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qf789
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JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:31 am

Welcome to the JetBlue Network Thread 2019, please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1392269&p=20970103#p20970103
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jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:59 pm

Thanks for the new thread. Happy new year everyone!

B6 has yet to announce any substantive new routes beyond Feb 2019. I know they are increasing capacity in some existing trunk leisure routes from the 3 core focus cities, but it still seems that they have some unannounced markets (especially when considering the 13 new A321s coming online this year). I would suspect we will see more announcements from FLL soon, especially with the 5 new gates coming along. Although, with DL’s encroachment at BOS, priorities may change.

Of note is B6’s withdrawal from DAB, STX, and IAD next week, along with elimination of FLL/MCO-BWI, FLL-PIT/DTW/LGB and SJU-STI, and PWM going seasonal. If these are some of B6’s least profitable markets, then hopefully we will see a positive impact once Q1 results are issued in the spring. I will also be keeping my eyes open for the finalization of the BE product, which should help B6 compete against the ULCC’s (which could be particular helpful in certain FLL markets with a NK presence).
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:36 pm

Strong rumors in late fall on another round of cuts.

The cut list was missing a few that were originally thought to be gone. Notably, ABQ and RNO.

They either changed their minds or there is more to come.

Cuba is also a money pit for them. Id look for changes (downguages) there if money becomes tight

Also, look for a LR decision with a heavy focus on JFK BOS London. Really seems to be an emphasis on that if it happens. That is a big if.

Connect the dots and more frequency seem to be the way for them to grow in 2019.

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:47 pm

Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr
 
flight152
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:55 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:26 pm

 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:42 pm

What's going on with N304JB BLUEPRINT

It flew BOS-YRQ on Dec 3, hasn't flown since.

Retired?
Repaint?

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
ajsljet45
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:40 pm

Already discussing B6’s imminent demise…sounds about right.
 
fastmover
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:49 pm

flight152 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR



Just like the trans cons right? Did you know they were some of the weakest routes until mint came along. Everyone said mint would fail and yet it didn’t and the trans cons make a bunch more money.

If they go to LHR it will be on a 321 it’s hardly a risk.
But yeah anything they do will fail, as always on airliners.net
 
TheLunchbox
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:58 pm

727LOVER wrote:
What's going on with N304JB BLUEPRINT

It flew BOS-YRQ on Dec 3, hasn't flown since.

Retired?
Repaint?



Probably heavy check.
 
TheLunchbox
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:00 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Strong rumors in late fall on another round of cuts.


Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Haven't heard any United rumors in an easy 6 months. Where are you hearing yours?
 
Planeboy17
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:20 am

flight152 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR

Thank you for your informative and fact based commentary. :shakehead:
 
B6JFKH81
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:07 am

727LOVER wrote:
What's going on with N304JB BLUEPRINT

It flew BOS-YRQ on Dec 3, hasn't flown since.

Retired?
Repaint?



E190 HMV stations:
AAR @ YRQ
Aeroman @ SAL

A320/321 HMV stations:
HAECO @ LCQ
LHT @ BQN
Aeroman @ SAL

Aircraft re-paint stations:
MAAS @ BFM
LCQ (I can't remember the name of the company, it's not HAECO, but the painting happens in Hangar 9 of the HAECO complex there)

A320 interior retrofit:
HAECO @ LCQ
Aeroman @ SAL

Aircraft delivery/pre-ops/IFE install:
HAECO @ LCQ

Hope that helps!

~B6HMV@SAL
"If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it"
 
727LOVER
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:23 am

YES...thank you !!! :bouncy:
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
flyguy84
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:43 am

Where would they even get slots for LHR, much less decent ones?
SFO
 
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iamjoeym
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:42 pm

fastmover wrote:
flight152 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR



Just like the trans cons right? Did you know they were some of the weakest routes until mint came along. Everyone said mint would fail and yet it didn’t and the trans cons make a bunch more money.

If they go to LHR it will be on a 321 it’s hardly a risk.
But yeah anything they do will fail, as always on airliners.net


The number one comment I hear while working in Mint, "do you guys do Mint internationally?" -- our customers want it. Maybe we're not ready for Europe, but if we are using 321's where's the harm in trying?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:02 pm

iamjoeym wrote:
fastmover wrote:
flight152 wrote:
What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR



Just like the trans cons right? Did you know they were some of the weakest routes until mint came along. Everyone said mint would fail and yet it didn’t and the trans cons make a bunch more money.

If they go to LHR it will be on a 321 it’s hardly a risk.
But yeah anything they do will fail, as always on airliners.net


The number one comment I hear while working in Mint, "do you guys do Mint internationally?" -- our customers want it. Maybe we're not ready for Europe, but if we are using 321's where's the harm in trying?


On the pilot and aircraft end there is a lot of money that has to go into ETOPS and ETOPs training.

It isnt as simple as starting the route like it is CUN or SXM.

If they commit to it, they want it to work because it is an investment
 
AA94
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:03 pm

jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:56 pm

What are your picks for new stations added and existing stations cut?

Cut
ABQ
RNO

Added
IND
STL
SDF
LHR
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:10 pm

How many aircraft is jetBlue planning on receiving this year and does anyone know what they plan on doing with them?
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:20 pm

Blerg wrote:
How many aircraft is jetBlue planning on receiving this year and does anyone know what they plan on doing with them?


Per their last quarterly filing to the SEC 10/20
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... ndex=10000
They were due to get 4 for the remainder of 2018 (as at 09/30) and then 13 A321neo's in 2019, in 2020 they will get another 15 of those and the first 5 of the 60 A220's to start replacing the E190's.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:25 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Blerg wrote:
How many aircraft is jetBlue planning on receiving this year and does anyone know what they plan on doing with them?


Per their last quarterly filing to the SEC 10/20
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... ndex=10000
They were due to get 4 for the remainder of 2018 (as at 09/30) and then 13 A321neo's in 2019, in 2020 they will get another 15 of those and the first 5 of the 60 A220's to start replacing the E190's.


Great, thank you for your detailed answer, much appreciated.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:33 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
Where would they even get slots for LHR, much less decent ones?


Their has already been talk in the Boston thread. B6 has already requested some potential slots at LHR.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382421&start=2450#p20965111
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:16 pm

Q3 fare numbers should be out soon. I will be posting the yield analysis as usual.

Based on the recent internal emails, my guess is that LR announcement will be made in the next 2 months. Would be interesting to see where those LHR slots come from if that's what they are going for. I personally would still like to see A220 to LCY, but A220 still needs to be ETOPS certified if i remember correctly, so that would take longer.

Even if they announce London in the next 2 months, that would still leave most of 2019 planning still.

What I would like to see them do in the 12 months. I don't think they will get through even half of this based on their past moves.

JFK - Cut RNO/ABQ/BTV, add MSP, BOG (doable with A321NEO?), PTY and GEO.

BOS - Add IND/MEM/BZN. Add frequencies on DCA/CLE/EWR/BNA/TPA/DTW/SLC/DFW.

FLL - Add SEA/GEO/PTY/MSP/MEM. Add frequencies on DCA/LAX/SFO/RDU/ATL

DCA - Cut JAX and split the frequencies for BOS & FLL

MCO - do nothing

West Coast - cut LGB-RNO/BZN/HDN
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:16 pm

Perhaps some new Mint transcons adds? JetBlue’s Facebook post a few days ago for destination Burbank had an interesting comment in which someone asked if Mint is available at BUR in which jetBlue replied “Not at the moment, Michelle. But stay tuned! It can happen. ;)
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:51 pm

The A220-300 is not certified for LCY, only the smaller version. A while ago a decision was due to be made on remedy slots to be made available at LHR on the back of the AA/BA JV on Transatlantic for up to three slot pairs a day. It's certainly looking more and more likely that LHR is the aim if the LR became reality.
The stalling on the decision - they are obviously waiting for something.
 
mia
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 pm

I’m not surprised Cuba is a money pit considering how price sensitive and baggage allowance sensitive Cuban travelers are.

Anecdotally: I think they have built a cult following among some travelers to Cuba. I have repeatedly heard friends and family say they’ll only goto Cuba on jetblue because of their reliability.
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
Q3 fare numbers should be out soon. I will be posting the yield analysis as usual.

Based on the recent internal emails, my guess is that LR announcement will be made in the next 2 months. Would be interesting to see where those LHR slots come from if that's what they are going for. I personally would still like to see A220 to LCY, but A220 still needs to be ETOPS certified if i remember correctly, so that would take longer.

Even if they announce London in the next 2 months, that would still leave most of 2019 planning still.

What I would like to see them do in the 12 months. I don't think they will get through even half of this based on their past moves.

JFK - Cut RNO/ABQ/BTV, add MSP, BOG (doable with A321NEO?), PTY and GEO.

BOS - Add IND/MEM/BZN. Add frequencies on DCA/CLE/EWR/BNA/TPA/DTW/SLC/DFW.

FLL - Add SEA/GEO/PTY/MSP/MEM. Add frequencies on DCA/LAX/SFO/RDU/ATL

DCA - Cut JAX and split the frequencies for BOS & FLL

MCO - do nothing

West Coast - cut LGB-RNO/BZN/HDN


I like the way you think. Here is what I would propose over the next 12-18 months:

JFK - Cut RNO/ABQ, add MSP, BNA, BOG, PTY and GEO (and maybe SJO). Add frequencies to ATL/PHX. Enter LHR with Mint-configured 321LR.

BOS - Add IND/MKE/BZN/ANU, and increase frequencies (beyond those already announced) to RDU/MSY/DFW/HOU/AUS/PHX, make PDX redeye year-round. Enter LHR with Mint-configured 321LR.

FLL - Add SEA (Mint), PTY/GEO/CLT/SMF/PDX (the latter 2 seasonal and/or less-than-daily), and increase frequencies (beyond those already announced) to LAX/SFO/RDU/ATL. Drop MSY/CLE (which appear to be very low yielding). Down gauge HAV flying further, and consider making the secondary Cuba markets less-than-daily.

DCA - Eventually upgauge from E190 to A320/A321 on FLL/MCO frequencies.

MCO - Drop SLC/AUS (the latter of which I expect to see yields drop once NK enters).

LGB - Drop everything other than JFK/BOS (which will eventually move to SNA once slots become awarded). It's time to cut the bleeding and frankly the utility of the remaining LGB regional flying for LA-based customers is nil.

SJU - Trim capacity to JFK/FLL/MCO/BOS further, given continued weakness in the PR market.

Drop ANC seasonal service to PDX/SEA. (Frankly I don't understand how this market exists for B6, especially since they not partake in the large cargo business to ANC.)

Add Mint to FLL-SEA (as noted above), JFK/BOS-BUR, JFK/BOS-PHX. Expand Mint on JFK-PSP further (apparently this year's rotations did quite well), and consider adding to BOS-PSP during year's season.

nine4nine wrote:
Perhaps some new Mint transcons adds? JetBlue’s Facebook post a few days ago for destination Burbank had an interesting comment in which someone asked if Mint is available at BUR in which jetBlue replied “Not at the moment, Michelle. But stay tuned! It can happen. ;)


Ha! Even though I wouldn't read too much into the FB post, I think BUR is - by far - the likeliest market to pickup Mint service. Those JFK flights mint money (no pun intended). My only question, though, is if a Mint-configured A321 can get off of BUR's short runway during inclement weather conditions.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:50 pm

flight152 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR


Mint is a good product but B6 will need to launch with decent frequency to get business travelers. AA/BA shows 12x JFK-LHR tomorrow; DL/VS is 8x. UA is 5x EWR-LHR. At BOS, AA/BA is 3x; DL/VS is 2x.

I don't know if B6 has the balls or free cash flow to start JFK-LHR at 4x daily.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:51 pm

delete duplicate
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:57 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
SJU - Trim capacity to JFK/FLL/MCO/BOS further, given continued weakness in the PR market.


While i completely understand why you would say that and it has complete logic, i hope to goodness they don't cut back SJU-BOS further, as my company has an office there and it's already pretty rough to get out and back, would I be surprised if they did? nope... i just hope they don't.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:00 am

AA94 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.



A UA takeover does not equal demise. Quite the opposite. For employees, it means more money and job security. For shareholders, a windfall.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:05 am

VS4ever wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
SJU - Trim capacity to JFK/FLL/MCO/BOS further, given continued weakness in the PR market.


While i completely understand why you would say that and it has complete logic, i hope to goodness they don't cut back SJU-BOS further, as my company has an office there and it's already pretty rough to get out and back, would I be surprised if they did? nope... i just hope they don't.


The current SJU timings are not particularly attractive to business travellers either.
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:49 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Add Mint to FLL-SEA (as noted above), JFK/BOS-BUR
nine4nine wrote:
Perhaps some new Mint transcons adds? JetBlue’s Facebook post a few days ago for destination Burbank had an interesting comment in which someone asked if Mint is available at BUR in which jetBlue replied “Not at the moment, Michelle. But stay tuned! It can happen. ;)


Ha! Even though I wouldn't read too much into the FB post, I think BUR is - by far - the likeliest market to pickup Mint service. Those JFK flights mint money (no pun intended). My only question, though, is if a Mint-configured A321 can get off of BUR's short runway during inclement weather conditions.


There is no way that any version and/or configuration of the 321 can get out of BUR! There isn’t even a gate to handle handle them at the current terminal.
 
6YBLUE
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:02 am

jfklganyc wrote:
AA94 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.



A UA takeover does not equal demise. Quite the opposite. For employees, it means more money and job security. For shareholders, a windfall.


You're either an airline fanatic who's never worked or actually know anything about the industry, or an incredibly disconnected wanna be arm chair CEO. The last takeover we saw (VX/AS), did not end well for thousands of employees. It never does. The whole point of takeovers is to eliminate a competitor or expand your turf. Employees ALWAYS get axed as you don't need the manpower that comes with. Majority non union B6 employees will not benefit from a pay raise to match UA as there is no legal binding Railway Labor law that requires them to unless they wanted and why would they. Either stay on or kick rocks.

Finally, No one at B6 is talking about a UA takeover apart from the same few pilots for the last 15yrs who are bored and have nothing better to do than spread rumors and propaganda.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:54 am

phllax wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Add Mint to FLL-SEA (as noted above), JFK/BOS-BUR


Ha! Even though I wouldn't read too much into the FB post, I think BUR is - by far - the likeliest market to pickup Mint service. Those JFK flights mint money (no pun intended). My only question, though, is if a Mint-configured A321 can get off of BUR's short runway during inclement weather conditions.


There is no way that any version and/or configuration of the 321 can get out of BUR! There isn’t even a gate to handle handle them at the current terminal.


You are incorrect. Gates A8 and A9 can (WN738 use) as can B4 (even marked for 757) and B5 (sees AS 739).
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Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:37 am

Look for more flights to ONT not BUR. I know from BZE is on the short list for new cities. You’ll see more movement after next Monday. IAD/DAB/SXM closure and the BWI/DTW/PIT flight cuts to FLL. Look for some connect the dots cities soon
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: JetBlueq Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:50 am

flight152 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Year end company employee
Video showed customer checking in online jfk-lhr

What a joke. B6 would get eaten alive on JFK-LHR

Why? They don’t get eaten alive on JFK-LAX, SFO. In fact they do quite well. I would bet their NYC corporate customers also fly to London.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:54 am

AA94 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.

Before I explain why, I want everyone to think a bit as to why united buying JetBlue would be a colossal failure. Because it would
 
Bobloblaw
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:02 am

jfklganyc wrote:
AA94 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.



A UA takeover does not equal demise. Quite the opposite. For employees, it means more money and job security. For shareholders, a windfall.

Lol.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:37 am

Jetblue goes where the incentives are the best. ONT wants B6 to expand and LGB is showing B6 the door. LAX might get cabo or PVD. B6 had plans to fly from LGB till they crushed the customs
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:08 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
AA94 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

Also, still have strong UA takeover rumors swirling around. Strong.


Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.

Before I explain why, I want everyone to think a bit as to why united buying JetBlue would be a colossal failure. Because it would


Fun game. Let me try:

If United would buy JetBlue, it would trash Mint and convert everything to United Business/F. JetBlue as a boutique, upscale experience would seize to exist. Scores of customers (including myself) would immediately bail and probably fly DL. In effect, United would just have thrown money into a black hole. I bet United shareholders would be made as hell.


So... did I win anything?
 
ryanrap1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:15 pm

Huge demand from SAT - BOS , hopefully they will add !
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:43 pm

6YBLUE wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
AA94 wrote:

Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.



A UA takeover does not equal demise. Quite the opposite. For employees, it means more money and job security. For shareholders, a windfall.


You're either an airline fanatic who's never worked or actually know anything about the industry, or an incredibly disconnected wanna be arm chair CEO. The last takeover we saw (VX/AS), did not end well for thousands of employees. It never does. The whole point of takeovers is to eliminate a competitor or expand your turf. Employees ALWAYS get axed as you don't need the manpower that comes with. Majority non union B6 employees will not benefit from a pay raise to match UA as there is no legal binding Railway Labor law that requires them to unless they wanted and why would they. Either stay on or kick rocks.

Finally, No one at B6 is talking about a UA takeover apart from the same few pilots for the last 15yrs who are bored and have nothing better to do than spread rumors and propaganda.



Your VX analogy is telling to your ignorance of basic economic principles.

VX failed to earn money for much of its existence. It was on the verge of collapse several times.

The pilots and flight attendants of VX may complain about changes...But they have been integrated into a much stronger, more stable company with higher pay.

There are workgroups that really got screwed in mergers (TWA comes to mind)

For all the merger complaints of VX and AirTran...Even the guys that were demoted to first officer...They all made more money; they all have better job security as part of a bigger company. Hindsight is 20/20 but most will look back at those mergers as good things for their careers...even if integration was unnerving.

Pan Am, Eastern...these were “demises”

A B6/UA merger would not be a demise, especially if thet got a purchase price of 40 or better per share
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2094
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:29 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
AA94 wrote:

Where have these been swirling? In your head, as usual?

Predicting B6's imminent demise by reply two has to be a new record.

Before I explain why, I want everyone to think a bit as to why united buying JetBlue would be a colossal failure. Because it would


Fun game. Let me try:

If United would buy JetBlue, it would trash Mint and convert everything to United Business/F. JetBlue as a boutique, upscale experience would seize to exist. Scores of customers (including myself) would immediately bail and probably fly DL. In effect, United would just have thrown money into a black hole. I bet United shareholders would be made as hell.


So... did I win anything?

Mint is only a small portion of B6’s ASMs. So while that probably would happen. It isn’t the most serious problem UA would have by buying an LCC (hint).
 
evank516
Posts: 1774
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:38 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Before I explain why, I want everyone to think a bit as to why united buying JetBlue would be a colossal failure. Because it would


Fun game. Let me try:

If United would buy JetBlue, it would trash Mint and convert everything to United Business/F. JetBlue as a boutique, upscale experience would seize to exist. Scores of customers (including myself) would immediately bail and probably fly DL. In effect, United would just have thrown money into a black hole. I bet United shareholders would be made as hell.


So... did I win anything?

Mint is only a small portion of B6’s ASMs. So while that probably would happen. It isn’t the most serious problem UA would have by buying an LCC (hint).


Think of all the slots they have at LGA and JFK (though UA doesn't fly to JFK). Wonder how much (if any) they'd have to divest as a result of the massive EWR hub.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2094
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:49 pm

evank516 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Fun game. Let me try:

If United would buy JetBlue, it would trash Mint and convert everything to United Business/F. JetBlue as a boutique, upscale experience would seize to exist. Scores of customers (including myself) would immediately bail and probably fly DL. In effect, United would just have thrown money into a black hole. I bet United shareholders would be made as hell.


So... did I win anything?

Mint is only a small portion of B6’s ASMs. So while that probably would happen. It isn’t the most serious problem UA would have by buying an LCC (hint).


Think of all the slots they have at LGA and JFK (though UA doesn't fly to JFK). Wonder how much (if any) they'd have to divest as a result of the massive EWR hub.

That is certainly an issue for them.

But the real problem is this. JetBlue is an LCC that has stimulated markets with low fares. United can’t make money at B6 fares and when they try to raise fares, traffic would shrink. Possibly dramatically. Yes NYC could be a regulatory problem, UA would lose badly to DL in BOS and NK plus WN would slaughter UA in price sensitive FLL. But the problem is B6 network isn’t profitable at legacy costs. Period. There is no revenue premium United could drive in most ofB6’s network by being a global carrier. The revenue synergy doesn’t exist to make up for the higher costs.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 349
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
Q3 fare numbers should be out soon. I will be posting the yield analysis as usual.

Based on the recent internal emails, my guess is that LR announcement will be made in the next 2 months. Would be interesting to see where those LHR slots come from if that's what they are going for. I personally would still like to see A220 to LCY, but A220 still needs to be ETOPS certified if i remember correctly, so that would take longer.

Even if they announce London in the next 2 months, that would still leave most of 2019 planning still.

What I would like to see them do in the 12 months. I don't think they will get through even half of this based on their past moves.

JFK - Cut RNO/ABQ/BTV, add MSP, BOG (doable with A321NEO?), PTY and GEO.

BOS - Add IND/MEM/BZN. Add frequencies on DCA/CLE/EWR/BNA/TPA/DTW/SLC/DFW.

FLL - Add SEA/GEO/PTY/MSP/MEM. Add frequencies on DCA/LAX/SFO/RDU/ATL

DCA - Cut JAX and split the frequencies for BOS & FLL

MCO - do nothing

West Coast - cut LGB-RNO/BZN/HDN

FLL - GEO would be a surefire way to lose money. There isn't a large Guyanese community in So. Fla and there are already three carriers serving MIA-GEO (AA nonstop, BW via POS, and PY which continues onto Suriname). BW and PY only make it work because GEO isn't the sole destination for their flights and AA only started service in November due to the increased business travel to/from GEO due to recent oil discoveries. AA has a much larger hub in MIA than B6 has at FLL and can leverage that to make those flights work. AA also has the advantage of being better able to attract business traffic. There'd be very little room for B6 to make FLL-GEO work. JFK-GEO however is another kettle of fish entirely and that is a route B6 should definitely enter. Loads of VFR traffic with very few options.
 
impilot
Posts: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:07 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Mint is only a small portion of B6’s ASMs. So while that probably would happen. It isn’t the most serious problem UA would have by buying an LCC (hint).


Think of all the slots they have at LGA and JFK (though UA doesn't fly to JFK). Wonder how much (if any) they'd have to divest as a result of the massive EWR hub.

That is certainly an issue for them.

But the real problem is this. JetBlue is an LCC that has stimulated markets with low fares. United can’t make money at B6 fares and when they try to raise fares, traffic would shrink. Possibly dramatically. Yes NYC could be a regulatory problem, UA would lose badly to DL in BOS and NK plus WN would slaughter UA in price sensitive FLL. But the problem is B6 network isn’t profitable at legacy costs. Period. There is no revenue premium United could drive in most ofB6’s network by being a global carrier. The revenue synergy doesn’t exist to make up for the higher costs.


Does jetblue really have lower fares? Most of the times I’ve compared on overlapping markets with legacies, JetBlue isn’t any cheaper. Sometimes it’s more expensive. Sometimes it’s a little cheaper. Just depends. But generally people don’t fly jetblue because it’s cheaper from point A to point B than brand X, at least not anecdotally from my experience. I would say that JetBlue’s status as an LCC isn’t necessarily due to low ticket costs, but lower cost structure and higher aircraft utilization than the legacy carriers. So I’m not sure I buy the theory that price sensitive flyers would avoid UA post hypothetical merger on routes currently flown by B6 due to fare increases, bc I believe that’s a false premise.
 
Galvan316
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2010 5:43 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:25 pm

How well does B6 do at ORD?

Not that anyone cares, but i just booked ORD-FLL for 5/4
ORD and MDW is where youll find Me!

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