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tphuang
Posts: 5212
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:42 pm

Routesonline have now caught on to the fact that B6 is making both JFK-SJO/LIR daily for next summer. SJO
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ce-in-s20/
flight times are basically unchanged vs May. They sure love these evening departures out of JFK and early morning arrivals into JFK for VFR flights. LIR has a schedule that makes sense for vacationers.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Routesonline have now caught on to the fact that B6 is making both JFK-SJO/LIR daily for next summer. SJO
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ce-in-s20/
flight times are basically unchanged vs May. They sure love these evening departures out of JFK and early morning arrivals into JFK for VFR flights. LIR has a schedule that makes sense for vacationers.


Any chance of BOS getting a flight to SJO? I remember seeing data that shows it’s a major unserved market that can sustain a flight, but I could be wrong. Also, the LIR flight has done very well in BOS, but I believe they are only 1x weekly- is there an opportunity for b6 to increase frequency?
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:47 am

Central America in general is deserving of more presence from the Boston market. The amount of Guatemalans, Salvadoreans and Hondurans in the Providence-Boston area is supportively high. B6 already having the lock on the New England scene would make several of these routes winners from the gate.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:29 am

BlueBaller wrote:
Central America in general is deserving of more presence from the Boston market. The amount of Guatemalans, Salvadoreans and Hondurans in the Providence-Boston area is supportively high. B6 already having the lock on the New England scene would make several of these routes winners from the gate.


It’s not though. Boston-Central America/Mexico (non VFR) has been tried many times over the past ~15 years to zero success.
a.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:26 am

I have to wonder if B6 will ever attempt PTY from either JFK or FLL, or is CM's 21-28x weekly too much from JFK, even if this were to be made a Mint route?

As for schedule, afternoon departures to LatAm and evening back make a lot of sense.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5212
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:33 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Routesonline have now caught on to the fact that B6 is making both JFK-SJO/LIR daily for next summer. SJO
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ce-in-s20/
flight times are basically unchanged vs May. They sure love these evening departures out of JFK and early morning arrivals into JFK for VFR flights. LIR has a schedule that makes sense for vacationers.


Any chance of BOS getting a flight to SJO? I remember seeing data that shows it’s a major unserved market that can sustain a flight, but I could be wrong. Also, the LIR flight has done very well in BOS, but I believe they are only 1x weekly- is there an opportunity for b6 to increase frequency?


They do have a habit of trying out every BlueCity that they think might work out of BOS no matter how unlikely they might work (like PSP/HAV/BUR/HDN for example). I could see them trying a seasonal 2 or 3 weekly schedule here if JFK-SJO does well.

As for other central American cities like SAL/GUA/SAP, my guess is they'd at least enter one of these cities in the next few years from JFK. Most likely SAL. And if the number look good, then they will try FLL daily or 3x weekly. BOS would only be approached on a seasonal basis like what they are doing with PAP.

Given the gate resource they have in 2 years, they are going to be able to try some routes that might seem unexpected.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:12 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder if B6 will ever attempt PTY from either JFK or FLL, or is CM's 21-28x weekly too much from JFK, even if this were to be made a Mint route?

As for schedule, afternoon departures to LatAm and evening back make a lot of sense.

PTY question does bring to mind what else B6 could add to Latin America in the near future. Once they start flying to Europe, I think they won't be able to add more destinations out of JFK due to slot constraints. And in general, it's hard to see them expand as much in Latin America when half of the A321 deliveries are for TATL missions. So, what could they still add before 2021.

So far this year, they've already added JFK-PTP/SJO/GEO/GYE and cut JFK-CLT/LRM. What other destinations are in place? The safest routes are probably the VFR routes. There is a really a limit to how much leisure capacity the new york market could handle. JetBlue already flies to vast majority of island leisure destinations. On the surface, PTY should be a good market to enter from both JFK/FLL due to the amount of demand there. But I think they can start off with at most 1 flight a day, which would be a big disadvantage to all the flights CM has. I still think JFK-PTY can work, but there is probably better places for JFK slots to be used. JFK-BOG is in a similar situation to JFK-PTY except with DL presence. They can potential try BOS-BOG down the road once they have all the TATL flights going. Hard to see it succeeding without a lot of connection.

If we look at VFR markets, I think SAL is the most obvious add. If A321NEO can make it, a flight to UIO to complement GYE would make sense. GUA/SAP/MGA are all possibilities, but they are low yielding markets that require a lof of missionary connections to work. I'm not sure that's the type of traffic that B6 does well with. JFK-GUA is probably the most likely of the 3, but SAL from both JFK/FLL seems to be more workable.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:24 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
Central America in general is deserving of more presence from the Boston market. The amount of Guatemalans, Salvadoreans and Hondurans in the Providence-Boston area is supportively high. B6 already having the lock on the New England scene would make several of these routes winners from the gate.


It’s not though. Boston-Central America/Mexico (non VFR) has been tried many times over the past ~15 years to zero success.


CM would disagree with that statement. BOS-PTY does fine due to Hub of the Americas but I think you were referring to points North.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:21 am

adamh8297 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
Central America in general is deserving of more presence from the Boston market. The amount of Guatemalans, Salvadoreans and Hondurans in the Providence-Boston area is supportively high. B6 already having the lock on the New England scene would make several of these routes winners from the gate.


It’s not though. Boston-Central America/Mexico (non VFR) has been tried many times over the past ~15 years to zero success.


CM would disagree with that statement. BOS-PTY does fine due to Hub of the Americas but I think you were referring to points North.


No, CM would not disagree. PTY is a major Latin America connecting hub with significant feed. There is no local market. It’s Boston connections to Brazil largely.
a.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:21 am

With the A321LR, Brazilian expansion, with AD feed, could be in the cards, and with DL having bought a stake in LATAM which will take LATAM out of oneworld effective the start of the NW20 schedule, to South America from South Florida is now wide-open. Currently, AD flies to BEL, CNF, REC, and VCP from FLL...might that be a jumping-off point for A321LR service to Brazil to places like MAO or GIG, or even GRU? Depending on the range of the A321XLR, that could make EZE and SCL within reach as well from FLL, along with other markets for which B6 could offer a superior product compared to American, like VVI or secondary Colombia on the A321neo.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:33 pm

OAG thread this week
B6 BDL-PBI MAR 1.2>2[1.0] APR 1.0>1.9[1.0]
B6 BDL-RSW MAR 1.2>2[1.0] APR 0.9>1.9[1.0]
B6 BOS-EWR MAY 6>7[4]
B6 BOS-RSW APR 6>7[8]
B6 BOS-TPA APR 5>6[5]
B6 EWR-MCO MAY 5>6[5]
B6 FLL-LAS MAR 1.2>2[1.0] APR 1.1>2[1.0]
B6 FLL-PUJ MAY 1.0>0.4[1.4]

a couple of things. Good to see EWR adds extended into May. Still a little odd that EWR-FLL is only running at 4x in May. Now in May, they are running 8x BOS, 6x EWR, 4x FLL, 2x PBI, 1x RSW, 2x TPA, 3x SJU, 2x STI, 1x SDQ -> 29 flights (up probably 4 to 5 YoY). Given their recent adds to ACK/MVY, I'm really surprised they have not yet announced EWR-ACK/MVY. This leaves June still on last year's schedule. i'm sure that will change soon. Overall, a lot of adds at EWR. I'd like to see them up capacity a little bit on EWR-FLL. They really should be capable of more here.

BDL-PBI/RSW 2x daily extension is great. Both are very profitable markets. BDL-FLL is still at 2x daily. and BDL-MCO is still at 3x daily for those month.

Also, good to see them going to 7x on BOS-RSW (5x A321 + 2x A320) and 6x on TPA(2xA321 + 4xA320) for the peak Florida traveling month of April. Should be net increase in capacity for both markets. April is typically B6's busiest month out of BOS.

FLL-LAS 2x daily seems to be continuing through most of the year. That's good to see. Really interesting that WN with focus city on both end is so weak here.

What I've seen since MEX/Cuba cut is a bunch of adds in Winter month up to April and then July/Aug additions. I'm sure with these adds, they have used up their freed up capacity for those month. I'm expecting some more additions in May/June still.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:33 pm

With the BDL-RSW/PBI adds in this week's update and HPN-RSW adds last week, I want to take a look at the profitability of these types of flights are at secondary Northeast airports compared to BOS. Keep in mind that Q2 was a really good quarter for BOS this year and B6 normally prints money on the BOS-Florida market.

First FLL,
Route Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # FlightsLF Yield
BDLFLL 1173 B6 40797 197.86 197.52 310.06 99.70% 152.3 321 83.44% 164.81
HPNFLL 1097 B6 35826 202.99 202.98 239.93 99.97% 126.6 340 83.23% 168.94
PVDFLL 1188 B6 23293 200.27 200.25 225.65 99.90% 150.7 182 84.95% 170.11
ORHFLL 1211 B6 15211 180.47 180.42 217.46 99.85% 100 180 84.51% 152.46
BOSFLL 1237 B6 127245 221.11 219.92 288.38 98.26% 144.2 980 90.05% 198.03

Keep in mind that both BDL/PVD uses A320 here, HPN uses about half A320/half E90s and ORH uses 100% E90s. Putting this into context and consider that BOS-FLL probably has some connection traffic that inflates all O&D nature of other stations, BDL/PVD both show good yield numbers. ORH is a struggle. HPN was not getting the premium one would expect for having half of the flights on E90. It certainly seems to me that BDL-FLL could have an additional flight in the peak winter season.

Next MCO,
BDLMCO 1050 B6 53651 189.39 188.95 275.65 99.49% 151.6 424 83.49% 157.75
HPNMCO 972 B6 51845 200.32 200.3 272.28 99.98% 116.2 559 79.82% 159.89
PVDMCO 1072 B6 30155 189.1 189.1 0 100.00% 151.2 237 84.14% 159.12
ORHMCO 1091 B6 14824 194.26 194.26 0 100.00% 100.6 181 81.45% 158.23
BOSMCO 1121 B6 169389 207.26 206.71 253.61 98.83% 182.4 1086 85.53% 176.8
When looking at these numbers, keep in mind that BOS running about A321 60% of time whereas HPN operates E90 2/3 of the time and ORH is all E90s. Data would show that BDL/PVD both show healthy yield at current service levels with A320. HPN/ORH both are not showing the yield premium expected for having that many E90s.

Next PBI,
BDLPBI 1133 B6 25128 221.62 221.66 207.73 99.74% 165.8 182 83.27% 184.59 0.1629
HPNPBI 1056 B6 81410 220.79 220.79 0 100.00% 127.4 784 81.50% 179.93 0.1704
PVDPBI 1148 B6 22059 166.07 166.05 187.54 99.90% 151.5 182 80.03% 132.89 0.1158
BOSPBI 1197 B6 117278 204.45 204.23 267.03 99.66% 161.7 849 85.42% 174.46 0.1457
This is where BDL/HPN really start to shine. Keep in mind here that BDL actually saw a good number of A321s and HPN was about E90 a little less than half of the time. PVD for Q2 was a little rough. This shows they were probably pushing the limit for the capacity on HPN-PBI with 5x daily, but they were not supplying enough capacity out of BDL. Obviously there is a lot of PBI demand from westchester to CT that would flock to BDL/HPN. Made sense that they added capacity on BDL-PBI.

Next RSW,
BDLRSW 1180 B6 7906 272.51 272.87 214.1 99.39% 150.8 61 85.93% 234.49
HPNRSW 1102 B6 21005 230.85 230.85 0 100.00% 133.6 180 87.34% 201.62
BOSRSW 1249 B6 123152 232.81 232.65 262.14 99.43% 161.7 874 87.11% 202.67
The BDL number here is somewhat misleading since its a seasonal flight that stops in April Also compared to other airport, this is the highest yielding ones. So a lot of reasons for the higher service level. Again, a lot of reasons for them to add capacity here out of both BDL/HPN.

Next TPA,
BDLTPA 1111 B6 24782 183.38 183.4 176.05 99.67% 150 182 90.78% 166.48
HPNTPA 1032 B6 15875 210.75 210.82 113.06 99.93% 100.5 182 86.75% 182.88
BOSTPA 1185 B6 96500 198.62 198.46 224.56 99.41% 140.5 765 89.79% 178.2
In this case, looks like adequate service all around. 1x daily from both BDL/HPN makes sense given their current yield level.

We've already seen additional capacities from BOS to Florida next winter with all the A321s replacing A320. BOS-TPA is going from seeing 30% of time to no E90s and A321s 1/3 of the time on similar number of flights. RSW/FLL/PBI are all getting more A321s are similar number of flights. The recent adds from BDL/HPN are on routes that currently seem to be underserved. PBI/RSW seem to be relatively underserved compared to FLL/MCO out of both BDL/HPN. The only change I think they should make is adding a 3rd flight on BDL-FLL.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3194
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:53 pm

For PVD-PBI... no one has ever flown it nonstop outside of the month of March let alone year round so it will probably take a year or so to build up. They have it in all summer long again so they must like how its trending. From what I have been seeing and hearing, Vero Beach area is the new Fort Meyers for New England which could be driving some of the increased PBI flying.

Seeing as PVD-FLL is one of the highest yielding FLL routes and is only 1x I'd love to finally see a 2nd one there. Part of be wonders if thats what PBI essentially was since they are tight on gates at FLL.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
unusualattitude
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:56 pm

You think maybe when they said not for public dissemination they meant it?
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:12 am

But we already discussed all these adds earlier. What additional info are there?
 
Blueknows
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:28 am

Planned Network Additions in 2020 (To Date)

FOCUS CITIES
BOSTON
Added Flights
Total Average Daily
Effective Season
Austin
1-2
Year-round
Charlotte
2-5
Year-round
Chicago-ORD
1-6
Summer
Cleveland
1-4
Year-round
Denver
1-3
Summer
Detroit
1-4
Year-round
Los Angeles
1-5
Summer
Nantucket
1-3
Summer
Newark
2-8
Year-round
Philadelphia
1-8
Year-round
Phoenix
1-2
Summer
San Diego
1-3/4
Year-round
San Francisco
1-6
Summer
San José, California
1-2
Summer
Seattle
1-3
Summer
Washington-DCA
5-15/16
Year-round

FORT LAUDERDALE
Added Flights
Bogotá
1-2
Summer
Jacksonville
1-4
Year-round
Kingston
1-4
Summer
Las Vegas
1-2
Year-round
Los Angeles
1-4
Year-round
Montego Bay
1-3
Summer
San Francisco
1-3
Summer
Washington-DCA
1-6
Year-round

NEW YORK-JFK
Georgetown, Guyana
1
Year-round
Guayaquil, Ecuador
1
Year-round
Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe
3 (weekly)
Winter
Puerto Plata
1-2
Summer
San Diego
1-3
Summer
San José, Costa Rica
4-7 (weekly)
Year-round

ORLANDO
Aguadilla
1-3
Summer
Richmond
1-2
Summer
Santo Domingo
1-2
Summer

SAN JUAN
Hartford
1-3
Summer
Newark
1-3/4
Year-round

OTHER MARKETS
HARTFORD
Fort Myers
1-2
Winter
San Juan
1-3
Summer
West Palm Beach
1-2
Winter
FORT MYERS
Westchester County
1-2
Year-round

NEWARK
Boston
2-8
Year-round
San Juan
1-3/4
Year-round
Santiago
1-2/3
Year-round
Santo Domingo
1-2
Summer

WASHINGTON-DCA
Fort Lauderdale
1-6
Year-round
Martha's Vineyard
3 (weekly)
Summer
West Palm Beach
1-2
Year-round
 
N757ST
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:40 am

Perhaps you missed the bottom of that email.

For internal use only - Not for external distribution.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5957
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:05 am

Blueknows wrote:
Planned Network Additions in 2020 (To Date)

FOCUS CITIES
BOSTON
Added Flights
Total Average Daily
Effective Season
Austin
1-2
Year-round
Charlotte
2-5
Year-round
Chicago-ORD
1-6
Summer
Cleveland
1-4
Year-round
Denver
1-3
Summer
Detroit
1-4
Year-round
Los Angeles
1-5
Summer
Nantucket
1-3
Summer
Newark
2-8
Year-round
Philadelphia
1-8
Year-round
Phoenix
1-2
Summer
San Diego
1-3/4
Year-round
San Francisco
1-6
Summer
San José, California
1-2
Summer
Seattle
1-3
Summer
Washington-DCA
5-15/16
Year-round

FORT LAUDERDALE
Added Flights
Bogotá
1-2
Summer
Jacksonville
1-4
Year-round
Kingston
1-4
Summer
Las Vegas
1-2
Year-round
Los Angeles
1-4
Year-round
Montego Bay
1-3
Summer
San Francisco
1-3
Summer
Washington-DCA
1-6
Year-round

NEW YORK-JFK
Georgetown, Guyana
1
Year-round
Guayaquil, Ecuador
1
Year-round
Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe
3 (weekly)
Winter
Puerto Plata
1-2
Summer
San Diego
1-3
Summer
San José, Costa Rica
4-7 (weekly)
Year-round

ORLANDO
Aguadilla
1-3
Summer
Richmond
1-2
Summer
Santo Domingo
1-2
Summer

SAN JUAN
Hartford
1-3
Summer
Newark
1-3/4
Year-round

OTHER MARKETS
HARTFORD
Fort Myers
1-2
Winter
San Juan
1-3
Summer
West Palm Beach
1-2
Winter
FORT MYERS
Westchester County
1-2
Year-round

NEWARK
Boston
2-8
Year-round
San Juan
1-3/4
Year-round
Santiago
1-2/3
Year-round
Santo Domingo
1-2
Summer

WASHINGTON-DCA
Fort Lauderdale
1-6
Year-round
Martha's Vineyard
3 (weekly)
Summer
West Palm Beach
1-2
Year-round



If you are going to talk about internal info on here...DONT BE STUPID ENOUGH TO COPY AND PASTE A COMPANY EMAIL
 
USAavdork
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:05 am

Funny thing is nothing new here. Some of this has been loaded for weeks.
 
trueblew
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:33 am

N757ST wrote:
Perhaps you missed the bottom of that email.

For internal use only - Not for external distribution.



Perhaps you've missed the fact that they have already distributed this information externally.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1156
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:41 am

N757ST wrote:
Perhaps you missed the bottom of that email.

For internal use only - Not for external distribution.



He’s not exposing anything if it’s already public knowledge... Grow up!
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:32 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Perhaps you missed the bottom of that email.

For internal use only - Not for external distribution.



He’s not exposing anything if it’s already public knowledge... Grow up!


Not everything there is public, and whether it is or not you don’t copy and paste and INTERNAL document that flat out states at the bottom “NOT FOR EXTERNAL DISTRIBUTION”. I don’t know where you work, but every company I have has had a social media policy, which flat out allows for termination for posting internal company documents. I don’t care if the email said “in news today, jetblue airplanes are white and blue”, if it says don’t distribute it, then DON’T f’ing distribute it. It’s not hard, grow up pumpkin.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:44 am

trueblew wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Perhaps you missed the bottom of that email.

For internal use only - Not for external distribution.



Perhaps you've missed the fact that they have already distributed this information externally.


I read the OAG thread, I know much of this is published already. You still don’t publish an email that says directly on it do not distribute. You all want to be amateur sleuths and find the info earlier via OAG then have at it, but going around and distributing an email verbatim when the company says not to is poor form and could lead to a meeting with a crew leader.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5212
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:20 am

BTW, interesting link I saw from Pittsburgh thread
https://www.anna.aero/2019/10/11/top-20 ... caribbean/

Looking at this list and thinking of B6 strength, there seems to be a couple of routes they should think about adding.

CLE-SJU has about 60k 2 way passengers over a year, which works out to be 160 to 170 daily or over 80 PDEW. If we consider that direct flight will simulate traffic and draw in passengers currently flying to SJU from CMH/PIT or other surrounding airports without direct service (CMH-SJU has 33k, so another 50 PDEW. There seems to be enough demand there to support 1 daily A320 service.

Another one is BUF-SJU with 42k 2 way passengers over a year but also has 17k to SYR and 36k to YYZ. If we consider the same factor as above and include all the demand from BUF/SYR/ROC and across the border, this seems to be another route that can support daily A320 service.

Also, I'm sure this would keep NY politicians happy.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 438
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
BTW, interesting link I saw from Pittsburgh thread
https://www.anna.aero/2019/10/11/top-20 ... caribbean/

Looking at this list and thinking of B6 strength, there seems to be a couple of routes they should think about adding.

CLE-SJU has about 60k 2 way passengers over a year, which works out to be 160 to 170 daily or over 80 PDEW. If we consider that direct flight will simulate traffic and draw in passengers currently flying to SJU from CMH/PIT or other surrounding airports without direct service (CMH-SJU has 33k, so another 50 PDEW. There seems to be enough demand there to support 1 daily A320 service.

Another one is BUF-SJU with 42k 2 way passengers over a year but also has 17k to SYR and 36k to YYZ. If we consider the same factor as above and include all the demand from BUF/SYR/ROC and across the border, this seems to be another route that can support daily A320 service.

Also, I'm sure this would keep NY politicians happy.


It took B6 a few years to fly BUF-LA direct flight route after politicians pretty much begged B6 to service it. I cant see BUF - SJU happening in a non hub direct route. I think obviously it could work based off that link / information. I just dont see it happening.
 
User avatar
chepos
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JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:52 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BTW, interesting link I saw from Pittsburgh thread
https://www.anna.aero/2019/10/11/top-20 ... caribbean/

Looking at this list and thinking of B6 strength, there seems to be a couple of routes they should think about adding.

CLE-SJU has about 60k 2 way passengers over a year, which works out to be 160 to 170 daily or over 80 PDEW. If we consider that direct flight will simulate traffic and draw in passengers currently flying to SJU from CMH/PIT or other surrounding airports without direct service (CMH-SJU has 33k, so another 50 PDEW. There seems to be enough demand there to support 1 daily A320 service.

Another one is BUF-SJU with 42k 2 way passengers over a year but also has 17k to SYR and 36k to YYZ. If we consider the same factor as above and include all the demand from BUF/SYR/ROC and across the border, this seems to be another route that can support daily A320 service.

Also, I'm sure this would keep NY politicians happy.


It took B6 a few years to fly BUF-LA direct flight route after politicians pretty much begged B6 to service it. I cant see BUF - SJU happening in a non hub direct route. I think obviously it could work based off that link / information. I just dont see it happening.


Both BUF and CLE-SJU are price sensitive markets. People will gladly connect in order to find a cheaper fare. They both would last about as long as JAX-SJU.

CO and then UA operates CLE-SJU (not 100% they still do this seasonal) , I can’t see B6 jumping on this route (much less BUF).


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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:05 pm

I'm taking a look at PDEW numbers from Q1 and Q2. Looking at the top unserved markets out of BOS

SAT - Q1 - 160, Q2 - 208. Average fare of $250 in Q1 and $287 in Q2 on the connection stuff with AA and WN as the largest benficiaries, which make sense given their Texas roots. Keep in mind that in Q2, Austin has average fare of $264 with 569 PDEW. And in Q1, AUS had average fare of $235 with 432 PDEW. Given that SAT fares are only slightly higher than AUS (due to all connection itineraries), it does not look like AUS is over-served. So I think it made sense that B6 added a second flight to AUS rather than adding a flight to SAT. Although given the demand at SAT, it doesn't seem like a bad ideal to add a flight there.]

SMF - Q1 - 102, Q2 - 202. Average fare of $248 in Q1 and $300 in Q2. This is cheating a little bit since B6 does serve BOS-SMF. However, they do it seasonally and not even daily outside of that. Here is the kicker, they only captured 28% of the market in Q2 despite having non-stop here. It certainly, made a lot of sense for them to go daily here next summer. The market easily supports a A320 outside of Q2 if they can offer consistent service. This is a route I think they can even serve subdaily in Q1 if they had A220-300 and maybe move to A320 when demand picks up.

SDF - Q1 - 83, Q2 - 141. Average fare of $233 in Q1 and $243 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share here. Given the distance, the fare level is pretty healthy. This is a route I have been advocating for a while now. The market should certainly support A320 outside of winter time. In winter time, it seems like E90 is more appropriate. Again, A220-300 would work all year round. Obviously, a non-stop service would not grab all of the demand here, but non-stop with lower fares would naturally increase the O&D on BOS-SDF, which should allow a daily A220-300 to work comfortably.

MEM - Q1 - 77, Q2 - 125. Average fare of $268 in Q1 and $294 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share here. Again, given the distance, the fares are very high. A daily E90 would work here. A320 is probably too much outside of peak summer month. Again, A220-300 outside of Q1 works pretty well. They are not going to get the entire market share, but non-stop service + lower fares + connection on BOS end could support A220-300 for most of the year.

ABQ - Q1 - 75, Q2 - 128. Average fare of $269 in Q1 and $315 in Q2 with WN having the largest market share in both quarters. Again, not too surprising given WN's presence at ABQ. I was a little surprised this showed up so high given that JFK only has a single flight here year round. Again, this seems like a market they can try out of BOS with A220-300 that's daily in summer time and subdaily in winter time.

Tuscon - Q1 - 90, Q2 - 90. Average fare of $314 in Q1 and $355 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share in both quarters. The fare level is pretty high here. Not sure there is enough demand here to support daily service, but at least the demand is consistent throughout the year. If they added Tuscon, I'd imagine there will be a JFK flight here too.

EYW - Q1 - 66. Average fare of $335 in Q1. This is obviously a winter only kind of market. Looks to be an obvious market for A220-300 out of both BOS/JFK in winter time on a sub-daily schedule. That fare level is really high.
BHM - Q1 - 53, Q2 - 82. Average fare of $255 in Q1 and $294 in Q2 with DL having the largest market share in both quarters. This seems like not a large market (especially in Q1), but the fares are quite high for the distance of travel. Would need a lot more time to develop.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:57 pm

ABQ and TUS fall into the DAB category...except much longer and fuel dependent

Both are marginal from NY. Both are not worth serving from BOS. Both will probably on the chopping block if fuel spikes of if there is a downturn

I was told ABQ sticks around as a BOD member lives there

But in positive ABQ news, they did upgrade to the 321 during balloon festival

Another positive to both cities: unlike DAB, these allow B6 to have a larger footprint out west...something they desperately need
 
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adamh8297
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:16 am

tphuang wrote:
I'm taking a look at PDEW numbers from Q1 and Q2. Looking at the top unserved markets out of BOS

SMF - Q1 - 102, Q2 - 202. Average fare of $248 in Q1 and $300 in Q2. This is cheating a little bit since B6 does serve BOS-SMF. However, they do it seasonally and not even daily outside of that.


SMF will be daily this summer but it starts more than midway through Q2 - Starts 5/22 and ends 9/8

A couple you missed:

GSP Q1=64 PDEW and Q2 goes to 85 PDEW but does it leak to CLT? CSA has grown >10% since 2010 (its larger than BUF by 200K) and its only a 800 mile flight.

Middle of the country - maybe some potential to try seasonally since the numbers are better in summer.
OMA Q1=58 PDEW but Q2 goes to 99 PDEW in summer. Same distance as most Florida markets
OKC Q1=50 PDEW but Q2 goes to 90 PDEW in summer Similar distance to Texas markets which B6 hasn't done the best in.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:35 am

jfklganyc wrote:
ABQ and TUS fall into the DAB category...except much longer and fuel dependent

Both are marginal from NY. Both are not worth serving from BOS. Both will probably on the chopping block if fuel spikes of if there is a downturn

I was told ABQ sticks around as a BOD member lives there

But in positive ABQ news, they did upgrade to the 321 during balloon festival

Another positive to both cities: unlike DAB, these allow B6 to have a larger footprint out west...something they desperately need


JetBlue hasn’t flown to Tucson since May 2007.

And the assertion that the ABQ flight is kept in place for a board member is inane.
a.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:10 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm taking a look at PDEW numbers from Q1 and Q2. Looking at the top unserved markets out of BOS

SMF - Q1 - 102, Q2 - 202. Average fare of $248 in Q1 and $300 in Q2. This is cheating a little bit since B6 does serve BOS-SMF. However, they do it seasonally and not even daily outside of that.


SMF will be daily this summer but it starts more than midway through Q2 - Starts 5/22 and ends 9/8

A couple you missed:

GSP Q1=64 PDEW and Q2 goes to 85 PDEW but does it leak to CLT? CSA has grown >10% since 2010 (its larger than BUF by 200K) and its only a 800 mile flight.

Middle of the country - maybe some potential to try seasonally since the numbers are better in summer.
OMA Q1=58 PDEW but Q2 goes to 99 PDEW in summer. Same distance as most Florida markets
OKC Q1=50 PDEW but Q2 goes to 90 PDEW in summer Similar distance to Texas markets which B6 hasn't done the best in.


You are right. I'm going to slowly go over the various markets later. That was just a first look.

with SMF, I want to show that even with existing markets they do serve, there are places they should add service.

So going through the list now of the top markets from BOS in general.

Washington DC/Area - not too surprise here. A lot of additions coming this quarter from B6 and DL, so I don't think anything needs to be added here.

Orlando - Q1 - 2358, Q2 - 2310. This one really surprised me, because WN somehow managed to capture 27 to 28% of market in both quarters without even having direct service outside of maybe some saturday services. B6 only managed to capture 44% of market in Q1 and 39% in Q2. Picking a day in February now, I' seeing 4 A321s and 3 A320s from B6, 2 A320 and 2 B738s from DL, 2 A320s from NK and 1 A320 from F9. Basically, B6 is only offering 1280 seats here, which is probably why they are not even at 50% market share in a market they should completely dominate. Looking at a day in late April, B6 is offering 3 A321s, 5 A320s and 1 E90, DL has 1 A321, 2 A320 and 1 B738 and NK has a A319 + A320. B6 here is offering 1500 seats in what is probably peak Florida travel season. And looking at Mid June, they are only offering 4 A321s and 1 A320. Summer demand is a little lower to MCO, but that's only 960 seats. This is probably why WN manages to capture 25% of the market (probably via BWI or BNA) with no regularly scheduled direct servcie. This seems like a market they need to continue to add too.

I see a similar to tale to many other Florida markets. WN has 12% market share in the BOS-MIA/FLL market despite having at most saturday service. BOS-TPA has a huge % that's not B6/DL.

Other interesting market share trends.

For Bay Area, they captured 38.5% market share in Q1 and 33.6% in Q2. They have the largest market share here.
For LA Basin, they captured 35.8% market share in Q1 and 29.% in Q2. They also have the largest market share here. Maybe these lower market share in Q2 is why they are adding more service to places like SJC/OAK/BUR in summer time.

A couple of markets where they are not part of, but should be.

IND - Q1 - 238, Q2 - 363. And the average fare here is high due to WN's lack of POS in BOS route and DL running just 4x E75s here. Interesting that the PDEW is over 350 in Q2 even after WN started to cut back services due to MAX grounding. Doing simple math, DL offering 300 seats here and getting 65% LF on it means there are more than 170 PDEW who took WN or connected. That seems like plenty of demand for B6 to come in with 2 E90s. Lower fares will stimulate more traffic and connection at BOS will help fill the planes.

CMH - Q1 - 211, Q2 - 340. Again, the average fare here is very high. This route basically has 1 WN flight + 3 E75. Doing simple math, DL offering 225 seats here and getting 65% LF on it means there are more than 190 PDEW who took WN or connected. There seems like plenty of excessive demand here for B6 to come in with 2 E90s. Even if DL adds another E75, there is enough demand through lower fares to support the market. I really don't see WN sticking around here if B6 enters this market.

CVG - Q1 - 210, Q2 - 325. Again, a very underserved market that DL keeps up with high fares through running just 1 B717 and 3 CR9. This is a little tougher market to crack due to DL's large operation at CVG. Which is probably why they can keep up with their monopoly here. Similar dynamics like the other 2 markets, except that the fares here are even higher.

Just looking at these markets, IND/CMH should be no brainers for them to enter as soon as possible. There are very few routes out of BOS that B6 doesn't do well on vs competition and they are all legacy fortress hubs. CMH/IND are not legacy fortress hubs.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Orlando - Q1 - 2358, Q2 - 2310. This one really surprised me, because WN somehow managed to capture 27 to 28% of market in both quarters without even having direct service outside of maybe some saturday services. B6 only managed to capture 44% of market in Q1 and 39% in Q2. Picking a day in February now, I' seeing 4 A321s and 3 A320s from B6, 2 A320 and 2 B738s from DL, 2 A320s from NK and 1 A320 from F9. Basically, B6 is only offering 1280 seats here, which is probably why they are not even at 50% market share in a market they should completely dominate. Looking at a day in late April, B6 is offering 3 A321s, 5 A320s and 1 E90, DL has 1 A321, 2 A320 and 1 B738 and NK has a A319 + A320. B6 here is offering 1500 seats in what is probably peak Florida travel season. And looking at Mid June, they are only offering 4 A321s and 1 A320. Summer demand is a little lower to MCO, but that's only 960 seats. This is probably why WN manages to capture 25% of the market (probably via BWI or BNA) with no regularly scheduled direct servcie. This seems like a market they need to continue to add too.

I see a similar to tale to many other Florida markets. WN has 12% market share in the BOS-MIA/FLL market despite having at most saturday service. BOS-TPA has


Are you sure that doesn’t include PVD? The DOT added PVD and MHT to some of their reporting metrics a few years ago. The % mentioned for WN fits about right with the PDEW in question.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:18 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:


Are you sure that doesn’t include PVD? The DOT added PVD and MHT to some of their reporting metrics a few years ago. The % mentioned for WN fits about right with the PDEW in question.

Actually it does. That would explain why WN has such a high market share to MCO. But that still doesn't account for how they got to 12.5% of market share to FLL/MIA with at most 2 flights from PVD. I will keep this in mind.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:39 pm

tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:


Are you sure that doesn’t include PVD? The DOT added PVD and MHT to some of their reporting metrics a few years ago. The % mentioned for WN fits about right with the PDEW in question.

Actually it does. That would explain why WN has such a high market share to MCO. But that still doesn't account for how they got to 12.5% of market share to FLL/MIA with at most 2 flights from PVD. I will keep this in mind.


WN runs 2x most of the winter and spring and 3x on Saturdays
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:57 pm

^ which shows that when PVD has decent service to a strong destination, it does a good job of being a support airport to the region. Given that, it would be sensible at least, for B6 to consider providing token (1x and/or seasonal) service from PVD to their largest BOS markets. RSW, TPA, JFK as examples.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:41 pm

PVD757 wrote:
^ which shows that when PVD has decent service to a strong destination, it does a good job of being a support airport to the region. Given that, it would be sensible at least, for B6 to consider providing token (1x and/or seasonal) service from PVD to their largest BOS markets. RSW, TPA, JFK as examples.


JetBlue throws a curve ball of sorts and starts PVD-LAX.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm

LAX is PVD’s largest unserved market but the distance and the general focus on BOS by most airlines are hurdles to that service ever happening.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:08 am

I think PVD-PBI is a good experiment into what else PVD can support. When you add PVD-Florida routes, you are always worried about cannibalizing BOS flights. PVD-LAX is an interesting idea. Not something they can do until A220-300 joins service and when they get more gate space at LAX.

BDL seems like it will get service first. I'd think if BDL adds went well with their recent adds, PVD might get it in the future.

I'm just thinking about what they could try out of LAX that's underserved if they get the 5 gates that they asked for. Imo, they could try to be a carrier that specializes in vacation routes + transcon along with the obligatory short haul routes they run right now out of LGB (moved over to LAX). Don't have gate space for more than that.

Things they could try out of LAX.
RDU - Q1 - 393, Q2 - 500. This seems like an under-served route. Only has 1 flight each from AA and DL. Average fare of $284 in Q1 and $310 in Q2. That's pretty high for non-premium transcon. The demand outstrips supply so much that WN managed capture 14% of market share with no non-stop service. This is a route they could even try with mint.

TPA - Q1 - 481, Q2 - 506. Q1 avg fare is $292 and Q2 is $302. Again, pretty high for non-premium transcon. And there is only 1 flight from DL right now it seems like for most of the year and also one flight from WN. This is clearly a really under-served route that I'm sure DL is milking. Even WN's fare here is higher than a lot of its transcon market. I'd think a red-eye A220 would outperform WN here.

PIT - Q1 - 314, Q2 - 430. This is already a market stimulated by NK, so I don't think PDEW could be increased more by LCC option. It does seem like a lot of people refuse to fly NK here, so there is a market for people looking for another option. NK managed to push WN off this route. Again, another route A220 could do well.

BDL - Q1 - 215, Q2 - 258. Avg fare of $316 in Q1 and $354 in Q2. This has 1 AA flight here. Given B6's strength in this area, I'd think A220 could really differentiate itself product wise and cost wise. I think if they have A220, they could try either HPN or BDL to LAX. There is a lot of demand in the area with a lot of wealth. And i don't think a flight here would hurt either BOS or JFK.

RSW - Q1 - 135, Q2 - 135. Avg Fare of $338 in Q1 and $350 in Q2. There is no direct service here and a lot of the demand flows to MIA/FLL. This is a market that could easily support something with A220 capacity level.

JAX - Q1 - 169, Q2 - 185. Avg Fare of $322 in Q1 and $338 in Q2. There is no direct service here with AA/DL capturing most of the traffic. I'm not sure there is actually much demand for direct service given the abundance of connection opportunity here and the heavy legacy FF population in the area. They could try A320 here.

RIC - Q1 - 125, Q2 - 158. Avg Fare of $309 in Q1 and $338 in Q2. There is no direct service here. Seems like another route that A220 could work in. I'm sure direct service would only capture a portion of the market, so the fare level would come down in order to support 140-seat capacity.

Again, it seems wild for me to suggest all these transcon, but B6 does try a lot of transcon that legacies don't have the cost level to support. And A220 makes the thin market more profitable than ever to serve. There is a couple of LAX transcon routes that they could try with mint also. It's just so hard to see them do well in the intra-west coast market. And what they are good at are transcon + leisure stuff. For both market, A220 + A321 is a great combo to explore.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:51 am

tphuang wrote:
I think PVD-PBI is a good experiment into what else PVD can support. When you add PVD-Florida routes, you are always worried about cannibalizing BOS flights.

BDL - Q1 - 215, Q2 - 258. Avg fare of $316 in Q1 and $354 in Q2. This has 1 AA flight here. Given B6's strength in this area, I'd think A220 could really differentiate itself product wise and cost wise. I think if they have A220, they could try either HPN or BDL to LAX. There is a lot of demand in the area with a lot of wealth. And i don't think a flight here would hurt either BOS or JFK.


I see so many posts referring to potential cannibalizing BOS/JFK flights, but why is this a bad thing? When you have gate and/or slot restricted airports, wouldn't it be ideal to shift a little of the major routes to satellite airports (as they do at JFK with LGA/EWR/HPN) in order to free up space and/or slots for new routes from the main hubs?
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:12 pm

PVD757 wrote:
LAX is PVD’s largest unserved market but the distance and the general focus on BOS by most airlines are hurdles to that service ever happening.


I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?
 
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adamh8297
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:52 pm

B752OS wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
LAX is PVD’s largest unserved market but the distance and the general focus on BOS by most airlines are hurdles to that service ever happening.


I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.
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2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:18 pm

trueblew wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think PVD-PBI is a good experiment into what else PVD can support. When you add PVD-Florida routes, you are always worried about cannibalizing BOS flights.

BDL - Q1 - 215, Q2 - 258. Avg fare of $316 in Q1 and $354 in Q2. This has 1 AA flight here. Given B6's strength in this area, I'd think A220 could really differentiate itself product wise and cost wise. I think if they have A220, they could try either HPN or BDL to LAX. There is a lot of demand in the area with a lot of wealth. And i don't think a flight here would hurt either BOS or JFK.


I see so many posts referring to potential cannibalizing BOS/JFK flights, but why is this a bad thing? When you have gate and/or slot restricted airports, wouldn't it be ideal to shift a little of the major routes to satellite airports (as they do at JFK with LGA/EWR/HPN) in order to free up space and/or slots for new routes from the main hubs?

I would agree with JFK or NYC area airport in general. For BOS, they are not really gate constrained once they get those 4 new gates in C, so they do have the space to keep adding flights and have the best schedule on an important route like BOS-LAX.

adamh8297 wrote:
B752OS wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
LAX is PVD’s largest unserved market but the distance and the general focus on BOS by most airlines are hurdles to that service ever happening.


I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.

not sure, the data doesn't provide for just PVD-LAX. I can't see them doing SFO due to UA and their lack of gate space there. My guess is BDL would come before PVD if they do chose to add such transcons.

A few more BOS routes that they are not serving or fully serving.

STL - Q1 - 238 - Q2 - 381. Avg fare of $246 in Q1 and $280 in Q2. This is a case where a route with demand out of BOS is somehow monopoligzed by WN. WN runs 3x here in winter and 4x for much of the rest of the year. It's a very high fare market due to lack of B6 presence. WN captured 58% of market share in Q1 and 65% of market share in Q2. It's one of those markets that seem to be suppressed by the high fares. Compared to IND/CMH/CVG, it's actually probably easier for B6 to enter STL due to WN's weakness out of BOS. They have higher yield (albeit on E90) than WN even to BWI. I can't see STL being tougher than that and it is a slightly larger market than IND. They could try both JFK/BOS here, since there is nobody on JFK-STL.

PDX - Q1 - 203, Q2 - 380. Avg fare of $279 in Q1 and $305 in Q2. They obviously do serve here from early June to Oct/Nov. A very seasonal market. Hard to see them here do better unless they make this year round. During the low season, AS runs just 1 flight a day and that's enough to generate high fares. B6 will probably wait for A220 before making this year round. There is no reason for them to not be running this flight in April/May.

MCI - Q1 - 182, Q2 - 320. Avg fare of $209 in Q1 and $229 in Q2. This is a route that DL ran WN off this year by just pure willingness to absorb large losses. I don't think this is high on B6's priority list, but it's a route that they could certainly enter with E90. There is enough demand outside of winter to support DL's 3x RJ + an A220 or 2 E90s.

MKE - Q1 - 139, Q2 - 252. Avg fare of $206 in Q1 and $223 in Q2. Another route that DL ran WN off this year. I'd personally put this ahead of MCI. It's better suited for E90 than MCI and a market that probably bleeds traffic to Chicago. Lower fare here would definitely generate comparable demand to MCI. And they could also add JFK-MKE since there is no service on that.

ORF - Q1 - 128, Q2 - 203, Avg fare of $194 in Q1 and $208 in Q2. This is a route DL runs 1x RJ for most of the year (no service in winter). The supply here is so low that AA has the top market share here despite having no direct service. Given such lack of attention, I'd think this is a more favorable market to enter than the 2 above. E90 and A220 could both work here. On top of that, it can probably support daily service to Florida. I might put this even ahead of SDF/MEM, since it's pretyt high fared route given the distance.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:57 pm

If AA drops BDL LAX I can definitely see B6 jumping on it, but there’s probably not room for both
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B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:08 am

adamh8297 wrote:
B752OS wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
LAX is PVD’s largest unserved market but the distance and the general focus on BOS by most airlines are hurdles to that service ever happening.


I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.


They can just look at the zip codes for POS. Lots of companies do this.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 am

According to Wikipedia, JetBlue fly a seasonal service between SMF & BOS. I can’t seem to find out when this starts as the JetBlue Timetable feature seems to only work if you put a specific date in. Anyone know when this starts?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:36 pm

VanBosch wrote:
According to Wikipedia, JetBlue fly a seasonal service between SMF & BOS. I can’t seem to find out when this starts as the JetBlue Timetable feature seems to only work if you put a specific date in. Anyone know when this starts?


May 22nd
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MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:07 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.


Why? No carrier with a SFO or LAX hub does, and B6 doesn't have much on either end. PVD ranks number 70 in domestic enplanements. No airport that small size needs non-stop 2,600 mile flights passing over a dozen logical connecting hubs.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:21 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.


Why? No carrier with a SFO or LAX hub does, and B6 doesn't have much on either end. PVD ranks number 70 in domestic enplanements. No airport that small size needs non-stop 2,600 mile flights passing over a dozen logical connecting hubs.


Yet sustained Dublin service for 3 years until the Max killed that operation...

Before B6 at BOS, PVD LAX had over 200 PDEW but BOS LAX literally went from 6x (AA and UA only) to like 20+ daily.

As BOS continues to grow, it’s not going to get any easier and more convenient. These factors will help PVD in the long run while right now it’s tough to break out from the BOS shadow while everyone fights for the last crumbs of real estate there.

Honestly the best carrier for PVD LAX would be a weak BOS player like AS.... they can capture the entire local market that’s likely driving to BOS to fly anyone but AS.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:06 pm

Nothing for B6 this week in OAG thread.

stuff that might be off relevance to them
DL BOS-PBI APR 1.2>0.9[0.7]
DL BOS-RSW APR 1.2>0.9[0.8]

KX GCM-JFK MAR 0.5>0.7[1.0] APR 0.4>0.7[1.0] MAY 0.4>0.7[0.4] JUN 0.4>0.7[0.6] JUL 0.4>0.7[1.0] AUG 0.5>0.7[1.0] SEP 0.4>0.7[0.5]

*LA CUN-MIA JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.2>0[0.3]
*LA MIA-UIO JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.0] MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0]

DL is ending the seasonals for BOS-RSW/PBI at about the same as last year, which is good for B6, since they had originally planned to end it later and start earlier.

A little more capacity over the summer on JFK-GCM.

Latam exits MIA-UIO should help B6 on FLL-UIO. I'm still on the reccord that I think LA will exit JFK-GYE at some point now that B6 has entered.
 
Rafale9312
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
Things they could try out of LAX.
RDU - Q1 - 393, Q2 - 500. This seems like an under-served route. Only has 1 flight each from AA and DL. Average fare of $284 in Q1 and $310 in Q2. That's pretty high for non-premium transcon. The demand outstrips supply so much that WN managed capture 14% of market share with no non-stop service. This is a route they could even try with mint.


As much as I'd love to see this for selfish reasons, I cannot see LAX-RDU happening on B6 in the near future, never mind B6 Mint. 2x daily is the frequency in off-season. In summertime and in select winter months, that frequency is 4x daily - 2x for both AA on 319/738's and DL will start to use a 739 on RDU-LAX along with a 738. The only other route I could see Mint working out of RDU would be SFO/SJC (UA will go 3x daily on RDU-SFO this coming year), but I would imagine there would be more places that need Mint aircraft before RDU will.

As usual, I'd love to be proven wrong.

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