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evank516
Posts: 1953
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:25 pm

doulasc wrote:
JetBlue does not seem to be in a expanding mode.They are pulling out of DAB and people said the flights were always almost full.Also they are dropping BWI-FLL/MCO.How is JetBlue doing at PHL for their routes to BOS and FLL.I would like JetBlue to give CMH another try.They also dropped a few routes from FLL.


DAB was yanked because they couldn't get enough of a premium off of the airfares they charged, not because of loads.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:27 pm

Looks like AA is the worst off from all airliners mentioned. Maybe we should start a couple new threads: "AA does it need to be saved from its management?" And: "AA on the brink of bankruptcy!".
 
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VS4ever
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Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
JFKORH 0150 B6 006884 78.30 78.30 00.00 100.00% 100.0 40.02% 31.34 0.2089 100.00%
yeah, these are not good numbers.


On face value, i agree with you, 2 things to note about this route however.

1. It's cheap to run as it's utilizing a frame that would otherwise be parked overnight at JFK most likely, so it's just squeezing a little bit of extra revenue plus reduced cost I am sure, because it will be a damn sight cheaper to park a frame at ORH as a RON than it would be at JFK.
2. I will be curious if things improve in Q4, October T-100 numbers have proven the best yet in terms of loads and Q3 includes September, which is always a struggle especially on niche routes like this.

So yes, doesn't look pretty, but the economics of this route have to be put into perspective a little bit and there's no telling the quid pro quo that Massport have provided B6 for running this route, outside of marketing $$$. (which i believe was $100K, same as AA and DL)..

PS... awesome analysis generally as always. helps me put some of my metrics into perspective when you push it up against the fare data.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5431
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:02 pm

JFK ORH is flown for political reasons with massport at Logan.

ORH, like SWF is a loser for B6 but needs to be served minimally
 
klm617
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:03 pm

JetBlue is adding a 4th Detroit flight from Boston in September.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 461
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:20 pm

Boston looks like it is surging in growth to me.
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 2161
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:24 pm

klm617 wrote:
JetBlue is adding a 4th Detroit flight from Boston in September.


Right now appears to starting from 9/5 , 4 weekly

new flight is

Thu, Fri, Sun, Mon
B62237 BOS 13.10 - 15.17 DTW 320
B62336 DTW 15.58 - 17.55 BOS 320
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:21 pm

klm617 wrote:
JetBlue is adding a 4th Detroit flight from Boston in September.

Interesting, not the only change for September extension. JFK-RDU/ORD are both back to 3 a day with an additional A320 it looks like. BOS-DCA is up to 11 a day. BOS-RDU is up to 7 a day (was 5 a day just a year ago). FLL-RDU/RIC are both getting 1 A320 replacing E90. BOS-CLT back down to 2 daily. BOS-AUS at 2 a day, BOS-BNA at 3 a day and BOS-CLE at 4 a day. Btw, some of this is peak departures. T/W/Sa did not increase.

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
JFKORH 0150 B6 006884 78.30 78.30 00.00 100.00% 100.0 40.02% 31.34 0.2089 100.00%
yeah, these are not good numbers.


On face value, i agree with you, 2 things to note about this route however.

1. It's cheap to run as it's utilizing a frame that would otherwise be parked overnight at JFK most likely, so it's just squeezing a little bit of extra revenue plus reduced cost I am sure, because it will be a damn sight cheaper to park a frame at ORH as a RON than it would be at JFK.
2. I will be curious if things improve in Q4, October T-100 numbers have proven the best yet in terms of loads and Q3 includes September, which is always a struggle especially on niche routes like this.

So yes, doesn't look pretty, but the economics of this route have to be put into perspective a little bit and there's no telling the quid pro quo that Massport have provided B6 for running this route, outside of marketing $$$. (which i believe was $100K, same as AA and DL)..

PS... awesome analysis generally as always. helps me put some of my metrics into perspective when you push it up against the fare data.


sorry, I didn't add more caveat to this. This is obviously a route that B6 and MassPort is invested in for the long haul. It's going to take people a while to catch on to ORH. In fact, the guy who sits next to me at work is now flying this route instead of taking the bus. But that kind of gives me a sense of what this flight is competing against.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, the Q3 fare data is finally out. So I will post the mint stuff first as usual.


First just wanted to say thanks for posting this. This is a goldmine of valuable data.

tphuang wrote:
to start off NYC-LAX/SFO
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
JFKLAX 2475 AA 193821 580.49 595.79 326.36 94.32% 102.0 89.97% 536.04 0.2166
JFKLAX 2475 AS 112889 254.45 253.97 305.77 99.07% 151.8 86.68% 220.13 0.0889
JFKLAX 2475 B6 253217 346.26 346.53 294.55 99.48% 159.0 92.43% 320.29 0.1294
JFKLAX 2475 DL 305010 415.79 413.73 527.78 98.20% 213.5 91.59% 378.92 0.1531
EWRLAX 2454 AS 92220 266.15 266.02 274.93 98.53% 154.5 90.46% 240.64 0.0981
EWRLAX 2454 UA 339514 370.28 366.70 548.18 98.03% 174.6 95.06% 348.60 0.1421
JFKSFO 2586 AA 73716 543.11 557.71 346.87 93.08% 102.0 86.55% 482.70 0.1867
JFKSFO 2586 AS 94668 247.68 246.85 291.58 98.16% 152.9 87.08% 214.96 0.0831
JFKSFO 2586 B6 153349 326.95 327.05 306.09 99.52% 159.0 90.39% 295.62 0.1143
JFKSFO 2586 DL 211075 360.40 357.05 543.20 98.20% 186.8 89.33% 318.95 0.1233
EWRSFO 2565 AS 96584 243.78 243.10 294.31 98.67% 160.1 89.65% 217.95 0.0850
EWRSFO 2565 UA 450792 397.75 391.09 565.84 96.19% 202.3 93.18% 364.42 0.1421

A couple of things here. AS continues to struggle. The gap between B6 and AS exploded last quarter after VX merger was complete and it has stayed the same this quarter.
AA is really loosing any sort of edge on the premium transcon market. For a while there, it's yield was as much as 100% more than B6 on LAX and 90% more than B6 on SFO. They are both down to the 60s%. DL seems to have gained a lot on JFK-LAX at AA expense and so have B6. This is their best quarter in the past year on this 2 routes with respect to their competitors.


Agree that B6 is pulling away from AS, and AA's lead is shrinking. I suspect this trend will continue as AS puts more 737's at JFK (which I believe have more seats and an inferior product compared to the VX Airbii), and as AA continues to pull down capacity from NYC in general. B6/DL (and UA @ EWR) have a lot to gain here.

I don't believe the 11th Mint frequency on JFK-LAX ran for all of Q3 last year. It's loaded for Q3 2019, so it will be interesting to see if B6 can sustain these yields with the added flight.

Although 6x on JFK-SFO is competitive, the market appears to be able to support a 7th frequency.

tphuang wrote:
Other NYC routes.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKSAN 2446 AA 62972 237.83 236.61 285.08 97.48% 160.0 86.69% 205.12 0.0839 78.29%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 52042 294.68 294.56 358.22 99.81% 159.0 88.94% 261.99 0.1071 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 91764 287.09 284.64 387.95 97.63% 177.2 87.19% 248.18 0.1015 94.73%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 26021 219.09 217.97 272.38 97.94% 169.6 84.28% 183.69 0.0758 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 UA 81080 332.47 326.99 411.12 93.49% 168.4 88.19% 288.37 0.1189 N/A
EWRSAN 2425 WN 24960 233.20 233.68 225.40 94.22% 163.4 84.84% 198.25 0.0818 N/A
JFKSEA 2422 AA 56503 248.32 246.37 338.26 97.88% 160.1 82.66% 203.65 0.0841 88.38%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 83808 241.52 240.57 296.03 98.29% 171.2 91.17% 219.33 0.0906 95.18%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 49539 257.87 257.39 352.83 99.49% 159.0 89.53% 230.44 0.0951 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 147760 296.56 293.40 453.13 98.02% 178.6 90.70% 266.11 0.1099 115.48%
JFKLAS 2248 AA 66976 238.45 234.21 272.75 88.99% 159.9 92.04% 215.58 0.0959 101.16%
JFKLAS 2248 AS 24904 190.89 189.75 250.71 98.13% 148.8 92.49% 175.49 0.0781 82.35%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 108041 233.41 233.21 321.01 99.77% 167.2 91.38% 213.11 0.0948 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 140725 257.70 256.17 441.14 99.17% 177.3 91.87% 235.35 0.1047 110.44%
Again, B6 doing very well on NYC-SAN vs competitor, althought it was weaker in absolute terms than JFK-SFO this quarter. Still very healthy market. They really made up a lot of ground on JFK-SEA. Now have a huge advantage over AA to both SEA/SAN. Their gap vs DL on JFK-SEA is at an all time low. It wasn't long ago, DL had a 60% RASM advantage over B6. Now, that's down to 15%. And the gap vs DL on JFK-LAS is down to 10%, which is also smallest I've seen since I've started tracking this.

As a whole, I think AA is in a lot of trouble in NYC. Their plan this past summer was to run 2 to 3x daily on SEA/SAN, which ended up with fare numbers that can't possibly pay for the high costs of AA flights. B6 made a lot of gains this summer. DL is doing pretty well. AS is out of its depth. I don't see how it stays on EWR-SAN.


JFK-SAN continues to remain a point of strength, and JFK-SEA has vastly improved. JFK-LAS seems to do OK too when considering that only 50% of the flights have Mint, although I don't think the coach fares are all that strong.

To your point, I don't see how AA hangs onto JFK-SEA/SAN with these types of yields. Not only are they yielding lower than DL/B6, but their costs are higher.

tphuang wrote:
Now out of BOS
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSSFO 2704 AS 61429 252.79 251.67 292.05 97.21% 150.7 86.35% 217.31 0.0804 80.04%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 119299 313.50 313.38 328.91 99.23% 159.0 86.64% 271.51 0.1004 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 46343 285.19 282.16 362.61 96.24% 168.4 87.67% 247.37 0.0915 91.11%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 212788 348.16 344.85 470.08 97.36% 171.4 91.89% 316.88 0.1172 116.71%
BOSLAX 2611 AA 156056 258.26 254.84 373.06 97.11% 172.1 83.86% 213.72 0.0819 83.30%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 58292 224.49 223.00 359.47 98.90% 153.3 83.23% 185.60 0.0711 72.34%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 103427 287.55 287.16 369.04 99.52% 159.0 89.35% 256.58 0.0983 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 73457 285.67 279.82 412.21 95.58% 166.4 89.00% 249.03 0.0954 97.06%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 81639 256.53 254.60 290.70 94.66% 178.5 87.11% 221.80 0.0849 86.44%
BOSSAN 2588 AS 26494 286.54 285.66 323.33 97.66% 160.7 89.63% 256.03 0.0989 83.81%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 52753 338.04 338.82 280.03 98.68% 159.0 90.16% 305.47 0.1180 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 AS 86652 291.73 290.57 340.80 97.69% 175.2 89.94% 261.34 0.1047 108.96%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 66177 273.09 273.10 269.25 99.69% 159.0 87.83% 239.86 0.0961 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 69647 277.27 273.66 333.19 93.93% 160.0 92.79% 253.93 0.1017 105.87%
Again, very similar numbers to last quarter. All the yields are higher due to being summer season. DL seems to be doing better on BOS-SFO this quarter, but they are giving up D1 on this in Q4, which is probably wise. AA desperately needs to try something new on BOS-LAX, which is bleeding money. SEA is a struggle still, but they've made up some ground with AS/DL.


Looks like BOS-SAN is now B6's highest yielding Mint market. I suppose this explains why B6 is retrying the third frequency this summer. Very impressive.

BOS-SFO seems to have rebounded nicely for everyone. I think there is an argument for B6 to add a sixth frequency there and really give UA a run for its dominance (and pull further away from DL/AS).

BOS-LAX is probably fine as-is, with B6 dominating the competition (although DL had a decent performance).

BOS-SEA is, IMO, the most impressive improvement. Not only is it now performing better than JFK-SEA, but B6 has nearly closed the gap with AS/DL. It may actually be (*gasp*) - profitable. (That said, the 3rd frequency doesn't return this summer, so I'd expect these numbers to improve even further.)

tphuang wrote:
out of South Florida
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLLAX 2343 AS 22288 224.19 223.64 386.12 99.66% 142.9 85.70% 191.65 0.0818 68.49%
FLLLAX 2343 B6 52601 311.18 311.25 294.51 99.56% 159.0 89.90% 279.81 0.1194 100.00%
FLLLAX 2343 NK 30223 107.68 106.88 140.00 97.60% 180.0 91.25% 97.53 0.0416 34.86%
MIALAX 2342 AA 248862 276.97 274.10 362.44 96.75% 188.6 90.33% 247.59 0.1057 88.53%
MIALAX 2342 DL 11999 271.67 267.02 279.76 63.49% 160.0 92.58% 247.22 0.1056 88.44%
FLLSFO 2584 B6 52066 274.18 274.17 276.02 99.29% 159.0 89.23% 244.63 0.0947 100.00%
FLLSFO 2584 UA 26700 234.43 230.94 261.27 88.50% 165.9 87.47% 202.00 0.0782 82.57%
MIASFO 2585 AA 116481 256.84 254.47 310.90 95.80% 184.9 86.04% 218.95 0.0847 89.44%
MIASFO 2585 UA 21556 264.16 250.44 491.17 94.30% 146.1 81.06% 202.99 0.0785 82.89%
Again, they are doing really well out of FLL against Legacy competition. Q3 is not a great quarter for transcon out of FLL, but they have been expanding in RASM vs legacies. They've pushed DL off MIA-LAX for 2019 and UA has also just given up on MIA-SFO. Not really sure why UA quit on MIA-SFO rather than FLL-SFO, since they've generally done better out of MIA.


No surprises here, although I continue to be impressed by how much of a premium B6 generates over AA @ MIA. As a (not perfect) comparison, UA handily beats B6 on NYC transcon. What a dynamic...

tphuang wrote:
On the whole, this is a pretty good quarter for mint routes. Based on how FLL routes have improved over the course of 2 years, I think they will continued to gain on routes without premium competition like BOS-SEA.


Certainly. One thing to look out for is how AA performs on BOS-LAX when it brings the A321T on 2 of the frequencies (and I think it may be on MIA-LAX too at some point), and if they are able to get back some of those customers who may have chosen a lie-flat on B6 (or DL) and/or generate a better yield than its standard domestic F.

As an aside, a friend of mine - a loyal DL flier - recently flew Mint LAS-JFK for the first time and could not stop raving about it. Although he acknowledged that the bulk of his flying will remain on DL, he will use Mint again if and when the opportunity arises. Somehow I suspect there are a lot of loyal Legacy fliers who may feel the same way, especially as the value of their frequent flier status continues to get devalued, and especially as the Legacies generally choose not to effectively compete with Mint outside of the traditional NYC-SF/LA premium markets.

tphuang wrote:
I noticed today while just looking through twitter that someone who apparently works for JetBlue in the west coast visited SFO terminal 1 construction area. Looks like B6 is moving into the T1 later this year. No idea how many gates they will have.

Anyhow yield data on the various new domestic routes they've launched recently or they added major capacity to.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSATL 0946 B6 104258 109.63 109.42 241.28 99.84% 151.8 79.94% 87.47 0.0925 100.00%
BOSATL 0946 DL 372120 151.39 149.27 327.98 98.82% 188.7 91.26% 136.22 0.1440 155.74%
BOSATL 0946 NK 019391 60.57 60.40 73.61 98.71% 145.5 88.28% 53.32 0.0564 60.96%
BOSATL 0946 WN 054318 113.28 112.51 153.14 98.09% 154.1 80.68% 90.77 0.0960 103.78%
Again, pretty big bloodbath here. Just as a point of reference, DL's fare was $262 in 2016 Q3. If we say that half of those DL boarded these flights are on direct itinerary, then B6 entrance cost them about $20 million this quarter on BOS-ATL itinerary alone.


No wonder DL is pissed at B6 ha.

These numbers still blow, but it's a market B6 will have to remain in. I wonder if NK and/or WN will eventually get themselves out.

tphuang wrote:
BOSMSP 1124 B6 085279 130.91 130.91 00.00 100.00% 150.1 84.94% 111.19 0.0989 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 165246 186.02 183.42 412.29 98.86% 174.9 92.61% 169.86 0.1511 152.76%
BOSMSP 1124 NK 016605 53.34 52.52 95.55 98.10% 145.8 90.37% 47.46 0.0422 42.68%
BOSMSP 1124 SY 042626 109.90 109.90 00.00 100.00% 153.4 87.65% 96.33 0.0857 86.63%
First full quarter on BOS-MSP. Shows how much things have changed here since B6 entrance. Not a surprised SY is bailing based on the fare numbers. DL fare was at $312 in 2016 Q3. Using the same assumption as above, DL lost about $10.5 million this quarter due to B6 entrance. Imo, this along with impact on BOS-LGA and JFK-ATL are big parts why DL is going after B6.


Somewhat surprising to see B6 do better to MSP than to ATL (although these numbers are still not great). I'm mildly encouraged by this.

tphuang wrote:
BOSORD 0867 AA 256525 165.97 163.69 313.72 98.48% 163.5 88.55% 144.95 0.1672 117.11%
BOSORD 0867 B6 085844 144.38 144.08 239.88 99.69% 119.2 85.91% 123.78 0.1428 100.00%
BOSORD 0867 NK 29896 45.68 45.55 72.5 99.52% 180.0 91.76% 41.8 0.0482 33.77%
BOSORD 0867 UA 231671 182.08 180.45 302.08 98.66% 169.1 90.72% 163.70 0.1888 132.25%
JFKORD 0740 9E 028894 198.31 197.52 685.00 99.84% 075.9 91.52% 180.77 0.2443 127.37%
JFKORD 0740 AA 026624 169.48 170.97 164.55 76.75% 159.7 91.61% 156.63 0.2117 110.35%
JFKORD 0740 B6 051562 161.94 160.89 391.00 99.55% 120.8 88.22% 141.93 0.1918 100.00%
JFKORD 0740 OO 026711 196.27 195.50 242.82 98.37% 070.2 88.32% 172.67 0.2333 121.66%
You will remember that they made a major tweak last year to have a business schedule on BOS-ORD while reducing JFK-ORD to three daily since they have only one gate there. The first quarter with this change seems to have gone okay. Their BOS yield numbers came down a little bit. JFK yields look great considering that they are running A320s here almost half of the time. That's better than a lot of their Florida yield, although those are mostly on A320/A321s.


Even at slightly lower fares, I think B6 is still making money on BOS-ORD. JFK-ORD also seems to be very profitable.

tphuang wrote:
FLLATL 0581 B6 045441 122.24 122.24 00.00 100.00% 150.3 83.27% 101.79 0.1752 100.00%
FLLATL 0581 DL 381874 145.85 145.82 364.15 99.98% 182.6 87.98% 128.29 0.2208 126.03%
FLLATL 0581 NK 120563 47.94 47.91 63.62 99.84% 172.5 87.46% 41.9 0.0721 41.17%
FLLATL 0581 WN 110003 124.94 124.95 124.82 96.05% 149.7 88.32% 110.36 0.1900 108.42%
These are not bad numbers considering they are running A320s here. I would imagine they are supporting a lot of this with connections. Probably should add a third flight to be more competitive with WN in schedule.


Not bad numbers considering all the competition. A third frequency to match NK/WN may be worthwhile.

tphuang wrote:
FLLSLC 2084 B6 023773 156.77 156.74 174.37 99.85% 150.0 86.13% 135.01 0.0648 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 030752 226.61 208.69 311.27 82.52% 186.6 91.03% 189.97 0.0912 140.72%
Seems like a generally low yielding quarter on this route.


No surprises here. FLL/MCO/BOS-SLC I believe are at the bottom of the list of profitability for B6's transcon (or near-transcon) franchise.

tphuang wrote:
MCOATL 0404 B6 021779 76.40 76.39 94.71 99.94% 150.0 78.91% 60.28 0.1492 100.00%
MCOATL 0404 DL 503821 164.41 164.11 405.56 99.88% 197.2 88.77% 145.68 0.3606 241.67%
MCOATL 0404 F9 36573 34.61 34.61 0.000 100.00% 229.0 86.81% 30.04 0.0744 49.84%
MCOATL 0404 NK 47149 32.91 32.87 143.0 99.97% 163.2 80.92% 26.60 0.0658 44.13%
MCOATL 0404 WN 123685 118.13 117.95 172.82 99.68% 148.7 81.64% 96.29 0.2383 159.74%
Another very competitive route. I think they are always going to have a struggle here if they keep this going.


I'm still confused why they fly this. B6 will try to build MCO into a hub down the line after BOS/FLL are full, but there is no reason to burn money in the meantime.

tphuang wrote:
BOSSYR 0265 B6 013637 111.50 107.92 195.58 95.91% 100.0 74.52% 80.42 0.3035 100.00%
BOSSYR 0265 MQ 005221 128.80 128.82 122.24 99.76% 044.0 85.98% 110.77 0.4180 137.74%
I can't see AA last much longer on this and ROC. These are just not sustainable yields for 44 seat aircraft. They've already given on PIT which had similar yields.


And how long after AA drops this will DL announce it? ;)

tphuang wrote:
JFKONT 2429 B6 006744 170.46 170.46 00.00 100.00% 150.0 86.46% 147.38 0.0607 100.00%
BOSBUR 2601 B6 003940 162.20 157.84 259.95 95.73% 154.0 51.17% 80.77 0.0311 100.00%
Keep in mind that these 2 routes started in September after summer season and they had massive discount to promote the flights. All things considered, JFK-ONT looks pretty good even given the extreme late departure out of ONT. That's really good LF. BOS-BUR on the other hand did not start off well to no one's surprise seeing that they land before 5 am at BOS. It's no wonder they are retiming the flight and reducing BOS-LGB down to once a day. The original plan is not working out too great.


JFK-ONT is about as expected for an off-peak launch. We'll have to see how this evolves over the coming quarters.

BOS-BUR is just miserable. I'm glad to see them come to their senses by re-timing the departure from BUR to the morning, although having a plane flying cross-country during daylight eats up valuable flying time. This market will need to produce far higher yields + loads with the new schedule if it wants to stick around.

tphuang wrote:
JFKORH 0150 B6 006884 78.30 78.30 00.00 100.00% 100.0 40.02% 31.34 0.2089 100.00%
yeah, these are not good numbers.


Frankly I'm surprised they're even this high lol.

tphuang wrote:
JFKATL 0760 B6 044811 161.43 160.18 289.42 99.03% 150.8 83.45% 133.66 0.1759 100.00%
JFKATL 0760 DL 214697 204.27 202.55 368.16 98.96% 172.8 87.27% 176.76 0.2326 132.25%
Again, another good quarter here on JFK-ATL. Easily their best performing route out of DL fortress hubs. DL numbers are down from $225 in 2016 Q3. And they outperformed both AA (considering AA is flying regionals and E90s here) and WN out of LGA
LGAATL 0762 AA 026122 181.98 181.35 191.43 93.80% 099.2 77.02% 139.68 0.1833 N/A
LGAATL 0762 DL 429421 218.52 215.91 397.19 98.56% 175.5 88.71% 191.53 0.2514 N/A
LGAATL 0762 F9 029865 104.31 104.31 00.00 100.00% 183.0 91.67% 95.61 0.1255 N/A
LGAATL 0762 WN 107759 142.51 142.23 186.39 99.36% 151.6 83.80% 119.19 0.1564 N/A
LGAATL 0762 YX 033062 198.74 196.03 331.78 98.01% 076.0 73.24% 143.57 0.1884 N/A


Certainly a great market for B6. I could even see this becoming a candidate for the 321 during peak periods.

tphuang wrote:
I will do rant here again on their JFK efforts. Outside of winter time, they pretty much can't loose money with anything greater than 500 miles out of JFK on a leisure schedule. ATL is a major success right off the bat. They do great to all the within-perimeter major legacy fortress hubs like CLT, ATL, HOU, DEN and ORD. (I will post more JFK numbers later, but surprisingly a very quarter for them vs their major competitors.) I understand that the Caribbean stuff probably makes more money in summer time, but there is no reason to keep routes like RNO, ABQ and BTV open when they still don't fly to MSP and DFW. And there is no excuse to only running twice a day on JFK-ORD this summer because they are out of aircraft.


I share your sentiments. RNO/ABQ just don't generate enough revenue nor do they have enough growth upside (in the current B6 network) to make them sustainable. I'd much rather see B6 take those slots/aircraft and try something like DFW, MSP, and BNA, and add capacity to profitable markets like RDU, CLT, and HOU.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:07 pm

BOS - AUS new flight, appears to start 9/4, is 6 weekly and the timings for the return are a bit better.

Existing flight:
B61039 BOS 07.07 - 10.26 AUS 320 D
B61038 AUS 19.04 - 23.56 BOS 320 D


New Flight
B61139 BOS 11.25 - 14.39 AUS 320 x6
B61138 AUS 15.18 - 20.13 BOS 320 x6
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Lilienthal
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:13 pm

Very interesting Episode of NPR's "How i built this" Podcast with Neeleman:

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/01/69068658 ... d-neeleman
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
klm617 wrote:
JetBlue is adding a 4th Detroit flight from Boston in September.

Interesting, not the only change for September extension. JFK-RDU/ORD are both back to 3 a day with an additional A320 it looks like. BOS-DCA is up to 11 a day. BOS-RDU is up to 7 a day (was 5 a day just a year ago). FLL-RDU/RIC are both getting 1 A320 replacing E90. BOS-CLT back down to 2 daily. BOS-AUS at 2 a day, BOS-BNA at 3 a day and BOS-CLE at 4 a day. Btw, some of this is peak departures. T/W/Sa did not increase.


Very interesting changes (I guess last week's OAG filings were not yet complete for B6). The BOS additions (DTW, DCA, RDU, AUS, CLE, BNA) are all markets that B6 competes in with DL, so it's pretty clear they're trying to play defense with the limited resources that they have. I think they calculate that the chances of DL entering BOS-CLT are minimal, hence the reversion back to 2x.

FLL-RDU/RIC upgauge of 1 frequency to the A320 I suspect is to more effectively compete with NK, which is flying larger planes in these markets.
 
BravoEcho757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:13 pm

impilot wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
evank516 wrote:

Think of all the slots they have at LGA and JFK (though UA doesn't fly to JFK). Wonder how much (if any) they'd have to divest as a result of the massive EWR hub.

That is certainly an issue for them.

But the real problem is this. JetBlue is an LCC that has stimulated markets with low fares. United can’t make money at B6 fares and when they try to raise fares, traffic would shrink. Possibly dramatically. Yes NYC could be a regulatory problem, UA would lose badly to DL in BOS and NK plus WN would slaughter UA in price sensitive FLL. But the problem is B6 network isn’t profitable at legacy costs. Period. There is no revenue premium United could drive in most ofB6’s network by being a global carrier. The revenue synergy doesn’t exist to make up for the higher costs.


Does jetblue really have lower fares? Most of the times I’ve compared on overlapping markets with legacies, JetBlue isn’t any cheaper. Sometimes it’s more expensive. Sometimes it’s a little cheaper. Just depends. But generally people don’t fly jetblue because it’s cheaper from point A to point B than brand X, at least not anecdotally from my experience. I would say that JetBlue’s status as an LCC isn’t necessarily due to low ticket costs, but lower cost structure and higher aircraft utilization than the legacy carriers. So I’m not sure I buy the theory that price sensitive flyers would avoid UA post hypothetical merger on routes currently flown by B6 due to fare increases, bc I believe that’s a false premise.


I fly out of BOS quite regularly and most of the time Delta tends to have better fares. Another example is in ROC when my sister lives and works. She loves JetBlue but sadly they are usually more pricy when she flies to visit friends in NYC. I know cities like ROC have higher than normal fares but even with Southwest and JetBlue (and Allegiant? Correct me if I'm wrong) it's kinda sad that fares are routinely over 200 r/t and in Buffalo they're usually much cheaper. Seems to me that the idea of being a LCC is a phenomenon that has since passed.
 
Buffalomatt1027
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:28 am

BravoEcho757 wrote:
impilot wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
That is certainly an issue for them.

But the real problem is this. JetBlue is an LCC that has stimulated markets with low fares. United can’t make money at B6 fares and when they try to raise fares, traffic would shrink. Possibly dramatically. Yes NYC could be a regulatory problem, UA would lose badly to DL in BOS and NK plus WN would slaughter UA in price sensitive FLL. But the problem is B6 network isn’t profitable at legacy costs. Period. There is no revenue premium United could drive in most ofB6’s network by being a global carrier. The revenue synergy doesn’t exist to make up for the higher costs.


Does jetblue really have lower fares? Most of the times I’ve compared on overlapping markets with legacies, JetBlue isn’t any cheaper. Sometimes it’s more expensive. Sometimes it’s a little cheaper. Just depends. But generally people don’t fly jetblue because it’s cheaper from point A to point B than brand X, at least not anecdotally from my experience. I would say that JetBlue’s status as an LCC isn’t necessarily due to low ticket costs, but lower cost structure and higher aircraft utilization than the legacy carriers. So I’m not sure I buy the theory that price sensitive flyers would avoid UA post hypothetical merger on routes currently flown by B6 due to fare increases, bc I believe that’s a false premise.


I fly out of BOS quite regularly and most of the time Delta tends to have better fares. Another example is in ROC when my sister lives and works. She loves JetBlue but sadly they are usually more pricy when she flies to visit friends in NYC. I know cities like ROC have higher than normal fares but even with Southwest and JetBlue (and Allegiant? Correct me if I'm wrong) it's kinda sad that fares are routinely over 200 r/t and in Buffalo they're usually much cheaper. Seems to me that the idea of being a LCC is a phenomenon that has since passed.


The Buffalo / NYC route has more frequency between B6, United, and Delta ..... hence the cheaper prices. Rochester is often more expensive to fly out of vs flying out of Buffalo.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:33 am

Maybe the flight times on BUR-BOS are hurting things? Personally, getting into Boston at 4 am does not sound appealing.
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:43 am

Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?
 
arfbool
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:45 am

B752OS wrote:
Maybe the flight times on BUR-BOS are hurting things? Personally, getting into Boston at 4 am does not sound appealing.


It's not. No T service for another hour, and nowhere to go if you don't live there. But JFK is the only other destination out of Burbank and that flight arrives at 6am which is only slightly better, yet seems to have no problem staying filled. The overnight was the only option for years until last September when the daytime JFK option was reintroduced, and that seems to be doing fine as well. My theory is most people don't know about this flight, and don't just discover it by accident through booking engine searches. Instead, it's got a small but devoted following of people who know about it and prefer it to LAX. It's the same people taking the flight over and over again, not all kinds of folks experimenting with a different airport
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:53 am

arfbool wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Maybe the flight times on BUR-BOS are hurting things? Personally, getting into Boston at 4 am does not sound appealing.


It's not. No T service for another hour, and nowhere to go if you don't live there. But JFK is the only other destination out of Burbank and that flight arrives at 6am which is only slightly better, yet seems to have no problem staying filled. The overnight was the only option for years until last September when the daytime JFK option was reintroduced, and that seems to be doing fine as well. My theory is most people don't know about this flight, and don't just discover it by accident through booking engine searches. Instead, it's got a small but devoted following of people who know about it and prefer it to LAX. It's the same people taking the flight over and over again, not all kinds of folks experimenting with a different airport


Thankfully B6 have recognized the error of their ways and have retimed the flight. Nine4nine posted this in comment #194

New:
BOS-BUR DEP 1830 ARR 2200 (RON BUR)
BUR-BOS DEP 0700 ARR 1530

this should do a bit better
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tkoenig95
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:58 am

B6 traffic at AUS was down 2.5% for 2018. In such a bursting market such as Austin where did the negative traffic movement come from? I can't remember any frequency cuts except for not beginning 2x daily LGB later in the summer.
http://www.austintexas.gov/news/decembe ... -bergstrom
 
arfbool
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:00 am

VS4ever wrote:
arfbool wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Maybe the flight times on BUR-BOS are hurting things? Personally, getting into Boston at 4 am does not sound appealing.


It's not. No T service for another hour, and nowhere to go if you don't live there. But JFK is the only other destination out of Burbank and that flight arrives at 6am which is only slightly better, yet seems to have no problem staying filled. The overnight was the only option for years until last September when the daytime JFK option was reintroduced, and that seems to be doing fine as well. My theory is most people don't know about this flight, and don't just discover it by accident through booking engine searches. Instead, it's got a small but devoted following of people who know about it and prefer it to LAX. It's the same people taking the flight over and over again, not all kinds of folks experimenting with a different airport


Thankfully B6 have recognized the error of their ways and have retimed the flight. Nine4nine posted this in comment #194

New:
BOS-BUR DEP 1830 ARR 2200 (RON BUR)
BUR-BOS DEP 0700 ARR 1530

this should do a bit better


Yes, thanks. We had a small discussion last week on this schedule change in the Boston Aviation thread as well. It should improve the loads in both directions.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:28 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?


The only thing that LGB and SJU have in common is that they generate lower margins than JFK/BOS/FLL/MCO.

Interesting that they are being paired together. Although I have no idea what this news is (if it’s even news at all), I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cut everything from LGB other than JFK/BOS, trim some SJU capacity (unforuntaltely the hurricane only exasperated the trend of economic stagnation and population decline), and reallocate those resources to BOS/FLL.

The truth of the matter is that B6 is fighting to remain #1 against a very aggressive and formidable DL @ BOS, as well as defend its leading position against NK/WN @ FLL. Garbage yielding LGB regional flying and declining yields at SJU needs to be cut to make room for more pressing priorities at BOS/FLL.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:08 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?



LGB is a ghost town and not worthy of a dedicated call-in so they bundled it with SJU which, while not a true crew base, has enough personnel to warrant one of these calls.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:14 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?


Rumor going around LGB that B6 will cut flights down to 5 daily flights 1 BOS, 2 JFK, 1 AUS and 1 SLC.
Hopefully it's not true because besides WN I LuV me some JetBlue at LGB.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it's true.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:33 am

I wish B6 would retime their SJU flights to BOS. A 2.18am return flight is no fun at all. Might actually be the worst non delayed flight i will ever take
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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FA9295
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:46 am

wnflyguy wrote:
StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?


Rumor going around LGB that B6 will cut flights down to 5 daily flights 1 BOS, 2 JFK, 1 AUS and 1 SLC.
Hopefully it's not true because besides WN I LuV me some JetBlue at LGB.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it's true.

Flyguy

B6 just added a second LGB-SEA flight. I doubt that they'd take that away so soon...
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:44 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
First just wanted to say thanks for posting this. This is a goldmine of valuable data.

Thanks very much

Looks like BOS-SAN is now B6's highest yielding Mint market. I suppose this explains why B6 is retrying the third frequency this summer. Very impressive.

BOS-SFO seems to have rebounded nicely for everyone. I think there is an argument for B6 to add a sixth frequency there and really give UA a run for its dominance (and pull further away from DL/AS).

BOS-LAX is probably fine as-is, with B6 dominating the competition (although DL had a decent performance).

BOS-SEA is, IMO, the most impressive improvement. Not only is it now performing better than JFK-SEA, but B6 has nearly closed the gap with AS/DL. It may actually be (*gasp*) - profitable. (That said, the 3rd frequency doesn't return this summer, so I'd expect these numbers to improve even further.)

definitely a much better quarter for transcon out of BOS. My guess this is just healthy demand in Q3, but maybe it will be more than that
As an aside, a friend of mine - a loyal DL flier - recently flew Mint LAS-JFK for the first time and could not stop raving about it. Although he acknowledged that the bulk of his flying will remain on DL, he will use Mint again if and when the opportunity arises. Somehow I suspect there are a lot of loyal Legacy fliers who may feel the same way, especially as the value of their frequent flier status continues to get devalued, and especially as the Legacies generally choose not to effectively compete with Mint outside of the traditional NYC-SF/LA premium markets.

it's interesting you mentioned that. I do find on the online ff forums, there are quite a few people who have flown mint recently but otherwise would not have given B6 a chance. Especially with AA retreating so much in NYC, it's good time for B6 to put a fight for those looking elsewhere.

And how long after AA drops this will DL announce it? ;)

I don't think they will. Will have the BOS-BUF/PIT numbers below

BravoEcho757 wrote:

I fly out of BOS quite regularly and most of the time Delta tends to have better fares. Another example is in ROC when my sister lives and works. She loves JetBlue but sadly they are usually more pricy when she flies to visit friends in NYC. I know cities like ROC have higher than normal fares but even with Southwest and JetBlue (and Allegiant? Correct me if I'm wrong) it's kinda sad that fares are routinely over 200 r/t and in Buffalo they're usually much cheaper. Seems to me that the idea of being a LCC is a phenomenon that has since passed.

DL is adding new routes in BOS, so they have to undercut B6 in price. B6 just tend to undercut more when they enter new markets since they have lower cost.

StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?

That's interesting. Maybe there will be an announcement about LAX gates and they are moving most of the flights over there. Not sure abouot SJU stuff though. It's possible they will no longer have SJU has a focus city?

wnflyguy wrote:

Rumor going around LGB that B6 will cut flights down to 5 daily flights 1 BOS, 2 JFK, 1 AUS and 1 SLC.
Hopefully it's not true because besides WN I LuV me some JetBlue at LGB.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it's true.

Flyguy

I think they are only going to cut LGB further if they can get more gates at LAX. There are routes out of LGB that do pretty well like SEA, SLC and the transcon stuff. And Q3's LAS numbers don't look bad either. I will post LGB numbers later.
 
DELTA777
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:58 pm

Every Focus City is scheduled to have a Network Strategy call in March. I hope management would have enough sense not to use these calls to announce job cuts on a conference call.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:08 pm

"Network strategy review", what you do before a merger/takeover so it passes by regulators.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:35 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
Sounds like some LGB news is coming soon. The company just pushed a "save the date" (March 12) to all LGB pilots, flight attendants, and station personnel as well as SJU employees for an "Open Call: Ask the Experts: Network Strategy - LGB and SJU." Maybe the other shoe is finally going to drop for LGB. But why bundled this call with SJU? Moving equipment and assets there for more Caribbean flying?


Every base is having one of these calls, not just LGB. It’s an attempt to appease the masses who are upset at lack of direction and communication.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:52 pm

Alright, BOS numbers (not including the ones I already posted). As usual, these are based on a script that I have that parsed through LF and fare numbers. They don't account for connection traffic. It's not meant to be conclusive, but rather guidance of how the markets are doing. In this case, I also took out ULCCs.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 023228 218.26 217.57 310.76 99.25% 147.9 84.91% 184.74 0.1088 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 024497 214.00 203.80 269.17 84.40% 155.9 85.41% 174.07 0.1025 94.23%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 026277 208.68 205.59 229.99 87.33% 161.7 89.76% 184.54 0.1087 99.89%
definitely a weaker quarter for B6 in this market compared to Q2, when they were dominated. But still a relatively high yielding market out of BOS. Encouraging to see that they have added a flight here. Probably siphoning a lot of traffic from BOS-SAT. Don't think that will be added for a while

BOSBWI 0369 B6 067969 145.63 145.65 069.39 99.98% 100.2 76.98% 112.11 0.3038 100.00%
BOSBWI 0369 WN 194578 134.18 134.18 000.00 100.00% 150.3 80.94% 108.61 0.2943 96.87%
Pretty similar to Q2. They seemed to have cut a flight for most of Q3. Don't think they are making any money here.

BOSCLT 0728 AA 233075 192.76 191.78 254.33 98.43% 171.6 85.11% 163.23 0.2242 111.61%
BOSCLT 0728 B6 029527 179.91 179.80 291.71 99.90% 100.3 81.34% 146.25 0.2009 100.00%
Again similar to Q2, performing slightly worse. Yields are quite healthy

BOSDEN 1754 B6 048155 250.00 250.11 225.84 99.53% 150.0 89.67% 224.29 0.1279 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 150843 283.95 285.12 263.16 94.68% 174.3 94.69% 269.99 0.1539 120.38%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 072320 240.25 240.51 237.40 91.71% 163.2 91.74% 220.65 0.1258 98.38%
A much better quarter for B6 compared to Q2 in terms of yield and some improvement vs WN/UA also. I think an additional flight can be added here to be more competitive

BOSDFW 1562 AA 187276 261.35 257.41 332.72 94.77% 168.4 90.79% 233.71 0.1496 151.56%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 045351 172.69 172.69 000.00 100.00% 151.6 89.29% 154.20 0.0987 100.00%
Similar to Q2, not much changes in the dynamics here. Yield on a route like this is always going to struggle. Not to beat on a dead horse, but having 2 flights to JFK out of DFW would actually make B6 a more attractive option on this route.

BOSDTW 0632 B6 054263 161.11 161.11 000.00 100.00% 117.6 84.97% 136.90 0.2166 100.00%
BOSDTW 0632 DL 184816 200.13 198.74 248.55 97.22% 156.4 89.44% 177.75 0.2813 129.84%
Similar to Q2, although it seems like they are subbing in more A320s here now. Yield is still quite healthy. Makes sense they are adding a 4th flight on peak days.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 023090 160.67 160.67 000.00 100.00% 147.8 85.36% 137.15 0.0852 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 037113 193.72 191.87 202.66 82.90% 158.6 91.39% 175.36 0.1090 127.86%
Another huge bloodbath with WN. Things don't look to be getting any better here.

BOSBNA 0942 B6 048848 156.18 156.19 099.00 99.98% 149.1 87.62% 136.86 0.1453 100.00%
BOSBNA 0942 DL 028949 169.41 167.71 183.14 88.98% 072.6 90.41% 151.62 0.1610 110.79%
BOSBNA 0942 WN 069868 158.79 157.17 183.89 93.96% 156.2 88.59% 139.23 0.1478 101.73%
As I said before, probably the best performing routes DL added out of BNA. Again, they are running all regional here with a lot of 70 seaters against A320/B737 of B6/WN, so not surprising they yield a little higher. On the whole, all the new capacity added here for 2019 triggered by DL's decision to go to 4 daily will probably cause the yields to crash.

BOSEWR 0200 B6 057688 160.23 160.23 000.00 100.00% 100.4 64.06% 102.65 0.5132 100.00%
BOSEWR 0200 UA 214194 211.00 211.00 000.00 100.00% 148.0 80.70% 170.27 0.8514 165.88%
Not much change here. They did slightly worse than Q2

BOSPHL 0280 AA 257262 171.47 171.26 286.29 99.82% 159.9 81.60% 139.75 0.4991 106.37%
BOSPHL 0280 B6 076811 163.87 163.87 000.00 100.00% 100.2 80.18% 131.39 0.4692 100.00%
Very similar dynamics, they did slightly better than Q2. Would be interesting to see the numbers in Q4 since that's when DL entered the market.

BOSRDU 0612 B6 077497 178.80 178.79 251.90 99.98% 100.6 82.88% 148.19 0.2421 100.00%
BOSRDU 0612 DL 069920 188.83 188.55 226.36 99.24% 087.6 80.70% 152.15 0.2486 102.67%
Very similar numbers to Q2. Very healthy yields, which is probably why B6 is adding more flight here.

BOSRIC 0474 B6 059422 151.07 151.07 000.00 100.00% 100.7 81.60% 123.27 0.2601 100.00%
BOSRIC 0474 DL 026146 143.79 143.54 288.29 99.83% 070.3 77.69% 111.51 0.2352 90.46%
Similar yields to Q2, but they actually improved quite a bit vs DL this quarter. Not a candidate for more flights.

BOSIAD 0413 B6 044319 156.48 156.45 182.01 99.88% 100.5 83.23% 130.21 0.3153 100.00%
BOSIAD 0413 UA 097678 177.77 177.77 186.00 99.97% 161.2 85.69% 152.33 0.3688 116.99%
sadly, this is about to go and the numbers are okay even to the end.

Now, here is what I wanted to point out about the prospect of DL adding ROC and SYR. Here are CLE/BUF/PIT
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSCLE 0563 B6 047629 163.47 163.47 000.00 100.00% 100.4 87.55% 143.12 0.2542 100.00%
BOSCLE 0563 UA 024277 201.08 198.62 230.08 92.18% 051.0 93.05% 184.82 0.3283 129.13%
BOSBUF 0395 B6 069356 145.59 145.53 167.92 99.73% 101.1 80.74% 117.51 0.2975 100.00%
BOSBUF 0395 DL 021746 124.28 121.29 233.14 97.32% 070.1 75.87% 92.01 0.2329 78.31%
BOSPIT 0496 AA 016154 161.71 151.85 226.23 86.75% 044.0 79.12% 120.15 0.2422 102.03%
BOSPIT 0496 B6 077640 157.29 157.29 000.00 100.00% 100.3 74.87% 117.76 0.2374 100.00%
BOSPIT 0496 DL 026732 127.91 124.55 162.07 91.07% 076.0 76.12% 94.81 0.1912 80.51%
Notice UA's yield on BOS-CLE and how that's twice the yield of DL on BOS-BUF/PIT. And this is a route UA gave up on recently. So they can't be making that much money on it. Now the 50 seaters they were running on it are probably really high cost, but 70 seaters on BOS-BUF and 76 seaters on BOS-PIT aren't that much lower cost given they both have FC. That should give an indication of how badly these 2 routes are for DL after a year of operation. SYR/ROC are likely to have numbers like BUF.

Now for Florida stuff
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSRSW 1249 B6 065356 179.20 179.21 173.33 99.79% 147.2 82.55% 147.94 0.1184 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 B6 045218 158.39 157.44 233.38 98.75% 100.0 83.74% 131.84 0.1305 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 017547 167.97 161.07 233.72 90.50% 073.6 77.68% 125.11 0.1239 94.90%
BOSMCO 1121 B6 156955 172.89 172.67 207.38 99.37% 184.2 81.21% 140.22 0.1251 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 064844 171.91 169.66 213.78 94.90% 158.6 83.11% 141.00 0.1258 100.55%
BOSFLL 1237 B6 086263 181.36 180.77 213.27 98.17% 150.2 88.62% 160.19 0.1295 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 023876 152.63 146.70 194.65 87.62% 158.9 81.66% 119.79 0.0968 74.78%
BOSTPA 1185 B6 096518 159.64 159.58 180.66 99.68% 150.3 87.72% 139.99 0.1181 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 039996 162.59 159.54 229.65 95.65% 155.7 76.23% 121.62 0.1026 86.88%
Again, no sign of improvement for DL here either. All the yields drop in Q3 compared to Q2, which is not a surprise given this is Florida we are talking about, so I focus more on relative numbers. They caught up to B6 in yield on MCO , but dropped significantly on BOS-FLL. DL's TPA numbers are the worst i have seen in recent quarters and JAX is about flat.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1675
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:00 pm

DELTA777 wrote:
Every Focus City is scheduled to have a Network Strategy call in March. I hope management would have enough sense not to use these calls to announce job cuts on a conference call.

Doesn't this March mark the one year since they announced the first reductions in LGB.
Anyone have the early numbers on the less daily flights they tried out of LGB?
JetBlue slated to relocate to the Midfield terminal at LAX when it opens. That will give it the flexibility to have 5 gates vs 2 1/2 currently at LAX.
Drawing down LGB freeing up the aircraft to add more Mint markets and long hauls from LAX is a no brainer.

Also taking the aircraft from LGB and putting them into SJU could easily connect to more B6 east and Midwest markets then use that as a jumping point to some South America destinations vs having everything thru FLL.


Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
sargester
Posts: 162
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:29 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:17 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like AA is the worst off from all airliners mentioned. Maybe we should start a couple new threads: "AA does it need to be saved from its management?" And: "AA on the brink of bankruptcy!".


The "AA people are gonna destroy the industry" or the " poo poo everything they do" people are the worst
 
phllax
Posts: 506
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:21 pm

VS4ever wrote:
arfbool wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Maybe the flight times on BUR-BOS are hurting things? Personally, getting into Boston at 4 am does not sound appealing.


It's not. No T service for another hour, and nowhere to go if you don't live there. But JFK is the only other destination out of Burbank and that flight arrives at 6am which is only slightly better, yet seems to have no problem staying filled. The overnight was the only option for years until last September when the daytime JFK option was reintroduced, and that seems to be doing fine as well. My theory is most people don't know about this flight, and don't just discover it by accident through booking engine searches. Instead, it's got a small but devoted following of people who know about it and prefer it to LAX. It's the same people taking the flight over and over again, not all kinds of folks experimenting with a different airport


Thankfully B6 have recognized the error of their ways and have retimed the flight. Nine4nine posted this in comment #194

New:
BOS-BUR DEP 1830 ARR 2200 (RON BUR)
BUR-BOS DEP 0700 ARR 1530

this should do a bit better


I think the original timing of the BOS flight and the 2nd JFK had more to do with station ops. Using the original expanded schedule they could have one part time ground crew working two 4 hour shifts each based on the ticket counter times on the website of 11:30 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. 6:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. With the re-timing of the BOS flight, they'll need to have another ground crew shift. RON parking may have also been an issue, especially if the JFK flight cancels.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:09 pm

I normally don't post LGB right after BOS, but since that's where the discussion is. I will show the numbers. And I'm also posting LAX numbers from WN/AS as a comparison point

CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
LGBSFO 354 B6 098167 83.56 83.56 00.00 100.00% 150.4 87.61% 73.21 0.2068
LAXSFO 337 WN 147109 107.76 107.55 166.76 99.64% 143.8 69.94% 75.23 0.2232
LAXSFO 337 AS 218432 95.52 94.86 171.82 99.15% 148.5 77.64% 73.65 0.2185

LGBOAK 353 B6 073880 96.39 96.39 00.00 100.00% 150.2 76.16% 73.41 0.2080
LGBOAK 353 WN 078794 96.13 96.10 165.18 99.96% 143.1 81.70% 78.51 0.2224
LAXOAK 337 WN 209723 123.28 123.13 218.87 99.84% 144.9 66.15% 81.45 0.2417

LGBSJC 324 B6 052392 104.90 104.90 00.00 100.00% 150.3 56.21% 58.97 0.1820
LAXSJC 308 OO 040593 100.75 100.69 154.59 99.89% 75.9 75.66% 76.18 0.2473
LAXSJC 308 WN 174069 120.13 119.93 202.35 99.75% 144.9 67.23% 80.63 0.2618

LGBSMF 387 B6 045541 101.63 101.63 00.00 100.00% 150.0 82.50% 83.85 0.2167
LGBSMF 387 WN 051333 93.36 93.22 174.36 99.83% 143.0 81.58% 76.05 0.1965
LAXSMF 373 WN 140237 124.94 124.81 270.33 99.91% 144.2 67.77% 84.59 0.2268

LGBLAS 231 B6 111221 88.39 88.39 00.00 100.00% 150.4 91.28% 80.68 0.3492
LGBLAS 231 WN 024768 79.31 79.31 00.00 100.00% 143.0 74.98% 59.46 0.2574
LAXLAS 236 AS 089335 89.08 89.08 00.00 100.00% 143.0 83.27% 74.18 0.3143
LAXLAS 236 WN 212871 105.43 105.43 00.00 100.00% 144.9 78.37% 82.63 0.3501

so first of all, amongst the short haul stuff, they are not actually as awful as I'm accustomed to seeing. One caveat is that they did reduce schedule in September, so that might have helped their performance vs WN/AS had LAX which made no such reduction. SJC is terrible, but the other flights are at least comparable to what WN is getting out of LAX.

LGBSEA 965 B6 038531 176.00 176.00 00.00 100.00% 150.0 81.55% 143.52 0.1487
LAXSEA 954 AS 370089 162.18 161.72 198.21 98.75% 162.7 87.87% 142.10 0.1490
LAXSEA 954 DL 226847 172.76 172.13 258.69 99.28% 164.9 84.44% 145.34 0.1524
Again, pretty good numbers actually to SEA. I included DL here instead of WN who does not seem to operate this route. Considering it's all O&D on A320s, it's actually reasonably profitable. No idea why they cut it to one flight earlier this year.

LGBPDX 846 B6 039030 148.80 148.80 00.00 100.00% 150.3 82.43% 122.66 0.1450
LAXPDX 834 AS 184270 144.06 143.61 178.70 98.72% 155.3 89.09% 127.95 0.1534
LAXPDX 834 WN 053283 124.73 123.48 136.33 90.31% 146.4 84.24% 104.03 0.1247
LAXPDX 834 DL 091616 165.12 165.04 187.19 99.65% 123.1 85.96% 141.87 0.1701
Again, PDX numbers don't look bad. Better than WN for sure and comparable to AS.

LGBSLC 588 B6 073682 120.18 120.18 00.00 100.00% 150.0 89.15% 107.14 0.1822
LGBSLC 588 OO 051300 135.33 135.34 132.20 99.84% 76.0 92.26% 124.86 0.2123
LAXSLC 590 DL 195937 154.12 152.90 298.47 99.16% 166.1 86.17% 131.75 0.2233
LAXSLC 590 WN 051227 118.88 117.35 146.36 94.72% 144.0 72.17% 84.69 0.1435
Again, SLC is profitable given that it's operating on A320. Higher yielding than WN. Less than DL, but that's expected.

LGBRNO 402 B6 022605 146.57 146.57 00.00 100.00% 150.8 81.46% 119.40 0.2970
LAXRNO 391 WN 053726 153.03 150.32 194.68 93.89% 145.3 72.80% 109.44 0.2799
Here is the funny part, B6 had actually a really good quarter to RNO from both LGB and JFK and I had been calling them to can the station. Again, this is really good yield for A320 at such a short route with pure O&D.

LGBAUS 1226 B6 038273 148.44 148.44 00.00 100.00% 150.0 81.00% 120.24 0.0981
LAXAUS 1242 WN 057936 172.84 168.87 245.79 94.83% 150.8 80.20% 135.43 0.1090
LAXAUS 1242 DL 049832 195.76 192.61 396.25 98.45% 135.2 75.53% 145.47 0.1171
AUS was not good, but not as disastrous as some of the numbers we saw in Q1 and it generally isn't a low performing route.

LGBFLL 2327 B6 023188 178.29 176.11 296.03 98.18% 150.0 84.47% 148.76 0.0639
LGBJFK 2465 B6 048097 250.51 249.48 298.27 97.88% 150.1 90.49% 225.76 0.0916
LGBBOS 2602 B6 029745 221.32 219.46 283.33 97.09% 150.0 87.74% 192.56 0.0740
FLL is obviously cut. JFK is about what you would expect. BOS did a little worse due to that second flight added in September. They have since shifted it back to SEA.

Given this, I think SJC is a real problem and OAK is a problem too, but other routes are not performing that bad. Some are even quite profitable. I can't see them for example doing better to SEA/PDX/SLC out of LAX.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 20

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:10 am

tphuang wrote:
Alright, BOS numbers (not including the ones I already posted). As usual, these are based on a script that I have that parsed through LF and fare numbers. They don't account for connection traffic. It's not meant to be conclusive, but rather guidance of how the markets are doing. In this case, I also took out ULCCs.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 023228 218.26 217.57 310.76 99.25% 147.9 84.91% 184.74 0.1088 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 024497 214.00 203.80 269.17 84.40% 155.9 85.41% 174.07 0.1025 94.23%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 026277 208.68 205.59 229.99 87.33% 161.7 89.76% 184.54 0.1087 99.89%
definitely a weaker quarter for B6 in this market compared to Q2, when they were dominated. But still a relatively high yielding market out of BOS. Encouraging to see that they have added a flight here. Probably siphoning a lot of traffic from BOS-SAT. Don't think that will be added for a while

BOSBWI 0369 B6 067969 145.63 145.65 069.39 99.98% 100.2 76.98% 112.11 0.3038 100.00%
BOSBWI 0369 WN 194578 134.18 134.18 000.00 100.00% 150.3 80.94% 108.61 0.2943 96.87%
Pretty similar to Q2. They seemed to have cut a flight for most of Q3. Don't think they are making any money here.

BOSCLT 0728 AA 233075 192.76 191.78 254.33 98.43% 171.6 85.11% 163.23 0.2242 111.61%
BOSCLT 0728 B6 029527 179.91 179.80 291.71 99.90% 100.3 81.34% 146.25 0.2009 100.00%
Again similar to Q2, performing slightly worse. Yields are quite healthy

BOSDEN 1754 B6 048155 250.00 250.11 225.84 99.53% 150.0 89.67% 224.29 0.1279 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 150843 283.95 285.12 263.16 94.68% 174.3 94.69% 269.99 0.1539 120.38%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 072320 240.25 240.51 237.40 91.71% 163.2 91.74% 220.65 0.1258 98.38%
A much better quarter for B6 compared to Q2 in terms of yield and some improvement vs WN/UA also. I think an additional flight can be added here to be more competitive

BOSDFW 1562 AA 187276 261.35 257.41 332.72 94.77% 168.4 90.79% 233.71 0.1496 151.56%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 045351 172.69 172.69 000.00 100.00% 151.6 89.29% 154.20 0.0987 100.00%
Similar to Q2, not much changes in the dynamics here. Yield on a route like this is always going to struggle. Not to beat on a dead horse, but having 2 flights to JFK out of DFW would actually make B6 a more attractive option on this route.

BOSDTW 0632 B6 054263 161.11 161.11 000.00 100.00% 117.6 84.97% 136.90 0.2166 100.00%
BOSDTW 0632 DL 184816 200.13 198.74 248.55 97.22% 156.4 89.44% 177.75 0.2813 129.84%
Similar to Q2, although it seems like they are subbing in more A320s here now. Yield is still quite healthy. Makes sense they are adding a 4th flight on peak days.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 023090 160.67 160.67 000.00 100.00% 147.8 85.36% 137.15 0.0852 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 037113 193.72 191.87 202.66 82.90% 158.6 91.39% 175.36 0.1090 127.86%
Another huge bloodbath with WN. Things don't look to be getting any better here.

BOSBNA 0942 B6 048848 156.18 156.19 099.00 99.98% 149.1 87.62% 136.86 0.1453 100.00%
BOSBNA 0942 DL 028949 169.41 167.71 183.14 88.98% 072.6 90.41% 151.62 0.1610 110.79%
BOSBNA 0942 WN 069868 158.79 157.17 183.89 93.96% 156.2 88.59% 139.23 0.1478 101.73%
As I said before, probably the best performing routes DL added out of BNA. Again, they are running all regional here with a lot of 70 seaters against A320/B737 of B6/WN, so not surprising they yield a little higher. On the whole, all the new capacity added here for 2019 triggered by DL's decision to go to 4 daily will probably cause the yields to crash.

BOSEWR 0200 B6 057688 160.23 160.23 000.00 100.00% 100.4 64.06% 102.65 0.5132 100.00%
BOSEWR 0200 UA 214194 211.00 211.00 000.00 100.00% 148.0 80.70% 170.27 0.8514 165.88%
Not much change here. They did slightly worse than Q2

BOSPHL 0280 AA 257262 171.47 171.26 286.29 99.82% 159.9 81.60% 139.75 0.4991 106.37%
BOSPHL 0280 B6 076811 163.87 163.87 000.00 100.00% 100.2 80.18% 131.39 0.4692 100.00%
Very similar dynamics, they did slightly better than Q2. Would be interesting to see the numbers in Q4 since that's when DL entered the market.

BOSRDU 0612 B6 077497 178.80 178.79 251.90 99.98% 100.6 82.88% 148.19 0.2421 100.00%
BOSRDU 0612 DL 069920 188.83 188.55 226.36 99.24% 087.6 80.70% 152.15 0.2486 102.67%
Very similar numbers to Q2. Very healthy yields, which is probably why B6 is adding more flight here.

BOSRIC 0474 B6 059422 151.07 151.07 000.00 100.00% 100.7 81.60% 123.27 0.2601 100.00%
BOSRIC 0474 DL 026146 143.79 143.54 288.29 99.83% 070.3 77.69% 111.51 0.2352 90.46%
Similar yields to Q2, but they actually improved quite a bit vs DL this quarter. Not a candidate for more flights.

BOSIAD 0413 B6 044319 156.48 156.45 182.01 99.88% 100.5 83.23% 130.21 0.3153 100.00%
BOSIAD 0413 UA 097678 177.77 177.77 186.00 99.97% 161.2 85.69% 152.33 0.3688 116.99%
sadly, this is about to go and the numbers are okay even to the end.

Now, here is what I wanted to point out about the prospect of DL adding ROC and SYR. Here are CLE/BUF/PIT
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSCLE 0563 B6 047629 163.47 163.47 000.00 100.00% 100.4 87.55% 143.12 0.2542 100.00%
BOSCLE 0563 UA 024277 201.08 198.62 230.08 92.18% 051.0 93.05% 184.82 0.3283 129.13%
BOSBUF 0395 B6 069356 145.59 145.53 167.92 99.73% 101.1 80.74% 117.51 0.2975 100.00%
BOSBUF 0395 DL 021746 124.28 121.29 233.14 97.32% 070.1 75.87% 92.01 0.2329 78.31%
BOSPIT 0496 AA 016154 161.71 151.85 226.23 86.75% 044.0 79.12% 120.15 0.2422 102.03%
BOSPIT 0496 B6 077640 157.29 157.29 000.00 100.00% 100.3 74.87% 117.76 0.2374 100.00%
BOSPIT 0496 DL 026732 127.91 124.55 162.07 91.07% 076.0 76.12% 94.81 0.1912 80.51%
Notice UA's yield on BOS-CLE and how that's twice the yield of DL on BOS-BUF/PIT. And this is a route UA gave up on recently. So they can't be making that much money on it. Now the 50 seaters they were running on it are probably really high cost, but 70 seaters on BOS-BUF and 76 seaters on BOS-PIT aren't that much lower cost given they both have FC. That should give an indication of how badly these 2 routes are for DL after a year of operation. SYR/ROC are likely to have numbers like BUF.

Now for Florida stuff
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSRSW 1249 B6 065356 179.20 179.21 173.33 99.79% 147.2 82.55% 147.94 0.1184 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 B6 045218 158.39 157.44 233.38 98.75% 100.0 83.74% 131.84 0.1305 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 017547 167.97 161.07 233.72 90.50% 073.6 77.68% 125.11 0.1239 94.90%
BOSMCO 1121 B6 156955 172.89 172.67 207.38 99.37% 184.2 81.21% 140.22 0.1251 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 064844 171.91 169.66 213.78 94.90% 158.6 83.11% 141.00 0.1258 100.55%
BOSFLL 1237 B6 086263 181.36 180.77 213.27 98.17% 150.2 88.62% 160.19 0.1295 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 023876 152.63 146.70 194.65 87.62% 158.9 81.66% 119.79 0.0968 74.78%
BOSTPA 1185 B6 096518 159.64 159.58 180.66 99.68% 150.3 87.72% 139.99 0.1181 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 039996 162.59 159.54 229.65 95.65% 155.7 76.23% 121.62 0.1026 86.88%
Again, no sign of improvement for DL here either. All the yields drop in Q3 compared to Q2, which is not a surprise given this is Florida we are talking about, so I focus more on relative numbers. They caught up to B6 in yield on MCO , but dropped significantly on BOS-FLL. DL's TPA numbers are the worst i have seen in recent quarters and JAX is about flat.


Thanks again. Any chance you can post BOS-LAS too? I don’t think it’s with the other Mint stuff upthread. Will be interesting to see if it has shown improvement like SEA.

What immediately sticks out to me is how B6 manages to get a premium against WN to AUS/BWI/DEN, and continues to command the highest yield to LAX. They even come close to AA @ PHL, and I suspect the same is true for DCA.

Even so, yields to a lot of markets that DL have entered have certainly tanked. But I think B6 is still making good money at BOS (just not as much). It’s encouraging to see the additional capacity to DCA, BNA, RDU, DTW, CHS, SAV and CLE. And that’s all in addition to the new flights that recently took into effect after the network realignment (which mostly benefited BOS). I wonder if B6 will ever issue a PR on these extra flights or will just quietly add...

The IAD closure remains a mystery to me. Those yields don’t look bad, and the region is growing quickly with lots of tech companies moving into the area. Perhaps an opportunity for DL?

It still bewilders to me why HOU is such a dog. One would think B6 can support more than one A320 to an airport serving America’s 5th largest metro area. DFW at 2x is not much better. I wonder if DL will even bother.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2712
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:22 am

tphuang wrote:
Alright, BOS numbers (not including the ones I already posted). As usual, these are based on a script that I have that parsed through LF and fare numbers. They don't account for connection traffic. It's not meant to be conclusive, but rather guidance of how the markets are doing. In this case, I also took out ULCCs.

BOSBWI 0369 B6 067969 145.63 145.65 069.39 99.98% 100.2 76.98% 112.11 0.3038 100.00%
BOSBWI 0369 WN 194578 134.18 134.18 000.00 100.00% 150.3 80.94% 108.61 0.2943 96.87%
Pretty similar to Q2. They seemed to have cut a flight for most of Q3. Don't think they are making any money here.

BOSDFW 1562 AA 187276 261.35 257.41 332.72 94.77% 168.4 90.79% 233.71 0.1496 151.56%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 045351 172.69 172.69 000.00 100.00% 151.6 89.29% 154.20 0.0987 100.00%
Similar to Q2, not much changes in the dynamics here. Yield on a route like this is always going to struggle. Not to beat on a dead horse, but having 2 flights to JFK out of DFW would actually make B6 a more attractive option on this route.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 023090 160.67 160.67 000.00 100.00% 147.8 85.36% 137.15 0.0852 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 037113 193.72 191.87 202.66 82.90% 158.6 91.39% 175.36 0.1090 127.86%
Another huge bloodbath with WN. Things don't look to be getting any better here.

BOSIAD 0413 B6 044319 156.48 156.45 182.01 99.88% 100.5 83.23% 130.21 0.3153 100.00%
BOSIAD 0413 UA 097678 177.77 177.77 186.00 99.97% 161.2 85.69% 152.33 0.3688 116.99%
sadly, this is about to go and the numbers are okay even to the end.


Could you please post the numbers for BOS-DAL, BOS-IAH, and BOS-DCA? WN operates DAL-BOS nonstop service that is in competition with B6 and AA DFW-BOS nonstop service, UA operates IAH-BOS nonstop service that is in competition with B6 and WN HOU-BOS nonstop service, and B6 serves BOS nonstop from DCA in addition to BWI in the Baltimore/DC market.
 
Runway28L
Posts: 1785
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 20

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:16 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Alright, BOS numbers (not including the ones I already posted). As usual, these are based on a script that I have that parsed through LF and fare numbers. They don't account for connection traffic. It's not meant to be conclusive, but rather guidance of how the markets are doing. In this case, I also took out ULCCs.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 023228 218.26 217.57 310.76 99.25% 147.9 84.91% 184.74 0.1088 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 024497 214.00 203.80 269.17 84.40% 155.9 85.41% 174.07 0.1025 94.23%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 026277 208.68 205.59 229.99 87.33% 161.7 89.76% 184.54 0.1087 99.89%
definitely a weaker quarter for B6 in this market compared to Q2, when they were dominated. But still a relatively high yielding market out of BOS. Encouraging to see that they have added a flight here. Probably siphoning a lot of traffic from BOS-SAT. Don't think that will be added for a while

BOSBWI 0369 B6 067969 145.63 145.65 069.39 99.98% 100.2 76.98% 112.11 0.3038 100.00%
BOSBWI 0369 WN 194578 134.18 134.18 000.00 100.00% 150.3 80.94% 108.61 0.2943 96.87%
Pretty similar to Q2. They seemed to have cut a flight for most of Q3. Don't think they are making any money here.

BOSCLT 0728 AA 233075 192.76 191.78 254.33 98.43% 171.6 85.11% 163.23 0.2242 111.61%
BOSCLT 0728 B6 029527 179.91 179.80 291.71 99.90% 100.3 81.34% 146.25 0.2009 100.00%
Again similar to Q2, performing slightly worse. Yields are quite healthy

BOSDEN 1754 B6 048155 250.00 250.11 225.84 99.53% 150.0 89.67% 224.29 0.1279 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 150843 283.95 285.12 263.16 94.68% 174.3 94.69% 269.99 0.1539 120.38%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 072320 240.25 240.51 237.40 91.71% 163.2 91.74% 220.65 0.1258 98.38%
A much better quarter for B6 compared to Q2 in terms of yield and some improvement vs WN/UA also. I think an additional flight can be added here to be more competitive

BOSDFW 1562 AA 187276 261.35 257.41 332.72 94.77% 168.4 90.79% 233.71 0.1496 151.56%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 045351 172.69 172.69 000.00 100.00% 151.6 89.29% 154.20 0.0987 100.00%
Similar to Q2, not much changes in the dynamics here. Yield on a route like this is always going to struggle. Not to beat on a dead horse, but having 2 flights to JFK out of DFW would actually make B6 a more attractive option on this route.

BOSDTW 0632 B6 054263 161.11 161.11 000.00 100.00% 117.6 84.97% 136.90 0.2166 100.00%
BOSDTW 0632 DL 184816 200.13 198.74 248.55 97.22% 156.4 89.44% 177.75 0.2813 129.84%
Similar to Q2, although it seems like they are subbing in more A320s here now. Yield is still quite healthy. Makes sense they are adding a 4th flight on peak days.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 023090 160.67 160.67 000.00 100.00% 147.8 85.36% 137.15 0.0852 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 037113 193.72 191.87 202.66 82.90% 158.6 91.39% 175.36 0.1090 127.86%
Another huge bloodbath with WN. Things don't look to be getting any better here.

BOSBNA 0942 B6 048848 156.18 156.19 099.00 99.98% 149.1 87.62% 136.86 0.1453 100.00%
BOSBNA 0942 DL 028949 169.41 167.71 183.14 88.98% 072.6 90.41% 151.62 0.1610 110.79%
BOSBNA 0942 WN 069868 158.79 157.17 183.89 93.96% 156.2 88.59% 139.23 0.1478 101.73%
As I said before, probably the best performing routes DL added out of BNA. Again, they are running all regional here with a lot of 70 seaters against A320/B737 of B6/WN, so not surprising they yield a little higher. On the whole, all the new capacity added here for 2019 triggered by DL's decision to go to 4 daily will probably cause the yields to crash.

BOSEWR 0200 B6 057688 160.23 160.23 000.00 100.00% 100.4 64.06% 102.65 0.5132 100.00%
BOSEWR 0200 UA 214194 211.00 211.00 000.00 100.00% 148.0 80.70% 170.27 0.8514 165.88%
Not much change here. They did slightly worse than Q2

BOSPHL 0280 AA 257262 171.47 171.26 286.29 99.82% 159.9 81.60% 139.75 0.4991 106.37%
BOSPHL 0280 B6 076811 163.87 163.87 000.00 100.00% 100.2 80.18% 131.39 0.4692 100.00%
Very similar dynamics, they did slightly better than Q2. Would be interesting to see the numbers in Q4 since that's when DL entered the market.

BOSRDU 0612 B6 077497 178.80 178.79 251.90 99.98% 100.6 82.88% 148.19 0.2421 100.00%
BOSRDU 0612 DL 069920 188.83 188.55 226.36 99.24% 087.6 80.70% 152.15 0.2486 102.67%
Very similar numbers to Q2. Very healthy yields, which is probably why B6 is adding more flight here.

BOSRIC 0474 B6 059422 151.07 151.07 000.00 100.00% 100.7 81.60% 123.27 0.2601 100.00%
BOSRIC 0474 DL 026146 143.79 143.54 288.29 99.83% 070.3 77.69% 111.51 0.2352 90.46%
Similar yields to Q2, but they actually improved quite a bit vs DL this quarter. Not a candidate for more flights.

BOSIAD 0413 B6 044319 156.48 156.45 182.01 99.88% 100.5 83.23% 130.21 0.3153 100.00%
BOSIAD 0413 UA 097678 177.77 177.77 186.00 99.97% 161.2 85.69% 152.33 0.3688 116.99%
sadly, this is about to go and the numbers are okay even to the end.

Now, here is what I wanted to point out about the prospect of DL adding ROC and SYR. Here are CLE/BUF/PIT
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSCLE 0563 B6 047629 163.47 163.47 000.00 100.00% 100.4 87.55% 143.12 0.2542 100.00%
BOSCLE 0563 UA 024277 201.08 198.62 230.08 92.18% 051.0 93.05% 184.82 0.3283 129.13%
BOSBUF 0395 B6 069356 145.59 145.53 167.92 99.73% 101.1 80.74% 117.51 0.2975 100.00%
BOSBUF 0395 DL 021746 124.28 121.29 233.14 97.32% 070.1 75.87% 92.01 0.2329 78.31%
BOSPIT 0496 AA 016154 161.71 151.85 226.23 86.75% 044.0 79.12% 120.15 0.2422 102.03%
BOSPIT 0496 B6 077640 157.29 157.29 000.00 100.00% 100.3 74.87% 117.76 0.2374 100.00%
BOSPIT 0496 DL 026732 127.91 124.55 162.07 91.07% 076.0 76.12% 94.81 0.1912 80.51%
Notice UA's yield on BOS-CLE and how that's twice the yield of DL on BOS-BUF/PIT. And this is a route UA gave up on recently. So they can't be making that much money on it. Now the 50 seaters they were running on it are probably really high cost, but 70 seaters on BOS-BUF and 76 seaters on BOS-PIT aren't that much lower cost given they both have FC. That should give an indication of how badly these 2 routes are for DL after a year of operation. SYR/ROC are likely to have numbers like BUF.

Now for Florida stuff
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSRSW 1249 B6 065356 179.20 179.21 173.33 99.79% 147.2 82.55% 147.94 0.1184 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 B6 045218 158.39 157.44 233.38 98.75% 100.0 83.74% 131.84 0.1305 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 017547 167.97 161.07 233.72 90.50% 073.6 77.68% 125.11 0.1239 94.90%
BOSMCO 1121 B6 156955 172.89 172.67 207.38 99.37% 184.2 81.21% 140.22 0.1251 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 064844 171.91 169.66 213.78 94.90% 158.6 83.11% 141.00 0.1258 100.55%
BOSFLL 1237 B6 086263 181.36 180.77 213.27 98.17% 150.2 88.62% 160.19 0.1295 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 023876 152.63 146.70 194.65 87.62% 158.9 81.66% 119.79 0.0968 74.78%
BOSTPA 1185 B6 096518 159.64 159.58 180.66 99.68% 150.3 87.72% 139.99 0.1181 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 039996 162.59 159.54 229.65 95.65% 155.7 76.23% 121.62 0.1026 86.88%
Again, no sign of improvement for DL here either. All the yields drop in Q3 compared to Q2, which is not a surprise given this is Florida we are talking about, so I focus more on relative numbers. They caught up to B6 in yield on MCO , but dropped significantly on BOS-FLL. DL's TPA numbers are the worst i have seen in recent quarters and JAX is about flat.


Thanks again. Any chance you can post BOS-LAS too? I don’t think it’s with the other Mint stuff upthread. Will be interesting to see if it has shown improvement like SEA.

What immediately sticks out to me is how B6 manages to get a premium against WN to AUS/BWI/DEN, and continues to command the highest yield to LAX. They even come close to AA @ PHL, and I suspect the same is true for DCA.

Even so, yields to a lot of markets that DL have entered have certainly tanked. But I think B6 is still making good money at BOS (just not as much). It’s encouraging to see the additional capacity to DCA, BNA, RDU, DTW, CHS, SAV and CLE. And that’s all in addition to the new flights that recently took into effect after the network realignment (which mostly benefited BOS). I wonder if B6 will ever issue a PR on these extra flights or will just quietly add...

The IAD closure remains a mystery to me. Those yields don’t look bad, and the region is growing quickly with lots of tech companies moving into the area. Perhaps an opportunity for DL?

It still bewilders to me why HOU is such a dog. One would think B6 can support more than one A320 to an airport serving America’s 5th largest metro area. DFW at 2x is not much better. I wonder if DL will even bother.


I've always wondered how a move from HOU to IAH would do for B6.

Has B6 always served Houston through Hobby?
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 20

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:12 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks again. Any chance you can post BOS-LAS too? I don’t think it’s with the other Mint stuff upthread. Will be interesting to see if it has shown improvement like SEA.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLAS 2381 B6 77845 281.20 281.01 323.46 99.53% 155.5 83.03% 233.32 0.0980 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 NK 28481 096.70 096.16 122.73 97.95% 180.0 89.39% 085.96 0.0361 36.84%
BOSDCA 399 AA 220193 162.21 162.06 291.18 99.88% 114.7 83.76% 135.74 0.3402 108.15%
BOSDCA 399 B6 140458 154.02 153.96 304.86 99.96% 101.6 81.52% 125.51 0.3146 100.00%
BOSDCA 399 YX 3577 183.15 179.71 378.09 98.27% 075.9 85.72% 154.05 0.3861 122.74%

Sure, I forgot to post BOS-DCA also. Here it is. A little weaker performance than Q2 there. BOS-LAS looks good. Not the best quarter, but not bad either.

What immediately sticks out to me is how B6 manages to get a premium against WN to AUS/BWI/DEN, and continues to command the highest yield to LAX. They even come close to AA @ PHL, and I suspect the same is true for DCA.

Even so, yields to a lot of markets that DL have entered have certainly tanked. But I think B6 is still making good money at BOS (just not as much). It’s encouraging to see the additional capacity to DCA, BNA, RDU, DTW, CHS, SAV and CLE. And that’s all in addition to the new flights that recently took into effect after the network realignment (which mostly benefited BOS). I wonder if B6 will ever issue a PR on these extra flights or will just quietly add...

The IAD closure remains a mystery to me. Those yields don’t look bad, and the region is growing quickly with lots of tech companies moving into the area. Perhaps an opportunity for DL?

I think IAD closure is all about JFK. The yields on JFK-IAD isn't great and has a lot of connection. More importantly, it's not a great usage of slots. I think they want to move away from E90 out of JFK unless it's really high yielding like ACK/MVY.
Maybe they will make an announcement about BOS the next time they add a new city?

Runway28L wrote:
It still bewilders to me why HOU is such a dog. One would think B6 can support more than one A320 to an airport serving America’s 5th largest metro area. DFW at 2x is not much better. I wonder if DL will even bother.

I've always wondered how a move from HOU to IAH would do for B6.

Has B6 always served Houston through Hobby?

I believe it's always been through hobby. I will show you the JFK numbers with some comparison points and you will see why
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
JFKHOU 1428 B6 23994 221.21 221.16 251.52 99.84% 147.8 89.70% 198.38 0.1389
LGAIAH 1416 UA 163895 294.11 292.66 481.05 99.23% 141.3 87.06% 254.80 0.1799
LGAIAH 1416 YV 3087 289.87 290.77 201.29 98.99% 076.0 96.71% 281.21 0.1986
LGAIAH 1416 YX 42129 269.92 270.41 239.74 98.38% 074.3 75.28% 203.58 0.1438
LGAHOU 1428 WN 65315 211.10 210.48 215.96 88.75% 153.8 89.59% 188.58 0.1321
JFKSAT 1587 DL 21563 243.99 235.39 353.88 92.74% 132.8 89.72% 211.19 0.1331
JFKAUS 1521 AA 30021 219.43 216.37 276.92 94.95% 160.0 71.87% 155.50 0.1022
JFKAUS 1521 B6 44246 197.22 196.15 523.98 99.67% 150.0 83.80% 164.37 0.1081
JFKAUS 1521 DL 64946 225.33 223.48 346.42 98.50% 156.9 86.93% 194.28 0.1277
BOSAUS 1698 B6 23228 218.26 217.57 310.76 99.25% 147.9 84.91% 184.74 0.1088
BOSAUS 1698 DL 24497 213.41 203.39 269.46 84.84% 155.9 85.41% 173.73 0.1023
BOSAUS 1698 WN 26277 208.68 205.59 229.99 87.33% 161.7 89.76% 184.54 0.1087
So they basically perform better on JFK-HOU than any carrier on JFK/BOS-AUS. And even looking at HOU, they only are weaker than UA, getting same yield as DL regional and outperforming WN who are all operating out of LGA. I think it has something to do with owning a monopoly on JFK-HOU. It's their most profitable route to Texas.

Also putting BOS-IAH/DAL here due to jplatts request.
BOSIAH 1597 UA 134219 260.37 258.58 362.18 98.28% 171.4 88.39% 228.57 0.1431
BOSDAL 1554 WN 28002 193.89 191.60 201.65 77.27% 165.0 94.26% 180.60 0.1162
I do wonder if they'd do better to Dallas if they can get half a gate out of DAL (when AS gives up there eventually).
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 20

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSLAS 2381 B6 77845 281.20 281.01 323.46 99.53% 155.5 83.03% 233.32 0.0980 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 NK 28481 096.70 096.16 122.73 97.95% 180.0 89.39% 085.96 0.0361 36.84%
BOSDCA 399 AA 220193 162.21 162.06 291.18 99.88% 114.7 83.76% 135.74 0.3402 108.15%
BOSDCA 399 B6 140458 154.02 153.96 304.86 99.96% 101.6 81.52% 125.51 0.3146 100.00%
BOSDCA 399 YX 3577 183.15 179.71 378.09 98.27% 075.9 85.72% 154.05 0.3861 122.74%

Sure, I forgot to post BOS-DCA also. Here it is. A little weaker performance than Q2 there. BOS-LAS looks good. Not the best quarter, but not bad either.


Thanks. BOS-LAS looks great when considering that only 2 of the 3/4 frequencies are Mint. This is even more impressive when considering that one of the westbound flights was timed pretty poorly (I believe it arrived in LAS past midnight), which is a relatively cheap flight for B6 to run from a utilization perspective.

I'm intrigued to see how much those BOSDCA numbers change once DL enters the market with a bunch of additional capacity. B6 is making money on these yields, but I'm sure they are bracing for those margins to consolidate.

I think IAD closure is all about JFK. The yields on JFK-IAD isn't great and has a lot of connection. More importantly, it's not a great usage of slots. I think they want to move away from E90 out of JFK unless it's really high yielding like ACK/MVY.
Maybe they will make an announcement about BOS the next time they add a new city?


I think that's right, and the closure of DAB and seasonality of PWM I think further solidifies that argument.

Runway28L wrote:
It still bewilders to me why HOU is such a dog. One would think B6 can support more than one A320 to an airport serving America’s 5th largest metro area. DFW at 2x is not much better. I wonder if DL will even bother.

I've always wondered how a move from HOU to IAH would do for B6.

Has B6 always served Houston through Hobby?

I believe it's always been through hobby. I will show you the JFK numbers with some comparison points and you will see why
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
JFKHOU 1428 B6 23994 221.21 221.16 251.52 99.84% 147.8 89.70% 198.38 0.1389
LGAIAH 1416 UA 163895 294.11 292.66 481.05 99.23% 141.3 87.06% 254.80 0.1799
LGAIAH 1416 YV 3087 289.87 290.77 201.29 98.99% 076.0 96.71% 281.21 0.1986
LGAIAH 1416 YX 42129 269.92 270.41 239.74 98.38% 074.3 75.28% 203.58 0.1438
LGAHOU 1428 WN 65315 211.10 210.48 215.96 88.75% 153.8 89.59% 188.58 0.1321
JFKSAT 1587 DL 21563 243.99 235.39 353.88 92.74% 132.8 89.72% 211.19 0.1331
JFKAUS 1521 AA 30021 219.43 216.37 276.92 94.95% 160.0 71.87% 155.50 0.1022
JFKAUS 1521 B6 44246 197.22 196.15 523.98 99.67% 150.0 83.80% 164.37 0.1081
JFKAUS 1521 DL 64946 225.33 223.48 346.42 98.50% 156.9 86.93% 194.28 0.1277
BOSAUS 1698 B6 23228 218.26 217.57 310.76 99.25% 147.9 84.91% 184.74 0.1088
BOSAUS 1698 DL 24497 213.41 203.39 269.46 84.84% 155.9 85.41% 173.73 0.1023
BOSAUS 1698 WN 26277 208.68 205.59 229.99 87.33% 161.7 89.76% 184.54 0.1087
So they basically perform better on JFK-HOU than any carrier on JFK/BOS-AUS. And even looking at HOU, they only are weaker than UA, getting same yield as DL regional and outperforming WN who are all operating out of LGA. I think it has something to do with owning a monopoly on JFK-HOU. It's their most profitable route to Texas.

Also putting BOS-IAH/DAL here due to jplatts request.
BOSIAH 1597 UA 134219 260.37 258.58 362.18 98.28% 171.4 88.39% 228.57 0.1431
BOSDAL 1554 WN 28002 193.89 191.60 201.65 77.27% 165.0 94.26% 180.60 0.1162
I do wonder if they'd do better to Dallas if they can get half a gate out of DAL (when AS gives up there eventually).


It's pretty amazing how well B6 does from JFK to HOU. As you point out they beat WN over at LGA, and even outperforms AUS (which more fits the mold of B6's model for JFK - i.e. markets with high leisure demand). It's just even more amazing when considering how terribly they do from BOS, where B6 is even more dominant and the competition is in theory less fierce.
 
LightChop2Chop
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:33 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:14 pm

didn't JFK HOU use to be an E-jet? when I flew it, it was. now its a 320 which shows some progress.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:25 pm

Alright, FLL numbers. This concentrate on the markets where B6 and WN completes. I'm basing most comments based on the yield data I've tracked out of FLL since Q1 of 2017. Again, more focused on relative strength of the market since yields do drop a little in Q3 at FLL vs Q2.

I think you will find that in Q3 B6 continued to consolidate its strength in Northeast markets that had shifted its way in Q2. On the other hand, it continues to weaken in some heavy WN market..

First I will post a few Northeast markets where WN cut this summer
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLALB 1204 B6 023880 173.62 173.43 549.00 99.95% 150.0 86.52% 150.06 0.1246 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 010586 165.51 162.04 182.67 83.19% 156.8 91.21% 147.80 0.1228 98.49%
This is the first quarter B6 has generated higher yields than WN on this route. Pretty good numbers
FLLBUF 1166 B6 023880 149.38 148.79 202.86 98.89% 150.0 87.47% 130.15 0.1116 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 026358 142.11 136.70 165.83 81.41% 154.7 90.16% 123.24 0.1057 94.70%
Improved again over WN in Q3. Best numbers yet against WN on this route.
FLLBDL 1173 B6 045087 161.54 161.22 236.66 99.57% 150.0 83.73% 134.98 0.1151 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 028880 49.25 49.26 48.13 99.31% 180.0 88.64% 43.66 0.0372 32.35%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 023937 150.59 145.54 178.76 84.81% 169.3 80.78% 117.57 0.1002 87.10%
Basically unchanged from Q2 (which was the best number up to that point against WN), overall yield dropped a little.
FLLPHL 0992 AA 092095 163.87 163.53 169.31 94.12% 157.4 92.45% 151.19 0.1524 132.73%
FLLPHL 0992 B6 030838 130.52 130.21 169.26 99.21% 150.0 87.48% 113.91 0.1148 100.00%
FLLPHL 0992 NK 023323 57.82 57.56 90.43 99.19% 146.0 92.86% 53.45 0.0539 46.92%
FLLPHL 0992 WN 026909 134.67 130.92 148.57 78.73% 157.0 93.66% 122.62 0.1236 107.65%
This one is a little harder to judge, since both B6/WN are dominated by AA here. The numbers have been pretty consistent here in the past year.
FLLPVD 1188 B6 023889 170.42 170.42 00.00 100.00% 150.0 87.03% 148.31 0.1248 100.00%
FLLPVD 1188 WN 025725 156.43 150.50 184.54 82.57% 160.9 86.89% 130.76 0.1101 88.17%
A little bit of retreat from Q2, but still very good quarter here.
So based on all of this, I'm not surprised WN has cut back on these routes, since B6 is increasing controlling pricing on these markets.

Next is New York and DC
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLDCA 0899 B6 079465 164.34 164.20 240.28 99.82% 100.6 87.47% 143.63 0.1598 100.00%
FLLDCA 0899 WN 047194 133.74 132.03 156.68 93.06% 154.4 85.63% 113.05 0.1258 78.71%
FLLHPN 1097 B6 038119 174.17 174.17 00.00 100.00% 125.3 83.32% 145.12 0.1323 100.00%
FLLORH 1211 B6 014225 146.35 146.18 244.10 99.83% 100.6 80.37% 117.48 0.0970 100.00%
FLLJFK 1069 B6 183762 164.68 163.45 482.52 99.61% 191.1 88.45% 144.57 0.1352 100.00%
FLLJFK 1069 DL 084237 167.06 166.33 274.06 99.32% 141.1 87.18% 145.00 0.1356 100.30%
FLLLGA 1076 B6 107309 166.59 166.53 226.37 99.90% 140.4 86.98% 144.84 0.1346 100.00%
FLLLGA 1076 DL 101430 174.54 173.17 299.04 98.92% 141.8 85.64% 148.31 0.1378 102.39%
FLLLGA 1076 NK 142672 73.91 73.83 89.55 99.53% 227.5 88.22% 65.13 0.0605 44.97%
FLLLGA 1076 WN 006451 144.20 129.95 180.59 71.86% 154.9 81.65% 106.10 0.0986 73.25%
FLLEWR 1065 B6 077852 162.74 162.43 328.54 99.82% 150.2 89.38% 145.18 0.1363 100.00%
FLLEWR 1065 NK 098390 74.46 74.23 104.31 99.24% 227.6 86.98% 64.56 0.0606 44.47%
FLLEWR 1065 UA 154157 169.12 168.46 293.44 99.48% 169.7 92.03% 155.04 0.1456 106.79%
FLLEWR 1065 WN 047408 121.34 120.60 152.47 97.68% 157.3 89.17% 107.54 0.1010 74.07%
Most of this is pretty standard. B6 weakened a little bit on DCA vs Q2. And out of EWR, they stayed at same yield whereas competitors improved a little. I wonder if they need to try maintain more flights here in summer time. HPN dropped a little bit in Q3. DL's yield crept back to same as B6 at JFK/LGA for this quarter, since they were using much lower gauged aircraft in Q3 vs Q2.

Other stations, including some strong WN stations.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLAUS 1105 B6 022738 148.80 148.80 00.00 100.00% 147.9 83.58% 124.37 0.1126 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 038672 179.41 177.45 194.90 88.77% 151.8 88.76% 157.50 0.1425 126.64%
They are performing progressively worse on this route. Q3 numbers are not good
FLLBWI 0925 B6 024105 132.86 132.70 160.48 99.40% 150.0 69.27% 91.91 0.0994 100.00%
FLLBWI 0925 NK 088050 66.66 66.59 70.11 98.00% 184.2 89.03% 59.29 0.0641 64.51%
FLLBWI 0925 WN 193290 150.18 149.90 156.11 95.50% 157.9 83.88% 125.74 0.1359 136.80%
Seeing this, not a surprise they cut BWI. While they have always struggled a little at BWI, this was definitely their worst recently. Hurt by the the NK/WN combo in a station where both NK/WN are stronger
FLLCHS 0470 B6 013114 126.34 125.95 280.00 99.74% 100.0 76.69% 96.59 0.2055 100.00%
Not a great demand quarter. Probably loosing money here.
FLLCLE 1062 B6 023642 129.09 128.78 312.21 99.83% 150.0 85.66% 110.31 0.1039 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 024092 62.26 61.96 73.47 97.40% 154.0 90.98% 56.37 0.0531 51.10%
not a great quarter here either. Relative performance to NK is the same as Q2. Just not a lot of demand here in Q3.
FLLDTW 1127 B6 020796 122.98 122.47 209.27 99.41% 150.0 75.76% 92.78 0.0823 100.00%
FLLDTW 1127 DL 109804 158.28 155.65 238.53 96.82% 193.9 82.32% 128.13 0.1137 138.09%
FLLDTW 1127 NK 070153 53.38 52.97 70.36 97.62% 227.0 83.30% 44.12 0.0392 47.56%
See BWI, another case where they are hammered by strong big 4 presence on top and NK from bottom.
FLLJAX 0319 B6 041208 111.55 111.55 00.00 100.00% 100.6 75.47% 84.19 0.2639 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 042016 101.66 101.61 170.00 99.94% 143.9 53.29% 54.15 0.1697 64.32%
First full quarter with WN. really bad numbers for WN and B6 probably isn't making money here anymore.
FLLLAS 2173 B6 023280 194.25 193.63 302.63 99.43% 150.0 84.81% 164.21 0.0756 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 033363 92.91 92.22 131.93 98.26% 174.2 87.43% 80.63 0.0371 49.10%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 022554 199.24 197.22 209.90 84.06% 169.5 88.13% 173.80 0.0800 105.84%
Same yield as Q2, but actually did better against WN this quarter. Not bad numbers.
FLLBNA 0793 B6 023115 131.43 131.43 00.00 100.00% 150.0 83.30% 109.48 0.1381 100.00%
FLLBNA 0793 WN 076227 151.63 150.95 161.32 93.47% 151.6 84.94% 128.22 0.1617 117.12%
Surprisingly their best quarter so far vs WN. Maybe they are getting some traction here. They even added a second flight on some days for later this year.
FLLMSY 0674 B6 019776 103.26 103.26 00.00 100.00% 150.0 72.84% 75.21 0.1116 100.00%
FLLMSY 0674 NK 051290 50.26 49.86 65.27 97.40% 175.6 79.36% 39.57 0.0587 52.61%
FLLMSY 0674 WN 033878 149.74 146.97 164.69 84.34% 146.7 86.48% 127.10 0.1886 168.99%
This is the worst number they've had on this route. Again, WN and NK strength at MSY really kills them here.
FLLPIT 0994 B6 022317 122.19 121.30 360.21 99.63% 150.0 80.86% 98.08 0.0987 100.00%
FLLPIT 0994 NK 022408 48.69 48.71 46.79 99.36% 147.5 82.58% 40.22 0.0405 41.01%
FLLPIT 0994 WN 032005 134.91 132.27 148.62 83.89% 153.6 91.81% 121.43 0.1222 123.81%
I don't think WN/NK are killing them here, but it seems to be a route that simply doesn't support 3 carriers. The yield level overall is not good.
FLLRDU 0680 9E 003381 148.63 148.89 143.27 95.33% 076.0 74.14% 110.39 0.1623 88.70%
FLLRDU 0680 B6 029495 150.01 149.59 380.25 99.82% 101.3 83.20% 124.46 0.1830 100.00%
FLLRDU 0680 G7 007729 159.45 157.29 193.07 93.97% 070.2 88.80% 139.67 0.2054 112.22%
FLLRDU 0680 WN 024227 135.29 128.77 157.18 77.05% 143.8 89.11% 114.75 0.1688 92.20%
Really strong numbers here, especially against DL regional.
FLLRIC 0805 B6 026951 140.43 140.29 202.31 99.77% 107.7 70.28% 98.59 0.1225 100.00%
FLLRIC 0805 NK 021886 48.07 48.10 26.91 99.84% 146.5 82.06% 39.47 0.0490 40.04%
numbers dropped a little bit here. Not good yields for E90s. The move to A320 on one flight is definitely needed.
FLLORD 1182 AA 040488 162.65 158.72 195.15 89.21% 160.0 90.05% 142.93 0.1209 148.43%
FLLORD 1182 B6 024050 111.57 109.31 283.25 98.70% 150.0 88.10% 96.29 0.0815 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 082484 63.38 63.05 96.27 98.98% 192.6 85.12% 53.66 0.0454 55.73%
FLLORD 1182 UA 079759 161.41 159.65 240.50 97.82% 167.4 90.26% 144.10 0.1219 149.64%
This is probably a route they have to keep operating. They are probably bleeding money here, especially in a quarter without a lot of demand.
FLLSJU 1046 B6 122957 150.13 149.99 338.58 99.92% 140.8 87.36% 131.03 0.1253 100.00%
FLLSJU 1046 NK 044221 71.52 71.02 190.01 99.58% 212.4 91.70% 65.13 0.0623 49.71%
FLLSJU 1046 WN 064808 126.82 126.43 270.50 99.73% 147.5 94.51% 119.49 0.1142 91.19%
about the same as last quarter. They are surprisingly loosing a little pricing power here vs WN.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:56 pm

Finally before the weekend. One final tidbit if you are wondering what B6 really makes on. Here are some summer leisure routes. It's too bad they can find more of this out of JFK.

CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 10442 190.11 188.16 399.70 99.08% 100.0 80.32% 151.14
JFKACK 199 B6 47337 209.04 208.67 293.31 99.56% 100.0 70.86% 147.87
BOSACK 91 B6 17552 168.56 168.56 000.00 100.00% 100.0 72.23% 121.75
DCAACK 405 B6 5586 191.88 176.15 257.57 80.68% 100.0 73.50% 129.47
JFKMVY 173 B6 23449 222.45 222.14 707.00 99.94% 100.0 79.76% 177.17
BOSMVY 70 B6 10428 150.07 150.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 80.22% 120.38
 
Blueknows
Posts: 283
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:08 pm

Can everyone please stop this UA-B6 merger rumor. It’s not true and it’s getting annoying. Jetblue management have confirmed it’s just a rumor. They have no intention of merging with UA
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:00 pm

From this week's OAG thread and based on some checking of Google flights, looks like B6 is up to peak of 8 flights a day on BOS-PHL. Presumingly due to DL entrance.

some more fare data on the transcon markets. This will exclude the stuff I already posted. Which can be summarized as BOS-BUR had a tough opening, JFK-ONT did alright and the SLC routes strong in summer time.

I'm going through in overall yield (regardless of distance)

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM
JFKRNO 2411 B6 20530 262.64 261.97 335.92 99.10% 150.0 87.74% 229.84 0.0953
What a surprise. JFK-RNO was actually the tough performing route this quarter. It has been pretty bad all year, so this was shocking to say the least.
BOSSJC 2689 B6 21734 261.53 261.76 252.20 97.57% 150.1 87.73% 229.64 0.0854
This did even better in Q2. Undoubtedly one of the better non-premium transcons in the network.
JFKLGB 2465 B6 48097 250.51 249.48 298.27 97.88% 150.1 90.49% 225.76 0.0916
JFKBUR 2465 B6 29699 239.64 239.59 302.00 99.92% 150.0 90.41% 216.60 0.0879
I group these together. It would be interesting to see the results in Q4, since we'd get a whole quarter of double BUR flights. Either way, both are solidly profitable.
BOSSMF 2636 B6 16091 250.55 250.88 246.53 92.38% 150.0 85.82% 215.30 0.0817
BOSPDX 2537 B6 34785 239.29 239.25 242.31 98.73% 150.0 88.17% 210.96 0.0832
2 seasonal ex-BOS transcons that do well enough. For PDX, I do wonder if they can make it year round once they have A220. Otherwise, AS eats their lunch here with double daily year round service.
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24368 225.55 224.06 317.04 98.40% 150.3 92.13% 206.42 0.0931
Again, not a high yielding route, but has high LF and that's enough to make it profitable for at least in the summer time.
JFKOAK 2576 B6 23910 220.40 219.21 293.52 98.41% 150.0 92.14% 201.98 0.0784
JFKSMF 2521 B6 32002 223.34 222.49 274.74 98.38% 199.7 89.52% 199.17 0.0790
OAK was a real struggle in Q2 and SMF was better. But this quarter, SMF was all on A321, so it's understandable the yields are lower. SMF remains one of their best performing transcon across all year.
BOSLGB 2602 B6 29745 221.32 219.46 283.33 97.09% 150.0 87.74% 192.56 0.0740
Again, all the added LA area capacity was too much. LGB is best left to once a day.

Now looking at competitive routes
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKSJC 2569 AS 19537 208.96 207.12 295.49 97.91% 147.6 84.86% 175.77 0.0684 95.86%
JFKSJC 2569 B6 29696 208.99 208.38 310.79 99.41% 191.8 87.99% 183.35 0.0714 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 DL 27815 238.30 228.51 415.55 94.77% 170.7 89.51% 204.55 0.0796 111.56%
This one quite interesting. B6 and DL are both red-eye return flight, but AS has the worst yield despite flying the smallest plane and better schedule. A321s on this route should make this a profitable flight in for B6 especially given the red-eye return.
JFKPHX 2153 AA 112123 266.65 263.60 349.98 96.46% 160.7 89.55% 236.05 0.1096 129.73%
JFKPHX 2153 B6 23183 219.53 218.59 473.02 99.63% 150.5 83.24% 181.96 0.0845 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 DL 62673 259.04 257.64 323.64 97.88% 171.3 84.67% 218.15 0.1013 119.89%
Not great performance here in summer time. PHX generally performs well in winter season and Q3 was a bit of a struggle. It fell back to the bottom half in yield.
JFKPDX 2454 AS 26502 218.26 214.74 300.36 95.89% 161.0 89.48% 192.16 0.0783 102.50%
JFKPDX 2454 B6 23191 214.11 213.00 321.53 98.97% 150.6 88.01% 187.46 0.0764 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 DL 70202 279.56 276.06 348.78 95.20% 177.2 91.28% 251.98 0.1027 134.41%
Another tough route for B6 that's probably breaking even in summer time and bleeding money in winter time. This is also one of the worst timed flights in B6 network, so this can be acceptable flight even at lower yield. They have trimmed it to 4 weekly. That might help the winter performance.
BOSPHX 2300 AA 104914 264.08 262.02 288.58 92.24% 163.7 92.34% 241.96 0.1052
BOSPHX 2300 B6 23412 208.89 208.96 185.24 99.68% 150.0 85.29% 178.23 0.0775
PHX is a little tougher in summer time out of NYC/BOS. Still think it's a good candidate for mint, at least in winter time. I wonder if they can do a rotation where both JFK/BOS-PHX gets 1 mint flight from October to April and SEA gets another mint flight from May to September.
MCOLAX 2218 AA 108779 201.26 199.48 269.13 97.44% 166.7 89.37% 178.28 0.0804 124.36%
MCOLAX 2218 B6 24323 162.42 160.91 361.93 99.25% 150.0 89.10% 143.36 0.0646 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 DL 97517 206.61 203.37 244.56 92.12% 210.6 90.60% 184.24 0.0831 128.51%
MCOLAX 2218 UA 52283 190.70 190.33 193.92 89.78% 170.5 88.60% 168.64 0.0760 117.63%
The ultimate bloodbath that did not get much better even with AS and F9 both dropping out. Brutal numbers. I can't even see the legacies surviving at this kind of yields.
 
smflyer
Posts: 154
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:28 pm

whats the likelihood of a FLL-SMF route opening up? BOS/JFK-SMF seem to be chugging along fine.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1451
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:29 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Rumor going around LGB that B6 will cut flights down to 5 daily flights 1 BOS, 2 JFK, 1 AUS and 1 SLC.
Hopefully it's not true because besides WN I LuV me some JetBlue at LGB.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it's true.

Flyguy


Things are only going to get uglier for B6 at LGB what with WN starting 4x daily LGB-SJC on April 8th. Not only is that direct competition on another short haul route (and a very dubious one at that, considering the fact that B6 had already cut it before) but also additional connecting opportunities for pax to reach places like PDX, RNO, SEA and SLC. Cessation of all B6 service to Northern California certainly wouldn't surprise me, nor would the loss of LGB-LAS or LGB-Pacific Northwest given recent WN developments at LGB. The entire LGB station could very well be on the chopping block once B6 has planes that can operate SNA-BOS/JFK with viable payloads...
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1675
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:23 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Rumor going around LGB that B6 will cut flights down to 5 daily flights 1 BOS, 2 JFK, 1 AUS and 1 SLC.
Hopefully it's not true because besides WN I LuV me some JetBlue at LGB.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it's true.

Flyguy


Things are only going to get uglier for B6 at LGB what with WN starting 4x daily LGB-SJC on April 8th. Not only is that direct competition on another short haul route (and a very dubious one at that, considering the fact that B6 had already cut it before) but also additional connecting opportunities for pax to reach places like PDX, RNO, SEA and SLC. Cessation of all B6 service to Northern California certainly wouldn't surprise me, nor would the loss of LGB-LAS or LGB-Pacific Northwest given recent WN developments at LGB. The entire LGB station could very well be on the chopping block once B6 has planes that can operate SNA-BOS/JFK with viable payloads...


With DL about to double Down On BOS once WN moves to the B gates. I wouldn't be surprised if JetBlue pulled out of LGB completely and put those airBuses to into BOS.

LAX,BUR,ONT have SoCal covered.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3105
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:18 am

smflyer wrote:
whats the likelihood of a FLL-SMF route opening up? BOS/JFK-SMF seem to be chugging along fine.


Probably unlikely this year given the airbus delivery issues. I could see seasonal twice to 4 time weekly service open up down the road like BOS-SMF with A220. Although up to this point, they haven't tried as many transcon routes out of FLL. Their performance so far outside of LAX/SFO-FLL have not been very good.
 
speedbird2263
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:53 am

tphuang wrote:
smflyer wrote:
whats the likelihood of a FLL-SMF route opening up? BOS/JFK-SMF seem to be chugging along fine.


Probably unlikely this year given the airbus delivery issues. I could see seasonal twice to 4 time weekly service open up down the road like BOS-SMF with A220. Although up to this point, they haven't tried as many transcon routes out of FLL. Their performance so far outside of LAX/SFO-FLL have not been very good.


If I’m not mistaken, FLL-SEA was looked at and is a possible new route going forward in the medium term. I’d be interested to see how that would stack up along other current trans cons out of FLL.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
User avatar
FA9295
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:04 am

speedbird2263 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
smflyer wrote:
whats the likelihood of a FLL-SMF route opening up? BOS/JFK-SMF seem to be chugging along fine.


Probably unlikely this year given the airbus delivery issues. I could see seasonal twice to 4 time weekly service open up down the road like BOS-SMF with A220. Although up to this point, they haven't tried as many transcon routes out of FLL. Their performance so far outside of LAX/SFO-FLL have not been very good.


If I’m not mistaken, FLL-SEA was looked at and is a possible new route going forward in the medium term. I’d be interested to see how that would stack up along other current trans cons out of FLL.

FLL-SEA already has competition with Alaska and Delta seasonally. Yields probably wouldn't be very good.
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