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william
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 2:14 pm

The question what will the Union want in return for single pilot ops. Probably a cap on the flight length, like 2 hours.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 2:17 pm

"The researchers said that given the NMA would start from a completely fresh design, airline executives see scope for just one pilot to be physically sat in the plane.

A second pilot would be ground based and be able to “monitor several aircraft” at the same time.

Reducing the number of pilots from an airline’s payroll could save a company millions of dollars in salaries and training costs.

The Jefferies note, released Sunday, claimed the technology to do this is still 10 years away but Boeing customers would find the capability “valuable.”"
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 2:18 pm

On the 797, John Ostrower has some insides:

- Gate 3 milestones reviews would have been held weeks ago.
- No proposal to board of directors
- Boeing wants no change to the schedule
- No decisions are taken by leadership, attention consumed by 737MAX
- Some fear lessons learned from the 787 development might erode from memory over time

https://theaircurrent.com/company-culture/inside-boeing-sadness-frustration-anger-uncertainty-focus-after-737-max-crashes/
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 2:27 pm

On a larger capacity plane, and the NMA would be one, I suspect that the costs of a pilot are not all that percentage of the cost of a ticket. For shorter flights on regional flights raising the limits for a single pilot from 12 to 20 would likely be more significant.
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 201

Mon May 20, 2019 3:01 pm

Keesje

You made a mistake in you summary. Let me correct the first bullet for you

keesje wrote:

- Gate 3 milestones reviews would have been held weeks ago.


Corrected version from the article

- The program held its Gate 3 milestone review several weeks ago, stopping just short of bringing its proposal to the board of directors for its green-light, according to two people familiar with the reviews. “They just didn’t formally close [the development gate] due to the Max situation,
 
BlatantEcho
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 3:15 pm

Sounds like presentation to the board shortly and maybe authorization to offer at next board meeting??
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 3:22 pm

BlatantEcho wrote:
Sounds like presentation to the board shortly and maybe authorization to offer at next board meeting??


seems likely. there were rumors that ato was supposed to be offered at the march board meeting. wouldve made sense to delay it based on the max grounding.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 201

Mon May 20, 2019 3:28 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Keesje

You made a mistake in you summary. Let me correct the first bullet for you

keesje wrote:

- Gate 3 milestones reviews would have been held weeks ago.


Corrected version from the article

- The program held its Gate 3 milestone review several weeks ago, stopping just short of bringing its proposal to the board of directors for its green-light, according to two people familiar with the reviews. “They just didn’t formally close [the development gate] due to the Max situation,


I fail to see wath needs to be corrected, few weeks iso several, brought without approval, according to two person familiar with the reviews, didn't formally close. You are free to read / believe more then is claimed. of course. But I wouldn't "speculate" to much without "official Boeing confirmation" :wink2:
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pugman211
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 3:41 pm

Single pilot ops will never happen in commercial flights. Too many fault modes to guarantee safe operation, not to mention the human factors element, fatigue, pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.

Single person ops may work on many other industries like railways or automotive. But those platforms are on a fixed program, fixed route - something that can be stopped with minimal disruption, you don't have that luxury when flying at X thousand feet above terra firma.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 6:55 pm

pugman211 wrote:
pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.


If you come at it from the other end, pilot suicide can be avoided if you have ground control able to override pilot control (for emergency purpose only).

As for fatigue, with a ground control, you can rotate/replace co-pilot at greater intervals as there is no restriction of having the co-pilot on site all the time. In fact, you can in theory have more than one co-pilot in the room which in some case may benefit with more brain power available in the immediate area to trouble shoot issues.

You would probably have to implement this at the same time as autonomous flight as the worst case scenario of incapacitated pilot and failed communication with the co-pilot, you will need one last option to get the airplane safely back on the ground.

bt
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Scarebus34
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 7:21 pm

Analysts now believe that the EIS for the NMA might be as late as 2028 and Boeing will not announce the aircraft for several more years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/jefferi ... risis.html
 
icareflies
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 4:56 pm

I do see the 797 being delayed a lot because Boeing is going to have to save lots of cash to pay airlines compensations, victims law suit, production over costs and other fees. I wonder how much the insurance will be able to cover.
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Elementalism
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 5:04 pm

pugman211 wrote:
Single pilot ops will never happen in commercial flights. Too many fault modes to guarantee safe operation, not to mention the human factors element, fatigue, pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.

Single person ops may work on many other industries like railways or automotive. But those platforms are on a fixed program, fixed route - something that can be stopped with minimal disruption, you don't have that luxury when flying at X thousand feet above terra firma.


At one time they said we could never fly wide bodies with 2 pilots.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 5:05 pm

bikerthai wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.


If you come at it from the other end, pilot suicide can be avoided if you have ground control able to override pilot control (for emergency purpose only).

As for fatigue, with a ground control, you can rotate/replace co-pilot at greater intervals as there is no restriction of having the co-pilot on site all the time. In fact, you can in theory have more than one co-pilot in the room which in some case may benefit with more brain power available in the immediate area to trouble shoot issues.

You would probably have to implement this at the same time as autonomous flight as the worst case scenario of incapacitated pilot and failed communication with the co-pilot, you will need one last option to get the airplane safely back on the ground.

bt


Except that the pilot in the air would be able to pull the circuit breakers to the radio system that communicates with the ground control pilot.

The first evolution of this idea would be to have a few "master pilots" on the ground that could act as a 3rd pilot on the 797 during an emergency situation. They could assist with troubleshooting and control without the stress of their life being in danger (although I guess you could argue that that might help a pilot in the air).
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 5:12 pm

Boeing stocks would be of no value if it is not, and will not be, making planes that will sell. Stock buy backs and dividends take second place to that. The case can be made that the MAX debacle intensifies Boeing's need to proceed with the 797.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 5:13 pm

Elementalism wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
Single pilot ops will never happen in commercial flights. Too many fault modes to guarantee safe operation, not to mention the human factors element, fatigue, pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.

Single person ops may work on many other industries like railways or automotive. But those platforms are on a fixed program, fixed route - something that can be stopped with minimal disruption, you don't have that luxury when flying at X thousand feet above terra firma.


At one time they said we could never fly wide bodies with 2 pilots.


For normal operations, I don't think you really "need" 2 pilots now as there have been incapacitated pilots where the other pilot landed by themselves. They are mostly there as a backup now and obviously remote control of aircraft technology exists now, it just isn't installed on any commercial aircraft.

The main "issues" are passenger psychology of only having one pilot and the drastically increased chance for a terrorist group to hack the planes since there will be an over the air link to the control systems.

I've been on small planes in Alaska with only one pilot. The difference is that I was able to sit in the co-pilot seat. I always felt that I know enough about flying that if the pilot dropped dead, I'd be able to get on the ground (or in those cases on the water), gently enough to survive. After taking several helicopter tours, I've decided that I've had enough of flying in single pilot helicopters because if the pilot dropped dead, I'd have no chance of knowing what to do to have a survivable return to the ground.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 5:23 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Boeing stocks would be of no value if it is not, and will not be, making planes that will sell. Stock buy backs and dividends take second place to that. The case can be made that the MAX debacle intensifies Boeing's need to proceed with the 797.


I think the need to proceed was already there. Long term, they need to be able to make a 737 sized aircraft with composite wings and other advanced materials that can be manufactured at a cost of a 737 at most. They need a platform to develop the manufacturing technolgy and work out the kinks so that it can be scaled up to 60+ a month.

A 737 replacement will have to be at least 15% more efficient (probably 20%) than the 737MAX to make any sense but will need to be sold at similar prices. I don't think engines will be enough more efficient for let's say a 2030 EIS. The only way to get enough efficiency will be using composite wings and advanced fuselage materials and construction methods.

Technology developed for the 797 can be perfected for use on both the 737 replacement and whatever sub 150 seat design the JV with Embraer comes up with. Even if the 737 program barely breaks even, it will be worth launching because it will save time and cost for future programs.
 
AwysBSB
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 3:37 am

IWMBH wrote:
Interesting post on CNCB, the Boeing 797 could be equipped with an single pilot cockpit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/boeings ... board.html

They would be more prudent if tried single pilot cockpit on a newer generation of their C-17 before trying on their next airliner model.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 11:00 am

AwysBSB wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Interesting post on CNCB, the Boeing 797 could be equipped with an single pilot cockpit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/boeings ... board.html

They would be more prudent if tried single pilot cockpit on a newer generation of their C-17 before trying on their next airliner model.


The C-17 isn't in production anymore and is based on 80-ties technology. I think the next-generation model is an excellent opportunity to include a cockpit that can be handled by just one pilot. When - decades from now - only a single pilot is required, Boeing will have experience on this matter, and has a model already adjusted for it.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 11:37 am

planecane wrote:
Except that the pilot in the air would be able to pull the circuit breakers to the radio system that communicates with the ground control pilot.


The solution for this is easy. Have the remote pilot system issolated from on-board access.

Hacking the on-board system on a plane is already an issue now.

Yes people will be leery. But when they are ready for self driving car and autonomous flying taxi, they will not have any second thought of a remote pilot, let alone one single pilot.

bt
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DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 4:32 pm

How's the engine selection going? If they end up delaying a few years, I wonder if a geared engine architecture becomes more probable. The other big decisions are the fuselage cross section, and the size of the wing which will lock in the future of the aircraft for better or worse.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 4:59 pm

bikerthai wrote:
If you come at it from the other end, pilot suicide can be avoided if you have ground control able to override pilot control (for emergency purpose only).

It would create a new kind of crime on the other hand: murder or terror attack by ground control.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 6:29 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
It would create a new kind of crime on the other hand: murder or terror attack by ground control.


Sounds a lot like a Die Hard movie plot line. :box:

You can defeat this by having more than one center that can switch off if a security breach occurs. Or if the center is compromise, and a back-up can not be established, then the pilot would immediately attempt to land at the nearest airport . . . similar to other current system failure scenario.

Because of the communication link issue, I don't see this happening until they can get an self contained autopilot/auto land system approved for use.

bt
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 8:35 am

bikerthai wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
It would create a new kind of crime on the other hand: murder or terror attack by ground control.


Sounds a lot like a Die Hard movie plot line. :box:

You can defeat this by having more than one center that can switch off if a security breach occurs. Or if the center is compromise, and a back-up can not be established, then the pilot would immediately attempt to land at the nearest airport . . . similar to other current system failure scenario.

Because of the communication link issue, I don't see this happening until they can get an self contained autopilot/auto land system approved for use.

bt


Seems like it might just be easier to keep putting a second person in the pointy end.

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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 10:01 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
Analysts now believe that the EIS for the NMA might be as late as 2028 and Boeing will not announce the aircraft for several more years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/jefferi ... risis.html


A 2028 EIS for the NMA is way, way too late. Between now and 2028, Airbus will continue to refine both its A320neo and A321neo, extending its advantage over similar Boeing offerings, which in the case of the A321neo is, unfortunately, nothing. Boeing needs to move on this new design soon and get this plane into the hands of its customers by 2025 or 2026 at the latest. Holding to the belief that the MAX will suffice for another nine years is shortsighted and may lead to continuing market share loss in the narrowbody market. Of course, getting the MAX back on track is the first priority, but Boeing needs to be proactive and announce the 797 this year and begin the process of manufacturing. Dithering with the narrowbody decision, prior to deciding on the MAX, is exactly how Boeing ended up playing catch-up to Airbus. Further dithering with the 797 will only lead to more trouble.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 11:47 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Seems like it might just be easier to keep putting a second person in the pointy end.


Progress . . .

While not the same, it would seem that people would more likely accept a train with no driver before a wide body with one pilot.

Also, for comparison, will those new space tourism flights require two pilots? I mean if those flights only require one pilot, the presidence would be set for easier acceptance.

bt
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Armadillo1
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 11:51 am

never heard about space filghts with 17+ pax
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 pm

bikerthai wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Seems like it might just be easier to keep putting a second person in the pointy end.


While not the same, it would seem that people would more likely accept a train with no driver before a wide body with one pilot.

bt


Agreed, considering driverless trains already exist in some of the largest merto areas in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_train_operation
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 12:07 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
never heard about space filghts with 17+ pax


Space flights are inherently more dangerous. Isn't most of the flight autonomous anyway? Either way it's the perception that counts.

Seems to me, that this one pilot scenario is just the leg up Boeing needs to sell the 797 Freighter.

bt
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AwysBSB
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 12:08 am

IWMBH wrote:
AwysBSB wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Interesting post on CNCB, the Boeing 797 could be equipped with an single pilot cockpit: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/boeings ... board.html

They would be more prudent if tried single pilot cockpit on a newer generation of their C-17 before trying on their next airliner model.


The C-17 isn't in production anymore and is based on 80-ties technology. I think the next-generation model is an excellent opportunity to include a cockpit that can be handled by just one pilot. When - decades from now - only a single pilot is required, Boeing will have experience on this matter, and has a model already adjusted for it.

Anyway, it is nice that, for Boeing`s vision, a half-UAV project is as worthy as the 797 project.
I just wish the 797 family did not bring to the 7X7 series the same sad ending Max brought to the 737 family.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 12:22 am

Many citations are single pilot and we are getting to a point that insurance companies won't insure them to be flown single pilot, they crash far more often. Why do you think the airlines will magically be ok with this astronomically high accident rate?
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:35 am

Helicopters seem to crash more often than fixed wing. They only have one pilot. You would think some sort of automation software as back-up would improve the safety of helicopters.


Take the MAX accident as an example. Would a ground pilot have changed the outcome? Would a robust Autopilot have made a difference?

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Elementalism
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:40 pm

planecane wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
pugman211 wrote:
Single pilot ops will never happen in commercial flights. Too many fault modes to guarantee safe operation, not to mention the human factors element, fatigue, pilot suicide and the most important, isolation/high work load/stress environment.

Single person ops may work on many other industries like railways or automotive. But those platforms are on a fixed program, fixed route - something that can be stopped with minimal disruption, you don't have that luxury when flying at X thousand feet above terra firma.


At one time they said we could never fly wide bodies with 2 pilots.


For normal operations, I don't think you really "need" 2 pilots now as there have been incapacitated pilots where the other pilot landed by themselves. They are mostly there as a backup now and obviously remote control of aircraft technology exists now, it just isn't installed on any commercial aircraft.

The main "issues" are passenger psychology of only having one pilot and the drastically increased chance for a terrorist group to hack the planes since there will be an over the air link to the control systems.

I've been on small planes in Alaska with only one pilot. The difference is that I was able to sit in the co-pilot seat. I always felt that I know enough about flying that if the pilot dropped dead, I'd be able to get on the ground (or in those cases on the water), gently enough to survive. After taking several helicopter tours, I've decided that I've had enough of flying in single pilot helicopters because if the pilot dropped dead, I'd have no chance of knowing what to do to have a survivable return to the ground.


Agree 110% passenger psychology will be a big deal. I expect that attitudes will change when passengers cars drive themselves. When automation becomes an everyday thing. It will cease to be scary.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:28 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Many citations are single pilot and we are getting to a point that insurance companies won't insure them to be flown single pilot, they crash far more often. Why do you think the airlines will magically be ok with this astronomically high accident rate?


Comparing single pilot (VFR) ops to airline ops is not useful.

I'm convinced that single pilot airline flights will be in fact fully autonomous airliners. The pilot is just there as a back-up (or to satisfy anxious flying audience).

I'm also convinced by the time regulators allow autonomous flights, the technology will have moved on, in such that it would be an order of magnitude safer than humanly operated flights. I seriously doubt though if that technology will be ready in time for a 797.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:49 pm

Elementalism wrote:
planecane wrote:
Elementalism wrote:

At one time they said we could never fly wide bodies with 2 pilots.


For normal operations, I don't think you really "need" 2 pilots now as there have been incapacitated pilots where the other pilot landed by themselves. They are mostly there as a backup now and obviously remote control of aircraft technology exists now, it just isn't installed on any commercial aircraft.

The main "issues" are passenger psychology of only having one pilot and the drastically increased chance for a terrorist group to hack the planes since there will be an over the air link to the control systems.

I've been on small planes in Alaska with only one pilot. The difference is that I was able to sit in the co-pilot seat. I always felt that I know enough about flying that if the pilot dropped dead, I'd be able to get on the ground (or in those cases on the water), gently enough to survive. After taking several helicopter tours, I've decided that I've had enough of flying in single pilot helicopters because if the pilot dropped dead, I'd have no chance of knowing what to do to have a survivable return to the ground.


Agree 110% passenger psychology will be a big deal. I expect that attitudes will change when passengers cars drive themselves. When automation becomes an everyday thing. It will cease to be scary.


I don't know if fully autonomous vehicles will pave the way psychologically. People still know that car crashes are very survivable (if you look at fatal crashes out of total crashes). People still know that plane crashes are not (not talking runway overruns or gear collapses but an actual crash from altitude). This will affect attitutes espcially when it is looked at as greedy airlines trying to cut costs.

It will happen eventually but it will be a very slow process, especially with the pilots unions fighting it.
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:20 pm

on a more relevant note, boeing will internally decide whether to offer this year, with formal public launch next year.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ss-458547/
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 12:36 am

musman9853 wrote:
on a more relevant note, boeing will internally decide whether to offer this year, with formal public launch next year.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ss-458547/

How can it still be 2025 EIS? I'm a fan of the NMA, but the EIS date has slipped.

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2175301
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 1:31 am

lightsaber wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
on a more relevant note, boeing will internally decide whether to offer this year, with formal public launch next year.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ss-458547/

How can it still be 2025 EIS? I'm a fan of the NMA, but the EIS date has slipped.

Lightsaber


Nothing has really slipped. The engineering and planning is progressing on schedule. They announced last year that this would be a 2 step process if they decide to go ahead: 1) offer for sale sometime in 2019, and then 2) launch production in 2020 if enough preliminary orders materialized (or kill it if they do not). It is my understanding that they have used the process before with other new aircraft designs.

Boeing is very far along in design of the aircraft (way beyond the old normal). They believe that they can build, certify, and start production in about 5 years if the engineering is far enough along - and believe that they are far enough along for that. That has been their statements for years.

The only potential hick-up I see is that if the orders are so-so; and the airlines are pretty much asking for the same kind of change: Then some non-trivial redesign will need to be done. I doubt that will happen with all the consulting Boeing has done with various airlines around the world. But, still is possible.

The 738 Max issue has created a minor delay, according to my friend. It is my understanding that if not for the 738 Max issue that the presentation to the Board for Authorization to Offer would have occurred by now. The information I have is that they decided to sit on that for another month or two due until things clear up. In the meantime... more detailed engineering can be completed...

I expect the 738 Max issue to be resolved in another month or so. I understand that Boeing is complete on their MCAS redesign; and confident that it will pass muster. There may yet be some question on the exact paperwork & details of the regulatory approval process as the FAA is apparently including requested items from other countries (such as having an independent panel review certain things).

Expect the 797 to be offered for sale this year - and I still think possibly before mid summer.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 1:41 am

2175301 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
on a more relevant note, boeing will internally decide whether to offer this year, with formal public launch next year.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ss-458547/

How can it still be 2025 EIS? I'm a fan of the NMA, but the EIS date has slipped.

Lightsaber


Nothing has really slipped. The engineering and planning is progressing on schedule. They announced last year that this would be a 2 step process if they decide to go ahead: 1) offer for sale sometime in 2019, and then 2) launch production in 2020 if enough preliminary orders materialized (or kill it if they do not). It is my understanding that they have used the process before with other new aircraft designs.

Boeing is very far along in design of the aircraft (way beyond the old normal). They believe that they can build, certify, and start production in about 5 years if the engineering is far enough along - and believe that they are far enough along for that. That has been their statements for years.

The only potential hick-up I see is that if the orders are so-so; and the airlines are pretty much asking for the same kind of change: Then some non-trivial redesign will need to be done. I doubt that will happen with all the consulting Boeing has done with various airlines around the world. But, still is possible.

The 738 Max issue has created a minor delay, according to my friend. It is my understanding that if not for the 738 Max issue that the presentation to the Board for Authorization to Offer would have occurred by now. The information I have is that they decided to sit on that for another month or two due until things clear up. In the meantime... more detailed engineering can be completed...

I expect the 738 Max issue to be resolved in another month or so. I understand that Boeing is complete on their MCAS redesign; and confident that it will pass muster. There may yet be some question on the exact paperwork & details of the regulatory approval process as the FAA is apparently including requested items from other countries (such as having an independent panel review certain things).

Expect the 797 to be offered for sale this year - and I still think possibly before mid summer.

Have a great day,

Interesting perspective. The issue is the Paris airshow is the time for commitments and that time started May 20th.

The long lead item is engines. Soon castings must go forward.

Lightsaber
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2175301
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 1:58 am

lightsaber wrote:
Interesting perspective. The issue is the Paris airshow is the time for commitments and that time started May 20th.

The long lead item is engines. Soon castings must go forward.

Lightsaber


I expect with Authorization to Offer, that there will also be an Authorization to Sign Engine Contract. Said contract would include penalties if the project is canceled next year. That way engine production can start this year. Not next. I'm quite certain that they have already chosen the engine and negotiated the appropriate contract with perhaps a few details to be added at the last minute. I'm confident that this contract is essentially just waiting a few quick last minute updates (done in a day or so); and then for signature.

Have a great day
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 2:10 am

lightsaber wrote:
2175301 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How can it still be 2025 EIS? I'm a fan of the NMA, but the EIS date has slipped.

Lightsaber


Nothing has really slipped. The engineering and planning is progressing on schedule. They announced last year that this would be a 2 step process if they decide to go ahead: 1) offer for sale sometime in 2019, and then 2) launch production in 2020 if enough preliminary orders materialized (or kill it if they do not). It is my understanding that they have used the process before with other new aircraft designs.

Boeing is very far along in design of the aircraft (way beyond the old normal). They believe that they can build, certify, and start production in about 5 years if the engineering is far enough along - and believe that they are far enough along for that. That has been their statements for years.

The only potential hick-up I see is that if the orders are so-so; and the airlines are pretty much asking for the same kind of change: Then some non-trivial redesign will need to be done. I doubt that will happen with all the consulting Boeing has done with various airlines around the world. But, still is possible.

The 738 Max issue has created a minor delay, according to my friend. It is my understanding that if not for the 738 Max issue that the presentation to the Board for Authorization to Offer would have occurred by now. The information I have is that they decided to sit on that for another month or two due until things clear up. In the meantime... more detailed engineering can be completed...

I expect the 738 Max issue to be resolved in another month or so. I understand that Boeing is complete on their MCAS redesign; and confident that it will pass muster. There may yet be some question on the exact paperwork & details of the regulatory approval process as the FAA is apparently including requested items from other countries (such as having an independent panel review certain things).

Expect the 797 to be offered for sale this year - and I still think possibly before mid summer.

Have a great day,

Interesting perspective. The issue is the Paris airshow is the time for commitments and that time started May 20th.

The long lead item is engines. Soon castings must go forward.

Lightsaber


Lightsaber, do you think that ge and pratt can put together the 50k+ lbf engines in time for 2025? Would it be possible as an example scale up a leap core?
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 5:39 am

2175301 wrote:
I'm quite certain that they have already chosen the engine and negotiated the appropriate contract with perhaps a few details to be added at the last minute. I'm confident that this contract is essentially just waiting a few quick last minute updates (done in a day or so); and then for signature.


If this is the case, I find it amazing that nothing has leaked about whether the victor is CFM or Pratt.

The airframe engineering process you describe makes sense to me. But I remain skeptical that the engine selection is final or that the engine will be ready for a Christmas 2025 EIS.
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:03 pm

NMA program head is taking over MAX program. His replacement is Mike Sinnet. Leeham believes this is a good indicator NMA is happening.

https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/1 ... 0392082432
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:04 pm

A good indicator of the likelihood he said. That can be understood both ways.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:45 pm

Guess the next question will be , when the NMA is eventually launched,
how soon will the NSA ( 737 replacement) be launched?

Also, will the boys and girls in Brazil be handed that project ?
 
747megatop
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:04 pm

william wrote:
"The researchers said that given the NMA would start from a completely fresh design, airline executives see scope for just one pilot to be physically sat in the plane.

A second pilot would be ground based and be able to “monitor several aircraft” at the same time.

Reducing the number of pilots from an airline’s payroll could save a company millions of dollars in salaries and training costs.

The Jefferies note, released Sunday, claimed the technology to do this is still 10 years away but Boeing customers would find the capability “valuable.”"

Looks like we are entering the era of commercial aviation where one or more of the pilots are WFH a popular terminology in the software industry [Working From Home]. I really want this to be first tried and tested with CEOs and politicians as the guinea pigs versus trying it on us first. Try it first on corporate and personal jets those blokes use.

We are entering an era where we will have to make a phone call to reach the pilot if for any reason passengers find themselves in an emergency. The conversation goes like this...

1) Pilot dials the 1800 number..
2) An automated voice responds...Hello, you have reached XXX Airways intelligent pilot resource center. Please say or type your flight number and/or flight origin, destination.
3) Passenger punches in the details
4) Automated voice responds. Hi Mr John Doe, thanks for flying to London Heathrow with us today on XXX Airways with us today. Please listen carefully as our menu options have changed. If at any time you feel you are experiencing a life threatening emergency or feel like the aircraft is crashing please hang up and dial 911

1) Press or say 1 if you are experiencing moderate to severe turbulence,
2) Press or say 2 if you are experiencing mild to moderate turbulence.
3) Press or say 3 if you heard a bang and see sparks flying out of the engine.
4) Press or say 4 if you have smoke in the cabin
...
...
...
 
chiki
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:07 pm

Latest article from Leeham says the NMA 7 will be launched first based on rumours from PAS, Image

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747megatop
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Guess the next question will be , when the NMA is eventually launched,
how soon will the NSA ( 737 replacement) be launched?

Also, will the boys and girls in Brazil be handed that project ?

I think you are getting ahead of yourself here. Boeing is currently MAXed out. They need to first get it fixed, certified and up the air. Then rebuild the lost reputation globally. I will be surprised if they launch a new airplane any time soon. Right now the Renton factory and Boeing field are oversized parking lots, jets are popping up in the most unlikely of places..employee parking lots.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:19 pm

747megatop wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Guess the next question will be , when the NMA is eventually launched,
how soon will the NSA ( 737 replacement) be launched?

Also, will the boys and girls in Brazil be handed that project ?

I think you are getting ahead of yourself here. Boeing is currently MAXed out. They need to first get it fixed, certified and up the air. Then rebuild the lost reputation globally. I will be surprised if they launch a new airplane any time soon. Right now the Renton factory and Boeing field are oversized parking lots, jets are popping up in the most unlikely of places..employee parking lots.


I agree with you.. I'm thinking in terms of the NMA being launched in the next year of so
and any NSA launch after 2025 or so. I also agree with you it'll take some time to clear the backlog
of undelivered 737's

Boeing has to know once the NSA is launched,
any remaining 737 backlog will quickly convert to the NSA
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:48 pm

chiki wrote:
Latest article from Leeham says the NMA 7 will be launched first based on rumours from PAS.

Indeed. https://simpleflying.com/boeing-nma-comparison/ says:

This may help Boeing put some clearer product differentiation between the A321XLR and its 797. The 797-7 could fly 500 nautical miles further and carry some 50 more passengers than the A321XLR. These are not insignificant numbers.

Seems they want to hit that 767-300-not-ER spot pretty hard, then fill in with the 767-200-not-ER below it.
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