Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
usxguy wrote:OGG is gonna get its first 787-9 today... AC 537 is inbound from YVR
WPvsMW wrote:New WN effect: HA starts OGG/SMF before WN's announced service.
Concurrently, HA and VA expand codeshares.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/04/ ... agreement/
usxguy wrote:WN is playing it safe. Remember, the last "entrant" into the interisland market was a bit of a flop (Mokulele E170s) with lots and lots of frequency in LIH/OGG and not enough to KOA/ITO where they already had brand awareness.
my bet: WN will be increasing inter-island services a few notches in the next schedule release. I think we'll see KOA & OGG up to 6 or 7 a day before they add in LIH/ITO. The number folks are watching everything like a hawk....
WPvsMW wrote:I think HA should use some Dreamliners for S.Am. to N.E. Asia (odd to use the British colonial term for an area that is N.W. of Hawaii), scissored at HNL. My friends in network planning give me a WTF grimace at that idea, but HA needs to be bold, because WN is not AQ or WP. WN could not match such LH WB service.
wnflyguy wrote:Once the MAX8 is back in service I think the November 3,2019 to January 4, 2020 Extension will see the remaining delayed 2019 summer expansion.
wnflyguy wrote:The big money maker I'm told for Hawaii inter island flights will be Inter Island freight contracts it's getting established.
Flyguy
ScottB wrote:There are two key problems with trying to address that market: (1) It's pretty tiny and probably not large enough to support a scissor hub at HNL.
ScottB wrote:There are two key problems with trying to address that market: ((2) For just about everywhere in East Asia apart from Japan and the Russian Far East, it's shorter to go the other way via IST or DXB ...
WPvsMW wrote:ScottB wrote:apart from Japan and the Russian Far East
Wrong. A scissor in HNL is shorter than via LAX from, e.g., SCL, and shorter even than EZE-LAX-NRT. GRU-LAX-NRT is ~300 miles shorter than GRU-HNL-NRT. With a small delta in block hours, connection time would drive booking. Scissoring through LAX and HNL is shorter than through IST or DXB.
WPvsMW wrote:wnflyguy wrote:The big money maker I'm told for Hawaii inter island flights will be Inter Island freight contracts it's getting established.
Flyguy
Yes, WN belly cargo is going to hurt HA, KH (Aeko Kula, Inc. DBA Aloha Air Cargo), and TransAir, but N.I. consumers will benefit, esp. perishables from the mainland .... and Amazon Prime customers. Prime Air will get the goods to HNL, then sorted and dispatched interisland.
ScottB wrote:And there's still the much higher costs of operating a hub at HNL than at DXB or IST.
WPvsMW wrote:The interisland market and TPAC market are different.
laca773 wrote:Why is there so much talk about WN delaying mainland service when they don't have any 7M8s ETOPS certified? Only their 738s are. I'm sure we will see them eventually get ETOPS certification on their 7M8s.
Perhaps WN will also have some of their 73Gs ETOPS certified for routes like OAK-ITO in which the 738s may have too much capacity?
WPvsMW wrote:77H, agree on all points, but WN's interisland schedule will attract school teams, families visiting tutu, and other non-business pax who are very price sensitive.
I'm sure the following scenario is in the system in WN network planning: let HA have the rush hour interisland commuters, who have no interest in WN Rapid Rewards and want to maintain Pualani status on HA; rather, WN grows off-peak frequencies interisland, adding LIH and ITO. As interisland frequences grow, add more TPAC from CONUS. The unknown is belly cargo, esp. ex-ITO TPAC. Papaya, flowers, and other ag cargo could be important enough ex-ITO to make ITO a gateway, maybe starting 3x weekly.
I think HA should use some Dreamliners for S.Am. to N.E. Asia (odd to use the British colonial term for an area that is N.W. of Hawaii), scissored at HNL. My friends in network planning give me a WTF grimace at that idea, but HA needs to be bold, because WN is not AQ or WP. WN could not match such LH WB service.
In response to WN's entry into interisland, HA is trying to poach WN loyalists on the W. Coast... similar to WN's trying to poach interisland traffic from HA. Who will be more successful at poaching?
EK77WNH wrote:While BOS spotters are eagerly awaiting the flight tomorrow, I just get the sense it’s too much plane for the market...even less than daily. Will this be a candidate for the 787 once they get it?
superjeff wrote:...the people who are price sensitive will compare both, and may well find that Southwest is no cheaper than Hawaiian. if that's the case, they'll stick with Pualani.
laca773 wrote:Why is there so much talk about WN delaying mainland service when they don't have any 7M8s ETOPS certified? Only their 738s are. I'm sure we will see them eventually get ETOPS certification on their 7M8s.
Perhaps WN will also have some of their 73Gs ETOPS certified for routes like OAK-ITO in which the 738s may have too much capacity?
WPvsMW wrote:superjeff wrote:...the people who are price sensitive will compare both, and may well find that Southwest is no cheaper than Hawaiian. if that's the case, they'll stick with Pualani.
But now there is competition again, and all WN would have to do to get a jump is to introduce coupon books, discounted six segments or 12 segments. Locals love coupon books and coupon books would quickly make Southwest seem local.
WPvsMW wrote:superjeff wrote:...the people who are price sensitive will compare both, and may well find that Southwest is no cheaper than Hawaiian. if that's the case, they'll stick with Pualani.
But now there is competition again, and all WN would have to do to get a jump is to introduce coupon books, discounted six segments or 12 segments. Locals love coupon books and coupon books would quickly make Southwest seem local.
WPvsMW wrote:Of course... HA is the incumbent, but HA's move the LCC seating on the B712s will make WN the carrier of choice for "plus size" folks in Hawaii.
WPvsMW wrote:Of course... HA is the incumbent, but HA's move the LCC seating on the B712s will make WN the carrier of choice for "plus size" folks in Hawaii.
WPvsMW wrote:77H, agree on all points, but WN's interisland schedule will attract school teams, families visiting tutu, and other non-business pax who are very price sensitive.
I'm sure the following scenario is in the system in WN network planning: let HA have the rush hour interisland commuters, who have no interest in WN Rapid Rewards and want to maintain Pualani status on HA; rather, WN grows off-peak frequencies interisland, adding LIH and ITO. As interisland frequences grow, add more TPAC from CONUS. The unknown is belly cargo, esp. ex-ITO TPAC. Papaya, flowers, and other ag cargo could be important enough ex-ITO to make ITO a gateway, maybe starting 3x weekly.
I think HA should use some Dreamliners for S.Am. to N.E. Asia (odd to use the British colonial term for an area that is N.W. of Hawaii), scissored at HNL. My friends in network planning give me a WTF grimace at that idea, but HA needs to be bold, because WN is not AQ or WP. WN could not match such LH WB service.
In response to WN's entry into interisland, HA is trying to poach WN loyalists on the W. Coast... similar to WN's trying to poach interisland traffic from HA. Who will be more successful at poaching?
wnflyguy wrote:usxguy wrote:WN is playing it safe. Remember, the last "entrant" into the interisland market was a bit of a flop (Mokulele E170s) with lots and lots of frequency in LIH/OGG and not enough to KOA/ITO where they already had brand awareness.
my bet: WN will be increasing inter-island services a few notches in the next schedule release. I think we'll see KOA & OGG up to 6 or 7 a day before they add in LIH/ITO. The number folks are watching everything like a hawk....
I think WN will go ahead and add the final LIH,SMF and SAN service in June or July.
But with the current MAX8 grounding it will be less robust than originally planned.
I see LIH starting simple like KOA with just 4 Daily LIH-HNL flights.
SAN and SMF will be just a Daily flight to HNL with connections to OGG,LIH and KOA.
Once the MAX8 is back in service I think the November 3,2019 to January 4, 2020 Extension will see the remaining delayed 2019 summer expansion.
Will ITO be added into game on the year end release? My guess probably NOT. I'm gonna guess spring 2020.
Same can be said for anything other than the 4 original markets. The other markets like LAX,LAS,PHX and DEN pushed to summer 2020.
The big money maker I'm told for Hawaii inter island flights will be Inter Island freight contracts it's getting established.
Flyguy
77H wrote:I don’t follow? What about HA’s interisland fleet is LCC-esque? So far as I know the legroom is the same and the seats are ina fixed reclined angle. I’ve seen side by side comparisons of the old seats reclined and the new seats standard and the angle is identical.
Aptivaboy wrote:Looks like Kahalui is getting a tram from the terminal to the brand new rental car area. I'd read about this before, but never seen what the cars will look like. If you'll click on the third photo in the linked Maui News article, there they are.
http://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news ... 9-opening/
I know most people will say that "progress" is a good thing in a great many cases, but I miss the dusty, quiet old Maui. I do wonder just how much more development Hawaii can sustain. An article on Fox News from a couple of weeks ago said that development and housing-wise, the islands were near their breaking points. Time will tell...
77H wrote:WPvsMW wrote:77H, agree on all points, but WN's interisland schedule will attract school teams, families visiting tutu, and other non-business pax who are very price sensitive.
I'm sure the following scenario is in the system in WN network planning: let HA have the rush hour interisland commuters, who have no interest in WN Rapid Rewards and want to maintain Pualani status on HA; rather, WN grows off-peak frequencies interisland, adding LIH and ITO. As interisland frequences grow, add more TPAC from CONUS. The unknown is belly cargo, esp. ex-ITO TPAC. Papaya, flowers, and other ag cargo could be important enough ex-ITO to make ITO a gateway, maybe starting 3x weekly.
I think HA should use some Dreamliners for S.Am. to N.E. Asia (odd to use the British colonial term for an area that is N.W. of Hawaii), scissored at HNL. My friends in network planning give me a WTF grimace at that idea, but HA needs to be bold, because WN is not AQ or WP. WN could not match such LH WB service.
In response to WN's entry into interisland, HA is trying to poach WN loyalists on the W. Coast... similar to WN's trying to poach interisland traffic from HA. Who will be more successful at poaching?
Most ITO origin products are flown or barged over to HNL for uplift to the mainland or international destinations. Some shippers will take the Saddle road over to KOA to make use of the larger capacity offering. UA already serves ITO and doesn’t provide general cargo services.
As for the 737s cargo capabilities to/from the mainland, I can tell you all the airlines currently running 737s into Hawaii take cargo, granted, it’s not much. I’d argue WN is going to have a tough go with cargo unless they change their baggage policy to and from Hawaii. I work in Cargo locally and I’m not the least bit concerned about WN stealing market share. What I am nervous about is the probability that WN’s entry into the market will drive downgauges which inevitably impacts cargo.
77H
WPvsMW wrote:Re: cargo to mainland. Guess who WN's forwarding agent is at HNL?
https://www.swacargo.com/swacargo_com_u ... rtCode=HNL
I think that will change...
WPvsMW wrote:Re: cargo to mainland. Guess who WN's forwarding agent is at HNL?
https://www.swacargo.com/swacargo_com_u ... rtCode=HNL
I think that will change...
tphuang wrote:https://abc7news.com/travel/report-southwest-airlines-hawaii-fares-cause-price-drop/5237134/
according to this, HI fares have dropped by 17% since WN entrance and I would personally expect this to go even further once they add more capacity out of SMF/SAN.
RWA380 wrote:tphuang wrote:https://abc7news.com/travel/report-southwest-airlines-hawaii-fares-cause-price-drop/5237134/
according to this, HI fares have dropped by 17% since WN entrance and I would personally expect this to go even further once they add more capacity out of SMF/SAN.
Consider that fares had dropped sub $300 r/t before WN announced their schedule even. Then consider WN sold a chunk of tickets for stupid low fares on their announcement day. SY has entered the Hawaii market with three west coast destinations. These factors along with multiple metrics that I am not even considering is why you are getting that percentage. It's not going to stay that low, very long.
tphuang wrote:RWA380 wrote:tphuang wrote:https://abc7news.com/travel/report-southwest-airlines-hawaii-fares-cause-price-drop/5237134/
according to this, HI fares have dropped by 17% since WN entrance and I would personally expect this to go even further once they add more capacity out of SMF/SAN.
Consider that fares had dropped sub $300 r/t before WN announced their schedule even. Then consider WN sold a chunk of tickets for stupid low fares on their announcement day. SY has entered the Hawaii market with three west coast destinations. These factors along with multiple metrics that I am not even considering is why you are getting that percentage. It's not going to stay that low, very long.
well, we will see how low it will get. But for 2018 vs 2017, we saw a lot of lower yields in the west coast to HI markets just from 5 to 10% additional ASM in the market (I've posted on this before). So now that WN is looking to dump even more than that, I would be surprised if things don't stay low for a long time.
usxguy wrote:Hey RWA380,
Here's Hawaiian's "e-Coupon" booklet flights..
https://www.hawaiianairlines.com/our-se ... ravel-plan
WPvsMW wrote:I've never seen a "covered boarding ramp" at any airport in Hawaii... but really, that boils down to KOA, which has no jetways. No service to MKK or MUE that needs a ramp.
WPvsMW wrote:Makani Kai (non-member of IATA, no code) will launch HNL/HPV (Princeville, N. shore of Kauai) service on 01 May 2019 operating its 9-pax Piper Chieftain piston twins. By inference, their Cessna Grand Caravan twins can't operate from the 3,560 ft. strip at HPV with acceptable yields.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/04/ ... u-flights/
https://www.kitv.com/story/40325224/kau ... r-20-years
HPV was originally the home of Princeville Airways, which evolved into Island Air (RIP 2017), but stopped service to HPV almost 25 years ago. With the frequent closures of Prince Kuhio Hwy due to accidents, and the growth of Princeville development, the HNL/HPV service may survive.