As mentioned on LGB thread, there is an update here https://lbpost.com/news/southwest-delta ... h-airport/
Unexpected imo, DL has asked for 4 of the 10 slots that got released. I can't really understand why. I would imagine 2 will be used for ATL given their launching of ATL-ONT/BUR with 2 flights each. I guess they could also add more to SLC or add 2 flights to SEA. The former could make B6's operation there a little harder. The latter imo would pose minimal threat given B6 managed to run a much stronger AS off LGB-SEA.
I think B6 would be very happy about WN only getting only 6 of the 10 slots, which means they'd have to either cut SJC again or cut back on other flights. At this point, it's certainly possible for LGB to be a break even or slightly profitable type of station. Whether or not B6 wants to keep this kind of presence is a different story.
also, couple of more articles on B6 to Europehttps://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... mpetition/https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-low- ... 1556888401
I think it's clear that BA is concerned about how B6's entrance might affect the yields on JFK/BOS-LHR. The former is their most important route. If you've taken a BA flight in J, you'd see their hard product is pretty terrible for international. They've updated it for A350, but it's not exactly a great product compared to what even their JV partner AA offers. I would expect B6's hard product to beat it. Of course, BA will sell its customers on the lounge access + schedule flexibility. I personally don't see how BA can keep selling its J seat at current fare levels when B6 comes into the market.
The WSJ article, if you have access, also brings up a point I've been thinking about. A premium configured A321LR will probably look like 28 J + 112 Y/Y+ seat or something like that. On route like BOS-LON, where they would be able to compete with legacy JVs in schedule right away, they will have a much smaller y cabin to fill up. For BA, A380 has 111 F/J, 55 W and 254 Y seats, B777 has 70 F/J, 44 W and 185 Y seats. DL A332 has 34J + 200 Y/Y+ seats. VS A333 has 33 J, 48 W and 185 Y. DI 787-9 has 35 W and 309 Y.
I'm seeing R/T on W at around $1500 to $1800, Y at about $800 and J at $8000+.
First of all, I think W yield just tank considerably here. If B6 is selling R/T at $2000 as promo fare and $2500 to $3500 closer in, there is no way a much inferior W product can keep pricing at $1500-1800 and expect to sell. Assuming DI is still around by then, they will be gone from BOS-LON market pretty quickly when the few higher yielding seat they have available can't sell at all. For Y/Y+, B6 would have anywhere from 35% to 60% seat to sell compared to competitors. Even accounting for all the BA connections at LHR, there is simply no way B6 doesn't generate higher yield with its 112 seat than other carriers. Just to put things in perspective, B6 gets 20% higher yield than DL on a lot of those short RJ market out of Boston when it has 2 or 3 times the number of y seats to sell. Even if it sells J seat at a discount to legacies, it will still get comparable yields.
Compare A321LR to B777. Let's say BA sells Y seat at 10% discount to B6, W seat at 60% premium to Y and F/J seat at 20% premium to B6 and assuming B6 sells J seat at 4x Y seat yield.
If we standardize with 100 as yield on B6 Y
Then 140 seat A321 for B6 would be (112 * 100 + 28 * 400) / 140 = 160 in average yield.
B77W for BA would be (70 * 400 * 1.2 + 185 * 90 + 44 * 90 * 1.6) / 299 = 189 in average yield
Let's say DL sells y seat at 15% discount to B6 and J seat at 20% premium to B6, since it has even more Y seat to sell per flight than BA B777.
A332 would be (34 * 400 * 1.2 + 200 * 85) / 234 = 142 in average yield
And I think I'm using pretty conservative model here, since I'm assuming BA can generate F/J at 20% premium to B6 even with 3 times the number of J seats to sell and assuming DL can generate 20% premium even with 20% more J seat to sell. There is no mint market out of BOS where B6 has such pricing weakness.
In terms of total operating cost, a 77W is said to cost twice as much to operate as a B739 for UA. A321NEO is probably close to or a little less in total operating cost compared B739 given the 15% improvement in fuel cost. Given that BA B77W has a little more than twice the number of seat as my proposed A321LR config here, the CASM is also quite comparable. That's before we factor in the general lower cost of B6 from not having all the lounges and services for premium members and alliances/partnerships.