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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:53 am

Re ATL

I believe their only possible profitable route out of there is JFK.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a third daily added down the road like CHS.

And not surprised that it stays all Airbus
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:06 pm

Here is the numbers for NYC/BOS-SAN
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKSAN 2446 AA 17845 232.68 227.48 248.45 75.20% 161.6 124 89.03% 202.53 0.0828 70.02%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 49064 321.61 321.49 367.06 99.74% 159 343 89.96% 289.23 0.1182 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 93397 314.61 312.96 370.13 97.12% 170.7 591 92.60% 289.81 0.1185 100.20%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 27820 245.9 244.93 291.19 97.90% 175.4 181 87.64% 214.66 0.0885 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 UA 75756 378.03 375.82 420.2 95.02% 163.2 515 90.16% 338.82 0.1397 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 WN 14859 224.9 224.55 227.06 85.77% 173.7 96 89.13% 200.13 0.0825 N/A
BOSSAN 2588 AS 27232 300.3 299.08 341.02 97.08% 167.8 180 90.17% 269.68 0.1042 82.72%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 52499 351.59 351.5 359.54 98.94% 159 356 92.75% 326.01 0.126 100.00%


Also, I was really impressed with FLL performance this quarter. Couple of competitive routes to look at
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLORD 1182 AA 34034 200.29 197.32 213.62 81.81% 167.5 222 91.52% 180.59 0.1528 130.98%
FLLORD 1182 B6 24318 152.69 151.08 258.21 98.49% 150.5 177 91.26% 137.88 0.1166 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 66294 73.8 72.85 85.22 92.30% 197.5 360 93.26% 67.93 0.0575 49.27%
FLLORD 1182 UA 79159 207.83 207.06 228.65 96.43% 174.1 489 92.96% 192.47 0.1628 139.60%
FLLMDW 1167 WN 99186 183.14 183.97 174.44 91.23% 157.8 685 91.75% 168.8 0.1446 122.42%

This may not look that impressive, but it was easily their best performance on this route and the closest they've been to AA/UA/WN. And all this while AA, UA and NK have cut capacity here.

To Give an idea of how well they did here. In Q2 of last year,
B6 yield was $103, UA was $154 and AA was $150.
Q4 of last year,
B6 yield was $118, UA was $184 and AA was $177.
And Q1 of this year,
B6 yield was $125, UA was $195 and AA was $189 and WN was $180.
So compared to Q1, they managed to do better while competitors all did worse. Again, this is always going to be a route they struggle at given their lack of presence in ORD, but they have at least turned this around over the past couple of quarters. If they can keep this up, no reason they shouldn't add another flight next winter, especially if AA retreats to MIA out of ORD.

another one
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLATL 581 B6 47217 126.5 126.5 0 100.00% 150.2 361 87.08% 110.16 0.1896 100.00%
FLLATL 581 DL 440640 154.3 154.24 356.29 99.97% 197.9 2423 91.92% 141.77 0.244 128.70%
FLLATL 581 NK 125921 46.94 46.9 65.24 99.78% 173.3 802 90.62% 42.5 0.0731 38.58%
FLLATL 581 WN 112790 140.11 140.05 141.3 95.28% 151.1 843 88.56% 124.03 0.2135 112.59%
Again, another route where they have minimal presence on the other end. This was the highest yield I've seen them on this route. There is no reason for them to switch to E90 here. Even with all the connections they are probably selling here, this is at least breaking even. Keep in mind that last quarter, they were at $94 here while WN was at $122 and DL was at $153. So quite a large improvement.

another one
FLLSAN 2269 B6 19711 231.05 230.09 431.32 99.52% 150.9 143 91.36% 210.22 0.0926
Again while $210 doesn't seem like a lot, they were at $168 in Q2 of 2018 and $157 in Q3. It was up to 208 by Q4 and 191 in Q1 after they cut it to 4 flights a week. This was pretty good for 5x weekly. I see that they are going to almost daily for next May/June, which is an indication this is still performing. considering the awful red-eye arrival time into FLL, this is pretty good number.

another one where they looked to have been struggling a little with NK/WN competition and how strong they are at LAS
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24691 238.63 237.48 373.24 99.16% 150.9 178 91.90% 218.24 0.1004 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 30235 108.12 107.72 117.11 95.64% 182.3 182 91.13% 98.16 0.0452 44.98%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 25062 237.37 234.61 252.9 84.90% 153.9 171 95.26% 223.49 0.1028 102.40%
This was again the highest yield I've seen on this route. They also almost matched WN in yield which is impressive when you consider B6 have the red eye westbound flight.

Another one where they face strong NK/WN competition on both end. Really struggled until move to E90 here
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLMSY 674 B6 15796 164.59 164.59 0 100.00% 100.6 181 86.79% 142.85 0.2119 100.00%
FLLMSY 674 NK 54596 48.35 47.91 68.02 97.81% 176.7 363 85.12% 40.78 0.0605 28.55%
FLLMSY 674 WN 64817 155.81 154.24 181.19 94.18% 150 508 85.07% 131.21 0.1947 91.85%
Easily the highest yield they had here even accounting for the higher costs of E90. I saw a move to 2x here in November but no-follow up after that. I think they should try 2x here during peak seasons to MSY. They definitely make money at this yield level.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
Here is the numbers for NYC/BOS-SAN
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKSAN 2446 AA 17845 232.68 227.48 248.45 75.20% 161.6 124 89.03% 202.53 0.0828 70.02%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 49064 321.61 321.49 367.06 99.74% 159 343 89.96% 289.23 0.1182 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 93397 314.61 312.96 370.13 97.12% 170.7 591 92.60% 289.81 0.1185 100.20%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 27820 245.9 244.93 291.19 97.90% 175.4 181 87.64% 214.66 0.0885 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 UA 75756 378.03 375.82 420.2 95.02% 163.2 515 90.16% 338.82 0.1397 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 WN 14859 224.9 224.55 227.06 85.77% 173.7 96 89.13% 200.13 0.0825 N/A
BOSSAN 2588 AS 27232 300.3 299.08 341.02 97.08% 167.8 180 90.17% 269.68 0.1042 82.72%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 52499 351.59 351.5 359.54 98.94% 159 356 92.75% 326.01 0.126 100.00%


Thanks!

So I took a look at the Q2 2018 RASM versus Q2 2019 in the Mint markets, and compared them to the Q2 2019 systemwide RASM growth (+3.1%). Basically all Mint markets except for JFK-LAX and BOS-LAX were above system-wide RASM:

JFKLAX: +1%
JFK-SFO: +5%
JFK-SAN: +7%
JFK-SEA: +9%
JFK-LAS: +23%
BOS-LAX: +8%
BOS-SFO: +24%
BOS-SAN: +29%
BOS-SEA: +25%
BOS-LAS: -1%
FLL-LAX: +4%
FLL-SFO: +26%

A couple things stick out to me:

-Even with that awfully timed new 11th westbound departure from JFK (around 11PM) for a portion of the quarter, JFK-LAX still posted RASM growth, although it now yields about the same as BOS-SFO, BOS-SAN, FLL-LAX, and FLL-SFO.
-All other JFK markets are strong, with JFK-LAS especially gaining ground.
-There is no wonder that B6 is adding capacity on BOS-SFO/SAN. They are hitting it out of the park.
-B6 is finally gaining ground in SEA.
-FLL-LAX absorbed the third and fourth frequency (partial quarter) extremely well. It's impressive that they could nearly double capacity (including an ill-timed Westbound) and still outperform systemwide RASM growth.
-FLL-SFO is now the highest yielding Mint market, and ripe for a third flight.

tphuang wrote:
Also, I was really impressed with FLL performance this quarter. Couple of competitive routes to look at
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLORD 1182 AA 34034 200.29 197.32 213.62 81.81% 167.5 222 91.52% 180.59 0.1528 130.98%
FLLORD 1182 B6 24318 152.69 151.08 258.21 98.49% 150.5 177 91.26% 137.88 0.1166 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 66294 73.8 72.85 85.22 92.30% 197.5 360 93.26% 67.93 0.0575 49.27%
FLLORD 1182 UA 79159 207.83 207.06 228.65 96.43% 174.1 489 92.96% 192.47 0.1628 139.60%
FLLMDW 1167 WN 99186 183.14 183.97 174.44 91.23% 157.8 685 91.75% 168.8 0.1446 122.42%

This may not look that impressive, but it was easily their best performance on this route and the closest they've been to AA/UA/WN. And all this while AA, UA and NK have cut capacity here.

To Give an idea of how well they did here. In Q2 of last year,
B6 yield was $103, UA was $154 and AA was $150.
Q4 of last year,
B6 yield was $118, UA was $184 and AA was $177.
And Q1 of this year,
B6 yield was $125, UA was $195 and AA was $189 and WN was $180.
So compared to Q1, they managed to do better while competitors all did worse. Again, this is always going to be a route they struggle at given their lack of presence in ORD, but they have at least turned this around over the past couple of quarters. If they can keep this up, no reason they shouldn't add another flight next winter, especially if AA retreats to MIA out of ORD.

another one
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLATL 581 B6 47217 126.5 126.5 0 100.00% 150.2 361 87.08% 110.16 0.1896 100.00%
FLLATL 581 DL 440640 154.3 154.24 356.29 99.97% 197.9 2423 91.92% 141.77 0.244 128.70%
FLLATL 581 NK 125921 46.94 46.9 65.24 99.78% 173.3 802 90.62% 42.5 0.0731 38.58%
FLLATL 581 WN 112790 140.11 140.05 141.3 95.28% 151.1 843 88.56% 124.03 0.2135 112.59%
Again, another route where they have minimal presence on the other end. This was the highest yield I've seen them on this route. There is no reason for them to switch to E90 here. Even with all the connections they are probably selling here, this is at least breaking even. Keep in mind that last quarter, they were at $94 here while WN was at $122 and DL was at $153. So quite a large improvement.

another one
FLLSAN 2269 B6 19711 231.05 230.09 431.32 99.52% 150.9 143 91.36% 210.22 0.0926
Again while $210 doesn't seem like a lot, they were at $168 in Q2 of 2018 and $157 in Q3. It was up to 208 by Q4 and 191 in Q1 after they cut it to 4 flights a week. This was pretty good for 5x weekly. I see that they are going to almost daily for next May/June, which is an indication this is still performing. considering the awful red-eye arrival time into FLL, this is pretty good number.

another one where they looked to have been struggling a little with NK/WN competition and how strong they are at LAS
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24691 238.63 237.48 373.24 99.16% 150.9 178 91.90% 218.24 0.1004 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 30235 108.12 107.72 117.11 95.64% 182.3 182 91.13% 98.16 0.0452 44.98%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 25062 237.37 234.61 252.9 84.90% 153.9 171 95.26% 223.49 0.1028 102.40%
This was again the highest yield I've seen on this route. They also almost matched WN in yield which is impressive when you consider B6 have the red eye westbound flight.

Another one where they face strong NK/WN competition on both end. Really struggled until move to E90 here
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLMSY 674 B6 15796 164.59 164.59 0 100.00% 100.6 181 86.79% 142.85 0.2119 100.00%
FLLMSY 674 NK 54596 48.35 47.91 68.02 97.81% 176.7 363 85.12% 40.78 0.0605 28.55%
FLLMSY 674 WN 64817 155.81 154.24 181.19 94.18% 150 508 85.07% 131.21 0.1947 91.85%
Easily the highest yield they had here even accounting for the higher costs of E90. I saw a move to 2x here in November but no-follow up after that. I think they should try 2x here during peak seasons to MSY. They definitely make money at this yield level.


Incredibly interesting to see how FLL is evolving. In particular I'm impressed with LAS/SAN, given that they are redeyes.....that utilization flying is certainly helping pad the bottom line. It's also nice to see ATL and ORD perform better, and to see MSY yields pick up substantially.
 
phllax
Posts: 514
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:02 pm

How BUR-BOS looking with the re-timing of BOS to daylight Eastbound? BUR-JFK must be good since they're adding the NEO mid-December.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:34 pm

As per request
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44744 237.54 237.46 259.05 99.65% 150.1 326 91.44% 217.15 0.0881
JFKONT 2429 B6 25424 222.85 222.85 000.00 100.00% 150 182 93.13% 207.54 0.0854
JFKLGB 2465 B6 46075 226.24 224.43 299.43 97.59% 150 335 91.69% 205.78 0.0835
BOSBUR 2601 B6 19229 200.6 200.18 224.68 98.30% 154.7 152 81.75% 163.65 0.0629
BOSLGB 2602 B6 24686 235.81 235.03 280.16 98.27% 150.1 176 93.47% 219.67 0.0844
JFKPSP 2378 B6 12821 212.2 211.43 351.59 99.46% 181.3 91 77.70% 164.29 0.0691

JFK-BUR looks pretty good after a tough Q1 and same with ONT surprisingly. LGB is down YoY. PSP has been brutal. Maybe it will be better after UA dropped EWR. We will see. BOS-BUR in Q2 still looks not good. Maybe this will need more time. BOS-LGB looked a little better after going down to 1x daily.

Now for the tough markets, mostly DL fortress hubs.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSATL 946 B6 81844 140.88 140.89 117.07 99.93% 122.8 830 80.32% 113.17 0.1196 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 381925 183.38 181.21 327.28 98.51% 191.7 2166 92.00% 166.71 0.1762 147.32%
BOSATL 946 NK 18759 51.5 50.88 119.46 99.10% 157.9 141 84.28% 42.88 0.0453 37.89%
BOSATL 946 WN 26557 132.34 130.27 150.34 89.68% 146.1 219 83.02% 108.15 0.1143 95.57%
So the big change here is 3 out of 5 flights are now on E90. Still not great yield, but maybe it will get easier with WN gone. Now this is up from Q2 of last year and Q1 of this year, but the warmer weather and smaller plane should've yielded better result.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 64001 146.96 146.96 0 100.00% 151.5 527 80.18% 117.83 0.1048 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 161167 224.58 221.42 375.34 97.94% 174.7 1020 90.46% 200.3 0.1782 169.99%
BOSMSP 1124 SY 17522 103.61 103.61 0 100.00% 182.1 125 76.96% 79.74 0.0709 67.67%
Again, better performance than BOS-ATL, but still pretty brutal market. The positive is that it's an improvement over both Q2 of last year and Q1 of this year.

BOSORD 867 AA 198292 191.2 188.25 278.17 96.72% 165.9 1313 91.02% 171.34 0.1976 112.44%
BOSORD 867 B6 66396 176.82 176.66 216.78 99.62% 100.9 763 86.26% 152.39 0.1758 100.00%
BOSORD 867 NK 18891 47.15 47.13 55.34 99.70% 182.1 114 91.01% 42.89 0.0495 28.15%
BOSORD 867 UA 213959 206.52 204.74 346.61 98.75% 164.9 1427 90.94% 186.2 0.2148 122.19%
This was actually okay when considering their move to 5x daily. Yield is up over Q1 + Q2/Q4 of last year. This is also the closest they've been to UA in yield in all the recent quarters.

JFKORD 740 9E 44609 197.28 196.68 402.03 99.71% 76 654 89.77% 176.57 0.2386 127.38%
JFKORD 740 AA 39337 150.95 149.2 168.2 90.80% 164.4 268 89.27% 133.19 0.18 96.09%
JFKORD 740 B6 38552 161.31 161.08 220.36 99.61% 126.2 355 86.05% 138.62 0.1873 100.00%
JFKORD 740 DL 1215 203.08 198.77 311.08 96.17% 111.3 17 64.22% 127.65 0.1725 92.09%
JFKORD 740 OO 11068 197.82 197.72 219.35 99.51% 70 182 86.88% 171.77 0.2321 123.92%
LGAORD 733 AA 305724 179.67 178.51 256.32 98.50% 161.5 2152 87.99% 157.06 0.2143 N/A
LGAORD 733 DL 168156 181.03 180.46 426.07 99.77% 110.5 1794 84.81% 153.05 0.2088 N/A
LGAORD 733 NK 64266 47.27 47.24 86.97 99.91% 213 344 87.70% 41.43 0.0565 N/A
LGAORD 733 OO 45157 202.06 201.37 390.58 99.63% 72.4 730 85.42% 172.01 0.2347 N/A
LGAORD 733 UA 287020 182.19 182.1 317.76 99.93% 136.7 2371 88.53% 161.21 0.2199 N/A
LGAORD 733 YX 7973 225.64 218.22 269.01 85.40% 75.6 114 92.48% 201.82 0.2753 N/A
I've included LGA here as a comparison, since a lot of DL's JFK stuff is connection. And also consider that the JFK flights were on half A320 and half E90 when you do the comparison with BOS-ORD. From that perspective, pretty good numbers. If compare to DL mainline on LGA-ORD, I see a little worse yield but with higher capacity aircraft. IMO, there is no reason for them to not run all A320s here for most of the year if they are going to limit to 2 flights. Given the improvement in FLL-ORD, is it really too much to ask for to get a second gate and run a schedule of 8x BOS, 3x JFK, 2X FLL, 1x SJU?

JFKATL 760 B6 43900 163.61 162.91 238.3 99.07% 150.2 358 81.64% 133 0.175 100.00%
JFKATL 760 DL 218498 206.9 204.28 405.26 98.69% 174.2 1441 87.06% 177.85 0.234 133.72%
LGAATL 762 AA 35406 169.75 170.08 164.75 93.77% 105.6 415 80.76% 137.36 0.1803 N/A
LGAATL 762 DL 427904 225.89 222.39 413.14 98.16% 176.9 2835 85.33% 189.76 0.249 N/A
LGAATL 762 WN 108448 141.79 141.18 198.39 98.94% 144.2 854 88.09% 124.36 0.1632 N/A
LGAATL 762 YX 29266 194.9 190.33 313.06 96.28% 76 500 77.02% 146.59 0.1924 N/A
Pretty good numbers out of JFK-ATL. Better yield on A320 than WN mainline and almost as good as AA's E90 operation. Solidly profitable route at this yield level. Adding a flight or upgauging to A321 should both be considered here.

MCOATL 404 B6 22870 86.91 86.91 0 100.00% 150.7 180 84.33% 73.29 0.1814 100.00%
MCOATL 404 DL 555085 170.72 170.56 429.71 99.94% 199.1 2999 92.97% 158.57 0.3925 216.37%
MCOATL 404 NK 52647 40.11 40.1 43.81 99.68% 170.3 356 86.82% 34.81 0.0862 47.50%
MCOATL 404 WN 115131 127.61 127.1 189.84 99.20% 147.8 891 87.44% 111.14 0.2751 151.64%
Brutal here. Not sure how long they want to sustain this.

FLLSLC 2084 B6 24163 203.54 202.5 314.05 99.07% 150.8 182 88.04% 178.29 0.0856 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 29251 267.11 233.54 363.41 74.15% 175 181 92.36% 215.69 0.1035 120.98%
Actually not bad here. I'm sure they lose money here, but not bad when considering the westbound red-eye. This is also the closest in yield to DL since they launched the route.
 
User avatar
AVENSAB727
Posts: 1354
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:57 pm

With IAH starting up in 23 days, is it possilbe that IAH could see the A321NEO?
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:33 am

From OAG this week
B6 AUA-BOS APR 2>3[3]
B6 BOS-CHS APR 1.1>1.4[2]
B6 BOS-FLL MAR 5>6[6]
B6 BOS-SDQ FEB 1.1>1.4[1.1] MAR 1.0>1.5[1.0] APR 1.1>1.5[1.0]
B6 BOS-TPA FEB 4>5[5] MAR 3>5[5] APR 3>5[5]
B6 FLL-JFK MAR 8>9[8] APR 8>9[8]
B6 JFK-PUJ FEB 1.8>1.2[1.8] MAR 2>1.3[2] APR 2>1.4[2]
B6 JFK-RSW MAR 3>4[3] APR 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-TPA MAR 2>3[4] APR 2>3[4]

So the TPA stuff is interesting. It was originally loaded with so much less capacity than last year, that I frankly had no idea what was going on. With today's update, it looks like they managed to find extra A321 capacity to fill out hte schedule. So now in Feb to April, BOS-TPA is seeing a nice capacity bump with 2 A321s vs all A320s previously. Should really strengthen their cost here against NK. In a lot of these BOS florida markets, as B6 moves to more A321s and incorporate basic economy pricing, I wonder if they will be able to push out NK from them.

BOS-FLL also got the 6th A320 back. Unfortunately, it's not seeing any extra capacity. Still all A320s until May when it becomes 2 A321s and 3 A320s.

BOS-RSW is now showing 5x A321 + 1x A320 for April. Again, fewer flight replaced by upgauging to A321s.

JFK-FLL going up to 9x daily becomes 8 A321s and 1 A320. That's quite an increase in capacity. They need somewhere to deploy those A321s in non-summer/Christmas months, not too many places safer than JFK-FLL.

On BOS-AUA, I'm now seeing 2 A321s + A320. I believe it was only 1 A321 last year at this time, so another nice bump in capacity.

Also JFK-RSW is now showing 2 A321s, 1 A320 + E90 after the increase. Another nice bounce in capacity in another market they traditionally do well in.

Maybe Airbus confirmed JetBlue that they are doing any further delays on A321NEOs.

I wonder if JFK-MSY will see its schedule bumped back up. That was the other schedule extension I found to be really strange.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:24 am

B6 AUA-BOS APR 2>3[3]


should be B6 AUA-BOS APR 2>3.1 [3]. There are FOUR dailies on Saturdays (3x A320 + A321).
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:38 pm

Alright, some Boston numbers. Keep in mind Q1 normally out of Boston is kind of strange, so I'm comparing the Q2 numbers to also Q2 and Q4 from last year. On a large view, BOS numbers as a whole were showing healthier yield than a year ago, probably due to domestic capacity actually reducing in Q2 as a result of WN/AA cuts.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 24321 262.16 261.12 319.5 98.22% 152 180 88.90% 232.12 0.1367 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 21222 255.51 236.91 313.72 75.79% 157 153 88.36% 209.34 0.1233 90.19%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 23692 241.45 235.91 274.05 85.46% 158.1 165 90.81% 214.22 0.1262 92.29%
The gap between Jetblue here and DL/WN decreased vs Q1 and Q2/Q4 of last year. Compared to last year, all the yields are higher. Would be interesting to see what happens here as B6 adds that second flight and WN goes seasonal. Not a great show of their pricing power here.

BOSBWI 369 B6 80334 156.26 156.26 0 100.00% 100 997 80.58% 125.9 0.3412 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 198895 148.62 148.6 263 99.98% 147.1 1610 84.01% 124.83 0.3383 99.15%
Compared to a year ago the yield for both B6 and WN are up quite a bit. Some quarters, B6 does a little better and other quarters WN does better. Seems like a route that B6 will need to convert to A220 to compete on cost against WN.

BOSBUF 395 B6 60194 130.53 130.28 203.53 99.66% 100 815 73.86% 96.23 0.2436 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 21213 120.94 118.57 224.84 97.77% 71.4 454 65.40% 77.55 0.1963 80.59%
Teh yield gap between B6 and DL shrunk slightly vs Q1 and Q4 of last year. Yield is higher than Q1 and Q4 of last year, but still quite underwater. They've recently moved this to 4x daily even in summer time next year, probably due to the continued overcapacity in this market. Not really sure how DL keeps this route going.

BOSCHS 818 B6 47045 202.54 201.69 246.83 98.13% 121.7 453 85.35% 172.15 0.2105 100.00%
BOSCHS 818 DL 12295 190.22 182.81 231.68 84.83% 71.8 190 90.09% 164.7 0.2013 95.67%
Kind of hard to compare this to anything since DL was not running this daily last Q2 or this past Q1. They also added a lot of capacity here vs a year ago to 3x daily with more E90s. Overall, very good yield for B6 here considering almost half the flights are on A320/A321. Yield is down a little bit vs last Q2, but they added quite a bit of capacity here. Yield is up vs Q4 of last year and Q1. A220 is probably ideal here given that they are using a mix of E90/A320s.

BOSCLT 728 AA 232738 201.47 200.31 258.77 98.03% 165.3 1532 91.90% 184.08 0.2529 122.46%
BOSCLT 728 B6 40393 177.89 177.89 0 100.00% 100 478 84.50% 150.32 0.2065 100.00%
The gap with AA here shrunk vs Q1 and more in line with Q4 of last year when they first increased this to 3x daily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as they are going to 5x in Q4. The yields are not bad for a legacy fortress hub. Another route that could do well with A220.

BOSCLE 563 B6 48896 162.33 162.33 0 100.00% 100.2 568 85.93% 139.49 0.2478 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 30514 162.27 160.16 195.59 94.06% 75.9 466 86.22% 138.1 0.2453 99.00%
First full quarter with DL as main competition. As expected, they are now the yield leaders instead of UA, which is a good thing. Vs a year ago, the yield is about flat. I would've expected a larger gap between B6 and DL on this route given performances on similar routes. We will how this plays out since B6 is going to 5x daily next year.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 53677 200.4 200.27 232.65 99.62% 178.4 343 87.70% 175.64 0.1001 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 139658 276.05 274.76 315.32 96.82% 177.5 851 92.44% 254 0.1448 144.61%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 63584 209.13 208.05 226.29 94.11% 163.1 439 88.79% 184.74 0.1053 105.18%
The performance here is actually pretty good given that 1 of the 2 flights now are on A321. The yield gap vs WN has not changed despite the upgauging and greater capacity, which is a great sign. The gap vs UA increased a little bit over last Q2 and Q4, which is not terrible given the upgauging. Vs last Q2, the yield is down slightly but should be more than made up by the lower cost of upgauging. I'd like to see them add frequency here with A220 once they get them.

BOSDFW 1562 AA 181839 272.15 267.32 343.87 93.70% 171.7 1138 93.07% 248.8 0.1593 140.57%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 44870 193.25 193.25 0 100.00% 151.2 324 91.59% 176.99 0.1133 100.00%
Kind of what you would expect on this route. The yields are actually pretty good this quarter vs a year ago. The gap with AA is the same as Q2/4 of last year and shrunk vs Q1 this year. This is the highest yield I've seen on this route from B6. At this level, they are at least breaking even which is a great sign. Another route that could use more frequency from A220. 2x daily is pretty uncompetitive here.

BOSDTW 632 B6 43427 183.44 183.44 0 100.00% 100.3 531 81.55% 149.6 0.2367 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 179526 198.94 197.52 271.42 98.07% 169.2 1176 90.20% 178.16 0.2819 119.09%
I would say a pretty good quarter here when you consider that they increased to 4x daily on some days by the end of the quarter. The gap with DL has stayed the same or shrunk a little bit vs a year ago. DL has done a little more upgauging here, which probably explains the change.

BOSRSW 1249 B6 123152 232.81 232.65 262.14 99.43% 161.7 874 87.11% 202.67 0.1623 100.00%
Another solid quarter for a very strong market. Yield is up 10% over last Q2, but flat with Q1. This is going to see a lot of upgauging next year.

BOSJAX 1010 B6 46482 166.53 166.14 194.98 98.63% 105.7 534 82.35% 136.82 0.1355 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 26475 176.43 171.73 245.92 93.67% 73.2 470 76.95% 132.15 0.1308 96.59%
A rather painful route for B6 at the current yield level, which is probably why they are upgauging to A320s later this year. The yield gap here is about the same as Q1 and Q4 of last year. Not really sure how DL keeps this route around at this yield level on a mix of 70 and 76 seaters.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 22701 186.86 186.86 0 100.00% 144.7 183 85.75% 160.23 0.0996 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 25868 211.64 206.79 235.22 82.94% 157.6 178 92.23% 190.73 0.1185 119.04%
Well, this is one route they outlasted WN. The yield here is actually much better than a year ago. We will see how the move to IAH goes. A route that seriously needs A220. The current mix of A320 and E90 either has too much capacity or too much cost. At 1x daily, they are simply not competitive here against UA's presence.

BOSMCO 1121 B6 169389 207.26 206.71 253.61 98.83% 182.4 1086 85.53% 176.8 0.1577 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 75100 194.6 192.57 218.03 92.00% 159.4 534 88.20% 169.85 0.1515 96.07%
This is a rather consistent market. Vs a year ago, they had a few more flights which gave them more capacity here. The yield gap with DL is pretty consistent here over the past few quarters. Both are apparently adding flight next year.

BOSFLL 1237 B6 127245 221.11 219.92 288.38 98.26% 144.2 980 90.05% 198.03 0.1601 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 34475 199.71 197.76 212.71 86.99% 163.2 241 87.65% 173.34 0.1401 87.53%
A rather confusing route for me in that they are not doing any upgauging here until next year. Compared to a year ago, the yield gap with DL is about ehs ame and the overall yield has gone up quite a bit. Vs Q1 and Q4 of last year, the yield gap shrunk a little bit. Looking forward, DL is going 2x here year round and B6 is adding A321 here. I'd like to see them going to mostly A321s here.

BOSBNA 942 B6 55929 172.71 172.52 379.5 99.91% 156.1 415 86.36% 148.99 0.1582 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 DL 35144 198.5 195.83 239.71 93.92% 71.2 591 83.52% 163.55 0.1736 109.77%
BOSBNA 942 WN 72754 159.09 157.26 190.09 94.45% 155.6 534 87.54% 137.66 0.1461 92.39%
interesting route, given that they are going with mostly 162 seat A320s here, this was a very good quarter. DL actually ran mostly 70 seaters this quarter and the yield gap between B6/DL still managed to shrink vs Q1 and Q2/4 of last year. Yield gap vs WN increased vs recent quarters. In terms of year, it's relatively flat vs a year ago depsite more capacity from everyone. Very healthy yield level.

BOSMSY 1368 B6 40063 229.79 229.61 318.7 99.80% 140.3 327 87.32% 200.5 0.1466 100.00%
Another very healthy market for B6. The yield is roughly flat vs a year ago.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, some Boston numbers. Keep in mind Q1 normally out of Boston is kind of strange, so I'm comparing the Q2 numbers to also Q2 and Q4 from last year. On a large view, BOS numbers as a whole were showing healthier yield than a year ago, probably due to domestic capacity actually reducing in Q2 as a result of WN/AA cuts.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 24321 262.16 261.12 319.5 98.22% 152 180 88.90% 232.12 0.1367 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 21222 255.51 236.91 313.72 75.79% 157 153 88.36% 209.34 0.1233 90.19%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 23692 241.45 235.91 274.05 85.46% 158.1 165 90.81% 214.22 0.1262 92.29%
The gap between Jetblue here and DL/WN decreased vs Q1 and Q2/Q4 of last year. Compared to last year, all the yields are higher. Would be interesting to see what happens here as B6 adds that second flight and WN goes seasonal. Not a great show of their pricing power here.

BOSBWI 369 B6 80334 156.26 156.26 0 100.00% 100 997 80.58% 125.9 0.3412 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 198895 148.62 148.6 263 99.98% 147.1 1610 84.01% 124.83 0.3383 99.15%
Compared to a year ago the yield for both B6 and WN are up quite a bit. Some quarters, B6 does a little better and other quarters WN does better. Seems like a route that B6 will need to convert to A220 to compete on cost against WN.

BOSBUF 395 B6 60194 130.53 130.28 203.53 99.66% 100 815 73.86% 96.23 0.2436 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 21213 120.94 118.57 224.84 97.77% 71.4 454 65.40% 77.55 0.1963 80.59%
Teh yield gap between B6 and DL shrunk slightly vs Q1 and Q4 of last year. Yield is higher than Q1 and Q4 of last year, but still quite underwater. They've recently moved this to 4x daily even in summer time next year, probably due to the continued overcapacity in this market. Not really sure how DL keeps this route going.

BOSCHS 818 B6 47045 202.54 201.69 246.83 98.13% 121.7 453 85.35% 172.15 0.2105 100.00%
BOSCHS 818 DL 12295 190.22 182.81 231.68 84.83% 71.8 190 90.09% 164.7 0.2013 95.67%
Kind of hard to compare this to anything since DL was not running this daily last Q2 or this past Q1. They also added a lot of capacity here vs a year ago to 3x daily with more E90s. Overall, very good yield for B6 here considering almost half the flights are on A320/A321. Yield is down a little bit vs last Q2, but they added quite a bit of capacity here. Yield is up vs Q4 of last year and Q1. A220 is probably ideal here given that they are using a mix of E90/A320s.

BOSCLT 728 AA 232738 201.47 200.31 258.77 98.03% 165.3 1532 91.90% 184.08 0.2529 122.46%
BOSCLT 728 B6 40393 177.89 177.89 0 100.00% 100 478 84.50% 150.32 0.2065 100.00%
The gap with AA here shrunk vs Q1 and more in line with Q4 of last year when they first increased this to 3x daily. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as they are going to 5x in Q4. The yields are not bad for a legacy fortress hub. Another route that could do well with A220.

BOSCLE 563 B6 48896 162.33 162.33 0 100.00% 100.2 568 85.93% 139.49 0.2478 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 30514 162.27 160.16 195.59 94.06% 75.9 466 86.22% 138.1 0.2453 99.00%
First full quarter with DL as main competition. As expected, they are now the yield leaders instead of UA, which is a good thing. Vs a year ago, the yield is about flat. I would've expected a larger gap between B6 and DL on this route given performances on similar routes. We will how this plays out since B6 is going to 5x daily next year.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 53677 200.4 200.27 232.65 99.62% 178.4 343 87.70% 175.64 0.1001 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 139658 276.05 274.76 315.32 96.82% 177.5 851 92.44% 254 0.1448 144.61%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 63584 209.13 208.05 226.29 94.11% 163.1 439 88.79% 184.74 0.1053 105.18%
The performance here is actually pretty good given that 1 of the 2 flights now are on A321. The yield gap vs WN has not changed despite the upgauging and greater capacity, which is a great sign. The gap vs UA increased a little bit over last Q2 and Q4, which is not terrible given the upgauging. Vs last Q2, the yield is down slightly but should be more than made up by the lower cost of upgauging. I'd like to see them add frequency here with A220 once they get them.

BOSDFW 1562 AA 181839 272.15 267.32 343.87 93.70% 171.7 1138 93.07% 248.8 0.1593 140.57%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 44870 193.25 193.25 0 100.00% 151.2 324 91.59% 176.99 0.1133 100.00%
Kind of what you would expect on this route. The yields are actually pretty good this quarter vs a year ago. The gap with AA is the same as Q2/4 of last year and shrunk vs Q1 this year. This is the highest yield I've seen on this route from B6. At this level, they are at least breaking even which is a great sign. Another route that could use more frequency from A220. 2x daily is pretty uncompetitive here.

BOSDTW 632 B6 43427 183.44 183.44 0 100.00% 100.3 531 81.55% 149.6 0.2367 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 179526 198.94 197.52 271.42 98.07% 169.2 1176 90.20% 178.16 0.2819 119.09%
I would say a pretty good quarter here when you consider that they increased to 4x daily on some days by the end of the quarter. The gap with DL has stayed the same or shrunk a little bit vs a year ago. DL has done a little more upgauging here, which probably explains the change.

BOSRSW 1249 B6 123152 232.81 232.65 262.14 99.43% 161.7 874 87.11% 202.67 0.1623 100.00%
Another solid quarter for a very strong market. Yield is up 10% over last Q2, but flat with Q1. This is going to see a lot of upgauging next year.

BOSJAX 1010 B6 46482 166.53 166.14 194.98 98.63% 105.7 534 82.35% 136.82 0.1355 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 26475 176.43 171.73 245.92 93.67% 73.2 470 76.95% 132.15 0.1308 96.59%
A rather painful route for B6 at the current yield level, which is probably why they are upgauging to A320s later this year. The yield gap here is about the same as Q1 and Q4 of last year. Not really sure how DL keeps this route around at this yield level on a mix of 70 and 76 seaters.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 22701 186.86 186.86 0 100.00% 144.7 183 85.75% 160.23 0.0996 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 25868 211.64 206.79 235.22 82.94% 157.6 178 92.23% 190.73 0.1185 119.04%
Well, this is one route they outlasted WN. The yield here is actually much better than a year ago. We will see how the move to IAH goes. A route that seriously needs A220. The current mix of A320 and E90 either has too much capacity or too much cost. At 1x daily, they are simply not competitive here against UA's presence.

BOSMCO 1121 B6 169389 207.26 206.71 253.61 98.83% 182.4 1086 85.53% 176.8 0.1577 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 75100 194.6 192.57 218.03 92.00% 159.4 534 88.20% 169.85 0.1515 96.07%
This is a rather consistent market. Vs a year ago, they had a few more flights which gave them more capacity here. The yield gap with DL is pretty consistent here over the past few quarters. Both are apparently adding flight next year.

BOSFLL 1237 B6 127245 221.11 219.92 288.38 98.26% 144.2 980 90.05% 198.03 0.1601 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 34475 199.71 197.76 212.71 86.99% 163.2 241 87.65% 173.34 0.1401 87.53%
A rather confusing route for me in that they are not doing any upgauging here until next year. Compared to a year ago, the yield gap with DL is about ehs ame and the overall yield has gone up quite a bit. Vs Q1 and Q4 of last year, the yield gap shrunk a little bit. Looking forward, DL is going 2x here year round and B6 is adding A321 here. I'd like to see them going to mostly A321s here.

BOSBNA 942 B6 55929 172.71 172.52 379.5 99.91% 156.1 415 86.36% 148.99 0.1582 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 DL 35144 198.5 195.83 239.71 93.92% 71.2 591 83.52% 163.55 0.1736 109.77%
BOSBNA 942 WN 72754 159.09 157.26 190.09 94.45% 155.6 534 87.54% 137.66 0.1461 92.39%
interesting route, given that they are going with mostly 162 seat A320s here, this was a very good quarter. DL actually ran mostly 70 seaters this quarter and the yield gap between B6/DL still managed to shrink vs Q1 and Q2/4 of last year. Yield gap vs WN increased vs recent quarters. In terms of year, it's relatively flat vs a year ago depsite more capacity from everyone. Very healthy yield level.

BOSMSY 1368 B6 40063 229.79 229.61 318.7 99.80% 140.3 327 87.32% 200.5 0.1466 100.00%
Another very healthy market for B6. The yield is roughly flat vs a year ago.


Thanks!

So for any markets where you have posted Q2 2019 data so far (and where I have found the Q2 2018 data on the thread from last year), I did a comparison to find RASM contributors vs detractors. To note, year-over-year RASM increased by 3.1%, so anything above is a contributor and anything below is a detractor. I can post the full results / observations once you're done, but here are a few tidbits so far:

FLLORD (+34%), BOSMSP (+32%), and FLLLAS (+29%) are the largest RASM contributors when measured by market. This is not totally surprising since they are coming off a very low base, although FLLORD and FLLLAS both show relatively healthy yields. BOSMSP continues to suffer, but not by as much.

JFKPSP (-23%), BOSCLT (-10%), and BOSDEN (-5%) are the largest detractors. I believe JFKPSP used the A321 this past quarter (as seasonal service was wound down), and the launch of BOSPSP probably hurt demand here a bit. BOSCLT saw a third frequency, and BOSDEN saw one of its frequencies move to an A321, so this isn't all too surprising.

JFKLAX (+1%) and FLLLAX (+4%) are pretty much at the network-wide median. JFK-ATL was flat (+.2%), but an overall detractor.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:57 pm

Maybe JFK-PSP would be better with an A220?
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:41 pm

More from Boston.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSEWR 200 B6 54454 160.78 160.78 0 100.00% 100.3 813 66.77% 107.36 0.5368 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 214509 235.95 235.95 0 100.00% 151.9 1690 83.55% 197.14 0.9857 183.63%
First of all, I don't for one second think UA actually gets 83% higher yield than B6 here. I would imagine most of the cabin is filled with low yielding connection itineraries. Having said that, I think it's really time for them to up this to 10x daily now that WN is gone from EWR and DL is on this route with 5x daily next year and UA is still at 11x daily. Even if they have to reduce or move flights for other EWR routes if FAA doesn't approve new flights for certain hours. I'm surprised this still hasn't happened yet. As for performance, it's not great. Their yield went down a little bit vs a year ago and fare gap vs UA increased.

BOSPHL 280 AA 232529 173.68 173.44 287.6 99.79% 139.7 1919 86.74% 150.44 0.5373 124.63%
BOSPHL 280 B6 91377 152.72 152.72 0 100.00% 100.1 1155 79.04% 120.71 0.4311 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 38125 132.18 131.44 384.55 99.71% 72.6 711 73.90% 97.14 0.3469 80.48%
Their yield here is down slightly YoY and yield gap vs AA also widened. I'm assuming that's because they added a flight here vs a year ago and have to share Boston point of sale with DL. Vs last quarter and Q4, the gap betwen B6 and DL is relatively the same even though DL added some capacity here.

BOSPIT 496 B6 77519 149.33 149.32 209 99.98% 100.5 1000 77.12% 115.15 0.2322 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 39258 134.53 131.99 180.94 94.79% 73.1 741 72.52% 95.72 0.193 83.12%
Their yield here is up a little bit YoY. The overall capacity on this rotue hasn't really changed, but having fewer competitors may have helped a little. The gap between B6 and DL shrunk 1 or 2% vs Q1/Q4 even as DL has taken over AA's capacity here.

BOSRDU 612 B6 88273 172.88 172.88 196.51 99.99% 100.2 1036 85.02% 146.98 0.2402 100.00%
BOSRDU 612 DL 78062 180.02 178.92 352.27 99.37% 92.3 1000 84.59% 151.35 0.2473 102.97%
Their yield here is down YoY. B6 added a flight here so they now have the most flight and capacity on this route. The yield gap between B6 and DL is about flat vs Q2 of last year and Q1 of this year. Overall, not bad performance with that extra flight. DL seems to have more mainline here in Q2 than Q1/Q4.

BOSRIC 474 B6 58376 158.6 158.6 0 100.00% 100.8 698 82.98% 131.61 0.2776 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 DL 25423 163.5 163.16 296.57 99.74% 68.8 477 77.48% 126.42 0.2667 96.06%
Their yield here is up slightly YoY. This route is relatively stable. The yield gap with DL shrunk vs Q2 of last year, but increased vs Q4 of last year. Q1 of this year seemed to have been a blip. Overall, pretty consistent performance on this route.

BOSTPA 1185 B6 96500 198.62 198.46 224.56 99.41% 140.5 765 89.79% 178.2 0.1504 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 67888 177.12 174.54 235.15 95.75% 157.9 483 89.04% 155.41 0.1312 87.21%
Their yield here is up slightly YoY. Both B6/DL added more flights here vs a year ago and B6 actually ran some more E90s here. Vs last Q2 and last quarter, the yield gap with DL increased but it decreased vs Q4 of last year. I think this will change now that they are adding a321s here, since that will represent quite a bit more capacity.

Overall, I think there are some bright spots and bummers out of BOS. It does look like DL is doing a little better vs last Q2/4 as some of these routes have matured a little bit for them. It's possible their number have looked better due to more connections in summer time onto their new TATL routes. DL's Q1 numbers are typically horrendous. On the more mature routes, it appears that B6 has done better on a lot of them. We are going to see quite a bit of upgauging to Florida next year, so I expect their yield to go down a little bit but cost should go down a lot.

I do continue to have frustration that they have no attempted markets like IND/CMH/CVG where DL has been milking and that B6 should do well on when looking at comparables like RDU/BNA/TPA where DL also has strong point of sale. Or their lack of movements on markets like SDF/MEM which are underserved. It seems to me that once 2021 comes around, they will be focused on TATL entrance and maybe new markets like SNA opened up by A220. So if they want to add middle of the country market, they need to do it in 2020. If they would like to keep expanding BOS, they need to go into markets that are underserved rather than continuing to add capacity into markets that have no demand like PSP/HDN/HAV just because they already have a station there.

And if they do intend to turn all NYC/DCA/PHL routes into shuttle type offerings, they really need to up the frequency in EWR and PHL with more prime hour departures to compete on schedule with UA and AA. They do a lot of post 9 PM departures to business markets that are often the most delayed flights and do little to make their schedule more attractive to business customers.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 307
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:02 pm

8 nov CHS-FLL goes 2x a day 650a & 11am on e190
 
dtremit
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSBUF 395 B6 60194 130.53 130.28 203.53 99.66% 100 815 73.86% 96.23 0.2436 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 21213 120.94 118.57 224.84 97.77% 71.4 454 65.40% 77.55 0.1963 80.59%
Teh yield gap between B6 and DL shrunk slightly vs Q1 and Q4 of last year. Yield is higher than Q1 and Q4 of last year, but still quite underwater. They've recently moved this to 4x daily even in summer time next year, probably due to the continued overcapacity in this market. Not really sure how DL keeps this route going.

BOSDTW 632 B6 43427 183.44 183.44 0 100.00% 100.3 531 81.55% 149.6 0.2367 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 179526 198.94 197.52 271.42 98.07% 169.2 1176 90.20% 178.16 0.2819 119.09%
I would say a pretty good quarter here when you consider that they increased to 4x daily on some days by the end of the quarter. The gap with DL has stayed the same or shrunk a little bit vs a year ago. DL has done a little more upgauging here, which probably explains the change.


I think both of these routes carry a lot of connecting traffic -- which may explain why DL sticks with BUF despite yields. Given DL's international buildup in BOS, BUF is a great source of feeder traffic.
Anecdotally, on my last BOS-DEN I was seated next to two pax connecting from BUF. And B6's DTW flights I have been on always have had people dashing for connections on EK / EY in particular.

tphuang wrote:
Alright, some Boston numbers. Keep in mind Q1 normally out of Boston is kind of strange, so I'm comparing the Q2 numbers to also Q2 and Q4 from last year. On a large view, BOS numbers as a whole were showing healthier yield than a year ago, probably due to domestic capacity actually reducing in Q2 as a result of WN/AA cuts.
BOSDEN 1754 B6 53677 200.4 200.27 232.65 99.62% 178.4 343 87.70% 175.64 0.1001 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 139658 276.05 274.76 315.32 96.82% 177.5 851 92.44% 254 0.1448 144.61%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 63584 209.13 208.05 226.29 94.11% 163.1 439 88.79% 184.74 0.1053 105.18%
The performance here is actually pretty good given that 1 of the 2 flights now are on A321. The yield gap vs WN has not changed despite the upgauging and greater capacity, which is a great sign. The gap vs UA increased a little bit over last Q2 and Q4, which is not terrible given the upgauging. Vs last Q2, the yield is down slightly but should be more than made up by the lower cost of upgauging. I'd like to see them add frequency here with A220 once they get them.


Again, anecdotal, but I flew this recently and what seemed like half the plane was Mosaic. Another business-oriented frequency would probably be very welcome.

tphuang wrote:
I do continue to have frustration that they have no attempted markets like IND/CMH/CVG where DL has been milking and that B6 should do well on when looking at comparables like RDU/BNA/TPA where DL also has strong point of sale. Or their lack of movements on markets like SDF/MEM which are underserved. It seems to me that once 2021 comes around, they will be focused on TATL entrance and maybe new markets like SNA opened up by A220. So if they want to add middle of the country market, they need to do it in 2020. If they would like to keep expanding BOS, they need to go into markets that are underserved rather than continuing to add capacity into markets that have no demand like PSP/HDN/HAV just because they already have a station there.

And if they do intend to turn all NYC/DCA/PHL routes into shuttle type offerings, they really need to up the frequency in EWR and PHL with more prime hour departures to compete on schedule with UA and AA. They do a lot of post 9 PM departures to business markets that are often the most delayed flights and do little to make their schedule more attractive to business customers.


It seems like while DL is quick to jump on B6's routes, B6 is very slow to do the opposite. I do get the sense they are very constrained by available aircraft, particularly E190s. Delaying the A220 order seems like one of their biggest recent mistakes.

They also could use a little more marketing heft behind their "shuttle" routes. One thing AA has done for years on those sorts of flights is assign them consistent gates close to security -- a few years back when AA was competing with (I think?) WN on BOS-PHL, they made a big deal about assigning all BOS flights to C18. B6, on the other hand, seems to throw those flights anywhere and everywhere. Last night I walked past a flight to SYR at C26 on my way to board a DCA flight way down at C30. It seems small, but having shuttle flights land right by the exit makes a perception difference.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:31 pm

Blueknows wrote:
8 nov CHS-FLL goes 2x a day 650a & 11am on e190


Unfortunately seems to just be a November change. Same with MSY-FLL. Not sure why they are not extending it beyond that. May just be a test. We will see. They've kind of stopped expanding FLL this year.

dtremit wrote:

I think both of these routes carry a lot of connecting traffic -- which may explain why DL sticks with BUF despite yields. Given DL's international buildup in BOS, BUF is a great source of feeder traffic.
Anecdotally, on my last BOS-DEN I was seated next to two pax connecting from BUF. And B6's DTW flights I have been on always have had people dashing for connections on EK / EY in particular.

It seems like while DL is quick to jump on B6's routes, B6 is very slow to do the opposite. I do get the sense they are very constrained by available aircraft, particularly E190s. Delaying the A220 order seems like one of their biggest recent mistakes.

They also could use a little more marketing heft behind their "shuttle" routes. One thing AA has done for years on those sorts of flights is assign them consistent gates close to security -- a few years back when AA was competing with (I think?) WN on BOS-PHL, they made a big deal about assigning all BOS flights to C18. B6, on the other hand, seems to throw those flights anywhere and everywhere. Last night I walked past a flight to SYR at C26 on my way to board a DCA flight way down at C30. It seems small, but having shuttle flights land right by the exit makes a perception difference.


Right, DTW is said to be getting a lot of feed from EK. Probably a lot of TATL traffic too once they get that going. As for BUF, the problem is that connection traffic would be even lower yielding. You are seeing DL adding a lot of flights into their partner airlines really quickly out of BOS, which explains some of these 1200 R/T j fares to FCO through AMS. They can certain sustain this when the rest of their network is going well, but I see very few routes out of BOS that's generating good margins for them.

Agreed on the shuttle routes. There are many things they can learn from legacy airlines on how to run them correctly. Their great hard product gets wasted if they can't get the basics right.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:06 am

Check out a summary of the changes below:

BLUECITY CLOSURES

Anchorage (ANC) - effective Sept 15, 2019 (the station will not re-open for its otherwise-scheduled season in Summer 2020)

The aircraft time unlocked from the ANC route closures will allow us to substantially improve our schedules in markets such as LGB-SEA and LGB-PDX. Specifically, we will be able to turn our current RON pattern in PDX into a competitive day-turn for LGB Customers.

La Romana (LRM)– effective Jan 11, 2020
With the recent roadway infrastructure improvements in this region, it has become increasingly easier and more convenient for Customers to reach La Romana from both Santo Domingo (SDQ) and Punta Cana (PUJ). We currently serve La Romana twice weekly from JFK and will be redeploying that capacity to other markets in the Dominican Republic.

ROUTE CLOSURES – EFFECTIVE OCT. 27

New York (JFK) – Charlotte (CLT)
In Charlotte, we will be replacing our two daily JFK flights with an additional two flights to Boston, a key market with a growing JetBlue schedule.

Washington D.C. (DCA) to/from: Charleston (CHS), Jacksonville (JAX)
In Washington D.C., we’ll re-purpose the slots for our existing DCA-CHS/JAX service to expand our BOS-DCA service, and flights to some of our Florida BlueCities, including FLL, PBI and RSW.

EXPANDED SERVICE – EFFECTIVE OCT. 27

Boston (BOS) – Charlotte (CLT)
New York (JFK) – Punta Cana, DR (PUJ)
Washington, D.C. (DCA) to/from: Boston (BOS), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Fort Myers (RSW), West Palm Beach (PBI)
MAKING SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS – EFFECTIVE OCT. 27

We’re also making some seasonal adjustments to better match our flights with demand from our Customers.

Orlando-Bogotá (BOG)
Flights will no longer operate from September-November and February-May. During these non-peak “shoulder” periods, there is simply not enough demand to justify the route. During these times, we’ll use this aircraft to add an additional MCO-BOS flight, strengthening our position in this key market during seasons where demand supports additional flying.

MOVING AIRPORTS IN HOUSTON

We will also be relocating our Houston services from William P. Hobby Airport (HOU) to George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) on October 27 in order to better serve our Customers. Customers continue to favor IAH even at higher fares, demonstrating that this is the preferred gateway for Houston travelers. We are confident that we will not only maintain our Customers, but thanks to our superior offering and competitive fares, we will gain new Customers. This will improve the profitability of our routes, as well as our network relevance in New York and Boston.
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:16 am

Schedule between New York (JFK) and San José (SJO)

On Fridays, Sundays and Tuesdays Beginning November 1, 2019

JFK - SJO Flight #1793

SJO - JFK Flight #1794

1825 – 2250

2359– 0609 (+1)

ANNOUNCING DETAILS OF OUR HOUSTON AIRPORT RELOCATION

Last week, we announced plans to relocate our Houston services from William P. Hobby Airport (HOU) to George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) on October 27 in order to better serve our Customers.

Today, we are sharing details of this move with both Customers and Crewmembers. The final day of flying at Hobby Airport will be October 26, 2019 and the first day of flying at Bush Intercontinental will be October 27, 2019. We will operate from Bush Intercontinental’s Terminal A.

Schedule between New York (JFK) and Houston (IAH)

Beginning October 27, 2019

JFK - IAH Flight #581

IAH - JFK Flight #282

1300– 1610

1113 - 1535


Schedule between Boston (BOS) and Houston (IAH)

Beginning October 27, 2019

BOS - IAH Flight #1031

IAH - BOS Flight #932

0700 – 1013

1655 – 2132
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:18 am

WASHINGTON D.C. (DCA)

Beginning October 27, 2019, JetBlue is adding one additional daily roundtrip flight between Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) and:

Boston Logan International Airport (BOS)
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL)
Palm Beach International Airport (PBI)
Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW)
JetBlue will discontinue twice daily service between Washington-National (DCA) and:

Charleston International Airport (CHS)
Jacksonville International Airport (JAX)
The final day of service on these routes will be October 26
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:20 am

October 27, 2019, JetBlue will discontinue twice daily service between Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), and add additional service between Charlotte and Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). The final day of nonstop service between Charlotte and New York-JFK will be October 26
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:24 am

this was all announced a few months ago.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
this was all announced a few months ago.



Yeah I’m confused by his posts.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:21 pm

September monthly report is out. http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... 10-10-2019
Looks like the RASM is basically in the middle of the rather poor revised guidance. Not a great quarter. Well at least the OTP was good for one month. At 82%, that's the best I've seen in a while.

my guess is that this quarter suffered because of the network changes they made last year. They allocated some of the capacities from underperfomring routes like FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT to mostly Carribbean routes. In a lot of cases especially to PR/DR, I think they just had too much capacity. I hope they cut back a little bit next summer. 10 flights to SDQ/STI from NYC area with most of that on A321 is a lot of capacity. PUJ looks to have really suffered and 8 flights to SJU from JFK/EWR was also probably too much capacity for this summer. Even routes like JFK-ACK suffered because they drastically increased capacity out of all NYC airport. At least that's what June numbers looked like. It's the same problem they had in Q1 when they re-allocated too much west coast capacity to secondary transcon markets. That imo seems to be an issue the JetBlue route planners are making. Too much capacity too quickly on high margined routes to replace underperforming routes causing high margined routes to lose steam. As i've said many times, I think they need to be a little bit risk taking and just start new routes that are underserved even if that involves opening new stations. JFK-GYE/GEO/PTP all seem to be in that category.

Routes I wish they'd add sooner rather than later:
BOS-CMH/IND/SDF/MEM/MKE/MCI
JFK-BNA/MSP/DFW/SAL/UIO/GUA
FLL-SDF/MEM/SAL/GUA/SEA/
MCO-CHS/CLE/MEM
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:48 pm

Bluewho wrote:
tphuang wrote:
this was all announced a few months ago.



Yeah I’m confused by his posts.


This is new information to middle management.
 
speedbird2263
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:00 pm

CaptCoolHand wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
tphuang wrote:
this was all announced a few months ago.



Yeah I’m confused by his posts.


This is new information to middle management.


Well played.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:22 pm

tphuang wrote:
September monthly report is out. http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... 10-10-2019
Looks like the RASM is basically in the middle of the rather poor revised guidance. Not a great quarter. Well at least the OTP was good for one month. At 82%, that's the best I've seen in a while.

my guess is that this quarter suffered because of the network changes they made last year. They allocated some of the capacities from underperfomring routes like FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT to mostly Carribbean routes. In a lot of cases especially to PR/DR, I think they just had too much capacity. I hope they cut back a little bit next summer. 10 flights to SDQ/STI from NYC area with most of that on A321 is a lot of capacity. PUJ looks to have really suffered and 8 flights to SJU from JFK/EWR was also probably too much capacity for this summer. Even routes like JFK-ACK suffered because they drastically increased capacity out of all NYC airport. At least that's what June numbers looked like. It's the same problem they had in Q1 when they re-allocated too much west coast capacity to secondary transcon markets. That imo seems to be an issue the JetBlue route planners are making. Too much capacity too quickly on high margined routes to replace underperforming routes causing high margined routes to lose steam. As i've said many times, I think they need to be a little bit risk taking and just start new routes that are underserved even if that involves opening new stations. JFK-GYE/GEO/PTP all seem to be in that category.

Routes I wish they'd add sooner rather than later:
BOS-CMH/IND/SDF/MEM/MKE/MCI
JFK-BNA/MSP/DFW/SAL/UIO/GUA
FLL-SDF/MEM/SAL/GUA/SEA/
MCO-CHS/CLE/MEM




I can tell you not flying to ind/sdf/mem/mke/mci. Possibility in 5-6 years...that’s a big maybe
 
wv399
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:08 pm

OK that makes a lot more sense. Frankly I don't understand why B6 even bothers with ATL-MCO (or LAX/AUS-MCO for that matter), and I could see it eventually disappearing. The yields are awful, B6 has the lowest market share of any non-stop competitor, and the importance to the network is seemingly low.

ATL-MCO is there mainly for connections that aren't available from other cities, and also for partner flights.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:50 am

Blueknows wrote:
tphuang wrote:
September monthly report is out. http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... 10-10-2019
Looks like the RASM is basically in the middle of the rather poor revised guidance. Not a great quarter. Well at least the OTP was good for one month. At 82%, that's the best I've seen in a while.

my guess is that this quarter suffered because of the network changes they made last year. They allocated some of the capacities from underperfomring routes like FLL-DTW/BWI/PIT to mostly Carribbean routes. In a lot of cases especially to PR/DR, I think they just had too much capacity. I hope they cut back a little bit next summer. 10 flights to SDQ/STI from NYC area with most of that on A321 is a lot of capacity. PUJ looks to have really suffered and 8 flights to SJU from JFK/EWR was also probably too much capacity for this summer. Even routes like JFK-ACK suffered because they drastically increased capacity out of all NYC airport. At least that's what June numbers looked like. It's the same problem they had in Q1 when they re-allocated too much west coast capacity to secondary transcon markets. That imo seems to be an issue the JetBlue route planners are making. Too much capacity too quickly on high margined routes to replace underperforming routes causing high margined routes to lose steam. As i've said many times, I think they need to be a little bit risk taking and just start new routes that are underserved even if that involves opening new stations. JFK-GYE/GEO/PTP all seem to be in that category.

Routes I wish they'd add sooner rather than later:
BOS-CMH/IND/SDF/MEM/MKE/MCI
JFK-BNA/MSP/DFW/SAL/UIO/GUA
FLL-SDF/MEM/SAL/GUA/SEA/
MCO-CHS/CLE/MEM




I can tell you not flying to ind/sdf/mem/mke/mci. Possibility in 5-6 years...that’s a big maybe



Where are we going?
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5110
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:54 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Some observations/questions:

-The third BOS-SAN (all-core) will be timed so that the return to BOS competes directly with the second daily that AS is adding. The plane will overnight in SAN and then depart at 6:45am back to BOS. I think this is the first time B6 will RON an aircraft at SAN, and shows real commitment to keeping AS in check.

Thanks 'fan1, for your interest in what's Blue in SAN. And as I've been busy trying to keep up with what all AAG is doing here, I've not kept up with B6 changes; thanks for the details.

I will say "it's about time!" Blue adds a morning departure from SAN to somewhere! I know RON parking at our itty-bitty airport is very limited and very much in demand so it's wonderful to see that the whispers I've heard lately about Blue trying to get a RON on the books here, is becoming reality! Who knows, there may simply be no RON parking available at some point in the not too distant future...

So yeah, for years AS has had the early-morning SAN departure time (the peak time for SAN-based corporate travelers flying transcon) to BOS all to themselves. And B6 seemed to simply ignore it. Finally, there will be competition at that time, plus even more competition on the redeye departure when AS adds their 2nd BOS trip next May. I'm very happy to see both cx making a battle of it in this important market; I can't help but wonder if this expansion of capacity is possibly due to the thinking (expectation?) that DL may very well be thinking of jumping in as well?

If this move by Blue (SAN-BOS in the early a.m.) works well for them, I can only hope that an early a.m. SAN-JFK flight will not be too far behind. (Yet another RON at SDIA?! Could it happen?...) I wouldn't even dare to dream about the same for SAN-FLL.

FYI, the first Blue RON in SAN was May 2005 with their new IAD route which departed here at 6:30am daily and returned to SAN at 8:45pm. The flight became a redeye that October. Then in 2008 the company experimented with morning departures to JFK and SLC; believe it or not, the great summer of '08 saw JetBlue SAN with a record 8 daily departures to 5 destinations! Fall of 2009 saw our last B6 RON (JFK.) So it's been quite a drought for Blue doing a sleepover in San Diego!

bb
 
Blueknows
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:45 am

In the next two years more capacity on routes, and moving e190s to less profitable routes. Due to delay on A220 growth (new cities) is not priority. B6 was supposed to get 1 A220 in September and 4 in 2020. Right now expected 1 a220 expected for 2020.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:00 am

rudderless.

watching a profitable route like JFK CLT end is sickening
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:47 pm

So before I start going over the JFK yields, I first wanted to do a comparison of how the 3 main players AA/B6/DL are doing in the market.

My comparison go all the way back to 2016 Q2. It's to show what I've been witnessing of AA losing relevance in New York mostly to Delta and JetBlue capturing only a small slice of that.

First of all, this compares the capacity change and departure change and number of seats per flight over the 3 years. C stands for capacity and P stands for seats per flight

9Q2 C 6Q2 C Ratio 9Q2 Dep 6Q2 Dep Ratio 9Q2 P 6Q2 P Ratio
AA 787928 982964 80.16% 6269 7614 82.34% 125.7 129.1 97.36%
B6 1835434 1821849 100.75% 11698 12273 95.31% 156.9 148.4 105.70%
DL 2138740 1897006 112.74% 13969 13162 106.13% 153.1 144.1 106.23%

As you can see, DL has added almost 13% capacity in the routes I've been following. part of that is launching JFK-CLT after 2016 Q2, but they have had higher capacity growth even on the other routes. AA has reduced capacity by 20% in those routes and B6 has been or less flat. AA has actually downgauged over the 3 years which typically means higher cost and higher yield. B6 and DL both upgauged by close to 6. DL has done a lot of upgauging recently. One would normally expect AA to be getting higher yield since lower capacity and smaller aircraft with higher cost normally results in higher yield. But as you will see. This is simply not the case. B6's reduced departures should surprise no one, as we've seen them upgauge certain leisure markets and move those slots over to Latin American markets.

I did relative yields of AA vs B6 below across the routes I'm following. Each of the column below represents how much JetBlue's yield vs AA's yield in these markets changed vs previous quarter. So for example, vs 6Q2 column for JFK-SEA shows 65.37%. The reason for that is AA's yield was 74.76% of B6 yield in this past quarter but was 114.36% 3 years ago. That shows tremendous slippage by AA over the 3 years.
CityPairCarrier vs 6Q2 vs 7Q2 vs 7Q4 vs 8Q2 vs 8Q4 vs 9Q1
JFKAUS AA 102.46% 93.60% 88.20% 93.28% 99.26% 100.12%
JFKBOS AA 79.68% 66.98% 62.12% 88.95% 86.54% 87.70%
JFKCLT AA 109.19% 105.80% 110.51% 105.02% 97.17% 95.06%
JFKORD AA 89.97% 86.89% 84.71% 84.49% 85.95% 91.28%
JFKLAS AA 80.85% 80.17% 80.41% 85.91% 91.95% 96.11%
JFKLAX AA 100.09% 102.66% 93.65% 106.37% 99.80% 101.23%
JFKMCO AA 113.49% 120.97% 113.01% 110.28% 115.75% 117.08%
JFKPHX AA 92.84% 84.37% 82.91% 90.63% 88.46% 86.49%
JFKRDU AA 141.37% 119.70% 115.56% 103.16% 101.07% 112.73%
JFKSAN AA 65.58% 62.44% 78.31% 86.20% 90.93% 88.33%
JFKSFO AA 100.69% 98.16% 89.51% 94.23% 94.33% 90.47%
JFKSEA AA 65.37% 68.47% 67.35% 79.41% 90.79% 105.70%

On average among the 12 routes, AA's relative yield vs B6 dropped 5% despite the reduced capacity and downgauging. There were only 4 markets showing improvements. JFK-RDU is due to AA downgauging from 76 seaters to a mix of 44 and 50 seaters. JFK-MCO is due to AA ending the route a few days into April. It seemed like AA was doing mostly okay up until 2017 Q2 and then after that it started a huge slide and becoming less relevant with each quarter. AA's relative yield vs B6 dropped over 9% in the past 2 years, 7% in the past year, 5% in the past 2 quarters and 2.3% since Q1. With this kind of rapid slide, once can see why AA has given up on so many routes. It's hard for me to fathom B6 not being able to chase AA off GEO and SJO very quickly.

And the following is DL vs B6
CityPairCarrier vs 6Q2 vs 7Q2 vs 7Q4 vs 8Q2 vs 8Q4 vs 9Q1
JFKAUS DL 122.93% 109.31% 108.84% 111.11% 106.63% 93.50%
JFKBOS DL 95.00% 103.87% 95.85% 110.12% 107.36% 88.09%
JFKCLT DL #DIV/0! 102.34% 108.83% 104.23% 106.52% 113.81%
JFKORD DL 112.79% 100.30% 105.15% 97.72% 102.65% 93.15%
JFKFLL DL 116.96% 106.80% 95.45% 105.05% 92.39% 95.25%
JFKLAS DL 98.04% 93.17% 93.37% 92.80% 93.91% 97.00%
JFKLAX DL 115.71% 107.90% 100.75% 102.00% 104.10% 104.09%
JFKMSY DL 98.93% 93.17% 99.09% 95.11% 100.38% 106.86%
JFKMCO DL 107.53% 106.73% 94.03% 101.50% 97.94% 102.45%
JFKPHX DL 116.81% 106.35% 94.70% 105.16% 96.47% 95.23%
JFKRDU DL 125.60% 116.42% 106.74% 105.12% 104.43% 101.94%
JFKSLC DL 92.35% 91.35% 90.16% 101.94% 93.40% 94.40%
JFKSAN DL 85.22% 78.79% 102.25% 101.24% 101.93% 101.94%
JFKSFO DL 111.31% 109.15% 102.29% 101.87% 100.98% 96.80%
JFKSEA DL 93.39% 84.92% 83.44% 101.26% 102.00% 96.88%
JFKTPA DL 106.67% 101.29% 92.39% 99.53% 92.85% 101.78%
JFKPBI DL 128.11% 102.79% #VALUE! 102.12% #DIV/0! 98.83%
Now if I'm JetBlue, this is a rather alarming trend. If we ignore PBI, since DL runs a reduced schedule outside winter season until very recently, the rest of market has generally trended in the wrong direction. for example compared to 2016 Q2, DL relative yields are up 6.6% aside from PBI/CLT. Compared to 2017 Q2, DL is up less than 1% aside from PBI. Compared to 2018Q2, DL is up 2.2% vs B6. Compared to 2 quarters ago, DL is about the same. Generally, there is a lot of noise in the data from quarter to quarter, but there has definitely been a huge shift in certain markets. A lot of B6 performance have only been rescued by the mint entrance into LAS/SAN/SEA. On some markets like JFK-AUS/LAX, DL has increased yield gap vs B6 even with more flights and upgauging. On JFK-FLL/MCO/TPA, DL has cut into B6 yield advantage or overtaken B6 even though they've upgauged more aggressively and added more capacity in those markets recently. On some markets like RDU/ORD/CLT, I think the shifts may simple be a product of DL getting a lot more international connections going, so their actual yields are a lot lower.

If we were to just compare AA to DL here, I think we'd see an even starker shift in profitability over the past 2 years and especially the last 4 quarters.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:14 pm

Now that United is going full-blown Frequent Spender Program, I think JetBlue has the upper hand. Starting in 2020 both United and Jetblue require $5000 spend to reach status. I expect lower-tier UA elites to flock to B6 in droves, especially those based in BOS.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:31 pm

So AA keeps pushing back those MAX cuts. Not sure how much longer they can do this without giving up the slots. I wonder if B6 goes to them now and tries to buy some of those slots, what will AA say. I would think it's less terrible for AA if those slots go to B6 than DL, since a more evenly matched DL/B6 slot portfolio at JFK would help any DL competitors. Also, AS has cut JFK-SJC. I wonder if B6 can try to get a couple of JFK slots from them, especially if AS is not looking to compete on schedule to LAX/SFO.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:48 pm

More data from transcon markets compared against each other. I took out competitors here, since a good chunk of this just have B6 service.

Rouote Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44744 237.54 237.46 259.05 99.65% 150.1 326 91.44% 217.15 0.0881
JFKONT 2429 B6 25424 222.85 222.85 000.00 100.00% 150 182 93.13% 207.54 0.0854
JFKLGB 2465 B6 46075 226.24 224.43 299.43 97.59% 150 335 91.69% 205.78 0.0835
BOSBUR 2601 B6 19229 200.6 200.18 224.68 98.30% 154.7 152 81.75% 163.65 0.0629
BOSLGB 2602 B6 24686 235.81 235.03 280.16 98.27% 150.1 176 93.47% 219.67 0.0844
JFKPSP 2378 B6 12821 212.2 211.43 351.59 99.46% 181.3 91 77.70% 164.29 0.0691
Most of these have similar numbers to JFK-BUR/LGB from a year ago. Looks like the additional capacity to BUR/ONT has not helped LGB. JFK-BUR is apparently going to 2x A321s next year. That seems to be a lot of capacity in Q1. Would be interesting to see how well they do with that. I'm in favor of cutting back JFK/BOS-LGB even further. With ONT doing reasonable in Q2, I don't know if there is any need to continue flying to PSP. Clearly, those flights are not bringing in the revenues.

JFKPHX 2153 B6 24432 240.02 239.44 348.41 99.47% 150 185 88.01% 210.74 0.0979
BOSPHX 2300 B6 27053 239.62 238.76 337.06 99.12% 155 183 95.35% 227.66 0.099
Both routes did pretty well this year with higher yield than last year. I continue to see enough premium demand here for mint service.

JFKSMF 2521 B6 30376 234.8 234.1 271.2 98.10% 183.2 182 91.08% 213.22 0.0846
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24554 219.61 219.24 297.83 99.53% 150.1 179 91.42% 200.43 0.078
JFKOAK 2576 B6 16815 233.08 232.13 284.21 98.18% 150 128 87.58% 203.3 0.0789
BOSSMF 2636 B6 10827 250.53 249.31 270.55 94.24% 157.7 74 92.79% 231.34 0.0878
BOSSJC 2689 B6 21580 263.03 262.81 277.47 98.52% 150.6 162 88.42% 232.39 0.0864
JFK-SMF continues to be the star here when you factor in they are using A321 during summer time. BOS-SMF had fewer flight vs a year ago running on mostly the reconfigured A320s and generated a little higher yield, so good numbers. JFK-SJC did about the same despite having the additional AS competition. That should lighten up a little next year with AS off the route.

JFKRNO 2411 B6 16662 192.69 192.15 225.45 98.39% 150 131 84.79% 162.93 0.0676
JFKPDX 2454 B6 18714 218.8 218.59 342.81 99.83% 150 145 86.04% 188.08 0.0766
Two of the worst transcons out of JFK. RNO actually did pretty well in the past Q4 and Q1. So that's surprising. PDX is always going to be a struggle.
BOSPDX 2537 B6 10017 263.5 263.46 264.23 95.07% 158 66 96.06% 253.08 0.0998
They started BOS-PDX later this year and got higher yield. Maybe they are discovering differen peak season for this route since it's going much later also.

JFKSLC 1990 B6 47550 201.04 200.85 241.75 99.55% 150.9 369 85.37% 171.46 0.0862
BOSSLC 2105 B6 21579 201.7 198.92 266.96 95.92% 157.3 164 83.64% 166.39 0.079
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23429 180.88 180.61 247.71 99.60% 150 180 86.77% 156.72 0.0812
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24163 203.54 202.5 314.05 99.07% 150.8 182 88.04% 178.29 0.0856
Most of these did marginally better. I'm sure B6 will keep these routes around as long as they have their support center in SLC. JFK did okay considering this is off peak season and the addition of that second flight.

MCOLAX 2218 B6 22314 195.25 194.54 278.74 99.15% 152.5 163 89.76% 174.61 0.0787
BUFLAX 2218 B6 19922 220.78 217.31 302.36 95.92% 150 142 93.53% 203.25 0.0916
Continued struggles on these 2 marginal routes. Re-timing doesn't seem to have helped MCO that much although the departure of AS/F9 lifted the fares in general.

I keep thinking where B6 could pull aircraft in the event they get extra slots at JFK or if slot goes away or if additional flights are permitted at EWR. Seems to me that lower yield transcon routes like JFK/BOS-PSP/LGB, MCO-LAX, JFK-RNO would all be good candidates
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
More data from transcon markets compared against each other. I took out competitors here, since a good chunk of this just have B6 service.

Rouote Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44744 237.54 237.46 259.05 99.65% 150.1 326 91.44% 217.15 0.0881
JFKONT 2429 B6 25424 222.85 222.85 000.00 100.00% 150 182 93.13% 207.54 0.0854
JFKLGB 2465 B6 46075 226.24 224.43 299.43 97.59% 150 335 91.69% 205.78 0.0835
BOSBUR 2601 B6 19229 200.6 200.18 224.68 98.30% 154.7 152 81.75% 163.65 0.0629
BOSLGB 2602 B6 24686 235.81 235.03 280.16 98.27% 150.1 176 93.47% 219.67 0.0844
JFKPSP 2378 B6 12821 212.2 211.43 351.59 99.46% 181.3 91 77.70% 164.29 0.0691
Most of these have similar numbers to JFK-BUR/LGB from a year ago. Looks like the additional capacity to BUR/ONT has not helped LGB. JFK-BUR is apparently going to 2x A321s next year. That seems to be a lot of capacity in Q1. Would be interesting to see how well they do with that. I'm in favor of cutting back JFK/BOS-LGB even further. With ONT doing reasonable in Q2, I don't know if there is any need to continue flying to PSP. Clearly, those flights are not bringing in the revenues.

JFKPHX 2153 B6 24432 240.02 239.44 348.41 99.47% 150 185 88.01% 210.74 0.0979
BOSPHX 2300 B6 27053 239.62 238.76 337.06 99.12% 155 183 95.35% 227.66 0.099
Both routes did pretty well this year with higher yield than last year. I continue to see enough premium demand here for mint service.

JFKSMF 2521 B6 30376 234.8 234.1 271.2 98.10% 183.2 182 91.08% 213.22 0.0846
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24554 219.61 219.24 297.83 99.53% 150.1 179 91.42% 200.43 0.078
JFKOAK 2576 B6 16815 233.08 232.13 284.21 98.18% 150 128 87.58% 203.3 0.0789
BOSSMF 2636 B6 10827 250.53 249.31 270.55 94.24% 157.7 74 92.79% 231.34 0.0878
BOSSJC 2689 B6 21580 263.03 262.81 277.47 98.52% 150.6 162 88.42% 232.39 0.0864
JFK-SMF continues to be the star here when you factor in they are using A321 during summer time. BOS-SMF had fewer flight vs a year ago running on mostly the reconfigured A320s and generated a little higher yield, so good numbers. JFK-SJC did about the same despite having the additional AS competition. That should lighten up a little next year with AS off the route.

JFKRNO 2411 B6 16662 192.69 192.15 225.45 98.39% 150 131 84.79% 162.93 0.0676
JFKPDX 2454 B6 18714 218.8 218.59 342.81 99.83% 150 145 86.04% 188.08 0.0766
Two of the worst transcons out of JFK. RNO actually did pretty well in the past Q4 and Q1. So that's surprising. PDX is always going to be a struggle.
BOSPDX 2537 B6 10017 263.5 263.46 264.23 95.07% 158 66 96.06% 253.08 0.0998
They started BOS-PDX later this year and got higher yield. Maybe they are discovering differen peak season for this route since it's going much later also.

JFKSLC 1990 B6 47550 201.04 200.85 241.75 99.55% 150.9 369 85.37% 171.46 0.0862
BOSSLC 2105 B6 21579 201.7 198.92 266.96 95.92% 157.3 164 83.64% 166.39 0.079
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23429 180.88 180.61 247.71 99.60% 150 180 86.77% 156.72 0.0812
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24163 203.54 202.5 314.05 99.07% 150.8 182 88.04% 178.29 0.0856
Most of these did marginally better. I'm sure B6 will keep these routes around as long as they have their support center in SLC. JFK did okay considering this is off peak season and the addition of that second flight.

MCOLAX 2218 B6 22314 195.25 194.54 278.74 99.15% 152.5 163 89.76% 174.61 0.0787
BUFLAX 2218 B6 19922 220.78 217.31 302.36 95.92% 150 142 93.53% 203.25 0.0916
Continued struggles on these 2 marginal routes. Re-timing doesn't seem to have helped MCO that much although the departure of AS/F9 lifted the fares in general.

I keep thinking where B6 could pull aircraft in the event they get extra slots at JFK or if slot goes away or if additional flights are permitted at EWR. Seems to me that lower yield transcon routes like JFK/BOS-PSP/LGB, MCO-LAX, JFK-RNO would all be good candidates


Thanks!

LA: Regarding BOS-LA Basin, it's pretty impressive that BOS-LAX/LGB both saw yield increases (+6-8%) despite the added capacity out of BUR. They must see some utility serving 3 LA markets (and PSP seasonally), which is something that AA/DL cannot say. That said, the BUR numbers are atrocious, although I suspect they'll be slightly better once the retimed eastbound flight is reflected for a full quarter. JFK-LA Basin is a bit of another story. JFK-BUR/LAX/LGB/PSP all under performed system RASM growth, although on an absolute basis BUR/LAX look healthy. ONT also looks decent. If B6 ultimately decides to eliminate its unprofitable/break-even LGB focus city, I could see them potentially keeping a daily flight each to JFK/BOS.

It looks like BUF/MCO-LAX are both +12% yield vs prior year. That's pretty impressive IMO. The absolute fare level of BUFLAX is actually not bad, especially when you consider that it's pure O&D. MCOLAX still struggles, but it's not horrendous.

PHX looks great over last year (+5% to JFK, +15% to BOS), and the absolute fare level looks fine too. I think B6 should add a second frequency on BOSPHX and give AA some real competition (and perhaps thwart DL from entering). Mint could potentially work too, although I don't see it being an overwhelming success.

B6 must be really happy with those SMF numbers, and to see SJC holding its own despite the increased competition (particularly from JFK). JFKPDX is a perennial disappointment, and B6 is simply not competitive against AS/DL. SLC doesn't look half bad, with all markets posting RASM increases (including JFK, where capacity was doubled).

IMO if and when B6 needs to adjust transcon flying to make room for Europe (particularly PM TATL departures from JFK), I can see PDX/LGB/OAK/RNO all being shifted to morning/afternoon departures (if not outright dropped). That is, unless they can get some AA slots (if and when the FAA/PANYNJ calls their bluff), and/or move some capacity to EWR (particularly to Florida/the Islands).
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:55 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
More data from transcon markets compared against each other. I took out competitors here, since a good chunk of this just have B6 service.

Rouote Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44744 237.54 237.46 259.05 99.65% 150.1 326 91.44% 217.15 0.0881
JFKONT 2429 B6 25424 222.85 222.85 000.00 100.00% 150 182 93.13% 207.54 0.0854
JFKLGB 2465 B6 46075 226.24 224.43 299.43 97.59% 150 335 91.69% 205.78 0.0835
BOSBUR 2601 B6 19229 200.6 200.18 224.68 98.30% 154.7 152 81.75% 163.65 0.0629
BOSLGB 2602 B6 24686 235.81 235.03 280.16 98.27% 150.1 176 93.47% 219.67 0.0844
JFKPSP 2378 B6 12821 212.2 211.43 351.59 99.46% 181.3 91 77.70% 164.29 0.0691
Most of these have similar numbers to JFK-BUR/LGB from a year ago. Looks like the additional capacity to BUR/ONT has not helped LGB. JFK-BUR is apparently going to 2x A321s next year. That seems to be a lot of capacity in Q1. Would be interesting to see how well they do with that. I'm in favor of cutting back JFK/BOS-LGB even further. With ONT doing reasonable in Q2, I don't know if there is any need to continue flying to PSP. Clearly, those flights are not bringing in the revenues.

JFKPHX 2153 B6 24432 240.02 239.44 348.41 99.47% 150 185 88.01% 210.74 0.0979
BOSPHX 2300 B6 27053 239.62 238.76 337.06 99.12% 155 183 95.35% 227.66 0.099
Both routes did pretty well this year with higher yield than last year. I continue to see enough premium demand here for mint service.

JFKSMF 2521 B6 30376 234.8 234.1 271.2 98.10% 183.2 182 91.08% 213.22 0.0846
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24554 219.61 219.24 297.83 99.53% 150.1 179 91.42% 200.43 0.078
JFKOAK 2576 B6 16815 233.08 232.13 284.21 98.18% 150 128 87.58% 203.3 0.0789
BOSSMF 2636 B6 10827 250.53 249.31 270.55 94.24% 157.7 74 92.79% 231.34 0.0878
BOSSJC 2689 B6 21580 263.03 262.81 277.47 98.52% 150.6 162 88.42% 232.39 0.0864
JFK-SMF continues to be the star here when you factor in they are using A321 during summer time. BOS-SMF had fewer flight vs a year ago running on mostly the reconfigured A320s and generated a little higher yield, so good numbers. JFK-SJC did about the same despite having the additional AS competition. That should lighten up a little next year with AS off the route.

JFKRNO 2411 B6 16662 192.69 192.15 225.45 98.39% 150 131 84.79% 162.93 0.0676
JFKPDX 2454 B6 18714 218.8 218.59 342.81 99.83% 150 145 86.04% 188.08 0.0766
Two of the worst transcons out of JFK. RNO actually did pretty well in the past Q4 and Q1. So that's surprising. PDX is always going to be a struggle.
BOSPDX 2537 B6 10017 263.5 263.46 264.23 95.07% 158 66 96.06% 253.08 0.0998
They started BOS-PDX later this year and got higher yield. Maybe they are discovering differen peak season for this route since it's going much later also.

JFKSLC 1990 B6 47550 201.04 200.85 241.75 99.55% 150.9 369 85.37% 171.46 0.0862
BOSSLC 2105 B6 21579 201.7 198.92 266.96 95.92% 157.3 164 83.64% 166.39 0.079
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23429 180.88 180.61 247.71 99.60% 150 180 86.77% 156.72 0.0812
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24163 203.54 202.5 314.05 99.07% 150.8 182 88.04% 178.29 0.0856
Most of these did marginally better. I'm sure B6 will keep these routes around as long as they have their support center in SLC. JFK did okay considering this is off peak season and the addition of that second flight.

MCOLAX 2218 B6 22314 195.25 194.54 278.74 99.15% 152.5 163 89.76% 174.61 0.0787
BUFLAX 2218 B6 19922 220.78 217.31 302.36 95.92% 150 142 93.53% 203.25 0.0916
Continued struggles on these 2 marginal routes. Re-timing doesn't seem to have helped MCO that much although the departure of AS/F9 lifted the fares in general.

I keep thinking where B6 could pull aircraft in the event they get extra slots at JFK or if slot goes away or if additional flights are permitted at EWR. Seems to me that lower yield transcon routes like JFK/BOS-PSP/LGB, MCO-LAX, JFK-RNO would all be good candidates


Thanks!

LA: Regarding BOS-LA Basin, it's pretty impressive that BOS-LAX/LGB both saw yield increases (+6-8%) despite the added capacity out of BUR. They must see some utility serving 3 LA markets (and PSP seasonally), which is something that AA/DL cannot say. That said, the BUR numbers are atrocious, although I suspect they'll be slightly better once the retimed eastbound flight is reflected for a full quarter. JFK-LA Basin is a bit of another story. JFK-BUR/LAX/LGB/PSP all under performed system RASM growth, although on an absolute basis BUR/LAX look healthy. ONT also looks decent. If B6 ultimately decides to eliminate its unprofitable/break-even LGB focus city, I could see them potentially keeping a daily flight each to JFK/BOS.

It looks like BUF/MCO-LAX are both +12% yield vs prior year. That's pretty impressive IMO. The absolute fare level of BUFLAX is actually not bad, especially when you consider that it's pure O&D. MCOLAX still struggles, but it's not horrendous.

PHX looks great over last year (+5% to JFK, +15% to BOS), and the absolute fare level looks fine too. I think B6 should add a second frequency on BOSPHX and give AA some real competition (and perhaps thwart DL from entering). Mint could potentially work too, although I don't see it being an overwhelming success.

B6 must be really happy with those SMF numbers, and to see SJC holding its own despite the increased competition (particularly from JFK). JFKPDX is a perennial disappointment, and B6 is simply not competitive against AS/DL. SLC doesn't look half bad, with all markets posting RASM increases (including JFK, where capacity was doubled).

IMO if and when B6 needs to adjust transcon flying to make room for Europe (particularly PM TATL departures from JFK), I can see PDX/LGB/OAK/RNO all being shifted to morning/afternoon departures (if not outright dropped). That is, unless they can get some AA slots (if and when the FAA/PANYNJ calls their bluff), and/or move some capacity to EWR (particularly to Florida/the Islands).



BUF-LAX isn’t purely O&D, you probably don’t realize it so I’ll let you know. Since they adjusted the flight time so it arrives in LAX midday instead of late at night, there is now the possibility of passengers connecting onto a Hawaiian Airlines flight, similar to what they do in JFK/BOS with the early morning arrivals from locations like SYR/BTV/ROC/BUF. I haven’t done it yet but I know people that have and it ended up being around $800RT.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:17 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
More data from transcon markets compared against each other. I took out competitors here, since a good chunk of this just have B6 service.

Rouote Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44744 237.54 237.46 259.05 99.65% 150.1 326 91.44% 217.15 0.0881
JFKONT 2429 B6 25424 222.85 222.85 000.00 100.00% 150 182 93.13% 207.54 0.0854
JFKLGB 2465 B6 46075 226.24 224.43 299.43 97.59% 150 335 91.69% 205.78 0.0835
BOSBUR 2601 B6 19229 200.6 200.18 224.68 98.30% 154.7 152 81.75% 163.65 0.0629
BOSLGB 2602 B6 24686 235.81 235.03 280.16 98.27% 150.1 176 93.47% 219.67 0.0844
JFKPSP 2378 B6 12821 212.2 211.43 351.59 99.46% 181.3 91 77.70% 164.29 0.0691
Most of these have similar numbers to JFK-BUR/LGB from a year ago. Looks like the additional capacity to BUR/ONT has not helped LGB. JFK-BUR is apparently going to 2x A321s next year. That seems to be a lot of capacity in Q1. Would be interesting to see how well they do with that. I'm in favor of cutting back JFK/BOS-LGB even further. With ONT doing reasonable in Q2, I don't know if there is any need to continue flying to PSP. Clearly, those flights are not bringing in the revenues.

JFKPHX 2153 B6 24432 240.02 239.44 348.41 99.47% 150 185 88.01% 210.74 0.0979
BOSPHX 2300 B6 27053 239.62 238.76 337.06 99.12% 155 183 95.35% 227.66 0.099
Both routes did pretty well this year with higher yield than last year. I continue to see enough premium demand here for mint service.

JFKSMF 2521 B6 30376 234.8 234.1 271.2 98.10% 183.2 182 91.08% 213.22 0.0846
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24554 219.61 219.24 297.83 99.53% 150.1 179 91.42% 200.43 0.078
JFKOAK 2576 B6 16815 233.08 232.13 284.21 98.18% 150 128 87.58% 203.3 0.0789
BOSSMF 2636 B6 10827 250.53 249.31 270.55 94.24% 157.7 74 92.79% 231.34 0.0878
BOSSJC 2689 B6 21580 263.03 262.81 277.47 98.52% 150.6 162 88.42% 232.39 0.0864
JFK-SMF continues to be the star here when you factor in they are using A321 during summer time. BOS-SMF had fewer flight vs a year ago running on mostly the reconfigured A320s and generated a little higher yield, so good numbers. JFK-SJC did about the same despite having the additional AS competition. That should lighten up a little next year with AS off the route.

JFKRNO 2411 B6 16662 192.69 192.15 225.45 98.39% 150 131 84.79% 162.93 0.0676
JFKPDX 2454 B6 18714 218.8 218.59 342.81 99.83% 150 145 86.04% 188.08 0.0766
Two of the worst transcons out of JFK. RNO actually did pretty well in the past Q4 and Q1. So that's surprising. PDX is always going to be a struggle.
BOSPDX 2537 B6 10017 263.5 263.46 264.23 95.07% 158 66 96.06% 253.08 0.0998
They started BOS-PDX later this year and got higher yield. Maybe they are discovering differen peak season for this route since it's going much later also.

JFKSLC 1990 B6 47550 201.04 200.85 241.75 99.55% 150.9 369 85.37% 171.46 0.0862
BOSSLC 2105 B6 21579 201.7 198.92 266.96 95.92% 157.3 164 83.64% 166.39 0.079
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23429 180.88 180.61 247.71 99.60% 150 180 86.77% 156.72 0.0812
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24163 203.54 202.5 314.05 99.07% 150.8 182 88.04% 178.29 0.0856
Most of these did marginally better. I'm sure B6 will keep these routes around as long as they have their support center in SLC. JFK did okay considering this is off peak season and the addition of that second flight.

MCOLAX 2218 B6 22314 195.25 194.54 278.74 99.15% 152.5 163 89.76% 174.61 0.0787
BUFLAX 2218 B6 19922 220.78 217.31 302.36 95.92% 150 142 93.53% 203.25 0.0916
Continued struggles on these 2 marginal routes. Re-timing doesn't seem to have helped MCO that much although the departure of AS/F9 lifted the fares in general.

I keep thinking where B6 could pull aircraft in the event they get extra slots at JFK or if slot goes away or if additional flights are permitted at EWR. Seems to me that lower yield transcon routes like JFK/BOS-PSP/LGB, MCO-LAX, JFK-RNO would all be good candidates


Thanks!

LA: Regarding BOS-LA Basin, it's pretty impressive that BOS-LAX/LGB both saw yield increases (+6-8%) despite the added capacity out of BUR. They must see some utility serving 3 LA markets (and PSP seasonally), which is something that AA/DL cannot say. That said, the BUR numbers are atrocious, although I suspect they'll be slightly better once the retimed eastbound flight is reflected for a full quarter. JFK-LA Basin is a bit of another story. JFK-BUR/LAX/LGB/PSP all under performed system RASM growth, although on an absolute basis BUR/LAX look healthy. ONT also looks decent. If B6 ultimately decides to eliminate its unprofitable/break-even LGB focus city, I could see them potentially keeping a daily flight each to JFK/BOS.

It looks like BUF/MCO-LAX are both +12% yield vs prior year. That's pretty impressive IMO. The absolute fare level of BUFLAX is actually not bad, especially when you consider that it's pure O&D. MCOLAX still struggles, but it's not horrendous.

PHX looks great over last year (+5% to JFK, +15% to BOS), and the absolute fare level looks fine too. I think B6 should add a second frequency on BOSPHX and give AA some real competition (and perhaps thwart DL from entering). Mint could potentially work too, although I don't see it being an overwhelming success.

B6 must be really happy with those SMF numbers, and to see SJC holding its own despite the increased competition (particularly from JFK). JFKPDX is a perennial disappointment, and B6 is simply not competitive against AS/DL. SLC doesn't look half bad, with all markets posting RASM increases (including JFK, where capacity was doubled).

IMO if and when B6 needs to adjust transcon flying to make room for Europe (particularly PM TATL departures from JFK), I can see PDX/LGB/OAK/RNO all being shifted to morning/afternoon departures (if not outright dropped). That is, unless they can get some AA slots (if and when the FAA/PANYNJ calls their bluff), and/or move some capacity to EWR (particularly to Florida/the Islands).



BUF-LAX isn’t purely O&D, you probably don’t realize it so I’ll let you know. Since they adjusted the flight time so it arrives in LAX midday instead of late at night, there is now the possibility of passengers connecting onto a Hawaiian Airlines flight, similar to what they do in JFK/BOS with the early morning arrivals from locations like SYR/BTV/ROC/BUF. I haven’t done it yet but I know people that have and it ended up being around $800RT.


Thanks, no I did not know that and it's a good point. And now that you mention it, in addition to HA there are probably some connections to Asia/Australia too (particularly to those destinations that cannot be reached via JFK/BUF, such as SIN or SYD). Although I don't know if we're talking about 20-30% of overall traffic here, or like 2-3%.
 
phllax
Posts: 514
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
JFK-BUR is apparently going to 2x A321s next year. That seems to be a lot of capacity in Q1. Would be interesting to see how well they do with that.

Re-timing doesn't seem to have helped MCO that much although the departure of AS/F9 lifted the fares in general.


A couple of tidbits about LAX you may not know about: There's a lot of construction going on now until 2023-2024. There's construction at T1, Delta is building a new head house between T2 & T3, and AA is doing a similar project between T4 & T5, where B6 operates out of. They've also started construction on the people mover. Traffic getting into the airport has been a mess all day except the early am hours and can take upwards of 35-50 minutes to get around the horseshoe, especially since they moved Uber/Lyft pickups upstairs. However, at the end of the month all taxi/Uber/Lyft pickups will be off site. Either way, between the construction and traffic people are starting to avoid LAX. Hence that's why BUR has seen massive growth from all carriers this year in the addition of ATL, DFW, IAH, MDW, BNA, BOS and NK joining the fray to LAS. People in Downtown LA, the San Fernando, San Gabriel and Santa Clarita Valley's just don't want to go to LAX anymore if they can help it.

So yes, BUR 321 in mid-December, with the daylight flight cut over the holiday period, but when it returns on 1/6 or so it will be 2x 321. Frankly, I'd prefer to see a 3rd morning BUR-JFK operate on the days BOS doesn't.

As for the MCO-LAX flight, the issue is the departure time from LAX. The departure time from MCO is great - noonish, but the flight to MCO leaves here at 3:40 getting into MCO at 11:40pm, which is late, especially for the Disney set, as ideally you wouldn't get to your hotel until 1 - 1:30 in the morning. Retiming it to a morning departure would help, but I bet CUTE gate access in T5 and aircraft utilization are the issues preventing that, being that only BUF and MCO are the only 320 destinations from LAX.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:58 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks!

LA: Regarding BOS-LA Basin, it's pretty impressive that BOS-LAX/LGB both saw yield increases (+6-8%) despite the added capacity out of BUR. They must see some utility serving 3 LA markets (and PSP seasonally), which is something that AA/DL cannot say. That said, the BUR numbers are atrocious, although I suspect they'll be slightly better once the retimed eastbound flight is reflected for a full quarter. JFK-LA Basin is a bit of another story. JFK-BUR/LAX/LGB/PSP all under performed system RASM growth, although on an absolute basis BUR/LAX look healthy. ONT also looks decent. If B6 ultimately decides to eliminate its unprofitable/break-even LGB focus city, I could see them potentially keeping a daily flight each to JFK/BOS.

It looks like BUF/MCO-LAX are both +12% yield vs prior year. That's pretty impressive IMO. The absolute fare level of BUFLAX is actually not bad, especially when you consider that it's pure O&D. MCOLAX still struggles, but it's not horrendous.

PHX looks great over last year (+5% to JFK, +15% to BOS), and the absolute fare level looks fine too. I think B6 should add a second frequency on BOSPHX and give AA some real competition (and perhaps thwart DL from entering). Mint could potentially work too, although I don't see it being an overwhelming success.

B6 must be really happy with those SMF numbers, and to see SJC holding its own despite the increased competition (particularly from JFK). JFKPDX is a perennial disappointment, and B6 is simply not competitive against AS/DL. SLC doesn't look half bad, with all markets posting RASM increases (including JFK, where capacity was doubled).

IMO if and when B6 needs to adjust transcon flying to make room for Europe (particularly PM TATL departures from JFK), I can see PDX/LGB/OAK/RNO all being shifted to morning/afternoon departures (if not outright dropped). That is, unless they can get some AA slots (if and when the FAA/PANYNJ calls their bluff), and/or move some capacity to EWR (particularly to Florida/the Islands).



BUF-LAX isn’t purely O&D, you probably don’t realize it so I’ll let you know. Since they adjusted the flight time so it arrives in LAX midday instead of late at night, there is now the possibility of passengers connecting onto a Hawaiian Airlines flight, similar to what they do in JFK/BOS with the early morning arrivals from locations like SYR/BTV/ROC/BUF. I haven’t done it yet but I know people that have and it ended up being around $800RT.


Thanks, no I did not know that and it's a good point. And now that you mention it, in addition to HA there are probably some connections to Asia/Australia too (particularly to those destinations that cannot be reached via JFK/BUF, such as SIN or SYD). Although I don't know if we're talking about 20-30% of overall traffic here, or like 2-3%.


I know JetBlue has agreements with other airlines, but I don’t know (other than HA and Cape Air) which partner airlines can check bags and ticket passengers all the way thru from an original JetBlue destination to a non-JetBlue destination (and vise-versa)
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