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LimaFoxTango
Posts: 904
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:41 pm

Brickell305 wrote:

My biggest takeaway from this is that LI only has six profitable routes and of those six, only one doesn't go through BGI. My guesses for the profitable routes out of BGI are BGI-OGL/SLU/SVD/ANU/GND. I wonder what the profitable non-BGI route is.


Lets get something straight here. Those "profitable routes out of BGI" are only so because LI chose to route those flights through BGI. Its not like all those pax are O/D pax ex BGI. BGI could easily be replaced with say SVD and the result would be the same. Yes, BGI-POS-BGI is quite an under performer.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:47 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

My biggest takeaway from this is that LI only has six profitable routes and of those six, only one doesn't go through BGI. My guesses for the profitable routes out of BGI are BGI-OGL/SLU/SVD/ANU/GND. I wonder what the profitable non-BGI route is.


Lets get something straight here. Those "profitable routes out of BGI" are only so because LI chose to route those flights through BGI. Its not like all those pax are O/D pax ex BGI. BGI could easily be replaced with say SVD and the result would be the same. Yes, BGI-POS-BGI is quite an under performer.


Thanks, that was actually my next question. Whether it was just due to BGI being the chosen hub.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:48 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

My biggest takeaway from this is that LI only has six profitable routes and of those six, only one doesn't go through BGI. My guesses for the profitable routes out of BGI are BGI-OGL/SLU/SVD/ANU/GND. I wonder what the profitable non-BGI route is.


Lets get something straight here. Those "profitable routes out of BGI" are only so because LI chose to route those flights through BGI. Its not like all those pax are O/D pax ex BGI. BGI could easily be replaced with say SVD and the result would be the same. Yes, BGI-POS-BGI is quite an under performer.

Are you seriously saying that SVD O&D is as good as BGI O&D? The next time I'm at BGI waiting for a flight to OGL I'll wonder why there's a bunch of other people waiting to board the same flight.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:25 pm

windian425 wrote:
That would be BGI-POS



I doubt that BGI POS is profitable for LI due to BWs domination. LI has started, stopped, and started that route again. I am willing to bet that many people on that flight are connecting thru BGI to other points on LI's network.
Last edited by caribny on Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:28 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:

My biggest takeaway from this is that LI only has six profitable routes and of those six, only one doesn't go through BGI. My guesses for the profitable routes out of BGI are BGI-OGL/SLU/SVD/ANU/GND. I wonder what the profitable non-BGI route is.


Lets get something straight here. Those "profitable routes out of BGI" are only so because LI chose to route those flights through BGI. Its not like all those pax are O/D pax ex BGI. BGI could easily be replaced with say SVD and the result would be the same. Yes, BGI-POS-BGI is quite an under performer.


Thanks, that was actually my next question. Whether it was just due to BGI being the chosen hub.



Most of LI's traffic is now in the southern Caribbean with POS and BGI being the two most important destinations/point of origin. LI faces stiff competition from BW on its POS routes. BGI becomes the obvious hub choice because it has the widest range of profitable routes for LI to build on. So someone traveling from GND to ANU (and points further north) can more efficiently be served via BGI than any other hub.

The most efficient way for LI to service OGL is via BGI. Not only is there ample O&D between those points, but a fair number of passengers arrive from SLU/GND/ANU so BGI becomes the best gathering point. More passengers than one would think are arriving from SKB/EIS/SXM via ANU which is no doubt a major reason why the ANU BGI route is profitable, as its a hub to hub route.

I have a strong feeling however that LI doesn't understand its own travel flows which is why so many of its routes aren't profitable. Is SLU SVD really a money loser when its is really part of a BGI SVD SLU BGI and v.v. enabling LI to better serve SLU and SVD to/from BGI?
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:04 pm

Take LI371 (SLU-SVD-BGI). There are three markets (excluding transfers):
SLU-SVD
SLU-BGI
SVD-BGI

If SLU-SVD is loss-making then the other two routes have to make up for the losses. But what if SLU-BGI makes even more money as there are no costs or losses by dropping SLU-SVD and SVD-BGI? This is why each sector should make a contribution to profitability or the Caribbean governments must provide subsidies for political or social reasons - or for LIAT to be run efficiently until it deserves support as Allen Chastanet believes.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:29 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Take LI371 (SLU-SVD-BGI). There are three markets (excluding transfers):
SLU-SVD
SLU-BGI
SVD-BGI

If SLU-SVD is loss-making then the other two routes have to make up for the losses. But what if SLU-BGI makes even more money as there are no costs or losses by dropping SLU-SVD and SVD-BGI? This is why each sector should make a contribution to profitability or the Caribbean governments must provide subsidies for political or social reasons - or for LIAT to be run efficiently until it deserves support as Allen Chastanet believes.


LI isnt always able to fill a plane BGI SLU or BGI SVD. BY running a BGI SVD SLU BGI flight it allows them to combine loads. This allows more frequent service. If the bonus is SLU SVD, which isnt profitable on its own so be it, but the BGI originating/destined service can cover that.

While Allan Chastanet maybe right about LIAT he also has a personal gripe against it due to the failure of Air Jamaica Express. Butch Stewart fired him when that carrier failed. It was based in SLU. I think his current rant is because the ECAA refuses to certify some fly by night that someone wants to base in SLU.
 
gunnerman
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Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:53 pm

ECX failed a long time ago in April 2001 after operating for only about 12 months. It wasn't just LIAT in the market, BWee Express and Caribbean Star were there as well. And when you have excess capacity something has to give.

I'm more inclined to think that St Lucia's less than stellar economic performance has influenced Chastanet's lack of willingness to invest in LIAT.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:12 pm

gunnerman wrote:
ECX failed a long time ago in April 2001 after operating for only about 12 months. It wasn't just LIAT in the market, BWee Express and Caribbean Star were there as well. And when you have excess capacity something has to give.

I'm more inclined to think that St Lucia's less than stellar economic performance has influenced Chastanet's lack of willingness to invest in LIAT.


ECX was set up by Butch and handed to Chastanet to run. When it failed Chastanet was fired. He never got over that. SLU blocked Caribbean Star to help ECX but when the latter failed they allowed in Caribbean Star.

SLU has one the strongest economies in the OECS, and definitely the most diversified. If he wanted $$$ for LI he can get it as SLU is better off than SVD, DOM, or GND. If DOM could find the $$ definitely SLU can. If there is one island that definitely does need LI is SLU as POS and BGI are decent markets for its tourism industry and LI routes to SLU aren't money losers.
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:37 pm

Once again LIAT's woes make the headlines. BGI is clearly in deep financial trouble and Ms Mottley, having turned to the IMF for financial support, has been told to get rid of loss-making airline investments. To those of us in the Caribbean this is nothing new; after all both POS and KIN have faced the same when turning to the IMF over the years. POS back in the 1980s was mandated to sell 3 of BWIA's 4 TriStars and lease them back and later to try to privatise the entire airline, which it did for a short time. KIN of course had to sell off JM which became part of Caribbean Airlines (BW) in 2011. The issue of transferring the debt from BGI to ANU will always be contentious and require delicate negotiations. Ultimately, though, the issue is what can LI do to stem their losses and possibly turn profits long-term?
It has been stated that 5 of LI's profitable routes involve BGI and the earlier comment suggesting that GND, SVD, SLU, ANU and OGL are the 5 seems plausible enough. One could argue, could DOM be more profitable than GND these days? DOM is highly dependent on LI for links to the rest of the world whereas GND has a range of international flights and a comparatively strong BW presence providing links via POS (DOM of course is not served by BW). It is possible that the 6th route not involving BGI is ANU - DOM although ANU - POS is a reasonable contender. LI have 2 daily flights between ANU and POS (one nonstop that is to and from OGL and one via SLU) while BW have cut their flights on this route to 2 weekly. The only other route between the countries is BA with their 2 weekly TAB - ANU services. SLU - POS would also appear on the surface to be a strong route given the business and holiday trade from POS there but again there are 3 competitors on the route with LI and BW doing daily turns and BA flying 5-weekly to UVF.
What is clear though is that LI's oft-mentioned issues of late are coming to the fore, namely that of an airline based in ANU in the Northern Caribbean but with way more traffic in the South. ANU holds most of the jobs but BGI commands much of the traffic and so stands to benefit from keeping the custom while being shorn of the costs involved. Somehow only strong, business-minded regional leadership can help to turn things around at LI while keeping the valuable inter-island links they serve largely intact. It may well require frequency reductions on some routes. Have they sold any of their planes thus far?

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 904
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:29 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Are you seriously saying that SVD O&D is as good as BGI O&D? The next time I'm at BGI waiting for a flight to OGL I'll wonder why there's a bunch of other people waiting to board the same flight.


No, what I am saying is BGI being a hub airport, its easy to think that all the pax you see are O&D. Most are simply just passing through. There are indeed good O&D traffic from BGI and OGL is probably the biggest.

caribny wrote:

Most of LI's traffic is now in the southern Caribbean with POS and BGI being the two most important destinations/point of origin.


That is because LI stupidly gave up its market share in the North, now other carriers and gobbling it up. It was a grave mistake to cut STT, STX, AXA, SDQ when it did and reduce SJU to 3x weekly. Even cutting CUR was a mistake as is now evident with InselAir's demise and BW now starting that route.

caribny wrote:
I doubt that BGI POS is profitable for LI due to BWs domination. LI has started, stopped, and started that route again. I am willing to bet that many people on that flight are connecting thru BGI to other points on LI's network.


Actually is does poorly partly because the return 336 doesnt really connect with other points in LI's network.

trinitocan wrote:
Have they sold any of their planes thus far?


No. That is what the PM of ANU is trying to avoid. He wants to accept the liability for BGI's portion of the loan for the aircraft in exchange for shares.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:57 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Are you seriously saying that SVD O&D is as good as BGI O&D? The next time I'm at BGI waiting for a flight to OGL I'll wonder why there's a bunch of other people waiting to board the same flight.


No, what I am saying is BGI being a hub airport, its easy to think that all the pax you see are O&D. Most are simply just passing through. There are indeed good O&D traffic from BGI and OGL is probably the biggest.

If you think that most pax at BGI are "simply just passing through" you need to get a better understanding of Caribbean aviation.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:25 pm

gunnerman wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Are you seriously saying that SVD O&D is as good as BGI O&D? The next time I'm at BGI waiting for a flight to OGL I'll wonder why there's a bunch of other people waiting to board the same flight.


No, what I am saying is BGI being a hub airport, its easy to think that all the pax you see are O&D. Most are simply just passing through. There are indeed good O&D traffic from BGI and OGL is probably the biggest.

If you think that most pax at BGI are "simply just passing through" you need to get a better understanding of Caribbean aviation.


It will be interesting to see if ANU has the space to assume the LI CDB debt that BGI incurred. That I suspect is the sticking point. And I am not sure if selling planes solves this problem. At some point scale economies become an issue, limiting routes that can be cut. I do agree that reduced service to STT has probably hurt the northern markets as it has opened up space for smaller carriers. STX was rumored for the chopping blocks a while ago so no surprises there. Apparently its too seasonal.

BGI is the leading destination and the second largest point of origin for intra Eastern Caribbean traffic. Even when LI was very "ANUcentric" BGI was very important. The largest SVD and SLU travel on LI is for travel to/from BGI. BGI is LIAT's largest market, with SVD and POS coming up next. BGI remains critical to LI.

The fact that GND possibly provides some subsidy on the BGI GND makes me suspect that it isn't the 5th profitable BGI route. BGI DOM probably does better. However Inter Caribbean, Air Antilles/Winair and Air Sunshine have gobbled up much of LI's DOM market. You no longer need LI if you are travelling into DOM from SXM and the US/BVI.

What killed LI's northern routes is the very high fares. Much of this travel used to be spontaneous or shopping. At US$400 that begins to lose appeal. The USVI VFR market is now dying, and in some case literally as many of those who migrated in the 60s now live 6 feet under. With LIAT moving to bigger planes its probably appropriate 19/30 seaters take over these markets.
 
gunnerman
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Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:10 pm

You can understand the Mitchell government being concerned about LIAT's failure as GND gets three daily nonstops from BGI. It used to be inferior some years ago as one was via CIW, another via TAB with only the last being nonstop. And LIAT does POS-GND double-daily as well.
 
303dk
Posts: 479
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:26 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:20 am

caribny wrote:
What killed LI's northern routes is the very high fares. Much of this travel used to be spontaneous or shopping. At US$400 that begins to lose appeal. The USVI VFR market is now dying, and in some case literally as many of those who migrated in the 60s now live 6 feet under. With LIAT moving to bigger planes its probably appropriate 19/30 seaters take over these markets.

The new reality is that the USVI VFR market is to SDQ and STI, not the eastern Caribbean
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:24 am

gunnerman wrote:
You can understand the Mitchell government being concerned about LIAT's failure as GND gets three daily nonstops from BGI. It used to be inferior some years ago as one was via CIW, another via TAB with only the last being nonstop. And LIAT does POS-GND double-daily as well.


GND is subsidizing LI GND BGI routes. In fact that is a model that LI should adopt. Rather than crying for gov'ts to sink money into a hole they should identify the routes which aren't profitable and then demand a subsidy, or the route to be withdrawn. And I dont mean sectors that are part of a profitable route, such as SLU SVD which exists mainly to allow more service on the BGI SLU and BGI SVD routes by combining them.

And I really think on the POS market LI and BW should work out arrangements, like maybe a codeshare. No point 2 loss making carriers running half empty planes.
Last edited by caribny on Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:25 am

303dk wrote:
The new reality is that the USVI VFR market is to SDQ and STI, not the eastern Caribbean



Ironically its the larger countries like the DR and Jamaica which are the "poor" ones needing to migrate to the USVI. No longer the OECS islands like SKN or ANU. How much things have changed! In fact some who migrated to the USVI have now returned home.

Sky High is doing well out of this DR VFR markets with service to the smaller islands in the northeast Caribbean, even to AXA. I see that SKB and ANU now get their jet service.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:54 am

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
You can understand the Mitchell government being concerned about LIAT's failure as GND gets three daily nonstops from BGI. It used to be inferior some years ago as one was via CIW, another via TAB with only the last being nonstop. And LIAT does POS-GND double-daily as well.


GND is subsidizing LI GND BGI routes. In fact that is a model that LI should adopt. Rather than crying for gov'ts to sink money into a hole they should identify the routes which aren't profitable and then demand a subsidy, or the route to be withdrawn. And I dont mean sectors that are part of a profitable route, such as SLU SVD which exists mainly to allow more service on the BGI SLU and BGI SVD routes by combining them.

And I really think on the POS market LI and BW should work out arrangements, like maybe a codeshare. No point 2 loss making carriers running half empty planes.

I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:29 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
You can understand the Mitchell government being concerned about LIAT's failure as GND gets three daily nonstops from BGI. It used to be inferior some years ago as one was via CIW, another via TAB with only the last being nonstop. And LIAT does POS-GND double-daily as well.


GND is subsidizing LI GND BGI routes. In fact that is a model that LI should adopt. Rather than crying for gov'ts to sink money into a hole they should identify the routes which aren't profitable and then demand a subsidy, or the route to be withdrawn. And I dont mean sectors that are part of a profitable route, such as SLU SVD which exists mainly to allow more service on the BGI SLU and BGI SVD routes by combining them.

And I really think on the POS market LI and BW should work out arrangements, like maybe a codeshare. No point 2 loss making carriers running half empty planes.

I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.


BW will never be a one fleet aircraft. LI would never serve POS-TAB at the levels desired by the GoRTT and as long as BW has to serve that route, it will operate its ATR to other destinations to fully maximize usage and to attempt to offset losses on the domestic air bridge by flying more profitable routes (in theory, at least). The only way BW becomes a single fleet carrier is if the GoRTT starts a spin off airline whose sole focus is the domestic air bridge and I think they have realized it's better for them to have that service covered by a larger airline that can offset costs elsewhere than to prop up an airline solely dedicated to that service.
 
BWA900
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:56 pm

Virgin Atlantic to to Halt Flights To Saint Lucia:

https://stluciatimes.com/virgin-atlanti ... nKzdFIN7Jc
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 B712 B735 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:00 pm

If UVF is axed then the continuing flights will also go, being GND (on Mondays and Fridays) and TAB (on Sundays). Bearing in mind all the flight reductions we've seen to the Caribbean from the UK over many years I hope that some resolution to this dispute can be found.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:12 pm

IMO, the fact that the cancellation is being announced this far in advance is to allow both sides to be able to come to some sort of agreement. I doubt that it benefits either side to have VS drop UVF. UVF will lose out on airlift and VS will lose one of the more popular Caribbean destinations.
 
BWA900
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:15 pm

HAV is moving to LHR & ANU is to be served 4x weekly tagging GND & TAB. Virgin is expected to make an official statement.
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 B712 B735 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
gunnerman
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:23 pm

VS plans to increase LGW-ANU from three to four per week and change from the 332 to the 333. However this will not be an increase in capacity as I believe the 332 is a 266-seater (19 Upper, 35 Premium, 212 Economy) and the 333 to be 264-seater (31, 48, 185). No matter how you look at it, a reduction from six to four flights a week is significant in this market.
 
BWA900
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:37 pm

Will BA will add flights to UVF as a result?
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 B712 B735 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
caribbean484
Posts: 856
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:01 pm

gunnerman wrote:
VS plans to increase LGW-ANU from three to four per week and change from the 332 to the 333. However this will not be an increase in capacity as I believe the 332 is a 266-seater (19 Upper, 35 Premium, 212 Economy) and the 333 to be 264-seater (31, 48, 185). No matter how you look at it, a reduction from six to four flights a week is significant in this market.


Brickell305 wrote:
IMO, the fact that the cancellation is being announced this far in advance is to allow both sides to be able to come to some sort of agreement. I doubt that it benefits either side to have VS drop UVF. UVF will lose out on airlift and VS will lose one of the more popular Caribbean destinations.


It's not good at all, the question will be who will take up the slack? VS leaving will have an almost 1000 seats per week being lost in the EC market. So will TUI or Thomas Cook fill the void? Or will BA increase flights if demand is there?
The fact that they are adamant and already scheduling for the Summer next year means this is serious, however it looks like there is still sine time for negotiations to continue.


Brickell305 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:

GND is subsidizing LI GND BGI routes. In fact that is a model that LI should adopt. Rather than crying for gov'ts to sink money into a hole they should identify the routes which aren't profitable and then demand a subsidy, or the route to be withdrawn. And I dont mean sectors that are part of a profitable route, such as SLU SVD which exists mainly to allow more service on the BGI SLU and BGI SVD routes by combining them.

And I really think on the POS market LI and BW should work out arrangements, like maybe a codeshare. No point 2 loss making carriers running half empty planes.

I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.


BW will never be a one fleet aircraft. LI would never serve POS-TAB at the levels desired by the GoRTT and as long as BW has to serve that route, it will operate its ATR to other destinations to fully maximize usage and to attempt to offset losses on the domestic air bridge by flying more profitable routes (in theory, at least). The only way BW becomes a single fleet carrier is if the GoRTT starts a spin off airline whose sole focus is the domestic air bridge and I think they have realized it's better for them to have that service covered by a larger airline that can offset costs elsewhere than to prop up an airline solely dedicated to that service.


Agreed it's not going to happen, the two fleet strategy works for CAL as has been shown many times, they airlines operations are profitable. The part is adding a third fleet to fly long haul never works.
The last time there was a dedicated airline on the POS-TAB route, Air Caribbean, they had to add Miami to their network to offset some of the losses and eventually collapsed.
The GOTT requires CAL to operate the POS-TAB route, there is no way LI can operate 42-48 flights per day between the two islands at a loss, unless the GOTT also covers all the losses there too. As we saw last year CAL lost about TT42m operating that route while the international operaitrons made a profit.

LIATs probems stems from their strategy, as CaribNY theorized it seems they may not truly understand their operation flow; The Northern Caribbean has been significantly cut over the years, with ANU traffic declining? BGI seems to have seen an increase in connecting traffic. If that is the case then there needs to be a serious evaluation of the airline's hub structure and traffic flow.
Also I am not sure why LI operates the POS-BGI route when it is clear they are not making any competitive headway against BW. POS-BGI is highly profitable route for CAL served 3 daily. If you look at the fares CAL is constantly higher with higher loads, why not just code share on that route to reduce their exposure.
POS-GND CAL also carries a significant number of the O&D market
I also know the POS-ANU route even 2 week has contribution high margins for that flight segment.

Also the lower travel between islands as the North American Airlines have added a number of fights and the ridiculous taxes added over the years are beating down LI.
All ah we is one family
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:19 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
VS plans to increase LGW-ANU from three to four per week and change from the 332 to the 333. However this will not be an increase in capacity as I believe the 332 is a 266-seater (19 Upper, 35 Premium, 212 Economy) and the 333 to be 264-seater (31, 48, 185). No matter how you look at it, a reduction from six to four flights a week is significant in this market.


Brickell305 wrote:
IMO, the fact that the cancellation is being announced this far in advance is to allow both sides to be able to come to some sort of agreement. I doubt that it benefits either side to have VS drop UVF. UVF will lose out on airlift and VS will lose one of the more popular Caribbean destinations.


It's not good at all, the question will be who will take up the slack? VS leaving will have an almost 1000 seats per week being lost in the EC market. So will TUI or Thomas Cook fill the void? Or will BA increase flights if demand is there?
The fact that they are adamant and already scheduling for the Summer next year means this is serious, however it looks like there is still sine time for negotiations to continue.

It's been a long time since the four big travel groups (Tui, Thomas Cook, First Choice and Airtours) all had a charter airline, with other airlines such as Monarch and Caledonian or Excel also flying to the Caribbean. Now we've only got BA, VS, Tui and TC, with the fate of TC still unknown. On paper it's BA which is best placed to fill the gap, but who knows if BA will change its plans on where to deploy its aircraft and crew next summer. Of course BA doesn't have to do anything and the increased demand for nonstops to/from UVF will boost yields. But if BA were to take action it might be an additional LGW-UVF per week with no tag.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:29 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
VS plans to increase LGW-ANU from three to four per week and change from the 332 to the 333. However this will not be an increase in capacity as I believe the 332 is a 266-seater (19 Upper, 35 Premium, 212 Economy) and the 333 to be 264-seater (31, 48, 185). No matter how you look at it, a reduction from six to four flights a week is significant in this market.


Brickell305 wrote:
IMO, the fact that the cancellation is being announced this far in advance is to allow both sides to be able to come to some sort of agreement. I doubt that it benefits either side to have VS drop UVF. UVF will lose out on airlift and VS will lose one of the more popular Caribbean destinations.


It's not good at all, the question will be who will take up the slack? VS leaving will have an almost 1000 seats per week being lost in the EC market. So will TUI or Thomas Cook fill the void? Or will BA increase flights if demand is there?
The fact that they are adamant and already scheduling for the Summer next year means this is serious, however it looks like there is still sine time for negotiations to continue.

It's been a long time since the four big travel groups (Tui, Thomas Cook, First Choice and Airtours) all had a charter airline, with other airlines such as Monarch and Caledonian or Excel also flying to the Caribbean. Now we've only got BA, VS, Tui and TC, with the fate of TC still unknown. On paper it's BA which is best placed to fill the gap, but who knows if BA will change its plans on where to deploy its aircraft and crew next summer. Of course BA doesn't have to do anything and the increased demand for nonstops to/from UVF will boost yields. But if BA were to take action it might be an additional LGW-UVF per week with no tag.

The most interesting thing about all of this to me is that just a month ago, there was a subsidy related issue between VS and ANU:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has downplayed reports of UK-based Virgin Atlantic Airline pulling out some its flights from the country.

On Wednesday, it was reported that Virgin Atlantic was threatening to pull out of the twin island unless an increase in subsidy was made to the company in order to continue operations.

Speaking at the post-Cabinet press briefing yesterday, Chief of Staff in the Office of the Prime Minister, Lionel “Max” Hurst denied the reports, saying that it was a normal occurrence that Virgin Atlantic would reduce its flights during the summer months.

“Virgin is not planning to pull any flights. What happens during the summer months is that there are fewer passengers coming to the Caribbean—not just Antigua and Barbuda. This is a time when persons go to Europe so the traffic, both vessels and the aircraft gets diverted to Europe, Alaska during this time of the year,” he said, adding that Virgin Atlantic was looking for more money.

On Wednesday, Tourism Minister Charles “Max” Fernandez confirmed that the airline was asking for a subsidy increase.

He said that a subsidy payment was made in the past, prior to his tenure, but added that while he did not know the details or the value of the earlier subsidy, negotiations with the airline were ongoing.

https://antiguaobserver.com/govt-downpl ... c-pullout/


I'm guessing there must have been some payment or other arrangement made.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:47 pm

I think it's known as "marketing support".
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:19 pm

gunnerman wrote:
[
I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.



BW has to have a 2 fleet operation because of its TAB service. No way that LI could be expected to service this high volume route which often has more than 20x (R/T) daily. BW only runs 3x daily with ATRs to points other than TAB.
 
BW600
Posts: 24
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Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:38 pm

BW has received approval from the Cayman Authorities to operate its planned KIN-GCM route. This route was intended to launch this month but with approval only just being granted it now looks like an October launch. KX recently increased its frequency on the route for the busy summer period. Could it be the authorities were delaying approval to benefit KX.


https://cayman27.ky/2019/07/caribbean-a ... yman-soon/
POS TAB BGI NAS MIA MCO JFK LAS LAX SFO SEA YYZ YUL YOW YEG YYC YVR LGW AMS NCE CDG
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:43 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
[
I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.



BW has to have a 2 fleet operation because of its TAB service. No way that LI could be expected to service this high volume route which often has more than 20x (R/T) daily. BW only runs 3x daily with ATRs to points other than TAB.

The frequency on the route is ridiculous. One solution is to have fewer flights with 737s and to rotate these planes to keep cycles down. An improvement on the ferry service won't go amiss either.
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:50 am

Brickell305 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:

GND is subsidizing LI GND BGI routes. In fact that is a model that LI should adopt. Rather than crying for gov'ts to sink money into a hole they should identify the routes which aren't profitable and then demand a subsidy, or the route to be withdrawn. And I dont mean sectors that are part of a profitable route, such as SLU SVD which exists mainly to allow more service on the BGI SLU and BGI SVD routes by combining them.

And I really think on the POS market LI and BW should work out arrangements, like maybe a codeshare. No point 2 loss making carriers running half empty planes.

I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.


BW will never be a one fleet aircraft. LI would never serve POS-TAB at the levels desired by the GoRTT and as long as BW has to serve that route, it will operate its ATR to other destinations to fully maximize usage and to attempt to offset losses on the domestic air bridge by flying more profitable routes (in theory, at least). The only way BW becomes a single fleet carrier is if the GoRTT starts a spin off airline whose sole focus is the domestic air bridge and I think they have realized it's better for them to have that service covered by a larger airline that can offset costs elsewhere than to prop up an airline solely dedicated to that service.


Trinidad & Tobago have had several attempts to run stand-alone domestic carriers, the most recent of which was Tobago Express. TB started flying in 2001 and operated 2 De Havilland Canada Dash 8 Q300s on the shuttle, alongside which BWIA operated a few services on their own Dash 8s and LI had a daily rotation in each direction. TB was set up after the collapse of privately owned Air Caribbean in the previous year. TB operated the most flights on the route with the sole advantage of flying BWIA being BWee Miles being available to members of the frequent flyer club. TB grew to 5 Dash 8s in 2003 after taking over the BWee Express Dash 8s and thence several services to several neighbouring islands, the rationale being that their lower cost base elative to BWIA made it advantageous to do so. In the end the domestic route was considered to be run in a substandard fashion as the regional routes appeared to be prioritised and the Government had to wet-lease planes from elsewhere to shore up the service. By 2005 TB were mandated to solely serve the domestic route, which they did until being merged with Caribbean Airlines in 2007. In the grand scheme of things the economies of scale by having the route operated by a larger entity make sense and thus BW would always need a two-type fleet as turbofan jets are very inefficient on the short 15 minute hops. There is the additional benefit of TAB being tied into BW's routes elsewhere via POS connections - although if arriving in POS the Immigration and Customs are cleared before proceeding to TAB.

LI could not single-handedly serve POS-TAB at the present flight frequency (20 or more flights daily each way) without significantly compromising the remainder of their routes. The very fact that, in spite of offering a wide range of services to destinations such as JFK, YYZ and GEO among others, BW remain overwhelmingly defined and dominated by the Airbridge hints at the sort of impact operating it would have on a much smaller airline. It would certainly be good if the T&T Government could come to an agreement with LI to resume a daily POS - TAB - BGI and vice versa service, thus adding independent capacity to the Airbridge as well as an alternative gateway to TAB.

As has been said on this forum for years, the tangled regional politics surrounding aviation has stymied cooperation and is in large part responsible for the current state of affairs.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:38 am

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
[
I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.



BW has to have a 2 fleet operation because of its TAB service. No way that LI could be expected to service this high volume route which often has more than 20x (R/T) daily. BW only runs 3x daily with ATRs to points other than TAB.

The frequency on the route is ridiculous. One solution is to have fewer flights with 737s and to rotate these planes to keep cycles down. An improvement on the ferry service won't go amiss either.

The route frequency on POS-TAB is needed because the demand is phenomenally high and has steadily risen over the years. The sustained use of the 737s of whatever flavour on the route is suboptimal as all one would do is run up their cycles and increase maintenance costs while shortening their lifespans. In addition the jets are optimised for much longer routes and are thus inefficient when deployed on the 15 minute puddle hop. I agree that improvement in the ferry service would greatly help things. The issues with the ferries, alongside the problems of serviceability of the boats themselves, include the centralisation of the service in Port of Spain and the heavy traffic congestion involved in getting there. An integrated approach to transport, including regular buses directly to the ferry port and the development of a second Trinidadian port would help. The latter has been explored with Toco on the NE coast being suggested as a suitable location for a shorter crossing but the presence of a large coral reef in the area has caused environmental concerns to be raised.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:52 am

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
[
I have already posted that in a rational world a little carrier like BW should not be operating two fleets (used to be three until the two 763s were returned to ILFC in 2016) and the island hopping should be done by LIAT. But Caribbean aviation is not rational, and LIAT's dire straits can only encourage the TnT government to keep their airline operating the way it is.



BW has to have a 2 fleet operation because of its TAB service. No way that LI could be expected to service this high volume route which often has more than 20x (R/T) daily. BW only runs 3x daily with ATRs to points other than TAB.


BW run more than 3 daily round trips with ATRs on their wider network. They run BGI x2, GND x1-2, SLU x1 per day and SVD 2-3x week. They were also used on the now-suspended CCS route.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:48 am

BWA900 wrote:
Virgin Atlantic to to Halt Flights To Saint Lucia:

https://stluciatimes.com/virgin-atlanti ... nKzdFIN7Jc


This is quite significant news indeed. Is it all about subsidies (route guarantees in official speak)? In recent years St Lucia has become increasingly wary about paying these sorts of subs to airlines and have questioned the overall value of doing so. That said, given how large a market UVF is and its high profile as a destination I find it quite surprising that VS would announce a pull-out. One wonders if larger profit issues are causing VS and their minders (DL) to play hardball with Caribbean islands.

The newspaper quoted above includes comments from readers arguing whether a dolphin park there is the reason for the drawdown. I was not aware that there was one in St Lucia but hey, I stand to be corrected. This is nonetheless an interesting point. Dolphin and orca parks have come under much criticism in recent years owing to the animals' captivity and instances of mistreatment. This has led to many tour operators effectively boycotting them by not selling tickets on their platforms. As an example, the world-famous Loro Parque in Tenerife has long been one of the island's largest attractions. Located in Puerto de la Cruz in the North of the island, the Parrot Park features a zoo, a penguin enclosure which is kept cool and dark to simulate the seasons in the Antarctic and a walk-through aquarium among others. Needless to say, there are lots of parrots too! The Parque has attracted considerable controversy for its orca attraction, which includes live shows. An orca killed one of the attendants there a few years ago. In consequence the major British tour operators, TUI and Thomas Cook, have stopped featuring the Parque or selling tickets - although one can buy them easily in Tenerife or indeed the other Canaries. That said, though, the airlines have not pulled out or cut capacity there simply because of this and so I think this issue is a red herring, notwithstanding Virgin Holidays' view being in line with the others.

The more likely issue is that UK travel has softened somewhat. The Brexit uncertainty has sapped demand coupled with which the weakening of the pound has practically increased the cost of holidays overseas. When one adds this to VS lacking the regional route rights that BA have (so passengers can, for instance, fly BA UVF-POS and UVF-GND and vv but cannot use VS UVF-GND or UVF-TAB) which could have added some local traffic to the mix, one sees VS as being very exposed to these problems.

BA have been expanding their LGW 777 fleet in recent years as Dreamliners have arrived at LHR. As such they are in the best position to take advantage of a VS pullout from UVF. AS mentioned elsewhere an additional weekly flight or two dedicated to UVF may be the outcome.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
BWA900
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed May 14, 2014 11:20 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:41 pm

trintocan wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
Virgin Atlantic to to Halt Flights To Saint Lucia:

https://stluciatimes.com/virgin-atlanti ... nKzdFIN7Jc


This is quite significant news indeed. Is it all about subsidies (route guarantees in official speak)? In recent years St Lucia has become increasingly wary about paying these sorts of subs to airlines and have questioned the overall value of doing so. That said, given how large a market UVF is and its high profile as a destination I find it quite surprising that VS would announce a pull-out. One wonders if larger profit issues are causing VS and their minders (DL) to play hardball with Caribbean islands.

The newspaper quoted above includes comments from readers arguing whether a dolphin park there is the reason for the drawdown. I was not aware that there was one in St Lucia but hey, I stand to be corrected. This is nonetheless an interesting point. Dolphin and orca parks have come under much criticism in recent years owing to the animals' captivity and instances of mistreatment. This has led to many tour operators effectively boycotting them by not selling tickets on their platforms. As an example, the world-famous Loro Parque in Tenerife has long been one of the island's largest attractions. Located in Puerto de la Cruz in the North of the island, the Parrot Park features a zoo, a penguin enclosure which is kept cool and dark to simulate the seasons in the Antarctic and a walk-through aquarium among others. Needless to say, there are lots of parrots too! The Parque has attracted considerable controversy for its orca attraction, which includes live shows. An orca killed one of the attendants there a few years ago. In consequence the major British tour operators, TUI and Thomas Cook, have stopped featuring the Parque or selling tickets - although one can buy them easily in Tenerife or indeed the other Canaries. That said, though, the airlines have not pulled out or cut capacity there simply because of this and so I think this issue is a red herring, notwithstanding Virgin Holidays' view being in line with the others.

The more likely issue is that UK travel has softened somewhat. The Brexit uncertainty has sapped demand coupled with which the weakening of the pound has practically increased the cost of holidays overseas. When one adds this to VS lacking the regional route rights that BA have (so passengers can, for instance, fly BA UVF-POS and UVF-GND and vv but cannot use VS UVF-GND or UVF-TAB) which could have added some local traffic to the mix, one sees VS as being very exposed to these problems.

BA have been expanding their LGW 777 fleet in recent years as Dreamliners have arrived at LHR. As such they are in the best position to take advantage of a VS pullout from UVF. AS mentioned elsewhere an additional weekly flight or two dedicated to UVF may be the outcome.

Trintocan.



The Dolphin park thing caught my eye. Where was VS's outrage with ALL the captive marine life in Central Florida? Yes Seaworld did announced the ending of Orca shows but other mammals would still remain in captivity for an unfrozen amount of time. That is where I believe this was not a factor causing VS to pull out as VS Holidays will still be operating via other partners to St. Lucia.

However, the airline has been changing their focus on some routes. Even CUN/DXB was cut and HAV/MBJ was scheduled to be decreased some time back. If one checks their network frequency, its should be quite clear what destinations are of absolute importance to the airline. It is interesting that you mentioned local traffic rights as that could have played a role in the decision. Maybe that is why both ANU (rumored to have paid) and UVF (maybe amongst others) were approached about subsidies.
Flown: A300 A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A359 A388 B712 B735 B737 B738 B739 B38M B744 B752 B753 B763 B772ER B772LR B77W B788 B789 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DH8A DH8B DH8D E145 E170 E190
 
trintocan
Posts: 2774
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 6:02 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:21 am

BWA900 wrote:
trintocan wrote:
BWA900 wrote:
Virgin Atlantic to to Halt Flights To Saint Lucia:

https://stluciatimes.com/virgin-atlanti ... nKzdFIN7Jc


This is quite significant news indeed. Is it all about subsidies (route guarantees in official speak)? In recent years St Lucia has become increasingly wary about paying these sorts of subs to airlines and have questioned the overall value of doing so. That said, given how large a market UVF is and its high profile as a destination I find it quite surprising that VS would announce a pull-out. One wonders if larger profit issues are causing VS and their minders (DL) to play hardball with Caribbean islands.

The newspaper quoted above includes comments from readers arguing whether a dolphin park there is the reason for the drawdown. I was not aware that there was one in St Lucia but hey, I stand to be corrected. This is nonetheless an interesting point. Dolphin and orca parks have come under much criticism in recent years owing to the animals' captivity and instances of mistreatment. This has led to many tour operators effectively boycotting them by not selling tickets on their platforms. As an example, the world-famous Loro Parque in Tenerife has long been one of the island's largest attractions. Located in Puerto de la Cruz in the North of the island, the Parrot Park features a zoo, a penguin enclosure which is kept cool and dark to simulate the seasons in the Antarctic and a walk-through aquarium among others. Needless to say, there are lots of parrots too! The Parque has attracted considerable controversy for its orca attraction, which includes live shows. An orca killed one of the attendants there a few years ago. In consequence the major British tour operators, TUI and Thomas Cook, have stopped featuring the Parque or selling tickets - although one can buy them easily in Tenerife or indeed the other Canaries. That said, though, the airlines have not pulled out or cut capacity there simply because of this and so I think this issue is a red herring, notwithstanding Virgin Holidays' view being in line with the others.

The more likely issue is that UK travel has softened somewhat. The Brexit uncertainty has sapped demand coupled with which the weakening of the pound has practically increased the cost of holidays overseas. When one adds this to VS lacking the regional route rights that BA have (so passengers can, for instance, fly BA UVF-POS and UVF-GND and vv but cannot use VS UVF-GND or UVF-TAB) which could have added some local traffic to the mix, one sees VS as being very exposed to these problems.

BA have been expanding their LGW 777 fleet in recent years as Dreamliners have arrived at LHR. As such they are in the best position to take advantage of a VS pullout from UVF. AS mentioned elsewhere an additional weekly flight or two dedicated to UVF may be the outcome.

Trintocan.



The Dolphin park thing caught my eye. Where was VS's outrage with ALL the captive marine life in Central Florida? Yes Seaworld did announced the ending of Orca shows but other mammals would still remain in captivity for an unfrozen amount of time. That is where I believe this was not a factor causing VS to pull out as VS Holidays will still be operating via other partners to St. Lucia.

However, the airline has been changing their focus on some routes. Even CUN/DXB was cut and HAV/MBJ was scheduled to be decreased some time back. If one checks their network frequency, its should be quite clear what destinations are of absolute importance to the airline. It is interesting that you mentioned local traffic rights as that could have played a role in the decision. Maybe that is why both ANU (rumored to have paid) and UVF (maybe amongst others) were approached about subsidies.


VS is a bit of a mishmash of an airline, on the one hand being a LHR-based mainline carrier flying on the more profitable routes out of there and on the other hand being a LGW-based holiday carrier. The result of this has been a reputation of a split personality with the products varying significantly between the two sides of the operation. LHR generally got new planes while LGW got hand-me-downs (the A330-300s there being an exception). The LHR routes were mainly based around the airline having the Bermuda 2 rights to the US market from there and gave them a significant competitive edge compared to most US carriers who were forced to fly from LGW. With US - EU Open Skies in 2008 VS have struggled to define their market niche as the US carriers have been able to serve LHR and the non-aligned VS lost much market share. The 49% shareholding by DL means that now they are refocused on the US market and fly in tandem with the ATL-based giant. LGW routes have been largely dictated by Virgin Holidays' requirements.

We can thus see how this relates to both CUN and DXB being dropped. CUN has had significant image problems lately as a perception of it being unsafe arose after shootings in the area. The UK market there has dropped off and, with many airlines flying there, VS saw it fit to leave the market and let Virgin Holidays purchase flights from other providers. DXB was something of an orphan route for VS, being LHR based but effectively a holiday route for their sister company. In recent years the DXB market has seen massiva capacity increases thanks to EK and their A380s from both LHR and LGW plus QF adding their Super Jumbos to the mix thanks to the tie-up with them. With BA also operating multiple daily flights VS with just the one daily flight had no place in the market.

We will see how the Caribbean matters pan out for them.
Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:37 pm

If VS wanted to carry revenue traffic on its tag routes it could have applied for exemption from fifth freedom restrrictions as allowed under the relevant ASAs. VS's policy here is in contrast to that of BA's where revenue traffic is carried on every fifth freedom Caribbean route, namely ANU-SKB, ANU-TAB, ANU-PLS, UVF-POS, UVF-GND and NAS-GCM. It should be noted that this fifth freedom traffic isn't a free revenue earner as time and effort must be expended in things such as selling tickets, making refunds and checking in passengers.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:25 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The frequency on the route is ridiculous. One solution is to have fewer flights with 737s and to rotate these planes to keep cycles down. An improvement on the ferry service won't go amiss either.



Running a high frequency jet on a 50 mile route? I look forward to what the technical experts say but this doesnt seem right. Especially as this route is a huge money loser and those jets can be better deployed onto more profitable routes.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 856
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:37 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The frequency on the route is ridiculous. One solution is to have fewer flights with 737s and to rotate these planes to keep cycles down. An improvement on the ferry service won't go amiss either.



Running a high frequency jet on a 50 mile route? I look forward to what the technical experts say but this doesn't seem right. Especially as this route is a huge money loser and those jets can be better deployed onto more profitable routes.


Its not feasible. The BWIA did that for sometime in 1998-1999 to get back into the domestic route and it was costly with the MD80s. An analysis was done in 2001 when the 738s were doing flights on the route, the cost for maintenance on the engine was higher than anticipated and that's why you rarely see the 738 on the route outside maybe 1 flight to replace an ATR.

Even when the RFPs were sent for the Dash8 replacement, Bombardier and ATR both noted that their props were much more cost efficient for the route, with Bombardier also enticing CAL with the Cseries for regional routes.

gunnerman wrote:
If VS wanted to carry revenue traffic on its tag routes it could have applied for exemption from fifth freedom restrrictions as allowed under the relevant ASAs. VS's policy here is in contrast to that of BA's where revenue traffic is carried on every fifth freedom Caribbean route, namely ANU-SKB, ANU-TAB, ANU-PLS, UVF-POS, UVF-GND and NAS-GCM. It should be noted that this fifth freedom traffic isn't a free revenue earner as time and effort must be expended in things such as selling tickets, making refunds and checking in passengers.


To me it seems that VS is focusing more on where the aircraft can be more profitable, and since they are still in the red. But IMO if you are operating a route for 21 years with competition being the same mostly would be telling. It would seem the economic condition on the route had change with the UK economy slowing and the GBP decreasing in value.

BW600 wrote:
BW has received approval from the Cayman Authorities to operate its planned KIN-GCM route. This route was intended to launch this month but with approval only just being granted it now looks like an October launch. KX recently increased its frequency on the route for the busy summer period. Could it be the authorities were delaying approval to benefit KX.


I was thinking the same but, I don't believe that to be the case since we don't know what was going on behind the scene. At least now the route is approved, lets see how the flights are timed for onward connection to the south.
All ah we is one family
 
aa1818
Posts: 1550
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:37 pm

Morning all,
Can anyone confirm whether BW is in fact still flying POS-CCS? Heard someone saying it is a Saturday only service using the ATR but I cannot confirm and their website keeps timing out when I try to check it.

KIN-GCM is a great add for BW. Hopefully with these new adds they'll create a more seamless POS-KIN-XXX option for businessmen and families travelling to the northern and western Caribbean.

Has BW gotten the approval for POS-CUR yet?

Cheers,
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
Brickell305
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:56 pm

aa1818 wrote:
Morning all,
Can anyone confirm whether BW is in fact still flying POS-CCS? Heard someone saying it is a Saturday only service using the ATR but I cannot confirm and their website keeps timing out when I try to check it.

KIN-GCM is a great add for BW. Hopefully with these new adds they'll create a more seamless POS-KIN-XXX option for businessmen and families travelling to the northern and western Caribbean.

Has BW gotten the approval for POS-CUR yet?

Cheers,
AA1818

Yes, POS-CCS is still flown. As you said, Sat only ATR.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2802
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:41 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Yes, POS-CCS is still flown. As you said, Sat only ATR.
Wonder how much of that POS-CSS-POS traffic is connecting to/from. MIA/FLL.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
caribny
Posts: 129
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:48 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Yes, POS-CCS is still flown. As you said, Sat only ATR.
Wonder how much of that POS-CSS-POS traffic is connecting to/from. MIA/FLL.



None. Its a very early morning flight from POS. I suspect its a "place holder" to allow BW to "abandon" the route, but still not to be seen as abandoning Maduro's govt. The govt of T&T is being very careful in how it handles that regime given its proximity.
 
danipawa
Posts: 158
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:08 am

Dominican start-up Flycana plans to finalise its capitalisation and recertification processes by year-end, as it targets an operational start in early 2020 and a 32-strong jet fleet by 2025.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 25-460196/
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 904
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:13 pm

Well it appears OneCaribbean's 747 has left BGI. I understand failure to get it registered under ECCAA or BCAD regs is the reason for its abrupt departure. No surprise here really. That plan was rediculous from jump street.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:52 pm

I have read that the Barbados PM Mia Mottley instructed the Director of Civil Aviation to have this aircraft registered despite objection from the DCA which has no resources to provide oversight for this aircraft. This was done and the registration was 8P-ERI. It's a mystery who had the clout to get this done.
 
danipawa
Posts: 158
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:12 pm

Sky High Dominicana new paint scheme:

Image

Image

Flycana launch plans:

Flycana chief targets 32-strong fleet by 2025

Dominican start-up Flycana plans to finalise its capitalisation and recertification processes by year-end, as it targets an operational start in early 2020 and a 32-strong jet fleet by 2025


In reference to the fleet, he notes: "We have to take a decision soon and of course we are evaluating all options. While Dominican Wings has already experience with the Airbus A320, the Boeing 737 Max 8 is certainly an attractive aircraft."

But he adds: "I also learned to appreciate the A320 as a power workhorse for low-cost operations with Viva Colombia... We might want to start with used and quickly available A319s to minimise trip and capital costs during the start-up period [and] later prioritise the fuel efficiency of the A320neo or even the range of the A321LR."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... aIVhJEkc2I
 
gunnerman
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:57 pm

'the Boeing 737 Max 8 is certainly an attractive aircraft'
No it isn't.

'Jacobsen describes the A321LR as "a game changer, which could eventually allow us to offer flights to Europe without assuming the risk of a dedicated fleet and the cost of a widebody operation'
Another Caribbean startup with European ambitions. Warning: the European carriers are backed by tour operators and know how to fill their planes.

'Flycana has identified a number of US destinations with sizeable Dominican communities which currently lack nonstop services'
Don't be shy, name them. And US carriers fly to SDQ from JFK, EWR, BOS, PHL, CLT, MIA, MCO, FLL and ATL, so what's missing?

'Jacobsen promises "fast connections" to "destinations in the Caribbean region and important cities throughout South America, including Brazil's northeast, where we see demand for new and better connections with the USA'
These regions already have nonstop flights from various hubs such as ATL and MIA, so it will be tough to compete.
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