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PVD757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

I don't really understand that thought - how is a single daily flight going to really hurt Boston?


At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.


Why? No carrier with a SFO or LAX hub does, and B6 doesn't have much on either end. PVD ranks number 70 in domestic enplanements. No airport that small size needs non-stop 2,600 mile flights passing over a dozen logical connecting hubs.


PVD is the 39th largest MSA and has over 7 million people within a 90 minute drive. The issue is there is so much focus by airlines at BOS, which is only 55 miles from PVD, that that’s where all the service is. PVD’s enplanements are drastically suppressed due to service patterns at BOS.
 
PVD757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:48 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:

At some B6 may need to serve LAX or SFO from PVD - I'm pretty sure they can figure out how many customers flying to West coast come from PVD's catchment south of Boston.


Why? No carrier with a SFO or LAX hub does, and B6 doesn't have much on either end. PVD ranks number 70 in domestic enplanements. No airport that small size needs non-stop 2,600 mile flights passing over a dozen logical connecting hubs.


Yet sustained Dublin service for 3 years until the Max killed that operation...

Before B6 at BOS, PVD LAX had over 200 PDEW but BOS LAX literally went from 6x (AA and UA only) to like 20+ daily.

As BOS continues to grow, it’s not going to get any easier and more convenient. These factors will help PVD in the long run while right now it’s tough to break out from the BOS shadow while everyone fights for the last crumbs of real estate there.

Honestly the best carrier for PVD LAX would be a weak BOS player like AS.... they can capture the entire local market that’s likely driving to BOS to fly anyone but AS.


PVD-LAX PDEW peaked at 272 in 2001. Add in the other LA Basin airports and it the region saw over 300.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:25 pm

I didnt mean TUS, I meant RNO

Brain fart

“JetBlue hasn’t flown to Tucson since May 2007.

And the assertion that the ABQ flight is kept in place for a board member is inane.”

Absolutely true

A regular flier on the route...
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:01 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I didnt mean TUS, I meant RNO

Brain fart

“JetBlue hasn’t flown to Tucson since May 2007.

And the assertion that the ABQ flight is kept in place for a board member is inane.”

Absolutely true

A regular flier on the route...


While we are on that subject, is anyone curious why there is daily service between MCO and SLC, while other richer markets are left untouched outwest for MCO? Because you can pay your huge customer service center workforce less when they know they can shuttle their family back and forth to Disney and universal.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:26 pm

Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:44 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf

probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:47 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I didnt mean TUS, I meant RNO

Brain fart

“JetBlue hasn’t flown to Tucson since May 2007.

And the assertion that the ABQ flight is kept in place for a board member is inane.”

Absolutely true

A regular flier on the route...


While we are on that subject, is anyone curious why there is daily service between MCO and SLC, while other richer markets are left untouched outwest for MCO? Because you can pay your huge customer service center workforce less when they know they can shuttle their family back and forth to Disney and universal.


Because the chairman of the board.

and "there's no money east of vegas to west of orlando"
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:47 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Absolutely true

A regular flier on the route...


I don't believe this is correct. If you're referring to Ms. Rhoades, she hasn't been on the board in nearly five years.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf

probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:18 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf

probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


Well, they are still waiting on A321LR and the current A321NEO delays isn't exactly comforting for starting London service on time. That's probably why they said 2021 and didn't even give a quarter.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


Well, they are still waiting on A321LR and the current A321NEO delays isn't exactly comforting for starting London service on time. That's probably why they said 2021 and didn't even give a quarter.


What is B6 going to do with the A321LR if LON slots are NOT forthcoming in 2021?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:23 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


Well, they are still waiting on A321LR and the current A321NEO delays isn't exactly comforting for starting London service on time. That's probably why they said 2021 and didn't even give a quarter.


What is B6 going to do with the A321LR if LON slots are NOT forthcoming in 2021?


LHR might not come, but LGW shouldn't be that hard to get. If DY is done, then there will be a lot of slots available. If not, they can always try to do a deal with DY for some LGW slots. No shortage of Euro LCCs going belly up every year.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:14 pm

The other thing I wanted to look at is where JetBlue can add domestically out of JFK (I know shock) in the event they get more slots. To start off, I looked at all the non-LGA airports for Q1, Q2.

The largest markets are:
LA Basin - B6 had the largest market share here in Q1 with 25.5%. UA had the largest market share here in Q2 with 26%. Their fares here aren't as high as legacies due to the lower fared (but still profitable) secondary LA markets like BUR/LGB/ONT. I think their current schedule of 15x daily here is more than enough.

Bay Area - It was a little big more than 2/3 of the LA Basin market. UA was the dominant player here with 31% in Q1 and 35% in Q2. I do think B6 has sufficient service to OAK/SJC already. I think that an extra mint flight or 2 to SFO can easily be supported and would be very profitable.

LAS - Again, UA was the biggest player here in Q1 with 33% and in Q2 with 35%. I think B6 is probably happy with their current market share. They can probably add a 5th flight here in summer time now that AA is basically out of the market.

PHX - Here is definitely a weak market for B6. In fact, they are smaller than the 10% market that seems to be required to make the report in this market. This is a market that's quite lucrative in the higher end that they are simply not competing in. It has less competition than SEA and AA has been weakening to point that it's now the lowest fared carrier on this route among the big 3. If they can get extra mint aircraft, having a 2x daily to PHX should be more profitable than a lot of market they can add.

SEA - AS was the market share leader here with 39% market in Q1 and 37% in Q2. Interesting enough, they are also the lowest fared carrier here. I think B6's current schedule is sufficient here.

SAN - The next largest is between SAN/AUS. SAN was larger in Q2, but smaller in Q1. UA was the largest carrier in Q1 and DL the largest in Q2. This is a market where B6 does very well with its mint product. The 3rd flight for next summer is definitely needed. Hope to see it persist through the low season. They could conceivably be the largest carrier here in the off seasons.

AUS - UA was the largest player here in Q1/Q2 with about 28 to 29% market share. This is one market B6 has really declined in. I don't know if they need more flight here, but they could at least upgauge the existing flights to A321s. It's a large and growing business market for sure.

SLC - Not a surprise that DL is the largest player here with over 55% market share. B6 is about 20% in both Q1 and Q2 after their second flight got added. It seems to be a pretty lucrative route in Q1 (unlike some of the other markets), but less lucrative in summer season. B6 should stick with current schedule.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:25 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf

probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


You are comparing airlines (DL/AA) with ETOPS already completed years ago with the equipment readily available to do that (757’s, 767’s, 777’s and 330’s) with an airline that hasn’t got ETOPS yet or the equipment they need (it’s on order) so answer this. What would you rather them do? Rush it for 2020 with leased equipment (a la DY) just to get there, or wait the extra year get the approvals with their own equipment and have a chance at getting it right

Said another way, do you over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver. I know what I would choose as I am not in the business of financial suicide. Just saying.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:41 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


YSaid another way, do you over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver. I know what I would choose as I am not in the business of financial suicide. Just saying.


As of now, JetBlue is over-promising and not delivering at all.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:54 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Apparently, JetBlue asked for 70 weekly slots at LHR for S20. Got zero.
In contrast, Norwegian asked for 14 and got 6. Not sure why B6 was denied its request while Norwegian got granted.

https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -FINAL.pdf

probably because they are not ready to operate yet and also the slot they asked for are not available.


And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


What's with your transparent disdain for JetBlue? You expect the company to order LRs and XLRs and then NOT announce where they plan to fly them? AAs been going across the ocean since the Flagship Douglas days. Delta been steadily building up Boston in a very clear and obvious manner and has, AT THE MOMENT, everything from 757s to 777 LRs that are capable of transoceanic. Of course they can announce a route they already fly to, AT THE MOMENT, and start said route in a few months. JetBlue is a PR firm that flies airplanes. For better or for worse. Those of us on the front line with an employee number see it even more plainly than you keyboard soldiers with a nose bleed seat always looking to launch an offensive. But dumping on JetBlue because they placed 2 new aircraft orders and 2 subtypes within the same order within 12 months from each other, trying to GROW the fleet by 50% in 5 years, plans to expand their footprint to an entirely new continent that requires foreign approval, landing slots, FAA certification, crew training, logistics, support staff and the actual airplane that's been delayed by both airframe and engine manufacturer is weak sauce.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:57 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
JetBlue is a PR firm that flies airplanes.


LOL. Good one.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:45 pm

ETOPS is happening as we speak. Proving runs will start next year.
contrary to popular belief, you don't just get handed ETOPS cert. and get to hold it in your back pocket for whenever you need it. It's use it or lose it kind thing. So no point in getting it done until it's ready to be launched.

Frankly I give London 50/50 chance. If it does great, if it doesn't the planes can go south and likely do just as well.
Last edited by CaptCoolHand on Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:52 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

And those 70 slots will suddenly become available in 2021 when JetBlue supposedly is going to fly from BOS to Europe? I believe it when I see it.
It is talk and bluster with B6. In contrast to Delta who announced LGW and starts flying it within the year. Or AA who announced BOS-LHR and starts flying it within the year.


YSaid another way, do you over promise and under deliver or under promise and over deliver. I know what I would choose as I am not in the business of financial suicide. Just saying.


As of now, JetBlue is over-promising and not delivering at all.


No they are not.. they have stated possibly 2021 and maybe LHR/LGW or even as some have mentioned STN, to me, that's hedging bets based on parameters that have not been fully defined yet, like slot availability, ETOPS certification completion (in process, but not done) and delays on the 321LR's for their production slots. That is not over promising in anyone's language and they can't deliver, because of all the reasons I stated above. I think you need to go back and re-read what I said, because clearly you didn't get it the first time or you just don't want to, to fit your narrative that is convoluted at best and at worst, just way off base. But you won't believe that regardless.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:21 am

tphuang wrote:
Tuscon - Q1 - 90, Q2 - 90. Average fare of $314 in Q1 and $355 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share in both quarters. The fare level is pretty high here. Not sure there is enough demand here to support daily service, but at least the demand is consistent throughout the year. If they added Tuscon, I'd imagine there will be a JFK flight here too.


One thing potentially going for this route would be the fact that Raytheon Missle Systems is based in Tucson, with the overall company headquarters being in Waltham, MA. That's got to drive some traffic that's higher value and more consistent than the typical tourism traffic. Whether it's enough to justify a flight is another matter. Perhaps if the A220 can make it that far...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:58 am

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Tuscon - Q1 - 90, Q2 - 90. Average fare of $314 in Q1 and $355 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share in both quarters. The fare level is pretty high here. Not sure there is enough demand here to support daily service, but at least the demand is consistent throughout the year. If they added Tuscon, I'd imagine there will be a JFK flight here too.


One thing potentially going for this route would be the fact that Raytheon Missle Systems is based in Tucson, with the overall company headquarters being in Waltham, MA. That's got to drive some traffic that's higher value and more consistent than the typical tourism traffic. Whether it's enough to justify a flight is another matter. Perhaps if the A220 can make it that far...


TUS is also under 120 miles from PHX. It probably leaks a bit.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:04 am

adamh8297 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Tuscon - Q1 - 90, Q2 - 90. Average fare of $314 in Q1 and $355 in Q2 with AA having the largest market share in both quarters. The fare level is pretty high here. Not sure there is enough demand here to support daily service, but at least the demand is consistent throughout the year. If they added Tuscon, I'd imagine there will be a JFK flight here too.


One thing potentially going for this route would be the fact that Raytheon Missile Systems is based in Tucson, with the overall company headquarters being in Waltham, MA. That's got to drive some traffic that's higher value and more consistent than the typical tourism traffic. Whether it's enough to justify a flight is another matter. Perhaps if the A220 can make it that far...


TUS is also under 120 miles from PHX. It probably leaks a bit.


Leisure traffic, certainly. I doubt many business travelers are making the 2 hour drive up I-10, though.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:16 pm

Here are the next largest beyond perimeter markets from JFK. And I'm going to start listing PDEW info for them. Keep in mind for a lot of these markets, B6 runs a single daily flight with red-eye westbound flight. They don't have first class seating and dont' have connection itineraries that are more flexible with dep/arrival time (and also higher fared due to more than 1 flight). So their avg fare is always going to be lower than legacy avg fare on this type of routes. And they are never going to capture 50% of market share even if they are the only direct service due to their lack of presence in other airport and lack of 1-stop options.

PDX - Q1 - 543, Q2 - 791. Q1 avg fare $243 and Q2 avg fare $279. Similar to SEA, this is a very seasonal market. It's a pretty low fared market given the distance. An airline like B6 is not going to ever get to avg fare on a route like this with their late/late red-eye departure, O&D only itineraries and lack of first class seating. Given their general weakness in PDX, I don't see much changes here. This route is probably overserved. Maybe they can move this to A220 in low season and A321 in high season to improve margins.

SAT - Q1 - 484, Q2 - 589. Q1 avg fare $233 and Q2 avg fare $257. This is a smaller market than AUS, but the fare level are about the same. In Q2 of next year, there is 1 DL A320, 1 AA B737 and 2 UA flights(A319 + E70) currently scheduled. Given AA's general lack of competitiveness out of JFK, I can see them dropping this route pretty easily. It seems like if they are willing to enter this market, it would do at least as well as ABQ. They haven't focused on AUS for a while now, so why not take the plunge into SAT. A daily A320 on both JFK/BOS-SAT seems reasonable.

SMF - Q1 - 293, Q2 - 433. Q1 avg fare $229 and Q2 avg fare $278. B6 has monopoly from JFK. UA is also serving this route from EWR. B6 had 35% of market share in Q1 and 33% of market share in Q2. They had avg fare of $194 in Q1 and $234 in Q2. This is particularly profitable in Q2 due to the low unit cost of A321 with red-eye return. Notice how SMF avg fares is comparable to SAT despite being much longer flight?

PSP - Q1 - 238, Q2 - 174. Q1 avg fare $228 and Q2 avg fare $304. B6 faced competition from UA here. Now, this is a seasonal market from NYC that probably saw its fares went up after B6's JFK service finished for the season. B6 had avg fare of $176 in Q1 with 47% market share and avg fare of $214 in Q2 with 35% market share. It seemed like the UA compeitition really drove down fares this past Q1, which is probably why they gave up this route. In 2020, B6 should have NYC monopoly here again and their season is also finishing a little earlier than last year. Both of which should make this flight a little more profitable. I don't think they need to add service here. In fact, I've said in the past that they should probably can PSP.

ABQ - Q1 - 189, Q2 - 265. Q1 avg fare $220 and Q2 avg fare $255. B6 had 30% market share here in Q1 with fare of $177 and 35% in Q2 with fare of $206. Notice how it was higher than PSP despite being much shorter flight? Not a great performer. Maybe one they can add 2 to 4x weekly BOS service.

RNO - Q1 - 147, Q2 - 161. Q1 avg fare $266 and Q2 avg fare $261. B6 had 45% market share in Q1 with fare of $210 and 44% in Q2 with avg fare of $193. I really don't see this as a market they should keep around. It's not a large market and they have to price pretyt low to fill the flights.

Here is when things start to diverge between Q1/Q2. Q1 start seeing skiing towns now.
EGE - Q1 - 176 avg fare $460
JAC - Q1 - 129 avg fare $441, Q2 - 54 avg fare $421
Aspen - Q1 - 118 avg fare $484, Q2 - 49 avg fare $494
BZN - Q1 - 100 avg fare $414, Q2 - $67 avg fare $355
HDN - Q1 - 43 avg fare $352.
I put HDN just to illustrate how much less demand there is to HDN vs the other skiing towns. Not really sure what kind of package HDN gave to B6, but I'd have to think adding 2x weekly BZN service from JFK/BOS is a better move. Or they could try one of EGE/JAC.

Q2 saw
TUS - 146 avg fare $328
ELP - 145 avg fare $352
everything else was under 100
 
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:47 am

Here is DY website translation:
Marty St. George new commercial director in Norwegian

Press release
December 4, 2019 5:02 PM CET
Norwegian makes changes to top management and appoints Marty St. George as new acting commercial director. St. George has long experience in commercial aviation and until recently was the commercial director of the US airline JetBlue Airways.

Commercial Director Helga Bollmann Leknes in Norway has decided to leave the company after two years. Bollmann Leknes was given a different role in the top management, but chose to explore other alternatives outside of Norwegian. Bollmann Leknes started in Norwegian in 2017 as HR director and was also given responsibility as commercial director in November 2018.

- I would like to thank Helga Bollmann Leknes for her contribution to Norwegian, both as commercial director and HR director. I think it is a pity that she chose to leave the company, but I wish her good luck for the future, ”says acting CEO of the Norwegian, Geir Karlsen.

- It was a wonderful experience to be part of Norwegian and I am grateful for the opportunities that Bjørn Kjos has given me. I wish Norwegian and all the great employees good luck in the future, ”says Helga Bollmann Leknes.

Temporary Commercial Director with long experience in commercial aviation

Marty St. George has more than 30 years of experience in commercial aviation. Until recently, he was commercial director for the US airline JetBlue Airways. He has also played a key role in United Airlines and US Airways, with responsibilities for various commercial functions such as revenue management, route planning and marketing.

- I am very pleased that Marty St. George has agreed to take on this important role. Strengthening our commercial position and increasing revenues are crucial to achieving the strategy from growth to profitability. I am convinced that St. George, with his broad experience from major US airlines, will be valuable to the company, "says Geir Karlsen.

Norwegian is one of the largest low cost airlines in the world with more than 37 million travelers in 2018. Today, Norwegian operates more than 500 routes to more than 150 destinations in Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Thailand, USA and South America. America. Norwegian has a fleet of approximately 170 aircraft with an average age of 3.8 years and is one of the most modern and environmentally friendly airlines in the world. For the second time, Norwegian has been named the most environmentally friendly transatlantic airline by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). In 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, Norwegian was named the world's best low cost airline on long-haul routes, according to airline passengers who voted in the highly acclaimed SkyTrax World Airline Awards. Norwegian is also voted Europe's best low-cost carrier by SkyTrax six times. Norwegian has approximately 11,000 dedicated employees.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:32 pm

That's interesting news on MSG. Good choice for DY I guess. B6 network planning has some interesting/strange adjustments since he left.

Alright, out of EWR. It appears they have started to use gate 30 and have also used gate 15 a little bit today. So they are partly using 15, 16, 16A, 17, 18 and 30 today. They are at 30 flights today.

My point of posting all the thin BOS market is to show how many markets out there B6 is simply not capturing because they don't have any service to those cities. Right now, it seems like AA is capturing a large portion of that market still. Next, I'm going to take a look at Orlando data and see which cities they can try to add when they decide to expand their MCO operations.
 
transportgeek
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:12 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
That's interesting news on MSG. Good choice for DY I guess. B6 network planning has some interesting/strange adjustments since he left.


Did not understand why they let him go. I think some other members of the management team should’ve been turned over before MSG
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:38 pm

transportgeek wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's interesting news on MSG. Good choice for DY I guess. B6 network planning has some interesting/strange adjustments since he left.


Did not understand why they let him go. I think some other members of the management team should’ve been turned over before MSG


Upper management realized his talents exceeded their own. They became threatened. He was the single - most beloved executive in the B6 C - suite, admired by every labor group and should have been promoted long before "others" were.
 
User avatar
FBWFTW
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:09 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:44 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
transportgeek wrote:
tphuang wrote:
That's interesting news on MSG. Good choice for DY I guess. B6 network planning has some interesting/strange adjustments since he left.


Did not understand why they let him go. I think some other members of the management team should’ve been turned over before MSG


Upper management realized his talents exceeded their own. They became threatened. He was the single - most beloved executive in the B6 C - suite, admired by every labor group and should have been promoted long before "others" were.



That last quote wins....

I’m as a loyal B6 flier as they come, I’ve flown almost exclusively B6 and B6 partners for the last 12 years. I’ve got the Plus card, I’ve got a bunch of employee friends at B6 from pilots/FA’s to ramp/tech and other areas. I never heard one bad thing about MSG-he was loved by all of them as a good guy (and local to BOS-from the South Shore as well) He was always down to earth from what I could tell-willing to banter with pax/B6 fans (hockey fans too) on Twitter.

Clearly he outshined people-well one person from what I’ve heard particularly:

JG

I’ve never heard ONE GOOD WORD about her from the rip-other than she’s a woman in a high ranking commercial aviation position and has been featured as such many times (RGN comes to mind-they’ve got some excellent pieces on women in aviation)

Some of the things I’ve heard about her to date

-Clueless
-No idea how to run an airline
-Couldn’t help get us on time if her life depended on it
-Cares only about herself and nobody else.
-Would/will stab RH in the back as soon as she can
-Will prob be the “fall person” for some screw up a-la Neeleman
-MULTIPLE expletive laced tirades which I won’t repeat here
-Will be the reason we get hostilely taken over

Sounds like B6 shouldn’t have let MSG get away-but there could be a bigger plan at play here with him going to Norwegian and B6 partnering with them. That’s my hope as a B6 loyalist-that the #B6BringBackMarty campaign will begin in earnest soon. Moxy may enter the picture at some point here as well. The employees and customers need him (or someone like him) back in the “B-Suite” sooner rather than later. I’m holding out hope it won’t be Oscar Munoz (aka the oft rumored UA merger) as much as I admire Oscar as well.
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tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:21 pm

Continuing on the series of looking at PDEW for different markets, the next one to look at is MCO. I will start off at the top. For Quarter, it will show PDEW and avg fare. This list does not including PR, which is one of the biggest markets out of MCO. This is ranked based on Q1

NYC - Q1 - 5416/$165, Q2 - 5807/$175. B6 had the largest market share in both quarters with 43% and 41%. I don't think anything needs to change here other than their usual capacity increases over time.

DC Area - Q1 2446/$163, Q2 - 2626/$169. B6 is pretty small here with just over 10% of market share. It was the low fare carrier in Q1 and slightly higher than AA in Q2. It did all of this with E90s, which is obviously very high cost. I think the move here is to obvious upgauge and lower cost. One of the 4 flights is getting A321 next year and that will help them grow here. More upgauging would help.

BOS - Q1 2358/$185, Q2 - $2310/$187. Already explored earlier. I think they can build on their market share of around 40%.

Chicago - Q1 1986/$193, Q2 - 2110/$178. B6 does not serve here. WN has the largest market share at 36%. Hard to see B6 will do well on this route, but seems like a route they need to have token service if they intend to build up MCO. A daily A220 would at least be competitive.

LA Basin - Q1 1464/$228, Q2 - 1581/$242. This has to be one of the largest bloodbath in the country for a market of this size. Everyone loses money here. Another route that A220 or all-core A321 might be better off. Low cost approach seems to be the only way here.

PHL - Q1 1407/$170, Q2 - 1562/$168. Another market B6 doesn't serve. AA obviously dominates here with close to 50% market share. Another market where I think they need token presence here of a daily A220.

MSP - Q1 1375/$188, Q2 - 893/$161 - Another market B6 doesn't serve and I don't think they should serve here. Case in point, SY had avg fare of $152 in Q1 and $112 in Q2 for a route that's $1310. I doubt B6 will do better than that. Large market (especially in Q1), but seems like a disaster in waiting compared to even PHL.

DTW - Q1 1309/$185, Q2 - 1016/$168 - This market actually does look better than MSP. The fares are higher despite being longer distance and having plenty of NK capacity bringing fare down. The probably for B6 here is that NK has 27% market share in Q1 and 22% market share in Q2. These are the factors on why they left DTW-FLL and why WN quit on DTW-MCO. Seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I'd try DTW-FLL again before this.

ATL - Q1 1126/$160, Q2 - 1146/$153 - They serve this market minimally and at huge loss. I wouldn't be surprised if they quit here. They are just offering token service with E90. Probably will move to A220 at some point if they intend to grow MCO. I'd serve ATL ahead of DTW/MSP since I think there is more local traffic from MCO to ATL than the other 2 cities. Afer all, the goal is to grow relevance in MCO. MSP/DTW demand are probably overwhelmingly dominated by the other end.

Dallas - Q1 1052/$233, Q2 - 1220/$218 - this is a market I think they should serve if they want to grow MCO. The fare level here is higher than DTW/MSP/PHL. It's pretty high. More importantly, NK gets higher fare here than other market that it serves, which indicates the floor for LCC like B6 is higher than other markets. And NK only has 10 to 12% market vs its 25% market share to DTW, SY's 33% market share to MSP and F9's 19 to 25% market share to PHL. ULCC really hasn't taken over this market.

Denver - Q1 1001/$199, Q2 - 984/$186 - Another market that seems to be really difficult since it already has a dominant legacy, a dominant LCC and a dominant ULCC. F9 has 26 to 27% market share and WN has 35 to 38% market share. Not seeing much rooom here for B6.

Bay Area - Q1 752/$275, Q2 - 862/$270. If I had to guess, the demand here is probably a lot more even than the markets above due to proximity of Disneyland, but that's just a complete wild guess. The fares here are a lot higher than LA Basin. There are fewer player here with UA dominating market at 39% in Q1 and 47% in Q2. WN also does well with over $220 fare in both quarters. I think this is a route B6 has to serve if it wants to grow MCO. There is probably some demand to tech hub of the country from Orlando and the fares are not rock bottom.

Houston - Q1 748/$203, Q2 - 831/$192. Similar market dynamics here as Dallas with legacy + WN + small NK (10%?) presence. The market is a little smaller and the fare is lower than Dallas. To me, smaller market means less space to absorb B6 presence in the market. If I had to pick between the two, I'd go with Dallas to enter.

Hartford - Q1 737/$168, Q2 - 776/$171. B6 is actually the high fared carrier here. This is one market they should build on their strength by either upgauging to A321s or adding a 3rd flight.
 
b6bos143
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:36 pm

FBWFTW wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
transportgeek wrote:

Did not understand why they let him go. I think some other members of the management team should’ve been turned over before MSG


Upper management realized his talents exceeded their own. They became threatened. He was the single - most beloved executive in the B6 C - suite, admired by every labor group and should have been promoted long before "others" were.



That last quote wins....

I’m as a loyal B6 flier as they come, I’ve flown almost exclusively B6 and B6 partners for the last 12 years. I’ve got the Plus card, I’ve got a bunch of employee friends at B6 from pilots/FA’s to ramp/tech and other areas. I never heard one bad thing about MSG-he was loved by all of them as a good guy (and local to BOS-from the South Shore as well) He was always down to earth from what I could tell-willing to banter with pax/B6 fans (hockey fans too) on Twitter.

Clearly he outshined people-well one person from what I’ve heard particularly:

JG

I’ve never heard ONE GOOD WORD about her from the rip-other than she’s a woman in a high ranking commercial aviation position and has been featured as such many times (RGN comes to mind-they’ve got some excellent pieces on women in aviation)

Some of the things I’ve heard about her to date

-Clueless
-No idea how to run an airline
-Couldn’t help get us on time if her life depended on it
-Cares only about herself and nobody else.
-Would/will stab RH in the back as soon as she can
-Will prob be the “fall person” for some screw up a-la Neeleman
-MULTIPLE expletive laced tirades which I won’t repeat here
-Will be the reason we get hostilely taken over

Sounds like B6 shouldn’t have let MSG get away-but there could be a bigger plan at play here with him going to Norwegian and B6 partnering with them. That’s my hope as a B6 loyalist-that the #B6BringBackMarty campaign will begin in earnest soon. Moxy may enter the picture at some point here as well. The employees and customers need him (or someone like him) back in the “B-Suite” sooner rather than later. I’m holding out hope it won’t be Oscar Munoz (aka the oft rumored UA merger) as much as I admire Oscar as well.


And of course, like so many other things posted on this site, the claim in this post about "others being threatened" and everything about Joanna is hearsay or opinion with no proof to back any of it.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 278
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:09 pm

b6bos143 wrote:
FBWFTW wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:

Upper management realized his talents exceeded their own. They became threatened. He was the single - most beloved executive in the B6 C - suite, admired by every labor group and should have been promoted long before "others" were.



That last quote wins....

I’m as a loyal B6 flier as they come, I’ve flown almost exclusively B6 and B6 partners for the last 12 years. I’ve got the Plus card, I’ve got a bunch of employee friends at B6 from pilots/FA’s to ramp/tech and other areas. I never heard one bad thing about MSG-he was loved by all of them as a good guy (and local to BOS-from the South Shore as well) He was always down to earth from what I could tell-willing to banter with pax/B6 fans (hockey fans too) on Twitter.

Clearly he outshined people-well one person from what I’ve heard particularly:

JG

I’ve never heard ONE GOOD WORD about her from the rip-other than she’s a woman in a high ranking commercial aviation position and has been featured as such many times (RGN comes to mind-they’ve got some excellent pieces on women in aviation)

Some of the things I’ve heard about her to date

-Clueless
-No idea how to run an airline
-Couldn’t help get us on time if her life depended on it
-Cares only about herself and nobody else.
-Would/will stab RH in the back as soon as she can
-Will prob be the “fall person” for some screw up a-la Neeleman
-MULTIPLE expletive laced tirades which I won’t repeat here
-Will be the reason we get hostilely taken over

Sounds like B6 shouldn’t have let MSG get away-but there could be a bigger plan at play here with him going to Norwegian and B6 partnering with them. That’s my hope as a B6 loyalist-that the #B6BringBackMarty campaign will begin in earnest soon. Moxy may enter the picture at some point here as well. The employees and customers need him (or someone like him) back in the “B-Suite” sooner rather than later. I’m holding out hope it won’t be Oscar Munoz (aka the oft rumored UA merger) as much as I admire Oscar as well.


And of course, like so many other things posted on this site, the claim in this post about "others being threatened" and everything about Joanna is hearsay or opinion with no proof to back any of it.

Yeah, I’m not sure you’ll find a lot of fact/news sources on what employees think of JG or how she’s actually doing with the operation. But if you want some facts, go look at the operation and let us know how B6 does with on time performance (I believe that would be a good metric by which the chief operating officer would be measured)? Employees generally don’t put their name/face to publicly bashing their president/COO, regardless of how incompetent he or she may be. So yeah, a lot of it is opinion, based on their perception of the work environment and operation. But the fact remains that B6 employees regularly compliment MSG and bash JG on this forum, among others. If the COO office was an elected one, MSG would be there...but it’s not. As far as the threatening...that isn’t hearsay it’s fact, but I won’t get into details on this forum.
Last edited by JoseSalazar on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:13 pm

b6bos143 wrote:
FBWFTW wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:

Upper management realized his talents exceeded their own. They became threatened. He was the single - most beloved executive in the B6 C - suite, admired by every labor group and should have been promoted long before "others" were.



That last quote wins....

I’m as a loyal B6 flier as they come, I’ve flown almost exclusively B6 and B6 partners for the last 12 years. I’ve got the Plus card, I’ve got a bunch of employee friends at B6 from pilots/FA’s to ramp/tech and other areas. I never heard one bad thing about MSG-he was loved by all of them as a good guy (and local to BOS-from the South Shore as well) He was always down to earth from what I could tell-willing to banter with pax/B6 fans (hockey fans too) on Twitter.

Clearly he outshined people-well one person from what I’ve heard particularly:

JG

I’ve never heard ONE GOOD WORD about her from the rip-other than she’s a woman in a high ranking commercial aviation position and has been featured as such many times (RGN comes to mind-they’ve got some excellent pieces on women in aviation)

Some of the things I’ve heard about her to date

-Clueless
-No idea how to run an airline
-Couldn’t help get us on time if her life depended on it
-Cares only about herself and nobody else.
-Would/will stab RH in the back as soon as she can
-Will prob be the “fall person” for some screw up a-la Neeleman
-MULTIPLE expletive laced tirades which I won’t repeat here
-Will be the reason we get hostilely taken over

Sounds like B6 shouldn’t have let MSG get away-but there could be a bigger plan at play here with him going to Norwegian and B6 partnering with them. That’s my hope as a B6 loyalist-that the #B6BringBackMarty campaign will begin in earnest soon. Moxy may enter the picture at some point here as well. The employees and customers need him (or someone like him) back in the “B-Suite” sooner rather than later. I’m holding out hope it won’t be Oscar Munoz (aka the oft rumored UA merger) as much as I admire Oscar as well.


And of course, like so many other things posted on this site, the claim in this post about "others being threatened" and everything about Joanna is hearsay or opinion with no proof to back any of it.


Being that this is a public site and I'm a front line career employee at B6 I'm not about to go into detail about how the general consensus outside of LIC (and perhaps within, who knows) is that our President is a talentless hack who never actually earned the right to sit where she currently does.
 
FARmd90
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:47 pm

In other news jetBlue has started their longest route to date with the JFK-GYE (blocked at 7hrs) inaugural today. Flight is operated by the 321NEO and tail 2002J had the honor of working the first #1769 flight. It is currently in the air.
 
santi319
Posts: 1058
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:10 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
In other news jetBlue has started their longest route to date with the JFK-GYE (blocked at 7hrs) inaugural today. Flight is operated by the 321NEO and tail 2002J had the honor of working the first #1769 flight. It is currently in the air.

The flight time is only 5:46
 
trueblew
Posts: 166
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:14 am

santi319 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
In other news jetBlue has started their longest route to date with the JFK-GYE (blocked at 7hrs) inaugural today. Flight is operated by the 321NEO and tail 2002J had the honor of working the first #1769 flight. It is currently in the air.

The flight time is only 5:46


However, at 2,970 miles it is still the longest route to date.
 
speedbird2263
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:25 am

To add to news of the JFK-GYE inaugural, on a somewhat related note, N2038J was also delivered today (12/05/2019) XFW-JFK. That should make it the 5th 321NEO delivered to B6 to date. 1 more delivery is expected before year end. Going forward one hopes to see more interesting & profitable routes opened up as a result of the NEO’s performance.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:11 am

How did B6 get gate 30 at EWR?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:53 am

Not sure how B6 go gate 30, but they are a NYC carrier and the only non-ULCC looking to expand outside of UA. Maybe that's looked upon fondly. Right now, their growth at EWR is not only constrained by not having more gates, but also FAA holding upon flight requests for certain hours, the need to continue to build up BOS and not having enough aircraft. I'd be curious to see where else they chose to add. If they can get up to BOS-EWR to 10x daily or more with reliable schedule combined with LGA, they might be able to compete more effectively in NYC-BOS shuttle market.

Pretty expected by GYE, GEO/GYE seemed to be the 2 most potentially profitable market that A321NEO allowed them to serve. I wonder what's else they could serve without needing at LR. ANC is too far and same with LIM. BOG is possible, but it has enough competition. I don't think they will serve CCS given the current situation there. I don't think there is enough demand for MDE. I would love to see UIO if NEO can make it there. They could try MCO-LIM.
 
speedbird2263
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
Pretty expected by GYE, GEO/GYE seemed to be the 2 most potentially profitable market that A321NEO allowed them to serve. I wonder what's else they could serve without needing at LR. ANC is too far and same with LIM. BOG is possible, but it has enough competition. I don't think they will serve CCS given the current situation there. I don't think there is enough demand for MDE. I would love to see UIO if NEO can make it there. They could try MCO-LIM.


The current High Density A321 NEOs are being delivered with only 1 ACT, I’d imagine that any Mint configured NEOs would be delivered with at least 2 ACTs, as are the current Mint 321 CEOs. Each additional ACT adds ~ another 5400lbs of fuel so I suspect a JFK-LIM would be possible in a Mint configured NEO with 2 ACTs. The LR is essentially adding a 3rd ACT.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:11 pm

Now, for the next top markets from Orlando.

PIT - Q1 631/$164, Q2 651/$162. WN dominates here with high 70s in market share and NK is around 10% depending on the quarter. Given that B6 was forced to retreat from PIT-FLL, hard to see them adding this flight. But this is a larger market than South Florida and there is no legacy service here. They could try a daily A320 here, but I put that as remote.

IND - Q1 633/$158, Q2 627/$174. Another market dominated by WN with close to 70% market share. Of course, NK also got in this market. If B6 does enter IND, I think they would eventually try this as well as FLL.

BNA - Q1 619/$167, Q2 671/$165. Another market dominated by WN with close to 80% market share and F9 as the ULCC competition. Given WN's dominance on both end, I think it's a market not worth entering.

BUF - Q1 600/$166, Q2 557/$163. Given the distance, this is a pretty low fare market compared to other ones. Obviously B6 already serves this route and I don't think they need more than that daily flight here.

MKE - Q1 587/$180, Q2 476/$169 - Another market dominated by WN with close to 70% market share. Given that MKE is pretty far from getting added, I think no B6 service here for the foreseable future.

LAS - Q1 549/$199, Q2 612/$209 - WN has 40% market share here and NK has around 20%. This might be a market they should get into. They've done pretty well on FLL-LAS. WN is typically weaker with transcon or near-transon. And there is probably more demand to LAS out of Orlando than the cities before this. So I do think daily A320 service is warranted.

CLE - Q1 545/$164, Q2 545/$144 - UA has 28% market share and NK has about 21% market share. This is a route they really should've entered already. NK has added service due to other's inaction. I think the fare level here is pretty good when factoring in how much of that is due to ULCC's low fares. They should really be able to fill a daily A320 here. I don't know why they have not tried this market yet. No WN presence or strong legacy presence here.

After this, a lot of markets where WN just dominates and B6 has very little relevance in those markets. I will pick out a few more I think they should try out.
RDU - Q1 506/$162, Q2 498/$153 - Fare here is boosted by DL's RJ service. B6 has down very well on all RDU routes thus far. I think a daily E90/A220 would work well here. I'm surprised they have not added service to this point. I would imagine there is some demand to RDU from MCO
PHX - Q1 481/$282, Q2 465/$277 - Pretty high fare here in general, but also for WN (which I think is closer to what B6 would generate). This route has close to the highest avg fare of any route out of Orlando. The initial numbers of PHX-FLL have been reasonable. There is no ULCC presence here. Good route for B6 to try out.
SAN - Q1 333/$241, Q2 366/$235 - WN/AS both have daily service here. The fare level for WN here is about the same as LAS, so it's a similar situation. It could be a route they try with A320.
MEM - Q1 231/$184, Q2 238/$168 - Another market dominated by WN with over 50% market share. It has 2 daily WN flights with no ULCC competition. The fares are pretty high, so probably has more demand through lower fares, which B6 could stimulate here. If they do enter MEM, then they should try MCO.

Overall, it seems like WN just makes a lot of money in the middle of the country where it faces minimal competition. A lot of those places simply don't even have B6 service. and the places where B6 already serve mostly have already a lot of legacy/WN/ULCC competition.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3199
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
Now, for the next top markets from Orlando.
.


Is PVD broken our separately or is it lumped in with BOS on that report? I know for FLL PVD is one of the highest average fares outside of BOS and NYC but curious how MCO compares.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:04 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Now, for the next top markets from Orlando.
.


Is PVD broken our separately or is it lumped in with BOS on that report? I know for FLL PVD is one of the highest average fares outside of BOS and NYC but curious how MCO compares.

Q2 yields out of PVD
FLL - $170
MCO - $159
so FLL does a little better than MCO. Based on above discussion, pretty sure PVD is lumped with rest of Boston.
As a comparison out of BOS
FLL - $198
MCO - $177
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
PHL - Q1 1407/$170, Q2 - 1562/$168. Another market B6 doesn't serve. AA obviously dominates here with close to 50% market share. Another market where I think they need token presence here of a daily A220.


You think seasonal service would be worth it? To be fair AA has connecting traffic as well. I'm pretty sure MCO is the number one destination out of PHL.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:56 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
tphuang wrote:
PHL - Q1 1407/$170, Q2 - 1562/$168. Another market B6 doesn't serve. AA obviously dominates here with close to 50% market share. Another market where I think they need token presence here of a daily A220.


You think seasonal service would be worth it? To be fair AA has connecting traffic as well. I'm pretty sure MCO is the number one destination out of PHL.

Orlando is not as seasonal of a market as South Florida is, so I think it would need to be year round if they tried it. And I think they need to sustain 2x daily to FLL even in low seasons. A220 to both FLL/MCO would do wonders to their performance.

I'm going to go over South Florida next.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:02 pm

Next to look at is what markets can be added from FLL domestically or could use more capacity. I will skip through some markets where I don't think they need to change service much like NYC/BOS and other ones like DTW where they recently cut.

Washington DC - Q1 2751/$197, Q2 2798/$199 - A very profitable market for B6 that's dominated by AA at DCA-MIA and WN at BWI-FLL. Both have about 1/3 of the market. B6 dominates DCA-FLL with a smaller share of the overall market of DCA/IAD/BWI-FLL/MIA. They added that extra flight this year, but I think they really need to start upgauging here. I'm not sure if the plan is to move to A220 eventually or to A320 or A321. The market certainly can support the additional capacity. I'm not sure if the continued usage of E90 here is due to gate/terminal constraints, but if they do have some A320/A321 freed up from new deliveries, they should start to upgauge DCA-FLL to grow. Eventually, it will be moved to at least A220, which would be 40% capacity bump over what it is now. I don't know if they have any plan to restart BWI-FLL or IAD at some point. Seems like DCA is it in this market for now. B6's position as dominant carrier on DCA-FLL will get stronger over time as the market grows.

Chicago - Q1 2454/$205, Q2 2196/$200. This is a much tougher market for B6 that has mentioned before have improved in performance over time. AA is retreating more to MIA, whereas UA is bulking up it's Chicago presence. I think long term, ORD will probably be seeing most if not all A220 flights. Seems like a market where they should add a flight as their performance here continue to improve.

ATL - Q1 2104/$158, Q2 2423/$154. This is a market dominated by DL as you might imagine. B6 is a very smaller player here and would probably have been the low fare carrier on this route if they had made the minimum market share threshold. They have performed well enough here that I think a 3rd flight is warranted. They should not put E90 on this route given the cost pressure from other players. A220 would make sense here and so would another A320.

LA Basin - Q1 1836/$313, Q2 1836/#10. Obviously one of their most profitable routes out of FLL due to mint. They are the high fare carrier here. I think they can keep adding more mint flights here and try to push off AS/NK. They are at 4x daily now. Would 6x daily be too much? I think they should explore that.

Philadelphia - Q1 1495/$184, Q2 1490/$183. This is a much harder market with AA dominating with 2/3 of the market and NK capturing a good chunk also. To me, it's between WN/B6 on who sticks around. NK isn't going anywhere. B6 has been slowly gaining in yield vs WN in this market. I think they should retain their frequency here and maybe go with A321 in peak season. It's a market that I think they are about breaking even and should continue to build on.

Bay Area - Q1 1095/$315, Q2 1028/$328. This is another market where they are the high fare carrier due to mint. They have added an all-core A321 here instead of a 3rd daily mint service. Given lack of competitive response from UA/AA, I think they can continue to gain in this market and pull more premium passengers from AA. They can probably add a 4th flight here down the road and become the market leader here.

Denver - Q1 1069/$220, Q2 876/$200. This is quite a low fare market due to all the LCC and ULCC competition from F9/NK and WN. I think they should probably stay away from this route.

Dallas - Q1 1052/$266, Q2 1179/$250. This is a really high fare market due to AA's dominance. WN had avg fare of $207 in Q1, which is also quite high. Even if B6 can get around $160 here, it will be a market they should try out. I think a daily A320 could work here, since it's a pretty large market. Among the legacies dominated markets, this along with CLT have some of the highest fares.

MSP - Q1 946/$237, Q2 479/$228. It's interesting how the demand halved from Q1 to Q2. Really not a lot of market here in summer time. For that reason, I don't think it's a good idea to try this. They can probably fill the plane in winter time, but anytime outside of that would be a huge struggle.

Houston - Q1 882/$214, Q2 1007/$196. It's interesting how Dallas fares are so much higher than Houston. Not worth trying.

CLE - Q1 567/$177, Q2 500/$163. This is not a high fare market. NK has been aggressively adding here. This is a route that B6 should look to add a second flight. There is no dominating presence here from legacies or WN. they can be the high fare carrier here.

Hartford - Q1 556/$180, Q2 489/$186. B6 has the largest market share here. BDL is simply a place they should continue to add. Either A321 or a 3rd A320 could both work in a market they dominate.

RDU - Q1 552/$177, Q2 597/$177. B6 has done very well with E90 in this market. They should move to A320 here or A220 when that comes. There is no reason they can't fill more seats here.
 
BunkerF16
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Next to look at is what markets can be added from FLL domestically or could use more capacity. I will skip through some markets where I don't think they need to change service much like NYC/BOS and other ones like DTW where they recently cut.

Washington DC - Q1 2751/$197, Q2 2798/$199 - A very profitable market for B6 that's dominated by AA at DCA-MIA and WN at BWI-FLL. Both have about 1/3 of the market. B6 dominates DCA-FLL with a smaller share of the overall market of DCA/IAD/BWI-FLL/MIA. They added that extra flight this year, but I think they really need to start upgauging here. I'm not sure if the plan is to move to A220 eventually or to A320 or A321. The market certainly can support the additional capacity. I'm not sure if the continued usage of E90 here is due to gate/terminal constraints, but if they do have some A320/A321 freed up from new deliveries, they should start to upgauge DCA-FLL to grow. Eventually, it will be moved to at least A220, which would be 40% capacity bump over what it is now. I don't know if they have any plan to restart BWI-FLL or IAD at some point. Seems like DCA is it in this market for now. B6's position as dominant carrier on DCA-FLL will get stronger over time as the market grows.

Chicago - Q1 2454/$205, Q2 2196/$200. This is a much tougher market for B6 that has mentioned before have improved in performance over time. AA is retreating more to MIA, whereas UA is bulking up it's Chicago presence. I think long term, ORD will probably be seeing most if not all A220 flights. Seems like a market where they should add a flight as their performance here continue to improve.

ATL - Q1 2104/$158, Q2 2423/$154. This is a market dominated by DL as you might imagine. B6 is a very smaller player here and would probably have been the low fare carrier on this route if they had made the minimum market share threshold. They have performed well enough here that I think a 3rd flight is warranted. They should not put E90 on this route given the cost pressure from other players. A220 would make sense here and so would another A320.

LA Basin - Q1 1836/$313, Q2 1836/#10. Obviously one of their most profitable routes out of FLL due to mint. They are the high fare carrier here. I think they can keep adding more mint flights here and try to push off AS/NK. They are at 4x daily now. Would 6x daily be too much? I think they should explore that.

Philadelphia - Q1 1495/$184, Q2 1490/$183. This is a much harder market with AA dominating with 2/3 of the market and NK capturing a good chunk also. To me, it's between WN/B6 on who sticks around. NK isn't going anywhere. B6 has been slowly gaining in yield vs WN in this market. I think they should retain their frequency here and maybe go with A321 in peak season. It's a market that I think they are about breaking even and should continue to build on.

Bay Area - Q1 1095/$315, Q2 1028/$328. This is another market where they are the high fare carrier due to mint. They have added an all-core A321 here instead of a 3rd daily mint service. Given lack of competitive response from UA/AA, I think they can continue to gain in this market and pull more premium passengers from AA. They can probably add a 4th flight here down the road and become the market leader here.

Denver - Q1 1069/$220, Q2 876/$200. This is quite a low fare market due to all the LCC and ULCC competition from F9/NK and WN. I think they should probably stay away from this route.

Dallas - Q1 1052/$266, Q2 1179/$250. This is a really high fare market due to AA's dominance. WN had avg fare of $207 in Q1, which is also quite high. Even if B6 can get around $160 here, it will be a market they should try out. I think a daily A320 could work here, since it's a pretty large market. Among the legacies dominated markets, this along with CLT have some of the highest fares.

MSP - Q1 946/$237, Q2 479/$228. It's interesting how the demand halved from Q1 to Q2. Really not a lot of market here in summer time. For that reason, I don't think it's a good idea to try this. They can probably fill the plane in winter time, but anytime outside of that would be a huge struggle.

Houston - Q1 882/$214, Q2 1007/$196. It's interesting how Dallas fares are so much higher than Houston. Not worth trying.

CLE - Q1 567/$177, Q2 500/$163. This is not a high fare market. NK has been aggressively adding here. This is a route that B6 should look to add a second flight. There is no dominating presence here from legacies or WN. they can be the high fare carrier here.

Hartford - Q1 556/$180, Q2 489/$186. B6 has the largest market share here. BDL is simply a place they should continue to add. Either A321 or a 3rd A320 could both work in a market they dominate.

RDU - Q1 552/$177, Q2 597/$177. B6 has done very well with E90 in this market. They should move to A320 here or A220 when that comes. There is no reason they can't fill more seats here.



Appreciate these analyses. Can you run the numbers between FLL and DTW? JB had a daily flight between these cities for a while but canceled it last Jan. I figured it would be similar to CLE, so I'm curious why they abandoned DTW but kept CLE. Thanks.
 
trueblew
Posts: 166
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
Next to look at is what markets can be added from FLL domestically or could use more capacity. I will skip through some markets where I don't think they need to change service much like NYC/BOS and other ones like DTW where they recently cut.

...

MSP - Q1 946/$237, Q2 479/$228. It's interesting how the demand halved from Q1 to Q2. Really not a lot of market here in summer time. For that reason, I don't think it's a good idea to try this. They can probably fill the plane in winter time, but anytime outside of that would be a huge struggle.


Since the MSP station has opened I'm shocked they haven't tried seasonal winter service to FLL, RSW and maybe TPA/SRQ. Minnesotans like cruises and many snowbird to the west coast of Florida.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:38 am

BunkerF16 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Next to look at is what markets can be added from FLL domestically or could use more capacity. I will skip through some markets where I don't think they need to change service much like NYC/BOS and other ones like DTW where they recently cut.

Washington DC - Q1 2751/$197, Q2 2798/$199 - A very profitable market for B6 that's dominated by AA at DCA-MIA and WN at BWI-FLL. Both have about 1/3 of the market. B6 dominates DCA-FLL with a smaller share of the overall market of DCA/IAD/BWI-FLL/MIA. They added that extra flight this year, but I think they really need to start upgauging here. I'm not sure if the plan is to move to A220 eventually or to A320 or A321. The market certainly can support the additional capacity. I'm not sure if the continued usage of E90 here is due to gate/terminal constraints, but if they do have some A320/A321 freed up from new deliveries, they should start to upgauge DCA-FLL to grow. Eventually, it will be moved to at least A220, which would be 40% capacity bump over what it is now. I don't know if they have any plan to restart BWI-FLL or IAD at some point. Seems like DCA is it in this market for now. B6's position as dominant carrier on DCA-FLL will get stronger over time as the market grows.

Chicago - Q1 2454/$205, Q2 2196/$200. This is a much tougher market for B6 that has mentioned before have improved in performance over time. AA is retreating more to MIA, whereas UA is bulking up it's Chicago presence. I think long term, ORD will probably be seeing most if not all A220 flights. Seems like a market where they should add a flight as their performance here continue to improve.

ATL - Q1 2104/$158, Q2 2423/$154. This is a market dominated by DL as you might imagine. B6 is a very smaller player here and would probably have been the low fare carrier on this route if they had made the minimum market share threshold. They have performed well enough here that I think a 3rd flight is warranted. They should not put E90 on this route given the cost pressure from other players. A220 would make sense here and so would another A320.

LA Basin - Q1 1836/$313, Q2 1836/#10. Obviously one of their most profitable routes out of FLL due to mint. They are the high fare carrier here. I think they can keep adding more mint flights here and try to push off AS/NK. They are at 4x daily now. Would 6x daily be too much? I think they should explore that.

Philadelphia - Q1 1495/$184, Q2 1490/$183. This is a much harder market with AA dominating with 2/3 of the market and NK capturing a good chunk also. To me, it's between WN/B6 on who sticks around. NK isn't going anywhere. B6 has been slowly gaining in yield vs WN in this market. I think they should retain their frequency here and maybe go with A321 in peak season. It's a market that I think they are about breaking even and should continue to build on.

Bay Area - Q1 1095/$315, Q2 1028/$328. This is another market where they are the high fare carrier due to mint. They have added an all-core A321 here instead of a 3rd daily mint service. Given lack of competitive response from UA/AA, I think they can continue to gain in this market and pull more premium passengers from AA. They can probably add a 4th flight here down the road and become the market leader here.

Denver - Q1 1069/$220, Q2 876/$200. This is quite a low fare market due to all the LCC and ULCC competition from F9/NK and WN. I think they should probably stay away from this route.

Dallas - Q1 1052/$266, Q2 1179/$250. This is a really high fare market due to AA's dominance. WN had avg fare of $207 in Q1, which is also quite high. Even if B6 can get around $160 here, it will be a market they should try out. I think a daily A320 could work here, since it's a pretty large market. Among the legacies dominated markets, this along with CLT have some of the highest fares.

MSP - Q1 946/$237, Q2 479/$228. It's interesting how the demand halved from Q1 to Q2. Really not a lot of market here in summer time. For that reason, I don't think it's a good idea to try this. They can probably fill the plane in winter time, but anytime outside of that would be a huge struggle.

Houston - Q1 882/$214, Q2 1007/$196. It's interesting how Dallas fares are so much higher than Houston. Not worth trying.

CLE - Q1 567/$177, Q2 500/$163. This is not a high fare market. NK has been aggressively adding here. This is a route that B6 should look to add a second flight. There is no dominating presence here from legacies or WN. they can be the high fare carrier here.

Hartford - Q1 556/$180, Q2 489/$186. B6 has the largest market share here. BDL is simply a place they should continue to add. Either A321 or a 3rd A320 could both work in a market they dominate.

RDU - Q1 552/$177, Q2 597/$177. B6 has done very well with E90 in this market. They should move to A320 here or A220 when that comes. There is no reason they can't fill more seats here.



Appreciate these analyses. Can you run the numbers between FLL and DTW? JB had a daily flight between these cities for a while but canceled it last Jan. I figured it would be similar to CLE, so I'm curious why they abandoned DTW but kept CLE. Thanks.


I've posted the numbers from last year, but B6 really struggled on FLL-DTW due to getting squeezed from DL on the top and NK from the bottom. It was really a hopeless situation with A320. CLE-FLL is a route where they can be the high fare carrier. It's not doing great, but well enough to not be in danger.

For MSP, I think JFK is the most logical. It's the route they will most likely do well on. Not sure about slots though. I'm going to go through within perimeter numbers soon. There is a couple of cities I think they should add service.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:26 pm

Some more markets out of South Florida. Based on a B6 presentation a while back only about 35 to 40% of traffic out of MIA on AA is O&D. For WN and NK, it’s about 75%. B6 was at over 82% a while back.

MSY - Q1 540/$165, Q2 572/$172 - This route currently has 3 WN flights, 4 AA flights (3xA319 + E75) and 2 NK A320s. B6 started with A320 and then down gauged to E90, which turned the performance around here. Long term, this is a A220 route clearly. Until then, I think they are doing well enough with E90 that they can add a second flight. There is definitely a lot of capacity here (a lot more than demand suggesting a lot of connection traffic). But it’s a large enough market where B6 can compete with a second flight in peak season.

TPA - Q1 473/$158, Q2 430/$166 - This route currently has 6 flights with AA (4 A319 + 2 737), 5 flights with WN and 2 with NK (A319 + A320). Another route that is obviously heavily dependent on connection traffic. It seems to me that B6 is missing out a lot of intra-Florida traffic and demand from central Florida to Latin America by not offering this. At some point, FLL needs to move away from 82% O&D to really thrive. They have the right aircraft E90 to start off with 2x daily.

IND - Q1 470/$209, Q2 412/$187 - Wn captured 43% of market in Q1 and 32% in Q2. G4 had 20% in Q1 and 29% in Q2. The fares for WN is about the average for those markets. This is a really high fare market for LCCs. I took a look at peak season in March/April. There are 3x daily from AA (1x 737, 1 E45, 1 E75), 2x WN (737) and 1x A320 from G4. So there is already 270 seats from AA, 300 seats from WN and 175 from G4. With 750 seats in total at 85% LF, about 635 passengers on these flights. If there are 500 PDEW during peak month, then there seems to be plenty of passengers doing connections here based on how many passengers are probably connecting at either end. I think there is enough space here for another carrier. There is a chance that will be NK. If B6 entered this market, 1x A320 from FLL could work if they can get there ahead of NK. That’s why I think they are missing out big time at IND by not entering the market sooner. The fare level is high here and WN is not a dominant carrier.

Seattle - Q1 - 427/$325, Q2 457/$318 - AS/AA are the dominant carriers here with around 36% market share each. AA offers 1x737-800 and AS offers 2x daily. To me, this is an obvious market for B6 to enter with either A220 or mint. The fare levels are really high. There is consistent demand here. A lot of people seem to be connecting on either end, so there is a lot of people doing connections rather than non-stop here. And they would be the fare leaders here if they entered with mint.

CMH - Q1 424/$203, Q2 358/$184 - WN captures 36 to 38% market share here and G4 captures around 11%. AA is using 3x E45s here, WN with 1x 737 and NK is now entering with 1x A320. Not more G4 here it seems like. So, there are basically about 150 seat from AA, 160 from WN and 175 from NK. Again, using 85% LF and connection numbers from above, you are looking at only about 250 PDEW carried by direct traffic. There seems to be market here for B6. The fares are pretty high overall and for WN. If they do enter CMH, 1x A320 from FLL seems an obvious move.

Again, it’s frustrating for me to see these really high fared markets in middle of the country where B6 is not participating. They have great point of sale than WN at south Florida. And they are slugging out with WN on these lower fared markets like AUS while too slow to enter new markets. I have wondered for a while how WN keeps going in FLL with their sub-performance in a lot of markets I looked at where they compete with B6. And it’s obvious that they just do really well in markets without B6 presence.

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