is now dedicated to apparel/footwear exclusively. In the Inland Empire, I have had clothing shipped from ONT2 (San Bernardino), ONT6 (Moreno Valley), and LGB3.

As for SNA6/9, from what I read, it appears that ever since LGB3 opened, the operation of the two sections of SNA6/9 have been reduced to part-time, which might explain why I don't get as many shipments from there as I have in the past. The SNA6 section operates during the daytime shift, while the SNA9 section operates during the night shift.
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:31 pm

Another thing that I think I heard somewhere, FedEx Ground's contract with Amazon runs until 2021. I would not be surprised to see them leave after Express decided not to renew. It appears FedEx does not want Amazon's business and wants to help others compete with them.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:43 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
Another thing that I think I heard somewhere, FedEx Ground's contract with Amazon runs until 2021. I would not be surprised to see them leave after Express decided not to renew. It appears FedEx does not want Amazon's business and wants to help others compete with them.


I respectfully disagree. It isn't that "Fedex doesn't want Amazon's business". It's that FedEx didn't want to build out its Express infrastructure to meet future anticipated demand, and wasn't willing to charge a market price for the Amazon Express business. The ground business model and infrastructure are entirely-separate from Express, unlike UPS which is integrated. Fedex was getting on average a couple of bucks more per Express package from Amazon than UPS was, and didn't want to get in line with the market. It takes 2 to tango, and what happened was that FedEx and Amazon couldn't come to terms on price.

Amazon may be reducing its reliance on FedEx Ground, but not because Fedex doesn't want that business, which is profitable. Indeed, I was interested to see in one article about Prime Day that Amazon is now delivering over 50 percent of its packages itself. Wow.

Since the Amazon contract ended, Fedex has done a number of very-telling things to cover how bad this contract loss is for it.

Most importantly, they have cut the price, for big customers, of the slowest-boat Express product to the same price as sending it by Ground. Same delivery time, but now delivered by one side of the company rather than the other.

This is KEY: because Ground and Express are separate entities, they are trying to divert a huge chunk of very-lowest-margin business from Ground and onto Express. Why? So the financials don't reflect that gaping hole that the loss of Amazon left. It's super-inefficient, environmentally-unsound, blah-blah, but they don't care. Look in the quarters ahead for stories about how FedEx is concerned that Ground isn't growing as fast as expected all of a sudden. FedEx has big problems financially on the Express side, and Ground was printing money. So they are making the kind of ass-covering business decisions that shareholders should be massively-pissed about (because you are a shareholder of the overall company and benefit or lose based on overall profitability), hitting Ground to steal business for Express to hide how badly the loss of Amazon affects that business.

Presumably, over time that hole will fill organically, and business that should be on Ground will move back to Ground. But I plan to laugh my tuckus off when I see articles in future quarters about how FedEx can't figure out what has happened to Ground while the impact of Amazon doesn't seem to have been felt at Express. Uh-huh.

PS Don't get me started about how stupid the coverage of Prime Day is. Amazon sold ten kabillion products each Prime Day, dwarfing anything humanly imaginable. When people bought those products, Amazon carefully indicated how fast they would arrive. Because a zillion per day were being ordered, Amazon in several cases gave itself up to 4 days to deliver. Don't want the product on that timetable? Don't buy it then. These are unscheduled impulse buys; it's hard to imaging that anyone needed them in 2 days. Nevertheless, media articles were talking about how packages were "LATE" because they didn't arrive in 2 days, even if Amazon had SAID before purchase that they would arrive in 4. I think the shark has jumped and nonprofessional media are now so-often providing more accurate information and storylines than the so-called "professional" media.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:24 pm

BTW, I actually got a package from PHX7 shipped via UPS Ground recently. This is rather unusual for my home address for Amazon to ship UPS Ground from a local fulfillment center. I also recently got a Same-Day Amazon Logistics order from PHX6, another Amazon Logistics order from ONT6, and a USPS order from LGB3.
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WPvsMW
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:46 pm

wjc, great post... including Fonzie and the shark.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:15 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
wjc, great post... including Fonzie and the shark.


Awww...thanks! You guys humble me.

In today's news: looks like N432AX, an AA aircraft (B763) that is going to Omni as a passenger bird and has been getting stuff done at MZJ, took a test flight today. So will be interesting to see what happens next...It flew under an Omni call sign.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:39 am

I just got another Amazon shipment via UPS Ground. I actually wonder if our ZIP code was recently removed from UPS' list of ZIP codes that are subject to delivery area surcharges. As of May 2019, our ZIP code is still on the list. I presume this was the main reason why Amazon avoided UPS/FedEx for our ZIP code. During Prime Week we also got deliveries from both Amazon Logistics and USPS.
Yes, I wear Fairy Tale Pink IZOD shirts. I am a real man.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:23 am

Looking into more news about UPS, it appears that this might actually be due to the new UPS Extended Hours Pickup for Next Day Ground Delivery offering that was just launched. Amazon might be testing this new service considering the times that my orders were shipped.
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USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:24 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
Looking into more news about UPS, it appears that this might actually be due to the new UPS Extended Hours Pickup for Next Day Ground Delivery offering that was just launched. Amazon might be testing this new service considering the times that my orders were shipped.


The announcement for UPS Extended Hours Pickup for Next Day Ground Delivery was public mostly for customers without contracts and with the basic contracts. I tend to think Amazon has a contractually negotiated set of deadlines that probably has had late pickups for quite some time. I've even seen things like packages getting inducted into UPS's sort at Louisville, KY at 2am for delivery later that day in Seattle, WA.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:02 pm

432AX is having a 3+ hour test flight today around MZJ, where Omni seems to get a good bit of its maintenance done. (Omni has also used AMES in the past, and indeed 441AX just arrived at ILN today for some work. I would expect more of this now that ATSG owns Omni. Of course, AMES is very busy, to the point that some ABX aircraft have been getting their checks done at GSO over the past 2 years. I'm counting 5 in 2 years.)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:32 pm

Last night and tonight, ABX's BWI-ILN-BWI flight has not flown. I don't know whether it's due to a mechanical issue that they have just decided to leave uncovered, or whether the flight has been dropped from the ILN network.

Also, N399CM, the Aloha Cargo 767-300, came to ILN today for some kind of maint. It was just there 4/22 to 5/5 for a two-week maintenance visit, so unclear what's up with it. N395CM, which just came out of maintenance, is covering.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:45 pm

5167A is now in regular service for Amazon. That brings the operating 737-800BCFs to 4. (The other active ones are 5113A, 5147A and 5153A.) There's a fifth one on-property at VQQ, but not in service yet (5179A).

The stations served by the 737-800s at the moment are RFD (the focus city), PDX, IAH, TPA.

There's been a lot of talk about Southern being unable sufficiently to staff the aircraft at the moment. This is supported by the hiring requirements being at the legal minimum for FOs. (Restricted ATP is okay, 1000 hours total time, 500 turbine hours "preferred", etc.). Mesa is apparently planning to bring the DHL 737-400s that are presently being operated by Southern over to them, and thereby start operating freight 737s. Southern sees Amazon as the greater growth opportunity, and so apparently is pitching the 737-400s overboard to Mesa. Curious why Kalitta Charters II didn't step up for them, or maybe Mesa underbid them. All this is rumour at the moment, but it does appear clear that Mesa is sticking its toe in on 737-400s for somebody.
 
N212R
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:16 pm

wjcandee wrote:
There's been a lot of talk about Southern being unable sufficiently to staff the aircraft at the moment. This is supported by the hiring requirements being at the legal minimum for FOs.


To what reasons do you ascribe this situation?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:33 pm

N212R wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
There's been a lot of talk about Southern being unable sufficiently to staff the aircraft at the moment. This is supported by the hiring requirements being at the legal minimum for FOs.


To what reasons do you ascribe this situation?


I'm no expert on this, but the rumors seem to be that the pay levels (although it is now under the Atlas CBA) and work environment aren't sufficient to attract enough qualified pilots. I don't know whether that's true. I suspect that with the 737s for Amazon flying just to and from RFD, maybe the number of hours one can accumulate is small, so you just make whatever their minimum is. It may also be that just ramping quickly up to 5 aircraft, and getting everybody trained and rolling, is a challenge. I don't think that Kalitta Charters II pays any better, nor do I expect that Mesa will, so I'm not sure why this is such an issue specifically at Southern. But certainly their requirements are low enough to cast a wide net. There has always been a lot of bitching that Atlas scheduling and crew management folks are terrible and incompetent as compared to those professionals elsewhere, so maybe it's partially a QOL issue.
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:03 pm

Some pilot questions for those of you in the know?? Can you fly for two airlines?? or are the monthly limits the only flying you can do legally?? Could you fly for a small cargo op on your days off from say UPS/Amazon carriers etc?? Thanks in advance. My airline ops experience is limited to ramp operations.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:48 pm

sunking737 wrote:
Some pilot questions for those of you in the know?? Can you fly for two airlines?? or are the monthly limits the only flying you can do legally?? Could you fly for a small cargo op on your days off from say UPS/Amazon carriers etc?? Thanks in advance. My airline ops experience is limited to ramp operations.


Can’t fly for two airlines at the same time. That screws with CASS (ability to jumpseat) and security stuff. As for flying at multiple places, every airline I’ve flown for prohibits flying for hire in your off time. Reason being is that it conflicts with your flight time/duty time limits.

I’ve heard of guys doing it on occasion but if you ever plan to move on from your current carrier, you’ll have to submit paperwork for every place you’ve flown in the previous five years. If the prospective airline sees you’ve been working at two places, that can certainly complicate things. And if you don’t disclose the side job and it comes up later somehow, that also complicates matters.
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jetmatt777
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:24 pm

Acey559 wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Some pilot questions for those of you in the know?? Can you fly for two airlines?? or are the monthly limits the only flying you can do legally?? Could you fly for a small cargo op on your days off from say UPS/Amazon carriers etc?? Thanks in advance. My airline ops experience is limited to ramp operations.


Can’t fly for two airlines at the same time. That screws with CASS (ability to jumpseat) and security stuff. As for flying at multiple places, every airline I’ve flown for prohibits flying for hire in your off time. Reason being is that it conflicts with your flight time/duty time limits.

I’ve heard of guys doing it on occasion but if you ever plan to move on from your current carrier, you’ll have to submit paperwork for every place you’ve flown in the previous five years. If the prospective airline sees you’ve been working at two places, that can certainly complicate things. And if you don’t disclose the side job and it comes up later somehow, that also complicates matters.


What about the guys who do ANG/Reserve flying? I believe they have to fly for their unit several times per month. Does the pilot submit his military time to the airline in order for them to stay legal with their line flying?
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:01 pm

wjcandee wrote:

Also, N399CM, the Aloha Cargo 767-300, came to ILN today for some kind of maint. It was just there 4/22 to 5/5 for a two-week maintenance visit, so unclear what's up with it. N395CM, which just came out of maintenance, is covering.


C-check
 
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:42 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Some pilot questions for those of you in the know?? Can you fly for two airlines?? or are the monthly limits the only flying you can do legally?? Could you fly for a small cargo op on your days off from say UPS/Amazon carriers etc?? Thanks in advance. My airline ops experience is limited to ramp operations.


Can’t fly for two airlines at the same time. That screws with CASS (ability to jumpseat) and security stuff. As for flying at multiple places, every airline I’ve flown for prohibits flying for hire in your off time. Reason being is that it conflicts with your flight time/duty time limits.

I’ve heard of guys doing it on occasion but if you ever plan to move on from your current carrier, you’ll have to submit paperwork for every place you’ve flown in the previous five years. If the prospective airline sees you’ve been working at two places, that can certainly complicate things. And if you don’t disclose the side job and it comes up later somehow, that also complicates matters.


What about the guys who do ANG/Reserve flying? I believe they have to fly for their unit several times per month. Does the pilot submit his military time to the airline in order for them to stay legal with their line flying?


I’m not current or former military, but that would be one exception. I don’t know what the details regarding military service are but it certainly is allowed and in fact protected insofar as an employer not being able to discipline or terminate based on military leave/service. I’m sure someone on here who is current or former military can give you more insight.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:23 pm

GoodRide wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

Also, N399CM, the Aloha Cargo 767-300, came to ILN today for some kind of maint. It was just there 4/22 to 5/5 for a two-week maintenance visit, so unclear what's up with it. N395CM, which just came out of maintenance, is covering.


C-check


Cool, thanks! I was thinking that the April visit was probably too short for a C-check. So 399 is gonna be there a while, then.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:25 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Last night and tonight, ABX's BWI-ILN-BWI flight has not flown. I don't know whether it's due to a mechanical issue that they have just decided to leave uncovered, or whether the flight has been dropped from the ILN network.


The flight is back in the schedule tonight, so I guess it was just an irregular situation the last two nights.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:10 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
I just got another Amazon shipment via UPS Ground. I actually wonder if our ZIP code was recently removed from UPS' list of ZIP codes that are subject to delivery area surcharges. As of May 2019, our ZIP code is still on the list. I presume this was the main reason why Amazon avoided UPS/FedEx for our ZIP code. During Prime Week we also got deliveries from both Amazon Logistics and USPS.

Amazon is building direct to final delivery building loads now, I'm sure they get a discount that would erase or nearly erase that surcharge.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:53 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
I just got another Amazon shipment via UPS Ground. I actually wonder if our ZIP code was recently removed from UPS' list of ZIP codes that are subject to delivery area surcharges. As of May 2019, our ZIP code is still on the list. I presume this was the main reason why Amazon avoided UPS/FedEx for our ZIP code. During Prime Week we also got deliveries from both Amazon Logistics and USPS.

Amazon is building direct to final delivery building loads now, I'm sure they get a discount that would erase or nearly erase that surcharge.


That’d be a weird reason to waive those surcharges. Usually they are for really rural areas worth lots of driving between deliveries. So it doesn’t matter if amazon has it nicely presorted for UPS.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:11 am

As an interesting side note, N432AX is now in service for Omni, flying as we speak to SEA from MZJ. This is one of the ex-AA passenger birds acquired by ATSG's leasing subsidiary CAM. It retired on 1/6/19 from AA, and then flew from ROW to MZJ (where Omni does MRO) on 4/1/19 for a heavy check and then to be put in passenger service with Omni. Former AA reg was N389AA. Getting the rights to all those retiring AA aircraft gave ATSG the opportunity to put one or more 767-300 with Omni as a passenger aircraft, and they have done it with this one. A lot of them, ultimately, are likely to be converted for Amazon.
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:34 pm

Could we ever see Amazon 747s or 777s?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:52 pm

Whiplash6 wrote:
Could we ever see Amazon 747s or 777s?


I do think that that might make sense if Amazon in-housed its Asia-to-US lane b/c it: (a) ramped up its Asia-to-US Fulfillment By Amazon (or whatever they call it) business; and (b) there was renewed tightness in the Pacific to US lift business, which there isn't now. It only makes sense if there's tightness in existing lift.

They did have a program (and I don't know how much they expect to grow it) whereby folks who right now might sell on, say Ebay or the Chinese commerce sites, and deliver by China Post/USPS or DHL could instead perhaps list on Amazon but in any event use their logistics capabilities to ship their stuff to the US. How this compares price/reliabilitywise with the current primary methods I don't know.

The better approach, I think, is to let Amazon slow-boat your merch (i.e. by floating it over) to their warehouses and distribute it from there as you sell on Amazon. And they apparently are entering or in that space.

But it's not as if there aren't a whole bunch of non-household-name providers that will do that. I think the fact that China Post and DHL have low, low, low rates out of China make the direct-from-China lane possible.

Or they could do what Apple did with Airborne on the initial iPhone launch: package and label individual shipments in China where packaging and labeling is cheap, to individuals and stores, then ship the labelled packages on pallets by boat or air to, say, Airborne's hub at ILN, then break 'em down and induct them at the hub. Worked like a champ and very-efficient.

The problem, as always, is the question of what would Amazon fill its planes with on the US to Asia routes? Or would it just fly East, sending stuff to Europe and its environs and then fly from there to Asia and then the US?

Within the US, I think the 767 is the right-sized aircraft for them, giving a lot of flexibility and the ability to target bypass-the-hub routes on the heaviest lanes. There's a lot of flexibility to meet demand with an increased operational tempo of the aircraft, like I think we're seeing at ABX these days. The question is whether well-maintained 30-year-old aircraft can sustain the tempo. I guess we'll see.
 
travaz
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:16 pm

I wonder how much feedstock is left in the 767-300 world. Would it would make sense for companies to start ordering new 767? I would think Boenig could keep the cost low. As of April of 19 they had 99 firm orders for 767, including the 38 Air Force Tankers. New aircraft would certainly resolve the problem of reliability. I think the smart move as WJ said is to ship via ocean containers. If they really need lift from Asia (one way) I would think they could use thier relationship with ATSG for some favorable rates on occasion. Would love to see a 777F in Prime colors.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:38 pm

travaz wrote:
I wonder how much feedstock is left in the 767-300 world. Would it would make sense for companies to start ordering new 767? I would think Boenig could keep the cost low. As of April of 19 they had 99 firm orders for 767, including the 38 Air Force Tankers. New aircraft would certainly resolve the problem of reliability. I think the smart move as WJ said is to ship via ocean containers. If they really need lift from Asia (one way) I would think they could use thier relationship with ATSG for some favorable rates on occasion. Would love to see a 777F in Prime colors.


ATSG/CAM has locked down 22 of the retiring American 767-300s. They have only "used" 3 of those so far (2 ready to go to TLV and 1 now refurbed as a pax aircraft). (Of course, they have already converted a bunch of AA aircraft not included in that number.) They have also bought a LATAM aircraft (don't know if that's gonna be a habit) and 2 retired DL ones. DL has north of 50 still in service, and several already stored. Many of the DL aircraft are low on cycles (in the low 20,000s) but high on hours (115,000-ish). This is similar to N354AA, of which IAI/Bedek is just finishing the conversion. Apparently, this poor girl required a whole lot of mechanical work, but that's sort of the point: in theory, after conversion, you end up with an aircraft that has another 20 years left in her. If the 354AA conversion proves to operate well, it opens up a lot of opportunity with the DL fleet.

The problem with the ABX 767-200s is that they were converted like 15 years ago and the question is whether they can sustain the higher tempo. Hopefully, the recent 767-300 conversions will run reliably after their post-conversion teething pains.

But nothing should run as reliably as a new airframe, which is why that's what FedEx and UPS are buying, given their anticipated operating tempo. We will see whether Amazon ultimately thinks that some portion of its fleet should be new(er?) in order to sustain a higher operational tempo. Just like FedEx and UPS have a portion of the fleet that is old, because their operation includes a bunch of flights that require a much-lower tempo.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:03 pm

Well, N432AX was running from SEA-MSJ (Japan) this afternoon, but it looks like it is diverting to ANC after starting across the Pacific. Oh, well. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE271

Descended from 32,000 feet to 15,000 when turning back, so...pressurization?
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:56 pm

USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
I just got another Amazon shipment via UPS Ground. I actually wonder if our ZIP code was recently removed from UPS' list of ZIP codes that are subject to delivery area surcharges. As of May 2019, our ZIP code is still on the list. I presume this was the main reason why Amazon avoided UPS/FedEx for our ZIP code. During Prime Week we also got deliveries from both Amazon Logistics and USPS.

Amazon is building direct to final delivery building loads now, I'm sure they get a discount that would erase or nearly erase that surcharge.


That’d be a weird reason to waive those surcharges. Usually they are for really rural areas worth lots of driving between deliveries. So it doesn’t matter if amazon has it nicely presorted for UPS.

It actually does help tremendously. Not having to sort thousands of pieces at a hub or transport it from FC to a hub to the final center it a huge advantage. In some cases you could be taking 5000 pieces out of a hub sort, which could be the difference between the sort going down on time and getting everything processed, and the sort going down late and not making the preloads in time. You save on staffing in the hub, staffing with semi drivers, and prevent possibly tens of thousands of other packages being late.

I'm an Industrial Engineer for UPS, I know the costs and savings involved.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
travaz
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:57 pm

Is that the Omni Air that just came out of Maintenance? Or the just refurbed?
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:39 pm

wjcandee wrote:
The problem with the ABX 767-200s is that they were converted like 15 years ago and the question is whether they can sustain the higher tempo. Hopefully, the recent 767-300 conversions will run reliably after their post-conversion teething pains.


And the real problem there is that the Amazon operation is keeping a full dozen of these old 762s in fairly heavy service, where they eat up airframe and engine spares. Atlas has a bunch in service for their DHL operation, but their utilization is nowhere near what you see in Amazon service. The -218BDSFs will hit cycle limits soon-ish. ABX will be able to pull other company -200s in for replacement but ATI I think doesn't have that luxury, so I'm anticipating they'll be replaced by -300s.

Source-wise, I think you're right. 767 freighter conversions are like Whose Line Is It Anyway, where the rules are made up and the hours don't matter. I am actually pretty astounded on how well teh CAM fleet is holding up.

As for 747/777 additions: well, that's a fun one. Both Atlas and Kalitta have plenty on hand to open up tranpac lines, and perhaps the recent ANC 767 rotation might tie in there. Conversion of 747 P2F is dead, and parked 744F/BCF/BDSF are pretty much nonexistent now. In fact, parked 744s are probably the source for a lot of engine parts for the CF6 767s (tying us back into the old 767s mentioned above being a sink for parts rather than a source like they normally would be at this stage of the game with just about any other aircraft). Amazon would be pretty much better off just throwing a few pallets of belly freight on PAX routes. 777 won't happen unless we actually see someone bite on the P2F program. The A330P2F prgram is a non-starter as it's barely got transatlantic range, and the wingspan is about the same as a 777 so parking a bunch at CVG might end up being... problematic.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Amazon in the future have a few bags tossed into belly cargo on shorthaul domestic passenger narrowbodies in the future.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:36 am

wjcandee wrote:
Consistent what Fify told us, N304CM is in fact now on its way to SNN and then to TLV, evening of 7/12/19.

So, the current status of conversions is as follows:

Recent conversion N367AZ (formerly N730WE) is still at ILN, where it has been since 6/18/19, after returning from paint. Conversion was finished 5/15/19.

4 aircraft in TLV:
N354AA (to be N397AZ) since 2/21/19
N830WE (to be N419AZ) since 3/13/19
N1501P (to be N409AZ) since 5/14/19
and now N304CM.



3 aircraft purchased and stored but not yet converted:
N153DL
N381AN
N379AA

1 aircraft purchased and stored and likely going as a pax aircraft to Omni
N432AX (formerly N389AA)




I’m shocked Delta’s ex Gulf Air Jets are being cargo converted from the infonI have they have around 120k hours on the clock.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:56 am

travaz wrote:
Is that the Omni Air that just came out of Maintenance? Or the just refurbed?


Just went through refurbishment/maintenance at MZJ (and presumably painting). At MZJ from 4/1/19 to 7/27/19. Was N389AA. Retired 1/6/19; to ROW 1/20/19. CAM bought it 2/15/19 and sent to MZJ on 4/1/19.

I will be curious to see what the post-heavy-maintenance gremlins were. Cracked windshield? Pressurization issue? If it was just an ETOPS no-go issue, probably wouldn't have to descend to 15,000 for the trip back to ANC. They dumped fuel, so it wasn't a must-land-right-now kind of emergency. (After SR111, smoke and such generally merits an overweight landing.)
Last edited by wjcandee on Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:04 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I’m shocked Delta’s ex Gulf Air Jets are being cargo converted from the infonI have they have around 120k hours on the clock.


Yeah, 115k to 120k+, depending on when they were retired. But low-20k cycles, which is also important. CAM is running their 767-200s to the LOV on cycles, but they are much-lower on hours.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:11 am

Spacepope wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
The problem with the ABX 767-200s is that they were converted like 15 years ago and the question is whether they can sustain the higher tempo. Hopefully, the recent 767-300 conversions will run reliably after their post-conversion teething pains.


And the real problem there is that the Amazon operation is keeping a full dozen of these old 762s in fairly heavy service, where they eat up airframe and engine spares. Atlas has a bunch in service for their DHL operation, but their utilization is nowhere near what you see in Amazon service. The -218BDSFs will hit cycle limits soon-ish. ABX will be able to pull other company -200s in for replacement but ATI I think doesn't have that luxury, so I'm anticipating they'll be replaced by -300s.


Remember that Amazon has dry-leased 12 767-200s from CAM, 6 at ABX and 6 at ATI, and just extended the leases on them to 2023, with an option to 2026, so apparently they have been doing fine on the former tempo and are anticipated to have enough cycles to make it to the end of the lease without hitting the LOV. [The 8 767-300s are dry-leased to 2026-2027, with an option for 2029-2030. The 10 additional 767-300s will be dry-leased for 10 years, with a 3 year renewal option.]

ABX does protect routes with its other aircraft when necessary, and it does appear that at the present they have more missions than they can handle with just the six. So, although they didn't get more aircraft for Amazon, they may have been given more flying that allows them to picking up a lot of the down time on their underutilized-a-few-months-ago remaining fleet. In other words, I do sometimes see more than 6 ABX aircraft in the air at any one time on Amazon trips. AMES is very-well-versed in the 767, and they seem to be able to source what they need to source in order to keep the -200s flying. Like you say, we'll have to see how it goes. Probably at the end of the existing leases, they will be done or close-to-done in daily service. They could stick around like N798AX has, to function as an occasional spare as it runs out the very-few remaining cycles to its LOV. (I often measure how well the ABX operation is running by how often they have to press 798 into service. It was weekly or semi-monthly previously; now it seems to be significantly-more-often.)

Also, FWIW, at the moment there are a good number of 767s in the desert that (probably??) aren't going anywhere ever again and could be a fair source of used parts. Fortunately, the model is still in production, which also helps when parts are needed. Unlike the MD80/90s.
Last edited by wjcandee on Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:40 am, edited 4 times in total.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2146
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:18 am

wjcandee wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
The problem with the ABX 767-200s is that they were converted like 15 years ago and the question is whether they can sustain the higher tempo. Hopefully, the recent 767-300 conversions will run reliably after their post-conversion teething pains.


And the real problem there is that the Amazon operation is keeping a full dozen of these old 762s in fairly heavy service, where they eat up airframe and engine spares. Atlas has a bunch in service for their DHL operation, but their utilization is nowhere near what you see in Amazon service. The -218BDSFs will hit cycle limits soon-ish. ABX will be able to pull other company -200s in for replacement but ATI I think doesn't have that luxury, so I'm anticipating they'll be replaced by -300s.


Remember that Amazon has dry-leased 12 767-200s from CAM, 6 at ABX and 6 at ATI, and just extended the leases on them, so apparently they have been doing fine on the former tempo. ABX does subservice routes with its other aircraft when necessary, and it does appear that at the present they have more missions than they can handle with just the six. So, although they didn't get more aircraft for Amazon, they may have been given more flying that allows them to picking up a lot of the down time on their underutilized-a-few-months-ago remaining fleet. In other words, I do sometimes see more than 6 ABX aircraft in the air at any one time on Amazon trips. AMES is very-well-versed in the 767, and they seem to be able to source what they need to source in order to keep the -200s flying. Like you say, we'll have to see how it goes. Probably at the end of the existing leases, they will be done or close-to-done in daily service. They could stick around like N798AX has, to function as an occasional spare as it runs out the very-few remaining cycles to its LOV. (I often measure how well the ABX operation is running by how often they have to press 798 into service. It was weekly or bi-weekly previously; now it seems to be significantly-more-often.)

Also, FWIW, at the moment there are a good number of 767s in the desert that (probably??) aren't going anywhere ever again and could be a fair source of used parts. Fortunately, the model is still in production, which also helps when parts are needed. Unlike the MD80/90s.


I follow this thread intermittently, but this touches one of the questions I've had. With Amazon running its fleet pretty significantly, does the model of using converted freighters work effectively? Certainly at the beginning its a much lower capital cost, but as Amazon Prime Air grows, is it sustainable? The feedstock of 767s that can operate at high utilization as freighters is, I suspect, mostly gone.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:24 am

JBS: Hard to say. Remember that CAM has locked up almost every 767-300 that American retires as it retires, which is at least 20. And at least 3 of the additional 10 for Amazon won't be from that group. And we may see some more DL ones bought by CAM, too, beyond the 2 it already acquired.

But it may be that the higher-tempo operations merit a portion of the fleet being new. It also may be that they won't grow much beyond 50 in the 767 size, and the growth will be in the 737s. But again I think there are a lot of factors going forward that are unpredictable for Amazon.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:46 am

wjcandee wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I’m shocked Delta’s ex Gulf Air Jets are being cargo converted from the infonI have they have around 120k hours on the clock.


Yeah, 115k to 120k+, depending on when they were retired. But low-20k cycles, which is also important. CAM is running their 767-200s to the LOV on cycles, but they are much-lower on hours.


N153DL TT 115364/TC 21516
N1501P TT 115260/TC 21644

when they were parked at SBD.

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