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Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:52 pm
by RL757PVD
PVD757 wrote:
heretothere wrote:
heretothere wrote:
When F9 extends their schedule, they exclusively sell discount den fares for a few weeks. If a route doesn’t have discount den fares it won’t show up. Why some routes don’t have any, I don’t know...


Bump...

Better to hold off on the analysis until they’re selling regular fares.


Hoping this is the case since, as of right now, PVD’s F9 service has been slashed to almost nothing.


Its my understanding that pretty much everything they ever tried was 80-85% or better except for the poorly timed AUS flight and the off-season MSY (of which one of the days was a Tuesday)

I think RDU and CLT was even 85% on the 230 seat A321... So if they walk away from that, it creates a nice opening for Moxy

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:36 pm
by jplatts
Buddys747 wrote:
I’m sure they could support it, but I thought the same about DEN-MDT, and yet it’s getting cut. I think a lot will depend on the day of the week and timing. Flights at another close by airport (thinking ORF or IAD) are available non-stop or in ORF with WN quite a few easy one-stops.
It just seems that they are getting all these new planes and just starting and stopping routes on a whim. I guess they are making money but eventually it will come back to haunt them as when they come back around for the third or fourth time there reputation is shot at that point... done rant.


There are a few airports in separate U.S. metro areas that are closer to each other than ORF and RIC that will still have nonstop service to DEN on F9 in Summer 2020, including the following:
ORD and MKE
AUS and SAT
CLT and GSP
MSN and MKE

Here are the driving distances between the above city pairs and ORF-RIC:
ORD-MKE - 73.2 mi
AUS-SAT - 76.9 mi
CLT-GSP - 84.2 mi
MSN-MKE - 83.0 mi
ORF-RIC - 85.5 mi

RIC is far enough from ORF to support nonstop service to DEN on F9 since F9 already serves DEN nonstop from destinations such as GSP and MSN that are closer to other airports served by F9 (by driving distance) than RIC is.

The PDEW of RIC-DEN is also almost as big as the PDEW of ORF-RIC as the PDEW of RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 was 126 passengers/day and the PDEW of ORF-DEN was 150 passengers/day. However, UA carried fewer O&D passengers on ORF-DEN than on RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 as the PDEW of RIC-DEN on UA in Q2 2019 was 79 passengers/day compared to a PDEW of 58 passengers/day on ORF-DEN on UA in Q2 2019.

RIC would also be a new market for F9 as opposed to a reentry into a market previously served by F9.

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:06 pm
by knope2001
heretothere wrote:
heretothere wrote:
When F9 extends their schedule, they exclusively sell discount den fares for a few weeks. If a route doesn’t have discount den fares it won’t show up. Why some routes don’t have any, I don’t know...


Bump...

Better to hold off on the analysis until they’re selling regular fares.


When they roll out a new schedule period like this the schedules themselves are accurate on flyfrontier.com, it's that they don't release seats for general sale at first so Discount Den members have first crack at limited inventory. When they release the period for broader sale the schedules will be the same.

They do occasionally add stuff back. Maybe a market was on the bubble but didn't make the cut, but then when they firm up what new routes they're going to roll out if there's lift left they may add something back. But based on my experience I'd guess maybe 95% of the time if an existing market isn't there with the new rollout it won't end up operating. There will certainly be a bunch of new markets announced soon and maybe a few things missing now will come back. But mostly what's missing for summer today on flyfrontier.com is gone.

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:18 pm
by WeatherPilot
Looks like ORD-SYR is gone next summer.

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:42 pm
by Buddys747
jplatts wrote:
Buddys747 wrote:
I’m sure they could support it, but I thought the same about DEN-MDT, and yet it’s getting cut. I think a lot will depend on the day of the week and timing. Flights at another close by airport (thinking ORF or IAD) are available non-stop or in ORF with WN quite a few easy one-stops.
It just seems that they are getting all these new planes and just starting and stopping routes on a whim. I guess they are making money but eventually it will come back to haunt them as when they come back around for the third or fourth time there reputation is shot at that point... done rant.



There are a few airports in separate U.S. metro areas that are closer to each other than ORF and RIC that will still have nonstop service to DEN on F9 in Summer 2020, including the following:
ORD and MKE
AUS and SAT
CLT and GSP
MSN and MKE

Here are the driving distances between the above city pairs and ORF-RIC:
ORD-MKE - 73.2 mi
AUS-SAT - 76.9 mi
CLT-GSP - 84.2 mi
MSN-MKE - 83.0 mi
ORF-RIC - 85.5 mi

RIC is far enough from ORF to support nonstop service to DEN on F9 since F9 already serves DEN nonstop from destinations such as GSP and MSN that are closer to other airports served by F9 (by driving distance) than RIC is.

The PDEW of RIC-DEN is also almost as big as the PDEW of ORF-RIC as the PDEW of RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 was 126 passengers/day and the PDEW of ORF-DEN was 150 passengers/day. However, UA carried fewer O&D passengers on ORF-DEN than on RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 as the PDEW of RIC-DEN on UA in Q2 2019 was 79 passengers/day compared to a PDEW of 58 passengers/day on ORF-DEN on UA in Q2 2019.

RIC would also be a new market for F9 as opposed to a reentry into a market previously served by F9.

Thanks for the informative post. I don’t doubt RIC could support the service, I was just saying if it is a lousy schedule and timing, there’s a chance RIC customers would stick with WN 1 Stops or United. While there are people that will take the lowest fare no matter what, when traveling as a family timing does make a difference.
RIC is probably more well positioned than MDT is, with BWI having so many options on WN, UA, NK and just this past summer F9 was doing 4x weekly.
I would have thought there would be a better chance to steal customers here in MDT on F9 rather then going head to head with multiple daily non stops on other airlines at BWI. There is a ton of bleed from here.
Even MDT-MCO going to just 2 weekly and nothing else just doesn’t make sense to me. As MCO tends to be the preferred Orlando airport, how does G4 make MDT-SFB work daily most of the year?
It’s one thing to be a cheerleader for your home airport with any service you get, there are some I scratch my head about that aren’t worth starting, but I still firmly believe with proper timing and frequency a route like MDT-DEN should be able to sustain itself.

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:34 pm
by Nicknuzzii
Frontier14 wrote:
flybry wrote:
When will EWR-DEN start?


Am hearing there may be an announcement(s) come next week that will answer your question.

Frontier 14


Any chance of it today?

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:24 pm
by WaywardMemphian
Yeah, now that they are at XNA, I wonder if we see something like what they teies at BKG with ORD and DFW at XNA instead plus adding MCO

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Ord-dFW%0D ... =wls&DU=mi

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:06 am
by Midwestindy
Big growth coming in 2020

"The Denver-based ultra-low-cost carrier will grow capacity by an impressive 23-25% year-over-year in 2020 as it takes delivery of around 15 new A320neo family jets"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/frontier- ... ive-years/

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:05 pm
by SQ22
Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438071

Thread will be locked.