impilot
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 5:13 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
sirtoby wrote:

Wasn't first flight planned for late 2019 before? Does that mean a delay for EIS into 2022 then?



Source:https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2016-12-02/embraer-delays-e175-e2-entry-service-year

Excerpt:

"Embraer has moved back its schedule for entry into service of the new E175-E2 by about a year, from 2020 to 2021, due in part to the failure of U.S. major airlines to negotiate relaxed scope clauses with their pilots. The pilot contracts of all three of the airlines—United, American and Delta—stipulate a limit on maximum takeoff weight of airplanes flying at their regional affiliates. Although the current 76-seat E175 fits within those limits, the heavier E175-E2 does not, nor does the competing Mitsubishi MRJ-90."


Clearly Embraer believes that the E175-E2 will be marketable outside the US or they wouldn't move forward with it. It'll be interesting to see how many non-US sales ultimately develop for it. Hopefully plenty.


They think (hope?) scope will get relaxed in this round of pilot negotiations over the next year or 2. Scott Kirby was convinced he would make it happen at UAL and said as much publicly. I’m sure his message to embraer was no different.

To a non-pilot, a few thousand pounds difference with an otherwise same sized plane with the same seating doesn’t seem like a big obstacle to overcome with this whole scope thing, so I can see how they thought they’d get E2 scope weight concessions.

Guessing the 175E2 will have a dismal future if scope isn’t relaxed and/or if mainline refuses to take it in house. And I’d bet money neither will happen.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 5:32 pm

Right now, only the E2-195:is thriving. The industry is facinated by AirCastle's quarterly reports. Every quarter they report they do not yet have a customer.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... cript.aspx

I hope embraer picks up the sales pace or half the leased sales become at risk.

PlanesNTrains wrote:
EMBSPBR wrote:
sirtoby wrote:

Wasn't first flight planned for late 2019 before? Does that mean a delay for EIS into 2022 then?



Source:https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2016-12-02/embraer-delays-e175-e2-entry-service-year

Excerpt:

"Embraer has moved back its schedule for entry into service of the new E175-E2 by about a year, from 2020 to 2021, due in part to the failure of U.S. major airlines to negotiate relaxed scope clauses with their pilots. The pilot contracts of all three of the airlines—United, American and Delta—stipulate a limit on maximum takeoff weight of airplanes flying at their regional affiliates. Although the current 76-seat E175 fits within those limits, the heavier E175-E2 does not, nor does the competing Mitsubishi MRJ-90."


Clearly Embraer believes that the E175-E2 will be marketable outside the US or they wouldn't move forward with it. It'll be interesting to see how many non-US sales ultimately develop for it. Hopefully plenty.

Who is the launch customer? With all US3 pilots saying no to scope change, the usual suspects won't be able to opperate it.

It is a nice plane, but the pilots' groups have stipulated conditions and they are binding. Mainline will fly above 76 seats and 86,000lb.

Financing will be tough on the E2s until they expand their customer base. I wish them luck, but only the E2-195 is popular enough to take seriously.

I bet, for a steep discount, Winderoe would take the flight test aircraft. But who would take at above production cost?

Paris airshow is make or break for Embraer sales. The fact Aircastle keeps making noise every quarter is of concern.

Lightsaber
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superbizzy73
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 8:43 pm

I still think the E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any scope clause issues, are they?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 10:06 pm

superbizzy73 wrote:
I still think the E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any scope clause issues, are they?


I would love to see AS get an E190-E2 or perhaps E195-E2 but not sure it's in the cards. The E175-E2 obviously could work, but the issue becomes resale value if it never gets traction as-is. In the end, they probably are better of emulating the US3.

Not sure about deposits on the VX A320neo order - maybe move those over to A220's.
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Dash8Driver16
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 10:54 pm

Pretty sure Alaska is entering contract negotiations and that Scope is top of that list. QX has a bunch of 175's that have been upped to the 89K weight limit which has really rung the alarm bells.

I am sure the 175E2 is dead in the US. No pilot group has any reason to give in on the Scope arguement.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 12:28 am

Dash8Driver16 wrote:
Pretty sure Alaska is entering contract negotiations and that Scope is top of that list. QX has a bunch of 175's that have been upped to the 89K weight limit which has really rung the alarm bells.

I am sure the 175E2 is dead in the US. No pilot group has any reason to give in on the Scope arguement.


How long can negotiations take?

Give QX a 10% raise, cap non-QX regional flying, and add an E190-E2 rate for them. Done. :-)
L
-Dave


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Okcflyer
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 1:45 am

I never understood the E2-175 strategy. If it was just a MTOW increase covering the same pax count and range mix as current aircraft that are scope constrained, it’s probable it could be negotiated into scope contract without massive concessions. At the end of the day, the regional is still carrying the same number of pax the same distance, just more efficiently, which actually benefits mainline pilots.

However, that wasn’t the E2-175 strategy. They went with a significantly heavier wing optimized for a longer mission length and bumped the range significantly. In addition they stretch it (probably to keep the weight per pax reasonable).

As a result, only a small percentage (the longest) of existing regional routes result in lower trip costs. Trip costs are roughly equal between E1 and E2 until you start pushing the range envelop or assume very high fuel prices.

Therefore extra butts are needed onboard the E2 for to begin to make economical sense. 80 or 84 seats. Only on very high premium routes where the extra real estate can be sold as domestic first class does that work. Not usually regional jet territory anyway.

Asking for scope relief on the 76pax limit (to 80 or 84) is a massive undertaking. Forget the weight discussion, it’s elementary at this point.

The “Build it and they will come” falsehood strikes again.

Beats me.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 2:28 am

Embraer advertises 16% fuel burn improvement over E1 for a 600nm sector with 80 seats compared to 76 in the E1.

However, I understand this is the baseline E1 and not the enhanced E1 which released in 2016. The enhanced model cut burn nearly 6%.

If you drop both frames to 76 seats, the E2 is 9%. Minus the 6% a new build E1 would come with (and what the vast majority in the USA are), you’re looking at 3% fuel gain. Frame and engine costs are higher and will wipe out most of that, and that assumed $80 bbl oil.

Hence my point, E2 doesn’t make sense at 76 seats. This isn’t a 86klbs question. This is an 80 or 84 seat question. Going to be a while I’m afraid.
 
Dash8Driver16
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 9:01 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dash8Driver16 wrote:
Pretty sure Alaska is entering contract negotiations and that Scope is top of that list. QX has a bunch of 175's that have been upped to the 89K weight limit which has really rung the alarm bells.

I am sure the 175E2 is dead in the US. No pilot group has any reason to give in on the Scope arguement.


How long can negotiations take?

Give QX a 10% raise, cap non-QX regional flying, and add an E190-E2 rate for them. Done. :-)
L


It’s a descent thought! Currently they could place them at QX with out any negotiating.

AS is in negotiations not QX. From buddies I have heard the ask is a cap at 86k GW and 76 seats. Nothing about limiting the amount of 175s
 
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 11:23 pm

Dash8Driver16 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Dash8Driver16 wrote:
Pretty sure Alaska is entering contract negotiations and that Scope is top of that list. QX has a bunch of 175's that have been upped to the 89K weight limit which has really rung the alarm bells.

I am sure the 175E2 is dead in the US. No pilot group has any reason to give in on the Scope arguement.


How long can negotiations take?

Give QX a 10% raise, cap non-QX regional flying, and add an E190-E2 rate for them. Done. :-)
L


It’s a descent thought! Currently they could place them at QX with out any negotiating.

AS is in negotiations not QX. From buddies I have heard the ask is a cap at 86k GW and 76 seats. Nothing about limiting the amount of 175s

If QX already has 89k E175s flying, why would AS agree? I'm sure there will be no more increase in MTOW, but what are the pilots giving up for back tracking?

All regional are short on pilots. It was a better deal for new pilots to fly outside the US. Getting an ATP is still tough.

I do expect the 76 seat cap.

But even 89k isn't enough for the E2-175.

The future of the E2 is the E2-195. Embraer must focus on sales.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 10:52 pm

Do we know how far Azul's first is from delivery? Aren't they supposed to take the first in Q3?
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EduardoL
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 12:48 am

OA940 wrote:
Do we know how far Azul's first is from delivery? Aren't they supposed to take the first in Q3?


September
 
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 4:20 pm

EduardoL wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Do we know how far Azul's first is from delivery? Aren't they supposed to take the first in Q3?


September

This late delivery bugs me. From certification of a 2nd model in a family to EIS should be 2 to 10 weeks. We are now in the critical sales season of the year. Embraer needs good operating data to sell. Udvar Hazy usually has his team positioned full time in Paris hotels 28 days prior to the start of the airshow. So unless he is starting late, sales season started in earnest on Monday 5/20. Vendors position to show wares in the hotel suites (chairs, galley stuff, I wish I could attend as I've heard about aircraft tires turned into cocktail tables.

Selling is a perishable resource. Embraer's fate is somewhat tied to a supporting mid-size leasor, Aircastle. Aircastle needs help, that is in service data. Missing a sales opportunity at the big summer airshow is silly.

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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:44 pm

Interesting Leeham link:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/05/28/e175- ... -year-end/

The interesting tidbits, planned hockey stick production rate increase (a step function). Ability to produce 13/month (150 plus or minus at maximum surge) with a history of producing about 95 E-jets.

What I find interesting is that E2 production will exceed E1 in 2020. I also find it interesting the E2-175 still has no firm customer.

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iceberg210
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 5:28 pm

https://twitter.com/embraer/status/1133429471980269568
No firm customer but it's on the production line. I guess at some point we'll find out if the emperor has no clothes or not if it ends up as the 330-800neo flying with no customer at first (or at all).

The production advantage is one of the places where the E2 has a step up on the 220, but you have to sell them first. Also shocking to hear that the E2 will out produce the E1 in 2020 given the E1 backlog is larger than the E2 206 to 153. Wonder if a bunch of the 175E1's are pushed out a bit so carriers can convert to E2 if possible, or cancel if they don't meet scope.
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:41 pm

The E2 has even less orders than the CSeries programme before Airbus came, I never thought that! I wonder what the problem is, seems like a nice plane in that capacity category.
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mxaxai
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 10:29 pm

DLHAM wrote:
The E2 has even less orders than the CSeries programme before Airbus came, I never thought that! I wonder what the problem is, seems like a nice plane in that capacity category.

1) This capacity category is growing less than the standard narrowbody category, particularly in the emerging markets in Asia
2) The legacy airlines in the US that should be interested to replace their smaller jets face the scope clause problem
3) Most airline's fleets in this capacity category are quite young, comprised of mainly CRJ-900s and E1s
4) The current instability in Brasilian economy and politics, as well as the ongoing takeover by Boeing, might make some customers worry about long-term support. Embraer is really missing some blue chip customers, just like the CSeries was before Airbus bought it.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 2:09 am

mxaxai wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
The E2 has even less orders than the CSeries programme before Airbus came, I never thought that! I wonder what the problem is, seems like a nice plane in that capacity category.

4) The current instability in Brasilian economy and politics, as well as the ongoing takeover by Boeing, might make some customers worry about long-term support. Embraer is really missing some blue chip customers, just like the CSeries was before Airbus bought it.


Yeah, I can see how you reached that conclusion - I mean, nobody would consider Delta or Swiss to be 'blue chip customers', would they! I'd suggest that puts the CSeries at least one blue chip customer ahead of the E2 at the point of the program being sold... depending when exactly you consider the E2 program sale to Boeing happened, in which case it may even be two blue chip customers ahead at sale.
 
Someone83
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:07 pm

Widerøe is taking MSN 19020015 in a hort term lease (AFAIK during the summer). The aircraft is/was supposed to go to Fuzhou Airlines, but certification for the E2 in China seems to take a while
 
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Re: Embraer E2 Testing/Production Thread - 2019

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:10 pm

Please remember this is the Testing/Production Thread and not to discuss any orders.

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