tphuang wrote:

Again, it’s frustrating for me to see these really high fared markets in middle of the country where B6 is not participating. They have great point of sale than WN at south Florida. And they are slugging out with WN on these lower fared markets like AUS while too slow to enter new markets. I have wondered for a while how WN keeps going in FLL with their sub-performance in a lot of markets I looked at where they compete with B6. And it’s obvious that they just do really well in markets without B6 presence.

Thank you for the analysis. They are always a great read.

But I think you answered your own question in this paragraph. B6 has great point of sale advantage for passengers from the South Florida area, but many of these flyover country markets have extensive demand TO South Florida and not vice versa. WN can take advantage of their well established reputation in the middle of the country to get their FFs to FLL for vacation, B6 would have to compete uphill. Not saying that they can't outrun WN off a route, but it would be much easier to run them off a route with bidirectional point of sale rather than snowbird traffic. A similar case could be made for MSP-Florida vs. DL.

I think this notion is also supported by the fact that B6 does better against WN in destinations that have a heavy FLL POS (E.g. SJU, CUN, PUJ).

tphuang wrote:

Seattle - Q1 - 427/$325, Q2 457/$318 - AS/AA are the dominant carriers here with around 36% market share each. AA offers 1x737-800 and AS offers 2x daily. To me, this is an obvious market for B6 to enter with either A220 or mint. The fare levels are really high. There is consistent demand here. A lot of people seem to be connecting on either end, so there is a lot of people doing connections rather than non-stop here. And they would be the fare leaders here if they entered with mint.
.

Leadership has indeed indicated this potential route is in consideration and fwiw I believe they’d do very well against AS with mint.

There are several markets out of FLL where WN dominates the other end. BNA, AUS, MSY, LAS for example where B6 has done reasonably well after they entered. WN is definitely not as dominant in IND and CMH as those markets. There really should be no reason B6 doesn’t try them. They even managed to somewhat turn ORD around after initial struggles. Anyways, a few remaining markets to look at.

JAX - Q1 337/$137, Q2 358/$128. This is going to be interesting now that both WN/NK has exited. B6 will be up to 4x E90 for much of next year and AA is at 2x E75 and 3x E45. So B6 will be offering more seats (400) than AA (300). Hard to see B6 not capturing bulk of the market now they no longer have to split FLL traffic and have a more competitive schedule to AA. If we assume 40% connection for AA and 80% connection for B6 on this route that is probably more O&D focused than TPA/MCO, then it no longer seems to be an overly served like it was after WN entered.

SDF - Q1 180/$215, Q2 196/$206. Currently served by 2 E75 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. So about 325 seats for a < 200 PDEW market. Not an underserved market, but I think this is one where if B6 entered with A220 or E90, it could push out G4. Given the high fare non-ULCC fares here, there is potential for more PDEW if B6 entered.

MEM - Q1 158//$227, Q2 188/$209. An even higher fared market than SDF with less service E75 + E45 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. Seems like another market that could be stimulated by B6 entrance. All these are markets B6 could fight for the Latin America connection traffic if it offered service here with E90/A220. I think G4 could get pushed out of these markets if things get tougher.

SMF - Q1 136/$307, Q2 118/$331. There is more demand here than I expected. There is no direct service here. I think this is a market B6 could stimulate with their typical red-eye return type of service on a seasonal/sub daily basis. Maybe A220 would be needed for this type of long thin routes with a a lot of 1-stop options.

TLH - Q1 103/$246, Q2 93/$227. Apparently, B6 was looking to serve TLH-FLL a while back, but didn’t pull the trigger. AA dominates the market here with 4x E45 service. Seems like a very high fared market that would have higher PDEW if stimulated with lower fare And B6 could certainly serve here with a daily E90.

BHM - Q1 99/$246, Q2 92/$227. Less service here from AA with 2xE45. Seems like an underserved market since the long direct service is getting less than half of the market. I think daily E90 service could do well given the high fares here.

Again, there are several other markets like STL/MKE/MCI, all WN strong stations to various degree, that they could enter, but really depends on what they want to do from BOS.

tphuang wrote:

There are several markets out of FLL where WN dominates the other end. BNA, AUS, MSY, LAS for example where B6 has done reasonably well after they entered. WN is definitely not as dominant in IND and CMH as those markets. There really should be no reason B6 doesn’t try them. They even managed to somewhat turn ORD around after initial struggles. Anyways, a few remaining markets to look at.

JAX - Q1 337/$137, Q2 358/$128. This is going to be interesting now that both WN/NK has exited. B6 will be up to 4x E90 for much of next year and AA is at 2x E75 and 3x E45. So B6 will be offering more seats (400) than AA (300). Hard to see B6 not capturing bulk of the market now they no longer have to split FLL traffic and have a more competitive schedule to AA. If we assume 40% connection for AA and 80% connection for B6 on this route that is probably more O&D focused than TPA/MCO, then it no longer seems to be an overly served like it was after WN entered.

SDF - Q1 180/$215, Q2 196/$206. Currently served by 2 E75 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. So about 325 seats for a < 200 PDEW market. Not an underserved market, but I think this is one where if B6 entered with A220 or E90, it could push out G4. Given the high fare non-ULCC fares here, there is potential for more PDEW if B6 entered.

MEM - Q1 158//$227, Q2 188/$209. An even higher fared market than SDF with less service E75 + E45 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. Seems like another market that could be stimulated by B6 entrance. All these are markets B6 could fight for the Latin America connection traffic if it offered service here with E90/A220. I think G4 could get pushed out of these markets if things get tougher.

SMF - Q1 136/$307, Q2 118/$331. There is more demand here than I expected. There is no direct service here. I think this is a market B6 could stimulate with their typical red-eye return type of service on a seasonal/sub daily basis. Maybe A220 would be needed for this type of long thin routes with a a lot of 1-stop options.

TLH - Q1 103/$246, Q2 93/$227. Apparently, B6 was looking to serve TLH-FLL a while back, but didn’t pull the trigger. AA dominates the market here with 4x E45 service. Seems like a very high fared market that would have higher PDEW if stimulated with lower fare And B6 could certainly serve here with a daily E90.

BHM - Q1 99/$246, Q2 92/$227. Less service here from AA with 2xE45. Seems like an underserved market since the long direct service is getting less than half of the market. I think daily E90 service could do well given the high fares here.

Again, there are several other markets like STL/MKE/MCI, all WN strong stations to various degree, that they could enter, but really depends on what they want to do from BOS.

The problem with the Florida flying is it's so price sensitive. AA and DL sell tons of passive 1 stop capacity through CLT and ATL. People will often take a stop to avoid $20.

Varsity1 wrote:

The problem with the Florida flying is it's so price sensitive. AA and DL sell tons of passive 1 stop capacity through CLT and ATL. People will often take a stop to avoid $20.

In addition to DL and AA offering 1-stop connections to the MIA/FLL market through its CLT and ATL hubs, WN still has more market share on domestic air travel out of FLL than B6 does.

WN also already serves FLL nonstop from some markets not served by B6 such as CMH, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and SAT.

This week in OAG

B6 BNA-BOS MAR 3>1.9[2]
B6 BOS-BUF JUL 5>4[5]
B6 BOS-CHS MAR 1.4>2[2]
B6 BOS-SDQ APR 1.5>1.1[1.0] JUL 3>2[1.7]
B6 BOS-TPA MAR 5>7[5]
B6 CUN-FLL JUN 3>2[1.6] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2] SEP 0.8>0.5[1.1]
B6 EWR-FLL APR 6>5[6]
B6 EWR-MCO APR 7>6[6]
B6 EWR-TPA MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2]
B6 FLL-UIO AUG 1.0>1.7[2] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 JFK-PAP APR 2>1.2[1.1]
B6 JFK-POP JUN 1.7>1.0[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ JUN 2>1.7[3]
B6 JFK-SAV JUN 2>1.3[2]
B6 LGB-SEA APR 1.6>2[1.9]

It continues to astound me they can't even sustain 6 flights a day on EWR-FLL in April. interesting move to go 3x daily on EWR-TPA when that's what JFK is at. I could see JFK-SAV on the chopping block at some point. I'd rather see them go 3x JFK-ATL.

On BOS-TPA, I see them now at 7x in March and 6x in April. That seems like a lot even for peak season.
BOS-BUF looks to still be 5x in July for most dates.
FLL-UIO, looks like bringing back the 2nd flight for Aug/Sep

Varsity1 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

There are several markets out of FLL where WN dominates the other end. BNA, AUS, MSY, LAS for example where B6 has done reasonably well after they entered. WN is definitely not as dominant in IND and CMH as those markets. There really should be no reason B6 doesn’t try them. They even managed to somewhat turn ORD around after initial struggles. Anyways, a few remaining markets to look at.

JAX - Q1 337/$137, Q2 358/$128. This is going to be interesting now that both WN/NK has exited. B6 will be up to 4x E90 for much of next year and AA is at 2x E75 and 3x E45. So B6 will be offering more seats (400) than AA (300). Hard to see B6 not capturing bulk of the market now they no longer have to split FLL traffic and have a more competitive schedule to AA. If we assume 40% connection for AA and 80% connection for B6 on this route that is probably more O&D focused than TPA/MCO, then it no longer seems to be an overly served like it was after WN entered.

SDF - Q1 180/$215, Q2 196/$206. Currently served by 2 E75 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. So about 325 seats for a < 200 PDEW market. Not an underserved market, but I think this is one where if B6 entered with A220 or E90, it could push out G4. Given the high fare non-ULCC fares here, there is potential for more PDEW if B6 entered.

MEM - Q1 158//$227, Q2 188/$209. An even higher fared market than SDF with less service E75 + E45 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. Seems like another market that could be stimulated by B6 entrance. All these are markets B6 could fight for the Latin America connection traffic if it offered service here with E90/A220. I think G4 could get pushed out of these markets if things get tougher.

SMF - Q1 136/$307, Q2 118/$331. There is more demand here than I expected. There is no direct service here. I think this is a market B6 could stimulate with their typical red-eye return type of service on a seasonal/sub daily basis. Maybe A220 would be needed for this type of long thin routes with a a lot of 1-stop options.

TLH - Q1 103/$246, Q2 93/$227. Apparently, B6 was looking to serve TLH-FLL a while back, but didn’t pull the trigger. AA dominates the market here with 4x E45 service. Seems like a very high fared market that would have higher PDEW if stimulated with lower fare And B6 could certainly serve here with a daily E90.

BHM - Q1 99/$246, Q2 92/$227. Less service here from AA with 2xE45. Seems like an underserved market since the long direct service is getting less than half of the market. I think daily E90 service could do well given the high fares here.

Again, there are several other markets like STL/MKE/MCI, all WN strong stations to various degree, that they could enter, but really depends on what they want to do from BOS.

The problem with the Florida flying is it's so price sensitive. AA and DL sell tons of passive 1 stop capacity through CLT and ATL. People will often take a stop to avoid $20.

Of course it is, but the flip side of that argument is there is demand there that could switch to non-stop from 1-stop. And that B6 has a lot lower cost and the right aircraft A220 to deal with the price sensitive crowd. And that if they are building Latam hub at FLL, they need all the connection options they can get.

Also interesting article here
https://viewfromthewing.com/american-we ... op-trying/
it's good news that AA is basically cutting premium service from most of the MIA-LAX flights. B6 should use this opportunity to continue try to capture more lucrative types. That means more mint flights to LAX/SFO/SEA. They should consider mint to places like LIM. AA runs a lot of the older 757 and 767 on these MIA to Latam routes. That's an opportunity for B6.

Sounds like a plan, but AAs cnc from CA and Deep South is more than B6 can handle.

tphuang wrote:

This week in OAG

B6 BNA-BOS MAR 3>1.9[2]
B6 BOS-BUF JUL 5>4[5]
B6 BOS-CHS MAR 1.4>2[2]
B6 BOS-SDQ APR 1.5>1.1[1.0] JUL 3>2[1.7]
B6 BOS-TPA MAR 5>7[5]
B6 CUN-FLL JUN 3>2[1.6] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2] SEP 0.8>0.5[1.1]
B6 EWR-FLL APR 6>5[6]
B6 EWR-MCO APR 7>6[6]
B6 EWR-TPA MAR 2>3[2] APR 2>3[2]
B6 FLL-UIO AUG 1.0>1.7[2] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 JFK-PAP APR 2>1.2[1.1]
B6 JFK-POP JUN 1.7>1.0[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ JUN 2>1.7[3]
B6 JFK-SAV JUN 2>1.3[2]
B6 LGB-SEA APR 1.6>2[1.9]

It continues to astound me they can't even sustain 6 flights a day on EWR-FLL in April. interesting move to go 3x daily on EWR-TPA when that's what JFK is at. I could see JFK-SAV on the chopping block at some point. I'd rather see them go 3x JFK-ATL.

On BOS-TPA, I see them now at 7x in March and 6x in April. That seems like a lot even for peak season.
BOS-BUF looks to still be 5x in July for most dates.
FLL-UIO, looks like bringing back the 2nd flight for Aug/Sep

Varsity1 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

There are several markets out of FLL where WN dominates the other end. BNA, AUS, MSY, LAS for example where B6 has done reasonably well after they entered. WN is definitely not as dominant in IND and CMH as those markets. There really should be no reason B6 doesn’t try them. They even managed to somewhat turn ORD around after initial struggles. Anyways, a few remaining markets to look at.

JAX - Q1 337/$137, Q2 358/$128. This is going to be interesting now that both WN/NK has exited. B6 will be up to 4x E90 for much of next year and AA is at 2x E75 and 3x E45. So B6 will be offering more seats (400) than AA (300). Hard to see B6 not capturing bulk of the market now they no longer have to split FLL traffic and have a more competitive schedule to AA. If we assume 40% connection for AA and 80% connection for B6 on this route that is probably more O&D focused than TPA/MCO, then it no longer seems to be an overly served like it was after WN entered.

SDF - Q1 180/$215, Q2 196/$206. Currently served by 2 E75 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. So about 325 seats for a < 200 PDEW market. Not an underserved market, but I think this is one where if B6 entered with A220 or E90, it could push out G4. Given the high fare non-ULCC fares here, there is potential for more PDEW if B6 entered.

MEM - Q1 158//$227, Q2 188/$209. An even higher fared market than SDF with less service E75 + E45 from AA and 1 A320 from G4. Seems like another market that could be stimulated by B6 entrance. All these are markets B6 could fight for the Latin America connection traffic if it offered service here with E90/A220. I think G4 could get pushed out of these markets if things get tougher.

SMF - Q1 136/$307, Q2 118/$331. There is more demand here than I expected. There is no direct service here. I think this is a market B6 could stimulate with their typical red-eye return type of service on a seasonal/sub daily basis. Maybe A220 would be needed for this type of long thin routes with a a lot of 1-stop options.

TLH - Q1 103/$246, Q2 93/$227. Apparently, B6 was looking to serve TLH-FLL a while back, but didn’t pull the trigger. AA dominates the market here with 4x E45 service. Seems like a very high fared market that would have higher PDEW if stimulated with lower fare And B6 could certainly serve here with a daily E90.

BHM - Q1 99/$246, Q2 92/$227. Less service here from AA with 2xE45. Seems like an underserved market since the long direct service is getting less than half of the market. I think daily E90 service could do well given the high fares here.

Again, there are several other markets like STL/MKE/MCI, all WN strong stations to various degree, that they could enter, but really depends on what they want to do from BOS.

The problem with the Florida flying is it's so price sensitive. AA and DL sell tons of passive 1 stop capacity through CLT and ATL. People will often take a stop to avoid $20.

Of course it is, but the flip side of that argument is there is demand there that could switch to non-stop from 1-stop. And that B6 has a lot lower cost and the right aircraft A220 to deal with the price sensitive crowd. And that if they are building Latam hub at FLL, they need all the connection options they can get.

Also interesting article here
https://viewfromthewing.com/american-we ... op-trying/
it's good news that AA is basically cutting premium service from most of the MIA-LAX flights. B6 should use this opportunity to continue try to capture more lucrative types. That means more mint flights to LAX/SFO/SEA. They should consider mint to places like LIM. AA runs a lot of the older 757 and 767 on these MIA to Latam routes. That's an opportunity for B6.

Just be aware that the 757 and 767 won't operate for ever

I’m not sure “pushing out G4” is an easy of as task as it used to be. Their aircraft and reliability have improved and they can better adjust capacity to match demand year round in ways that a 1x daily from FLL or MCO can’t

speedbird2263 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Seattle - Q1 - 427/$325, Q2 457/$318 - AS/AA are the dominant carriers here with around 36% market share each. AA offers 1x737-800 and AS offers 2x daily. To me, this is an obvious market for B6 to enter with either A220 or mint. The fare levels are really high. There is consistent demand here. A lot of people seem to be connecting on either end, so there is a lot of people doing connections rather than non-stop here. And they would be the fare leaders here if they entered with mint.
.

Leadership has indeed indicated this potential route is in consideration and fwiw I believe they’d do very well against AS with mint.

I think the reason this hasn't happened yet is range limitations on the fleet. FLL-SEA is longer than BOS-SFO, which up until JFK-GYE was the longest route in the system and since they increased frequencies on these transcons with 320s we're back to those annoying tech-stops this time of the year when a non-sharklet-equipped classic shows up at the gate. You'd need at least a 321 with the 1 additional fuel tank (i.e. All-core config) to make this work year round. The MINT 321s have 2 ACTS good for 10,000 lb extra gas. Now that the NEO deliveries are coming along, I think FLL-SEA could come along as well. Being that there's no more MINT aircraft to go around without cannibalizing existing routes makes this hard to debut without first testing the market, IMHO.

BlueBaller wrote:

speedbird2263 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Seattle - Q1 - 427/$325, Q2 457/$318 - AS/AA are the dominant carriers here with around 36% market share each. AA offers 1x737-800 and AS offers 2x daily. To me, this is an obvious market for B6 to enter with either A220 or mint. The fare levels are really high. There is consistent demand here. A lot of people seem to be connecting on either end, so there is a lot of people doing connections rather than non-stop here. And they would be the fare leaders here if they entered with mint.
.

Leadership has indeed indicated this potential route is in consideration and fwiw I believe they’d do very well against AS with mint.

I think the reason this hasn't happened yet is range limitations on the fleet. FLL-SEA is longer than BOS-SFO, which up until JFK-GYE was the longest route in the system and since they increased frequencies on these transcons with 320s we're back to those annoying tech-stops this time of the year when a non-sharklet-equipped classic shows up at the gate. You'd need at least a 321 with the 1 additional fuel tank (i.e. All-core config) to make this work year round. The MINT 321s have 2 ACTS good for 10,000 lb extra gas. Now that the NEO deliveries are coming along, I think FLL-SEA could come along as well. Being that there's no more MINT aircraft to go around without cannibalizing existing routes makes this hard to debut without first testing the market, IMHO.

I agree with needing the 2 ACTs and Mint. IMO they should have taken more Mint configured aircraft, evidenced by the fact they are adding all-core 321s on Mint Transcons to increase frequency. Problem now is that any Mint configured NEOs going forward will have to use a new Mint seat, I’d imagine to make use of the new ACF and Phase 2 seats. I believe I read somewhere that the first 15 NEOs are expected to be all core before any Mints. It’s interesting how not that long ago B6 only had two configs across two fleets to today’s plethora of configs with a 3rd fleet on the way. I understand the difference are transient but interesting nonetheless.

speedbird2263 wrote:

BlueBaller wrote:

speedbird2263 wrote:

Leadership has indeed indicated this potential route is in consideration and fwiw I believe they’d do very well against AS with mint.

I think the reason this hasn't happened yet is range limitations on the fleet. FLL-SEA is longer than BOS-SFO, which up until JFK-GYE was the longest route in the system and since they increased frequencies on these transcons with 320s we're back to those annoying tech-stops this time of the year when a non-sharklet-equipped classic shows up at the gate. You'd need at least a 321 with the 1 additional fuel tank (i.e. All-core config) to make this work year round. The MINT 321s have 2 ACTS good for 10,000 lb extra gas. Now that the NEO deliveries are coming along, I think FLL-SEA could come along as well. Being that there's no more MINT aircraft to go around without cannibalizing existing routes makes this hard to debut without first testing the market, IMHO.

I agree with needing the 2 ACTs and Mint. IMO they should have taken more Mint configured aircraft, evidenced by the fact they are adding all-core 321s on Mint Transcons to increase frequency. Problem now is that any Mint configured NEOs going forward will have to use a new Mint seat, I’d imagine to make use of the new ACF and Phase 2 seats. I believe I read somewhere that the first 15 NEOs are expected to be all core before any Mints. It’s interesting how not that long ago B6 only had two configs across two fleets to today’s plethora of configs with a 3rd fleet on the way. I understand the difference are transient but interesting nonetheless.

They are adding 2 mint frequencies by next summer. One for JFK-SAN in May and one for BOS-LAX in June/July I think. Hard to see them doing that without getting 2 mint configured NEO deliveries.

speedbird2263 wrote:

It’s interesting how not that long ago B6 only had two configs across two fleets to today’s plethora of configs with a 3rd fleet on the way. I understand the difference are transient but interesting nonetheless.

How long until the 320s have to retire? Oh well, I don't want to think about it.

Please take our E190s...they are falling apart daily...on Saturday 10 e190s on Mx

CobaltScar wrote:

speedbird2263 wrote:

It’s interesting how not that long ago B6 only had two configs across two fleets to today’s plethora of configs with a 3rd fleet on the way. I understand the difference are transient but interesting nonetheless.

How long until the 320s have to retire? Oh well, I don't want to think about it.

Can the earliest a320 last until late 2020s? If a220-500 is available by then, thats the obvious choice to replace a320. Unless a220 really doesn't live up to it's promise, I don't see why JetBlue would not pick up all it's options.

The casm advantage on that is really great.

tphuang wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

speedbird2263 wrote:

It’s interesting how not that long ago B6 only had two configs across two fleets to today’s plethora of configs with a 3rd fleet on the way. I understand the difference are transient but interesting nonetheless.

How long until the 320s have to retire? Oh well, I don't want to think about it.

Can the earliest a320 last until late 2020s? If a220-500 is available by then, thats the obvious choice to replace a320. Unless a220 really doesn't live up to it's promise, I don't see why JetBlue would not pick up all it's options.

The casm advantage on that is really great.

They are doing cabin refresh mods on some of the earliest 500-series airframes, so I think it’s fair to assume they will be around til late 2020s at least. Replacement with A220-500 makes sense whenever that becomes available.

B6 announced today that Gate 30 at EWR is theirs.

Look for more flights yada yada

jfklganyc wrote:

B6 announced today that Gate 30 at EWR is theirs.

Look for more flights yada yada

Nice!! Where did you see this?

Next, I want to take a look at within perimeter NYC markets and where they could possibly add. I'm only going to look at select large markets that makes sense from JFK. I'm ignoring the BOS/Florida markets where they already have large presence, since those get tweaked based on demand. I'm also ignoring the really short distance markets since LGA is preferred for those markets.

Chicago - Q1 4611/$171, Q2 6437/$196 - UA is the dominant player here with a little over 1/3 of the market. B6 doesn't really try to compete here with just 2 E90s during winter and 2 A320s or 1 A320/E09 in summer time. their limitation is obviously lack of LGA slots and lack of ORD gate space. Long term, this should be all A220 market for them. They should easily be able to support 4 flights in peak months if they had the gate space. Their fares here in Q2 of $161 is pretty good when considering it's almost all O&D traffic and they were running half E90/half A320, whereas DL was running a mix of RJ and 717 here. They got about the same fare here as WN. Like I said before, they can try a schedule of 8x BOS, 4x JFK, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x SJU for 2 gates in warm weather month and then a schedule of 6x BOS, 3x JFK, 2x FLL, 1x MCO and 1x SJU in winter time. Is it really that hard to have a schedule like that to get a second gate @ ORD?

Atlanta - Q1 3687/$191, Q2 4463/$204 - Obviously a market dominated by DL with close to 60% market share. Everyone else is probably under 15% market share. B6 got average fare of $162, which is pretty good given the distance of the flight. The fares are quite a bit lower than average, but that's due to their operation of A320s here vs AA/UA running RJs. This is a market I'd really like to see them upgauge to A321 and/or add a third flight. There is no reason they can't do that. I don't think they need to keep serving JFK-SAV. If they can improve schedule with those slots used for SAV, it would be a win imo.

Dallas - Q1 2560/$230, Q2 3110/$243. Probably their largest hole out of NYC. It's one they don't see particularly eager to fill. I see that WN got fare of $160 in Q1 and $188 in Q2. That's probably what B6 could expect if they tried this route. As I've said many times, I think this is a route they need to serve even if it's just token presence like Houston. On trunk routes like this, selling out 1 or 2 flights a day should be very easy for B6.

RDU - Q1 1300/$164, Q2 1783/$174. B6 got average fare here of $160 in Q2, which again is very goo dwhen considering that they operated a mixture of E90 and A320 while everyone else that had higher yield was operating regional jet from LGA/JFK. AA did operate some E90s on LGA also, but had lower fares. So this is quite a profitable market for them. I think the natural move here is to go to all A320 (or A220) in summer season and keep E90 around for winter. Given that AA is probably going to exit JFK-RDU, a 3rd flight here should be a no-brainer.

Nashville - Q1 1018/$206, Q2 1451/$223. This is another market where Q2/3 has a lot more demand than Q1. It's also another market I think they'd do well at, given it's further out than RDU. The standard 2x daily here should work. WN had average fare of $189 out of LGA and OO had average fare of $250 out of LGA and $220 out of JFK. Based on comparable market, B6 with 2 A320s should be able to get around WN fare level from JFK. Even if the entire market drops a little bit from B6 competition, that would still be very healthy yield.

MSP - Q1 912/$291, Q2 1431/$280. DL has 2/3 of the market share here. And if we just look at LGA/JFK, they basically have a monopoly on this very large market. AA does seem 2 have 2 regional flights on LGA-MSP, but that's minimal resistance. This is a very high fare market. Especially with the departure of SY, I think 2 A320s here from B6 should do well.

St Louis - Q1 605/$236, Q2 832/$246. This is a little lower fared than MSP, but still very high fares when compared to comparable distance market. And there are no flights from JFK. I only added this, because STL is a market they should consider adding from BOS. If they add BOS, they should also add one flight from JFK.

IND - Q1 525/$225, Q2 690/$246. This is another market that has very high fares with no low cost competition. There is flights from JFK for probably connection reasons. At some point, I do expect AA to also exit JFK-IND. If they do enter BOS-IND, 1 flight from JFK would make sense.

So what I'm hoping to see here if they can get a few more slots.
ORD +1
ATL +1
SAV -2
DFW +1
RDU +1
BNA +2
MSP +2
STL +1
IND +1
I understand that B6 has been reluctant to add more within perimeter routes, but their transcon routes that have no direct competition have lower fares than these within perimeter markets. There is a reason no one else flies them. They've had success pretty much every large market they've tried out of JFK, including their abrupt exist of CLT. I would much rather see them give up on JFK-RNO/OAK and try something like BNA or MSP

What’s with ending SAV? I don’t understand it

They have been serving it for years

A 3rd flight to FLL begins tomorrow 12/10 @ 925a.


ATL - Q1 2104/$158, Q2 2423/$154. This is a market dominated by DL as you might imagine. B6 is a very smaller player here and would probably have been the low fare carrier on this route if they had made the minimum market share threshold. They have performed well enough here that I think a 3rd flight is warranted. They should not put E90 on this route given the cost pressure from other players. A220 would make sense here and so would another A320.

Simply saying that they are slot restricted in peak summer schedule. I would much rather see them use it on ATL or BNA or MSP rather than SAV. Of course, if they can actually get some slots from AA, that would be a different story.

I wonder if they will make extend that third FLL-ATL flight to more month. Current schedule has one flight that gets into ATL at 1 am. Not great schedule at all.

A 3rd ATL - JFK would be great!

The 3rd nonstop from FLL gets in at 1130p and is popular with cruise traffic. The later arrival connects in BOS. How long the 3rd flight lasts depends on the airport and gate space. B6 is willing, but additional gate time can be difficult to come by. All the gates they have in D/E are common use. I've seen angry Spirit customers repeatedly changing gates and concourses after a delay.

jfklganyc wrote:

What’s with ending SAV? I don’t understand it

They have been serving it for years

I’ve checked schedule..SAV is still on schedule. Not sure what your seeing?

Blueknows wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

What’s with ending SAV? I don’t understand it

They have been serving it for years

I’ve checked schedule..SAV is still on schedule. Not sure what your seeing?

I think there is a mis-understanding of what was said. the comment was aligned to the fact that with extra slots, tphuang feels SAV should be cut, or it's a mis-print with the negative and he actually meant +2 rather than -2. It's not that SAV has been cut or is about to, it was in the context of adjusting those other markets, but I he will need to confirm if my rationale is correct.

VS4ever wrote:

Blueknows wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

What’s with ending SAV? I don’t understand it

They have been serving it for years

I’ve checked schedule..SAV is still on schedule. Not sure what your seeing?

I think there is a mis-understanding of what was said. the comment was aligned to the fact that with extra slots, tphuang feels SAV should be cut, or it's a mis-print with the negative and he actually meant +2 rather than -2. It's not that SAV has been cut or is about to, it was in the context of adjusting those other markets, but I he will need to confirm if my rationale is correct.

you are absolutely on the mark here. I'm just a guy ranting what I think they could do with the limited number of slots they have at JFK. At some point, they also need to find some slots for TATL flights in peak summer season. That would be interesting. Seems like AA is more committed to pretty much everywhere over JFK these days. B6 should keep calling AA about those unused slots.

Does anyone remember how many flights JetBlue had scheduled on Saturday November 30 between LAX and BOS? Three or four?

JFK-PWM has been reduced to 2x daily for summer of 2020, with some days showing only 1x to Portland

Seems to me that B6's days at PWM may be numbered. For comparison, that route used to run 4-5x daily year round.

Fex180 wrote:

JFK-PWM has been reduced to 2x daily for summer of 2020, with some days showing only 1x to Portland

Seems to me that B6's days at PWM may be numbered. For comparison, that route used to run 4-5x daily year round.

Agreed. With Cape Air operating PWM-BOS year round, I can see B6 dropping PWM in favor of connections through BOS.

DELTA777 wrote:

Fex180 wrote:

JFK-PWM has been reduced to 2x daily for summer of 2020, with some days showing only 1x to Portland

Seems to me that B6's days at PWM may be numbered. For comparison, that route used to run 4-5x daily year round.

Agreed. With Cape Air operating PWM-BOS year round, I can see B6 dropping PWM in favor of connections through BOS.

Speaking purely anecdotally as a Portlander, B6 lost a lot of their local customer base when they transitioned to seasonal service. F9, WN and to a lesser extent hourly buses to BOS have really taken away most of B6's origin traffic from PWM.

Are you sure about this? I still see JFK-PWM at 3x daily for the days I checked on google flights. Where are you seeing 2x daily? I'm not actually against that, but I just don't see it.

As for BOS-LAX, maybe 3x? I see coming Saturday as 3x for coming week. So I assume it has been 3x all along.

Dieuwer wrote:

Does anyone remember how many flights JetBlue had scheduled on Saturday November 30 between LAX and BOS? Three or four?

I'm showing three flights Nov 30: 0600, 1304, and 2237 departures.

Slots at JFK are not all that hard to come by for one offs here and there

Plus, B6 has 178 or so slots. Count the flights on a daily basis...Other than peak summer they are almost never near that number

In fairness, the number of flights during off-peak has grown.

Furthermore, they can schedule 20 European departures at 1001 pm if they wanted to as slots arent in effect then.

You see this lately with a much wider bank of 11pm hour departures to the islands...Of course those flights use a slot on the way back in post 6am

What about the TATL arrivals? Would they not count toward slot allocations? What times are the arrival slots most available to be grabbed? There are so many markets I think they can enter or add frequency for if they had more year round slots available. Getting up to 200 flights a day in peak summer should be no problem for them if they had the slots. I'd like to even see something like summer season JFK-ANC. There is definitely demand from May to September for that type of flight.

Not a great November for B6
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64568
traffic report is out and load factor is down 2.7% YoY. And now the RASM guidance is -3.5 to -1.5% vs previous guidance of -3.5% to -0.5%

tphuang wrote:

Not a great November for B6
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64568
traffic report is out and load factor is down 2.7% YoY. And now the RASM guidance is -3.5 to -1.5% vs previous guidance of -3.5% to -0.5%

B6 needs more Mint, less economy class. Perhaps they should consider a mini-Mint class (4 seats) upfront on certain planes/routes.

tphuang wrote:

Not a great November for B6
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64568
traffic report is out and load factor is down 2.7% YoY. And now the RASM guidance is -3.5 to -1.5% vs previous guidance of -3.5% to -0.5%

I'm sure that 99.9% completion factor didn't help the RASM numbers.

Dieuwer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Not a great November for B6
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64568
traffic report is out and load factor is down 2.7% YoY. And now the RASM guidance is -3.5 to -1.5% vs previous guidance of -3.5% to -0.5%

B6 needs more Mint, less economy class. Perhaps they should consider a mini-Mint class (4 seats) upfront on certain planes/routes.

They certainly need more Mint, however last I heard they're not taking anymore Mint-configured aircraft (until presumably the LRs arrive). Have there been any statements or allusions from B6 recently that they may have more Mint-configured aircraft coming sooner?

Why are they sending core 321's on transcons is beyond me. Mint it up and get it together B6.

Have any of you noticed inconsistencies in catering on your flights by the way? Just curious.

CobaltScar wrote:

Why are they sending core 321's on transcons is beyond me. Mint it up and get it together B6.

Have any of you noticed inconsistencies in catering on your flights by the way? Just curious.

I was on a B6 flight last week. The FA arrived at my row with a mostly empty basket of snacks (I think there were two pretzel bags and one Cheese-It). "Yeah there's not much left," she said. Also, the Wi-Fi was out of order. So much for "unlimited brand name snacks" and free Wi-Fi.

B6 is reducing most of the LGA-Florida market and going to 10 daily to Boston

Major changes at LGA

Any Florida flying will be 321

flyby519 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Can the earliest a320 last until late 2020s? If a220-500 is available by then, thats the obvious choice to replace a320. Unless a220 really doesn't live up to it's promise, I don't see why JetBlue would not pick up all it's options.

The casm advantage on that is really great.

They are doing cabin refresh mods on some of the earliest 500-series airframes, so I think it’s fair to assume they will be around til late 2020s at least. Replacement with A220-500 makes sense whenever that becomes available.

Just flew on N561JB this week (twice in fact -- same plane both ways!), which has the new Phase 2 refreshed interior. The refresh has been very effective -- for anyone who's not enough of a plane spotter to pay attention to things like galley lights, it feels like a new plane.

Unless I'm mistaken, LH and AC are both operating A320s with 1990 delivery dates today. So no good reason B6 can't get ten years out of these if it wants to, and if the fuel efficiency makes sense.

Alright, so let's digest this
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64578

Big news is 10x daily on BOS-LGA. Not sure which Florida route gets cut here. Probably PBI, but we will see. Not sure if they will shift more to EWR/JFK as the result of this. BOS-EWR was suppose to be up to 8 this summer, but maybe it will be back down to 7 now?

AUS get 3rd flight. Hard to believe there will be as many flight on BOS-AUS as JFK-AUS. Maybe it will draw some people who would otherwise fly into SAT or surrounding area.

As for rest of this
Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT)
Chicago’s O'Hare International Airport (ORD)
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (CLE)
Denver International Airport (DEN)
Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW)
Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)
Nantucket Memorial Airport (ACK)
Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)
Philadelphia International Airport (PHL)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX)
San Diego International Airport (SAN)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
Mineta San Jose International Airport (SJC)
Seattle–Tacoma International Airport (SEA)
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)

I'm sure they are mostly just adds we've already seen. DTW is a new one. The change YoY is going from 4x on peak days to all except Sat. Not sure if they will go 5x now? Same with PHL/ORD/EWR, they already added flight this year. Not sure if this means even more adds. Either way, I don't see how they stay below 190 daily flights with all these changes. They were already at 184 in their summer schedule.

trueblew wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

Why are they sending core 321's on transcons is beyond me. Mint it up and get it together B6.

Have any of you noticed inconsistencies in catering on your flights by the way? Just curious.

I was on a B6 flight last week. The FA arrived at my row with a mostly empty basket of snacks (I think there were two pretzel bags and one Cheese-It). "Yeah there's not much left," she said. Also, the Wi-Fi was out of order. So much for "unlimited brand name snacks" and free Wi-Fi.

I hope they do some kind of cabin refresh on the all-core A321CEOs to phase 2 standard. Not holding high hopes on that though.

tphuang wrote:

I hope they do some kind of cabin refresh on the all-core A321CEOs to phase 2 standard. Not holding high hopes on that though.

Agreed. This should be just as much a priority as the rest of the fleet, especially if brand consistency is to be taken seriously. IMO If no announcement is made close to the scheduled completion of all of the A320s, that will be unfortunate.

It looks like the 321neo won't be operating the BUR turns as planned. She's too heavy for the terminal ramps.

tphuang wrote:

Not a great November for B6
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64568
traffic report is out and load factor is down 2.7% YoY. And now the RASM guidance is -3.5 to -1.5% vs previous guidance of -3.5% to -0.5%

The "softer than expected close-in yields in late November" is concerning, although I would think it's due to potential travelers avoiding booking last-minute trips due to the largely bad weather across the entire country during the Thanksgiving weekend, and perhaps even cancelling trips. The 99.9% completion factor certainly doesn't help RASM (great for CASM though!). Another month of 80%+ OTP is a good sign.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, so let's digest this
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64578
[twoid][/twoid]
Big news is 10x daily on BOS-LGA. Not sure which Florida route gets cut here. Probably PBI, but we will see. Not sure if they will shift more to EWR/JFK as the result of this. BOS-EWR was suppose to be up to 8 this summer, but maybe it will be back down to 7 now?

AUS get 3rd flight. Hard to believe there will be as many flight on BOS-AUS as JFK-AUS. Maybe it will draw some people who would otherwise fly into SAT or surrounding area.

As for rest of this
Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT)
Chicago’s O'Hare International Airport (ORD)
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (CLE)
Denver International Airport (DEN)
Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW)
Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)
Nantucket Memorial Airport (ACK)
Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)
Philadelphia International Airport (PHL)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX)
San Diego International Airport (SAN)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
Mineta San Jose International Airport (SJC)
Seattle–Tacoma International Airport (SEA)
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)

I'm sure they are mostly just adds we've already seen. DTW is a new one. The change YoY is going from 4x on peak days to all except Sat. Not sure if they will go 5x now? Same with PHL/ORD/EWR, they already added flight this year. Not sure if this means even more adds. Either way, I don't see how they stay below 190 daily flights with all these changes. They were already at 184 in their summer schedule.

trueblew wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

Why are they sending core 321's on transcons is beyond me. Mint it up and get it together B6.

Have any of you noticed inconsistencies in catering on your flights by the way? Just curious.

I was on a B6 flight last week. The FA arrived at my row with a mostly empty basket of snacks (I think there were two pretzel bags and one Cheese-It). "Yeah there's not much left," she said. Also, the Wi-Fi was out of order. So much for "unlimited brand name snacks" and free Wi-Fi.

I hope they do some kind of cabin refresh on the all-core A321CEOs to phase 2 standard. Not holding high hopes on that though.

The 3x on BOSAUS seems to be retaliation against AA's announcement of 2x BOSAUS this week.

The 10x on BOSLGA should certainly help capture more lucrative traffic here. Although, it's a shame this will be at the expense of more LGA-Florida options. I suppose they are coming to the (fairly logical) conclusion that they can still control NYC-Florida pricing by dominating JFK/EWR flying.

BOS-AUS will now have 1,100 each way seats in a 300-400 PDEW market

That 99.9 percent completion factor was made possible via sending out some empty or nearly empty planes I bet!

RL757PVD wrote:

BOS-AUS will now have 1,100 each way seats in a 300-400 PDEW market

What was the PDEW between PVD-BWI before WN came along? Markets can be stimulated to accept the capacity they get.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

BOS-AUS will now have 1,100 each way seats in a 300-400 PDEW market

What was the PDEW between PVD-BWI before WN came along? Markets can be stimulated to accept the capacity they get.

BWI has a ton of connections and through flights though... theres limited connections on both ends. BOS-AUS is a 3-flight, 2 carrier market, not 7 flights on 4.