gunnerman wrote:

So, we'll have three flights from JFK to GEO:

BW527 at 0125
AA2896 at 1800
B61965 at 2355

Let the battle begin. As a small Caribbean carrier BW will find it hard going against the big boys.

They better find a way to deal with it though because they can’t afford to shed a route like GEO-JFK. They already have to suffer the heavy competition on their KIN-USA routes that they likely can’t drop due to commitments made to the J’can government and KIN market. POS-NYC is now three carriers and six flights daily. AA also expands MIA-POS to three times daily during peaks. They are facing strong competition all around.

gunnerman wrote:

So, we'll have three flights from JFK to GEO:

BW527 at 0125
AA2896 at 1800
B61965 at 2355

Let the battle begin. As a small Caribbean carrier BW will find it hard going against the big boys.

They have beaten off the big boys into POS so its not inevitable that they will succumb. In fact I suspect that AA will be the casualty on this route as if B6 introduces a low fare strategy (fares below $750) AA will not like that. Also that 1800 departure will not be popular with many people given its near midnight arrival in GEO.

Brickell305 wrote:

] that they likely can’t drop due to commitments made to the J’can government and KIN market. POS-NYC is now three carriers and six flights daily. AA also expands MIA-POS to three times daily during peaks. They are facing strong competition all around.

The commitments were made when they were using the "Air Jamaica" brand. BW is already in breach as they were supposed to run 6 routes out of North America. If reduced yields on the JFK GEO seriously hurt BW a decision will have to be made and I bet that there has been conversation about the bleed on those Jamaican routes.

AAs 3x to POS is winter only, meaning Xmas and Carnival. In fact one can say that they have reduced their service as summer was now just 2x with a 738 rather than the A321 that they used to use.

I think that the grounding of the 737 MAX planes was a major reason behind AA reducing POS to 2 daily from 3 this summer. Remember that POS was a headline MAX route for the airline and the grounding left them scrambling to reshuffle craft to routes across the network. The third frequency thus became a victim of the cuts.

Somehow I would not write BW off in GEO yet, there are likely to be many Caribbean Miles members who would prefer to maintain their loyalty and earn rewards.

Trintocan.

Adverts for B6 in the local media says $550 rtn and $320 o/w. Last price on BW was $850 rtn. AA was $750 geo-ewr rtn via Mia.

trintocan wrote:

I think that the grounding of the 737 MAX planes was a major reason behind AA reducing POS to 2 daily from 3 this summer. Remember that POS was a headline MAX route for the airline and the grounding left them scrambling to reshuffle craft to routes across the network. The third frequency thus became a victim of the cuts.

Somehow I would not write BW off in GEO yet, there are likely to be many Caribbean Miles members who would prefer to maintain their loyalty and earn rewards.

Trintocan.

They held their own against DL when they did geo-jfk and the other charters out at that time, so yeah, don’t write them off.

Intercaribbean announced EIS-STX and EIS-STT (again). If they actually start it this time, that might be the end of LIAT in the USVI.

303dk wrote:

Intercaribbean announced EIS-STX and EIS-STT (again). If they actually start it this time, that might be the end of LIAT in the USVI.

Don't write LI off the USVI just yet. LI's strong point is that it has the vast network that InterCaribbean does not have. There's even rumours that LI may restart STX.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

303dk wrote:

Intercaribbean announced EIS-STX and EIS-STT (again). If they actually start it this time, that might be the end of LIAT in the USVI.

Don't write LI off the USVI just yet. LI's strong point is that it has the vast network that InterCaribbean does not have. There's even rumours that LI may restart STX.

Not sure why LI should be written off. Based on Trip Advisor reviews Inter Carib is even worse than LI which offers a nonstop flight to ANU from STT. Not sure about that STX thing though. I think more likely more flights to STT.

The gap that I see in the STT Eastern Caribbean route is to SKB. SKN has the largest OECS population in the USVI and yet only Air Sunshine serves that route. And that airline isn't for everybody. So end up using LI which is hard on the southbound with a lengthy wait in ANU.

caribny wrote:

LimaFoxTango wrote:

303dk wrote:

Intercaribbean announced EIS-STX and EIS-STT (again). If they actually start it this time, that might be the end of LIAT in the USVI.

Don't write LI off the USVI just yet. LI's strong point is that it has the vast network that InterCaribbean does not have. There's even rumours that LI may restart STX.

Not sure why LI should be written off. Based on Trip Advisor reviews Inter Carib is even worse than LI which offers a nonstop flight to ANU from STT. Not sure about that STX thing though. I think more likely more flights to STT.

The gap that I see in the STT Eastern Caribbean route is to SKB. SKN has the largest OECS population in the USVI and yet only Air Sunshine serves that route. And that airline isn't for everybody. So end up using LI which is hard on the southbound with a lengthy wait in ANU.

The reality is that most of the VFR traffic from the USVI is only going to the DR and Dominica. For nearly anyone else, especially biz travelers, AA via MIA will cheaper and less hassle. The generation from most other OECS has been in the USVI for 25+ years. There’s not much connection left to drive air traffic.

303dk wrote:

caribny wrote:

The reality is that most of the VFR traffic from the USVI is only going to the DR and Dominica. For nearly anyone else, especially biz travelers, AA via MIA will cheaper and less hassle. The generation from most other OECS has been in the USVI for 25+ years. There’s not much connection left to drive air traffic.

Is there something special about Dominicans why only they of the OECS travel back home? There are more SKN in the USVI then Dominicans. Source the 2010 census. I am not talking about the DR as it is to be understand that this is a very recent group.

From reports LIs STT route is doing well enough and if it wasn't LI would have scrapped it by now. LI doesnt properly serve Dominicans as they dont connect from DOM to STT, so it isnt Dominicans supporting that route. So the route is supported by people travelling to ANU, SLU, and SKB. I doubt that BGI and POS travel exists.

You make me laugh when you claim that its easier to get to SKB via MIA. I know that you have an anti LI bias but AA (at least its service to the Caribbean out of MIA) isnt that great either. Doesnt work for St Lucians either. So why travel all the way up and back down, especially when AAs fares into SKB can be quite fierce.

Sky High Aviation Services is starting Santo Domingo-Medellin finally, first flight Nov 8, 2 weekly on ERJ145.

It appears Liat is in dire straits again with the negotiations between BGI and ANU not moving thusfar.

https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/09/19/bad-to-worse/

caribny wrote:

303dk wrote:

caribny wrote:

You make me laugh when you claim that its easier to get to SKB via MIA. I know that you have an anti LI bias but AA (at least its service to the Caribbean out of MIA) isnt that great either. Doesnt work for St Lucians either. So why travel all the way up and back down, especially when AAs fares into SKB can be quite fierce.

It's not that far-fetched. There are many routes, especially East-West, where AA via Miami is the easiest and often cheapest option. GCM-KIN, KIN-PLS, GCM/KIN/MBJ/PAP-ANU/BGI/POS are all examples of pairings easiest via Miami even when non-stops exist.

Caymanair wrote:

caribny wrote:

303dk wrote:

It's not that far-fetched. There are many routes, especially East-West, where AA via Miami is the easiest and often cheapest option. GCM-KIN, KIN-PLS, GCM/KIN/MBJ/PAP-ANU/BGI/POS are all examples of pairings easiest via Miami even when non-stops exist.

Flying to KIN via MIA from POS/BGI might make sense, providing of course that you have a US visa. There are people who do this, especially before BW added their nonstop KIN BGI flight.

Flying WITHIN the Eastern Caribbean via MIA doesnt. STT to POS costs the same with LI and AA and LI does it 3 hours faster. Normal people like to get on and off a plane ASAP. And that is the one trip where the MIA back track might have been worth it given how far south POS is.

If folks want to run up their AA FF miles that is OK. Not sure why one would prefer travelling to KIN from GCM via MIA for any other reason. Its neither cheaper nor easier. I am not of the impression that walking thru MIA is easier than connecting via ANU.

Until the US no longer requires international to international connections to have a US visa why anyone would want to do that is a mystery. That is unless the AA FF issue is their goal. I will suggest that PTY offers better options to places where CM flies than does MIA. A big chunk of the PAP/SDQ/SJU and maybe even some KIN/POS use that option. No visa required for intransit passengers.

baje427 wrote:

It appears Liat is in dire straits again with the negotiations between BGI and ANU not moving thusfar.

https://barbadostoday.bb/2019/09/19/bad-to-worse/

Not sure that this is a bad for LI given that ANU had far fetched of sending LI to compete against AA with flights to SoFL. These gov'ts need to sharply reduce their taxes for intra Eastern Caribbean travel. The high fares is a main reason why travel within the region is much lower than it used to be.

Lots of the impulse travel that one used to see between neighboring islands ceases to make sense when flights are US$400. Fares of US$700 plus for travel between the northern and southern parts of LI's network is ridiculous. And this isnt LI's fault as they offer some very low fares if one books well in advance, but then taxes more than double these low fares.

Yes LI no doubt has its internal problems of inefficiency and incompetent management but at least if travel increases, so would loads and losses would drop.

caribny wrote:

Caymanair wrote:

caribny wrote:

It's not that far-fetched. There are many routes, especially East-West, where AA via Miami is the easiest and often cheapest option. GCM-KIN, KIN-PLS, GCM/KIN/MBJ/PAP-ANU/BGI/POS are all examples of pairings easiest via Miami even when non-stops exist.

Flying to KIN via MIA from POS/BGI might make sense, providing of course that you have a US visa. There are people who do this, especially before BW added their nonstop KIN BGI flight.

Flying WITHIN the Eastern Caribbean via MIA doesnt. STT to POS costs the same with LI and AA and LI does it 3 hours faster. Normal people like to get on and off a plane ASAP. And that is the one trip where the MIA back track might have been worth it given how far south POS is.

If folks want to run up their AA FF miles that is OK. Not sure why one would prefer travelling to KIN from GCM via MIA for any other reason. Its neither cheaper nor easier. I am not of the impression that walking thru MIA is easier than connecting via ANU.

Until the US no longer requires international to international connections to have a US visa why anyone would want to do that is a mystery. That is unless the AA FF issue is their goal. I will suggest that PTY offers better options to places where CM flies than does MIA. A big chunk of the PAP/SDQ/SJU and maybe even some KIN/POS use that option. No visa required for intransit passengers.

I don’t think the visa is as much of an issue as is having to clear customs/immigration in Miami. Many Caribbean based travelers have US multi year, multiple use visas anyway as they also travel to the US itself. Even people who don’t travel to the US frequently tend to keep it up to date just in case. The biggest headache has always been the reconnection through Miami but with the updated kiosks even that has been improved somewhat. I agree with you though that people who don’t already have visas are highly unlikely to get one just to make those trips. However for those going Eastern Caribbean to Western Caribbean and vice versa, I’m not sure the subset of people without US visas is that high.

In spite of LIAT's problems there is a plan to increase service to Dominica from 25 to 28 flights a week this winter.
https://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/liat-to-increase-flights-into-dominica/

gunnerman wrote:

In spite of LIAT's problems there is a plan to increase service to Dominica from 25 to 28 flights a week this winter.
https://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/liat-to-increase-flights-into-dominica/

Is that just LI 364 now stopping in DOM every day instead of alternating with PTP? Basically, is it now just BGI-DOM-PTP-ANU on those three days?

Brickell305 wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

In spite of LIAT's problems there is a plan to increase service to Dominica from 25 to 28 flights a week this winter.
https://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/liat-to-increase-flights-into-dominica/

Is that just LI 364 now stopping in DOM every day instead of alternating with PTP? Basically, is it now just BGI-DOM-PTP-ANU on those three days?

No, a new flight has been added in the afternoon.

With the imminent closure of TCX I wonder what steps destinations such as BGI and MBJ will take to cushion the lost capacity.

The situation now is very different to what it used to be. If Thomas Cook collapses, only Tui Airways will be left of the many holiday airlines we used to have in the days when the big four operators (TC, Thomson, First Choice and Airtours) had their own airlines plus others like Caledonian, Monarch and XL Airways. Of the scheduled carriers Air Jamaica, BWIA and British Midland are gone, so no more flights to Jamaica and the eastern Caribbean. There's a limit to how much capacity BA and VS will put into this region, and we've already seen that VS will axe St Lucia. Condor has Caribbean flights from FRA but who knows what will happen enxt year.

In short, it's hard to see how lost capacity from Europe can be replaced.

Brickell305 wrote:

I don’t think the visa is as much of an issue as is having to clear customs/immigration in Miami. Many Caribbean based travelers have US multi year, multiple use visas anyway as they also travel to the US itself. Even people who don’t travel to the US frequently tend to keep it up to date just in case. The biggest headache has always been the reconnection through Miami but with the updated kiosks even that has been improved somewhat. I agree with you though that people who don’t already have visas are highly unlikely to get one just to make those trips. However for those going Eastern Caribbean to Western Caribbean and vice versa, I’m not sure the subset of people without US visas is that high.

I am not sure that one can say that Jca E/C bound passengers are mainly the upper middle class types (business people or gov't officials) with multi entry visas. Given the difficulties that many J'cans have in their travels to the E/C this is a more diverse traveler than maybe it was 30 years ago. Jamaican populations do now exist in many of these islands, triggering levels of VFR travel. Shanique Myrie might be more of a norm than one would think.

Using the kiosks doesnt automatically mean that one doesnt have to join the line. Then especially in the summer many of the northbound AA flights are late, meaning that a 2 hour gap, which should be enough, suddenly becomes a race. Of course the infamous "waiting for an open gate". Aside from those who want to build their AA FF miles I just dont see how it is easier to fly KIN POS via MIA. Its approx. the same fare and 3 hours more (if all goes well).

For people traveling to MBJ, GCM and NAS I can see the advantage. For POS bound out of NAS its pre clearance so the hordes at MIA (CBP and TSA) you dont have to deal with. Even though BWs one stop is still more convenient, though more expensive. NAS to BGI will be easier on AA for those with multi entry visas.

Sky High new ERJ and new paint scheme landing at CUR: Larry Every photo

Government of Guyana signed an air services agreement with Qatar Airways. The government is touting it as an indication that Qatar will begin flying to Guyana.

https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/n ... ar-airways

This is probably related to Qatar Petroleum's recent acquisition of stakes in Total's two oil and gas blocks offshore Guyana.

So just a few questions.. Maybe someone has the inside or knowledge..

So currently at SXM/TNCM, more and more flights are being reduced and the prices of tickets have increased significantly. Mainly with American.. But why cut/decrease a flight significantly? Why not fly the A319 over the B738/B752/B763?!

I know that TUI originally planned to come back to SXM sometime this year.. But we still haven’t heard much from them. Same with some other airlines that have been rumored to make an announcement (Sunwing Groups mass expansion to SXM - with their new exclusive resort, Spirit expansion, Russian Carrier, Norwegian, Virgin Atlantic, etc). Anyone have any information on what’s happening and what airlines might be waiting for to jump into the market again?

Balloonchaser wrote:

So just a few questions.. Maybe someone has the inside or knowledge..

So currently at SXM/TNCM, more and more flights are being reduced and the prices of tickets have increased significantly. Mainly with American.. But why cut/decrease a flight significantly? Why not fly the A319 over the B738/B752/B763?!

?

Are these reductions programmed for Dec/March? The current period is the soft season so its no shock that flights are pulled down, especially given the continued MAX fiasco. Reduced flights for the busy winter season would be more significant, given that SXM has largely recovered.

caribny wrote:

Balloonchaser wrote:

So just a few questions.. Maybe someone has the inside or knowledge..

So currently at SXM/TNCM, more and more flights are being reduced and the prices of tickets have increased significantly. Mainly with American.. But why cut/decrease a flight significantly? Why not fly the A319 over the B738/B752/B763?!

?

Are these reductions programmed for Dec/March? The current period is the soft season so its no shock that flights are pulled down, especially given the continued MAX fiasco. Reduced flights for the busy winter season would be more significant, given that SXM has largely recovered.

They are programmed from now until like next April. December-February is actually a very busy time down in SXM. It could be the MAX issue with American and United.. But still doesn’t explain why new carriers/existing carriers aren’t harping at the opportunity.

Flew AA1512/1513 GEO-MIA within the past 2 weeks. Outgoing and incoming were full to capacity. AA must be pleased with this flight.

The Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne has announced that his country has secured a $40m loan from Venezuela-based ALBA Bank to pump into LIAT, and is no longer interested in buying shares in the company from Barbados.

gunnerman wrote:

The Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne has announced that his country has secured a $40m loan from Venezuela-based ALBA Bank to pump into LIAT, and is no longer interested in buying shares in the company from Barbados.

So ANU will be leveraged as is BGI.

Let's just say that the dividends from LIAT's profits to enable repayment of the loan must be regarded as a long-term project.

Lots of helos in OGL these days. Bristow has about 5-6 AgustaWestland AW139’s and at least 1 Sikorsky S-92. Now I saw a Sikorsky S-76D flown in from POS reg # 9Y-MAD. Oil and gas support.

https://www.verticalmag.com/press-relea ... perations/

The fare war has started on NYC - GEO. For a week in April I am seeing B6 at $482, AA at $512 and BW at $1000++

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Lots of helos in OGL these days. Bristow has about 5-6 AgustaWestland AW139’s and at least 1 Sikorsky S-92. Now I saw a Sikorsky S-76D flown in from POS reg # 9Y-MAD. Oil and gas support.

https://www.verticalmag.com/press-relea ... perations/

Do you live in Guyana? I want to jump on the Jetblue fares to do a visit. But I am not seeing alot of information about how to get to the interior. Do you have any recommendations?

maverick4002 wrote:

The fare war has started on NYC - GEO. For a week in April I am seeing B6 at $482, AA at $512 and BW at $1000++

So BW will be locked out of the market. Guyanese aren't so loyal.

Lufthansa/Eurowings started operating 3x weekly service FRA/BGI/FRA with A332's! These flights will operate for the winter season 2019/20. This is in addition to Condor who will also operate 2/3x weekly flights.

caribny wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

The fare war has started on NYC - GEO. For a week in April I am seeing B6 at $482, AA at $512 and BW at $1000++

So BW will be locked out of the market. Guyanese aren't so loyal.

It could be they simply have not adjusted their fares as yet. Both AA and B6 operate into POS I am sure BW knows how to compete.

baje427 wrote:

caribny wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

The fare war has started on NYC - GEO. For a week in April I am seeing B6 at $482, AA at $512 and BW at $1000++

So BW will be locked out of the market. Guyanese aren't so loyal.

It could be they simply have not adjusted their fares as yet. Both AA and B6 operate into POS I am sure BW knows how to compete.

BW tends to be a bit arrogant on its GEO routes. The market has been telling them that their fares are too high. BW ignored them. The market has been threatening to rush to AA and/or B6 to teach BW a lesson. BW ignores them.

The folks at Piarco think that Guyanese are more loyal customers than even Trinidadians because they would otherwise have been mounting an aggressive campaign to protect their market. Bad enough that the MAX issue means that their ageing 738's will be put against B6s new 321s with superior IFE.

baje427 wrote:

caribny wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

The fare war has started on NYC - GEO. For a week in April I am seeing B6 at $482, AA at $512 and BW at $1000++

So BW will be locked out of the market. Guyanese aren't so loyal.

It could be they simply have not adjusted their fares as yet. Both AA and B6 operate into POS I am sure BW knows how to compete.

I have no doubt that BW know how to compete in POS. I’m a bit more skeptical about that ability at GEO.

Let’s just get the fact that they’re the hometown airline at POS out of the way. There would be some affinity for BW as a Caribbean carrier in GEO and among the VFR community in NYC but not as much as there is to/from Trinidad.

Out of POS, there’s also more business travel to/from NYC (even though that’s not their bread and butter on that route). BW benefits, especially on the POS end, from being the only year round business class carrier on the route. There’d be less business travel period to GEO and AA will also get it’s fair share of that market.

Also, NYC-GEO traffic leans more heavily to the NYC end than does NYC-POS traffic as POS generally has a stronger outbound market than GEO does. That makes it easier for BW to compete on that route that it would to GEO where NYC based passengers will likely prefer their locally based airlines.

caribny wrote:

baje427 wrote:

caribny wrote:

So BW will be locked out of the market. Guyanese aren't so loyal.

It could be they simply have not adjusted their fares as yet. Both AA and B6 operate into POS I am sure BW knows how to compete.

BW tends to be a bit arrogant on its GEO routes. The market has been telling them that their fares are too high. BW ignored them. The market has been threatening to rush to AA and/or B6 to teach BW a lesson. BW ignores them.

The folks at Piarco think that Guyanese are more loyal customers than even Trinidadians because they would otherwise have been mounting an aggressive campaign to protect their market. Bad enough that the MAX issue means that their ageing 738's will be put against B6s new 321s with superior IFE.

Honestly I dont think IFE is a big factor it's nice but the Caribbean market is influenced more by price. So yes if BW continues with their higher fares they will lose out however, should they compete on price many wont be checking for who has better IFE.

baje427 wrote:

Honestly I dont think IFE is a big factor it's nice but the Caribbean market is influenced more by price. So yes if BW continues with their higher fares they will lose out however, should they compete on price many wont be checking for who has better IFE.

While price is the main factor B6 has an advantage over BW and AA with its better IFE offerings. That younger crowd are addicted to this. That is why BW must compete on price and keep its more favorable baggage policies. In fact there is a segment of Guyanese who actively detest BW (high fares and service problems at POS) and have been longing for a major carrier, so BW will be stupid to give these people an excuse to bolt.

Will Eastern Airlines haunt Guyana again? The former Dynamic International Airways was rebranded as Eastern Airlines in October 2018 and has now had its application to operate scheduled nonstops between JFK and GEO approved by the Guyana government six months after its application was rejected. Flights are expected to commence on 8 December, and all eyes will no doubt be on reliability and safety during this critical period which covers Chrstmas and the new year.
https://www.stabroeknews.com/2019/11/09/news/guyana/eastern-airlines-gets-green-light-for-guyana-to-ny-route/

Not sure how JFK GEO can be called underserved when there will be 3 and now a 4th airline on the route. Dont know what this year's numbers look like but 2018 shows this route to be quite mature, even beginning to show a small decline. Many Caribbean people are leaving the NY area, and fewer are moving in so this will impact the VFR markets.

The problem for Eastern Airlines is that they didn't have six months to establish a reputation for solid reliability on the route. As AA and JetBlue will commence service on 18 December 2019 and 2 April 2020 respectively I can only see big trouble for Eastern.

maverick4002 wrote:

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Lots of helos in OGL these days. Bristow has about 5-6 AgustaWestland AW139’s and at least 1 Sikorsky S-92. Now I saw a Sikorsky S-76D flown in from POS reg # 9Y-MAD. Oil and gas support.

https://www.verticalmag.com/press-relea ... perations/

Do you live in Guyana? I want to jump on the Jetblue fares to do a visit. But I am not seeing alot of information about how to get to the interior. Do you have any recommendations?

Yes I do live here. A few reputable tour operators here are:

http://www.evergreenadventuresgy.com/
http://roraimaairways.com/
https://m.facebook.com/wonderlandtoursguyana/

Check those out if you need further info let me know.

maverick4002 wrote:

GUYAIR707 wrote:

Lots of helos in OGL these days. Bristow has about 5-6 AgustaWestland AW139’s and at least 1 Sikorsky S-92. Now I saw a Sikorsky S-76D flown in from POS reg # 9Y-MAD. Oil and gas support.

https://www.verticalmag.com/press-relea ... perations/

Do you live in Guyana? I want to jump on the Jetblue fares to do a visit. But I am not seeing alot of information about how to get to the interior. Do you have any recommendations?

If you haven’t already done it try to do the Iwokrama canopy walk, and visit Surama Eco Lodge. Surama is run by the Amerindians so the profit does not go to some corporation. It gets rave reviews. Another tour operator is Wilderness Explorers. That should do it.

Sky High Dominicana flew to Medellin today, 2 weekly Mondays and Fridays ERJ145 service.

Next destinations Barranquilla, St Thomas, Kingston from SDQ.

Dominica, San Juan, St Lucia, Aguadilla, down to Summer Seasonal service

danipawa wrote:

Sky High Dominicana flew to Medellin today, 2 weekly Mondays and Fridays ERJ145 service.

Next destinations Barranquilla, St Thomas, Kingston from SDQ.

Dominica, San Juan, St Lucia, Aguadilla, down to Summer Seasonal service

I guess SJU is a competitive route so someone had to stand down. STT should be a success as Dominicans are probably the largest source of VFR among the immigrant derived populations.