Please continue from last year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1385587

Thanks, atcsundevil!

Let me wish everyone here a very happy and healthy New Year!

For those who are following Amazon Air and the airlines and fleets that serve it, there should be many interesting and exciting things happening in 2019!

Happy New Year to all! I look forward to another year of great dialogue and information!

Happy new year to everyone, this year looks to really action packed for Amazon with the introduction of 10 more 767s into the fleet.

Happy New Year to all. I look forward to all the growth with Amazon and I'll do my best to keep you all up to date on the happenings at ONT.

So two of the recently-converted CAM aircraft that were assigned to ATI, N376AN and N373AA had been doing some Latin America service and some UPS for Peak. After Christmas, both took a breather, with the exception of a little Latin America work. What's up with them now is interesting.

There have been rumors about ATI doing some medium-term UPS work post-Peak while UPS waits for the bunch of aircraft it has ordered new from Boeing (and trains more UPS pilots). It's not quite post-Peak yet because volumes post-Christmas actually stay high as people return and replace items received as gifts. Most returns go by ground. (Amazon, for example, primarily uses UPS Ground for returns.) The post-Christmas air volume is different from the pre-Christmas air volume, of course, despite the high total still-Peak volumes into mid-January. So there may be a place for very-temporary air service at UPS for the moment, or what I'm seeing may mean that the rumors are true and we're gonna see ATI flying two aircraft for UPS for a while.

376AN ferried to MCO today and flew MCO-PHL tonight. Similarly, 373AA, which had been cooling its heels at MIA for the past week, flew MIA-PHL tonight, and is scheduled back to MIA, leaving PHL around 3:13am. So...that sure looks like UPS service.

Amazon of course has leased 10 more aircraft from CAM, but we mere mortals don't yet know which tails are going to be the ones actually dry-leased. To the extent that they are interested in getting one or more aircraft into service quickly, there are three tails potentially available: 376AN and 373AA (both of which are now on the ATI certificate and in-service, perhaps for UPS for a while), and 930WE (which is finished with conversion and is at ILN, presumably for conformity). 730WE should be done with conversion soon. So that makes 4 that could be quickly put into service for Amazon. Of course, any of those tails could be used for expansion at ATI, or leased by CAM to somebody other than Amazon. CAM doesn't usually do too much converting-on-speculation. It will lock up feedstock with deposits, but despite having "agreed to purchase" another 20 AA aircraft from Jetran, the fact is that it has some flexibility to speed up or slow down those acquisitions, or to pass on them completely, with minimal loss. What it doesn't typically do is spend the hard cash to finalize a purchase and convert the aircraft unless it has a good idea of where it is going. Accordingly, it stands to reason that CAM has an idea where those tails are going, but it's left to us to speculate.

For now, however, it's reasonable to speculate that for some period of time, 373AA and 376AN will be working for UPS, and it will be interesting to see how quickly Amazon adds planes to its network this year.

I wonder, is Amazon Air now flying to SJU? I am currently in PR and ordered three items. One shipped USPS Priority Mail, the second shipped International Bridge, but it appears the third tracking number appears to be an Amazon presorted tracking number since it doesn't show on the UPS, FedEx, International Bridge, or DHL eCommerce websites.

wjcandee wrote:

So two of the recently-converted CAM aircraft that were assigned to ATI, N376AN and N373AA had been doing some Latin America service and some UPS for Peak. After Christmas, both took a breather, with the exception of a little Latin America work. What's up with them now is interesting.

There have been rumors about ATI doing some medium-term UPS work post-Peak while UPS waits for the bunch of aircraft it has ordered new from Boeing (and trains more UPS pilots). It's not quite post-Peak yet because volumes post-Christmas actually stay high as people return and replace items received as gifts. Most returns go by ground. (Amazon, for example, primarily uses UPS Ground for returns.) The post-Christmas air volume is different from the pre-Christmas air volume, of course, despite the high total still-Peak volumes into mid-January. So there may be a place for very-temporary air service at UPS for the moment, or what I'm seeing may mean that the rumors are true and we're gonna see ATI flying two aircraft for UPS for a while.

376AN ferried to MCO today and flew MCO-PHL tonight. Similarly, 373AA, which had been cooling its heels at MIA for the past week, flew MIA-PHL tonight, and is scheduled back to MIA, leaving PHL around 3:13am. So...that sure looks like UPS service.

Amazon of course has leased 10 more aircraft from CAM, but we mere mortals don't yet know which tails are going to be the ones actually dry-leased. To the extent that they are interested in getting one or more aircraft into service quickly, there are three tails potentially available: 376AN and 373AA (both of which are now on the ATI certificate and in-service, perhaps for UPS for a while), and 930WE (which is finished with conversion and is at ILN, presumably for conformity). 730WE should be done with conversion soon. So that makes 4 that could be quickly put into service for Amazon. Of course, any of those tails could be used for expansion at ATI, or leased by CAM to somebody other than Amazon. CAM doesn't usually do too much converting-on-speculation. It will lock up feedstock with deposits, but despite having "agreed to purchase" another 20 AA aircraft from Jetran, the fact is that it has some flexibility to speed up or slow down those acquisitions, or to pass on them completely, with minimal loss. What it doesn't typically do is spend the hard cash to finalize a purchase and convert the aircraft unless it has a good idea of where it is going. Accordingly, it stands to reason that CAM has an idea where those tails are going, but it's left to us to speculate.

For now, however, it's reasonable to speculate that for some period of time, 373AA and 376AN will be working for UPS, and it will be interesting to see how quickly Amazon adds planes to its network this year.

What's interesting is the MCO/MIA-PHL routes are exactly half of the flying the 21 Air 767-200s were doing for UPS during peak (the CSB flights then did a MIA/MCO-DFW turn in the daytime after returning from PHL). I wonder if the 21 Air freighters just get parked after peak.

1337Delta764 wrote:

I wonder, is Amazon Air now flying to SJU? I am currently in PR and ordered three items. One shipped USPS Priority Mail, the second shipped International Bridge, but it appears the third tracking number appears to be an Amazon presorted tracking number since it doesn't show on the UPS, FedEx, International Bridge, or DHL eCommerce websites.

nothing for SJU right now and is currently not on the next destination list. That is planned as SBD.

741AX is flying from ILN to TPA after it being at ILN for several months

CALMSP wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

I wonder, is Amazon Air now flying to SJU? I am currently in PR and ordered three items. One shipped USPS Priority Mail, the second shipped International Bridge, but it appears the third tracking number appears to be an Amazon presorted tracking number since it doesn't show on the UPS, FedEx, International Bridge, or DHL eCommerce websites.

nothing for SJU right now and is currently not on the next destination list. That is planned as SBD.

I wonder who could be the shipping partner then. UPS, FedEx, DHL eCommerce, and International Bridge show nothing. Anyone know of any others?

cmairplaneman wrote:

741AX is flying from ILN to TPA after it being at ILN for several months

Interesting! This was an AJT lease return that has been in ILN since 5/30/18. It has a little less than 44000 cycles and about double that in hours. I had it down as being re-leased to an export customer after it got a heavy-check and upgraded avionics. I'm guessing it's going to TPA for the avionics upgrade (or some such) at PEMCO, which is now an AMES subsidiary.

I remember that you got photos of this aircraft in November at ILN, with its engines back on...

1337Delta764 wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

I wonder, is Amazon Air now flying to SJU? I am currently in PR and ordered three items. One shipped USPS Priority Mail, the second shipped International Bridge, but it appears the third tracking number appears to be an Amazon presorted tracking number since it doesn't show on the UPS, FedEx, International Bridge, or DHL eCommerce websites.

nothing for SJU right now and is currently not on the next destination list. That is planned as SBD.

I wonder who could be the shipping partner then. UPS, FedEx, DHL eCommerce, and International Bridge show nothing. Anyone know of any others?

It could be being delivered by a locally-contracted Amazon carrier, and moving as freight on a regular cargo flight to SJU through any number of freight brokers (e.g.Amerijet, StratAir, etc.).

wjcandee wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

nothing for SJU right now and is currently not on the next destination list. That is planned as SBD.

I wonder who could be the shipping partner then. UPS, FedEx, DHL eCommerce, and International Bridge show nothing. Anyone know of any others?

It could be being delivered by a locally-contracted Amazon carrier, and moving as freight on a regular cargo flight to SJU through any number of freight brokers (e.g.Amerijet, StratAir, etc.).

This one shipped from Jacksonville, FL and right now there are no tracking updates. I wonder which airport will it go through. International Bridge is always via CVG. UPS Mail Innovations is via MCO.

Looks like according to the latest tracking update it went to Miami. Could be going through Amerijet since they fly MIA-SJU.

1337Delta764 wrote:

Looks like according to the latest tracking update it went to Miami. Could be going through Amerijet since they fly MIA-SJU.

Yep. Also NAC/StratAir and the bellies of AA aircraft.

Spacepope wrote:

What's interesting is the MCO/MIA-PHL routes are exactly half of the flying the 21 Air 767-200s were doing for UPS during peak (the CSB flights then did a MIA/MCO-DFW turn in the daytime after returning from PHL). I wonder if the 21 Air freighters just get parked after peak.

That or maybe maintenance. I'm inclined to think, however, that 21 Air lost the contract because UPS preferred to have ATI fly two 767-300s instead of having 21 Air fly those 767-200s.

Both have been sitting for about a week. 999YV flew live to MIA and then parked. 881YV flew live to MCO, then ferried to OPF, which isn't a good sign. (OPF is where some aircraft go to have their usable components extracted.) These aircraft aren't that old as these things go, and each has 15000-ish cycles left, but I have no idea what condition they are in.

wjcandee wrote:

Spacepope wrote:

What's interesting is the MCO/MIA-PHL routes are exactly half of the flying the 21 Air 767-200s were doing for UPS during peak (the CSB flights then did a MIA/MCO-DFW turn in the daytime after returning from PHL). I wonder if the 21 Air freighters just get parked after peak.

That or maybe maintenance. I'm inclined to think, however, that 21 Air lost the contract because UPS preferred to have ATI fly two 767-300s instead of having 21 Air fly those 767-200s.

Both have been sitting for about a week. 999YV flew live to MIA and then parked. 881YV flew live to MCO, then ferried to OPF, which isn't a good sign. (OPF is where some aircraft go to have their usable components extracted.) These aircraft aren't that old as these things go, and each has 15000-ish cycles left, but I have no idea what condition they are in.

OPF also has cheaper parking than MIA (so fingers crossed this is not the end for 881YV). Could be a number of reasons why they're not on the UPS run anymore from due to heavy checks, crew availability post peak, capacity, to UPS perhaps didn't like dealing with their management. The 2 762s seemed to be pretty reliable for the relatively heavy use (10-or so hours each a day) they were put through though. They were used on some south american routes prior to peak, so maybe they'll get more work soon.

Does anyone have a full list of the Amazon Air Tail Numbers by operator?

Planespotters shows 30 767-300s -

22 for Atlas (including 1709A, are they mislabeling another one or is 21 the right number)

8 for ATI

I know the ABX tails N744AX, N749AX, N750AX, N774AX, N795AX, and N768AX are also Amazon Air planes.

20 known Atlas 767-300s (out of 21 tail numbers)
8 known ATI 767-300s
6 known ABX 767-200s
6 unknown ATI 767-200s ... of these, I believe N714AX, N739AX, AND N791AX are all dedicated to Amazon

If the above is true:
1. What are the other 3 ATI 767-200 tail numbers?
2. What Atlas tail number has been misclassified by Planespotters?

Thanks in advance.

AV8AJET wrote:

Atlas:

N1013A, N1049A, N1093A, N1181A, N1217A, N1229A, N1321A, N1327A, N1361A, N1373A, N1381A, N1399A (white tail, P&W), N1409A, N1427A, N1439A, N1487A, N1489A, N1499A, N1511A (white tail, P&W), N1619A, N1709A (white tail, P&W), N1997A

Thanks, to clarify, N1709A and N1399A are officially part of the Atlas fleet that are used for general network relief (i.e. - they are not exclusively operated for Amazon)?

Are the other 20 aircraft CF6s?

Okay, here is the answer.

At Atlas, two of the 22 aircraft are NOT dry-leased to Amazon. They are owned by or leased to Atlas Air, and function as maintenance spares for the Amazon contract. They can be used on anything Atlas wants to use them on. The other 20 are the ones that are dry-leased to Amazon, and flown by Atlas under a CMI agreement. They are Amazon's aircraft and Atlas can't use them for anything else (without Amazon's permission, which they won't get except in extraordinary circumstances).

1709A has GEs, not Pratts. I think 1709A was actually transitioned from being expected to be the maintenance spare, to being dry-leased, and the other two white-tails became the maintenance spares. Those are 1511A and 1619A. Those are also the two with P&W engines. 1399A, contrary to the list above, has CF6s. 1709A is the only one of the Atlas aircraft that had already been converted when Atlas bought it. Euroatlantic had operated it as a freighter.

At ABX, the tail numbers listed as dry-leased to Amazon are correct. ABX frequently uses other aircraft on the Amazon assignment as maintenance or operational spares, but the dry-leased ones that can ONLY be used for Amazon are the ones listed.

The Amazon dry-leased 767-300s flown by ATI are: 307AZ, 311AZ, 313AZ, 331AZ, 337AZ, 347AZ, 353AZ and 359AZ. 395CM is often used as a maintenance spare for Amazon.

The Amazon dry-leased 767-200s flown by ATI are: 791AX, 714AX, 739AX, 761CX, 762CX, 763CX. 255CM is often used as a maintenance spare for Amazon. 255 did a lot of duty for Amazon while 739 was getting its bulkhead changed and otherwise taking forever on the maintenance necessary to prep it after it was returned from lease to get it ready for the dry-lease to Amazon. But it was never dry-leased to Amazon.

Thank you. This is great.

OK who wants to make the google doc so we can track use by airframe?

southbound35 wrote:

Thank you. This is great.

My pleasure!!

Just in rereading my post, I should make clear that when I talked about 255CM and 739AX, when I say, "it" was never leased to Amazon, I am talking about 255CM. That is, 255CM was never dry-leased to Amazon (it is a maintenance spare leased to ATI), but it ran for a while as if it was while standing in for 739AX until ATSG's maintenance shop (called AMES) could complete all the maintenance that needed to be done on 739AX after it returned from a dry-lease to Amerijet and before it was ready to be dry-leased to Amazon. As I mentioned, one of the things that had to be accomplished was an aft pressure bulkhead replacement, which AMES did in-house. It is a huge, delicate, job, as illustrated in this video of AMES performing the same repair on 795AX (another of the CAM 767-200s that is leased to Amazon, but flown by ABX):: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIn6gK9FJJQ

Interesting fact: AMES was at one point (and maybe still is) the only contractor authorized to perform this repair, other than Boeing itself.

AMES's newest hangar at ILN (completed June 2014) has a ceiling-mounted 15-ton crane that eliminates the need to bring in an outside crane to do the lifting that they used a mobile crane to do in the video. Video about the new crane by the crane manufacturer, mentioning that they wanted a crane that could lift a whole 767 tail section: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpgQ6mDwv-w

Cool video of AMES's shop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lfq-9F3rrcs&t=380s

If you're asking (not clear): The P&W aircraft are 1511A and 1619A. The rest are CF6s. The white tails are 1709A, 1511A and 1619A. The dry-leased aircraft are everything except 1511A and 1619A. Those two are used by Atlas to protect DHL and Amazon, and for any other purpose they choose, as those aircraft are owned by Atlas.

Just something to share, I read some info on Amazon's shipping costs, and based on some data I found, based on some estimates, the typical all-in ground shipping cost for a package delivered by USPS is around $4, vs. $6.75 for UPS Ground and $7.25 for FedEx Ground/Home Delivery. Air shipping costs are harder to estimate since I am not sure if it is the all-in cost or for the air portion only, but I read it generally costs Amazon $6 to use Amazon Air (the source didn't specify the last mile carrier), $8 to use UPS, and $10 to use FedEx Express.

1337Delta764 wrote:

Just something to share, I read some info on Amazon's shipping costs, and based on some data I found, based on some estimates, the typical all-in ground shipping cost for a package delivered by USPS is around $4, vs. $6.75 for UPS Ground and $7.25 for FedEx Ground/Home Delivery. Air shipping costs are harder to estimate since I am not sure if it is the all-in cost or for the air portion only, but I read it generally costs Amazon $6 to use Amazon Air (the source didn't specify the last mile carrier), $8 to use UPS, and $10 to use FedEx Express.

Interesting.. is the info public or something you can post a link to?

USAirKid wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

Just something to share, I read some info on Amazon's shipping costs, and based on some data I found, based on some estimates, the typical all-in ground shipping cost for a package delivered by USPS is around $4, vs. $6.75 for UPS Ground and $7.25 for FedEx Ground/Home Delivery. Air shipping costs are harder to estimate since I am not sure if it is the all-in cost or for the air portion only, but I read it generally costs Amazon $6 to use Amazon Air (the source didn't specify the last mile carrier), $8 to use UPS, and $10 to use FedEx Express.

Interesting.. is the info public or something you can post a link to?

There were multiple sources, so not found at one place.

That’s about right. Amazon has stated that shipping items themselves using Amazon Air saves about $4 on average for every package. That’s a massive savings multiplied across all their packages (if they were able to ship 100% of items in-house). I’m curious how much cost savings will widen as Amazon Air matures and things are streamlined further.

N389AA a recently retired American 767 was ferried from TUL to ROW. I highly imagine this one ending up in the hands of Amazon.

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

One thing I have been noticing in my area that Amazon Logistics is doing more of the small packages, while some of the larger packages or those with irregular dimensions are being assigned to the USPS for the last mile. I presume Amazon might be trying to avoid injury liability for the Amazon Logistics drivers. It has been a while that I got an Amazon delivery via UPS or FedEx, although since my ZIP code is considered an extended area by both this probably discourages Amazon from using them to my home address. I see them use them somewhat more to more central areas of the Phoenix area such as Tempe or even Gilbert which are not considered extended by UPS or FedEx. In fact the only time I have ever gotten FedEx to my home address for an Amazon-fulfilled Prime order was a paid upgrade to One-Day shipping; never for Two-Day orders. It seems like the times Amazon is more likely to use UPS to my home address are during peak demand times such as Prime Day or the holiday season (although it didn't happen in 2018), when an item ships from an atypical fulfillment center within ground range (so far I have seen it from Reno and the San Diego area), or when an item is restocked after ordering a backordered item (in this case Amazon will sometimes use UPS Next Day Air to get the item delivered as quickly as possible).

BOEING777EK wrote:

N389AA a recently retired American 767 was ferried from TUL to ROW. I highly imagine this one ending up in the hands of Amazon.

I think it's almost-certainly going to go to CAM. Whether it's one of the ones for Amazon is unclear, but it's likely going to CAM.

381 and 389 were the first AA retirements of 2019. I was curious how much work AA was going to do on the aircraft before sending it forward. Looks like it spent 2 weeks in TUL before heading to ROW. That's about enough time to remove the things that AA wants to remove, do certain paperwork, and then park it for CAM to come pick up when they're ready for it in ILN.

1337Delta764 wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

One thing I have been noticing in my area that Amazon Logistics is doing more of the small packages, while some of the larger packages or those with irregular dimensions are being assigned to the USPS for the last mile. I presume Amazon might be trying to avoid injury liability for the Amazon Logistics drivers. It has been a while that I got an Amazon delivery via UPS or FedEx, although since my ZIP code is considered an extended area by both this probably discourages Amazon from using them to my home address. I see them use them somewhat more to more central areas of the Phoenix area such as Tempe or even Gilbert which are not considered extended by UPS or FedEx. In fact the only time I have ever gotten FedEx to my home address for an Amazon-fulfilled Prime order was a paid upgrade to One-Day shipping; never for Two-Day orders. It seems like the times Amazon is more likely to use UPS to my home address are during peak demand times such as Prime Day or the holiday season (although it didn't happen in 2018), when an item ships from an atypical fulfillment center within ground range (so far I have seen it from Reno and the San Diego area), or when an item is restocked after ordering a backordered item (in this case Amazon will sometimes use UPS Next Day Air to get the item delivered as quickly as possible).

I live across the Puget Sound from Seattle (land of the Amazon), no Amazon delivery here. I see small and light packages (under 2 lb but most under 1 lb) being USPS with the larger packages being UPS and FedEX. My daughter in law orders everything from Amazon including 6 one gallon bottles of Vinegar, big bags of cat food, and also Kitty Litter. I am sure Amazon loses on shipping to our house. Kitsap County is pretty rural, except there are 3 big Naval Bases here, so the density is probably not enough for Amazon to do themselves, better markets for now.

I do these big serpents out in the Hood Canal every few weeks. The Trident Subs do a lap around Dabob Bay before starting a mission. There is an acoustic range there that checks each sub is quiet before leaving.

JayinKitsap wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

One thing I have been noticing in my area that Amazon Logistics is doing more of the small packages, while some of the larger packages or those with irregular dimensions are being assigned to the USPS for the last mile. I presume Amazon might be trying to avoid injury liability for the Amazon Logistics drivers. It has been a while that I got an Amazon delivery via UPS or FedEx, although since my ZIP code is considered an extended area by both this probably discourages Amazon from using them to my home address. I see them use them somewhat more to more central areas of the Phoenix area such as Tempe or even Gilbert which are not considered extended by UPS or FedEx. In fact the only time I have ever gotten FedEx to my home address for an Amazon-fulfilled Prime order was a paid upgrade to One-Day shipping; never for Two-Day orders. It seems like the times Amazon is more likely to use UPS to my home address are during peak demand times such as Prime Day or the holiday season (although it didn't happen in 2018), when an item ships from an atypical fulfillment center within ground range (so far I have seen it from Reno and the San Diego area), or when an item is restocked after ordering a backordered item (in this case Amazon will sometimes use UPS Next Day Air to get the item delivered as quickly as possible).

I live across the Puget Sound from Seattle (land of the Amazon), no Amazon delivery here. I see small and light packages (under 2 lb but most under 1 lb) being USPS with the larger packages being UPS and FedEX. My daughter in law orders everything from Amazon including 6 one gallon bottles of Vinegar, big bags of cat food, and also Kitty Litter. I am sure Amazon loses on shipping to our house. Kitsap County is pretty rural, except there are 3 big Naval Bases here, so the density is probably not enough for Amazon to do themselves, better markets for now.

I do these big serpents out in the Hood Canal every few weeks. The Trident Subs do a lap around Dabob Bay before starting a mission. There is an acoustic range there that checks each sub is quiet before leaving.

Interestingly the most expensive item we have ordered from Amazon was a Roomba and it shipped via UPS Ground. I wonder if high value items are more likely to go via UPS or FedEx.

1337Delta764 wrote:

Interestingly the most expensive item we have ordered from Amazon was a Roomba and it shipped via UPS Ground. I wonder if high value items are more likely to go via UPS or FedEx.

I'm not sure with Amazon, but when I worked seasonally at Blue Nile, the more expensive items were shipped by faster means. I just checked their website again, and anything over $1,000 in value goes FedEx Priority Overnight. That of course is small expensive things. As I recall, part of the reason was that its more secure if the package spends less time sitting within FedEx's facilities. Also, UPS and FedEx's employees get signatures for items more often, which is important with those higher value packages.

I'm pretty sure that Amazon has some kind of algorithm that chooses for each package the least-expensive method that will meet the delivery guarantee selected by the customer, based on the origin and destination. If ShipStation offers this to mere mortals, it's kind of a lock that Amazon has something similar, but likely much-more-sophisticated. Dimensions of the box, and weight, are obvious parameters to be considered. It is possible, I suppose, that certain very-valuable items go by certain carriers, but I'm thinking that that is secondary to Origin, Destination, Size, Weight and Deliver-by. You will likely note that if you make a couple of Amazon orders within a few hours of each other, you will find that elements of both orders are combined in one box if they are coming from the same DC. Walmart and Target do not seem to have the same functionality.

In the Roomba example, depending upon where the package is going, it is possible that the item is drop-shipped from the manufacturer or a particular supplier. Most of the time when I get something by UPS Ground from Amazon, that's the situation. Almost all stuff coming to me from an Amazon DC comes these days via the organic Amazon delivery network, including last-mile by Lasership or USPS. This varied a little during Peak.

wjcandee wrote:

I'm pretty sure that Amazon has some kind of algorithm that chooses for each package the least-expensive method that will meet the delivery guarantee selected by the customer, based on the origin and destination. If ShipStation offers this to mere mortals, it's kind of a lock that Amazon has something similar, but likely much-more-sophisticated. Dimensions of the box, and weight, are obvious parameters to be considered. It is possible, I suppose, that certain very-valuable items go by certain carriers, but I'm thinking that that is secondary to Origin, Destination, Size, Weight and Deliver-by. You will likely note that if you make a couple of Amazon orders within a few hours of each other, you will find that elements of both orders are combined in one box if they are coming from the same DC. Walmart and Target do not seem to have the same functionality.

In the Roomba example, depending upon where the package is going, it is possible that the item is drop-shipped from the manufacturer or a particular supplier. Most of the time when I get something by UPS Ground from Amazon, that's the situation. Almost all stuff coming to me from an Amazon DC comes these days via the organic Amazon delivery network, including last-mile by Lasership or USPS. This varied a little during Peak.

Note that I don't always get the nearest fulfillment center for Two-Day Prime orders, even when the local fulfillment centers apparently have the item in stock (indicated by the "Free Same-Day" or "Free One-Day" text). Quite frequently Amazon ships my items from the Inland Empire of California instead. I wonder if it could be an inventory control algorithm that is choosing the Inland Empire over the local fulfillment centers, since the latter can be used to fulfill Same-Day or One-Day deliveries. In addition, the Phoenix area fulfillment centers fulfill a lot of orders going to Albuquerque, and perhaps Amazon doesn't want a shortage of inventory for Albuquerque/New Mexico, and considering the sheer concentration of fulfillment centers in the Inland Empire of California, that is probably a natural choice to ship orders coming to the Phoenix area to conserve some of the local inventory.

As for the Roomba, it shipped from Reno, and Amazon does have fulfillment centers there. We never get packages from there via Amazon's organic delivery network, since I presume Amazon doesn't run a linehaul route between Reno and Phoenix. In fact we don't even get packages from Las Vegas surprisingly. With the Amazon organic delivery network, the Phoenix area is connected to the Inland Empire, two fulfillment centers in Northern California (one in Tracy and one in Sacramento), two in Texas (one in Fort Worth and one in San Marcos), and some fulfillment centers in the Salt Lake City and Denver areas (the latter two areas were added last fall).

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

That’s exactly how it works. Give the TVs, furniture, and other irregular stuff to the carriers and keep the light, small, easy stuff for themselves. It’s smart.

Now I’m not saying they aren’t handing smalls over to the Big 3, they most certainly do. But in areas where they do have their service up and running it’s going through their network. I believe they also base it on whether or not a carrier will be in the general area. They don’t have stop density on their side. UPS and Fedex drivers will service a smaller geographic area (especially UPS) because they have so much other work to fill in the holes, Amazon doesn’t have that. Yet.....

Just before Christmas Amazon started rolling out their own service to my podunk mountain town. It's strange, but at least something different to watch, especially the dude delivering epsom salts in a little Honda Accord...

No increase in freighter traffic into COS mainline (FDX uses it as a stop on MEM-COS-GJT and back) or feeder (Alpine uses a B99, Key Lime hits us with a SW4 and eeeeevery so often we get a Bemidji BE65 if the lift warrants it, all down from DEN).

Even with a warehouse out at the airport now, any volume growth is gonna be trucked down from DEN. Those shiny new dodge vans make you feel like you've hit the big time though.

Spacepope wrote:

Just before Christmas Amazon started rolling out their own service to my podunk mountain town. It's strange, but at least something different to watch, especially the dude delivering epsom salts in a little Honda Accord...

No increase in freighter traffic into COS mainline (FDX uses it as a stop on MEM-COS-GJT and back) or feeder (Alpine uses a B99, Key Lime hits us with a SW4 and eeeeevery so often we get a Bemidji BE65 if the lift warrants it, all down from DEN).

Even with a warehouse out at the airport now, any volume growth is gonna be trucked down from DEN. Those shiny new dodge vans make you feel like you've hit the big time though.

Seems like Amazon is using Flex to cover some of the more outlying areas, while the Amazon Logistics Delivery Service Partners (the van drivers) are doing the more central areas. We get both where I live.

jetblueguy22 wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

That’s exactly how it works. Give the TVs, furniture, and other irregular stuff to the carriers and keep the light, small, easy stuff for themselves. It’s smart.

Now I’m not saying they aren’t handing smalls over to the Big 3, they most certainly do. But in areas where they do have their service up and running it’s going through their network. I believe they also base it on whether or not a carrier will be in the general area. They don’t have stop density on their side. UPS and Fedex drivers will service a smaller geographic area (especially UPS) because they have so much other work to fill in the holes, Amazon doesn’t have that. Yet.....

Last fall I was driving between Libby and Troy Montana. This is a very rural area far from anything really, and rumbling down the road came a UPS package delivery truck. It made me wonder what UPS would be bringing to Troy Montana and after just a moment the I figured it was Amazon stuff. People in rural Montana might actually like free two delivery more than more suburban or urban folks. It also seemed to me that Amazon might be leaving UPS the relatively difficult and expensive ( I suspect a delivery in Troy is more expensive than in most places) items to deliver. I wonder how this changes the relationship between UPS and Amazon.

Yep, definitely seems like UPS is being given the less desirable deliveries. I am in rural Maine and all my Amazon Prime orders come using UPS 2-day air.

cvgComair wrote:

Yep, definitely seems like UPS is being given the less desirable deliveries. I am in rural Maine and all my Amazon Prime orders come using UPS 2-day air.

That's actually surprising. I'd actually expect USPS for these rural areas because of the delivery area surcharges that UPS and FedEx charge, and I presume this was one of the key reasons that Amazon signed its agreement with the USPS. Prior to Amazon Logistics coming to our city we mostly got USPS, and they remain the second most common carrier for us.

mcg wrote:

jetblueguy22 wrote:

JayinKitsap wrote:

I suspect Amazon is cherry picking the best shipments to in house, but that is a natural choice. Let FedEX and UPS do the deliveries that cost more, keep the profitable ones for oneself.

That’s exactly how it works. Give the TVs, furniture, and other irregular stuff to the carriers and keep the light, small, easy stuff for themselves. It’s smart.

Now I’m not saying they aren’t handing smalls over to the Big 3, they most certainly do. But in areas where they do have their service up and running it’s going through their network. I believe they also base it on whether or not a carrier will be in the general area. They don’t have stop density on their side. UPS and Fedex drivers will service a smaller geographic area (especially UPS) because they have so much other work to fill in the holes, Amazon doesn’t have that. Yet.....

Last fall I was driving between Libby and Troy Montana. This is a very rural area far from anything really, and rumbling down the road came a UPS package delivery truck. It made me wonder what UPS would be bringing to Troy Montana and after just a moment the I figured it was Amazon stuff. People in rural Montana might actually like free two delivery more than more suburban or urban folks. It also seemed to me that Amazon might be leaving UPS the relatively difficult and expensive ( I suspect a delivery in Troy is more expensive than in most places) items to deliver. I wonder how this changes the relationship between UPS and Amazon.

When I worked in Montana, the FedEx Express couriers from Miles City had to deliver Amazon packages to Capitol, a very remote area on the ND border. 50 miles on gravel from the next closest stop. Amazon is certainly using FX and UPS to deliver the "ugly" stops while often keeping the denser urban areas.

HPRamper wrote:

mcg wrote:

jetblueguy22 wrote:

That’s exactly how it works. Give the TVs, furniture, and other irregular stuff to the carriers and keep the light, small, easy stuff for themselves. It’s smart.

Now I’m not saying they aren’t handing smalls over to the Big 3, they most certainly do. But in areas where they do have their service up and running it’s going through their network. I believe they also base it on whether or not a carrier will be in the general area. They don’t have stop density on their side. UPS and Fedex drivers will service a smaller geographic area (especially UPS) because they have so much other work to fill in the holes, Amazon doesn’t have that. Yet.....

Last fall I was driving between Libby and Troy Montana. This is a very rural area far from anything really, and rumbling down the road came a UPS package delivery truck. It made me wonder what UPS would be bringing to Troy Montana and after just a moment the I figured it was Amazon stuff. People in rural Montana might actually like free two delivery more than more suburban or urban folks. It also seemed to me that Amazon might be leaving UPS the relatively difficult and expensive ( I suspect a delivery in Troy is more expensive than in most places) items to deliver. I wonder how this changes the relationship between UPS and Amazon.

When I worked in Montana, the FedEx Express couriers from Miles City had to deliver Amazon packages to Capitol, a very remote area on the ND border. 50 miles on gravel from the next closest stop. Amazon is certainly using FX and UPS to deliver the "ugly" stops while often keeping the denser urban areas.

Indeed, I work in the Missouri Breaks area in the summer, in a town famous for being "Where the pavement ends". Ranchers love Amazon up there, though sometimes they have to go into town to the post office to grab packages. The UPS Package Cars don't seem to have too much problem out there on the gravel, especially since the main roads out to the ICBM launch silos are really well taken care of by the DOD. Occasionally see a UPS Ford pickup out there too.

Does Amazon ever say "sorry, your location is just too remote for two day delivery"?