JerseyFlyer wrote:If the rate is going down to 3.5 a month later this year, suppliers must have had notice for some time, so I am very surprised this has not leaked earlier. Other possibilities:
1 they are slowing 242t frame production because customers have asked to defer till the 251t frames come off the line in 2020
2 there is rumour confusion between A330 slowdown and A380 slowdown - the numbers look quite similar
I don’t see why this would be a surprise.
You have 38 frames for airlines that would likely take them whenever (TAP, Aircalin, Air Senegal, Kuwait Air, Arika, Guarda) but Delta and Air Asia aren’t going to take all theirs quick. Air Asia is maybe 6 or 7 a year. Delta would maybe do 10. So over the next two years you have maybe 84 slots and maybe 72 deliveries for actual airlines.
Outside of those 72 I show 61 aircraft to lease companies that likely don’t want them and 28 to Iran. That leaves 67 for Delta and Air Asia X they likely don’t want in next two years.
3.5 seems reasonable to optimistic to me for the NEO.