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Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:03 am
by atcsundevil
Please continue from last year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382393

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:15 am
by ERJ170
My 2019 RDU prediction
- 1 new airline
- 3 new destinations
- Start of Vision 2040 (parking)
- LHR shift to 787

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:33 am
by hockyluv21
My personal predictions:

Daily SAN (AS)
3-4 new F9 destinations
Possibly an AA/BA switch on the LHR flight
DL/AA switch on the PIT route
Daily MSY from WN

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:12 am
by F27500
RDU needs its own whole thread??

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:54 am
by FA9295
F27500 wrote:
RDU needs its own whole thread??

It had one last year.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:55 am
by FA9295
hockyluv21 wrote:
My personal predictions:

Daily SAN (AS)

I'd like to see PDX-RDU, but SAN-RDU is probably more realistic.

SAN seems to have a better transcon market then PDX does.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:24 am
by ERJ170
I’d like to see 1x PDX on a 73G, 1x 73H on SAN, and a 2nd SEA 739.. on AS

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:30 am
by rajincajun01
ERJ170 wrote:
I’d like to see 1x PDX on a 73G, 1x 73H on SAN, and a 2nd SEA 739.. on AS


If you’re being that specific a 73J on SEA. We don’t typically use the -700s on transcons unless they are being swapped out and going to GSO for maintenance. We keep them on the West Coast and in Alaska typically. The E175 isn’t proven in the extreme environments of Alaska yet, so they aren’t used there. We used -700s to replace the -400s and Combis.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:02 pm
by ERJ170
Honestly, I’m just happy for new service. What is also like to see, slightly off topic.. is anyone do EWN-DCA... anyone, please

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:20 pm
by Midwestindy
ERJ170 wrote:
My 2019 RDU prediction
- 1 new airline
- 3 new destinations
- Start of Vision 2040 (parking)
- LHR shift to 787


Looks like you are already 1 for 1, the new airline will be Via Air
https://www.flyviaair.com/route-map

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:48 pm
by ERJ170
Wow!! That’s cool..

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:05 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
Midwestindy wrote:

Looks like you are already 1 for 1, the new airline will be Via Air
https://www.flyviaair.com/route-map



RDU-BHM? That's...random.

That's assuming, of course, that Via is still around to start it.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:10 pm
by ERJ170
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.. places I also see from their route map they can do is MEM, CAE, and Tallahassee...

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:55 pm
by rajincajun01
MEM is possible now. Via has been doing a lot better out of AUS for the holidays. I’ve seen significantly less cancellations in the last couple of weeks.

Didn’t ExpressJet try BHM as a standalone carrier?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:00 pm
by ERJ170
Yes... and JAX

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:36 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.


Are you serious? Please explain and show your work.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:42 pm
by ERJ170
Well.. AA had it.. Independence had it... Expressjet has it.. Midway had it... that’s a good amount of carriers..

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:57 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
ERJ170 wrote:
Well.. AA had it.. Independence had it... Expressjet has it.. Midway had it... that’s a good amount of carriers..


Two of the four were hub and spoke carriers at RDU. And I don't think Independence Air ever served BHM from either IAD or RDU.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:38 pm
by ERJ170
Corrected. Not Independence air. But I don’t need understand the problem. It’s been served at least by 3 airlines.. so it’s not unheard of or a rarity. It will be okay. I would actually rather hear others predictions than start 2019 with senseless and useless argument which serves no purpose other than trying to make someone look incompetent.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:47 pm
by TYSflyer
ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.. places I also see from their route map they can do is MEM, CAE, and Tallahassee...

It will be interesting to see how it fares. Also I’m curious to see what the frequency will be. It does not appear the schedules have actually been loaded. Most of their routes hover in the 2-4 times weekly area. I agree that RDU-MEM would have to be on the short list of future routes. I’m still surprised DL has not started that but I digress

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:00 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
ERJ170 wrote:
Corrected. Not Independence air. But I don’t need understand the problem. It’s been served at least by 3 airlines.. so it’s not unheard of or a rarity. It will be okay. I would actually rather hear others predictions than start 2019 with senseless and useless argument which serves no purpose other than trying to make someone look incompetent.


I just think it's an absurd route. Don't take it personally.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:01 pm
by GSP psgr
As far as possible Delta Connection adds how do Pittsburgh, Memphis, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, or San Antonio grab you guys?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:13 pm
by ERJ170
GSP psgr wrote:
As far as possible Delta Connection adds how do Pittsburgh, Memphis, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, or San Antonio grab you guys?


I wish I could predict Delta’s moves, but it looks like the shift has gone away from RDU and appear to be showing up BOS now.. SEA getting a little love.. ATL, not so much.. DTW getting more than I would have guessed or done.. MSP getting some.. SLC is on a roll.. but no idea what future RDU plans could entail.. maybe they need more gate space or just upgrading.. surprises the A220 isn’t being used more prominently at the focus cities with mainline more prominent at the hubs.. but, what do I know...

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:22 pm
by rajincajun01
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Corrected. Not Independence air. But I don’t need understand the problem. It’s been served at least by 3 airlines.. so it’s not unheard of or a rarity. It will be okay. I would actually rather hear others predictions than start 2019 with senseless and useless argument which serves no purpose other than trying to make someone look incompetent.


I just think it's an absurd route. Don't take it personally.


It’s really not absurd. Especially on a 50 seater and not daily.

Don’t forget Belk, PNC, and BioCryst all have headquarters or regional offices in both locations.

A lot of F9’s adds are significantly more absurd.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:26 pm
by Cebo29
GSE for CS1 (A220) is already in RDU

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:17 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
rajincajun01 wrote:

It’s really not absurd. Especially on a 50 seater and not daily.

Don’t forget Belk, PNC, and BioCryst all have headquarters or regional offices in both locations.



Good luck to 'em. I just doubt there will be substantial business travel on such an unreliable, less-than-daily service.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:54 pm
by CanesFan
ERJ170 wrote:
Well.. AA had it.. Independence had it... Expressjet has it.. Midway had it... that’s a good amount of carriers..


I don’t believe AA ever operated RDU-BHM

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:57 pm
by rajincajun01
CanesFan wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Well.. AA had it.. Independence had it... Expressjet has it.. Midway had it... that’s a good amount of carriers..


I don’t believe AA ever operated RDU-BHM


They did in their hub days. Just looked it up in an old timetable I have.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:00 pm
by LovePrunesAnet
ERJ170 wrote:
Corrected. Not Independence air. But I don’t need understand the problem. It’s been served at least by 3 airlines.. so it’s not unheard of or a rarity. It will be okay. I would actually rather hear others predictions than start 2019 with senseless and useless argument which serves no purpose other than trying to make someone look incompetent.


AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.


Are you serious? Please explain and show your work.


yeah the "show your work" bit is a little, um... cranky/passive aggressive? definitely antagonistic and unnecessary. Happy freaking 2019 though.

I was going to point out only that the fact they route was no longer in existence till via air took it up might indicate it wasn't sustainable. But these airlines like Frontier picking random city pairs, especially involving RDU, seem to be working in general. Especially so *if* Delta has hit the pause button.

As far as Memphis goes, I really see that WAY WAY down the list (or not even ON the list) of needing nonstops from RDU. I frankly think MEM can have everyone on all airlines connect thru hub-only flights as MEM is a shell of it's former self, but this is an RDU topic, not one for MEM.

F27500 wrote:
RDU needs its own whole thread??

For the poster wondering why RDU has it's own thread, it goes back 4 years : viewtopic.php?f=3&t=607831
I guess the practice here on this forum is every single topic gets a new thread on Jan 1. Kinda unnecessary IMO

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:43 pm
by CanesFan
rajincajun01 wrote:
They did in their hub days. Just looked it up in an old timetable I have.


What year? Departedflights doesn't even show it.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:44 pm
by AVLAirlineFreq
LovePrunesAnet wrote:

yeah the "show your work" bit is a little, um... cranky/passive aggressive? definitely antagonistic and unnecessary. Happy freaking 2019 though.

I was going to point out only that the fact they route was no longer in existence till via air took it up might indicate it wasn't sustainable. But these airlines like Frontier picking random city pairs, especially involving RDU, seem to be working in general. Especially so *if* Delta has hit the pause button.

As far as Memphis goes, I really see that WAY WAY down the list (or not even ON the list) of needing nonstops from RDU. I frankly think MEM can have everyone on all airlines connect thru hub-only flights as MEM is a shell of it's former self, but this is an RDU topic, not one for MEM.



And a Happy New Year's to you, too. My apologies to anyone I have offended.

IIRC, RDU-MEM was one of the last drops by DL Connection from the MEM hub. I don't know how much that means now, though.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:44 am
by F27500
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.


Are you serious? Please explain and show your work.


Hahahaha... "Explain and show your work" .. who says that ?!!

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:45 am
by AVLAirlineFreq
F27500 wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-BHM is not an uncommon route.


Are you serious? Please explain and show your work.


Hahahaha... "Explain and show your work" .. who says that ?!!


I did. I literally wanted to know what was meant by that. No big deal.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:48 am
by ERJ170
So... now that it’s all settled... any other predictions?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:56 am
by AVLAirlineFreq
ERJ170 wrote:
So... now that it’s all settled... any other predictions?


* DL's domestic growth at RDU will continue to be sluggish as it awaits more deliveries of A220s.
* WN will add two new daily markets, one of which will be MSY.
* G4 will add FLL.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:30 am
by SANFan
hockyluv21 wrote:
My personal predictions:
Daily SAN (AS)
3-4 new F9 destinations
Possibly an AA/BA switch on the LHR flight
DL/AA switch on the PIT route
Daily MSY from WN

Happy New Year to all! Boy, you folks jump right into it in a hurry! Look at all these posts on the 1st day of the year. (I wish we had this kind of participation on the SAN-thread...)

Anyway, I sure hope you're right with your first prediction. I don't even know if F9 still serves the route -- I can never keep track of their here-not here flights -- but regardless, the market needs a real airline with real service. I agree with your choice of carrier also but it's a bit hard to tell what AS might start this year. WN is already on a rampage in 2019 at SAN (apparently due to picking up several new gates) so in addition to the surprise add of SAN-ORF, I wouldn't put it past them to jump at SAN-RDU as well...

Anyway, fingers crossed.

FA9295 wrote:
I'd like to see PDX-RDU, but SAN-RDU is probably more realistic.
SAN seems to have a better transcon market then PDX does.

I will say that for the first 2 quarters of 2018, the DOT (Table 6) shows PDX-RDU at 85PDEW and SAN-RDU is at 144 PDEW; SAN has (minimal) service while PDX has none.
This is of course not the only factor taken into account when cx select new routes but it does show important data.

bb

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:35 am
by rajincajun01
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
So... now that it’s all settled... any other predictions?


* DL's domestic growth at RDU will continue to be sluggish as it awaits more deliveries of A220s.
* WN will add two new daily markets, one of which will be MSY.
* G4 will add FLL.


If G4 adds FLL we can probably kiss any chance of getting NK goodbye. Most of their main markets will be very well served. B6 hasn’t been great at keeping up with demand on this route.

With fuel prices dropping, it might help get someone to experiment with a west coast flight. AS is capping their growth in 2019, but an additional flight would help move planes into GSO for maintenance. F9 needs to fly all of their new planes somewhere. Not sure what fleet flexibility WN has.

CanesFan wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
They did in their hub days. Just looked it up in an old timetable I have.


What year? Departedflights doesn't even show it.


1992 timetable.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:50 am
by CanesFan
rajincajun01 wrote:
1992 timetable.


Learn something new every day :) Thank you.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:35 am
by ERJ170
Does anyone know the order for Vision 3040 to be completed?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:13 am
by AVLAirlineFreq
rajincajun01 wrote:
If G4 adds FLL we can probably kiss any chance of getting NK goodbye. Most of their main markets will be very well served. B6 hasn’t been great at keeping up with demand on this route.


I can still see NK adding RDU. I don't keep up with them as much as I do G4, so I don't know what their pilot and equipment situation is at the current time, so I didn't predict their entry into the market. It may also depend on whether NK sees that they and G4 can both be successful in GSO and/or AVL. Those markets are obviously different in their own ways from RDU, but they may also serve as something of a litmus test of whether both airlines can co-exist on RDU-Florida ULCC routes.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:38 am
by FA9295
SANFan wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I'd like to see PDX-RDU, but SAN-RDU is probably more realistic.
SAN seems to have a better transcon market then PDX does.

I will say that for the first 2 quarters of 2018, the DOT (Table 6) shows PDX-RDU at 85PDEW and SAN-RDU is at 144 PDEW; SAN has (minimal) service while PDX has none.
This is of course not the only factor taken into account when cx select new routes but it does show important data.

bb

An Alaska Boeing 737-800 has 159 seats. So 144/159 is roughly a 91% load factor. Obviously 144 is just an average, but SAN-RDU could probably work for them.

On a separate note, RDU has really been pushing for PDX service, so with a financial subsidy, it might be able to happen.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:52 am
by ERJ170
What’s the likelihood of a BDA or NAS flight? Even if only seasonally? If CUN can be run, why can’t these 2?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:23 pm
by southwest1675
Does Envoy handle the ramp for AA at RDU?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:56 pm
by CanesFan
ERJ170 wrote:
What’s the likelihood of a BDA or NAS flight? Even if only seasonally? If CUN can be run, why can’t these 2?


CUN and BDA are entirely different types of markets. CUN has more to offer and is relatively cheap, so the appeal is more widespread. BDA, on the other hand, is the most expensive country in the world, and with its more limited offerings, tends to be more exclusive. RDU used to have nonstop service to BDA back in the hub days when nearly all of the traffic was connecting.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:28 pm
by rajincajun01
southwest1675 wrote:
Does Envoy handle the ramp for AA at RDU?


Yes.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:12 pm
by Rafale9312
ERJ170 wrote:
Does anyone know the order for Vision 3040 to be completed?


The new runway is the first and highest priority line item to be completed in the 2040 plan from what I remember. Purely guessing from here, but I believe the next priority after that is improvements made to parking by expanding the Economy Lot 3 substantially then constructing the consolidated rental and transportation center. Terminal expansion will probably follow that, but a lot of what the Vision 2040 plan entails will come as funds become available, and will not necessarily be in place by 2040. For those who want to know some of the specifics of the plan, they can be found at https://vision2040.rdu.com. There should be a document on there outlining a rough timeline of what should be completed in order according the priorities set by the airport.

I'm very excited to see what 2019 has in store for RDU!

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:27 pm
by devron
I predict a direct flight to frankfurt with lufthansa. Oh no that is just wishfull thinking.

Seriously is there any change of another europe flight?

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:13 pm
by CanesFan
My bold predictions:

Growth will tend to be more about up gauging aircraft as opposed to increasing flights.
Some less-than-daily flights will move towards daily.
One or two of Allegiant and/or Frontier's routes will be picked up by one or more of the legacy carriers.
Allegiant and/or Frontier will reshuffle their routes somewhat out of RDU.
ViaAir will come and go little fanfare.
If there is any international growth, I would look towards adding a Caribbean destination such as PLS or GCM.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:35 pm
by RDUDDJI
rajincajun01 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Does Envoy handle the ramp for AA at RDU?


Yes.


Not entirely true. AA does the ramp for most (all?) mainline flights now. I have some friends who work on the ramp for AA and some who work for Envoy. The way my AA friend described it, it sounds like pmUS became the AA ramp because pmAA had already been outsourced to Envoy. And as of a few months ago, AA was still hiring for the ramp.

Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2019

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:42 pm
by RDUDDJI
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
RDU-BHM? That's...random.



Random for you perhaps, but would be great for me since I go to BHM about once a month for work. :)