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Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:51 pm

DY is going to strengthen ties with B6 in 2020. It will be come codeshare and fly into B6 terminals BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:52 pm

They announced Interline, but this is all a rouse, and setting up for Europe 2021
 
BlueBaller
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Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:00 pm

Blueknows wrote:
They announced Interline, but this is all a rouse, and setting up for Europe 2021


:eyepopping: Bro they shortened school busses for cats like you.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:41 pm

Really dude
It’s all happening right now .No one is paying attention

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460612/
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:24 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Really dude
It’s all happening right now .No one is paying attention

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460612/


Rouse
/rouz/
1. Bring out of sleep, awaken
"she was roused from a deep sleep by a hand on her shoulder"

I believe the word you were looking for is:

Ruse
/ro͞oz,ro͞os/
1. An action intended to deceive someone; a trick.
"Eleanor tried to think of a ruse to get Paul out of the house"
 
wv399
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:29 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:


I know JetBlue has agreements with other airlines, but I don’t know (other than HA and Cape Air) which partner airlines can check bags and ticket passengers all the way thru from an original JetBlue destination to a non-JetBlue destination (and vise-versa)


JetBlue interlines with multiple carriers for ticketing and baggage: EK, EY, QR, EI, FI, SU, TP, and AD are just a few of their partners.
 
unusualattitude
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:39 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Really dude
It’s all happening right now .No one is paying attention

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460612/


I’m pretty sure you are 0 for never on JetBlue rumors, despite your screen name.
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:06 am

Not surprised about MEX. While on face value it seems a harsh move, the details have everything going against success right now. Thank Trump, the Mexico LCC's, DL & AM tie-up and down business demand (trump), little leisure demand

Smart move Blue
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:09 am

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460612/
Wow what coincidence, pushed till 2020/2021....wonder who will take those two slots?
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:29 am

Blueknows wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/norwegian-puts-up-slots-to-delay-bond-repayment-460612/
Wow what coincidence, pushed till 2020/2021....wonder who will take those two slots?

What are you talking about? Norwegian is using those slots as collateral to extend the time at which they’d have to repay the bond. If anything, it makes it less likely that those slots would be available to anyone else.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:34 am

adamh8297 wrote:
B6 needs to take that plane on BOS-MEX and put it on BOS-SAT.


or SDF or MEM or any other number of underserved places out of BOS. We will see what happens here. Seems like they can't do any major adds without subtracting elsewhere given the plane shortages.

I don't think this is the end of the cuts. There is still plenty of fat in their network. I'm looking at you, Cuba.

Cuba and MEX were also the lowest performing points of their Latin American network.
 
avi8
Posts: 1181
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:35 pm

Well, doesn’t seem like they’ll be venturing to new Latin American cities anytime soon.
avi8
 
avi8
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:59 pm

Well, doesn’t seem like they’ll be venturing to new Latin American cities anytime soon.
avi8
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
B6 needs to take that plane on BOS-MEX and put it on BOS-SAT.


or SDF or MEM or any other number of underserved places out of BOS. We will see what happens here. Seems like they can't do any major adds without subtracting elsewhere given the plane shortages.

I don't think this is the end of the cuts. There is still plenty of fat in their network. I'm looking at you, Cuba.

Cuba and MEX were also the lowest performing points of their Latin American network.


BOS-SAT has a problem, that seems to plague SAT as a whole. There isn't a lot of high-yielding demand from SAT to the East Coast, I wouldn't be surprised if a surprising amount of travel on BOS-SAT is military/us gov't traffic which isn't very lucrative due to heavily discounted fares.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:49 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/norwegian-puts-up-slots-to-delay-bond-repayment-460612/
Wow what coincidence, pushed till 2020/2021....wonder who will take those two slots?

What are you talking about? Norwegian is using those slots as collateral to extend the time at which they’d have to repay the bond. If anything, it makes it less likely that those slots would be available to anyone else.


Why do you think they let them extended them out? With a company that looks like it’s going to go outta business every other day? They know they are going to sell slots or lease them to B6 when they get AC. That’s the reason they are approving this. They know how much they are worth. It’s like someone giving you winning numbers for lottery. At the end of the day you know you’ll get your money
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:12 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BOS-SAT has a problem, that seems to plague SAT as a whole. There isn't a lot of high-yielding demand from SAT to the East Coast, I wouldn't be surprised if a surprising amount of travel on BOS-SAT is military/us gov't traffic which isn't very lucrative due to heavily discounted fares.


The PDEW for BOS-SAT was 149 passengers per day in Q4 2018, and there is likely enough O&D on BOS-SAT for DL, B6, or WN to add BOS-SAT nonstop service.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:20 pm

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BOS-SAT has a problem, that seems to plague SAT as a whole. There isn't a lot of high-yielding demand from SAT to the East Coast, I wouldn't be surprised if a surprising amount of travel on BOS-SAT is military/us gov't traffic which isn't very lucrative due to heavily discounted fares.


The PDEW for BOS-SAT was 149 passengers per day in Q4 2018, and there is likely enough O&D on BOS-SAT for DL, B6, or WN to add BOS-SAT nonstop service.


You looked over the entire crux of what I just wrote
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:08 pm

From OAG thread this week

B6 BOS-FLL DEC 8>7[6]
B6 BOS-JFK DEC 6>5[6]
B6 BOS-MCO FEB 8>9[7] MAR 8>9[7] APR 8>9[7]
B6 BOS-RIC DEC 4>3[3]
B6 EWR-MCO DEC 7>8[7]
B6 EWR-STI DEC 1.0>1.8[1.0]
I get the reputation damage PUJ has received, but why drop just for Spring Break? Isn't that super-peak?
*B6 FLL-PUJ FEB 0.8>0.2[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-SFO JAN 2.0>2[2]
B6 JFK-STI DEC 7>6[5]

big one here is FLL-PUJ going away for 3 months. Even with the DR struggles, a little surprising they took it out completely. JFK/BOS both have already seen quite a bit of cuts. A lot of last minute changes in December.

NK BOS-BWI DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 0.4>0.2[2]

I'm sure Jetblue is very happy here. I took a look at month ahead and it looks like NK is gone here from 2x daily. Doesn't sound like a lot on a route that's 6x B6 and 9x WN, but those 2 flights carry 170 passengers per flight vs B6 E90s. So NK carried close to 60% # of passengers B6 did and I would imagine mostly O&D. So I think yield on this route for both B6/WN should improve next week. This was a hugely bloody market for years.

DL BOS-JAX JAN 2>1.8[1.7] FEB 2>1.8[1.8]
DL BOS-PBI JAN 1.9>1.1[1.0] FEB 1.8>1.4[1.0]
DL BOS-RSW JAN 1.9>1.2[1.0]

A little relief here in the Florida markets for B6 also. Didn't check exactly how much DL originally loaded, but FLL is now down to 1x daily starting May and PBI/RSW is only 2x daily for only the very peak season from late February to early April vs most of the winter time. JAX is also down to 2x daily for Jan/Feb. They are still I think 3x daily for rest of the year. B6 has upgauged to just 2x A320s.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:55 pm

Also, looks like FLL-SFO is a real increase for January. I see it as getting an additional A321 From Jan 9th to Feb 10th xSaturdays.

This is another one month add at FLL (they also did this for CHS/MSY for just November) that doesn't seem to be followed up elsewhere. The only one that got made permanent is FLL-JAX to 4x daily.
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
NK BOS-BWI DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 0.4>0.2[2]

I'm sure Jetblue is very happy here. I took a look at month ahead and it looks like NK is gone here from 2x daily. Doesn't sound like a lot on a route that's 6x B6 and 9x WN, but those 2 flights carry 170 passengers per flight vs B6 E90s. So NK carried close to 60% # of passengers B6 did and I would imagine mostly O&D. So I think yield on this route for both B6/WN should improve next week. This was a hugely bloody market for years.


In addition to NK dropping BOS-BWI nonstop service, there will also probably be more connecting passengers on WN BOS-BWI nonstop flights with WN having already dropped BOS-IND nonstop service and WN dropping BOS-ATL/AUS/DAL/MCI/MKE nonstop service in January 2020.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:12 pm

Alright, the earnings for Q3 are out this morning.

Some good stuff like CASM-ex was up minimally over last year. Some stuff we already know like RASM was down 0.9% over last year. The margin was probably a little better than expected on the strength of minimal CASM growth.

Capacity growth was higher than expected and the full year is now expected to grow 6 to 7%. I would imagine most of this is from A320 restyling efforts + the longer stage length per flight.

Domestic RASM up 3% in Q3, which is pretty good given the longer stage length and A320 restyling. I assume that is a sign BOS was strong this summer. Latin America/Caribbean was weak this quarter, particularly out of FLL. Although I'd guess JFK took some lumps too. That's probably why we saw those reductions out of FLL. After numerous quarters of strong domestic/international performance out of FLL, this was a tough quarter. I would imagine PR/DR/Bahamas probably all dramatically underperformed.

The forecast for Q4 on RASM front is not good. -3.5 to -0.5%. CASM-ex looks better at -1 to 1%. All in all, another tough quarter ahead.

Based on their comments, I would infer the part of weaker domestic performance signal that the added capacity in Q4 by B6/DL at BOS is going to really going to tank yield in certain markets.

They do forecast start of fare option 2.0 in Q4.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:31 pm

A few more notes from today's earning call.

Latin American market had a lot of RASM pressure due to additional capacities (i think they said high single digit drop in RASM), but remains above system average in margins. The expect the headwinds in markets like PR/DR to continue into Q4. Big part of the -3.5 to -0.5 range. PUJ is killing them.

Fare options 2.0 is launching in Q4. They expect it to grow quite quickly as a late comer.

Ancillary/loyalty continues to grow faster than RASM. It's up 17% YoY to $33.60 per customer. Co-branded protfolio more than double in last 2 years. So solid growth here from very low base compared to competitors.

2020 growth reduced by 2 points due to A321NEO delays.

Again stated A220 has 30% lower direct operating cost per seam than E90. Which as I said before, makes it close to A321 in CASM.

They are happy with transcon market.

Claim to be more than 120 daily departures from FLL. I have not seen that yet. Broward County approved $500 million capital improvement project to add gate capacity and customer experience. Looks like more growth here for B6 still.

Again domestic RASM grew at 3.0%, which is higher than industry. For Q4, expecting drops in domestic yield due to capacity growth ticking up. Now, they refused to elaborate further and used NEO as an execuse here. But I'm pretty sure the Q3 RASM growth and Q4 capacity growth is mostly about BOS. With their adds to combat DL in Q4, don't want to get wall street alarmed about this situation. Again, Q2/Q3 saw flat to negative growth in BOS, which really helped yield domestically there, but Q4 will see a huge bump in capacity.

Very pleased with CASM-ex efforts. lowered 2019 guidance to 0.5 to 1% which is really low cost growth. Expect 2020 casm-ex to be -2.5 to -0.5. A lot of that imo is longer stage length and higher capacity aircraft, which also adversely affect RASM.

Really good balance hseet. Under 28% in debt to capital ratio. More buybacks authorized of up to $800 million. Pretty large reduction in floating shares.

Talked about cutting MEX to protect margins. Believe will see low single digit RASM growth. Claims that Cuba still earns their way into the network with E90. Can't believe they are continuing this charade.

MEX capacity redeployed to Northeast to Florida/Caribbean and daylight transcon. Huge disappointment here for me. No middle of America markets? No EWR adds?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:59 pm

No Profit Sharing for employees so far this year.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:52 pm

Wall Street definitely liked what they heard: JBLU up 7.3% by the close.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:07 am

jfklganyc wrote:
No Profit Sharing for employees so far this year.


My rough WAG says we need ~$250m pre-tax profit for 4Q just to see $1 of PS... :banghead:
 
Abeam79
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 2:14 am

MEX capacity redeployed to Northeast to Florida/Caribbean and daylight transcon. Huge disappointment here for me. No middle of America markets? No EWR adds?[/quote]
i believe EWR is "northeast" and part of that growth.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:17 pm

Alright, now for the most depressing data of them all, LGB!

Route Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight# FlightsLF Yield
LGBSFO 354 B6 43021 113.09 113.09 000.00 100.00% 150.0 362 79.23% 089.60
LGBOAK 353 B6 44720 109.99 109.99 000.00 100.00% 150.0 366 81.46% 089.60
LGBOAK 353 WN 90923 105.83 105.69 257.15 99.91% 149.5 719 84.59% 089.41
LGBSJC 324 B6 28221 115.33 115.33 000.00 100.00% 150.0 358 52.55% 060.61
LGBSJC 324 WN 43313 090.11 089.90 146.05 99.62% 143.2 595 50.85% 045.71

First for the Bay area numbers. SFO/OAK numbers are up from Q1 but lower than Q4. Probably close to breaking even. They were never the problems. SJC is a huge bloodbath. WN's entry has now lowered LF to the 50s and fares are never good to begin with. Not sure how long this is sustainable. Yield is same as Q1.

LGBSMF 387 B6 38779 100.91 100.91 000.00 100.00% 150.0 363 71.22% 071.87
LGBSMF 387 WN 86527 101.05 100.95 174.82 99.86% 148.0 724 80.75% 081.52
Another bloodbath. After an ok Q4, Q1 and Q2 have both looked terrible. Q2 is a little better than Q1.

LGBLAS 231 B6 69524 096.82 096.82 000.00 100.00% 150.7 548 84.16% 081.49
LGBLAS 231 WN 60841 084.87 084.87 000.00 100.00% 143.9 549 77.03% 065.38
One of the better performers out of LGB. I think they are at least breaking even here. Can't say the same about WN. If they do chose to cut back one of the other flights, they can certainly shift one of the slots here.

LGBSEA 965 B6 41333 149.24 149.24 000.00 100.00% 150.0 356 77.40% 115.51
LGBPDX 846 B6 24947 137.08 137.08 000.00 100.00% 150.0 181 91.89% 125.96
This continues a trend from Q1 where PDX gets higher yield than SEA despite shorter distance. Might be due to the greater number of flights to SEA. SEA is getting good fares number, but LF is lacking for Q2. Yield is up on both routes over Q1. PDX is probably close to system average in performance with this yield level. SEA is definitely losing money.

LGBRNO 402 B6 21332 123.51 123.51 000.00 100.00% 150.0 181 78.57% 097.04
Again, RNO numbers are not bad. This is probably making money

LGBSLC 588 B6 67800 113.70 113.70 000.00 100.00% 150.0 519 87.09% 099.02
LGBSLC 588 OO 50084 139.03 139.03 000.00 100.00% 75.9 725 91.04% 126.57
Yield here is down vs Q1 and Q4. Probably close to breaking even here after being profitable in Q1. It's not clear to me what DL sees in LGB. This is clearly a money losing route for them.

LGBAUS 1226 B6 25073 162.26 162.26 000.00 100.00% 150.0 182 91.84% 149.02
This is good numbers. Yield is up vs Q1 and Q4. Definitely profitable at this level.

LGBBZN 904 B6 3411 124.97 124.97 000.00 100.00% 150.0 28 81.21% 101.49
Not sure why this is still being operated next year. If they want to keep BZN around, I'd say Sat only JFK/BOS-BZN makes more sense. I'd imagine a large part of this is the subsidies.
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
No middle of America markets?


There are some markets such as CVG, MCI, IND, MKE, and ORF that currently have nonstop service out of BOS on DL but not on B6.

What is the route performance like on BOS-CVG, BOS-MCI, BOS-IND, BOS-MKE, and BOS-ORF nonstop service? Can B6 make BOS-CVG, BOS-MCI, BOS-IND, BOS-MKE, and BOS-ORF nonstop service work?
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3309
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
A few more notes from today's earning call.

Latin American market had a lot of RASM pressure due to additional capacities (i think they said high single digit drop in RASM), but remains above system average in margins. The expect the headwinds in markets like PR/DR to continue into Q4. Big part of the -3.5 to -0.5 range. PUJ is killing them.

Fare options 2.0 is launching in Q4. They expect it to grow quite quickly as a late comer.

Ancillary/loyalty continues to grow faster than RASM. It's up 17% YoY to $33.60 per customer. Co-branded protfolio more than double in last 2 years. So solid growth here from very low base compared to competitors.

2020 growth reduced by 2 points due to A321NEO delays.

Again stated A220 has 30% lower direct operating cost per seam than E90. Which as I said before, makes it close to A321 in CASM.

They are happy with transcon market.

Claim to be more than 120 daily departures from FLL. I have not seen that yet. Broward County approved $500 million capital improvement project to add gate capacity and customer experience. Looks like more growth here for B6 still.

Again domestic RASM grew at 3.0%, which is higher than industry. For Q4, expecting drops in domestic yield due to capacity growth ticking up. Now, they refused to elaborate further and used NEO as an execuse here. But I'm pretty sure the Q3 RASM growth and Q4 capacity growth is mostly about BOS. With their adds to combat DL in Q4, don't want to get wall street alarmed about this situation. Again, Q2/Q3 saw flat to negative growth in BOS, which really helped yield domestically there, but Q4 will see a huge bump in capacity.

Very pleased with CASM-ex efforts. lowered 2019 guidance to 0.5 to 1% which is really low cost growth. Expect 2020 casm-ex to be -2.5 to -0.5. A lot of that imo is longer stage length and higher capacity aircraft, which also adversely affect RASM.

Really good balance hseet. Under 28% in debt to capital ratio. More buybacks authorized of up to $800 million. Pretty large reduction in floating shares.

Talked about cutting MEX to protect margins. Believe will see low single digit RASM growth. Claims that Cuba still earns their way into the network with E90. Can't believe they are continuing this charade.

MEX capacity redeployed to Northeast to Florida/Caribbean and daylight transcon. Huge disappointment here for me. No middle of America markets? No EWR adds?


Thanks for the notes here. A couple other things that I picked up:

-They are downplaying the Norwegian interline and stressed that there are 50 other airlines who have the same exact agreement
-No expectation or plan for further 321neo delays
-Mint continues to outperform system RASM
-TATL/London is on schedule, and any ETOPS/Customs ramp-up costs are included in 2020 guidance
-Network reallocation is causing significant margin benefit (no wonder they are closing MEX)
-Improvements in D0/A14 compared to prior year

It looks like Wall Street was happy. B6 stock closed +7%!

tphuang wrote:
Alright, now for the most depressing data of them all, LGB!

Route Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight# FlightsLF Yield
LGBSFO 354 B6 43021 113.09 113.09 000.00 100.00% 150.0 362 79.23% 089.60
LGBOAK 353 B6 44720 109.99 109.99 000.00 100.00% 150.0 366 81.46% 089.60
LGBOAK 353 WN 90923 105.83 105.69 257.15 99.91% 149.5 719 84.59% 089.41
LGBSJC 324 B6 28221 115.33 115.33 000.00 100.00% 150.0 358 52.55% 060.61
LGBSJC 324 WN 43313 090.11 089.90 146.05 99.62% 143.2 595 50.85% 045.71

First for the Bay area numbers. SFO/OAK numbers are up from Q1 but lower than Q4. Probably close to breaking even. They were never the problems. SJC is a huge bloodbath. WN's entry has now lowered LF to the 50s and fares are never good to begin with. Not sure how long this is sustainable. Yield is same as Q1.

LGBSMF 387 B6 38779 100.91 100.91 000.00 100.00% 150.0 363 71.22% 071.87
LGBSMF 387 WN 86527 101.05 100.95 174.82 99.86% 148.0 724 80.75% 081.52
Another bloodbath. After an ok Q4, Q1 and Q2 have both looked terrible. Q2 is a little better than Q1.

LGBLAS 231 B6 69524 096.82 096.82 000.00 100.00% 150.7 548 84.16% 081.49
LGBLAS 231 WN 60841 084.87 084.87 000.00 100.00% 143.9 549 77.03% 065.38
One of the better performers out of LGB. I think they are at least breaking even here. Can't say the same about WN. If they do chose to cut back one of the other flights, they can certainly shift one of the slots here.

LGBSEA 965 B6 41333 149.24 149.24 000.00 100.00% 150.0 356 77.40% 115.51
LGBPDX 846 B6 24947 137.08 137.08 000.00 100.00% 150.0 181 91.89% 125.96
This continues a trend from Q1 where PDX gets higher yield than SEA despite shorter distance. Might be due to the greater number of flights to SEA. SEA is getting good fares number, but LF is lacking for Q2. Yield is up on both routes over Q1. PDX is probably close to system average in performance with this yield level. SEA is definitely losing money.

LGBRNO 402 B6 21332 123.51 123.51 000.00 100.00% 150.0 181 78.57% 097.04
Again, RNO numbers are not bad. This is probably making money

LGBSLC 588 B6 67800 113.70 113.70 000.00 100.00% 150.0 519 87.09% 099.02
LGBSLC 588 OO 50084 139.03 139.03 000.00 100.00% 75.9 725 91.04% 126.57
Yield here is down vs Q1 and Q4. Probably close to breaking even here after being profitable in Q1. It's not clear to me what DL sees in LGB. This is clearly a money losing route for them.

LGBAUS 1226 B6 25073 162.26 162.26 000.00 100.00% 150.0 182 91.84% 149.02
This is good numbers. Yield is up vs Q1 and Q4. Definitely profitable at this level.

LGBBZN 904 B6 3411 124.97 124.97 000.00 100.00% 150.0 28 81.21% 101.49
Not sure why this is still being operated next year. If they want to keep BZN around, I'd say Sat only JFK/BOS-BZN makes more sense. I'd imagine a large part of this is the subsidies.


I'm thinking that closing LGB will be the final "stage" of the network reallocation before 2020 comes to an end. Those planes could be used to boost frequency on BOS-HOU/DFW/DEN/PHX, FLL-ORD/AUS/MSY, and connect more dots like FLL-SEA. Protecting the BOS hub (and FLL) should be priority #1 right now. LGB needs to be sacrificed for the greater good.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:12 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks for the notes here. A couple other things that I picked up:

-They are downplaying the Norwegian interline and stressed that there are 50 other airlines who have the same exact agreement
-No expectation or plan for further 321neo delays
-Mint continues to outperform system RASM
-TATL/London is on schedule, and any ETOPS/Customs ramp-up costs are included in 2020 guidance
-Network reallocation is causing significant margin benefit (no wonder they are closing MEX)
-Improvements in D0/A14 compared to prior year

It looks like Wall Street was happy. B6 stock closed +7%!

I'm thinking that closing LGB will be the final "stage" of the network reallocation before 2020 comes to an end. Those planes could be used to boost frequency on BOS-HOU/DFW/DEN/PHX, FLL-ORD/AUS/MSY, and connect more dots like FLL-SEA. Protecting the BOS hub (and FLL) should be priority #1 right now. LGB needs to be sacrificed for the greater good.

The part that really got to me is cost cutting. They are projecting -2.5 to -0.5% CASM growth next year after minimal growth this year. That is really low. If they can actually get it to that level (through adding more seats to A320), that will be able to even offset tough domestic fare environment next year. All they need is to get to 2021 when A320 reconfigs are done and A321LR/A220 come into service. The unit cost is really going to drop once A220s replace E90/A320s and other airlines will be seeing the effects of new labor contract. They are going to need every bit of that cost advantage + Fare option 2.0 against NK down in Florida.

And I've also been thinking about what else is not essential to their network if things get really bad. Certainly, Cuba should be on the top of the list. With MEX gone, they should cut Cuba down to 2x FLL-HAV and maybe 3x weekly to JFK. I agree that further cuts to LGB should happen too. Sure, it stinks to give up something when competitor is losing more money, but LGB is really not that important to them. LGB-SJC/SMF are easy targets. And they can cut RNO completely from their network given the underperformance of JFK-RNO. They can always add them back into their network down the road if they get the additional gates at LAX. And if they give up in near term of expanding in MCO, they can always cut MCO-LAX/HAV/AUS.

The way I look at it, both FLL and MCO will be huge battlegrounds given NK's fleet expansion and WN in MCO + DL/AA at MIA. B6 is unlikely to come out in good shape in both focus cities. They are far more likely to end up in good shape at FLL given the gate constraints there for NK and their success in capturing high yielding passengers in South Florida. At MCO, not only are they facing off against NK's low costs and WN's nationwide network, they are also battling against all the legacies with significant ff there.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3613
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
The way I look at it, both FLL and MCO will be huge battlegrounds given NK's fleet expansion and WN in MCO + DL/AA at MIA. B6 is unlikely to come out in good shape in both focus cities. They are far more likely to end up in good shape at FLL given the gate constraints there for NK and their success in capturing high yielding passengers in South Florida. At MCO, not only are they facing off against NK's low costs and WN's nationwide network, they are also battling against all the legacies with significant ff there.


WN also serves MCO nonstop on at least a seasonal basis from some destinations not currently served by NK or B6 such as BHM, CVG, GRR, ISP, SDF, MHT, MEM, MKE, ORF, OMA, STL, and SAT.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3613
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:51 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
I'm thinking that closing LGB will be the final "stage" of the network reallocation before 2020 comes to an end. Those planes could be used to boost frequency on BOS-HOU/DFW/DEN/PHX, FLL-ORD/AUS/MSY, and connect more dots like FLL-SEA. Protecting the BOS hub (and FLL) should be priority #1 right now. LGB needs to be sacrificed for the greater good.


There are a few additional routes such as LGB-DAL and LGB-PHX that could be made by WN if B6 pulls out of LGB and if WN acquires extra slots at LGB. WN could also increase LGB-DEN and LGB-LAS to year-round daily nonstop service if WN acquires extra slots at LGB.

There are also some adds that could be made by AA, DL, UA, and AS at LGB if B6 pulls out of LGB, including AA re-adding DFW-LGB, DL adding LGB-ATL and LGB-SEA, UA adding LGB-SFO and LGB-DEN, and AS adding LGB-SEA, LGB-PDX, and LGB-SFO.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 326
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:42 pm

I honestly seriously doubt they will pull out of LGB. I'm scratching my head by these comments. They need some sort of foothold/beachead in the west coast to be a relevant player. LGB is much smaller than their other focus cities so its not like its a huge chunk of their ASM's and dragging them down that much. LGB has seen worse days, they are breaking even now. I've said it before, they will draw down LGB if and when they get more gates at LAX. But to cut off the west coast, I don't see it happening soon.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3309
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks for the notes here. A couple other things that I picked up:

-They are downplaying the Norwegian interline and stressed that there are 50 other airlines who have the same exact agreement
-No expectation or plan for further 321neo delays
-Mint continues to outperform system RASM
-TATL/London is on schedule, and any ETOPS/Customs ramp-up costs are included in 2020 guidance
-Network reallocation is causing significant margin benefit (no wonder they are closing MEX)
-Improvements in D0/A14 compared to prior year

It looks like Wall Street was happy. B6 stock closed +7%!

I'm thinking that closing LGB will be the final "stage" of the network reallocation before 2020 comes to an end. Those planes could be used to boost frequency on BOS-HOU/DFW/DEN/PHX, FLL-ORD/AUS/MSY, and connect more dots like FLL-SEA. Protecting the BOS hub (and FLL) should be priority #1 right now. LGB needs to be sacrificed for the greater good.

The part that really got to me is cost cutting. They are projecting -2.5 to -0.5% CASM growth next year after minimal growth this year. That is really low. If they can actually get it to that level (through adding more seats to A320), that will be able to even offset tough domestic fare environment next year. All they need is to get to 2021 when A320 reconfigs are done and A321LR/A220 come into service. The unit cost is really going to drop once A220s replace E90/A320s and other airlines will be seeing the effects of new labor contract. They are going to need every bit of that cost advantage + Fare option 2.0 against NK down in Florida.

And I've also been thinking about what else is not essential to their network if things get really bad. Certainly, Cuba should be on the top of the list. With MEX gone, they should cut Cuba down to 2x FLL-HAV and maybe 3x weekly to JFK. I agree that further cuts to LGB should happen too. Sure, it stinks to give up something when competitor is losing more money, but LGB is really not that important to them. LGB-SJC/SMF are easy targets. And they can cut RNO completely from their network given the underperformance of JFK-RNO. They can always add them back into their network down the road if they get the additional gates at LAX. And if they give up in near term of expanding in MCO, they can always cut MCO-LAX/HAV/AUS.

The way I look at it, both FLL and MCO will be huge battlegrounds given NK's fleet expansion and WN in MCO + DL/AA at MIA. B6 is unlikely to come out in good shape in both focus cities. They are far more likely to end up in good shape at FLL given the gate constraints there for NK and their success in capturing high yielding passengers in South Florida. At MCO, not only are they facing off against NK's low costs and WN's nationwide network, they are also battling against all the legacies with significant ff there.


The cost cutting is coming in at the high end of the projections they had made, which is great news, and the ramp-up of the restyling, the introduction of the neo's, and the gradual addition of the A220 should further push down unit costs moving forward.

It confuses me why 2 of the FLL-HAV frequencies are operated with A320's. I understand that they want to hold onto the HAV slots, but throwing E190's on those rotations should help alleviate the red ink there. Those planes are empty. I agree MCO-LAX/AUS are also low-hanging fruit.

I think given the choice between FLL and MCO, it makes much more sense to invest resources in FLL. There is far more premium and business demand, B6 is already the largest carrier so can build on its strengths, and traffic patterns fit more into B6's existing East Coast/Transcon/LatAm-centric network. I suspect MCO has far less premium, B6 is nowhere near the largest carrier, and I suspect a significant chunk of traffic originates from markets that B6 is weak/nonexistent in (i.e. Midwest/Great Plains). MCO just seems like an uphill battle for traffic that isn't all that lucrative beyond what they are already capturing.

Abeam79 wrote:
I honestly seriously doubt they will pull out of LGB. I'm scratching my head by these comments. They need some sort of foothold/beachead in the west coast to be a relevant player. LGB is much smaller than their other focus cities so its not like its a huge chunk of their ASM's and dragging them down that much. LGB has seen worse days, they are breaking even now. I've said it before, they will draw down LGB if and when they get more gates at LAX. But to cut off the west coast, I don't see it happening soon.


I agree that LGB appears to be breaking even, but I don't think that's enough when considering B6 is stretched thin on planes and getting attacked by DL @ BOS and NK/WN @ FLL (not to mention AA @ MIA and, soon, DL). They have finite resources, and need to use what they have to protect the more profitable focus cities, where competitors are growing and trying to take their market share. The beachead at LGB is so small and so irrelevant to the LA Basin in general that I don't see what the value is to the network, especially after the reduction in flights / return of some slots a couple years ago. Does having a few flights from LGB to a handful of cities really give B6 any meaningful relevance to LA-based travelers? I doubt it, so it's unclear why they continue to tie up resources there.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 619
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:46 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks for the notes here. A couple other things that I picked up:

-They are downplaying the Norwegian interline and stressed that there are 50 other airlines who have the same exact agreement
-No expectation or plan for further 321neo delays
-Mint continues to outperform system RASM
-TATL/London is on schedule, and any ETOPS/Customs ramp-up costs are included in 2020 guidance
-Network reallocation is causing significant margin benefit (no wonder they are closing MEX)
-Improvements in D0/A14 compared to prior year

It looks like Wall Street was happy. B6 stock closed +7%!

I'm thinking that closing LGB will be the final "stage" of the network reallocation before 2020 comes to an end. Those planes could be used to boost frequency on BOS-HOU/DFW/DEN/PHX, FLL-ORD/AUS/MSY, and connect more dots like FLL-SEA. Protecting the BOS hub (and FLL) should be priority #1 right now. LGB needs to be sacrificed for the greater good.

The part that really got to me is cost cutting. They are projecting -2.5 to -0.5% CASM growth next year after minimal growth this year. That is really low. If they can actually get it to that level (through adding more seats to A320), that will be able to even offset tough domestic fare environment next year. All they need is to get to 2021 when A320 reconfigs are done and A321LR/A220 come into service. The unit cost is really going to drop once A220s replace E90/A320s and other airlines will be seeing the effects of new labor contract. They are going to need every bit of that cost advantage + Fare option 2.0 against NK down in Florida.

And I've also been thinking about what else is not essential to their network if things get really bad. Certainly, Cuba should be on the top of the list. With MEX gone, they should cut Cuba down to 2x FLL-HAV and maybe 3x weekly to JFK. I agree that further cuts to LGB should happen too. Sure, it stinks to give up something when competitor is losing more money, but LGB is really not that important to them. LGB-SJC/SMF are easy targets. And they can cut RNO completely from their network given the underperformance of JFK-RNO. They can always add them back into their network down the road if they get the additional gates at LAX. And if they give up in near term of expanding in MCO, they can always cut MCO-LAX/HAV/AUS.

The way I look at it, both FLL and MCO will be huge battlegrounds given NK's fleet expansion and WN in MCO + DL/AA at MIA. B6 is unlikely to come out in good shape in both focus cities. They are far more likely to end up in good shape at FLL given the gate constraints there for NK and their success in capturing high yielding passengers in South Florida. At MCO, not only are they facing off against NK's low costs and WN's nationwide network, they are also battling against all the legacies with significant ff there.


The cost cutting is coming in at the high end of the projections they had made, which is great news, and the ramp-up of the restyling, the introduction of the neo's, and the gradual addition of the A220 should further push down unit costs moving forward.

It confuses me why 2 of the FLL-HAV frequencies are operated with A320's. I understand that they want to hold onto the HAV slots, but throwing E190's on those rotations should help alleviate the red ink there. Those planes are empty. I agree MCO-LAX/AUS are also low-hanging fruit.

I think given the choice between FLL and MCO, it makes much more sense to invest resources in FLL. There is far more premium and business demand, B6 is already the largest carrier so can build on its strengths, and traffic patterns fit more into B6's existing East Coast/Transcon/LatAm-centric network. I suspect MCO has far less premium, B6 is nowhere near the largest carrier, and I suspect a significant chunk of traffic originates from markets that B6 is weak/nonexistent in (i.e. Midwest/Great Plains). MCO just seems like an uphill battle for traffic that isn't all that lucrative beyond what they are already capturing.

Abeam79 wrote:
I honestly seriously doubt they will pull out of LGB. I'm scratching my head by these comments. They need some sort of foothold/beachead in the west coast to be a relevant player. LGB is much smaller than their other focus cities so its not like its a huge chunk of their ASM's and dragging them down that much. LGB has seen worse days, they are breaking even now. I've said it before, they will draw down LGB if and when they get more gates at LAX. But to cut off the west coast, I don't see it happening soon.


I agree that LGB appears to be breaking even, but I don't think that's enough when considering B6 is stretched thin on planes and getting attacked by DL @ BOS and NK/WN @ FLL (not to mention AA @ MIA and, soon, DL). They have finite resources, and need to use what they have to protect the more profitable focus cities, where competitors are growing and trying to take their market share. The beachead at LGB is so small and so irrelevant to the LA Basin in general that I don't see what the value is to the network, especially after the reduction in flights / return of some slots a couple years ago. Does having a few flights from LGB to a handful of cities really give B6 any meaningful relevance to LA-based travelers? I doubt it, so it's unclear why they continue to tie up resources there.



They may appear to be barely breakeven on paper with LGB but once you factor in all the ridiculous airport/city fines they pay for post curfew arrivals and departures im pretty sure the station is a loss. With the MFC opening at LAX soon I’m sure we will see a nice bump in flights there. Keeping LGB around for low yielding or losing stations like SEA,SFO,SJC,RNO and SMF is pretty pointless when that metal can go elsewhere and actually make $$. Face it LGB is just a giant turd and that station should just dissipate!
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:49 pm

Next year the LAX midfield terminal opens up this will give B6 5 gates. Some periods of the day it will have partial use of 2 additional gates. The potential for growth at LAX May come at the expense of some LGB Flying.
LGB Numbers since the reduction in slots has improved the revenues.
They only way I see LGB closing is if the A220 has the legs to make Transcontinental flying from SNA profitable for B6.
Otherwise I see B6 In LGB easily for another 10 yrs or the Big IF WN buys them.
Also Once B6 gets A321LR for European ETOPS Nothing stoping B6 from flying them birds to BOS/NYC-LGB -Hawaii .

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:31 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Next year the LAX midfield terminal opens up this will give B6 5 gates. Some periods of the day it will have partial use of 2 additional gates. The potential for growth at LAX May come at the expense of some LGB Flying.
LGB Numbers since the reduction in slots has improved the revenues.
They only way I see LGB closing is if the A220 has the legs to make Transcontinental flying from SNA profitable for B6.
Otherwise I see B6 In LGB easily for another 10 yrs or the Big IF WN buys them.
Also Once B6 gets A321LR for European ETOPS Nothing stoping B6 from flying them birds to BOS/NYC-LGB -Hawaii .

Flyguy


Jetblue isn’t moving to the midfield concourse. This might be a recent change. I don’t know if they are getting additional gates, I know they want them though.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:29 am

N757ST wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Next year the LAX midfield terminal opens up this will give B6 5 gates. Some periods of the day it will have partial use of 2 additional gates. The potential for growth at LAX May come at the expense of some LGB Flying.
LGB Numbers since the reduction in slots has improved the revenues.
They only way I see LGB closing is if the A220 has the legs to make Transcontinental flying from SNA profitable for B6.
Otherwise I see B6 In LGB easily for another 10 yrs or the Big IF WN buys them.
Also Once B6 gets A321LR for European ETOPS Nothing stoping B6 from flying them birds to BOS/NYC-LGB -Hawaii .

Flyguy


Jetblue isn’t moving to the midfield concourse. This might be a recent change. I don’t know if they are getting additional gates, I know they want them though.


Really, do you know where they are moving? I can't imagine AA will allow them to stay in T5 given their agreement with LAX. All the LCCs need to move somewhere. I thought MSC was the only available spot until they can build T0 or something.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

The cost cutting is coming in at the high end of the projections they had made, which is great news, and the ramp-up of the restyling, the introduction of the neo's, and the gradual addition of the A220 should further push down unit costs moving forward.

It confuses me why 2 of the FLL-HAV frequencies are operated with A320's. I understand that they want to hold onto the HAV slots, but throwing E190's on those rotations should help alleviate the red ink there. Those planes are empty. I agree MCO-LAX/AUS are also low-hanging fruit.

I think given the choice between FLL and MCO, it makes much more sense to invest resources in FLL. There is far more premium and business demand, B6 is already the largest carrier so can build on its strengths, and traffic patterns fit more into B6's existing East Coast/Transcon/LatAm-centric network. I suspect MCO has far less premium, B6 is nowhere near the largest carrier, and I suspect a significant chunk of traffic originates from markets that B6 is weak/nonexistent in (i.e. Midwest/Great Plains). MCO just seems like an uphill battle for traffic that isn't all that lucrative beyond what they are already capturing.

I wonder if they can cut their CASM down to a point where their A321 CASM becomes competitive with NK's A320 CASM on same route. Right now, I think they are 40% higher overall despite the recent cost controls. Maybe the gap for same route between A320 series is smaller given B6 does operate from high cost airports and also have CASM killer in E90. So let's say on A320s on the same route, their CASM would be 30 to 35% higher, then A321 at moment would probably be 15% higher than NK A320 and comparable to NK A319. If they can keep their cost down while NK's come up, then they might get to a point where their A321 is <10% higher in cost than NK A320 on the same route. That would be pretty huge. They are deploying A321s on a lot of frequencies from BOS to Florida next year. If they can keep the cost down here + price match selectively with fare option 2.0, I think they can run NK off a lot of BOS to Florida routes or make them seasonal. That's already happened on BWI/ATL/MSP. NK has better places to deploy its planes than in the middle of a fare war between B6 and DL. And given that I assessed A220 CASM to be within under 5% of A321CEO and under %10 of A321NEO, I think it's really going to bring them a lot of advantages once it arrives. NK imo is making a huge mistake not going for A220.

The combo of A321NEO + A220 out of FLL will give them competitive CASM against NK. And they can always attack MCO once BOS/FLL futures are secured. That might be another 3 or 4 years.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:41 am

tphuang wrote:
N757ST wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Next year the LAX midfield terminal opens up this will give B6 5 gates. Some periods of the day it will have partial use of 2 additional gates. The potential for growth at LAX May come at the expense of some LGB Flying.
LGB Numbers since the reduction in slots has improved the revenues.
They only way I see LGB closing is if the A220 has the legs to make Transcontinental flying from SNA profitable for B6.
Otherwise I see B6 In LGB easily for another 10 yrs or the Big IF WN buys them.
Also Once B6 gets A321LR for European ETOPS Nothing stoping B6 from flying them birds to BOS/NYC-LGB -Hawaii .

Flyguy


Jetblue isn’t moving to the midfield concourse. This might be a recent change. I don’t know if they are getting additional gates, I know they want them though.


Really, do you know where they are moving? I can't imagine AA will allow them to stay in T5 given their agreement with LAX. All the LCCs need to move somewhere. I thought MSC was the only available spot until they can build T0 or something.


I’m not sure. I’m pretty sure most of the ULCCs and Hawaiian are moving, but as far as I was told jetblue is staying put in T5.
 
trueblew
Posts: 147
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:49 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
I think given the choice between FLL and MCO, it makes much more sense to invest resources in FLL. There is far more premium and business demand, B6 is already the largest carrier so can build on its strengths, and traffic patterns fit more into B6's existing East Coast/Transcon/LatAm-centric network. I suspect MCO has far less premium, B6 is nowhere near the largest carrier, and I suspect a significant chunk of traffic originates from markets that B6 is weak/nonexistent in (i.e. Midwest/Great Plains). MCO just seems like an uphill battle for traffic that isn't all that lucrative beyond what they are already capturing.


This makes sense. Would there be a chance of B6 minimally growing MCO by introducing Saturday-only service to a lot of markets with flights currently only to other focus cities (e.g., MCO-CLE/ORD/BWI/PIT/BNA/BTV)? Delta seems to have success with Sat-only service to smaller markets.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:50 pm

B6 has said no expansion to MCO till new terminal is built. B6 is not focused on MCO until next year when operation moves to new terminal. Then they are going to start adding direct MCO to the northeast. They are at capacity in MCO right now. They can’t expand and the terminal is outdated and small
 
tphuang
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:51 am

News out that all non hav Cuban flying have been suspended. That should be some additional e90 freed up for the holiday season. It's not clear why hav was kept at current level, but I wouldn't be surprised if that gets suspended too next year.

For JetBlue management, this is a great face saving moment for you. You have lost a lot of money there. It provides nothing for your network outside of many FLL to hav. Use this as an opportunity to get out of more Cuban routes. Cut mco, bos and maybe even JFK. Not worth this continued struggle for support a service with no demand.

With the freed up aircraft, they can add the extra frequency that has already been tested out of FLL to msy and chs. They can also finally launch a flight from Boston to a new city. I would welcome anything other than adding to the usual northeast to Florida and daylight Transcon flying.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3613
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:03 am

tphuang wrote:
They can also finally launch a flight from Boston to a new city. I would welcome anything other than adding to the usual northeast to Florida and daylight Transcon flying.


There are a few more nonstop routes that could be added by B6 out of BOS such as BOS-CVG, BOS-MCI, BOS-IND, BOS-MKE, BOS-ORF, and BOS-SAT. Which of these routes is B6 likely to add out of BOS?
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3214
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:01 pm

jplatts wrote:
tphuang wrote:
They can also finally launch a flight from Boston to a new city. I would welcome anything other than adding to the usual northeast to Florida and daylight Transcon flying.


There are a few more nonstop routes that could be added by B6 out of BOS such as BOS-CVG, BOS-MCI, BOS-IND, BOS-MKE, BOS-ORF, and BOS-SAT. Which of these routes is B6 likely to add out of BOS?


They like to look at largest unserved out of BOS (i.e why we have all the bluster on LON) and looking at Q42018 - top 3 are IND/CMH/MCI which at the time had WN service too. I think there were definitely discussions with IND since DL may have gotten wind of it and increased service.

Also, the BOS-HAV weekly should it stay or go? Lets look at the loads for first 4 months of 2019.

January 2019 - 58% and one departure/arrival cancelled
Februrary 2019 - 49.8%
March 2019 - 77.6%
April 2019 - 75.8%

If advanced bookings show no improvement for W2020 (the fares are below $350 for non-vacation weeks in Jan/Feb 2020), this route should be replaced with a Caribbean/Latin American destination already served by JFK/MCO/FLL: ANU, CUR, GND, or SJO. Compare the above numbers to the weekly BOS-UVF's loads for first four months in the same time period. I believe many of the high snowfalls in 2015 avoided Saturdays too.

January 2015 - 86.8% (appears to be one cancellation)
February 2015- 86.1%
March 2015 - 92.2%
April 2015 - 87.8%

B6 could easily replicate these numbers for other destinations mentioned above and ANU would be the best bang for the buck due to its shorter stage length and ANU would sweeten the pot for a BOS flight.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
tphuang
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:38 pm

Interesting item OAG this week
**B6 BOS-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
**B6 FLL-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[2] FEB 1.0>0[2] MAR 1.0>0[2] APR 1.0>0[2] MAY 1.0>0[2] JUN 0.3>0[2]
B6 FLL-PUJ FEB 0.2>0.8[1.0] APR 0.1>1.0[1.0]
**B6 JFK-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
**B6 MCO-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[2] FEB 1.0>0[2] MAR 1.0>0[2] APR 1.0>0[2] MAY 1.0>0[2] JUN 0.3>0[2]

MEX is cut as expected. FLL-PUJ is restored now.

AS FLL-SFO MAR 0.8>0.6[0.7]

I wish B6 would make that non-mint A321NEO on FLL-SFO last all of the winter and early spring and then switch to BOS-SFO for rest of the year. With more capacity, they should be able to push AS off completely and maybe UA to MIA-SFO.

DL BOS-FLL JAN 2.0>1.3[1.0] FEB 2>1.2[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.1[1.0]

Again, more relief in the BOS-Florida market. I guess DL's move to 2x in some of these Florida markets isn't working out as they expected. Again, this is one of those things where I believe as long as B6 continues to keep cost down and upgauge further, it will put pressure on both DL and NK in these markets. All the BOS-Florida markets should be upgauged to A321 or at least 162 seat A320s as soon as possible. With their announcement of more NorthEast to Florida, I totally expect more capacity on BOS-FLL in the coming weeks.

adamh8297 wrote:
B6 could easily replicate these numbers for other destinations mentioned above and ANU would be the best bang for the buck due to its shorter stage length and ANU would sweeten the pot for a BOS flight.

completely agreed, there are quite a few Caribbean market B6 (PTP, ANU) could try out of BOS seasonally on a weekly basis (or a 3x weekly basis) that would do well. PSP/HAV should both be cut. I'd also like to see them try BOS-BZN seasonally, since they already opened a station there.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3309
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
Interesting item OAG this week
**B6 BOS-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
**B6 FLL-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[2] FEB 1.0>0[2] MAR 1.0>0[2] APR 1.0>0[2] MAY 1.0>0[2] JUN 0.3>0[2]
B6 FLL-PUJ FEB 0.2>0.8[1.0] APR 0.1>1.0[1.0]
**B6 JFK-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
**B6 MCO-MEX JAN 1.0>0.3[2] FEB 1.0>0[2] MAR 1.0>0[2] APR 1.0>0[2] MAY 1.0>0[2] JUN 0.3>0[2]

MEX is cut as expected. FLL-PUJ is restored now.

AS FLL-SFO MAR 0.8>0.6[0.7]

I wish B6 would make that non-mint A321NEO on FLL-SFO last all of the winter and early spring and then switch to BOS-SFO for rest of the year. With more capacity, they should be able to push AS off completely and maybe UA to MIA-SFO.

DL BOS-FLL JAN 2.0>1.3[1.0] FEB 2>1.2[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.1[1.0]

Again, more relief in the BOS-Florida market. I guess DL's move to 2x in some of these Florida markets isn't working out as they expected. Again, this is one of those things where I believe as long as B6 continues to keep cost down and upgauge further, it will put pressure on both DL and NK in these markets. All the BOS-Florida markets should be upgauged to A321 or at least 162 seat A320s as soon as possible. With their announcement of more NorthEast to Florida, I totally expect more capacity on BOS-FLL in the coming weeks.

adamh8297 wrote:
B6 could easily replicate these numbers for other destinations mentioned above and ANU would be the best bang for the buck due to its shorter stage length and ANU would sweeten the pot for a BOS flight.

completely agreed, there are quite a few Caribbean market B6 (PTP, ANU) could try out of BOS seasonally on a weekly basis (or a 3x weekly basis) that would do well. PSP/HAV should both be cut. I'd also like to see them try BOS-BZN seasonally, since they already opened a station there.


With the Cuba and MEX drawdown, in addition to much of the network optimization that has already occurred, it appears that B6 will enter 2020 in pretty lean shape. It’s also promising that B6 is seeing some relief DL on BOS-Florida (in addition to the recent trims from WN and NK). Interestingly B6 has never placed an A321 on BOS-FLL while they are used heavily on BOS/JFK--FLL/MCO/PBI/RSW. I wonder why?

If JFKSJO does well then maybe B6 could give it a shot from BOS.

The use of non-Mint aircraft to increase frequency on JFK/BOS-SAN and BOS/FLL-SFO is an interesting strategy. It allows them to further build relevance in those markets while not flooding the market with more premium capacity. Although, I think these markets (particularly SFO) could absorb additional Mint seats without pressuring yields too much.
 
DELTA777
Posts: 673
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2000 6:34 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:32 pm

This would be interesting:

Exclusive: Brazil to lure airlines to fly domestic, taking meetings with three carriers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-braz ... SKBN1X60O6
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5276
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:32 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
With the Cuba and MEX drawdown, in addition to much of the network optimization that has already occurred, it appears that B6 will enter 2020 in pretty lean shape.


Would love to see B6 use this additional capacity to add IND-BOS, but I'm not holding my breath

DELTA777 wrote:
This would be interesting:

Exclusive: Brazil to lure airlines to fly domestic, taking meetings with three carriers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-braz ... SKBN1X60O6


B6 operating domestic flights within Brazil? hmmmmm, I don't know about that idea
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:31 am

N757ST wrote:
tphuang wrote:
N757ST wrote:

Jetblue isn’t moving to the midfield concourse. This might be a recent change. I don’t know if they are getting additional gates, I know they want them though.


Really, do you know where they are moving? I can't imagine AA will allow them to stay in T5 given their agreement with LAX. All the LCCs need to move somewhere. I thought MSC was the only available spot until they can build T0 or something.


I’m not sure. I’m pretty sure most of the ULCCs and Hawaiian are moving, but as far as I was told jetblue is staying put in T5.


AA is getting T5 to itself, so everybody is certainly leaving.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5206
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:52 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:

With the Cuba and MEX drawdown, in addition to much of the network optimization that has already occurred, it appears that B6 will enter 2020 in pretty lean shape.

holding out hopes they will cut some of the HAV stuff.
It’s also promising that B6 is seeing some relief DL on BOS-Florida (in addition to the recent trims from WN and NK). Interestingly B6 has never placed an A321 on BOS-FLL while they are used heavily on BOS/JFK--FLL/MCO/PBI/RSW. I wonder why?

If JFKSJO does well then maybe B6 could give it a shot from BOS.

The use of non-Mint aircraft to increase frequency on JFK/BOS-SAN and BOS/FLL-SFO is an interesting strategy. It allows them to further build relevance in those markets while not flooding the market with more premium capacity. Although, I think these markets (particularly SFO) could absorb additional Mint seats without pressuring yields too much.

I see in May, they have 2x A321 and 3x A320 on BOS-FLL. I see A321s now on all BOS-FLL/TPA/MCO/PBI/RSW, which is a huge change over even a year ago when it was pretty much just on MCO. Speaking of MCO, I see now 3x A321, 6x A320, 1x E90 in April. That's a lot of flights + capacity. I can't believe both NK and F9 are on that route. The only ones without A321 are JAX/SRQ. I don't expect those to get A321s before JFK-JAX/SRQ.

Also a note from our BOS thread discussion, I'm reading enough E90 chatters that I think there is a pretty good chance the 30 owned E90 will stick around past 2025. Well, at least a good number of them, let's say 20. And those have the right capacity for BOS shuttle routes and should be able to do quicker turns than A220. A220 options should be for good amount of growth + A320 replacement. And if they keep E90, not much point in picking up A220-100.

Midwestindy wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
With the Cuba and MEX drawdown, in addition to much of the network optimization that has already occurred, it appears that B6 will enter 2020 in pretty lean shape.


Would love to see B6 use this additional capacity to add IND-BOS, but I'm not holding my breath

An April to early May start would probably need to be announced by 2nd week of December at the latest. With these Cuba/MEX cuts, it's as good time as any.


DELTA777 wrote:
This would be interesting:

Exclusive: Brazil to lure airlines to fly domestic, taking meetings with three carriers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-braz ... SKBN1X60O6


B6 operating domestic flights within Brazil? hmmmmm, I don't know about that idea


Maybe this will lead to them operating FLL to Brazil down the road.

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