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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:01 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bloomberg has a 797 article, not much said but it is the type of articles that come out before the "Authority to Offer". Technically, ATO needs to happen before pricing can be discussed, but articles like this indicate the Investment & Financial Analyst media is hearing rumblings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-jetliner

I think you undersold the article a bit. I think the fact that Neeleman spoke right after seeing the Boeing presentation makes this "breaking news".

I think his positive comments about the aircraft given his tradition of being a disruptive force in the industry are noteworthy.

I don't think the 2023 date for A321XLR had been mentioned in the press yet. I think his impatience at Airbus's rate of response is news worthy.

I think the article reiterates the emphasis on low cost manufacturing. It also corroborates what we read earlier in this thread that the BoD will be given the proposal (i.e. internal launch) by end of March.

For all the fans of the cross section debates, Neeleman gave us the most lucid description of the NMA so far:

Boeing’s design features a slightly oval-shaped fuselage that saves weight and fuel by devoting more space to passengers and less to freight in the plane’s belly. A smaller version would seat 220 travelers, while a larger model would seat up to 270 people, with trip costs that are about 40 percent lower than today’s wide-body aircraft.

Neeleman is impressed by how Boeing designers “innovatively turned the fuselage, so you aren’t carrying all that structure from cargo. They claim they’re going to get the seat-mile costs of a narrow-body and have two aisles, which would be sweet if they can pull it off.”

So the track record is 100% with regard to how those who've interacted with Boeing off the record describe the aircraft's cross section. Sorry, fans of stretched narrowbodies or shrunken widebodies.

The idea that Boeing is considering getting both -6 and -7 certified at the same time is fascinating. It could be a hint that a rapid NMA program that would be quickly making way for a NSA program.

Some interesting discussion of price and demand too:

The 797 will need to be priced somewhere between Airbus’s offerings to be competitive. The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

“I have no doubt there will be demand for the aircraft,” Dimitroff said, pointing to “new opportunities for low-cost, long-haul service. I think the NMA will take that a step further.”

It's a pretty exciting time to be an av-geek.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Bloomberg has a 797 article, not much said but it is the type of articles that come out before the "Authority to Offer". Technically, ATO needs to happen before pricing can be discussed, but articles like this indicate the Investment & Financial Analyst media is hearing rumblings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-jetliner

I think you undersold the article a bit. I think the fact that Neeleman spoke right after seeing the Boeing presentation makes this "breaking news".

I think his positive comments about the aircraft given his tradition of being a disruptive force in the industry are noteworthy.

I don't think the 2023 date for A321XLR had been mentioned in the press yet. I think his impatience at Airbus's rate of response is news worthy.

I think the article reiterates the emphasis on low cost manufacturing. It also corroborates what we read earlier in this thread that the BoD will be given the proposal (i.e. internal launch) by end of March.

For all the fans of the cross section debates, Neeleman gave us the most lucid description of the NMA so far:

Boeing’s design features a slightly oval-shaped fuselage that saves weight and fuel by devoting more space to passengers and less to freight in the plane’s belly. A smaller version would seat 220 travelers, while a larger model would seat up to 270 people, with trip costs that are about 40 percent lower than today’s wide-body aircraft.

Neeleman is impressed by how Boeing designers “innovatively turned the fuselage, so you aren’t carrying all that structure from cargo. They claim they’re going to get the seat-mile costs of a narrow-body and have two aisles, which would be sweet if they can pull it off.”

So the track record is 100% with regard to how those who've interacted with Boeing off the record describe the aircraft's cross section. Sorry, fans of stretched narrowbodies or shrunken widebodies.

The idea that Boeing is considering getting both -6 and -7 certified at the same time is fascinating. It could be a hint that a rapid NMA program that would be quickly making way for a NSA program.

Some interesting discussion of price and demand too:

The 797 will need to be priced somewhere between Airbus’s offerings to be competitive. The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

“I have no doubt there will be demand for the aircraft,” Dimitroff said, pointing to “new opportunities for low-cost, long-haul service. I think the NMA will take that a step further.”

It's a pretty exciting time to be an av-geek.



one thing i'm interested in seeing is that if they certify both versions at the same time, would they then immediately get to work on a freighter variant?
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Bloomberg has a 797 article, not much said but it is the type of articles that come out before the "Authority to Offer". Technically, ATO needs to happen before pricing can be discussed, but articles like this indicate the Investment & Financial Analyst media is hearing rumblings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-jetliner

I think you undersold the article a bit. I think the fact that Neeleman spoke right after seeing the Boeing presentation makes this "breaking news".

I think his positive comments about the aircraft given his tradition of being a disruptive force in the industry are noteworthy.

I don't think the 2023 date for A321XLR had been mentioned in the press yet. I think his impatience at Airbus's rate of response is news worthy.

I think the article reiterates the emphasis on low cost manufacturing. It also corroborates what we read earlier in this thread that the BoD will be given the proposal (i.e. internal launch) by end of March.

For all the fans of the cross section debates, Neeleman gave us the most lucid description of the NMA so far:

Boeing’s design features a slightly oval-shaped fuselage that saves weight and fuel by devoting more space to passengers and less to freight in the plane’s belly. A smaller version would seat 220 travelers, while a larger model would seat up to 270 people, with trip costs that are about 40 percent lower than today’s wide-body aircraft.

Neeleman is impressed by how Boeing designers “innovatively turned the fuselage, so you aren’t carrying all that structure from cargo. They claim they’re going to get the seat-mile costs of a narrow-body and have two aisles, which would be sweet if they can pull it off.”

So the track record is 100% with regard to how those who've interacted with Boeing off the record describe the aircraft's cross section. Sorry, fans of stretched narrowbodies or shrunken widebodies.

The idea that Boeing is considering getting both -6 and -7 certified at the same time is fascinating. It could be a hint that a rapid NMA program that would be quickly making way for a NSA program.

Some interesting discussion of price and demand too:

The 797 will need to be priced somewhere between Airbus’s offerings to be competitive. The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

“I have no doubt there will be demand for the aircraft,” Dimitroff said, pointing to “new opportunities for low-cost, long-haul service. I think the NMA will take that a step further.”

It's a pretty exciting time to be an av-geek.


One of the most interesting points of his quote to me is "while a larger model would seat up to 270 people". Up to 270 could mean up to 270 single class - which means a tight light 7W a lot more likely than 8W.

It also fits a comment I recall from a Boeing executive a few years ago (that I can no longer find) - that the NMA was A321 sized plus about 30-40 seats. Not 270 seat 2 class - Boeing defines a 788 as 242 2 class/359 Single Class Max Y and AC - one of the kings of high Density squeezes in 251. The 762 is defined as 245 Single Class, 763 290 Single class.

So the NMA Large could be sized between 762/763 and NMA small between A321 and 762 - or roughly about 135-140m2 and 170-180m2.

It makes a lot of sense if they are going to reuse parts of NMA for NSA. All speculation until we see a real airplane though.

Then think of all the fun we can have debating Airbus's response!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Bloomberg has a 797 article, not much said but it is the type of articles that come out before the "Authority to Offer". Technically, ATO needs to happen before pricing can be discussed, but articles like this indicate the Investment & Financial Analyst media is hearing rumblings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-jetliner

I think you undersold the article a bit. I think the fact that Neeleman spoke right after seeing the Boeing presentation makes this "breaking news".

I think his positive comments about the aircraft given his tradition of being a disruptive force in the industry are noteworthy.

I don't think the 2023 date for A321XLR had been mentioned in the press yet. I think his impatience at Airbus's rate of response is news worthy.

I think the article reiterates the emphasis on low cost manufacturing. It also corroborates what we read earlier in this thread that the BoD will be given the proposal (i.e. internal launch) by end of March.

For all the fans of the cross section debates, Neeleman gave us the most lucid description of the NMA so far:

Boeing’s design features a slightly oval-shaped fuselage that saves weight and fuel by devoting more space to passengers and less to freight in the plane’s belly. A smaller version would seat 220 travelers, while a larger model would seat up to 270 people, with trip costs that are about 40 percent lower than today’s wide-body aircraft.

Neeleman is impressed by how Boeing designers “innovatively turned the fuselage, so you aren’t carrying all that structure from cargo. They claim they’re going to get the seat-mile costs of a narrow-body and have two aisles, which would be sweet if they can pull it off.”

So the track record is 100% with regard to how those who've interacted with Boeing off the record describe the aircraft's cross section. Sorry, fans of stretched narrowbodies or shrunken widebodies.

The idea that Boeing is considering getting both -6 and -7 certified at the same time is fascinating. It could be a hint that a rapid NMA program that would be quickly making way for a NSA program.

Some interesting discussion of price and demand too:

The 797 will need to be priced somewhere between Airbus’s offerings to be competitive. The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

“I have no doubt there will be demand for the aircraft,” Dimitroff said, pointing to “new opportunities for low-cost, long-haul service. I think the NMA will take that a step further.”

It's a pretty exciting time to be an av-geek.



Sorry - duplicate post - please delete


One of the most interesting points of his quote to me is "while a larger model would seat up to 270 people". Up to 270 could mean up to 270 single class - which means a tight light 7W a lot more likely than 8W.

It also fits a comment I recall from a Boeing executive a few years ago (that I can no longer find) - that the NMA was A321 sized plus about 30-40 seats. Not 270 seat 2 class - Boeing defines a 788 as 242 2 class/359 Single Class Max Y and AC - one of the kings of high Density squeezes in 251. The 762 is defined as 245 Single Class, 763 290 Single class.

So the NMA Large could be sized between 762/763 and NMA small between A321 and 762 - or roughly about 135-140m2 and 170-180m2.

It makes a lot of sense if they are going to reuse parts of NMA for NSA. All speculation until we see a real airplane though.

Then think of all the fun we can have debating Airbus's response!
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Bloomberg has a 797 article, not much said but it is the type of articles that come out before the "Authority to Offer". Technically, ATO needs to happen before pricing can be discussed, but articles like this indicate the Investment & Financial Analyst media is hearing rumblings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-jetliner

I think you undersold the article a bit. I think the fact that Neeleman spoke right after seeing the Boeing presentation makes this "breaking news".

I think his positive comments about the aircraft given his tradition of being a disruptive force in the industry are noteworthy.

I don't think the 2023 date for A321XLR had been mentioned in the press yet. I think his impatience at Airbus's rate of response is news worthy.

I think the article reiterates the emphasis on low cost manufacturing. It also corroborates what we read earlier in this thread that the BoD will be given the proposal (i.e. internal launch) by end of March.

For all the fans of the cross section debates, Neeleman gave us the most lucid description of the NMA so far:

Boeing’s design features a slightly oval-shaped fuselage that saves weight and fuel by devoting more space to passengers and less to freight in the plane’s belly. A smaller version would seat 220 travelers, while a larger model would seat up to 270 people, with trip costs that are about 40 percent lower than today’s wide-body aircraft.

Neeleman is impressed by how Boeing designers “innovatively turned the fuselage, so you aren’t carrying all that structure from cargo. They claim they’re going to get the seat-mile costs of a narrow-body and have two aisles, which would be sweet if they can pull it off.”

So the track record is 100% with regard to how those who've interacted with Boeing off the record describe the aircraft's cross section. Sorry, fans of stretched narrowbodies or shrunken widebodies.

The idea that Boeing is considering getting both -6 and -7 certified at the same time is fascinating. It could be a hint that a rapid NMA program that would be quickly making way for a NSA program.

Some interesting discussion of price and demand too:

The 797 will need to be priced somewhere between Airbus’s offerings to be competitive. The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

“I have no doubt there will be demand for the aircraft,” Dimitroff said, pointing to “new opportunities for low-cost, long-haul service. I think the NMA will take that a step further.”

It's a pretty exciting time to be an av-geek.


Nothing more exciting than the 'birth' of an airplane. Part of my engineering business is designing fiberglass tanks and ductwork, so when the 787 was introduced it was quite exciting as composites are an excellent choice for pressure vessels. It is interesting how the general market and industry was nearly the same with lots of 'its not happening' and 'they've been talking about this for years' being quite prevalent. A good quote from the article, Neeleman is the kind that rarely uses the terms 'great' and 'impressed'.

“I had a briefing from Boeing and I thought it was great,” Neeleman said during a recent visit to Chicago to tout Portugal’s TAP airline, one of his holdings. That’s noteworthy, coming from an executive who has mostly favored Airbus jets at startups such as JetBlue Airways Corp., Brazil’s Azul SA and Moxy, the code name for his latest U.S. project.


Neeleman is someone that wants facts and values, but before ATO one cannot speak facts and values without getting a visit from the SEC. But reading between the lines the launch pricing will be like $75M for the smaller and $80M for the larger, he also saw estimated performance numbers that he liked.

So for several years now the fuselage has been this flat oval, it seems that this has become a settled feature of the plane. My bet is that it will be about 4" wider than the current 767.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:55 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
But reading between the lines the launch pricing will be like $75M for the smaller and $80M for the larger, he also saw estimated performance numbers that he liked.

Thanks again for posting the article, Jay. I hope I didn't come across as being too negative. I agree the birth of an aircraft is a fascinating and perhaps even joyous time. I can see the connection to fiberglass pressure vessels. If you like this kind of stuff, you probably are a fan of Rocket Labs, no?

As for pricing, we can use the quote above in conjunction with your post:

The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million

It'll be interesting to see if the actual price paid falls in that $75M-$80M window.
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jagraham
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Re: Boeing 797

Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:10 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
A reworked 767 is too close to the 787. They really just need to put a new wing and engines on a 757 with a little longer fuselage than the 200 with 787 style cockpit and whatever improvements they could make without spending billions on development. A 757 with a new wing and new engines would fly farther than the A321. A clean sheet design will take the 6-8 years before we see deliveries

It is not too close in fact it sits perfectly underneith.
762 160m2
763 190m2
787-8 232m2
787-9 265m2

The 787 family will grow in capability with new engines with the 787-9 and 787-10 capturing the vast majority of orders. Most predict Boeing will simply stop pushing/offering the 787-8 as it is the lowest profit model with many unique parts.

The 797 will then have a nice big gap between the 737-10 and 787-9


Boeing is using the AA 788 order to turn the 788 into a 789 shrink. They haven’t given up on the 788 yet.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
Thanks again for posting the article, Jay. I hope I didn't come across as being too negative. I agree the birth of an aircraft is a fascinating and perhaps even joyous time. I can see the connection to fiberglass pressure vessels. If you like this kind of stuff, you probably are a fan of Rocket Labs, no?

As for pricing, we can use the quote above in conjunction with your post:

The A321LR goes for about $60 million with all the bells and whistles, while a wide-body A330-800 is typically priced at about $100 million

It'll be interesting to see if the actual price paid falls in that $75M-$80M window.


You didn't come across as negative, actually you were positive.

I was quite interested in rockets back in the late '80s, I was working on the facility upgrades for the D5 missile back then and got to tour LM's Sunnyvale office. The composite shell on them was just a container for the propellant, not exciting. We remarked on how things on it were quite basic, the stainless hose clamps could be picked up at NAPA by appearance. The coolest thing is the nose cone is made of spruce plywood up to almost the top where there is a 16" diameter bayonet mount. That mount is the lift connection for the 65 ton missile when lowered into the tube. Once in the cap has a spike that extends at launch that creates a virtual nose cone. Right now I follow rockets but with less interest compared to planes.

A cool thing with composites is it is additive manufacturing, like 3D printing. The success of both is very dependent on automation, each drop or strand is placed by a programmed motion. But to be the most successful the part needs to be designed to be 3D printed.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:08 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
I was quite interested in rockets back in the late '80s...

Thanks again. I won't take things too far OT but still I want to say that Rocket Labs uses a 3D printed rocket engine along with CFRP structures. This article is over a year old but describes the tech fairly well. This video is long but it's one of the best tech interviews I've ever watched. They have such a strong focus on their goals and have made some very interesting design/engineering trade offs to meet these goals.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:16 pm

Apparently Boeing said today formal launch won't be until 2020 - but Authority to offer is still speculated to happen before Paris. I guess that makes sense and then I guess we would at least see what it is.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:25 pm

Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:40 pm

morrisond wrote:
Apparently Boeing said today formal launch won't be until 2020 - but Authority to offer is still speculated to happen before Paris. I guess that makes sense and then I guess we would at least see what it is.


All is actually very positive for Boeing!

3-2-1 ...

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/record-boeing-earnings-soar-past-wall-street-expectations/
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:46 pm

So it reads like authority to offer in 19, industrial launch and contact signings with suppliers in 2020.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:51 pm

morrisond wrote:
Apparently Boeing said today formal launch won't be until 2020 - but Authority to offer is still speculated to happen before Paris. I guess that makes sense and then I guess we would at least see what it is.

Link is at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKCN1PO2KS which says:

“So this year’s decision is what we call authority to offer,” Muilenburg told analysts on a conference call after the company reported better-than-expected results. “That’s based on the business case and our ability to go and have deep, detailed discussions with customers.”

“And then, depending on the market response and our ability to build the right kind of group of launch customers, then we get to an official launch, or authority to launch, decision next year,” he said.

Seems we as non-customers won't get much info till the "official launch".
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:06 pm

Boeing to decide in 2020 whether it will launch new mid-sized jet


could as well be translated as:

"Boeing has serious doubts about the 797 business case
that they've been working on for the last 6 years"


I see a fresh look emerging & maybe Leahy is right: smaller. The 737-9 &-10 are maybe honestly not good enough to replace from 2030.

I think this delay is disappointing for Airbus. They would have loved Boeing betting on a twin aisle, oval, composites, capable, advanced & expense 797 for the 500-2000NM segment. Now, maybe, they are getting smart after all.. bummer.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:21 pm

keesje wrote:
Boeing to decide in 2020 whether it will launch new mid-sized jet


could as well be translated as:

"Boeing has serious doubts about the 797 business case
that they've been working on for the last 6 years"


I see a fresh look emerging & maybe Leahy is right: smaller. The 737-9 &-10 are maybe honestly not good enough to replace from 2030.

I think this delay is disappointing for Airbus. They would have loved Boeing betting on a twin aisle, oval, composites, capable, advanced & expense 797 for the 500-2000NM segment. Now, maybe, they are getting smart after all.. bummer.


Or maybe they continue the design work while offering the plane to airlines so they can have a significant number of commitments when the plane is launched. With the design being further along in the process at launch, a 5 year gap between launch and delivery is possible just like what was done with the 777. The 777 was launched in 1990, first flew in 1994 and delivered in 1995.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:40 pm

Isn't there 1,000 people working on it already as well?
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:30 pm

morrisond wrote:
Isn't there 1,000 people working on it already as well?


Yes, we have seen many upbeat articles and news recently. Not in line with this latest 2020 launch decision.

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-development/suppliers-at-arms-length-as-boeing-heads-for-797-decision/

There could be many reasons for that:

- The latest 797 design is relatively heavy & expensive for shorter flights
- Embraer integration / investment requires priority to fully pay-off
- The engine manufacturers indicate they have ready a 50k engine around 2026 earliest
- The 737 MAX need a replacement around 2027-28
- New A321 versions will reduce the 797 outlook by a few thousand on the lower of the segment
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:39 pm

This all paints an interesting picture of the risk environment for making a new type. We saw from all of the A380, 787, and A350 that a new type has become a far more time-consuming and expensive affair than it was in the past. I interpret this as Boeing making a judgment that it is willing to accept the risk associated with doing way more development work before the final launch decision than it did on previous types, in exchange for getting more information from customers pre-launch about exactly what they are willing to pay for the product Boeing is developing. As a side benefit, Boeing is able to change course until the official launch decision, and thereby to preclude a final response from Airbus for a bit longer.

The best scenario for Boeing is that it launches at Farnborough 2020 with large firm orders from all of the US3 and several other majors. The worst scenario is that it can only scrape together a small group of orders, in which case it will probably make a no-go decision and write off the R&D work to date, to the extent it can't be applied to NSA.

Overall, the 797 has been way more interesting thus far as a story about the business of making airliners than as an airliner.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:55 pm

seabosdca wrote:
As a side benefit, Boeing is able to change course until the official launch decision, and thereby to preclude a final response from Airbus for a bit longer.


Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019

Image

If they have 6500 NEO's is the backlog and e.g. 10% is upgraded to XLR or A322 that's a good start. Maybe e.g. AC & UA will jump in too.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:00 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019


101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:05 pm

I'm sensing conflicting reports today. I also think the global economic outlook looks different today than it did even 6 months ago. Apple's Tim Cook and his bellwether statements regarding China and iPhone sales being the tipping point. Boeing has to be even more careful if airlines are tightening their belts and looking at short-term profit shortfalls. (The Fed will probably hold rates steady as another sign of stagnation.) I think Boeing was ready to go in 2019 from a summer 2018 standpoint but perhaps not from a winter 2019 standpoint. The "iffiness" of it all also puts pressure on airlines too: "You want this? You really want this? Show us or pay Airbus XL prices!"

The thing will come when it comes. Or not. Either way, Keesje can put away his lube and Kleenex.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:22 pm

seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019


101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.


I remember 8 years ago, Boeing was working with the airlines to fully understand how the NSA would look and would take another half year to take a deliberate decision. The NEO was downplayed by Boeing, many lessors and the usual analysts. Then they sold 1000 NEO's at the Paris Airshow and hundreds to AA shortly after. Boeing never fully recovered. Similar situation now.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:43 pm

keesje wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019


101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.


I remember 8 years ago, Boeing was working with the airlines to fully understand how the NSA would look and would take another half year to take a deliberate decision. The NEO was downplayed by Boeing, many lessors and the usual analysts. Then they sold 1000 NEO's at the Paris Airshow and hundreds to AA shortly after. Boeing never fully recovered. Similar situation now.


"Boeing has never recovered"? Get real!!

Airbus is doing well with the 320/321. No one is denying that. Boeing is doing OK or better with the 737MAX and 787s. The 737/320 are both getting a little long in the tooth and needing refreshing. But both doing amazingly well in their dotage.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:22 am

keesje wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019


101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.


I remember 8 years ago, Boeing was working with the airlines to fully understand how the NSA would look and would take another half year to take a deliberate decision. The NEO was downplayed by Boeing, many lessors and the usual analysts. Then they sold 1000 NEO's at the Paris Airshow and hundreds to AA shortly after. Boeing never fully recovered. Similar situation now.



LOL the immense financial advantage boeing has kinda doesn't jive with your claim boeing has never recovered.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:31 am

musman9853 wrote:
keesje wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.


I remember 8 years ago, Boeing was working with the airlines to fully understand how the NSA would look and would take another half year to take a deliberate decision. The NEO was downplayed by Boeing, many lessors and the usual analysts. Then they sold 1000 NEO's at the Paris Airshow and hundreds to AA shortly after. Boeing never fully recovered. Similar situation now.



LOL the immense financial advantage boeing has kinda doesn't jive with your claim boeing has never recovered.

Nor do the 2018 widebody sales numbers. They would indicate that it is Airbus on the edge of the abyss and it is Boeing eating their lunch.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:34 am

Before anyone gets too excited by Boeing just having Authority to offer this year and not a formal launch - is this not just Boeing's normal process and what they do when launching a new program?

Did they not do the same with 787 and 777x? MAX was different as they were working on NSA and had to respond to NEO - but is this not what we should expect and take it as a good sign and assuming they gather a sufficient number of launch orders it goes ahead?
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:21 am

QuarkFly wrote:
Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?


No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:24 am

Going to take the unpopular position - I don't see a lot of upside for Boeing but lots of potential risks. A niche aircraft isn't what they should risk the company on. It will either cost too much or cannibalize some 787 sales. There might be a tiny sweet spot in the middle but that will be excessively hard to hit for the relatively small reward involved.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:08 am

seahawk wrote:

No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Riiiiight... coughcough787 coughcoughfirst flight in 2007 coughcoughentry in service 2008... coughcoughlongest delay in commercial jet's development history....

Based on the above, I give the 797 at least 6 years from commercial launch until entry in service date.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:34 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Riiiiight... coughcough787 coughcoughfirst flight in 2007 coughcoughentry in service 2008... coughcoughlongest delay in commercial jet's development history....

Based on the above, I give the 797 at least 6 years from commercial launch until entry in service date.


Boeing will have learned a lot from that.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:22 pm

seahawk wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Riiiiight... coughcough787 coughcoughfirst flight in 2007 coughcoughentry in service 2008... coughcoughlongest delay in commercial jet's development history....

Based on the above, I give the 797 at least 6 years from commercial launch until entry in service date.


Boeing will have learned a lot from that.


The biggest lesson was shifting risk to the subs including design responsibility just means the risk comes back in spades if the supplier fails.

How many subs did Boeing have to buy out - The Italians, Voight, and some others. Also, the MBA's were in charge, they forgot to buy the fasteners that are needed by the boatload.

This discussion about delaying launch but not Authority to offer. It would allow for performance to be updated as well as schedule, minimizing the cost of delays or performance misses.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:56 pm

aviationaware wrote:
Going to take the unpopular position - I don't see a lot of upside for Boeing but lots of potential risks. A niche aircraft isn't what they should risk the company on. It will either cost too much or cannibalize some 787 sales. There might be a tiny sweet spot in the middle but that will be excessively hard to hit for the relatively small reward involved.


That's assuming that NMA is sized to be unique with a unique cross section(8W).

If it's a tight light 7W that can be reused on NSA where they should be able to sell 10,000+ over it's service life - not that much risk.

You are right though - the risk is they make it too big (8W) and it does Cannibalize sales of 787.

Just like 787 is too close to 777X and is hurting that. IMO 777x should have been a 11W oval with unbeatable efficiency to give airlines a reason to size up. You bump up MTOW on 787-10 and it can take over a lot of 777x missions.

Then they would have three nice cross section lineup - 7W(NMA/NSA), 9W 787 and 11W (777/747) replacement and make a great package freighter.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:37 pm

seahawk wrote:
No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.

FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ar-455409/ ) has more remarks.

CEO again states 2025 target is being held.

Personally I think the process is being drawn out to continue to apply pressure on the supply chain to reduce prices, or to find ways to bypass the traditional suppliers using in house resources or third parties.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:59 pm

All this talk about possible EIS in 2025. How can it possibly take that long?

The Boeing 747-100, designed using a pencil and a slide rule took less than three years to fly. Most of the 797 design is probably already done by now. The 747 didn't even have a FAL built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

Boeing agreed to deliver the first 747 to Pan Am by the end of 1969. The delivery date left 28 months to design the aircraft, which was two-thirds of the normal time.[40] The schedule was so fast-paced that the people who worked on it were given the nickname "The Incredibles".[41] Developing the aircraft was such a technical and financial challenge that management was said to have "bet the company" when it started the project.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:26 pm

uta999 wrote:
All this talk about possible EIS in 2025. How can it possibly take that long?

The Boeing 747-100, designed using a pencil and a slide rule took less than three years to fly. Most of the 797 design is probably already done by now. The 747 didn't even have a FAL built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

Boeing agreed to deliver the first 747 to Pan Am by the end of 1969. The delivery date left 28 months to design the aircraft, which was two-thirds of the normal time.[40] The schedule was so fast-paced that the people who worked on it were given the nickname "The Incredibles".[41] Developing the aircraft was such a technical and financial challenge that management was said to have "bet the company" when it started the project.


The 787 took 7 years from launch to delivery. The A350 took almost 10 years.

I think Boeing wants to avoid the costly delays that both programs had including the relaunch of the A350.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:39 pm

Boeing probably is playing it smart. A large part of Airbus product strategy will depend on wheter or not the NMA is launched. This also influences what options Airbus has with an A380NEO for instance and therefore the bussiness case of stretching production till the second half of the next decade. Also many things Airbus could do with the A320 series and where it now has engineering and other resources available for (unlike post 2025) are now being stalled because of the delayed NMA decision.

By delaying NMA launch while trying to maintain 2025 EIS Boeing is compromising Airbus engineering to market power in the pre-2025 periode.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:46 pm

Plethora of Pluses

While this is not a 321 (plus whatever suffixes) it does play into Boeing and Airbus strategy as the 797 moves forward.
If it looks like 2500 sales over 20 years the 321 will suffice
If it looks like 5000 plus, Airbus will have to do more than a new and improved 321NEO plus plus .....
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:51 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Boeing probably is playing it smart. A large part of Airbus product strategy will depend on wheter or not the NMA is launched. This also influences what options Airbus has with an A380NEO for instance and therefore the bussiness case of stretching production till the second half of the next decade. Also many things Airbus could do with the A320 series and where it now has engineering and other resources available for (unlike post 2025) are now being stalled because of the delayed NMA decision.

By delaying NMA launch while trying to maintain 2025 EIS Boeing is compromising Airbus engineering to market power in the pre-2025 periode.


In addition, the more time Boeing spends in the "pre-commercial launch" phase the better they understand the actual cost to manufacture and the lower they will be able to price the aircraft and ensure a reasonable profit. My source indicates that this is a true statement (that the estimated cost of production keeps dropping as the model different things and settling on their concept for certain things). The lower the NMA price - the larger the market and the less attractive an A321 becomes. I know that one of the concepts discussed by the NMA project managers and overall designers has been "what if we can build it at a price that makes the A321 price irrelevant." My source for that quote has never indicated if they have achieved that... but has repeated it several times. It's clearly a goal of Boeing - and they want to be as close as possible if they cannot achieve it.

I personally believe that Boeing has already essentially decided that they wish to essentially own this market segment. There will not be enough demand for a 2nd entrant into it. The NMA may not be a hugely profitable aircraft; but, it will be profitable. Boeing is totally unconcerned about loosing the lower end of the 787 market and some of the upper end of the 737 market to the NMA. There are strategic benefits to owning a wide swath of the market share; and the NMA and 787 combination will do that for a very large swath (with competition for the upper end of the 787 with the A350).

I have also picked up hints from my source that Boeing (either directly or through other companies) is likely ordering (or very soon to order) long lead time production equipment or tooling blanks with the idea that it's for the NMA to eliminate delays on key items (such equipment/blanks are generic enough that they could be repurposed to other things).

I personally have done business with a tool and die maker company who was producing something like 80% of all the landing gear forge dies 15 years ago; and toured their shop multiple times. They told me then that the blanks had a 18 month lead time and increasing at that time (they projected that 2 year lead time was plausible). Also, one of the reasons they were successful as a company was that they had the resources to order blanks (with a substantial down payment) for which they did not yet have any orders booked to make the dies. That they got almost 50% of their landing gear die orders because they had the blanks scheduled to arrive and could produce a die on a shorter schedule than others who would have to order the blanks. The company I worked with at the time used this company to do machining on large tube-sheet forgings for large power plant Feedwater Heaters (think 1.5 - 2 m in diameter and up to 0.5 m thick finished). Also ring forgings of similar Diameters to make Flanges.

I suspect that in addition to all the design work going into this up front that Boeing is going to sprinkle some $$$ getting key long term item production gear and tooling blanks so that they realistically can make the 2025 schedule.

Of course I could be wrong on the overall intent of Boeing. Perhaps this is just a safety measure at this stage to have a long time between "Offer" and "Launch." If the expected orders do not materialize in the "offer" stage; then Boeing can back out of the formal launch and invest $10+ Billion of their cash elsewhere. However, I suspect the former tactical reasons by Taxi645 and continued lower cost are what is going on here (good tactics are used to implement successful strategic goals)

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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:54 pm

uta999 wrote:
All this talk about possible EIS in 2025. How can it possibly take that long?

The Boeing 747-100, designed using a pencil and a slide rule took less than three years to fly. Most of the 797 design is probably already done by now. The 747 didn't even have a FAL built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

Boeing agreed to deliver the first 747 to Pan Am by the end of 1969. The delivery date left 28 months to design the aircraft, which was two-thirds of the normal time.[40] The schedule was so fast-paced that the people who worked on it were given the nickname "The Incredibles".[41] Developing the aircraft was such a technical and financial challenge that management was said to have "bet the company" when it started the project.


That was a record time in launch to delivery but we have to remember that the 747 was developed for the US military very large strategic transport aircraft competition in the mid-'60s, which Boeing lost out to Lockheed C-5, so most of the R&D were done prior to commercial launch.

I concur that most of the 797 basic design is close to done and I think Boeing could do the 797 in the time frame often mentioned, 2025~2026, despite needing to meet stricter safety standards compared to when the 747-100 was launched.

As an aviation enthusiast, looking forward to the 797.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:23 pm

seahawk wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:

Riiiiight... coughcough787 coughcoughfirst flight in 2007 coughcoughentry in service 2008... coughcoughlongest delay in commercial jet's development history....

Based on the above, I give the 797 at least 6 years from commercial launch until entry in service date.


Boeing will have learned a lot from that.


Riiight...
"We've learned a lot and the 787 will fly soon" - Randy Baseler circa mid- 2008. The 787 didn't fly until the end of 2009. So...

...I'll believe it when I'll see it. Until then - EIS 6 years from commercial launch until entry into service stands in my opinion. And no Boeing-paid troll-talk will convince me otherwise, I'm too experienced for that.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:41 pm

Don't forget that Boeing does not have control over the engine development. So 2025 might be the earliest date in which a new generation of engines can be made available.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:50 pm

kengo wrote:
uta999 wrote:
All this talk about possible EIS in 2025. How can it possibly take that long?

The Boeing 747-100, designed using a pencil and a slide rule took less than three years to fly. Most of the 797 design is probably already done by now. The 747 didn't even have a FAL built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

Boeing agreed to deliver the first 747 to Pan Am by the end of 1969. The delivery date left 28 months to design the aircraft, which was two-thirds of the normal time.[40] The schedule was so fast-paced that the people who worked on it were given the nickname "The Incredibles".[41] Developing the aircraft was such a technical and financial challenge that management was said to have "bet the company" when it started the project.


That was a record time in launch to delivery but we have to remember that the 747 was developed for the US military very large strategic transport aircraft competition in the mid-'60s, which Boeing lost out to Lockheed C-5, so most of the R&D were done prior to commercial launch.

I concur that most of the 797 basic design is close to done and I think Boeing could do the 797 in the time frame often mentioned, 2025~2026, despite needing to meet stricter safety standards compared to when the 747-100 was launched.

As an aviation enthusiast, looking forward to the 797.


I don't think that's right. I don't have Sutter's book in front of me, but I seem to recall he specifically counters that idea. IOW, there was virtually no overlap in design.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:54 pm

keesje wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus probably will launch & sell / convert hundreds of 101t MTOW XLR/ Plus/ A322NEO versions at the Paris Airshow 2019


101t A321XLR with a redesigned center fuel tank? Absolutely (although I wouldn't expect "hundreds" at once). It's a low-risk, high-upside development that can sell regardless of what Boeing does with the 797.

A321+ or A322? Not in 2019.


I remember 8 years ago, Boeing was working with the airlines to fully understand how the NSA would look and would take another half year to take a deliberate decision. The NEO was downplayed by Boeing, many lessors and the usual analysts. Then they sold 1000 NEO's at the Paris Airshow and hundreds to AA shortly after. Boeing never fully recovered. Similar situation now.



8 years ago resonates with me as that is when I initiated my position in BA. The risk at the time was the 787 and as I got comfortable that the risk had been managed I jumped in. A lot of what I learned was on A Net. Very thankful!


Here is an article that talks about what BA's Financials mean for future projects. Clearly disruption is ahead and whatever they may do on the 797 I think their are well positioned to gain first mover advantages.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ectations/
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:05 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:

Riiiiight... coughcough787 coughcoughfirst flight in 2007 coughcoughentry in service 2008... coughcoughlongest delay in commercial jet's development history....

Based on the above, I give the 797 at least 6 years from commercial launch until entry in service date.


Boeing will have learned a lot from that.


Riiight...
"We've learned a lot and the 787 will fly soon" - Randy Baseler circa mid- 2008. The 787 didn't fly until the end of 2009. So...

...I'll believe it when I'll see it. Until then - EIS 6 years from commercial launch until entry into service stands in my opinion. And no Boeing-paid troll-talk will convince me otherwise, I'm too experienced for that.


I do not know how they plan to move forward. Maybe they have an engine OEM that can make it, maybe they plan on doing more things in house and can already move forward with those before official launch. I know it is unconventional, but imho the 797 needs to be unconventional to be a success. You do not build a widebody with single aisle economics in a conventional way.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:17 pm

morrisond wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
Going to take the unpopular position - I don't see a lot of upside for Boeing but lots of potential risks. A niche aircraft isn't what they should risk the company on. It will either cost too much or cannibalize some 787 sales. There might be a tiny sweet spot in the middle but that will be excessively hard to hit for the relatively small reward involved.


That's assuming that NMA is sized to be unique with a unique cross section(8W).

If it's a tight light 7W that can be reused on NSA where they should be able to sell 10,000+ over it's service life - not that much risk.

You are right though - the risk is they make it too big (8W) and it does Cannibalize sales of 787.

Just like 787 is too close to 777X and is hurting that. IMO 777x should have been a 11W oval with unbeatable efficiency to give airlines a reason to size up. You bump up MTOW on 787-10 and it can take over a lot of 777x missions.

Then they would have three nice cross section lineup - 7W(NMA/NSA), 9W 787 and 11W (777/747) replacement and make a great package freighter.


Cannibalization of the 787-8 will not be an issue. The 787 is a much larger and much more capable aircraft at longer ranges while carrying more passengers and payload, while the 797 will be more efficient at shorter ranges. Even if the 797 does out compete the 787-8 for some customers, it's still a sale and a win for Boeing, as now there's a Boeing jet filling that niche and not say, a lightweight A330NEO derivative. Finally, Boeing has plenty of time to sell more 787-8s before the 797 achieves significant share against it, and by the time it does, Boeing will likely be looking at a refresh of the 787 line anyways, which would give them the opportunity to reposition the 787-8 if there's too much overlap with the 797.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:29 pm

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKCN1PP2NH tells us of serious doubts about the future of the A380: Airbus is considering shutting the A380 factories sooner than planned.

What does this suggest with regard to the 797?

1) Big aircraft are dinosaurs, the middle of the market is where the growth is

-- OR --

2) The global economic climate is a challenge, investment should only be done after much due diligence

-- OR --

3) Other?
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbus-emirates-a380-exclusive/exclusive-airbus-a380-under-threat-as-emirates-weighs-rejigged-order-sources-idUKKCN1PP2NH tells us of serious doubts about the future of the A380: Airbus is considering shutting the A380 factories sooner than planned.

What does this suggest with regard to the 797?

1) Big aircraft are dinosaurs, the middle of the market is where the growth is

-- OR --

2) The global economic climate is a challenge, investment should only be done after much due diligence

-- OR --

3) Other?


My view (and note my changed wording for point #1 to better reflect the realities).

1) Very large 4 engine passenger aircraft are going extinct like the dinosaurs did (they are not yet extinct). Growth is in smaller aircraft (of which the middle of the market is part of; and is a realistic area of future growth). While I foresee a dip in the largest 777 size market for a while as airlines "right size" their fleets due to the better availability of aircraft size options (787-10 and A350 -900/1000), that size range could change and grow larger in future years down the road.

2) The global economic climate is a challenge, investment should only be done after much due diligence

I also point out that Boeing appears to be doing #2 in excruciating long time detail with the NMA...

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:23 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-buys-time-with-2020-nma-launch-timeline-455456/

George Dimitroff, head of valuations at FlightGlobal's Flight Ascend Consultancy, stops short of calling Boeing's newly-disclosed timeline a delay. The move gives Boeing time to find customers and further define the aircraft, he says.

"The decision to offer means they can effectively start selling it, but they are giving themselves another year before they actually commit to building it,' Dimitroff says. "They clearly want to be sure they can kick it off with some large order commitments (even if letters of intent) before they start investing serious money in design and testing."


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"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:13 pm

The very simple thing is that Boeing is delaying the decision in regards to launching the 797. It is déjà vu. 2017 it was supposed to launch at the Paris air show. 2018 it was supposed to be launched at Farnborough. Than the talk was about Paris airshow in 2019. Now it is moved to the end of this year, not a launch, but the authorization to offer, with launch perhaps in 2020.

If the business case would be there and the configuration fixed, that frame would be launched. IMO there is no business case for a single configuration and the expectations of airlines to far apart.
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