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KCVGSpotter
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:01 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Anybody got any photos of N360CM after it recently spent just a couple of days at ROW. I'm assuming that that had something to do with her appearance, but perhaps it was just for some kind of quick mechanical thing. That seems unlikely, though.


Still in the ex Air Incheon livery.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:39 pm

KCVGSpotter wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Anybody got any photos of N360CM after it recently spent just a couple of days at ROW. I'm assuming that that had something to do with her appearance, but perhaps it was just for some kind of quick mechanical thing. That seems unlikely, though.


Still in the ex Air Incheon livery.


Huh. Thanks!
 
Springs1816
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:23 pm

Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:31 pm

It's not possible to know. In six years, who knows even what e-commerce will look like? Because Amazon has dared to venture into groceries, the UFCWU and its allies are constantly planting articles about the "horrors" of working there (just like they did with Walmart), and Amazon is now a political target. It seems like at least once a week in the WSJ, there is some article about some new alleged transgression, etc., etc. It's all an effort to knock it off its perch. From Darling to Dummkopf in one easy move. So we'll see.

Meanwhile, all my Amazon packages are arriving promptly, whereas 3 recent Walmart orders are each stuck in a trailer that departed the warehouse but has yet to be processed at whatever FedEx Ground location it is supposed to be processed through (one from PA, one from Davies, FL, etc.). One order has been in such a trailer for 3 days now, still waiting to be processed at origin. I ordered on the 1st. It's now the sixth and the products aren't even moving yet on their 4 day trip to me. Other orders from the 1st at Walmart haven't even been packed and "shipped" yet. Walmart had this exact same problem in Peak several years ago when it was using FedEx Smartpost heavily -- trailers full of product pulled away from the loading dock at the warehouse, but not making it in the door of the origin Smartpost processing center for up to a week. Looks like this same problem is repeating nationwide with Fedex Ground.

But I'm supposed to hate Amazon, according to the media. Screw them: Amazon spends the money to get it done right over and over and over.

In a shorter window (i.e. next couple of years), you're gonna see more 767-300s added, and they are experimenting with the 737-800 for thinner routes, having been sold by GECAS on ordering a bunch of them. That program is a goatrope, with contractor Southern Air not being able to staff things correctly, just like their parent Atlas is unable to do, only worse. Also, I really have questions about how prudent it is to use such a limited airframe in an environment of growing volume. So maybe we'll see 20 737-800s running through CVG, and maybe we won't. The 767-300 program is successful and likely to expand a bit more.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:48 pm

wjcandee wrote:
It's not possible to know. In six years, who knows even what e-commerce will look like? Because Amazon has dared to venture into groceries, the UFCWU and its allies are constantly planting articles about the "horrors" of working there (just like they did with Walmart), and Amazon is now a political target. It seems like at least once a week in the WSJ, there is some article about some new alleged transgression, etc., etc. It's all an effort to knock it off its perch. From Darling to Dummkopf in one easy move. So we'll see.

Meanwhile, all my Amazon packages are arriving promptly, whereas 3 recent Walmart orders are each stuck in a trailer that departed the warehouse but has yet to be processed at whatever FedEx Ground location it is supposed to be processed through (one from PA, one from Davies, FL, etc.). One order has been in such a trailer for 3 days now, still waiting to be processed at origin. I ordered on the 1st. It's now the sixth and the products aren't even moving yet on their 4 day trip to me. Other orders from the 1st at Walmart haven't even been packed and "shipped" yet. Walmart had this exact same problem in Peak several years ago when it was using FedEx Smartpost heavily -- trailers full of product pulled away from the loading dock at the warehouse, but not making it in the door of the origin Smartpost processing center for up to a week. Looks like this same problem is repeating nationwide with Fedex Ground.

But I'm supposed to hate Amazon, according to the media. Screw them: Amazon spends the money to get it done right over and over and over.

In a shorter window (i.e. next couple of years), you're gonna see more 767-300s added, and they are experimenting with the 737-800 for thinner routes, having been sold by GECAS on ordering a bunch of them. That program is a goatrope, with contractor Southern Air not being able to staff things correctly, just like their parent Atlas is unable to do, only worse. Also, I really have questions about how prudent it is to use such a limited airframe in an environment of growing volume. So maybe we'll see 20 737-800s running through CVG, and maybe we won't. The 767-300 program is successful and likely to expand a bit more.


If Atlas would pony up and pay an industry rate, they wouldn't have these issues they're having today. They just don't want to do it, and it's going to sink the company
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:30 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Oh the fun of peak, and we haven't even had a severe weather event so far.


Indeed. And the Amazon Air fleet seems to be moving nicely.

The good news from that article is that multiple other trucking companies are literally giving those drivers bus (and even air) tickets to their orientation centers and offering to put them to work, with a signing bonus, within 2-3 days. Experienced long-haul truck drivers are in high demand right now, Peak or no Peak, so they will likely get screwed for their last paycheck but at least can find new employment quickly, and maybe some signing benefits to offset some of what they lost.

And FWIW, WalMart also uses JB Hunt DCS as part of its to-the-store private network in addition to the two that you mentioned.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:28 am

Folks, this is the Amazon fleet thread. Please try to keep on subject.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is the Amazon fleet thread. Please try to keep on subject.


On the previous page of the thread, we kind of had a question for you. There was a discussion about whether the CF6-80A fleet -- the engines used on the ABX/ATI 767-200 freighters -- were aging enough and/or become scarce enough that those aircraft might suffer the fate of, say, DL's MD80s in the near future, either due to engine reliability or availability of parts or expense of engine overhaul. One of the regular contributors to the thread pointed out that 21Air, for example, was having engine issues on both of its 767-200 aircraft, which were both fresh out of C-check, and one was grounded for about a week for engine problems right after 21Air took over the Aeromex work from ABX. I pointed out that the in-service fleet of 767-200s worldwide now numbers about 70, and 12 of the ABX/ATI 767-200s still had 5 years left on their dry-leases to Amazon. I thought that DL was doing the overhaul work on the ABX/ATI CF6-80As, which one of the DL mech's confirmed in a later post, also mentioning that DL did the overhauls on ABX -80C2s. So although clearly the long-time (and highly-regarded) engine service provider to ATSG will do (and is doing) overhauls for them, at one point does an overhaul become uneconomical, either because it becomes too expensive and/or a full overhaul is going to produce an engine that has far more time available than will be appropriate for the expected useful life of the airframe, without a sufficient secondary market for that engine if it outlasts the airframe (i.e. nobody's going to want that engine, with its time left, after you put the airframe out to pasture)? That's a lot of questions in one, but I figure that you're the guy to give us some perspective on it if you're willing. As I told the DL mech, I don't have enough understanding of the "levels" of overhaul to know whether you can basically overhaul it enough to get you 5 more years, for example, without having to completely overhaul it.

I might not even be asking the right questions, so we would appreciate your perspective.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:00 pm

Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.
 
Phoenix757767
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:09 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.

Engine overhaul is separate from a C-check, C’s are airframe maintenance and component changes. And Delta’s engine problems are on the MD90s, not 80 family as the engine for the 90 only has one vendor who does the overhaul and it’s in Christchurch, NZ.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:55 pm

Phoenix757767 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.

Engine overhaul is separate from a C-check, C’s are airframe maintenance and component changes. And Delta’s engine problems are on the MD90s, not 80 family as the engine for the 90 only has one vendor who does the overhaul and it’s in Christchurch, NZ.


Understood that engine overhaul is separate from a C-check. My point was that the frames had been C-checked, but the engine reliability apparently wasn't there. I'm well-aware of the sole-source vendor on the MD90 engines, which counterintuitively is the result of DL negotiating prices down. Is it the case then that the MD80 engines have no parts availability issues? My impression was that support is dwindling and expense there is high, too.
Last edited by wjcandee on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:56 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.


Huh. I did not know that.
 
Phoenix757767
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:07 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Phoenix757767 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:

Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.

Engine overhaul is separate from a C-check, C’s are airframe maintenance and component changes. And Delta’s engine problems are on the MD90s, not 80 family as the engine for the 90 only has one vendor who does the overhaul and it’s in Christchurch, NZ.


Understood that engine overhaul is separate from a C-check. My point was that the frames had been C-checked, but the engine reliability apparently wasn't there. I'm well-aware of the sole-source vendor on the MD90 engines, which counterintuitively is the result of DL negotiating prices down. Is it the case then that the MD80 engines have no parts availability issues? My impression was that support is dwindling and expense there is high, too.

Delta overhauls it’s own 80 family engines. They are still flying and will be for at least another year or so. From what I’ve heard there is no engine parts issues yet.
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:19 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.


I’d be surprised if it gets that big. The more warehouses/DCs that are built the less you need a massive air network. Sooner or later Amazon will realize flying toilet paper from PHX-CVG-ONT, then trucked to a DLA location can be done much easier.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:46 pm

Phoenix757767 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Phoenix757767 wrote:
Engine overhaul is separate from a C-check, C’s are airframe maintenance and component changes. And Delta’s engine problems are on the MD90s, not 80 family as the engine for the 90 only has one vendor who does the overhaul and it’s in Christchurch, NZ.


Understood that engine overhaul is separate from a C-check. My point was that the frames had been C-checked, but the engine reliability apparently wasn't there. I'm well-aware of the sole-source vendor on the MD90 engines, which counterintuitively is the result of DL negotiating prices down. Is it the case then that the MD80 engines have no parts availability issues? My impression was that support is dwindling and expense there is high, too.

Delta overhauls it’s own 80 family engines. They are still flying and will be for at least another year or so. From what I’ve heard there is no engine parts issues yet.


I appreciate the knowledgeable response. I thought that DL was buying up the AA engines to extract useful life-limited parts, and junking the rest.

Regardless, the real question is about the CF6, because that's what's relevant to the Amazon fleet thread; the other discussion was just off an example I used.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:50 pm

CALMSP wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.


I’d be surprised if it gets that big. The more warehouses/DCs that are built the less you need a massive air network. Sooner or later Amazon will realize flying toilet paper from PHX-CVG-ONT, then trucked to a DLA location can be done much easier.


Is that what they're doing? I don't have insight to that information.

Does toilet paper typically fly? Do items from PHX-ONT fly through CVG rather than being trucked? What percentage of their total domestic volume that travels by air, flies on Amazon Air? In any event, as they bring a larger percentage of whatever-sized air business in-house, wouldn't that sustain a larger network? Isn't there a point where the capital and real-estate expense of yet another DC (and the inventory carry expense of maintaining 50 widgets in 50 locations rather than 1 widget in one location) is greater than the operating expense of moving some items by air? Do you think that Amazon is calculating what items, due to volume sold and cost-per-item, are better off in the maximum number of nearby facilities and which items, for the same reason, are more-efficiently managed from fewer locations?
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:15 pm

Phoenix757767 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.

Engine overhaul is separate from a C-check, C’s are airframe maintenance and component changes. And Delta’s engine problems are on the MD90s, not 80 family as the engine for the 90 only has one vendor who does the overhaul and it’s in Christchurch, NZ.


Not to mention, there's a decent chance some of those 88's end up flying elsewhere down the road, be it cargo or passenger operations. Someone will still do it, but maybe for a huge price.
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:48 pm

Anecdotal to be sure, but during my time at ATI I would notice a fair amount of diapers being loaded and unloaded from the pallets/containers. Also consumer electronics such as TVs were frequent on our aircraft. Most items were of course in cardboard boxes so I couldn’t tell what they were, but of things I could see I noticed a fair amount of the above. Again, very anecdotal as I never saw the vast majority of what we carried. But I think that whatever algorithm Amazon developed would ship whatever makes sense and didn’t specifically exclude items. At least at that time. Things may have changed as the network matures.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:47 pm

CALMSP wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Springs1816 wrote:
Quick question and maybe it was brought up before but this is a lot of posts to go through. When the full south buildout at CVG is done around 2026 what do you all think the Amazon fleet will look like? Not what carriers but plane types and how many. Is it even possible to know that far out? Any guesses?


Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.


I’d be surprised if it gets that big. The more warehouses/DCs that are built the less you need a massive air network. Sooner or later Amazon will realize flying toilet paper from PHX-CVG-ONT, then trucked to a DLA location can be done much easier.


It may not, you could be right, but that was the stated goal. It's one of the reasons they are increasing ramp space so much at CVG. Some of what they do is move items from DC to DC via air.
Frankly it think it would have been easier just to make UPS a wholly owned subsidiary and ship everything via that. All infrastructure, employees and expertise already in place.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:27 pm

wjcandee wrote:
CALMSP wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:

Amazons fleet goal has been stated publicly to be 100 aircraft, most 767-300.


I’d be surprised if it gets that big. The more warehouses/DCs that are built the less you need a massive air network. Sooner or later Amazon will realize flying toilet paper from PHX-CVG-ONT, then trucked to a DLA location can be done much easier.


Is that what they're doing? I don't have insight to that information.

Does toilet paper typically fly? Do items from PHX-ONT fly through CVG rather than being trucked? What percentage of their total domestic volume that travels by air, flies on Amazon Air? In any event, as they bring a larger percentage of whatever-sized air business in-house, wouldn't that sustain a larger network? Isn't there a point where the capital and real-estate expense of yet another DC (and the inventory carry expense of maintaining 50 widgets in 50 locations rather than 1 widget in one location) is greater than the operating expense of moving some items by air? Do you think that Amazon is calculating what items, due to volume sold and cost-per-item, are better off in the maximum number of nearby facilities and which items, for the same reason, are more-efficiently managed from fewer locations?

Amazon stocks most demanded items in an area and then stocks by coverage. So maybe they put a bunch of iPhones in BDL3 because they can hit as far south as Philly and as far north as Maine with ground.

They’ll absorb the cost of having to ship a UCONN hat to Utah knowing if they stock them in BDL3 their costs for shopping are slim.

They’ll also “turn on” certain FCs at times where they all of a sudden surge to make up for shortfalls at other FCs or rid themselves of excess product. Their supply chain is complicated and fascinating
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:57 pm

I know Inland Empire-PHX is typically trucked, not sure about the reverse. Sometimes even when the local FCs have the item in stock they still ship from the Inland Empire (this is especially common with LGB3 vs. PHX6).
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:24 am

ILNFlyer wrote:
Frankly it think it would have been easier just to make UPS a wholly owned subsidiary and ship everything via that. All infrastructure, employees and expertise already in place.


Much more fun this way. Also can reinvent the wheel with data analytics if they want, which they are doing in every other part of their operation. They are the most data-driven company anywhere in this space, and they have to feel they can start from scratch and figure out a lot of new ways to do things.

But not fly planes, so that's why they hire experienced contractors to do that. ABX was an obvious choice for their experiment, because they had people with experience in operating a time-sensitive express operation on a much larger scale than Amazon would even imagine. At one point, their predecessor, Airborne Express, was running around a hundred aircraft through ILN per night. Of course, we know that toxic labor relations bollixed up that opportunity, but the fact is that they are a strong provider, as now is ATI.

Anyway, like I say, much more fun, at least for me, this way.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:15 am

wjcandee wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Frankly it think it would have been easier just to make UPS a wholly owned subsidiary and ship everything via that. All infrastructure, employees and expertise already in place.


Much more fun this way. Also can reinvent the wheel with data analytics if they want, which they are doing in every other part of their operation. They are the most data-driven company anywhere in this space, and they have to feel they can start from scratch and figure out a lot of new ways to do things.

But not fly planes, so that's why they hire experienced contractors to do that. ABX was an obvious choice for their experiment, because they had people with experience in operating a time-sensitive express operation on a much larger scale than Amazon would even imagine. At one point, their predecessor, Airborne Express, was running around a hundred aircraft through ILN per night. Of course, we know that toxic labor relations bollixed up that opportunity, but the fact is that they are a strong provider, as now is ATI.

Anyway, like I say, much more fun, at least for me, this way.


There is also the fact that Amazon is reasonably anti-union and UPS is heavily unionized.

You’d also have a significant loss of business at UPS as some UPS customers would not want Amazon knowing their package flows.

In building their own networks they also have added significant flexibility and resiliency. UPS goes on strike? We’ll haul it ourselves and have USPS or AMZL deliver it. Does USPS’s delivery quality in a specific area suck? We’ll ship via UPS or AMZL to that area. Finally I’m sure some package sizes and weights are cheaper in one system than the other. From my personal experience the heavier stuff is almost always USPS on the final mile.

Amazon has so much more resiliency than any of their competitors who just pack it and hand it off to their carrier of choice, who might not be having a good week. (See the previous discussion of Walmart and Fedex Ground.)
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:50 pm

Decided 6 grandkids were old enough to have a decent tool kit, and wanted 4 star grade hand tools and a soft carrier. All two day shipping from Seattle area and a lot from Jackson Florida and Illinois. I was not allowed to order 6 of several items, and will have to wait (x days?) and reorder. Somehow I feel I broke the Amazon supply chain. (actually sellers who use Amazon). One order, coming in four packages via USPS (3), one UPS.

res the limitation on several items to no more than three. I was ordering items in all cases which were listed at or near the top. Really big sellers would seem to carry stock by the hundreds, but obviously this in not the case. Relatively small sellers are carrying a lot of the load, and computers find the nearest, so many items had to fly to make it in two days. Those small sellers are important to Amazon for a lot of their top merchandise.
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:54 pm

Acey559 wrote:
Anecdotal to be sure, but during my time at ATI I would notice a fair amount of diapers being loaded and unloaded from the pallets/containers. Also consumer electronics such as TVs were frequent on our aircraft. Most items were of course in cardboard boxes so I couldn’t tell what they were, but of things I could see I noticed a fair amount of the above. Again, very anecdotal as I never saw the vast majority of what we carried. But I think that whatever algorithm Amazon developed would ship whatever makes sense and didn’t specifically exclude items. At least at that time. Things may have changed as the network matures.

Ask any parents with sufficient finances and they will tell you diapers on auto-order are a godsend. Rate of consumption is pretty much constant, getting them auto-delivered often avoids trips to the store at inconvenient times, and you never want to be caught out so you're willing to pay the going rate. Thus it's easy to see why there is demand. I guess the real question is why they aren't being trucked rather than flown.
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SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:27 pm

With the worlds second largest distribution center going up near Syracuse, NY , anyone see chances of an amazon aircraft getting scheduled into SYR?
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Acey559
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
Anecdotal to be sure, but during my time at ATI I would notice a fair amount of diapers being loaded and unloaded from the pallets/containers. Also consumer electronics such as TVs were frequent on our aircraft. Most items were of course in cardboard boxes so I couldn’t tell what they were, but of things I could see I noticed a fair amount of the above. Again, very anecdotal as I never saw the vast majority of what we carried. But I think that whatever algorithm Amazon developed would ship whatever makes sense and didn’t specifically exclude items. At least at that time. Things may have changed as the network matures.

Ask any parents with sufficient finances and they will tell you diapers on auto-order are a godsend. Rate of consumption is pretty much constant, getting them auto-delivered often avoids trips to the store at inconvenient times, and you never want to be caught out so you're willing to pay the going rate. Thus it's easy to see why there is demand. I guess the real question is why they aren't being trucked rather than flown.


I completely agree. My wife and I did the diaper subscription and moved on to the pull-up subscription for our daughter. And we’ll be back at it again when our son is born next month. I certainly couldn’t give you a good answer as to why they’re carrying what they are, and perhaps the model will evolve as the business builds and evolves, I just found it interesting how often we carried diapers on the airplanes.
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USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
Anecdotal to be sure, but during my time at ATI I would notice a fair amount of diapers being loaded and unloaded from the pallets/containers. Also consumer electronics such as TVs were frequent on our aircraft. Most items were of course in cardboard boxes so I couldn’t tell what they were, but of things I could see I noticed a fair amount of the above. Again, very anecdotal as I never saw the vast majority of what we carried. But I think that whatever algorithm Amazon developed would ship whatever makes sense and didn’t specifically exclude items. At least at that time. Things may have changed as the network matures.

Ask any parents with sufficient finances and they will tell you diapers on auto-order are a godsend. Rate of consumption is pretty much constant, getting them auto-delivered often avoids trips to the store at inconvenient times, and you never want to be caught out so you're willing to pay the going rate. Thus it's easy to see why there is demand. I guess the real question is why they aren't being trucked rather than flown.


I’d guess that these are “filler items”. The plane is going to fly either way. It doesn’t matter, if its only half full of items that the only way to get them there on time is to fly them. Amazon knows how much empty space there will be, and moves the fulfillment of diapers from one end of the spoke to the other. Diapers are the freight equivalent of standby or non rev passengers.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:24 pm

Acey559 wrote:
I just found it interesting how often we carried diapers on the airplanes.

How long before someone uses this line to make a joke about the pilots? :biggrin:
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:41 pm

Interesting mid-Peak development: ABX sent Amazon-leased N749AX today (12/11) to GSO. That's where ABX has been sending a lot of its aircraft recently for overhaul (at HAECO Americas, formerly TIMCO). The last C-check on this aircraft was 1.5 years ago, and they generally go in about every 2 years, so it's interesting that it would go in now, in the middle of Peak. I'm assuming that its higher recent level of utilization mandated that move, which one otherwise wouldn't plan to have happen in the middle of Peak. Indeed, both Atlas and the ATSG carriers had been moving their aircraft through HMVs on a regular basis outside of Peak in an apparent plan to have them all available for Peak.

The ATSG carriers generally have AMES service their aircraft at ILN, but 7 out of 18 HMVs in the past 2 years for ABX have been done by HAECO at GSO, presumably because ILN is buried in work, including these days work for Atlas, Delta and United on their 767s.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:44 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Interesting mid-Peak development: ABX sent Amazon-leased N749AX today (12/11) to GSO. That's where ABX has been sending a lot of its aircraft recently for overhaul (at HAECO Americas, formerly TIMCO). The last C-check on this aircraft was 1.5 years ago, and they generally go in about every 2 years, so it's interesting that it would go in now, in the middle of Peak. I'm assuming that its higher recent level of utilization mandated that move, which one otherwise wouldn't plan to have happen in the middle of Peak. Indeed, both Atlas and the ATSG carriers had been moving their aircraft through HMVs on a regular basis outside of Peak in an apparent plan to have them all available for Peak.

The ATSG carriers generally have AMES service their aircraft at ILN, but 7 out of 18 HMVs in the past 2 years for ABX have been done by HAECO at GSO, presumably because ILN is buried in work, including these days work for Atlas, Delta and United on their 767s.


Maybe for a quickie? Looks like it had an HMV 18 months ago.

In any case, ABX has plenty of 762 spares they can pull on to fill in.
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WeatherPilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:38 am

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
With the worlds second largest distribution center going up near Syracuse, NY , anyone see chances of an amazon aircraft getting scheduled into SYR?


I’d say definitely. Why build such a huge warehouse if you aren’t going to take advantage of your own efficiencies.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:55 am

Space: Yeah... 18 months = 1.5 years. I wouldn't think a quickie would go there, but stranger things have happened, I guess.

Looks to me like they're not flush with 762 spares at the moment. 740AX is in c-check at ILN, 798AX (the usual spare) is in use, they've taken on a UPS 762 route for Peak, etc. Looks like they're using 312AA, which is usually mostly-military, as the substitute. Have one more aircraft out of service, and I think it may be hard to cover.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:12 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
I know Inland Empire-PHX is typically trucked, not sure about the reverse. Sometimes even when the local FCs have the item in stock they still ship from the Inland Empire (this is especially common with LGB3 vs. PHX6).

Most of their ground moves are done by asset based carriers. So they bring a full load between FCs and then bring an empty or another load back. It balances equipment and gives them the ability to use local drivers more on demand. Almost certainly they are moving products both ways.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:28 am

Amazon moved N5179A from CVG-RFD today, presumably to put it into service. That's the fifth 737-800BCF -- one more for Southern to have difficulty staffing.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:32 am

And tonight, I saw something I haven't specifically seen before, although I am sure it has happened:

Amazon had ATI ferry into RFD with a 767-300 (N419AZ) and protect the evening Southern flight from RFD-TPA. Given how expensive that will be, ending up with a 763 out of place during Peak that then has to be ferried back into position, I highly-doubt they're doing it because of high volume RFD-TPA. Odds are that's a Southern failure of some kind that Amazon had to have ATI cover. With a fifth aircraft just added, extra volume should be able to be covered with additional 737-800 flights -- if Southern had the people to staff them.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:41 am

So upthread it noted that the planned fleet is 100, nearly all 767's. This peak season how many are flying? I'm guessing in the high 50's but could be way off.

Amazon's decision to go ahead and pay state sales tax means that most cities will have big warehouses, the old mail order offset of shipping cost for no sales tax is basically gone. I am sure Amazon knows to the cent the cheapest way to stock & ship each item. Notre Dame caps are probably in a number of warehouses, but only Portland has OSU Beaver jerseys.

I still cannot get over seeing USPS trucks out and about on Sundays, not in my wildest dreams.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:04 am

How many planes?

18 dry-leased at Atlas. All 767-300s.
5 (4 in service) 737-800s at Southern.
6 767-200s dry-leased at ABX, plus 1 ABX aircraft additional on routes.
6 767-200s dry-leased at ATI.
15 767-300s dry-leased at ATI, plus 1 spare/active in service during Peak (N360CM).


So 45 767s dry-leased, plus call it 2 from airline fleets also right now. One more almost done this year, which probably won't quite make it by 12/31. Recently-back from TLV and not yet painted (409AZ). Four more 767-300s coming next year, at a minimum.

And 4 737-800s, plus one more that just went into service. Southern is having trouble staffing them, so we'll see what happens with that program.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:25 am

Please refresh my memory, Amazon owns these jets, leases them to the companies listed for Crew, Mx. coverage??
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:49 am

wjcandee wrote:
How many planes?

18 dry-leased at Atlas. All 767-300s.
5 (4 in service) 737-800s at Southern.
6 767-200s dry-leased at ABX, plus 1 ABX aircraft additional on routes.
6 767-200s dry-leased at ATI.
15 767-300s dry-leased at ATI, plus 1 spare/active in service during Peak (N360CM).


So 45 767s dry-leased, plus call it 2 from airline fleets also right now. One more almost done this year, which probably won't quite make it by 12/31. Recently-back from TLV and not yet painted (409AZ). Four more 767-300s coming next year, at a minimum.

And 4 737-800s, plus one more that just went into service. Southern is having trouble staffing them, so we'll see what happens with that program.


Thank you for the great information.

It's a big fleet considering it didn't exist some 5 years ago.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:22 pm

sunking737 wrote:
Please refresh my memory, Amazon owns these jets, leases them to the companies listed for Crew, Mx. coverage??


An Amazon affiliate dry-leases these aircraft from one of a couple of Atlas leasing subsidiaries (Titan/Andromeda) and from an ATSG leasing subsidiary, CAM. The leasing companies and/or investors own the aircraft.

The Amazon affiliate hires Atlas, ABX, and ATI to operate the aircraft.

The 737-800s are dry-leased from AWAS and "operated" by Southern.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:14 pm

wjcandee wrote:
The 737-800s are dry-leased from AWAS and "operated" by Southern.


GECAS. And isn't Atlas 17 now? (1217)
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
I just found it interesting how often we carried diapers on the airplanes.

How long before someone uses this line to make a joke about the pilots? :biggrin:


Well, once the mandatory retirement age gets lifted to 80...
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:16 pm

MO11 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
The 737-800s are dry-leased from AWAS and "operated" by Southern.


GECAS. And isn't Atlas 17 now? (1217)


Correct. Brain cramp. GECAS. GECAS. GECAS. AWAS probably couldn't have sold them this bag of crap.

It's 18 aircraft in terms of routings, but I'm not sure whether they replaced the lost aircraft with a new dry-lease of one of the spares, or just basically charter one of the spares to cover the route. One of the spares, in Peak, is running an Amazon route and the other two are working for others.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:37 pm

Re: the Kalitta and Atlas discussion from a few days ago.

The Kalitta and Atlas 747s are flying USPS freight containerized in FedEx containers, with FedEx flight numbers. Not USPS flights as in the past.
They are considered seasonal wet-leases. So far it looks like 5 are active with 4 on reserve, possibly for next week's heaviest volumes.
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:16 pm

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4 reports N379AA (around 103,000 hours and 17,000 cycles in May) is headed to TLV today for conversion for CAM.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:54 pm

Skyliners might have jumped the gun on this a little bit. I don't see that the aircraft actually moved. We can see what our friend in TLV, Yochai, thinks, and he can confirm when it lands. It's not uncommon for these aircraft to be scheduled and then to take a few days to actually move as various issues crop up in preparation for the ferry. This is particularly the case when they're leaving directly from ROW as opposed to ILN. I had figured that this aircraft would be moving sometime around the 15th, so this is basically consistent with that.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:11 am

Why dry-lease frames and then contract for crews, MX, and insurance, rather than wet-lease at the volume of cargo that Amazon moves? Is there a breakeven point at which the cost of contract mgmt for (dry lease + crew + MX + insurance) is less than the cost of (ACMI wetlease)? Assuming there is such a breakeven point (or else Amazon wouldn't be doing it), what metric is used for the breakeven point... cost per ton/mile? Is the breakeven influenced by NB vs. WB frames?

At my former NB combi operator, we dry-leased then contracted for CMI because it was considerably less expensive, but we only operated a few frames.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:52 am

WP: There are a lot of things that get baked into the pie. Dry-leasing gives Amazon control over the frames and the ability to move the operation of one or more of them to another carrier through a termination-for-convenience clause in the CMI agreement, which one can exercise if the carrier, like Atlas, isn't getting the job done. The dry-lease also really makes the whole thing financially-viable for the lessor/operator. That is, Atlas can secure a firm commitment from Amazon for X years of dry-leasing the aircraft, and finance the purchase and conversion off of that commitment, but give Amazon the flexibility, which it would be insane not to want, of moving the aircraft if, as it turns out, the carrier isn't operating satisfactorily. The arrangement puts the capital risk on Amazon, not the operator, and the performance risk onto the operator. Lots more aspects of this, but those are probably the primary ones.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2019

Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:55 am

wjcandee wrote:
Skyliners might have jumped the gun on this a little bit. I don't see that the aircraft actually moved. We can see what our friend in TLV, Yochai, thinks, and he can confirm when it lands. It's not uncommon for these aircraft to be scheduled and then to take a few days to actually move as various issues crop up in preparation for the ferry. This is particularly the case when they're leaving directly from ROW as opposed to ILN. I had figured that this aircraft would be moving sometime around the 15th, so this is basically consistent with that.


And N379AA is now en route from ROW-SNN, just a little later than planned, which isn't unusual. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N379AA

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