tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:24 am

WeatherPilot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
more routes...


JetBlue is dropping FLL-SYR at the end of April. I'm wondering what those numbers look like for B6 to dump it.


Do they run it the full year though?
for the full year 2018
I see 248 flights and that counts both ways, so just 124 R/T flights.
Capacity Board LF PerFlight NSFare Yield PRASM Cost YieldAdj
24950 20710 83.01% 101 218.65 181.49 0.1516 1.2 151.7

In case you wonder what yield adj and cost are. That's just adjusting for the fact this route is using E90, which has higher cost.

From what I can see, for the time it ran, it was running at roughly domestic system average in margin, so it was probably a profitable route.

If they stop running it, it will probably be because they think it might be helping performance on BOS-SYR, BUF-FLL. I don't know. Maybe it will get reloaded later. Maybe they need the E90 for something else.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:43 am

tphuang wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
more routes...


JetBlue is dropping FLL-SYR at the end of April. I'm wondering what those numbers look like for B6 to dump it.


Do they run it the full year though?
for the full year 2018
I see 248 flights and that counts both ways, so just 124 R/T flights.
Capacity Board LF PerFlight NSFare Yield PRASM Cost YieldAdj
24950 20710 83.01% 101 218.65 181.49 0.1516 1.2 151.7

In case you wonder what yield adj and cost are. That's just adjusting for the fact this route is using E90, which has higher cost.

From what I can see, for the time it ran, it was running at roughly domestic system average in margin, so it was probably a profitable route.

If they stop running it, it will probably be because they think it might be helping performance on BOS-SYR, BUF-FLL. I don't know. Maybe it will get reloaded later. Maybe they need the E90 for something else.


No, they do not. It's a seasonal from December through April.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:56 am

WeatherPilot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
more routes...


JetBlue is dropping FLL-SYR at the end of April. I'm wondering what those numbers look like for B6 to dump it.


It’s a seasonal route, it runs Dec/Jan-April
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:38 am

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:
tphuang wrote:
more routes...


JetBlue is dropping FLL-SYR at the end of April. I'm wondering what those numbers look like for B6 to dump it.


It’s a seasonal route, it runs Dec/Jan-April


I know it’s seasonal. JetBlue is not bringing back the route next winter. After April 30th the route is done, finished, gone...
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:05 am

WeatherPilot wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:

JetBlue is dropping FLL-SYR at the end of April. I'm wondering what those numbers look like for B6 to dump it.


It’s a seasonal route, it runs Dec/Jan-April


I know it’s seasonal. JetBlue is not bringing back the route next winter. After April 30th the route is done, finished, gone...


Oh, well.. that’s very unfortunate .
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:15 am

I know it would be another blow to AA, but why doesn't B6 launch JFK-EGE and BOS-EGE during the winter season? Both would be ideal Airbus A220-300 routes when they come in.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:46 am

I would be happy if they added seasonal JFK-BZN. Seems like a lot of places they could try, but they are pretty conservative with new stations.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 5:20 pm

As mentioned on LGB thread, there is an update here https://lbpost.com/news/southwest-delta ... h-airport/

Unexpected imo, DL has asked for 4 of the 10 slots that got released. I can't really understand why. I would imagine 2 will be used for ATL given their launching of ATL-ONT/BUR with 2 flights each. I guess they could also add more to SLC or add 2 flights to SEA. The former could make B6's operation there a little harder. The latter imo would pose minimal threat given B6 managed to run a much stronger AS off LGB-SEA.

I think B6 would be very happy about WN only getting only 6 of the 10 slots, which means they'd have to either cut SJC again or cut back on other flights. At this point, it's certainly possible for LGB to be a break even or slightly profitable type of station. Whether or not B6 wants to keep this kind of presence is a different story.

also, couple of more articles on B6 to Europe
https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... mpetition/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-low- ... 1556888401

I think it's clear that BA is concerned about how B6's entrance might affect the yields on JFK/BOS-LHR. The former is their most important route. If you've taken a BA flight in J, you'd see their hard product is pretty terrible for international. They've updated it for A350, but it's not exactly a great product compared to what even their JV partner AA offers. I would expect B6's hard product to beat it. Of course, BA will sell its customers on the lounge access + schedule flexibility. I personally don't see how BA can keep selling its J seat at current fare levels when B6 comes into the market.

The WSJ article, if you have access, also brings up a point I've been thinking about. A premium configured A321LR will probably look like 28 J + 112 Y/Y+ seat or something like that. On route like BOS-LON, where they would be able to compete with legacy JVs in schedule right away, they will have a much smaller y cabin to fill up. For BA, A380 has 111 F/J, 55 W and 254 Y seats, B777 has 70 F/J, 44 W and 185 Y seats. DL A332 has 34J + 200 Y/Y+ seats. VS A333 has 33 J, 48 W and 185 Y. DI 787-9 has 35 W and 309 Y.

I'm seeing R/T on W at around $1500 to $1800, Y at about $800 and J at $8000+.

First of all, I think W yield just tank considerably here. If B6 is selling R/T at $2000 as promo fare and $2500 to $3500 closer in, there is no way a much inferior W product can keep pricing at $1500-1800 and expect to sell. Assuming DI is still around by then, they will be gone from BOS-LON market pretty quickly when the few higher yielding seat they have available can't sell at all. For Y/Y+, B6 would have anywhere from 35% to 60% seat to sell compared to competitors. Even accounting for all the BA connections at LHR, there is simply no way B6 doesn't generate higher yield with its 112 seat than other carriers. Just to put things in perspective, B6 gets 20% higher yield than DL on a lot of those short RJ market out of Boston when it has 2 or 3 times the number of y seats to sell. Even if it sells J seat at a discount to legacies, it will still get comparable yields.

Compare A321LR to B777. Let's say BA sells Y seat at 10% discount to B6, W seat at 60% premium to Y and F/J seat at 20% premium to B6 and assuming B6 sells J seat at 4x Y seat yield.

If we standardize with 100 as yield on B6 Y
Then 140 seat A321 for B6 would be (112 * 100 + 28 * 400) / 140 = 160 in average yield.
B77W for BA would be (70 * 400 * 1.2 + 185 * 90 + 44 * 90 * 1.6) / 299 = 189 in average yield

Let's say DL sells y seat at 15% discount to B6 and J seat at 20% premium to B6, since it has even more Y seat to sell per flight than BA B777.
A332 would be (34 * 400 * 1.2 + 200 * 85) / 234 = 142 in average yield

And I think I'm using pretty conservative model here, since I'm assuming BA can generate F/J at 20% premium to B6 even with 3 times the number of J seats to sell and assuming DL can generate 20% premium even with 20% more J seat to sell. There is no mint market out of BOS where B6 has such pricing weakness.

In terms of total operating cost, a 77W is said to cost twice as much to operate as a B739 for UA. A321NEO is probably close to or a little less in total operating cost compared B739 given the 15% improvement in fuel cost. Given that BA B77W has a little more than twice the number of seat as my proposed A321LR config here, the CASM is also quite comparable. That's before we factor in the general lower cost of B6 from not having all the lounges and services for premium members and alliances/partnerships.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 6:40 pm

Would you not expect BA - and to a smaller extend DL - swap a big bird for a 787 or A220? No way BA will keep flying those gas guzzlers while taking a revenue hit.

If you repeatedly create a sensation or feeling of ripping people off, the moment that customers have an option to travel in a similar experience, they’ll leave,” Cruz said.


Spilling the beans, eh?
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 7:23 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I know it would be another blow to AA, but why doesn't B6 launch JFK-EGE and BOS-EGE during the winter season? Both would be ideal Airbus A220-300 routes when they come in.


Because AA has a contract with Vail Resorts.

That's not to say B6 can't compete.
a.
 
B6BOSfan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 3:03 am

MAH4546 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
I know it would be another blow to AA, but why doesn't B6 launch JFK-EGE and BOS-EGE during the winter season? Both would be ideal Airbus A220-300 routes when they come in.


Because AA has a contract with Vail Resorts.

That's not to say B6 can't compete.


Didn't realize Vail Resorts had a deal in place with AA. Vail would be smart to come up with a deal with JetBlue in the coming years. Vail is purchasing Northeast resorts now, with the goal of getting skiers to visit their western resorts. With JetBlue hubs in NYC and Boston and flights already in place to Denver, Salt Lake and Reno -- they already have service in place.

As an avid skier, if JetBlue could offer service into Eagle, I'd use it in a heartbeat. I used their service from BOS to HDN this winter. It was fantastic. I believe that service was subsidized by Steamboat and the Ikon Pass. With how hard Ikon is trying to compete with Vail, I wonder if negotiations are happening now for other destinations. JetBlue offered LGB to BZN -- I'm assuming to help service Big Sky resort and Yellowstone. I'd have used the service if offered from BOS.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 4:16 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Didn't realize Vail Resorts had a deal in place with AA.


With that in mind, I would not be surprised if CLT and PHL are near the top of the wish list for EGE/Vail Resorts. US did operate CLT-EGE as well as PHL-EGE in the past, and AA's PHX-EGE service has clearly been more of a success than recent attempts by anyone other than AA and UA to gain traction at EGE (even from major hubs like DL's MSP and AC's YYZ). I don't think the airport's recent track record bodes well for getting B6. Something like JAC or even ASE (assuming the A220s can get in and out of there once it's upgraded) seems like a far more likely addition for B6 IMO.

B6BOSfan wrote:
Vail would be smart to come up with a deal with JetBlue in the coming years. Vail is purchasing Northeast resorts now, with the goal of getting skiers to visit their western resorts. With JetBlue hubs in NYC and Boston and flights already in place to Denver, Salt Lake and Reno -- they already have service in place.


Keep in mind that DEN and SLC are major urban area airports serving millions of local residents in addition to tourists such as skiers and snowboarders. Even so, DEN has never been much of a success for B6 whilst SLC may be larger than otherwise desired in order to offer travel benefits to B6's work from home reservation agents. RNO has long been rumored to be on the chopping block, but still serves a metropolitan area of over 500,000 people (about 10x as many residents as Eagle County). Never mind the fact that EGE is highly seasonal and operationally challenging...

All that said, EGE could be an interesting opportunity for WN. WN is extremely strong in many key markets for Eagle County/Vail Resorts - such as Chicago, Dallas and Houston - that have been served during the summer season for years now. Other WN strongholds like LAS and OAK could be attraction destinations for Vail Valley residents (as has been the case with PHX). What ever happened to the rumors of G4 adding OAK-EGE? Would AS ever consider EGE?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
joeblow10
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 4:23 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
B6BOSfan wrote:
Didn't realize Vail Resorts had a deal in place with AA.


With that in mind, I would not be surprised if CLT and PHL are near the top of the wish list for EGE/Vail Resorts. US did operate CLT-EGE as well as PHL-EGE in the past, and AA's PHX-EGE service has clearly been more of a success than recent attempts by anyone other than AA and UA to gain traction at EGE (even from major hubs like DL's MSP and AC's YYZ). I don't think the airport's recent track record bodes well for getting B6. Something like JAC or even ASE (assuming the A220s can get in and out of there once it's upgraded) seems like a far more likely addition for B6 IMO.

B6BOSfan wrote:
Vail would be smart to come up with a deal with JetBlue in the coming years. Vail is purchasing Northeast resorts now, with the goal of getting skiers to visit their western resorts. With JetBlue hubs in NYC and Boston and flights already in place to Denver, Salt Lake and Reno -- they already have service in place.


Keep in mind that DEN and SLC are major urban area airports serving millions of local residents in addition to tourists such as skiers and snowboarders. Even so, DEN has never been much of a success for B6 whilst SLC may be larger than otherwise desired in order to offer travel benefits to B6's work from home reservation agents. RNO has long been rumored to be on the chopping block, but still serves a metropolitan area of over 500,000 people (about 10x as many residents as Eagle County). Never mind the fact that EGE is highly seasonal and operationally challenging...

All that said, EGE could be an interesting opportunity for WN. WN is extremely strong in many key markets for Eagle County/Vail Resorts - such as Chicago, Dallas and Houston - that have been served during the summer season for years now. Other WN strongholds like LAS and OAK could be attraction destinations for Vail Valley residents (as has been the case with PHX). What ever happened to the rumors of G4 adding OAK-EGE? Would AS ever consider EGE?


EGE is no doubt a subsidy driven airport - I doubt anyone would fly in with nearly as many destinations or as much frequency if it weren’t for the deals with the resorts.

EGE and ASE are probably a bit different from the rest of the mountain sky airports, but from all my travels in and out of HDN, there are weekends where most planes are half empty. I doubt WN would ever consider those types of airports, not to mention the other guys make a ton of money off of ski/baggage fees.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat May 11, 2019 10:45 pm

Looks like B6 pulled the plug on BOS-PSP. I don't see it in the schedule anymore, not even as a seasonal flight.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 12:41 am

Bos-psp should be back next year season is over for psp. Just started ACK & ANC.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 1:18 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like B6 pulled the plug on BOS-PSP. I don't see it in the schedule anymore, not even as a seasonal flight.

they started this year in February I think. And they haven't loaded Feb 2020 schedule in yet.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 2:23 am

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like B6 pulled the plug on BOS-PSP. I don't see it in the schedule anymore, not even as a seasonal flight.

they started this year in February I think. And they haven't loaded Feb 2020 schedule in yet.


Would be a strange short season then: February - April??
 
peak86
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 2:24 am

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like B6 pulled the plug on BOS-PSP. I don't see it in the schedule anymore, not even as a seasonal flight.

they started this year in February I think. And they haven't loaded Feb 2020 schedule in yet.


Would be a strange short season then: February - April??


Pretty typical for places like PSP and TUS - very short season, sure, but Jan/Feb-Apr are the peak peak seasons for snowbirds in Arizona and California
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 2:27 am

peak86 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
they started this year in February I think. And they haven't loaded Feb 2020 schedule in yet.


Would be a strange short season then: February - April??


Pretty typical for places like PSP and TUS - very short season, sure, but Jan/Feb-Apr are the peak peak seasons for snowbirds in Arizona and California


Sure, but then why is JFK-PSP already loaded in the schedule from October 2019?
 
peak86
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 2:33 am

Dieuwer wrote:
peak86 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Would be a strange short season then: February - April??


Pretty typical for places like PSP and TUS - very short season, sure, but Jan/Feb-Apr are the peak peak seasons for snowbirds in Arizona and California


Sure, but then why is JFK-PSP already loaded in the schedule from October 2019?


Interesting, had not seen that. I'm guessing either they don't need double the capacity into PSP (if we consider BOS/JFK together) from Oct-Jan. That, or as you suggested, we won't see it return once Feb is loaded.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun May 12, 2019 12:44 pm

peak86 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
peak86 wrote:

Pretty typical for places like PSP and TUS - very short season, sure, but Jan/Feb-Apr are the peak peak seasons for snowbirds in Arizona and California


Sure, but then why is JFK-PSP already loaded in the schedule from October 2019?


Interesting, had not seen that. I'm guessing either they don't need double the capacity into PSP (if we consider BOS/JFK together) from Oct-Jan. That, or as you suggested, we won't see it return once Feb is loaded.


I doubt we will see BOS-PSP return next season. From what I could gather loads were very light this past season. JFK-PSP, on the other hand, seems to be a much stronger market. B6 even threw in some 321’s (all-core and Mint) this past season.

I think we will know once B6 opens up its schedule from Jan-Apr 2020.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 1:27 am

From OAG thread this week, some actual adds

B6 ACK-HPN SEP 0.1>0.7[0]
B6 BDL-PBI SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]
B6 BOS-PDX SEP 0.2>1.1[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.3]
B6 BOS-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

Looks like ACK-HPN is getting quite the run. I know they don't have many slots at HPN and are short on aircraft in peak summer season, but maybe it's possible for them to try to do ACK-MVY or a second ACK-HPN flight at the expense of TPA/FLL/MCO flight next summer. I'd imagine it would have to be higher yielding than Florida.

Good to see BDL getting some love. One way for them to capture more of the North Westchester, CT to PBI traffic. Given where BDL is, it would seem to me they should try some more P2P stuff out there.

And for BOS, PDX is getting extended, which is good to see. SAN is going 3x with the 3rd flight being A320 vs mint is an interesting choice. Maybe they are seeing 2 mint flights already grabbing all the premium demand. I keep wondering how they managed to run more mint flights in peak summer season. Are there spare frames available to be moved to FLL-LAX?
 
B6BOSfan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 4:48 am

tphuang wrote:
From OAG thread this week, some actual adds

And for BOS, PDX is getting extended, which is good to see.


Some scheduling tweaks on that BOS/PDX run for Sept/Oct. The former redeye from Portland to Boston is now a 7am flight, arriving in Boston at 3pm. The flight from Logan to Portland is an 8:20pm departure.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 12:44 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From OAG thread this week, some actual adds

And for BOS, PDX is getting extended, which is good to see.


Some scheduling tweaks on that BOS/PDX run for Sept/Oct. The former redeye from Portland to Boston is now a 7am flight, arriving in Boston at 3pm. The flight from Logan to Portland is an 8:20pm departure.


interesting, looks like they are definitely trying harder here to offer competitive schedule for bos-pdx.

Checking on a day in late September I see
jfk-pdx
8:35 to 11:55 pm
9:46 to 6:00 am

bos-pdx
8:20 to 11:40
6:52 to 3:07 pm

lgb to pdx
6:39 to 8:56
6:00 to 8:18

And there are now 2 RON at PDX

so now the LGB flights fly to JFK. Not sure if that will help OTP on JFK-PDX.
 
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flymco753
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 1:55 pm

So with DL's recent adds and upgauges from BOS-FL ...how much longer until they start DTW-MCO to dent DL's share like DL is doing at BOS?
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 2:14 pm

flymco753 wrote:
So with DL's recent adds and upgauges from BOS-FL ...how much longer until they start DTW-MCO to dent DL's share like DL is doing at BOS?

DL even with their adds are at about same in market share as NK on BOS-FLL/PBI/MCO/RSW. Outside of MCO, these are all markets B6 will crush them on. I see more A321s on them as the most obvious change they would do. Even if B6 does choose to respond more here, they would mostly likely get killed by NK on DTW-MCO. Most likely, they will just add one of BOS-IND/CMH/CVG/, which are basically the only remaining profitable DL markets out of BOS. Or they could do JFK-MSP. DTW-MCO seems to be pretty low on their list. Their goal should be to make that 4th DTW-BOS flight successful first.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 2:23 pm

Does JetBlue have desires to expand into Canada in a greater way from their New York Hub.

Seems like a natural fit?
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flymco753
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 2:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
So with DL's recent adds and upgauges from BOS-FL ...how much longer until they start DTW-MCO to dent DL's share like DL is doing at BOS?

DL even with their adds are at about same in market share as NK on BOS-FLL/PBI/MCO/RSW. Outside of MCO, these are all markets B6 will crush them on. I see more A321s on them as the most obvious change they would do. Even if B6 does choose to respond more here, they would mostly likely get killed by NK on DTW-MCO. Most likely, they will just add one of BOS-IND/CMH/CVG/, which are basically the only remaining profitable DL markets out of BOS. Or they could do JFK-MSP. DTW-MCO seems to be pretty low on their list. Their goal should be to make that 4th DTW-BOS flight successful first.
Perhaps a JFK would be a higher priority too, QSI favors it well.
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 13, 2019 4:11 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does JetBlue have desires to expand into Canada in a greater way from their New York Hub.

Seems like a natural fit?

Seems to me that JFK-YVR would be the easiest due to lack of AC presence. YYZ and YUL would be hard due to lack of slots at LGA. Although if they start flying to Canada out of BOS, they could do like a non-business schedule on JFK-YYZ.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 3:32 am

tphuang wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does JetBlue have desires to expand into Canada in a greater way from their New York Hub.

Seems like a natural fit?

Seems to me that JFK-YVR would be the easiest due to lack of AC presence. YYZ and YUL would be hard due to lack of slots at LGA. Although if they start flying to Canada out of BOS, they could do like a non-business schedule on JFK-YYZ.


You have to keep in mind that CX as a fifth freedom service flies 4-class B77Ws on JFK-YVR in a premium-heavy configuration. Air Canada flies to EWR, but that is also on a wide-body (mix of B788 and B789 equipment). There isn't a lack of seats on the route...right now it's more than 570 daily seats between NYC and YVR. If B6 tries JFK-YVR, it would have to be on a Mint-configured plane, as CX pressure forced AC to do a huge up-gauge from an A319 to a B788 and now the B788/B789 mix.

The other problem for B6 might be lack of connections on the YVR end. The CX flight to YVR is timed to pick up traffic bound for the morning bank at HKG with its stopover, and its inbound flight is timed for the morning bank of AA flights at JFK.

As for what route I feel B6 should try, even though American has announced it, is JFK-GEO. Currently only BW serves this route as a 5th freedom service, and Eastern (2D) was just denied for this route because of prior problems. JFK-GEO could be done on an A320, and it would have better timings than BW's service, which arrives into JFK near midnight with a departure after 1 AM. For JFK-GEO, B6 could schedule a departure around 3 PM (arriving around 9 PM at GEO) and departing 11:30 PM to get back to JFK around 5:30 AM. If it works out for B6, it could be up-gauged to a 200-seat A321.
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 5:16 am

Does anyone know how BUR-BOS has been doing since it was re-timed?
 
impilot
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 5:19 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does JetBlue have desires to expand into Canada in a greater way from their New York Hub.

Seems like a natural fit?

Seems to me that JFK-YVR would be the easiest due to lack of AC presence. YYZ and YUL would be hard due to lack of slots at LGA. Although if they start flying to Canada out of BOS, they could do like a non-business schedule on JFK-YYZ.


You have to keep in mind that CX as a fifth freedom service flies 4-class B77Ws on JFK-YVR in a premium-heavy configuration. Air Canada flies to EWR, but that is also on a wide-body (mix of B788 and B789 equipment). There isn't a lack of seats on the route...right now it's more than 570 daily seats between NYC and YVR. If B6 tries JFK-YVR, it would have to be on a Mint-configured plane, as CX pressure forced AC to do a huge up-gauge from an A319 to a B788 and now the B788/B789 mix.

The other problem for B6 might be lack of connections on the YVR end. The CX flight to YVR is timed to pick up traffic bound for the morning bank at HKG with its stopover, and its inbound flight is timed for the morning bank of AA flights at JFK.

As for what route I feel B6 should try, even though American has announced it, is JFK-GEO. Currently only BW serves this route as a 5th freedom service, and Eastern (2D) was just denied for this route because of prior problems. JFK-GEO could be done on an A320, and it would have better timings than BW's service, which arrives into JFK near midnight with a departure after 1 AM. For JFK-GEO, B6 could schedule a departure around 3 PM (arriving around 9 PM at GEO) and departing 11:30 PM to get back to JFK around 5:30 AM. If it works out for B6, it could be up-gauged to a 200-seat A321.

Jetblue announced JFK-GEO before American announced it...did you not see JetBlue’s announcement a little over a month ago? Same time they announced LON. And GYE.
 
cpl22586
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 6:00 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Does JetBlue have desires to expand into Canada in a greater way from their New York Hub.

Seems like a natural fit?


As of right now they have no plans to expand into Canada. Also since JFK is slot constrained they are trying to use their existing slots on well performing and established routes.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25677
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 6:20 pm

impilot wrote:
Jetblue announced JFK-GEO before American announced it...did you not see JetBlue’s announcement a little over a month ago? Same time they announced LON. And GYE.


JetBlue has not announced Georgetown.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3002
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 6:51 pm

November LF from International markets. I've missed a few months back sep/oct numbers are just ugly.
Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
JFKHAV
B6 59 4384 6100 71.87% 103.4
EWRHAV
YX 51 3310 3876 85.40% 76
BOSHAV
B6 6 532 924 57.58% 154

They downgauged for JFK-HAV to E90s mostly and it's still not great LF. Neither are BOS-HAV thus far
FLLHAV
WN 181 21409 29947 71.49% 165.5
B6 160 11310 21712 52.09% 135.7
MIAHAV
AA 300 38065 48120 79.10% 160.4
DL 102 12178 16012 76.06% 157
MCOHAV
B6 60 4603 6300 73.06% 105
TPAHAV
WN 60 8787 10500 83.69% 175
FLLHOG
B6 60 5691 9000 63.23% 150
FLLSNU
B6 60 4064 6000 67.73% 100
FLLCMW
B6 60 5671 9000 63.01% 150
downgauges all the way around in HAV markets including FLL-HAV and the LFs are still horrendous. This Cuban experiment needs to end yesterday.

FLLMEX
B6 120 12946 18000 71.92% 150
MIAMEX
AA 230 24069 30944 77.78% 134.5
AM 136 17246 20392 84.57% 149.9
4O 98 10401 14700 70.76% 150
Y4 60 5372 10276 52.28% 171.3
MCOMEX
4O 60 6828 9672 70.60% 161.2
B6 120 13794 18000 76.63% 150
AM 62 8174 9848 83.00% 158.8
Y4 44 5230 7786 67.17% 177
5D 58 4648 5722 81.23% 98.7
JFKMEX
DL 56 9664 10676 90.52% 190.6
AM 239 36282 43290 83.81% 181.1
VB 60 8448 10800 78.22% 180
4O 217 25353 32550 77.89% 150
B6 60 6832 9000 75.91% 150
Y4 46 6498 8263 78.64% 179.6
BOSMEX
B6 59 4877 8874 54.96% 150.4
AM 57 7196 9120 78.90% 160
Not terrible numbers on FLL/MCO-MEX. In line with competitors given the usage of A320s here. JFK-MEX look to have good LF to start off. BOS is off to a rough start, although I would presume AM departure will make things a lot easier.

JFKSTI
B6 240 37728 47736 79.03% 198.9
DL 180 26383 32380 81.48% 179.9
JFKSDQ
B6 239 36857 47750 77.19% 199.8
DL 179 27704 32201 86.03% 179.9
JFKPUJ
DL 68 11164 12052 92.63% 177.2
B6 129 18714 22450 83.36% 174
JFKPOP
B6 60 8052 9000 89.47% 150
JFKLRM
B6 16 1584 2400 66.00% 150
EWRSTI
B6 60 7262 9000 80.69% 150
UA 60 9375 10064 93.15% 167.7
EWRSDQ
B6 59 5843 8850 66.02% 150
NK 43 4669 6235 74.88% 145
UA 120 17167 19972 85.96% 166.4
FLLSTI
B6 59 3572 8874 40.25% 150.4
NK 34 3842 7245 53.03% 213.1
FLLSDQ
B6 60 7057 9000 78.41% 150
NK 60 9675 13680 70.72% 228
Rough one on EWR-SDQ after NK entrance there. JFK markets perform about as one would expect in November. FLL-STI is pretty brutal so far, but it is a new route.

FLLBOG
B6 58 6769 8700 77.80% 150
NK 59 9360 10738 87.17% 182
AV 60 7710 9006 85.61% 150.1
FLLMDE
B6 60 7716 9000 85.73% 150
NK 57 9479 10466 90.57% 183.6
FLLCTG
B6 60 6002 9000 66.69% 150
NK 34 5553 6188 89.74% 182
FLLLIM
B6 60 7555 9000 83.94% 150
NK 8 994 1160 85.69% 145
FLLSJO
WN 60 7773 9092 85.49% 151.5
B6 60 7681 9000 85.34% 150
NK 58 11385 13224 86.09% 228
FLLPAP
AA 120 12730 19260 66.10% 160.5
B6 120 12413 18024 68.87% 150.2
NK 52 5852 9556 61.24% 183.8
FLLNAS
WN 120 14421 17160 84.04% 143
B6 238 19645 24200 81.18% 101.7
UP 220 16905 23360 72.37% 106.2
FLLMBJ
BW 26 3003 3900 77.00% 150
WN 120 14831 17352 85.47% 144.6
B6 60 8017 9000 89.08% 150
NK 56 7964 10210 78.00% 182.3
FLLPUJ
WN 60 6837 8580 79.69% 143
B6 60 7840 9000 87.11% 150
NK 6 690 870 79.31% 145
FLLGCM
WN 60 6825 8580 79.55% 143
B6 60 4479 6000 74.65% 100
FLLCUN
WN 148 10991 21164 51.93% 143
B6 60 7105 9000 78.94% 150
NK 60 10417 13680 76.15% 228
among the FLL routes, BOG/CTG looks a little weak. GCM doesn't look bad for a new service. WN continues to struggle mightily on FLL-CUN. FLL-PAP is also pretty weak, but should benefit from AA departure.

JFKKIN
B6 124 18734 24518 76.41% 197.7
BW 60 6266 9000 69.62% 150
OJ 13 1885 2634 71.56% 202.6
JFKMBJ
DL 60 8046 9592 83.88% 159.9
BW 60 5593 9000 62.14% 150
B6 120 16342 21018 77.75% 175.2
JFKPAP
AA 60 6234 9617 64.82% 160.3
B6 59 8011 11554 69.34% 195.8
JFKAUA
DL 60 8342 9859 84.61% 164.3
B6 123 16232 21471 75.60% 174.6
JFKCUR
B6 24 2870 3600 79.72% 150
JFKBGI
B6 128 16710 21780 76.72% 170.2
JFKPLS
B6 68 8871 10218 86.82% 150.3
JFKBDA
AA 56 6699 8972 74.67% 160.2
B6 60 5971 9000 66.34% 150
DL 60 6541 7917 82.62% 131.9
JFK-BDA has looked pretty weak all year. Other than that, PAP has also shown some pretty low LFs and should benefit from AA departure. One thing I do notice is that B6 consistently has lower LF than DL on the JFK to Caribbean markets. Not sure if it's due to using 200 seaters or just too much capacity in some of these markets.
 
impilot
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 7:20 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
impilot wrote:
Jetblue announced JFK-GEO before American announced it...did you not see JetBlue’s announcement a little over a month ago? Same time they announced LON. And GYE.


JetBlue has not announced Georgetown.

Guess that depends on what you consider “announced.”

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1420605&p=21287001&hilit=Guyana#p21287001

At their all hands party announcing LON, they announced their intention to fly to GYE and GEO.

A few days later, AA announced the same thing (JFK-GEO) with an earlier start date.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 484
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 8:05 pm

phllax wrote:
Does anyone know how BUR-BOS has been doing since it was re-timed?



I have been wondering the same. TPhuang will probably answer that when he sees the post.

I wish they’d start FLL-BUR so I can avoid LAX on those runs now that FLL-LGB is gone.
717 727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 742 748 752 753 762 763 772 773 DC9 MD80/88/90 DC10 319 320 321 332 333 CS100 CRJ200 Q400 E175 E190 ERJ145 EMB120
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 6:31 pm

Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.

Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
FLLPHX
WN 117 17583 20123 87.38% 172
B6 29 3287 4611 71.29% 159
BOSROC
B6 96 7950 9600 82.81% 100
PT 119 5318 5950 89.38% 50
BOSSYR
B6 109 6582 10900 60.39% 100
PT 38 1641 1900 86.37% 50
JFKORH
B6 108 4419 10918 40.47% 101.1
JFKPSP
AS 9 1322 1583 83.51% 175.9
B6 114 14039 18824 74.58% 165.1
BOSPSP
B6 18 1408 2862 49.20% 159
LGBHDN
B6 34 2341 5244 44.64% 154.2
BOSHDN
B6 32 3324 4944 67.23% 154.5
FLLHDN
B6 16 1531 2472 61.93% 154.5
LGBBZN
B6 34 3669 5244 69.97% 154.2
JFKONT
AS 2 188 334 56.29% 167
B6 115 14038 17786 78.93% 154.7
BOSBUR
B6 105 7844 16626 47.18% 158.3
JFKBUR
B6 206 26744 31782 84.15% 154.3
BOSLGB
B6 194 22272 29951 74.36% 154.4
JFKLGB
B6 213 26714 32891 81.22% 154.4

Things to observe here is that BOS-PSP looks pretty bad. And same with BOS-BUR. I'm not surprised if PSP doesn't come back. It seems to even effect JFK-PSP LF.

FLL-PHX looks okay for a first month, especially if the seat count is overstated. BOS-ROC doesn't look back for an initial run. JFK-ORH remains a struggle.

I read on FT that HDN isn't currently coming back for 2020. The LF shows a continued struggles, although hard to say with without fare numbers. I would've liked to see them add BZN instead of HDN from east coast. Not sure if that will go away too.

When I see their numbers on routes like BOS-HDN/PSP, it just gets met frustrated. Instead of adding routes with actual demand in new markets, they try these seasonal routes without a lot of demand and seem likely to give up after one season. At some point they need to just add some new cities that's underserved from BOS rather than adding service to existing cities that maybe able to support daily JFK service, but just doesn't have enough demand for BOS.
 
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Dieuwer
Posts: 1357
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 6:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
Things to observe here is that BOS-PSP looks pretty bad. And same with BOS-BUR. I'm not surprised if PSP doesn't come back. It seems to even effect JFK-PSP LF.


Bad luck perhaps? When I was at the inaugural BOS-PSP flight back in February, the plane was not packed but not completely empty either. However, I think the issue was the horrific weather in Palm Springs. We landed just after the area was soaked by a severe rain storm. Several roads were washed away and access to PS was severely restricted. Several popular local attraction were closed for an indefinite amount of time.

So, who would want to go to a chilly, washed-away destination if you can bask in the sun in the Caribbean?
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 2122
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 6:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.


The 162 seat 320's are really only just coming on stream in ok numbers, so they wouldn't affect the numbers quite yet, the bigger difference is B6 now have 63 321's on fleet, now a portion of those are going to be Mint of course with 159, but the rest are all core 200 seaters, so if they get used on the runs you mention, that would bring the average seat count up pretty quickly.

This is a week old list from the refurb thread where 20 out of 130 are now complete with planned average of 5 per month coming on stream. Current ratio of 320's to 321's are approx 2:1, but in reality it's more like 3 or 4 to 1 once you take the mint aircraft out
viewtopic.php?p=21323355#p21355857
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3002
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 8:50 pm

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.


The 162 seat 320's are really only just coming on stream in ok numbers, so they wouldn't affect the numbers quite yet, the bigger difference is B6 now have 63 321's on fleet, now a portion of those are going to be Mint of course with 159, but the rest are all core 200 seaters, so if they get used on the runs you mention, that would bring the average seat count up pretty quickly.

This is a week old list from the refurb thread where 20 out of 130 are now complete with planned average of 5 per month coming on stream. Current ratio of 320's to 321's are approx 2:1, but in reality it's more like 3 or 4 to 1 once you take the mint aircraft out
viewtopic.php?p=21323355#p21355857


Sorry, what I was trying to say is that I believe these routes are served by A320 vast majority of time and only a small fraction of them in Jan/Feb (probably 10% of fleet) was 162 seats, so I'm inclined to think that the average seat count should be closer to 150 rather than in the 155 to 160 range. So it is possible the seats are overstated (they overstated in the early months during 2018 with 154 seats on A320 in some cases). But I will do a more thorough analysis once we get the Q1 fare data.

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Things to observe here is that BOS-PSP looks pretty bad. And same with BOS-BUR. I'm not surprised if PSP doesn't come back. It seems to even effect JFK-PSP LF.


Bad luck perhaps? When I was at the inaugural BOS-PSP flight back in February, the plane was not packed but not completely empty either. However, I think the issue was the horrific weather in Palm Springs. We landed just after the area was soaked by a severe rain storm. Several roads were washed away and access to PS was severely restricted. Several popular local attraction were closed for an indefinite amount of time.

So, who would want to go to a chilly, washed-away destination if you can bask in the sun in the Caribbean?

seems like this kind of route does need a lot of good promotion and some luck to do well. If everyone got rained on in their first trip there, they might not want to go back.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 10:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Bad luck perhaps? When I was at the inaugural BOS-PSP flight back in February, the plane was not packed but not completely empty either. However, I think the issue was the horrific weather in Palm Springs. We landed just after the area was soaked by a severe rain storm. Several roads were washed away and access to PS was severely restricted. Several popular local attraction were closed for an indefinite amount of time.

So, who would want to go to a chilly, washed-away destination if you can bask in the sun in the Caribbean?


seems like this kind of route does need a lot of good promotion and some luck to do well. If everyone got rained on in their first trip there, they might not want to go back.


On the way back (I stayed over the long Valentines Day/Presidents Day weekend) I talked to a couple of folks who were sitting in the same row and everyone was very disappointed and did not want to go back.
Personally, for just a weekend I think it is not worth the 6 hours trek. I might be back for a longer period of time, but then outside the raining season. And even then I could just as easily fly into LA and drive.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 33
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:44 am

tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.

Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
LGBHDN
B6 34 2341 5244 44.64% 154.2
BOSHDN
B6 32 3324 4944 67.23% 154.5
FLLHDN
B6 16 1531 2472 61.93% 154.5

I read on FT that HDN isn't currently coming back for 2020. The LF shows a continued struggles, although hard to say with without fare numbers. I would've liked to see them add BZN instead of HDN from east coast. Not sure if that will go away too.

When I see their numbers on routes like BOS-HDN/PSP, it just gets met frustrated. Instead of adding routes with actual demand in new markets, they try these seasonal routes without a lot of demand and seem likely to give up after one season. At some point they need to just add some new cities that's underserved from BOS rather than adding service to existing cities that maybe able to support daily JFK service, but just doesn't have enough demand for BOS.


Those Hayden flights were definitely 150 seat planes. I flew from BOS out to Steamboat one round-trip in March, and the plane was probably 2/3 full. I was hoping the BOS route had a chance of hanging on. If the route IS dead for 2020, that's not surprising but also sad. I feel like you do need a bit of annual consistency to draw an audience on a route. As you said, adding service to existing cities that I can already access from JFK is dumb.
 
greenair727
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 2:12 am

Do you foresee B6 announcing JFK-CLE anytime soon?
 
ROCDLFAN
Posts: 242
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:47 am

tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.

Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
FLLPHX
WN 117 17583 20123 87.38% 172
B6 29 3287 4611 71.29% 159
BOSROC
B6 96 7950 9600 82.81% 100
PT 119 5318 5950 89.38% 50
BOSSYR
B6 109 6582 10900 60.39% 100
PT 38 1641 1900 86.37% 50
JFKORH
B6 108 4419 10918 40.47% 101.1
JFKPSP
AS 9 1322 1583 83.51% 175.9
B6 114 14039 18824 74.58% 165.1
BOSPSP
B6 18 1408 2862 49.20% 159
LGBHDN
B6 34 2341 5244 44.64% 154.2
BOSHDN
B6 32 3324 4944 67.23% 154.5
FLLHDN
B6 16 1531 2472 61.93% 154.5
LGBBZN
B6 34 3669 5244 69.97% 154.2
JFKONT
AS 2 188 334 56.29% 167
B6 115 14038 17786 78.93% 154.7
BOSBUR
B6 105 7844 16626 47.18% 158.3
JFKBUR
B6 206 26744 31782 84.15% 154.3
BOSLGB
B6 194 22272 29951 74.36% 154.4
JFKLGB
B6 213 26714 32891 81.22% 154.4

Things to observe here is that BOS-PSP looks pretty bad. And same with BOS-BUR. I'm not surprised if PSP doesn't come back. It seems to even effect JFK-PSP LF.

FLL-PHX looks okay for a first month, especially if the seat count is overstated. BOS-ROC doesn't look back for an initial run. JFK-ORH remains a struggle.

I read on FT that HDN isn't currently coming back for 2020. The LF shows a continued struggles, although hard to say with without fare numbers. I would've liked to see them add BZN instead of HDN from east coast. Not sure if that will go away too.

When I see their numbers on routes like BOS-HDN/PSP, it just gets met frustrated. Instead of adding routes with actual demand in new markets, they try these seasonal routes without a lot of demand and seem likely to give up after one season. At some point they need to just add some new cities that's underserved from BOS rather than adding service to existing cities that maybe able to support daily JFK service, but just doesn't have enough demand for BOS.


Do you by any chance have the reverse ROC-BOS? Especially compared to SYR, the ROC route seems to be doing well for B6 from BOS, something I’m happy to see. It’ll be really interesting to see what March data looks like, as that’s when the introductory fares stopped running. Still though, it was about half way through February as well that they started to run out, so the yield should be significantly better in Feb than Jan (ironically, pax counts I believe are 1.5% higher in Feb than Jan too.)
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:55 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.

Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
LGBHDN
B6 34 2341 5244 44.64% 154.2
BOSHDN
B6 32 3324 4944 67.23% 154.5
FLLHDN
B6 16 1531 2472 61.93% 154.5

I read on FT that HDN isn't currently coming back for 2020. The LF shows a continued struggles, although hard to say with without fare numbers. I would've liked to see them add BZN instead of HDN from east coast. Not sure if that will go away too.

When I see their numbers on routes like BOS-HDN/PSP, it just gets met frustrated. Instead of adding routes with actual demand in new markets, they try these seasonal routes without a lot of demand and seem likely to give up after one season. At some point they need to just add some new cities that's underserved from BOS rather than adding service to existing cities that maybe able to support daily JFK service, but just doesn't have enough demand for BOS.


Those Hayden flights were definitely 150 seat planes. I flew from BOS out to Steamboat one round-trip in March, and the plane was probably 2/3 full. I was hoping the BOS route had a chance of hanging on. If the route IS dead for 2020, that's not surprising but also sad. I feel like you do need a bit of annual consistency to draw an audience on a route. As you said, adding service to existing cities that I can already access from JFK is dumb.


Perhaps we have to admit that the US market is saturated at the moment and there aren't any more underserved cities. Simply looking at the JetBlue route map gives me the impression that every potential route is already flow. Maybe add more departures on existing routes, but that's it.
The only prime market left that is not served by JetBlue is Europe. And we all know how long that has been in the works...
 
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adamh8297
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:58 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some LF from Jan/Feb. I have question about some of these numbers since all of them show more than 150 passengers per flight by a good margin. Sometimes, JetBlue does overestimate capacity on A320s. Given that I don't know which ones are reconfigured, I can't make djustments. So beware that these numbers could be under stating their LF.

Carrier Flights Boarded Seats LF SeatPerFlight
LGBHDN
B6 34 2341 5244 44.64% 154.2
BOSHDN
B6 32 3324 4944 67.23% 154.5
FLLHDN
B6 16 1531 2472 61.93% 154.5

I read on FT that HDN isn't currently coming back for 2020. The LF shows a continued struggles, although hard to say with without fare numbers. I would've liked to see them add BZN instead of HDN from east coast. Not sure if that will go away too.

When I see their numbers on routes like BOS-HDN/PSP, it just gets met frustrated. Instead of adding routes with actual demand in new markets, they try these seasonal routes without a lot of demand and seem likely to give up after one season. At some point they need to just add some new cities that's underserved from BOS rather than adding service to existing cities that maybe able to support daily JFK service, but just doesn't have enough demand for BOS.


Those Hayden flights were definitely 150 seat planes. I flew from BOS out to Steamboat one round-trip in March, and the plane was probably 2/3 full. I was hoping the BOS route had a chance of hanging on. If the route IS dead for 2020, that's not surprising but also sad. I feel like you do need a bit of annual consistency to draw an audience on a route. As you said, adding service to existing cities that I can already access from JFK is dumb.


If the White/Green Mountains didn't exist then HDN would do better from BOS. I think its time for one of the following from BOS (ANU/CUR/GND) as a seasonal weekly in the winter. Caribbean seasonals simply do better.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3052
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:59 pm

Dieuwer wrote:

Perhaps we have to admit that the US market is saturated at the moment and there aren't any more underserved cities.


SAT/MSN/SDF would disagree with you.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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Dieuwer
Posts: 1357
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:06 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Perhaps we have to admit that the US market is saturated at the moment and there aren't any more underserved cities.


SAT/MSN/SDF would disagree with you.


If true, then what's the wait for. Those towns have been around for a while ;)
 
tphuang
Posts: 3002
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:08 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Perhaps we have to admit that the US market is saturated at the moment and there aren't any more underserved cities.


SAT/MSN/SDF would disagree with you.

I don't see them serving SAT anytime soon. But I think BOS-SDF/MEM/MSN are all opportunities B6 should be embracing rather than adding PSP/HDN which seem to have minimal seasonal demand. It drives crazy that they have not added any of them yet.

greenair727 wrote:
Do you foresee B6 announcing JFK-CLE anytime soon?

I think CLE is a little too close to NYC to be served profitably from JFK. Unless they get a lot more slots or slots go away (which could happen), I don't see CLE as very high on their list to utilize JFK slots.

ROCDLFAN wrote:

Do you by any chance have the reverse ROC-BOS? Especially compared to SYR, the ROC route seems to be doing well for B6 from BOS, something I’m happy to see. It’ll be really interesting to see what March data looks like, as that’s when the introductory fares stopped running. Still though, it was about half way through February as well that they started to run out, so the yield should be significantly better in Feb than Jan (ironically, pax counts I believe are 1.5% higher in Feb than Jan too.)

Those numbers include both directions. ROC i think in general seems to have more demand to BOS vs SYR. Long term, I think they are trying to run AA off SYR/ROC. At which point, they can add a second flight to ROC. 1 E90 is already way too much capacity for BOS-SYR.

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