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Planeboy17
Posts: 448
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:02 pm

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe it’s now somewhere between 18-22 daily. Why they even keep LGB open makes me scratch my head. I’d put a pretty good bet on it that it’s either reduced to strictly One or two daily to BOS and JFK or shuttered completely once the MFC opens up at LAX.[/quote]
Just looked at Monday, November 4th and it shows 19 departures.
SLC 3
LAS 3
SMF 2
SFO 2
SJC 2
SEA 2
JFK 2
AUS 1
BOS 1
RNO 1

Just FYI, DCA has 30 departures on the same day.

I just used the B6 website so maybe I’m missing a city they fly to but I think I checked all of them.
 
User avatar
VS4ever
Posts: 2580
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:42 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe it’s now somewhere between 18-22 daily. Why they even keep LGB open makes me scratch my head. I’d put a pretty good bet on it that it’s either reduced to strictly One or two daily to BOS and JFK or shuttered completely once the MFC opens up at LAX.

Just looked at Monday, November 4th and it shows 19 departures.
SLC 3
LAS 3
SMF 2
SFO 2
SJC 2
SEA 2
JFK 2
AUS 1
BOS 1
RNO 1

Just FYI, DCA has 30 departures on the same day.

I just used the B6 website so maybe I’m missing a city they fly to but I think I checked all of them.[/quote]

You are missing PDX 1 and OAK 2, that gets you to the 22 at the top level of your range
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 448
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:28 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe it’s now somewhere between 18-22 daily. Why they even keep LGB open makes me scratch my head. I’d put a pretty good bet on it that it’s either reduced to strictly One or two daily to BOS and JFK or shuttered completely once the MFC opens up at LAX.

Just looked at Monday, November 4th and it shows 19 departures.
SLC 3
LAS 3
SMF 2
SFO 2
SJC 2
SEA 2
JFK 2
AUS 1
BOS 1
RNO 1

Just FYI, DCA has 30 departures on the same day.

I just used the B6 website so maybe I’m missing a city they fly to but I think I checked all of them.


You are missing PDX 1 and OAK 2, that gets you to the 22 at the top level of your range[/quote]
Thanks, I figured I missed 1 or 2.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:36 am

I was just pointing out how much Boston has grown already. They have been steadily running at least 170 flights a day since September. They are easily going to hit peak 200 in the next year and half.

There is no question JFK is still larger than boston at the moment with all the a321s and long range flights to Latin america, but Boston is going to keep growing. There is going to be a lot of a321s on the Boston Florida routes next year. And eventually many of the e90 routes are going to be upgauged to a220-300. Unless more jfk slots become available, the number of flights out of Boston will greatly exceed JFK and maybe even all of new York area by the time they receive all the gates. A simple calculation would yield probably 33 to 40% more domestic flight vs early 2019 and about 15 to 20% more passengers per flight by 2025 once they receive all the gates and a220s. I think it's reasonable to expect this level of growth over next 6 years. That's about 10% growth per year domestically + even more internationally.

That would make their domestic passenger count on a similar level to what Southwest has at BWI and aa has at phl right now. We always think of their operation at Boston as the largest carrier in a fragmented market, but I think they are on their way to 45% domestic market share.

I didn't list lgb because it's pretty steady at around 22 or 23 flights a day.

I agree that fare option 2.0 is the more immediate concern. A220 is more for a couple of years from now. It's really going to make their midcon and Transcon flying very competitive since they can make a lot of thin routes work that would be harder to fill on an a320 and uneconomical on e90. If they can ever get some more gates at lax or try to build up a new station in a smaller city, a220 will be the key. I do think they should get some a220-100 at some point.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:11 am

tphuang wrote:
I was just pointing out how much Boston has grown already. They have been steadily running at least 170 flights a day since September. They are easily going to hit peak 200 in the next year and half.

There is no question JFK is still larger than boston at the moment with all the a321s and long range flights to Latin america, but Boston is going to keep growing. There is going to be a lot of a321s on the Boston Florida routes next year. And eventually many of the e90 routes are going to be upgauged to a220-300. Unless more jfk slots become available, the number of flights out of Boston will greatly exceed JFK and maybe even all of new York area by the time they receive all the gates. A simple calculation would yield probably 33 to 40% more domestic flight vs early 2019 and about 15 to 20% more passengers per flight by 2025 once they receive all the gates and a220s. I think it's reasonable to expect this level of growth over next 6 years. That's about 10% growth per year domestically + even more internationally.

That would make their domestic passenger count on a similar level to what Southwest has at BWI and aa has at phl right now. We always think of their operation at Boston as the largest carrier in a fragmented market, but I think they are on their way to 45% domestic market share.

I didn't list lgb because it's pretty steady at around 22 or 23 flights a day.

I agree that fare option 2.0 is the more immediate concern. A220 is more for a couple of years from now. It's really going to make their midcon and Transcon flying very competitive since they can make a lot of thin routes work that would be harder to fill on an a320 and uneconomical on e90. If they can ever get some more gates at lax or try to build up a new station in a smaller city, a220 will be the key. I do think they should get some a220-100 at some point.


Also those 220s will be flying all night long. Probably doing thin transcon/midcon red eyes. The 190 pretty much goes to sleep at midnight I doubt the 220 will.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am

A220 be at gate 16 jfk nov 12th/gate 28 bos nov 11th
 
FARmd90
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:56 pm

Blueknows wrote:
A220 be at gate 16 jfk nov 12th/gate 28 bos nov 11th


Will this be a Airbus demonstrator plane or the first A220 for jetblue?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 278
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:11 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
A220 be at gate 16 jfk nov 12th/gate 28 bos nov 11th


Will this be a Airbus demonstrator plane or the first A220 for jetblue?

Demo plane. First JB A220 will come from Mobile and is slated for the end of next year.
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
I agree that fare option 2.0 is the more immediate concern.


JetBlue has already said their basic economy fares may have "some limits, which might include things like boarding order, seating, and change/cancelation flexibility" -- not coincidentally, those are the exact things DL restricts. I am going to hazard a guess that B6 will also follow their lead on pricing. DL seems to pretty consistently charge $15, $25, or $35 extra (one-way) for Main Cabin depending on the route. I doubt that will be too disruptive.

It will be interesting to see if B6 will be any more generous than DL when it comes to Mosaic members flying on basic fares. I don't expect it, but it would be nice.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:47 pm

Is there anywhere B6 could logically expand to from EWR? Is it also a possibility that they start to bring the 321 more?
 
748iDEN
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:25 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:37 pm

Do we know if there is going to be any expansion of Mint routes? I'd love to see Mint equipped planes coming in to DEN so I could switch from flying with UA to EWR.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:59 pm

From OAG thread this week. Quite a bit of changes
B6 ATL-FLL DEC 2>3[2]
B6 BDL-PBI JAN 1.0>1.7[1.8] FEB 1.0>2[1.5] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 BDL-RSW JAN 1.0>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 BOS-CHS FEB 1.0>2.0[1.5] MAR 1.0>1.4[2]
B6 BOS-MCO MAR 9>8[7] APR 9>8[7]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 1.9>3[1.8] APR 1.9>3[1.9]
B6 BOS-SJC MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
B6 BOS-SRQ FEB 1.2>1.4[1.5]
B6 BQN-JFK FEB 0.6>0.8[0.5] MAR 0.5>0.7[0.5] APR 0.5>1.0[0.5]
Cuba law change
**B6 CMW-FLL DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 EWR-MCO JAN 6>7[6]
B6 EWR-SJU JAN 0.9>1.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.5[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.5[1.0] APR 1.0>1.5[1.0]
B6 EWR-STI JAN 1.0>2[1.4] FEB 1.0>2.0[1.0] MAR 1.0>2.0[1.0] APR 1.1>2.0[1.0]
B6 EWR-TPA FEB 2>3[2]
Cuba law change
**B6 FLL-HOG DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 FLL-KIN DEC 3>4[2]
B6 FLL-LAS JAN 1.0>1.6[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.9[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 FLL-MBJ DEC 1.6>2[1.0]
Weakness in PUJ continues
B6 FLL-PUJ FEB 0.8>0.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.4[1.0] APR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
Cuba law change
**B6 FLL-SNU DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 HPN-RSW JAN 1.0>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0] MAY 1.0>2[1.0] JUN 0.3>0.7[1.0]
B6 LGB-SEA FEB 1.4>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.6[1.6] APR 1.1>1.6[1.9]
B6 MCO-SJO JAN 1.4>1.0[1.8]

It's interesting that they've only loaded redeployment for up to April. EWR finally so saw additions. Curious to see what their maximum departures will be in peak season (normally around April/May) next year.

I'm a little confused by their FLL one month add. ATL/CHS/SFO/MSY all seem to be places they can add a flight on, but they've so far only added that additional flight for one month and really close-in adds too.

And not surprised that they added more BDL winter capacity. Both PBI/RSW are really well performing routes.

dtremit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I agree that fare option 2.0 is the more immediate concern.


JetBlue has already said their basic economy fares may have "some limits, which might include things like boarding order, seating, and change/cancelation flexibility" -- not coincidentally, those are the exact things DL restricts. I am going to hazard a guess that B6 will also follow their lead on pricing. DL seems to pretty consistently charge $15, $25, or $35 extra (one-way) for Main Cabin depending on the route. I doubt that will be too disruptive.

It will be interesting to see if B6 will be any more generous than DL when it comes to Mosaic members flying on basic fares. I don't expect it, but it would be nice.

I don't think it's expected to be game changing. My guess is that they will be more like AS in terms of restrictions. But we will see. I think the goal is to gain some additional revenues in cases where they get price matched by legacy BE fares. Even 1 or 2 points of additional margin will move them to at least middle of the pack in margins industry wide. And that will light up wall st pressure and hopefully allow them to resume faster growth by 2021.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is there anywhere B6 could logically expand to from EWR? Is it also a possibility that they start to bring the 321 more?

Any of the better performing routes from JFK. EWR-LAX on mint would work great, but I think they can also do well to MSY/LAS/KIN/ACK/AUS. Problem is they will not be able to have gates to compete against UA beyond that.

748iDEN wrote:
Do we know if there is going to be any expansion of Mint routes? I'd love to see Mint equipped planes coming in to DEN so I could switch from flying with UA to EWR.

probably but I think DEN might be too short for mint. I see PHX as the next logical place.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:27 pm

New cheap fare is pretty basic
Can’t change ticket
No points purchase
No standby early flight allowed
Seat assigned day of or you can pay to get seat when you get tickets.
Carry on bag ok
Pay for checked bag
 
nine4nine
Posts: 654
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:27 am

Interesting little tidbit for today. N2016J an A321neo I believe is making her first inaugural revenue flight on the JFK-BUR run right now and is the first B6 321 flight into BUR.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
phllax
Posts: 614
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:25 am

nine4nine wrote:
Interesting little tidbit for today. N2016J an A321neo I believe is making her first inaugural revenue flight on the JFK-BUR run right now and is the first B6 321 flight into BUR.


You beat me to it! She’s actually just turned on to final to Runway 8. I actually think this is the first regularly scheduled 321 into Burbank. There have been a few US operated sports charters from the Arizona Diamondbacks when playing the Dodgers. This will be interesting to see what happens when Runway 33 departures are in effect.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 278
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:06 am

I don't recall seeing it mentioned, apologies if it was, but JFK-PHX is upgauged to an all core A321 around thanksgiving and Christmas. I don’t remember ever seeing a scheduled A321 to PHX.
 
FARmd90
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:35 am

In regards to the JFK-BUR flight tonight it was on the newest 321NEO and there are no seat restrictions with this flight. Both flights are allowed to sell all seats available.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
From OAG thread this week. Quite a bit of changes
B6 ATL-FLL DEC 2>3[2]
B6 BDL-PBI JAN 1.0>1.7[1.8] FEB 1.0>2[1.5] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 BDL-RSW JAN 1.0>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 BOS-CHS FEB 1.0>2.0[1.5] MAR 1.0>1.4[2]
B6 BOS-MCO MAR 9>8[7] APR 9>8[7]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 1.9>3[1.8] APR 1.9>3[1.9]
B6 BOS-SJC MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
B6 BOS-SRQ FEB 1.2>1.4[1.5]
B6 BQN-JFK FEB 0.6>0.8[0.5] MAR 0.5>0.7[0.5] APR 0.5>1.0[0.5]
Cuba law change
**B6 CMW-FLL DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 EWR-MCO JAN 6>7[6]
B6 EWR-SJU JAN 0.9>1.3[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.5[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.5[1.0] APR 1.0>1.5[1.0]
B6 EWR-STI JAN 1.0>2[1.4] FEB 1.0>2.0[1.0] MAR 1.0>2.0[1.0] APR 1.1>2.0[1.0]
B6 EWR-TPA FEB 2>3[2]
Cuba law change
**B6 FLL-HOG DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 FLL-KIN DEC 3>4[2]
B6 FLL-LAS JAN 1.0>1.6[1.0] FEB 1.0>1.9[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 FLL-MBJ DEC 1.6>2[1.0]
Weakness in PUJ continues
B6 FLL-PUJ FEB 0.8>0.4[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.4[1.0] APR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
Cuba law change
**B6 FLL-SNU DEC 1.0>0.3[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 HPN-RSW JAN 1.0>1.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0] MAY 1.0>2[1.0] JUN 0.3>0.7[1.0]
B6 LGB-SEA FEB 1.4>1.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.6[1.6] APR 1.1>1.6[1.9]
B6 MCO-SJO JAN 1.4>1.0[1.8]

It's interesting that they've only loaded redeployment for up to April. EWR finally so saw additions. Curious to see what their maximum departures will be in peak season (normally around April/May) next year.

I'm a little confused by their FLL one month add. ATL/CHS/SFO/MSY all seem to be places they can add a flight on, but they've so far only added that additional flight for one month and really close-in adds too.

And not surprised that they added more BDL winter capacity. Both PBI/RSW are really well performing routes.

dtremit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I agree that fare option 2.0 is the more immediate concern.


JetBlue has already said their basic economy fares may have "some limits, which might include things like boarding order, seating, and change/cancelation flexibility" -- not coincidentally, those are the exact things DL restricts. I am going to hazard a guess that B6 will also follow their lead on pricing. DL seems to pretty consistently charge $15, $25, or $35 extra (one-way) for Main Cabin depending on the route. I doubt that will be too disruptive.

It will be interesting to see if B6 will be any more generous than DL when it comes to Mosaic members flying on basic fares. I don't expect it, but it would be nice.

I don't think it's expected to be game changing. My guess is that they will be more like AS in terms of restrictions. But we will see. I think the goal is to gain some additional revenues in cases where they get price matched by legacy BE fares. Even 1 or 2 points of additional margin will move them to at least middle of the pack in margins industry wide. And that will light up wall st pressure and hopefully allow them to resume faster growth by 2021.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is there anywhere B6 could logically expand to from EWR? Is it also a possibility that they start to bring the 321 more?

Any of the better performing routes from JFK. EWR-LAX on mint would work great, but I think they can also do well to MSY/LAS/KIN/ACK/AUS. Problem is they will not be able to have gates to compete against UA beyond that.

748iDEN wrote:
Do we know if there is going to be any expansion of Mint routes? I'd love to see Mint equipped planes coming in to DEN so I could switch from flying with UA to EWR.

probably but I think DEN might be too short for mint. I see PHX as the next logical place.


Thanks for your analysis. I also am posting your response to the OAG thread here:

"I'm thinking they will either be more aggressive at getting A320 reconfigs done. Or more likely, I think some additions from late April will be announced soon. And given that nothing has been updated so far for May, I'm hoping that means new routes. It's almost like the B6 management is afraid of making a mistake so trying these short term adds to the schedule. Really strange to me."

It's strange indeed. I'm thinking that a lot of this may be due to the new mgmt team (or at least Marty St George's departure and Joanna's promotion). Over the past few months we have seen quite a few different things happening that we haven't seen in the past - in particular:

1 - All-Core capacity added to Mint markets (FLLSFO, JFKSAN, BOSSAN, BOSSFO)
2 - Month-to-month frequency changes (FLLLAX, FLLCHS, FLLMSY, and now FLLATL, FLLMBJ, FLLKIN)
3 - Further escalation of the network realignment (some of which I wouldn't have expected Marty to do, such as removing DCA-JAX/CHS/TPA in favor of more capacity to BOS/RSW/FLL/PBI, completely exiting MEX)

I also think they are trying really hard to hit those EPS targets by the end of 2020, and are probably trying to micromanage their capacity as closely as possible to get there.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:04 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
In regards to the JFK-BUR flight tonight it was on the newest 321NEO and there are no seat restrictions with this flight. Both flights are allowed to sell all seats available.


Super interesting. Was this just a one-off for testing purposes? Seems it reverts back to the 320 as of today.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:11 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
In regards to the JFK-BUR flight tonight it was on the newest 321NEO and there are no seat restrictions with this flight. Both flights are allowed to sell all seats available.


Super interesting. Was this just a one-off for testing purposes? Seems it reverts back to the 320 as of today.

I believe it goes to twice daily on a321 next year's.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:09 pm

announcement on updated IFE
http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -145944600
Seems like a lot of good stuff here for people to watch. Great to see them trying to refresh this to stay ahead of the game.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:27 pm

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-w ... eyard-mvy/

A little bit of a surprise here, but this is a pretty logical move imo. They don't use their DCA slots fully on the weekend, so this helps them with that. And if they get more adventurous here, they should also add ACK/MVY from EWR. Imo, they made a mistake this summer by adding too much ACK capacity out of JFK/LGA.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 654
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
In regards to the JFK-BUR flight tonight it was on the newest 321NEO and there are no seat restrictions with this flight. Both flights are allowed to sell all seats available.


Super interesting. Was this just a one-off for testing purposes? Seems it reverts back to the 320 as of today.

I believe it goes to twice daily on a321 next year's.



Correct. And I’d imagine eventually going from a core to Mint configuration once they test the performance on the route with the equipment change for a little bit. A birdie whispered that B6 would share the performance data on this 321n one-off flight with HA.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:52 am

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
In regards to the JFK-BUR flight tonight it was on the newest 321NEO and there are no seat restrictions with this flight. Both flights are allowed to sell all seats available.


Super interesting. Was this just a one-off for testing purposes? Seems it reverts back to the 320 as of today.

I believe it goes to twice daily on a321 next year's.


Looks to be the case. The summer 2020 schedule has also been released, and it looks like JFKLAX goes back to 10x Mint (presumably last summer’s 11-12x was too much, or thEY expect the added BUR capacity to be better yielding).

Interestingly JFKSAN goes to 3x Mint. BOSSAN goes to a whopping 4x (2x Mint, 1x 321and 1x 320). BOSLAX goes to 5x Mint. BOSSEA goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320). BOSSFO goes to 6x (5x Mint, 1x 321).

Quite a bit of additional capacity on trunk transcon routes next summer, especially out of BOS. FLLLAX also reverts to 4x Mint and FLLSFO goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320).

BOSDEN goes to 3x and BOSPHX goes to 2x. Maybe BOS will get to 200 daily flights by summer.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:18 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Super interesting. Was this just a one-off for testing purposes? Seems it reverts back to the 320 as of today.

I believe it goes to twice daily on a321 next year's.


Looks to be the case. The summer 2020 schedule has also been released, and it looks like JFKLAX goes back to 10x Mint (presumably last summer’s 11-12x was too much, or thEY expect the added BUR capacity to be better yielding).

Interestingly JFKSAN goes to 3x Mint. BOSSAN goes to a whopping 4x (2x Mint, 1x 321and 1x 320). BOSLAX goes to 5x Mint. BOSSEA goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320). BOSSFO goes to 6x (5x Mint, 1x 321).

Quite a bit of additional capacity on trunk transcon routes next summer, especially out of BOS. FLLLAX also reverts to 4x Mint and FLLSFO goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320).

BOSDEN goes to 3x and BOSPHX goes to 2x. Maybe BOS will get to 200 daily flights by summer.


I'm trying to figure out where they are getting the extra mint aircraft from.

JFK-LAS is still 2 out of 4 on mint.
same with BOS-LAS
JFK-SEA is 2 out of 2 mint still
JFK-SFO is 6 out of 6 still (the last flight has an awful arrival time)
at least JFK-LAX doesn't have that truly awful arrival time of 2 am anymore.

So if we just assume JFK-LAX frame went to FLL-LAX. Then, they seem to be getting 2 new mint configured aircraft next year for the additional frequency on JFK-SAN and BOS-LAX. Or maybe one more and they got even greater utilization from updated scheduling of existing flights. Either way, makes a lot of sense to add on both routes with AA giving up on the former and AS cutting back on the latter.

There was really a lot of adds with this update. BOS got a whole lot of adds as you said, both transcon and non-transcon
From what I can see YoY, additional flights to (not including the ones we already know from this year)
ACK
BUR (to daily from sub daily)
DEN
EWR
JFK
LAX
OAK (to daily from sub daily)
PBI
PDX (2x daily lasting longer)
PHX
RSW
SAN
SAV
SDQ
SEA
SJC
SMF (to daily now)
STI (2x daily)

The only reduction I saw were and some have already been changed.
JAX (which went from E90 to A320)
BWI
PIT (which got an A320)
TPA (upgauged)
Some of these changes are seasonal, but I'm guessing this is a net add of about new 10 flights

And speaking of EWR, I see 1 more flight to BOS, 2 more to FLL, 1 more to STI, 1 more to SDQ + SJU going to 2x daily now. Seems like they do have an additional gate now and FAA is at least allowing the additional flight to be scheduled.

JFK is more or less flat in terms of flights. One of the STI flights shifted to EWR. Again, a lot of SDQ capacity. POP got an extra flight, but PUJ lost one (expected I guess). CHS lost a flight.

JFK-LIR/SJO both became daily (unexpected, but good)

Somehow HPN added more flight. I don't know how they managed that.

Aside from that, FLL-JAX/LAS/SFO getting the extra flight seems to be permanent now.

MCO got additional flights to RIC/SDQ/SJU/BQN and lost flights to LGA/MBJ/HPN. LGA is from losing that slot. I think maybe they will add another flight to EWR-MCO to compensate for LGA/HPN.

SJU got additional capacity from BDL, EWR, MCO and TPA. I guess they are expecting things at PR to normalize by next year.

I wonder if this means no new city next summer out of BOS. That would be a disappointment to me. They seem to have used up all the planes freed up from MEX and Cuba. A lot of these adds are transcons.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:55 am

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I believe it goes to twice daily on a321 next year's.


Looks to be the case. The summer 2020 schedule has also been released, and it looks like JFKLAX goes back to 10x Mint (presumably last summer’s 11-12x was too much, or thEY expect the added BUR capacity to be better yielding).

Interestingly JFKSAN goes to 3x Mint. BOSSAN goes to a whopping 4x (2x Mint, 1x 321and 1x 320). BOSLAX goes to 5x Mint. BOSSEA goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320). BOSSFO goes to 6x (5x Mint, 1x 321).

Quite a bit of additional capacity on trunk transcon routes next summer, especially out of BOS. FLLLAX also reverts to 4x Mint and FLLSFO goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320).

BOSDEN goes to 3x and BOSPHX goes to 2x. Maybe BOS will get to 200 daily flights by summer.


I'm trying to figure out where they are getting the extra mint aircraft from.

JFK-LAS is still 2 out of 4 on mint.
same with BOS-LAS
JFK-SEA is 2 out of 2 mint still
JFK-SFO is 6 out of 6 still (the last flight has an awful arrival time)
at least JFK-LAX doesn't have that truly awful arrival time of 2 am anymore.

So if we just assume JFK-LAX frame went to FLL-LAX. Then, they seem to be getting 2 new mint configured aircraft next year for the additional frequency on JFK-SAN and BOS-LAX. Or maybe one more and they got even greater utilization from updated scheduling of existing flights. Either way, makes a lot of sense to add on both routes with AA giving up on the former and AS cutting back on the latter.

There was really a lot of adds with this update. BOS got a whole lot of adds as you said, both transcon and non-transcon
From what I can see YoY, additional flights to (not including the ones we already know from this year)
ACK
BUR (to daily from sub daily)
DEN
EWR
JFK
LAX
OAK (to daily from sub daily)
PBI
PDX (2x daily lasting longer)
PHX
RSW
SAN
SAV
SDQ
SEA
SJC
SMF (to daily now)
STI (2x daily)

The only reduction I saw were and some have already been changed.
JAX (which went from E90 to A320)
BWI
PIT (which got an A320)
TPA (upgauged)
Some of these changes are seasonal, but I'm guessing this is a net add of about new 10 flights

And speaking of EWR, I see 1 more flight to BOS, 2 more to FLL, 1 more to STI, 1 more to SDQ + SJU going to 2x daily now. Seems like they do have an additional gate now and FAA is at least allowing the additional flight to be scheduled.

JFK is more or less flat in terms of flights. One of the STI flights shifted to EWR. Again, a lot of SDQ capacity. POP got an extra flight, but PUJ lost one (expected I guess). CHS lost a flight.

JFK-LIR/SJO both became daily (unexpected, but good)

Somehow HPN added more flight. I don't know how they managed that.

Aside from that, FLL-JAX/LAS/SFO getting the extra flight seems to be permanent now.

MCO got additional flights to RIC/SDQ/SJU/BQN and lost flights to LGA/MBJ/HPN. LGA is from losing that slot. I think maybe they will add another flight to EWR-MCO to compensate for LGA/HPN.

SJU got additional capacity from BDL, EWR, MCO and TPA. I guess they are expecting things at PR to normalize by next year.

I wonder if this means no new city next summer out of BOS. That would be a disappointment to me. They seem to have used up all the planes freed up from MEX and Cuba. A lot of these adds are transcons.


Thanks for the summary!

I would be surprised if they are taking another Mint aircraft given some of their public statements, but not out of the realm of possibility. This would be the first Neo Mint-outfitted aircraft, unless they are just converting one of the ceo’s. Nonetheless it’s very impressive and B6 will further pull ahead in its BOS TCON dominance and JFK relevance vs DL. The BOS additions to SJC/PHX are especially intriguing, as is the fourth SAN frequency. They are actively making these markets much harder for DL to enter. Now if they could only add IAH/DFW frequency...

JFK is being optimized even further to print money and to cater to NY-based leisure/VFR travelers, including those with disposable income to throw around on trips to Costa Rica, California, etc. This is something B6 does exceedingly well and is a similar base that can be tapped for flights to London, Paris, Madrid, etc. in the coming years...

EWR certainly looks to be growing, although it would be nice to see a new destination. EWRBOS at 8x is pretty competitive. With these additions (some of which includes 321 capacity) B6 will essentially cement itself as #2 at EWR.

Glad to see the additional FLL domestic frequencies, but I’m a little bit concerned with the extension of some of the sub-daily Island flying. It seems to be a soft spot (with the exception of some markets, like Jamaica). I think some of these markets, like POS/BGI/AUA/GCM/SXM, are just begging for the A220. And might as well re-connect DTW/PIT/BWI/CLT and add SEA/DFW/IAH at some point.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1260
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:19 am

They finally add a daylight flight on BOS-PHX. They're going to have great coverage to the Bay Area and Northern California as a whole - 10 flights a day between SFO, SJC, OAK and SMF.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:14 am

B752OS wrote:
They finally add a daylight flight on BOS-PHX. They're going to have great coverage to the Bay Area and Northern California as a whole - 10 flights a day between SFO, SJC, OAK and SMF.

I agree that BOS-PHX schedule looks a lot better with the daylight flight.
Yeah, their schedule to Northern California is pretty impressive with these latest changes. I'm not sure all of these will hold up. I could see OAK/SJC have some off peak cuts if bookings don't look good.

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks for the summary!

I would be surprised if they are taking another Mint aircraft given some of their public statements, but not out of the realm of possibility. This would be the first Neo Mint-outfitted aircraft, unless they are just converting one of the ceo’s. Nonetheless it’s very impressive and B6 will further pull ahead in its BOS TCON dominance and JFK relevance vs DL. The BOS additions to SJC/PHX are especially intriguing, as is the fourth SAN frequency. They are actively making these markets much harder for DL to enter. Now if they could only add IAH/DFW frequency...

Totally agreed. IAH/DFW are the most obvious markets they need to add frequencies on. I think for SJC/PHX, A220 would make a lot of sense. It's a lot easier to sustain 2 A220s for the full year vs 2 A320s.

JFK is being optimized even further to print money and to cater to NY-based leisure/VFR travelers, including those with disposable income to throw around on trips to Costa Rica, California, etc. This is something B6 does exceedingly well and is a similar base that can be tapped for flights to London, Paris, Madrid, etc. in the coming years...

EWR certainly looks to be growing, although it would be nice to see a new destination. EWRBOS at 8x is pretty competitive. With these additions (some of which includes 321 capacity) B6 will essentially cement itself as #2 at EWR.

Glad to see the additional FLL domestic frequencies, but I’m a little bit concerned with the extension of some of the sub-daily Island flying. It seems to be a soft spot (with the exception of some markets, like Jamaica). I think some of these markets, like POS/BGI/AUA/GCM/SXM, are just begging for the A220. And might as well re-connect DTW/PIT/BWI/CLT and add SEA/DFW/IAH at some point.

Btw, I also notice FLL-BOG is going 2x daily and JFK-CTG is going to 10x weekly. Not bad to Colombia.

I think there might be something wrong with OAG thread and SJU. It seems to underestimate SJU by half. I see them with 4x daily on EWR-SJU with a A321. looks like EWR-SDQ getting an A321 also and same with EWR-STI. That's 33 daily flights in summer month. Quite a bit more than the mid 20s they had operated in the last couple of years that had no A321.

MCO-SJU is showing 7x daily with 1 A321, 5 A320s and a 1 E90. Quite a bit of upgauging over previous years.

BDL-SJU is showing 3x daily.

FLL-SJU at 6x daily.

BOS-SJU at 4x daily with 1 A321. That has to be an all time high, right?

JFK-SJU at 7x daily with 3 A321s. I think that's an all time high also.

TPA-SJU at 2x daily.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:02 pm

A couple of other things.

Just comparing YoY for July/August and factoring in the MEX/Cuba cancellations.

BOS looks to be up about 25 flights (with quite a few new A321s). Probably going first low to mid 160s to about 190 flights. They are getting pretty close to being gate constrained until C40-42,25 become available.
JFK factoring in JFK-CLT cancellation is up 2 or 3 flights. LGA is down 2 flights due to those 2 slots to WN. EWR is up about 8 flights. So NYC area is net up about 8 flights including more A321s.
FLL is about flat YoY when offsetting the Latam reductions with domestic additions.
MCO is up 3 or 4. A lot of that is additional PR capacity.
PBI is up 3 and RSW is up 2. TPA is down 1. Seems like B6 is more successful in South Florida vs central Florida.

On EWR, it looks like they are up to 36 flights daily this coming April. That's up about 5 or 6 YoY. From this schedule extension, they are up about 8 flights in July/August. Maybe they can get up to 40 flights in 2021 depending on the gate situation in the new terminal 1.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
A couple of other things.

Just comparing YoY for July/August and factoring in the MEX/Cuba cancellations.

BOS looks to be up about 25 flights (with quite a few new A321s). Probably going first low to mid 160s to about 190 flights. They are getting pretty close to being gate constrained until C40-42,25 become available.
JFK factoring in JFK-CLT cancellation is up 2 or 3 flights. LGA is down 2 flights due to those 2 slots to WN. EWR is up about 8 flights. So NYC area is net up about 8 flights including more A321s.
FLL is about flat YoY when offsetting the Latam reductions with domestic additions.
MCO is up 3 or 4. A lot of that is additional PR capacity.
PBI is up 3 and RSW is up 2. TPA is down 1. Seems like B6 is more successful in South Florida vs central Florida.

On EWR, it looks like they are up to 36 flights daily this coming April. That's up about 5 or 6 YoY. From this schedule extension, they are up about 8 flights in July/August. Maybe they can get up to 40 flights in 2021 depending on the gate situation in the new terminal 1.


Wow, those BOS numbers are really something else. The B6 corp sales team will have a lot to show existing and prospective clients heading into year-end. If you think about it in year-over-year terms, they can point to increased frequency / options to major business markets like DC, LA Basin, SF Basin, Charlotte, Denver, etc and also point to its #1 or #2 presence in many of these markets. DL can't say the same, unless they plan on another round of BOS additions in the near future (although I think gate space may be constrained for them too).

As much as I enjoy seeing B6 grow at EWR by playing to their strengths, I really wish they would give UA a run for their money and start up LAX/SFO. This would also give them a competitive advantage over AA/UA/DL who can only advertise nonstop service to JFK or EWR, but not both.

I think B6 will end up as #2 at FLL (behind NK) unless something new is announced soon, or unless their new Basic Economy product can sufficiently compete for some of those thinner markets where they compete with NK/WN or Caribbean Airlines (i.e. FLL-AUA/GCM/POS/BGI). Aren't they expected to pick up 5 more gates sometime soon?

PBI/RSW are, in away, great mini focus cities for B6. I wouldn't be surprised to see PVD-RSW added sometime soon, and perhaps PBI/RSW-BUF, RDU, or even LAX (once the A220 comes online).
 
B752OS
Posts: 1260
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:41 pm

How does B6 perform in PVD? It would be nice to see them expand in PVD to places outside of Florida.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3199
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:59 pm

B752OS wrote:
How does B6 perform in PVD? It would be nice to see them expand in PVD to places outside of Florida.


To where though? JFK wont be viable unless they come into 50+ more slots, DCA would have been an option previously but the abandoned that approach. The only non-Florida routes I can think of would be something like LAX or SJU or maybe a weekly only for a VFR place like SDQ.

PBI seems to have done well out of the gate which should hopefully give them confidence to try more, and perhaps finally add the 2nd FLL. I believe PVD-FLL is one the highest yielding northeast-FLL routes outside of BOS and like 1-2 others.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
B752OS
Posts: 1260
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:40 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
B752OS wrote:
How does B6 perform in PVD? It would be nice to see them expand in PVD to places outside of Florida.


To where though? JFK wont be viable unless they come into 50+ more slots, DCA would have been an option previously but the abandoned that approach. The only non-Florida routes I can think of would be something like LAX or SJU or maybe a weekly only for a VFR place like SDQ.

PBI seems to have done well out of the gate which should hopefully give them confidence to try more, and perhaps finally add the 2nd FLL. I believe PVD-FLL is one the highest yielding northeast-FLL routes outside of BOS and like 1-2 others.


The West Coast. Namely LAX like you said. JetBlue has (obviously) a strong following in The Boston metro area and presumably the Providence metro area as well. Why not give PVD-LAX a shot? I don't buy the argument that it will hurt BOS-LAX. Will it steal some pax? Sure, but it's not as if it will make a large dent.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3199
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:55 pm

B752OS wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
B752OS wrote:
How does B6 perform in PVD? It would be nice to see them expand in PVD to places outside of Florida.


To where though? JFK wont be viable unless they come into 50+ more slots, DCA would have been an option previously but the abandoned that approach. The only non-Florida routes I can think of would be something like LAX or SJU or maybe a weekly only for a VFR place like SDQ.

PBI seems to have done well out of the gate which should hopefully give them confidence to try more, and perhaps finally add the 2nd FLL. I believe PVD-FLL is one the highest yielding northeast-FLL routes outside of BOS and like 1-2 others.


The West Coast. Namely LAX like you said. JetBlue has (obviously) a strong following in The Boston metro area and presumably the Providence metro area as well. Why not give PVD-LAX a shot? I don't buy the argument that it will hurt BOS-LAX. Will it steal some pax? Sure, but it's not as if it will make a large dent.


PVD-LAX had over 400 daily O&D passengers (200+ PDEW) back when BOS-LAX was only 6x daily around 2000 or so
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:55 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Looks to be the case. The summer 2020 schedule has also been released, and it looks like JFKLAX goes back to 10x Mint (presumably last summer’s 11-12x was too much, or thEY expect the added BUR capacity to be better yielding).

Interestingly JFKSAN goes to 3x Mint. BOSSAN goes to a whopping 4x (2x Mint, 1x 321and 1x 320). BOSLAX goes to 5x Mint. BOSSEA goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320). BOSSFO goes to 6x (5x Mint, 1x 321).

Quite a bit of additional capacity on trunk transcon routes next summer, especially out of BOS. FLLLAX also reverts to 4x Mint and FLLSFO goes to 3x (2x Mint, 1x 320).

BOSDEN goes to 3x and BOSPHX goes to 2x. Maybe BOS will get to 200 daily flights by summer.


I'm trying to figure out where they are getting the extra mint aircraft from.

JFK-LAS is still 2 out of 4 on mint.
same with BOS-LAS
JFK-SEA is 2 out of 2 mint still
JFK-SFO is 6 out of 6 still (the last flight has an awful arrival time)
at least JFK-LAX doesn't have that truly awful arrival time of 2 am anymore.

So if we just assume JFK-LAX frame went to FLL-LAX. Then, they seem to be getting 2 new mint configured aircraft next year for the additional frequency on JFK-SAN and BOS-LAX. Or maybe one more and they got even greater utilization from updated scheduling of existing flights. Either way, makes a lot of sense to add on both routes with AA giving up on the former and AS cutting back on the latter.

There was really a lot of adds with this update. BOS got a whole lot of adds as you said, both transcon and non-transcon
From what I can see YoY, additional flights to (not including the ones we already know from this year)
ACK
BUR (to daily from sub daily)
DEN
EWR
JFK
LAX
OAK (to daily from sub daily)
PBI
PDX (2x daily lasting longer)
PHX
RSW
SAN
SAV
SDQ
SEA
SJC
SMF (to daily now)
STI (2x daily)

The only reduction I saw were and some have already been changed.
JAX (which went from E90 to A320)
BWI
PIT (which got an A320)
TPA (upgauged)
Some of these changes are seasonal, but I'm guessing this is a net add of about new 10 flights

And speaking of EWR, I see 1 more flight to BOS, 2 more to FLL, 1 more to STI, 1 more to SDQ + SJU going to 2x daily now. Seems like they do have an additional gate now and FAA is at least allowing the additional flight to be scheduled.

JFK is more or less flat in terms of flights. One of the STI flights shifted to EWR. Again, a lot of SDQ capacity. POP got an extra flight, but PUJ lost one (expected I guess). CHS lost a flight.

JFK-LIR/SJO both became daily (unexpected, but good)

Somehow HPN added more flight. I don't know how they managed that.

Aside from that, FLL-JAX/LAS/SFO getting the extra flight seems to be permanent now.

MCO got additional flights to RIC/SDQ/SJU/BQN and lost flights to LGA/MBJ/HPN. LGA is from losing that slot. I think maybe they will add another flight to EWR-MCO to compensate for LGA/HPN.

SJU got additional capacity from BDL, EWR, MCO and TPA. I guess they are expecting things at PR to normalize by next year.

I wonder if this means no new city next summer out of BOS. That would be a disappointment to me. They seem to have used up all the planes freed up from MEX and Cuba. A lot of these adds are transcons.


Thanks for the summary!

I would be surprised if they are taking another Mint aircraft given some of their public statements, but not out of the realm of possibility. This would be the first Neo Mint-outfitted aircraft, unless they are just converting one of the ceo’s. Nonetheless it’s very impressive and B6 will further pull ahead in its BOS TCON dominance and JFK relevance vs DL. The BOS additions to SJC/PHX are especially intriguing, as is the fourth SAN frequency. They are actively making these markets much harder for DL to enter. Now if they could only add IAH/DFW frequency...

JFK is being optimized even further to print money and to cater to NY-based leisure/VFR travelers, including those with disposable income to throw around on trips to Costa Rica, California, etc. This is something B6 does exceedingly well and is a similar base that can be tapped for flights to London, Paris, Madrid, etc. in the coming years...

EWR certainly looks to be growing, although it would be nice to see a new destination. EWRBOS at 8x is pretty competitive. With these additions (some of which includes 321 capacity) B6 will essentially cement itself as #2 at EWR.

Glad to see the additional FLL domestic frequencies, but I’m a little bit concerned with the extension of some of the sub-daily Island flying. It seems to be a soft spot (with the exception of some markets, like Jamaica). I think some of these markets, like POS/BGI/AUA/GCM/SXM, are just begging for the A220. And might as well re-connect DTW/PIT/BWI/CLT and add SEA/DFW/IAH at some point.

FLL-BGI/AUA/POS/etc. on A220s? O...k.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I'm trying to figure out where they are getting the extra mint aircraft from.

JFK-LAS is still 2 out of 4 on mint.
same with BOS-LAS
JFK-SEA is 2 out of 2 mint still
JFK-SFO is 6 out of 6 still (the last flight has an awful arrival time)
at least JFK-LAX doesn't have that truly awful arrival time of 2 am anymore.

So if we just assume JFK-LAX frame went to FLL-LAX. Then, they seem to be getting 2 new mint configured aircraft next year for the additional frequency on JFK-SAN and BOS-LAX. Or maybe one more and they got even greater utilization from updated scheduling of existing flights. Either way, makes a lot of sense to add on both routes with AA giving up on the former and AS cutting back on the latter.

There was really a lot of adds with this update. BOS got a whole lot of adds as you said, both transcon and non-transcon
From what I can see YoY, additional flights to (not including the ones we already know from this year)
ACK
BUR (to daily from sub daily)
DEN
EWR
JFK
LAX
OAK (to daily from sub daily)
PBI
PDX (2x daily lasting longer)
PHX
RSW
SAN
SAV
SDQ
SEA
SJC
SMF (to daily now)
STI (2x daily)

The only reduction I saw were and some have already been changed.
JAX (which went from E90 to A320)
BWI
PIT (which got an A320)
TPA (upgauged)
Some of these changes are seasonal, but I'm guessing this is a net add of about new 10 flights

And speaking of EWR, I see 1 more flight to BOS, 2 more to FLL, 1 more to STI, 1 more to SDQ + SJU going to 2x daily now. Seems like they do have an additional gate now and FAA is at least allowing the additional flight to be scheduled.

JFK is more or less flat in terms of flights. One of the STI flights shifted to EWR. Again, a lot of SDQ capacity. POP got an extra flight, but PUJ lost one (expected I guess). CHS lost a flight.

JFK-LIR/SJO both became daily (unexpected, but good)

Somehow HPN added more flight. I don't know how they managed that.

Aside from that, FLL-JAX/LAS/SFO getting the extra flight seems to be permanent now.

MCO got additional flights to RIC/SDQ/SJU/BQN and lost flights to LGA/MBJ/HPN. LGA is from losing that slot. I think maybe they will add another flight to EWR-MCO to compensate for LGA/HPN.

SJU got additional capacity from BDL, EWR, MCO and TPA. I guess they are expecting things at PR to normalize by next year.

I wonder if this means no new city next summer out of BOS. That would be a disappointment to me. They seem to have used up all the planes freed up from MEX and Cuba. A lot of these adds are transcons.


Thanks for the summary!

I would be surprised if they are taking another Mint aircraft given some of their public statements, but not out of the realm of possibility. This would be the first Neo Mint-outfitted aircraft, unless they are just converting one of the ceo’s. Nonetheless it’s very impressive and B6 will further pull ahead in its BOS TCON dominance and JFK relevance vs DL. The BOS additions to SJC/PHX are especially intriguing, as is the fourth SAN frequency. They are actively making these markets much harder for DL to enter. Now if they could only add IAH/DFW frequency...

JFK is being optimized even further to print money and to cater to NY-based leisure/VFR travelers, including those with disposable income to throw around on trips to Costa Rica, California, etc. This is something B6 does exceedingly well and is a similar base that can be tapped for flights to London, Paris, Madrid, etc. in the coming years...

EWR certainly looks to be growing, although it would be nice to see a new destination. EWRBOS at 8x is pretty competitive. With these additions (some of which includes 321 capacity) B6 will essentially cement itself as #2 at EWR.

Glad to see the additional FLL domestic frequencies, but I’m a little bit concerned with the extension of some of the sub-daily Island flying. It seems to be a soft spot (with the exception of some markets, like Jamaica). I think some of these markets, like POS/BGI/AUA/GCM/SXM, are just begging for the A220. And might as well re-connect DTW/PIT/BWI/CLT and add SEA/DFW/IAH at some point.

FLL-BGI/AUA/POS/etc. on A220s? O...k.


Haha....what's the issue with the A220 in these markets? The A320 is too much plane (at least given B6's current fare structure / FLL network).
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:40 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks for the summary!

I would be surprised if they are taking another Mint aircraft given some of their public statements, but not out of the realm of possibility. This would be the first Neo Mint-outfitted aircraft, unless they are just converting one of the ceo’s. Nonetheless it’s very impressive and B6 will further pull ahead in its BOS TCON dominance and JFK relevance vs DL. The BOS additions to SJC/PHX are especially intriguing, as is the fourth SAN frequency. They are actively making these markets much harder for DL to enter. Now if they could only add IAH/DFW frequency...

JFK is being optimized even further to print money and to cater to NY-based leisure/VFR travelers, including those with disposable income to throw around on trips to Costa Rica, California, etc. This is something B6 does exceedingly well and is a similar base that can be tapped for flights to London, Paris, Madrid, etc. in the coming years...

EWR certainly looks to be growing, although it would be nice to see a new destination. EWRBOS at 8x is pretty competitive. With these additions (some of which includes 321 capacity) B6 will essentially cement itself as #2 at EWR.

Glad to see the additional FLL domestic frequencies, but I’m a little bit concerned with the extension of some of the sub-daily Island flying. It seems to be a soft spot (with the exception of some markets, like Jamaica). I think some of these markets, like POS/BGI/AUA/GCM/SXM, are just begging for the A220. And might as well re-connect DTW/PIT/BWI/CLT and add SEA/DFW/IAH at some point.

FLL-BGI/AUA/POS/etc. on A220s? O...k.


Haha....what's the issue with the A220 in these markets? The A320 is too much plane (at least given B6's current fare structure / FLL network).

They aren’t big enough. Those are markets that require a larger, more dense plane e.g. A320, B737. Flying an A220 on FLL-POS would be like flying them on JFK-FLL.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:23 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
FLL-BGI/AUA/POS/etc. on A220s? O...k.


Haha....what's the issue with the A220 in these markets? The A320 is too much plane (at least given B6's current fare structure / FLL network).

They aren’t big enough. Those are markets that require a larger, more dense plane e.g. A320, B737. Flying an A220 on FLL-POS would be like flying them on JFK-FLL.


I agree, but B6 has had trouble filling up A320's (at least at profitable fare levels), so much so that they have reduced some of this flying to sub-daily. I think they have to try something to lower costs / increase RASM, otherwise they risk being irrelevant in these markets (at least compared to AA/NK).

It's actually quite dumbfounding how B6 has struggled in some of these markets. On paper they make a lot of sense: lots of demand in markets where B6 traditionally does very well (FLL and the Islands). I'm thinking that the issue is more or less (1) most of the traffic is based closer to MIA than to FLL, and (2) those who do trek up to FLL may be more fare conscious, and therefore choose to fly (lower cost) NK instead of B6.

Interesting to get your thoughts on this, as based on different threads you seem to have significant knowledge of the makeup of various Caribbean diasporas / travel patterns in the South Florida area.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:32 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
FLL-BGI/AUA/POS/etc. on A220s? O...k.


Haha....what's the issue with the A220 in these markets? The A320 is too much plane (at least given B6's current fare structure / FLL network).

They aren’t big enough. Those are markets that require a larger, more dense plane e.g. A320, B737. Flying an A220 on FLL-POS would be like flying them on JFK-FLL.

that thinking is based on the assumption larger planes have lower CASM. A220 is great because it has CASM advantage over current generation of A320/B737 and about the same CASM as A320NEO/B738MAX. Anytime you can get a smaller aircraft with the same CASM as your competitor, you are doing great. And if we are comparing B6 on A220 vs AA on B737-800, B6 will have a pretty large CASM advantage. The problem is of course AA can fill its plane with a lot of connections and MIA probably has higher yielding O&D traffic than FLL. And on the flip side, B6 A220 will have significantly higher cost than a NK A320NEO. That's where they really need to be able to capture a premium. Having fewer seat (that's more comforable) in both case will help.

B752OS wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
B752OS wrote:
How does B6 perform in PVD? It would be nice to see them expand in PVD to places outside of Florida.


To where though? JFK wont be viable unless they come into 50+ more slots, DCA would have been an option previously but the abandoned that approach. The only non-Florida routes I can think of would be something like LAX or SJU or maybe a weekly only for a VFR place like SDQ.

PBI seems to have done well out of the gate which should hopefully give them confidence to try more, and perhaps finally add the 2nd FLL. I believe PVD-FLL is one the highest yielding northeast-FLL routes outside of BOS and like 1-2 others.


The West Coast. Namely LAX like you said. JetBlue has (obviously) a strong following in The Boston metro area and presumably the Providence metro area as well. Why not give PVD-LAX a shot? I don't buy the argument that it will hurt BOS-LAX. Will it steal some pax? Sure, but it's not as if it will make a large dent.

PVD-PBI in Q2 didn't do as well as Q1. I think PVD could follow BDL playbook with service to SJU and seasonal service to RSW/MSY. LAX out of both BDL/PVD could work with A220. Really depends on how they view LAX down the line. If by 2022, they have 5 gates at LAX and looking to expand, I could certainly see them trying thin transcon routes that would really only work well on A220-300. After all, they now fly to SFO/OAK/SJC/SMF/LAX/BUR/LGB out of BOS. Not that crazy to try LAX-BDL/PVD/PBI/RSW. Having more loyalties in areas around PVD/BDL will also help them out on transcon and TATL markets.

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Wow, those BOS numbers are really something else. The B6 corp sales team will have a lot to show existing and prospective clients heading into year-end. If you think about it in year-over-year terms, they can point to increased frequency / options to major business markets like DC, LA Basin, SF Basin, Charlotte, Denver, etc and also point to its #1 or #2 presence in many of these markets. DL can't say the same, unless they plan on another round of BOS additions in the near future (although I think gate space may be constrained for them too).

I really hope these all work out. Especially a A320 + A321 to SJC. A lot of capacity. They are really putting 90% the eggs in BOS.

I think B6 will end up as #2 at FLL (behind NK) unless something new is announced soon, or unless their new Basic Economy product can sufficiently compete for some of those thinner markets where they compete with NK/WN or Caribbean Airlines (i.e. FLL-AUA/GCM/POS/BGI). Aren't they expected to pick up 5 more gates sometime soon?

Totally. FLL has been stagnant recently. NK with their low CASM is a huge problem. But A220 will give them a chance to succeed in a lot of these markets. Hard for those 150 seat A320s to compete with 227 seat A321NEO unless they get a huge premium. But 200 seat A321NEO vs 227 seat A321NEO or 140 seat A220 vs 145 seat A319 should be a lot closer in cost. From the investor call, I think there might even be more gates down the road.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:43 pm

tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Haha....what's the issue with the A220 in these markets? The A320 is too much plane (at least given B6's current fare structure / FLL network).

They aren’t big enough. Those are markets that require a larger, more dense plane e.g. A320, B737. Flying an A220 on FLL-POS would be like flying them on JFK-FLL.

that thinking is based on the assumption larger planes have lower CASM. A220 is great because it has CASM advantage over current generation of A320/B737 and about the same CASM as A320NEO/B738MAX. Anytime you can get a smaller aircraft with the same CASM as your competitor, you are doing great. And if we are comparing B6 on A220 vs AA on B737-800, B6 will have a pretty large CASM advantage. The problem is of course AA can fill its plane with a lot of connections and MIA probably has higher yielding O&D traffic than FLL. And on the flip side, B6 A220 will have significantly higher cost than a NK A320NEO. That's where they really need to be able to capture a premium. Having fewer seat (that's more comforable) in both case will help.

B752OS wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

To where though? JFK wont be viable unless they come into 50+ more slots, DCA would have been an option previously but the abandoned that approach. The only non-Florida routes I can think of would be something like LAX or SJU or maybe a weekly only for a VFR place like SDQ.

PBI seems to have done well out of the gate which should hopefully give them confidence to try more, and perhaps finally add the 2nd FLL. I believe PVD-FLL is one the highest yielding northeast-FLL routes outside of BOS and like 1-2 others.


The West Coast. Namely LAX like you said. JetBlue has (obviously) a strong following in The Boston metro area and presumably the Providence metro area as well. Why not give PVD-LAX a shot? I don't buy the argument that it will hurt BOS-LAX. Will it steal some pax? Sure, but it's not as if it will make a large dent.

PVD-PBI in Q2 didn't do as well as Q1. I think PVD could follow BDL playbook with service to SJU and seasonal service to RSW/MSY. LAX out of both BDL/PVD could work with A220. Really depends on how they view LAX down the line. If by 2022, they have 5 gates at LAX and looking to expand, I could certainly see them trying thin transcon routes that would really only work well on A220-300. After all, they now fly to SFO/OAK/SJC/SMF/LAX/BUR/LGB out of BOS. Not that crazy to try LAX-BDL/PVD/PBI/RSW. Having more loyalties in areas around PVD/BDL will also help them out on transcon and TATL markets.

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Wow, those BOS numbers are really something else. The B6 corp sales team will have a lot to show existing and prospective clients heading into year-end. If you think about it in year-over-year terms, they can point to increased frequency / options to major business markets like DC, LA Basin, SF Basin, Charlotte, Denver, etc and also point to its #1 or #2 presence in many of these markets. DL can't say the same, unless they plan on another round of BOS additions in the near future (although I think gate space may be constrained for them too).

I really hope these all work out. Especially a A320 + A321 to SJC. A lot of capacity. They are really putting 90% the eggs in BOS.

I think B6 will end up as #2 at FLL (behind NK) unless something new is announced soon, or unless their new Basic Economy product can sufficiently compete for some of those thinner markets where they compete with NK/WN or Caribbean Airlines (i.e. FLL-AUA/GCM/POS/BGI). Aren't they expected to pick up 5 more gates sometime soon?

Totally. FLL has been stagnant recently. NK with their low CASM is a huge problem. But A220 will give them a chance to succeed in a lot of these markets. Hard for those 150 seat A320s to compete with 227 seat A321NEO unless they get a huge premium. But 200 seat A321NEO vs 227 seat A321NEO or 140 seat A220 vs 145 seat A319 should be a lot closer in cost. From the investor call, I think there might even be more gates down the road.



But I don’t think the NK issue in FL is a bad as you think. JetBlue has been growing FLL just fine and I think it is the more profitable hub. NK has always been there and has always had lower casm. I think they are competing for totally different passengers. Yeah FLL has slowed down a bit but that terminal is crazy they need more room.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:05 am

I think I'm gonna downgrade my JetBlue Plus Card next year.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:28 am

It looks like B6 rolled out its new fare structure. Some key differences:
-Fare types went from 3 to 2: Blue and Blue Extra
-Neither fare type comes with a free checked bag (which is different from previous structure)
-Both fare types allow free seat selection and carry on bags (which is same as previous structure but different from other airlines’ basic economy offering)
-Blue Extra comes with no change or cancellation fees (I don’t think any other airline does this - they just flat out disallow changes or cancellations on Basic Economy tickets)
-Blue Extra comes with priority boarding and Even More Speed (where available)

Blue Extra comes at $70 more than Blue.

I don’t see any differences on TrueBlue point accruals so far, or any difference in checked bag fee.

At first glance it looks like B6 is taking a different trek than other airlines’ Basic Economy fare structures, particularly since they aren’t really taking anything away at the lower fare level except for a less desirable boarding group.

I think the biggest change vs previous fare options is that checked bags will now no longer be included in any fare option.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6073
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:17 pm

There is some missing information in that last post
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:59 pm

Here is the article on this from thepointsguy.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-r ... et-rivals/
Their fare classes for me at least got more complicated. I guess if you are mosaic, you should at minimum book Blue, or else you will loose all the mosaic benefits. If you are not mosaic, this should encourage more people to book Blue Extra, since they'd get no change/Cancellation/SDC/Standby fees.

I think Blue Plus is to allow them to be competitive in those Latin American markets where competitors offer free luggage.

Need some clarification on what this means for credit card holders.

Looks like the follow for Blue Basic:
- Mosaic lose most of their benefits
- no free seat selection until 24 hours before boarding. Can select seat for a fee
- 1 point per dollar spent vs 3 point per dollar spent on other fare classes. 2 point per dollar spent vs 6 point per dollar spent if booking on JetBlue website.
- No changes allowed.

For regular non mosaic members, this doesn't look that bad for me. I'd still book at least Blue, but I can see a lot of people will go with Blue Basic. If you consider their biggest competitor in this fare class to be DL/AA's BE and NK, this is a little better than that (at least it allows free seat selection 24 hours before flight and free carry-on luggage)

So for most flights, we will have Blue Basic, Blue and Blue Extra. JetBlue is really looking to collect those check-in luggage fees.
 
mia
Posts: 888
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:40 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:09 pm

I am reviewing the email sent from Jetblue. Why would Blue Extra not include a checked back when Blue Plus does? I wonder how this affects JetBlue credit card holder benefits.
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:27 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
It looks like B6 rolled out its new fare structure. Some key differences:
-Fare types went from 3 to 2: Blue and Blue Extra
-Neither fare type comes with a free checked bag (which is different from previous structure)
-Both fare types allow free seat selection and carry on bags (which is same as previous structure but different from other airlines’ basic economy offering)
-Blue Extra comes with no change or cancellation fees (I don’t think any other airline does this - they just flat out disallow changes or cancellations on Basic Economy tickets)
-Blue Extra comes with priority boarding and Even More Speed (where available)

Blue Extra comes at $70 more than Blue.

I don’t see any differences on TrueBlue point accruals so far, or any difference in checked bag fee.

At first glance it looks like B6 is taking a different trek than other airlines’ Basic Economy fare structures, particularly since they aren’t really taking anything away at the lower fare level except for a less desirable boarding group.

I think the biggest change vs previous fare options is that checked bags will now no longer be included in any fare option.

So they just downgraded their higher fare class and left the lowest level on as is?
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:57 pm

mia wrote:
I am reviewing the email sent from Jetblue. Why would Blue Extra not include a checked back when Blue Plus does?


As tphuang suggested above, Blue Plus won't be offered on most routes.

For most routes, you'll be comparing Blue Basic, Blue, and Blue Extra, none of which come with free bags.

mia wrote:
I wonder how this affects JetBlue credit card holder benefits.


Why would it affect them at all?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:17 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
So they just downgraded their higher fare class and left the lowest level on as is?

They now have included free cancellation, Changes, SDC and Standby as part of their highest fare class + early boarding and even more speed in exchange for 1 free checked bags. For most business travellers, this is actually a huge plus. It's kind of telling that Blue Plus is kept around only for Latin America, where free checked bags for VFR crowd is a lot more important.
So basically we have
Blue Basic - their new BE
Blue - no change
Blue Plus - Available only to Latin American markets
Blue Extra - New
I think the last one is made to hope to capture more business crowd.

If you want free checked in luggage, you need their credit card.
 
dtremit
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:22 pm

tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
So they just downgraded their higher fare class and left the lowest level on as is?

They now have included free cancellation, Changes, SDC and Standby as part of their highest fare class + early boarding and even more speed in exchange for 1 free checked bags.


To be clear, Blue Flex fares included all of those, plus two checked bags and extra points earning.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5459
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:26 pm

dtremit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
So they just downgraded their higher fare class and left the lowest level on as is?

They now have included free cancellation, Changes, SDC and Standby as part of their highest fare class + early boarding and even more speed in exchange for 1 free checked bags.


To be clear, Blue Flex fares included all of those, plus two checked bags and extra points earning.


I see what he was saying now. Yep, that's the case. According to them, only 1% of people were picking that fare class. I guess they figured that the people that really care about free cancellation and changes and standby are likely to business passengers who care more about speed rather than how many bags they check in. So this downgrade should also lower the fare difference vs Blue and encourage more buy ups for ff. Especially those who probably already carry JetBlue credit card.

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